SPC Dec 7, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible near a portion of the
north-central/northeast Gulf Coast during the early morning Sunday.

...Discussion...
Conditions will be too dry/stable for appreciable
lightning-producing convection across much of the CONUS through the
period. However, elevated thunderstorms are expected to commence
across the north-central to northeast Gulf Coast overnight. Some of
this activity might approach the nearshore waters and immediate
coastline over the MS River Delta and the FL Panhandle before 12Z
Sunday.

..Grams.. 12/07/2025


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TPgjZC

SPC Dec 6, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Synopsis...
A progressive flow pattern will remain over the Lower 48 states
today. In the low levels, a front will reside over the Gulf and
extend east-northeastward across the northern half of the FL
Peninsula and east of the Carolina coast. The 12 UTC Tampa, FL raob
showed poor lapse rates. Limited buoyancy coupled with
weak/negligible low-level convergence/large-scale ascent will act to
limit convective coverage and intensity across the central FL
Peninsula today.

..Smith/Barnes.. 12/06/2025


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TPgZN1

SPC Dec 6, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Discussion...

Mean long-wave trough is expected to remain centered across the
eastern Plains/MS Valley through the day1 period. Negligible height
changes are expected across lower latitudes which will result in a
synoptic front oscillating across the northern/central FL Peninsula.
This boundary will serve as the primary focus for the potential for
isolated thunderstorm development. Latest model guidance is not
particularly aggressive in air mass destabilization across the
Peninsula, but showers and a few thunderstorms should develop
along/north of the boundary as deep westerly flow provides weak lift
atop the frontal zone. While deep-layer shear is strong, weak
buoyancy and poor lapse rates do not support robust or organized
severe updrafts.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/06/2025


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TPg6SK

SPC Dec 6, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential is negligible tonight.

...01 Update...

Surface front has advanced across the northern FL Peninsula early
this evening. Weak convection is noted along/behind this boundary,
but the more robust updrafts are now offshore where isolated flashes
of lightning are noted off the GA Coast. Latest diagnostic data does
not appear particularly favorable for deep convection along the wind
shift tonight, and post frontal elevated buoyancy is expected to
remain quite weak. Current thinking is the primary risk for isolated
thunderstorms will be well off the GA/SC Coasts.

..Darrow.. 12/06/2025


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TPfyD8