SPC May 13, 2021 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance remains in fairly good agreement that a closed upper low will move slowly eastward from CA across the Southwest from Day 4/Sunday into Day 5/Monday. Any appreciable severe threat on these days will probably remain confined to parts of the southern/central Plains where sufficient low-level moisture to support surface-based storms should reside. But, the fairly weak mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear forecast across this region may tend to limit the overall severe threat to some extent on both Sunday and Monday. 

The stronger mid-level flow associated with the upper low will probably begin to overspread the southern High Plains into TX/OK from late Monday into Day 6/Tuesday as the upper low continues to slowly eject eastward. Latest guidance indicates that perhaps a somewhat greater threat for organized severe storms may occur on Tuesday across parts of TX, as stronger deep-layer shear overlaps with greater boundary-layer instability and increasing potential for surface-based storms. If current model trends continue regarding the timing and evolution of the upper low, then a 15% severe area may need to be included for some parts of TX in a later outlook update. By Day 7/Wednesday and continuing through the end of the forecast period, predictability in the synoptic-scale pattern across the CONUS quickly decreases. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov

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