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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, June 10, 2021

SPC Jun 10, 2021 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts may occur Friday from northeast Kansas into southwest Iowa. ..Synopsis and Discussion... A compact, negative-tilt shortwave trough will move quickly out of the Dakotas and into Manitoba by 21Z with minor height rises across the Plains. At the surface, a cold front (possibly reinforced with outflow) may extend roughly over the eastern Dakotas, eastern NE and western KS Friday morning, with 70s F dewpoints ahead of the NE/KS portion of the front. Ongoing storms are likely Friday morning from ND to NE, with subsidence likely dissipating the northern storms by midday. Farther south, stronger instability will exist, and with less subsidence. Therefore, a line or cluster of storms may persist throughout the day, likely translating southwestward into northeastern KS by late afternoon. While there will be little large-scale support for ascent due to the upper ridge, low-level convergence along the front/outflow boundary and robust boundary-layer theta-e may support a few severe storms capable of localized wind damage. Elsewhere, a dryline will exist over west TX, as the cold front plunges south across the TX Panhandle. Hot temperatures will mix out CIN near the boundary, and a brief, isolated storm or two is possible, though the probability of severe appears too low for a categorical upgrade for gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 06/10/2021 Read more LIVE:
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