SPC May 18, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...

SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across portions of the southern Plains. The potential for very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging winds will be focused across a broad part of west/northwest Texas. ...

Southern Plains... Numerous severe thunderstorms have developed across the southern Plains from northeast NM-TX Panhandle-TX South Plains-middle Rio Grande Valley. 00z sounding from EPZ sampled a portion of the mid-level speed max that is translating across northern Mexico into west TX with 50kt observed near 6km. This stronger flow aloft will overspread the expanding complex of storms over northwest TX over the next few hours and continued upscale growth is anticipated through storm mergers. Latest radar data suggests an evolving MCS is beginning to take shape along a corridor from Big Spring-Sweetwater-Monday. This activity should mature over the next several hours then surge east along the I-20 corridor, possibly spreading into the western portions of the Metroplex late this evening. Damaging wind threat may increase along the leading edge of this complex, especially if it matures into a bow-type structure. Another possible MCS may emerge over the TX Panhandle as numerous thunderstorms begin to conglomerate. This activity will begin to propagate toward western OK if a sufficient cold pool materializes as expected. ...

Southeast LA... Slow-moving MCS has progressed across much of southwestern LA. 00z sounding from LIX exhibits modest shear through 6km along with high PW-air mass. This activity should propagate across southeastern LA over the next several hours and a tornado or two can not be ruled out with embedded weak circulations. For these reasons will maintain some tornado threat with this MCS. ..Darrow.. 05/18/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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NWS SPC Convective Outlook provided by Arlingtoncardinal.com/weather

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