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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, June 29, 2021

SPC Jun 29, 2021 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States Thursday afternoon. ...Synopsis... The upper pattern early Thursday is forecast to consist of central CONUS ridging flanked by a nondescript weak flow regime over the western CONUS and upper troughing over the northern half of the eastern CONUS. The upper ridging over the central CONUS is expected to remain in place throughout the period while a weak convectively induced vorticity maximum over the Great Basin drifts northward/northeastward. In contrast to the relatively stagnant pattern west of the MS River, upper troughing initially extending from Quebec through the Upper Midwest will shift southeastward as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base over the Upper Midwest and much of the OH Valley. As this occurs, low to mid-level flow will strengthen from the OH Valley through the Mid-Atlantic States. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the OH Valley early Thursday, along and ahead of a weak, southward-moving cold front. Strengthening mid-level flow and diurnal heating will likely result in a gradual intensification of these storms as they move gradually southward/eastward. Current expectation is for the front (and maybe a convectively induced vorticity maximum) to reach the Mid-Atlantic states near peak heating. Resulting moderate buoyancy coupled with strengthening low to mid-level winds may support a few strong to severe storms. ..Mosier.. 06/29/2021 Read more LIVE:
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