SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms appear possible from parts of the southern/central Plains to the mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest and Great Lakes on Saturday. ...Southern/Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest and Great Lakes... A positively tilted upper trough should move slowly eastward across the northern/central Plains towards the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Saturday. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will likely persist over portions of the southern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley/Midwest and Great Lakes through much of the period. A weak surface low initially over IA and vicinity should develop northeastward slowly through the day. A cold front should extend southwestward from this low across the central/southern Plains. Storms will probably be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of the central Plains and mid MS Valley where a southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to be located. With time, renewed convective development should occur Saturday afternoon along/south of the length of the front. One or more convectively reinforced outflow boundaries from prior storms south of the synoptic front may also provide a focus for convection. Even though low-level flow should be veered to a generally southwesterly direction across the warm sector, enough veering/strengthening of the wind profile with height should support weak to moderate deep-layer shear and some storm organization. Multicells and clusters will probably develop fairly quickly and subsequently move east-southeastward given the linear nature of the front and possible outflow boundaries. Both isolated damaging winds and severe hail appear possible. There remains considerable uncertainty in the placement and overall coverage of storms Saturday morning, and their influence on afternoon destabilization remains unclear. At this point, the best potential for moderate to locally strong instability to be realized may occur from parts of the mid MS Valley northeastward to the southern Great Lakes vicinity. If current model trends regarding forecast instability continue, then greater severe probabilities may need to be included from parts of pars of central/eastern MO across IL/IN and into southern Lower MI. Regardless, there is too much uncertainty regarding prior convection to introduce higher severe probabilities yet. ..Gleason.. 06/24/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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