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Friday, June 25, 2021

SPC Jun 25, 2021 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon into tonight from portions of the southern/central High Plains to the Midwest. Damaging wind gusts, large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible. ...Eastern Kansas to Midwest including IL/IN/OH/Lower MI... Multiple corridors of storm development and intensification are expected across the region by mid/late afternoon, influenced by multiple MCVs as well as an outflow-reinforced effective front. Damaging thunderstorm winds and a couple of tornadoes should the primary risks, with severe hail also a possibility particularly across the Kansas/Missouri portion of the Slight Risk. This is where buoyancy will be more robust with deep-layer/low-level shear are expected to be maximized along the modifying boundary across eastern Kansas into western Missouri. Some initial supercells capable of all hazards, including a tornado risk, will be possible prior to storm mergers occurring with gradual upscale growth during the evening with an increasing damaging wind potential. Other severe storms may develop by mid/late afternoon along the residual boundary across south-central Illinois into Indiana. Although instability is a bit uncertain given persistent convection/cloud cover at midday, a late-afternoon clearing trend in conjunction with MCV-related enhanced wind profiles could support some supercells/sustained multicells within a corridor across northeast Indiana/northwest Ohio into Lower Michigan. Presuming sufficient destabilization, a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds could occur. ...South-central High Plains including TX/OK Panhandles... Cyclonically curved westerlies will influence the region with a relatively strong belt of mid/high-level winds, particularly by late June standards across the southern High Plains. Effective shear magnitudes will likely exceed 40+ kt across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into eastern Colorado/western Kansas coincident with storm development/maturation, which is expected near the front and a sharpening dry line/lee trough, in addition to low-level upslope flow across eastern Colorado. Some high-based supercells capable of localized very large hail may occur late this afternoon/early evening prior to storm mergers and the probable evolution into multiple eastward-moving clusters this evening, which would include an increasing damaging wind potential. ...Southern Nebraska... A mid-level vorticity maxima/remnant MCV is noted across southwest NE in morning GOES imagery. Persistent convection is noted with this MCV, likely aided by synoptic ascent within the left-exit region of an upper-level jet to the south/southwest. To the east of this feature, an outflow boundary from overnight convection is advancing north per recent surface observations. Clearing skies and dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s along the boundary will support destabilization through the afternoon hours. Most guidance indicates that convection associated with this MCV will increase through the afternoon and propagate eastward across central/southern NE along the stalled boundary. Elongated hodographs with favorable deep-layer shear will support organized convection with clusters of storms likely; one or two bowing segments are possible if convection takes on a linear mode. ..Guyer/Moore.. 06/25/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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