SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CHESAPEAKE BAY VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States Thursday afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic states... A mid/upper-level trough over Ontario/Great Lakes will move southeast to the central Appalachians during the period. Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning over the middle/upper OH Valley eastward into the Alleghenies. As the airmass to the east of this activity heats/destabilizes during the late morning into the afternoon, storms are expected to preferentially develop on the eastern outflow. Increasing large-scale ascent will likely favor scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing from eastern PA southwestward into the central Appalachians by mid afternoon. As this activity moves into the Chesapeake Bay vicinity with 35-40 kt in the 700-500 mb layer, richer low-level moisture and steepened 0-2 km lapse rates may lead to a slightly greater concentration of 50-65 mph gusts capable of widely scattered wind damage. The severe risk will likely lessen with southward extent across far southeast VA where flow fields will be weaker. ...South-central High Plains... Moist profiles in wake of overnight or early-day convection and considerable cloudiness will likely limit the degree of heating than would otherwise occur. A belt of modest westerly mid- to high-level flow on the northern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone may result in a zone of modest deep-layer shear atop weak surface flow with an easterly component. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding convective influence from today through early Thursday, and sub-par 700-500 mb lapse rates will also act to limit overall storm vigor such that a less-than-5 percent probability highlight is maintained this outlook update. ..Smith.. 06/30/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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