SPC Jun 3, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR
WESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few
tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening in parts of
the northern Plains. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and
severe wind gusts appear possible across parts of the central High
Plains and southwest Texas into southern New Mexico.

...Northern Plains...
Morning surface analysis place a wavy and diffuse cold front from
central Manitoba southwestward through central ND, western SD to a
low in the WY/NE/CO border intersection vicinity. A pair of weak
lows exist along this boundary as well, one over southwest SD and
the other across central ND. This cold front, as well as these
surface lows, will likely contribute to the development of strong to
severe thunderstorms this afternoon.

Additionally, early morning satellite imagery shows an upper low
over southern Saskatchewan, with a shortwave trough rotating through
its base over southeast MT/eastern WY. This shortwave likely has an
associated belt of stronger flow, but no upper-air data was
available to confirm its magnitude. Eastward progression of this
shortwave will result in increased large-scale ascent across the
frontal zone this afternoon, augmenting the more localized/mesoscale
ascent attendant to the surface features. This increased ascent will
occur within a diurnally destabilizing airmass where steep mid-level
lapse rates atop low to mid 60s dewpoints will likely result in 1500
to 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by this afternoon. Deep-layer shear is also
expected to increase throughout the afternoon amid strengthening
mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave.

The resulting environment will support supercells capable of all
hazards, with the primary hazard predominantly dictated by storm
mode. Given the presence of the front, a linear mode will likely
dominate, with large to isolated very large hail as the primary risk
early in the convective cycle transitioning to damaging gusts
thereafter. Strengthening surface southerlies will contribute to
some elongation of the low-level hodograph, mostly from
central/eastern SD into far southeast ND. This area is also the most
likely to produce more discrete cells within the warm sector. As a
result, there appears to be a relative increase in the overall
tornado risk within this corridor.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the region
this afternoon/evening, both within an arc through the northern and
eastern periphery of the MCV currently over northeast NM and the
northwestern TX Panhandle and along the lee troughing from eastern
CO into southern NM and Far West TX. For storms along the lee
trough, weak shear will limit storm organization, but high cloud
bases and steep low-level lapse rates could result in occasionally
strong downbursts. For storms north and east of the MCV, isolated
damaging gusts are the primary risk, although some hail could occur
over western KS where mid-level lapse rates are slightly steeper
than areas farther south.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/03/2026


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SPC Jun 3, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few
tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening in parts of
the northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. More sporadic
occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible
across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas into
southern New Mexico.

...Northern Plains...
Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low over southern Alberta,
with several shortwave troughs embedded in the southwesterly flow
over MT/WY/ID. At the surface, the primary cold front will move
eastward into the central Dakotas and northwest NE by afternoon,
providing the focus for scattered thunderstorm development.

A broad cluster of weakening thunderstorms is occurring this morning
near the NE/SD border. This activity has resulted in an outflow
boundary that will lift northward into SD this afternoon. Dewpoints
in the upper 60s and MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg are expected in the
region along/north of the outflow boundary, with forecast soundings
showing favorable deep-layer shear for supercell storms. These
storms will persist through the evening, affecting eastern SD,
southeast ND, and western MN. Large hail is the primary risk early,
with a transition to more linear structures during the evening and
an attendant damaging wind risk. Recent model guidance suggests a
notable low-level jet in this region during the late
afternoon/evening, supportive of some risk of maintaining discrete
modes and increasing the risk of a few tornadoes.

...Elsewhere...
Farther south, widely scattered strong storms are expected later
today across the central High Plains, and southwest TX/southern NM.
Locally damaging wind gusts are the main risk.

..Hart/Kerr.. 06/03/2026


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SPC Jun 3, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible Wednesday afternoon into night in parts of the
northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. More sporadic
occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible
across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas into
southeast New Mexico.

...Synopsis...
The upper low will move into the Canadian Prairie today. A modest
mid-level jet will overspread North Dakota into northern South
Dakota. A cold front will move south and east through the Dakotas. A
surface high in the Great Lakes region will promote moisture
advection into the High Plains.

...Northern Plains...
A modest low-level jet (45 kt at KLNX) is promoting a small cluster
of convection along the Nebraska/South Dakota border early this
morning. The duration of this activity is not certain, but it is
possible that it could last until daybreak when the low-level jet is
forecast to weaken. At a minimum, cloud cover from this activity may
delay heating in some areas. Models still bring low 60s F dewpoints
into South Dakota by the afternoon. Forcing for ascent will be
strongest in North Dakota where the upper low will be. Modest ascent
will still occur into South Dakota along the surface trough/front.
40-50 kt of shear will promote organized supercells, at least
initially. There does appear to be a small corridor where a discrete
mode could be maintained longer where the shear vectors will be more
orthogonal the surface trough. There, very-large hail would be more
probable. Overall, a transition to a linear mode is expected to
occur within a couple of hours of initiation as the front moves
southeast. Severe winds would become more likely as this occurs. The
tornado threat will be greatest with the initial discrete storms.
The low-level jet does modestly increase during the evening when a
linear mode should dominate. A QLCS circulation or two is possible,
but the wind threat should be the main concern.

...Central into southern Plains...
Weak convectively generated MCVs are apparent in water vapor imagery
in the Southwest. As these move slowly eastward into this
afternoon, perhaps congealing, they will interact with a surface
trough/stalled boundary in the High Plains. Deep-layer winds will
otherwise be weak, but the MCV may locally enhance shear. Low to mid
60s F dewpoints will contribute to 1500-2000 J/kg despite fairly
modest mid-level lapse rates. The strongest storms will be capable
of isolated large hail and severe gusts. Some clustering may occur
which would locally increase the threat for strong/severe winds.

...Southwest Texas...
Early morning convection appears possible within the region. The
spatial extent/intensity of this activity will play a large role in
whether stronger convection can develop later in the afternoon/early
evening. Should cloud cover/outflow influence be minimal, strong
heating southwest of the region along with moist influx from the
southeast will promote thunderstorms within the Davis Mountains/Big
Bend. Deep-layer flow will only be modest, but isolated large hail
and severe gusts would be possible.

..Wendt/Moore.. 06/03/2026


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SPC Jun 3, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0803 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and potentially a
tornado or two are possible this evening primarily in parts of the
northern Plains.

...01Z Update...
The strongest storms this evening are ongoing in parts of the
Dakotas and far eastern Wyoming. The upper trough will continue to
provide forcing for ascent along with a modest increase in the
low-level jet. Storms have generally begun to grow upscale. Severe
wind gusts are likely the primary threat the remainder of the
evening. That being said, deep layer shear is strong enough to
support occasional supercell structures which would be capable of
large hail, potentially to around 2 inches. A tornado or two is
conditionally possible, but confidence is not overly high given the
amount of outflow and gradual increase in MLCIN anticipated.
Clusters of storms in the southern High Plains will remain capable
of isolated wind damage and hail. Some activity may be able to push
farther east this evening. Otherwise, isolated wind damage will be
possible for another hour or two with activity in Central Texas and
South Florida.

..Wendt.. 06/03/2026


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