SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MN...SOUTHERN WI...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF IA/IL... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected tonight across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, from central/southern Wisconsin and southern Minnesota into northern portions of Iowa and Illinois. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts exceeding 75 mph, and hail up to the size of baseballs will be possible. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... Severe thunderstorms with a history of significant severe hail and damaging gusts have developed since 23z, and latest mesoanalysis indicates moderate MLCAPE remains in place, along with 45-55 kts of effective shear. Low-level warm advection should increase across the SLGT/ENH portion of the risk area as a low-level jet strengthens overnight. A subtle impulse embedded within westerly mid-level flow will also contribute to ascent. Ongoing severe storms will continue to pose a damaging wind and large hail risk this evening and overnight, with significant severe hail remaining possible given supercell storm structures and steep mid-level lapse rates. Increasing storm coverage and eventual evolution into a bowing complex later this evening/overnight is anticipated, with a risk for significant severe wind gusts. A tornado or two will also remain possible with both supercell and bowing QLCS structures. ..Bunting.. 06/18/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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