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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Monday, May 10, 2021

SPC May 10, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may occur Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Large hail and damaging wind gusts should be the main threats. ...

Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently moving through the northern Great Basin is forecast to continue southeastward into the Four Corners region tonight before then moving more eastward across the central High Plains/central Plains on Tuesday. Another shortwave trough is currently moving east-northeastward across the Baja Peninsula. This shortwave is expected to continue moving eastward across northern Mexico and into the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley on Tuesday. A relatively moist air mass will precede these shortwaves across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. A stalled frontal boundary will likely extend from southern MS/AL west-southwestward through the TX Coast Plains into south TX, and then northwestward across northwest Mexico. Some northward movement of this boundary is anticipated through Tuesday afternoon before building high pressure over the central Plains and mid/upper MS Valley encourages a southward surge Tuesday evening through early Wednesday. ...

Southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley and Southeast... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across portions of the Lower MS Valley early Tuesday morning. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase throughout the morning as ascent attendant to the Baja shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis spreads across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Warm-air advection associated with strengthening low-level southerly flow across the frontal boundary will also aid in storm development. Widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated across much central/east TX and LA by early Tuesday afternoon, which will then spread eastward throughout the remainder of the period. 

Moderate vertical shear and buoyancy suggest a few embedded strong to severe storms are possible. Majority of these storms will be north of the front, indicating hail should be the primary threat. However, given the shallow nature of the low-level stable layer, a few stronger gusts are also possible. Additionally, northward motion of the warm front could result in interaction between ongoing storms and this frontal zone, particularly from east TX across central LA and into central/southern MS. This interaction may result in a corridor of modestly higher severe potential. Even so, mesoscale nature of this interaction precluding introducing any higher severe probabilities with this outlook. A clustered/multicell storm mode is anticipated with most of the activity across the southern Plains, Lower MS Valley, and Southeast. The only exception is over southwest TX, where a triple point may develop at the intersection of the effective warm front and dryline. Convective initiation may occur as a result of convergence along these boundaries, resulting in more discrete storms. Environment supports a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts if storms do develop. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov

NWS SPC Convective Outlook provided by Arlingtoncardinal.com/weather

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