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Monday, June 7, 2021

SPC Jun 7, 2021 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 07 2021 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MINNESSOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are expected to persist into the evening across east Texas and across the ArkLaTex region. Other severe storms are possible later this afternoon and evening across portions of the Dakotas into northwest Minnesota. ...Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley... Have expanded the severe probabilities northward into AR where mini supercells moving northward and interacting with warm front will continue to pose a risk for a few brief tornadoes this afternoon. Farther west the atmosphere remains strongly unstable across west central TX. There is a possibility that a few storms could develop along the western extension of the outflow boundary, and other isolated storms might initiate across west TX along lee trough and spread east. Any storms that develop will pose a risk for damaging wind and large hail. However, confidence in more than sparse to isolated storm coverage is relatively low, so will maintain MRGL risk category for this update. ...Northern Plains through northern MN... Previous forecast appears on track with only minor adjustments needed for this region. Storms are expected to develop along a southwest-northeast oriented boundary by late afternoon or early evening, posing a risk for damaging wind and large hail. ..Dial.. 06/07/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jun 07 2021/ ...Northeast/east Texas and ArkLaTex... A well-organized quasi-linear cluster is ongoing late this morning across north Texas as it transitions east/southeast of the DFW Metroplex. Although only modestly broken multi-layer cloud cover precedes this cluster of storms, this downstream air mass is very moist with temperatures warming through the 80s F. Cold pool/MCV-type influences should support continued forward propagation east-southeastward toward east Texas and perhaps western Louisiana, while additional development may occur this afternoon along its north edge eastward along an effective warm front/instability gradient extending across the ArkLaTex region. Moderate to strong buoyancy in the presence of adequately strong vertical shear, potentially aided by MCV influences and ample veering with height, will support well-organized storms capable of wind damage and possibly some tornado risk through afternoon/early evening. Accordingly, regional WSR-88D VWP data in proximity to the MCS/MCV are sampling enhanced low/mid-level winds, with KDYX recently sampling 50+ kt between 3-6 km AGL. Additionally, pending the disposition of outflow related to the ongoing storms as they shift east-southeastward, some potential may exist for redevelopment late this afternoon/early evening across east-central/east Texas in conjunction with the trailing remnant/modifying outflow and zone of differential heating. ...Dakotas/northern Minnesota... No changes needed for current outlook across this region. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms in clusters may develop late this afternoon, or more likely this evening, near the frontal segment northeast of the surface low, with the potential for large hail and strong-severe gusts. Large hail also is possible from elevated convection overnight behind any MCS cold pool that may develop. A conditional, low-end tornado threat also exists, the main uncertainty being whether any mature supercells can evolve away from more-clustered activity before too much nocturnal cooling occurs to stabilize the near-surface layer. ...Appalachians vicinity... A modestly enhanced belt of low/mid-level southwesterly winds will exist today across a broad region along/west of the Appalachians and nearby Ohio Valley. Although clouds are prevalent, a moist environment in conjunction with afternoon warming and a moist air mass could support some stronger storms with gusty winds. A couple of locally severe storms are conceivable across a broad region, but the potential for organized/sustained severe storms currently appears low. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov