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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Wednesday, May 19, 2021

SPC May 19, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX AND THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, including the risk for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes, remain a concern across southeast Texas into the Upper Texas Coast tonight. Isolated severe storms are also possible across the Texas Panhandle and from the ArkLaTex into northern Arkansas. ...01Z Update... ...Southeast TX...Middle/Upper TX Coast... Large cluster of thunderstorms and embedded supercells continues from central TX to the middle TX Coast. Recent radar imagery has shown a bit more propagation eastward over the past hour or so. Downstream VAD wind profile at HGX has also shown a gradual strengthening around 1 km, with 0-1 km bulk shear now over 25 kt and 0-1 km storm-relative helicity over 275 m2/s2. As such, very moist inflow will be available to this cluster with some further organization also anticipated. Resulting downstream threat for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes is high enough to expand the Slight Risk eastward to the southern TX/LA border. ...North-Central AR... Ongoing convective line continues to weaken but modest instability and moderate low-level flow will still support damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. ...TX Panhandle... Thunderstorms continue to propagate eastward across the central TX Panhandle. Occasional strong gusts are possible as well as isolated instances of hail. However, the overall diminishing trend observed over the past hour is expected to continue, with storm dissipation likely as the line reaches far western OK. ..Mosier.. 05/19/2021 Read more LIVE: