SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0711 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are possible across south Texas today, with damaging wind gusts as the main threat. Isolated strong thunderstorms are also possible across much of the southern Plains and Arklatex region. ...Deep South TX... Numerous thunderstorms have developed early this morning over northern Mexico and parts of South TX. This activity is forming in a region of substantial CAPE and steep mid-level lapse rates, and ahead of a shortwave trough moving across northern Mexico. Mid-level winds are not particularly strong, which may limit the overall organization of the storms this morning. Nevertheless, the strongest cells will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Bowing structures are also expected across this region, enhancing the risk of wind damage. Storms should move offshore by early afternoon, ending the severe threat. Refer to MCD #685 for further short-term details. ...West TX... The dryline is expected to extend from south of San Angelo to near Childress, TX by mid-afternoon. It appears that sufficient heating will occur to remove the capping inversion and result in at least isolated thunderstorm development. Low and mid level winds are modest, and forcing is weak - suggesting the severe threat will remain marginal. However, the strongest cells may result in hail and gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Leitman.. 05/19/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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