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Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data updated 24-48 hours after end of each day. MOBILE CHGOWX.COM ...
Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Weather conditions with Moon are O'Hare (official).

Thursday, May 13, 2021

SPC May 13, 2021 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance remains in fairly good agreement that a closed upper low will move slowly eastward from CA across the Southwest from Day 4/Sunday into Day 5/Monday. Any appreciable severe threat on these days will probably remain confined to parts of the southern/central Plains where sufficient low-level moisture to support surface-based storms should reside. But, the fairly weak mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear forecast across this region may tend to limit the overall severe threat to some extent on both Sunday and Monday. 


The stronger mid-level flow associated with the upper low will probably begin to overspread the southern High Plains into TX/OK from late Monday into Day 6/Tuesday as the upper low continues to slowly eject eastward. Latest guidance indicates that perhaps a somewhat greater threat for organized severe storms may occur on Tuesday across parts of TX, as stronger deep-layer shear overlaps with greater boundary-layer instability and increasing potential for surface-based storms. If current model trends continue regarding the timing and evolution of the upper low, then a 15% severe area may need to be included for some parts of TX in a later outlook update. By Day 7/Wednesday and continuing through the end of the forecast period, predictability in the synoptic-scale pattern across the CONUS quickly decreases. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov