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Tuesday, June 15, 2021

SPC Jun 15, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible in parts of the Mid Atlantic this evening. Marginally severe wind gust may occur across parts of the Carolinas. Hail and strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of the Texas Hill Country and from the central High Plains to the northern Rockies. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas... Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front is located from western New York southwestward into western Pennsylvania. A moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the 60s F, is in place ahead of the front across much of the Mid Atlantic region. Thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of the front from West Virginia east-northeastward into southeastern Pennsylvania. This convection will continue to move eastward across northern Virginia, Maryland and New Jersey this evening. The RAP is analyzing moderate instability across much of the Mid Atlantic with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 k shear in the 45 to 50 kt range suggesting that a wind damage potential will continue this evening. The wind damage threat will be maximized along the leading edge of the stronger multicell line segments. ...Central and Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge is currently located from the central Rockies northward into the northern High Plains. At the surface, a narrow corridor of maximized low-level moisture is in place from far eastern Colorado north-northwestward into eastern Wyoming and southeast Montana. Along this corridor, the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This combined with 35 to 45 kt of 0-6 km shear, evident on regional WSR-88D VWPs, should support a marginal wind damage and hail threat this evening. Cell coverage should remain very isolated due to warm air aloft. The greatest convective coverage could be across eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska, if the storm cluster in northeast Wyoming can remain intact as it interacts with a belt of enhanced low-level flow later this evening. ...Northern Rockies... Water vapor imagery shows south-southwesterly mid-level flow in place across the northwestern U.S. A shortwave trough appears to be embedded in the flow across the Pacific Northwest. This trough is associated with strong large-scale ascent, which is supporting thunderstorm development in parts of Washington and Oregon. As convection develops further to the east this evening, it will encounter stronger instability in far eastern Washington, northern Idaho and northwestern Montana. This combined with strong deep-layer shear will support a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/15/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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