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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Saturday, June 26, 2021

SPC Jun 26, 2021 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon from east-central Missouri to parts of Lower Michigan, and over parts of the southern High Plains. Damaging winds and perhaps hail are possible in those areas, along with a tornado or two over the Illinois-Michigan corridor. ...MO to MI... A convectively aided baroclinic zone is shown on recent surface analysis from south-central MO into central IL - then northeastward into lower MI. Relatively strong heating is occurring along this boundary, and ample moisture is present to the south. This will aid in moderate MLCAPE values and the development of scattered thunderstorms along this entire corridor later today. Low and mid-level wind fields are southwesterly and relatively uni-directional, but are strong enough to pose a risk of some convective organization. Bowing structures as well as occasional supercell storms are expected. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat, but sufficient shear will be present to pose some risk of a tornado or two as well. The severe threat should diminish by mid-evening as nocturnal cooling ensues. ...NM/TX/OK... Strong daytime heating is occurring across portions of west TX/OK, where widespread upper 60s and lower 70s dewpoints are present. Forecast soundings suggest the air mass is not strongly capped. This will aid in the development of scattered clusters of thunderstorms this afternoon along pre-existing boundaries over west TX and southwest OK, and off the higher terrain of northeast NM. Low-level winds are relatively weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear and moderate CAPE may help a few storms to become severe with a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail. ..Hart/Moore.. 06/26/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov