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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Friday, June 25, 2021

SPC Jun 25, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0806 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of severe thunderstorm winds including potential for a few significant wind gusts is expected this evening into tonight, especially from Kansas through northern and central Missouri. A few instances of large hail also remain possible this evening. A couple of tornadoes might also occur, mainly from northeast Kansas into northern Missouri and southern Iowa. ...Central Plains through the Middle Mississippi Valley region... Two primary areas of thunderstorm development are occurring this evening. The first is with cluster of storms in progress from far southeast NE into northwest MO, northeast KS and southern IA. This activity developed earlier during the afternoon, and is associated with a corridor of ascent where a strengthening south southwesterly low-level jet is interacting with a diffuse convectively reinforced stationary front. This boundary extends from southeast and central MO northwestward to a weak surface low in northeast KS. A surface pre-frontal trough extends southwestward from the low into south southwest KS. While effective bulk shear around 40 kt and low-level hodographs along the cooler side of the stationary front has been sufficient for a few supercells, relatively weak/modest flow between 500 and 300 mb has resulted in storms trending toward HP, and activity has recently shown a tendency to evolve into lines and clusters. This trend is expected to continue into the evening. Potential exists for a well organized MCS capable of significant severe gusts to develop and spread southeast through northeast KS and MO supported by a 40-50 kt low-level jet and strong instability with MUCAPE from 2500-3000 J/kg. The second area of thunderstorm development is with high-based storms spreading east through CO and western KS. Additional storms may also develop farther east along the trough from southwest through central KS. These storms may congeal into one or more forward-propagating clusters as they spread eastward through the unstable environment present across Kansas supported by moderate instability, easterly low-level flow and a strengthening southerly low-level jet. Fairly large temperature-dewpoint spreads across central KS are also supportive of efficient cold pool production. Swaths of damaging wind and a few instances of large hail will be the main threats. ..Dial.. 06/25/2021 Read more LIVE:
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)