SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- including the risk for large hail and locally damaging winds -- are expected across portions of Texas this afternoon and evening. ...TX... Morning radar/satellite imagery shows a large but decaying MCS over west-central TX in the Abilene/San Angelo areas. This convection will likely linger through the morning and drift slowing eastward, with a leading-edge outflow boundary becoming established from the Hill Country northward into central North TX. The air mass south of the boundary will become very moist and unstable by afternoon with dewpoints in the upper 60s and MLCAPE values over 2500 J/kg. Forcing is weak across the region, with overnight model guidance showing considerable uncertainty in the timing/placement of storms. Nevertheless, it seems likely that the remnant outflow boundary will be one focus for strong/severe storms later today. Forecast soundings in this region show modest winds aloft and some veering flow with height in the low-levels. This may support transient supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. There will be some concern for isolated tornadoes if storms can track down the outflow boundary, although confidence in this scenario is not yet high enough to increase tornado forecast probabilities. Strong to severe storms will likely affect the SLGT risk area through the evening as they track eastward toward LA and slowly weaken. ...West TX/Eastern NM... The surface dryline is expected to extend roughly from near Midland TX to near Clovis NM later today. Storm development along the dryline will be sparse, but those storms that form will have some risk of large hail for a few hours. ...LA/MS/AL... A slow-moving convective cluster over southern LA will continue to track eastward into southern MS/AL today. Despite weak winds aloft, mesoscale organization of the MCS has resulted in some acceleration of the low-level winds, and produced occasional supercell structures overnight. This trend may continue this afternoon, so have introduced a small MRGL risk for the potential of a brief tornado touchdown or two. ..Hart/Leitman.. 05/18/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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