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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, June 19, 2021

SPC Jun 19, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms will continue this evening and parts of the overnight hours across the Ohio Valley and mid Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary concern, although an isolated tornado remains possible, especially across southern Indiana/Ohio into northern Kentucky. ...01z Update... Convection that developed across central IN/western OH has been slow to organize into an MCS, likely due to deep westerly flow and weak low-level convergence. However, over the last hour or so, scattered supercells have begun to conglomerate across southeast IN/southwest OH. This activity is handled differently by several high-res members of the HREF. It is becoming increasingly likely that an organized cluster should propagate south of the OH River where ample buoyancy resides for the maintenance of this activity. For these reasons have adjusted severe probabilities a bit south to account for this southward-moving cluster. Upstream, early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough digging southeast across northern MN. This digging feature will maintain deep west-northwesterly flow across IA into the OH Valley. Substantial agitated cu field, with weak showers (indicative of steep lapse rates) is noted along this corridor. As LLJ strengthens across northern MO into central IL after sunset there should be renewed intense convection develop. No appreciable changes expected for this region. Elsewhere, tropical feature south of the LA coast is lifting north in line with earlier thinking. Ample shear extends into the central Gulf States such that low severe probabilities will be maintained. ..Darrow.. 06/19/2021 Read more LIVE: