SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...FLORIDA...NORTHEAST...OH VALLEY...TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from the Tennessee Valley into the Northeast, as well as parts of the Southwest and also Florida, Monday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Northeast... An upper ridge will begin building into portions of the Mid Atlantic on Monday. On the periphery of the building ridge, at least one embedded shortwave trough may emerge out of the upper trough to the west and traverse portions of the OH Valley into New England. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon, as moderate buoyancy develops within a warm and very moist environment near/south of the effective warm front. While low/midlevel flow will not be particularly strong, veering wind profiles may support a few organized storms by afternoon, which could pose a risk of locally damaging wind, and perhaps a brief tornado near the surface boundary. ...Southwest... Another round of potentially strong convection is expected Monday afternoon and evening across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Instability and shear are expected to be somewhat less (compared to Sunday) across NM, though similar environmental conditions to previous days may persist across AZ. Initial higher-terrain development will again be capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail. The potential will exist for outflow-driven clusters to propagate into lower elevations with a threat of damaging wind. Some portion of this area may eventually require a Slight Risk upgrade, depending on observational and guidance trends as the event approaches. ...Florida... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from near the Bahamas to over the FL Peninsula on Monday, along the periphery of the western Atlantic upper ridge. Seasonably cool temperatures aloft (-10C to -12C at 500 mb) atop a warm/moist boundary layer will result in moderate to locally strong buoyancy by early afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the sea breeze across the eastern FL Peninsula and generally propagate westward, posing a threat of hail and locally damaging wind. ...TN Valley into the OH Valley... Along the eastern flank of the upper trough, a broad zone from the TN Valley into the OH Valley will be characterized by weak to locally moderate buoyancy, poor midlevel lapse rates, and modestly enhanced low-level flow and deep-layer shear. Clusters of loosely organized convection will be possible within this zone, with a primary threat of locally damaging wind. ..Dean.. 07/11/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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