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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Thursday, June 24, 2021

SPC Jun 24, 2021 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of severe weather (including destructive hail, severe wind and a few tornadoes) is possible today into tonight near the Kansas/Nebraska line, eastward over northern Missouri. ...Northeast KS into northwest MO... A large MCS is moving slowly eastward this morning across northern MO into central IL. The outflow boundary from this system extends from west-central KS into central MO. Very moist and unstable air is present to the south of the boundary, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and potential MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg later today. This boundary is expected to lift northward this afternoon to roughly the I-70 corridor of northeast KS (although the ongoing convection over southeast KS lends some uncertainty to afternoon boundary position). Scattered supercell storms are expected to develop in vicinity of the boundary by late afternoon, tracking eastward into northwest MO this evening. Model guidance suggests that the low-level jet will strengthen considerably during the evening, with forecast soundings showing very favorable hodographs for supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Considered adding at 10% tornado threat area, but will defer to 20z update when eventual position of the boundary is better defined. Storms are expected to congeal into a bowing complex through the evening, affecting portions of north-central MO with the threat of rather widespread damaging winds and hail. ...Western and Central KS... A well-defined surface low is forecast to become established over central KS today, with considerable wrap-around low-level moisture in place over much of western and northern KS. This will likely lead to scattered intense thunderstorms later today. Very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main threats. Have adjusted the orientation of the SLGT/ENH areas to better reflect the surface low position, and where CAM consensus shows highest confidence in storm coverage. ...Eastern NM/TX Panhandle... A deeply mixed boundary layer will develop this afternoon over much of eastern NM and the TX Panhandle, where scattered high-based thunderstorms are forecast. Locally gusty/damaging wind gusts are possible in the strongest cores. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/24/2021 Read more LIVE: