SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0814 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and severe winds along with a couple tornadoes remain possible this evening from the Colorado/New Mexico Front Range into the adjacent central and southern High Plains including eastern Colorado, eastern New Mexico, and southwest Nebraska. ...High Plains... A nearly stationary front extended from northeast MN southwest into northeast/central CO with isolated strong/severe thunderstorms, including supercells and line segments/clusters, in progress near and south of the High Plains portion of the front from eastern CO southward into eastern NM. The downstream environment may remain supportive of an isolated severe risk in the short term with MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg across eastern CO/western NE, and locally higher across eastern NM. Latest hi-res guidance suggests a couple of clusters/line segments may continue through this evening across the High Plains with a continued risk for primarily severe hail and winds. Elsewhere, have re-oriented a small MRGL risk over north TX for the risk of a brief spin-up circulation with the area of showers/isolated thunder. Recent KFWS velocity data continues to show transient rotation with a few of the heavier precipitation areas, and VWP data sampled 0-3 KM SRH of 130 m2/s2. At least some potential for a brief tornado may exist through the remainder of this evening. ..Bunting.. 05/23/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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