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Tuesday, June 15, 2021

SPC Jun 15, 2021 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds and large hail will be possible for a few hours this afternoon across the coastal plain of the Carolinas. ...Coastal plain of NC/SC this afternoon... Downstream from an amplified ridge over the Rockies, and midlevel shortwave trough will move over the central/southern Appalachians this morning and reach the Atlantic coast this evening. This midlevel trough will be preceded by a surface cold front that will cross the coastal plain of the Carolinas this afternoon, and provide a focus for thunderstorm development. West of morning convection, pre-frontal surface heating and a moist boundary layer will result in large buoyancy by midday (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg), while effective bulk shear will increase to the 30-40 kt range by early afternoon when storm initiation is likely along and just ahead of the front from eastern NC into coastal SC. Straight hodographs, the large CAPE, and DCAPE near 1000 J/kg will favor organized/splitting cells capable of producing damaging gusts and large hail for a few hours this afternoon, prior to the convection shifting offshore. ...Gulf coast this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by early-mid afternoon along a slow-moving cold front and sea breeze boundaries from south GA/north FL westward along the Gulf coast to TX. Vertical shear will be weak with a northerly component to midlevel flow, but large buoyancy (MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg) and DCAPE near 1000 J/kg will support occasional downbursts with isolated strong/damaging outflow winds. ...Northern High Plains this afternoon/evening... Isolated strong-severe storms persisted overnight in a warm advection regime from southeast MT to western NE, though this convection is expected to dissipate later this morning as warm advection weakens. Thereafter, primarily hot/dry conditions are expected across the northern High Plains under the influence of the strong midlevel high near the Four Corners. Surface mixing could be deep enough to remove convective inhibition and allow isolated storm development immediately east of the higher terrain, but storm coverage is expected to remain rather sparse. Will maintain a narrow Marginal risk corridor to reflect this conditional threat for strong outflow gusts and hail. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 06/15/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov