SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Strong wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the western to central Gulf Coast and in the northern Rockies. ...Southern Atlantic Seaboard... Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough over the southern Appalachians with a plume of mid-level moisture extending east-northeastward across northern Florida, southern Georgia and eastern South Carolina. At the surface, a cold front is advancing southeastward across the eastern Carolinas and southern Georgia. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along and just ahead of the front. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are generally in the lower to mid 70s F, which is contributing to moderate instability. MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, a 50 to 60 kt mid-level speed max is analyzed by the RAP across western south Carolina. This feature will enhance deep-layer shear this evening making severe thunderstorm development possible. The greatest potential for wind damage and hail will be across eastern South Carolina as the exit region of the mid-level jet passes through early this evening. Further south, a marginal wind damage threat may exist across northern Florida where moderate instability and steep low-level lapse rates are present, according to the RAP. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... A very moist and unstable airmass is currently located from the Texas Coastal Plains east-northeastward to the central Gulf Coast. Surface dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 70s F. The RAP is analyzing moderate to strong instability along this corridor, with MLCAPE estimated in the 2000 to 3000 J/Kg range. In addition, steep low-level lapse rates are present, which will make marginally severe wind gusts a possibility for another hour or two. The greatest potential for strong wind gusts may be in far southeast Texas where a cluster of strong thunderstorms is ongoing. ...Northern Rockies... The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest, with a 60 to 75 kt mid-level jet moving through the base of the trough. Thunderstorms have developed along the leading edge of large-scale ascent from northern Idaho into northwest Montana. Convective coverage should increase this evening as the shortwave trough continues to approach the northern Rockies. Although instability is weak across the northern Rockies, deep-layer shear is very strong with the RAP estimating 0-6 km shear in the 70 to 85 kt range. This could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts and hail this evening. ..Broyles.. 06/16/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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