SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... A couple brief tornadoes will be possible this evening across southern Minnesota. ...Southern MN... Several small rotating cells have been noted across southern MN this evening. While instability is generally weak across the region (MLCAPE of 500 J/kg or less), an increasing low-level jet and the presence of a weak surface boundary may support a brief tornado or two for a time this evening before cells diminish with time tonight. See MCD 690 for more information. ...East TX into Western LA... Convection will likely continue to spread into portions of east TX into western LA for much of tonight, on the northern edge of an extensive MCS over the Gulf of Mexico. Modestly enhanced low-level shear may result in some brief rotation with the stronger convective elements, though the overall threat appears too low to add tornado or wind probabilities. ...Southwest TX into the TX Panhandle/western OK... Locally strong thunderstorms may persist for a while this evening across portions of southwest TX and also across portions of the TX Panhandle into western OK, but a general weakening trend is expected with time as boundary-layer cooling/stabilization commences this evening. ...Northern Plains... Convection may persist for much of the evening from central/eastern ND into northwest MN, in the vicinity of a surface boundary. Weak deep-layer shear should continue to limit updraft organization. Any remaining threat of locally damaging wind gusts or a brief landspout should diminish near or shortly after 01Z, as low-level lapse rates weaken with the onset of nocturnal cooling. ..Dean.. 05/20/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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