SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI EAST INTO WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may impact a corridor from the lower Great Lakes region into the central/southern Plains today, as well as over eastern Colorado, and parts of Nevada/Utah. A relatively higher concentration of severe storms may develop from east-central Missouri east into western Indiana. Damaging wind gusts should be the main threat. ...Lower Great Lakes into the central/southern Plains... Thunderstorms are expected to intensify in the vicinity of a surface front extending from Lower MI southwest into the central high Plains. The area lies on the southern periphery of stronger mid-level flow, with around 25-35 kts of southwesterly flow near the frontal zone. Weak convectively-enhanced perturbations within the flow and pockets of better heating/destabilization should contribute to an environment favorable for a few clusters of storms capable of producing damaging winds. A relatively focused SLGT Risk has been added from east-central MO east into portions of western IN, where a higher concentration of storms with damaging wind potential may develop. ...Northeast CO/southeast WY vicinity... Despite rising heights, weak northwesterly flow aloft will combine with moist low-level southeasterly winds to produce sufficient shear to support isolated severe storms, including supercells this afternoon from southeast WY into northeast CO. Steep low- and mid-level lapse rates will result in a favorable environment for severe wind and hail with storms that develop and move southeast into the adjacent plains this evening. ...NV/UT... Strong heating will result in a zone of steep low-level lapse rates and at least modest CAPE values later today over portions of eastern NV and western UT. Large scale forcing remains weak beneath an upper-level ridge, but ample mid-level moisture will promote the development of scattered high-based thunderstorms. A few of these storms may produce strong/damaging winds. ..Bunting/Dean.. 07/15/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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