SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Thu Jul 01 2021 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong and locally damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible Friday afternoon across the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A mid- to upper trough will slowly move east across the eastern U.S. on Friday. Meanwhile, upper ridging characterized by weak, more nebulous deep-layer flow will be maintained over the western and central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will extend south/southwest from a low over the Mid-Atlantic coast, stretching across the central Carolinas to the TN Valley and southern Plains early Friday. The front will progress south and east across the Southern Plains and Southeast during the period. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected as a warm and seasonally moist airmass will reside ahead of the front. ...Coastal Carolinas... The aforementioned cool front will push southeast across the Carolina Piedmont during the day. Veered surface flow ahead of the front over the coastal plain will likely result in the sea breeze being located near the immediate coastal counties. The southern fringe of stronger mid-level westerly flow (25-35 kt) moving through the base of the eastern U.S. trough, will facilitate a background flow environment supporting loosely organized multicell clusters. Model forecast soundings for the Grand Strand indicate temperatures will warm into the mid 80s with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE possible. Adequately steepened low-level lapse rates may support a couple of the stronger water-loaded downdrafts capable of localized wind damage with the stronger gusts (45-55 mph). This activity will likely move east of the beaches by the early evening. ..Smith.. 07/01/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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