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Wednesday, June 2, 2021

SPC Jun 2, 2021 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Jun 02 2021 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail will be possible this afternoon over parts of central and west Texas. Other strong storms may affect the Mid-South to lower Ohio Valley. ...West Texas... Storms have developed within a strongly unstable airmass along and outflow boundary in the Midland vicinity. Given the modest deep-layer shear, this activity is likely to grow upscale with time and pose a more organized wind threat as a small complex moves southeast along the boundary later this afternoon. A 15% wind area was added along and near the outflow boundary. Elsewhere the outlook remains unchanged. ..Wendt.. 06/02/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Wed Jun 02 2021/ ...TX... A weakening MCS over north-central TX has resulted in an outflow boundary extending westward into west TX. This boundary should wash out through the afternoon as strong heating across the region diminishes the low-level convergence and lift. Nevertheless, the subtle remnants of this boundary may provide a focus for isolated thunderstorm development later today. Other storms will likely move into west TX off the higher terrain of eastern NM, and along a dryline over southwest TX. All of this activity will move into a region of steep midlevel lapse rates and ample CAPE, but modest deep-layer shear. The result is likely to be a few slow-moving intense storms with a risk of large hail. Given this forecast scenario, have added a SLGT risk for the area. ...MS to KY... Similar to yesterday over the Arklatex, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon in vicinity of a slow-moving shortwave trough moving across the mid/lower MS Valley. Rich low-level moisture and pockets of heating will result in some areas of MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. Relatively weak winds in the lowest few km suggest that most storms will remain disorganized. However, shear profiles are just strong enough to support occasional transient supercell structures, capable of locally gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov