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Friday, June 11, 2021

SPC Jun 11, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0810 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected tonight across much of the northern and central Plains, especially across far eastern Montana, the Dakotas, and Nebraska. All severe hazards are possible, including very large hail, wind gusts above 70 mph, and a few tornadoes. ...Northern/central Plains... 00z mesoanalysis depicts a complex surface pattern featuring a surface low over east-central MT, with a warm front extending east into central MN and a cold front extending southwest into central WY. Supercell thunderstorms have developed just east of the surface low, including a confirmed tornado earlier in McKenzie County ND. Strong instability (MLCAPE 2500-3500 J/kg) remains in place east of a surface trough, in addition to ample deep-layer shear averaging 35-50 kts. In the short term supercells will continue to pose a risk for all severe hazards this evening. A strong mid-level trough, approaching from the northern Rockies, will increase large-scale forcing for ascent/mid-level cooling this evening through the overnight hours, and severe thunderstorms are expected to develop southward in advance of an eastward-moving cold front. Rapid upscale growth will result in damaging winds becoming the primary severe hazard, with some significant severe gusts anticipated. Large to very large hail will also remain possible, in addition to a continuing risk for a few tornadoes with both supercell structures and line-embedded circulations. Elsewhere, have trimmed the Marginal Risk over northern WI, and removed Marginal Risk areas over the Carolinas, where the isolated severe risk should continue to diminish over the next hour or so (refer to MCD 912 for more information). Marginal Risks were also removed over the ArkLaMiss region and southwest TX based on current trends and the onset of nocturnal cooling. ..Bunting.. 06/11/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov