Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper trough is forecast to amplify as it moves eastward from the central to eastern CONUS early next week. A surface cold front is also expected to develop eastward across these regions in the same time frame. Plentiful low-level moisture should exist ahead of the front, and low/mid-level flow associated with the upper trough should be strong enough to support some storm organization. Severe potential should focus with storms along the front on both Day 4/Monday and Day 5/Tuesday before it finally clears the East Coast. At this point, there is still too much uncertainty in the timing and amplitude of the upper trough and related surface features to include 15% severe probabilities for either day. In the wake of the cold front, low-level moisture will probably return northward across the Plains from the middle to latter portion of next week. Upper ridging may be centered over the Rockies and adjacent High Plains around Day 6/Wednesday. Any shortwave troughs that may suppress this upper ridge and provide lift to aid convective development across the Plains and Midwest are not well resolved in medium-range guidance at this time, suggesting low pattern predictability. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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