SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated storms may produce hail or strong wind gusts over northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will continue to build over the Rockies and Plains with upper high centered over NM. Meanwhile, a weak upper trough will linger over the Mid Atlantic and Southeast, with 20-30 kt northerly winds at 500 mb across the MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the central Plains, with easterly winds aiding westward moisture transport into NM and CO. To the east, a weak trough will develop over GA and SC, and may provide a focus for daytime thunderstorms. Various clusters of storms are also expected during the day from Lower MI into TN, and a few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out there. ...Northeast NM into southeast CO... Isolated storms are expected to form over the higher terrain, where lapse rates will be steep and CIN removed from heating. Easterly low-level flow will aid destabilization as cells move southeast across the Plains. Storms will likely be slow moving as winds aloft will be light. Though winds will be light, they will veer with height, and may support brief supercell characteristics at times. Ample moisture and steep lapse rates will favor hail production, and gusty outflow winds may produce localized wind damage. Although areas farther east into TX will be very unstable, capping near 700 mb will likely preclude storms from moving too far east. ...Lower MI...IL...IN...western KY... Models indicate a weak perturbation may round the upper ridge and move southeast across the area on Saturday. Weak surface convergence with a front is also indicated from Lower MI into IL, and the air mass will be moist and unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE during the afternoon. While shear will remain weak, scattered storms could produce localized, marginally severe gusts, especially if a prominent cluster can develop and propagate southward. If model trends continue to show better clustering of cells, a Marginal Risk may be needed in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 06/11/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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