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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Thursday, May 27, 2021

SPC May 28, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue from parts of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Significant damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... Elongated MCS, oriented WSW-ENE across central OK into northern AR, is gradually sagging south as outflow surges ahead of the primary convection by 10-20 miles. Convective mode is primarily multi-cellular with merged clusters responsible for very heavy rain and strong winds. However, one strong supercell has recently matured along the leading convection over McIntosh County OK. This storm is digging east-southeast at 25-30kt and damaging wind threat could increase if a bow-type structure ultimately evolves with this activity. Otherwise, more isolated severe threat extends across the TX South Plains to near the Mexican border. Large hail is noted with most of these slow-moving storms and this activity should linger through late evening as favorable southerly inflow continues across this portion of TX. 00z sounding from MAF exhibited steep lapse rates with strong surface-6km shear and modest buoyancy. This supports longer-lived slow-moving supercells across this portion of TX. Downstream, FWD sounding is quite capped, but conditionally unstable with steep lapse rates. MCS over OK should continue surging toward northeast TX where weaker capping is observed, per SHV/LZK soundings. ..Darrow.. 05/28/2021 Read more LIVE: