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Thursday, June 17, 2021

SPC Jun 17, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and strong to damaging winds will be possible tonight, mainly across parts of southern Minnesota into Iowa and northern Missouri. ...Upper Midwest... An upper high will remain centered over the Four Corners region tonight, with upper ridging extending northeastward from this high across the central/northern High Plains and Upper Midwest. A shortwave trough moving eastward over the Canadian Prairie provinces will act to suppress the upper ridge to some extent across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest overnight. A cold front extends southwestward from a weak surface low centered over eastern SD, while a warm front extends southeastward from the low across IA and northern MO. A few elevated storms have developed this evening across far southwestern MN and northwestern IA in a weak low-level warm/moist advection regime. This activity may continue to pose an isolated threat for marginally severe hail in the short term as it moves slowly southeastward along an elevated instability gradient. See Mesoscale Discussion 894 for more details. Rather warm low to mid-level temperatures and a corresponding strong cap will likely inhibit convective initiation along/near the cold front in SD and much of NE (reference the 00Z ABR sounding and its +16.3 C 700 mb temperature). Otherwise, additional convection may develop across parts of southern MN and northern IA this evening and tonight as a modest (25-35 kt) southwesterly low-level jet shifts eastward across this region. Most of this activity is expected to remain elevated, but weak to moderate MUCAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear should exist for any semi-discrete cells to pose some severe hail risk. With fairly uniform northwesterly mid/upper-level flow, storms may have a tendency to congeal into a small cluster over IA tonight. Isolated strong to damaging winds will be possible if this upscale growth occurs, as steep mid-level lapse rates would aid downdraft accelerations. Regardless, the overall severe hail/wind threat should remain rather isolated with modest large-scale ascent aloft forecast. ..Gleason.. 06/17/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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