SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are likely from the Southwest across the southern Plains into much of the Ohio Valley on Monday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridge anchoring the northwest CONUS/southwest Canada omega block is expected to persist throughout the day Monday, even as a shortwave trough progresses through its western periphery. Upper troughing is forecast to be in place from Ontario southwestward into NM early Monday, with little progression and modest dampening anticipated throughout the period. Subtropical ridging across the eastern CONUS is also expected to remain in place. Overall, a relatively stagnant upper pattern is current forecast. Confluent mid-level flow will foster a belt of slightly stronger southwesterly winds aloft from the Ozark Plateau through the Upper Great Lakes. Some modest surface convergence is also possible along a diffuse/remnant cold front just south/east of the belt of stronger flow aloft. This convergence will likely result in scattered thunderstorm development amid the moist air mass in place. Scattered thunderstorms are also anticipated across the southern Plains and Southwest. Despite several areas with scattered to numerous thunderstorms, weak vertical shear will preclude severe thunderstorms except on an isolated/localized basis, dictated predominantly by mesoscale factors. Predictability of these mesoscale factors, including the location of outflow boundaries and pockets of stronger diurnal heating, is low at this forecast range, precluding the confidence needed to introduce any severe probabilities. ..Mosier.. 06/26/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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