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Saturday, July 10, 2021

SPC Jul 10, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST AZ INTO NM...PARTS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TX INTO THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from the southern Great Plains into the Ohio Valley and Northeast, as well as portions of the southern Rockies, on Sunday, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern is forecast to change little on Sunday. A broad upper trough is forecast to remain centered over the mid MS Valley vicinity, as multiple smaller-scale vorticity maxima move through the mean trough position. An upper ridge will remain over the Southwest, with one or more vorticity maxima potentially moving southwestward into the southern Rockies and lower deserts to the east/southeast of the ridge. A surface low is forecast to move into portions of the OH Valley/lower Great Lakes, as a warm front moves northward through the Mid Atlantic and a trailing cold front sags southward across portions of the southern Plains and mid MS Valley. ...Southern Rockies into southern AZ... Another round of convection is expected to develop Sunday afternoon across the higher terrain of central/western NM and potentially the Gila Mountains and vicinity in southeast AZ. SBCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg and modestly enhanced deep-layer shear will support a threat of localized downbursts and hail with the initial storms. Potential will again exist for outflow-driven clusters to move into the lower elevations, with the forecast flow regime favoring southeast AZ into southwest NM and far west TX for the greatest damaging wind threat. ...Southern Great Plains northeast into the TN Valley... Broken bands/clusters of convection will likely be ongoing from north TX northeast into portions of the TN Valley, generally in the vicinity of the effective cold front. Intensification of ongoing convection and/or new development along the boundary will be possible by early afternoon, within a moist and generally uncapped environment. Uncertainty remains regarding boundary placement and other mesoscale details, but the greatest instability is likely to develop near/south of the boundary across portions of north/central TX into the ArkLaMiss vicinity. Modestly enhanced midlevel flow near the base of the upper trough will support some potential for organized cells/clusters capable of locally damaging wind and hail. ...Ohio Valley into portions of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... Synoptic and mesoscale details also remain uncertain to the east of the upper trough from the OH Valley into parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast. However, guidance suggests that multiple embedded shortwave troughs will move across the region through the period, possibly accompanied by frontal waves along the surface boundary. Depending on the timing of these features, and the extent of destabilization that can occur, a few organized cells/clusters will be possible during the afternoon/evening. Locally damaging wind will be possible with the strongest storms. Low-level shear and SRH may also be sufficient to support the threat of a couple tornadoes, particularly near the warm front as it advances northward through the Mid Atlantic into parts of Pennsylvania. A Slight Risk upgrade may eventually be required depending on how uncertainties regarding destabilization and boundary placement are resolved. ..Dean.. 07/10/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov