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Sunday, May 9, 2021

SPC May 9, 2021 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Sun May 09 2021 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS/ARKLAMISS AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... 

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of central/east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes all appear possible. Other more isolated strong/severe storms may occur across the southern High Plains. ...Central/East Texas to Mid-South/Middle Tennessee... Ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front, the remnants of an MCS continue to persist with south-southeastward outflow advancement across the Ozarks early this morning. With the greater reservoir of low-level moisture/instability to the southwest of this remnant MCS, some questions exist regarding the magnitude of the severe risk particularly with northeastward extent later today, especially to the N/NE of western Tennessee. 

A belt of relatively strong/low-amplitude westerlies will influence the region, with a very strong low-level jet early today expected to diurnally weaken but still remain relatively strong from the ArkLaMiss into the Tennessee Valley within the prefrontal environment. 

On the southern fringes of early day MCS-residual outflow/cloud cover, cloud breaks will contribute to moderate/locally strong destabilization from central and east/northeast Texas into southern/eastern Arkansas and portions of western Tennessee/northern Mississippi. Increasing surface-based deep convective development is anticipated near the southeastward-advancing cold front as well as in vicinity of remnant outflow/zones of differential heating across the Mid-South. 

Forecast soundings suggest initial supercells are likely ahead of the front as surface-6km bulk shear will be on the order of 40 kt where MLCAPE values are likely to exceed 2000 J/kg. Local hail algorithms suggest 2+ inch stones are possible with the strongest storms, which will be most probable within the first couple of hours of convective development. 

A couple of tornadoes could also occur along with a more prevalent damaging wind potential by early evening. ...Raton Mesa vicinity/Southern High Plains... An embedded low-amplitude shortwave trough appears to be crossing the southern Great Basin early today, and is likely to cross the Four Corners vicinity this afternoon in tandem with strengthening westerlies aloft. Low-level upslope trajectories will evolve during the day within the post-frontal regime. Destabilization will be limited progressively eastward across the High Plains, with the main zone of destabilization/thunderstorm development expected this afternoon in the vicinity of the Raton Mesa. A few instances of severe hail/wind may occur late this afternoon into evening. ..Guyer/Goss.. 05/09/2021 

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