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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, June 5, 2021

SPC Jun 5, 2021 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 05 2021 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms with gusty winds and hail will be possible across a portion of the upper Mississippi Valley as well as the southern Plains on Sunday. ...Upper Mississippi Valley region... A shortwave trough forecast to be over the Canadian Prairies and northern Rockies Sunday morning is expected to move quickly east-northeastward, as a cold front moves from the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient low-level moisture will support moderate buoyancy by afternoon ahead of the front. The strongest midlevel flow is forecast to generally trail the front, though some overlap of favorable instability and deep-layer shear may be in place along the front across northern MN by late afternoon. With the primary large-scale ascent expected to remain north of the border, considerable uncertainty remains regarding storm coverage in MN, but a few storms capable of severe hail and wind will be possible into early evening before boundary-layer cooling/stabilization increases later Sunday night. ...Southern Plains... The weak upper low over the southern Plains is forecast to move only very slowly eastward or northeastward on Sunday. West of the upper low, low-level southerlies veering to northerly/northwesterly flow aloft will favor effective shear of 25-35 kt across portions of the southern High Plains, despite generally weak wind speeds throughout the troposphere. This shear, in conjunction with moderate to locally strong buoyancy, will result in a conditional risk of severe thunderstorms across much of the southern High Plains. However, with large-scale ascent expected to remain limited, the location and coverage of any surface-based convection within this regime remain highly uncertain. An isolated supercell or two cannot be ruled out, though a somewhat more likely scenario is for a cluster of storms to develop near a weak lee trough across eastern NM and spread southeastward with time during the evening. Elevated convection may also develop Sunday night across southwest OK/northwest TX as the low-level jet increases. The strongest storms would be capable of large hail and locally severe wind gusts. ...ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley... To the east of the upper low from the ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley, multiple rounds of antecedent convection create considerable uncertainty regarding convective evolution on Sunday. However, it is possible that effective shear will be sufficient for a few thunderstorm clusters capable of locally damaging wind gusts, should substantial destabilization occur. Confidence remains too low to delineate any probabilities in this area at this time. ..Dean.. 06/05/2021 Read more LIVE: