SPC Jun 9, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0805 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail, damaging wind
gusts and a couple of tornadoes are likely this evening from parts
of northeastern Colorado into northwestern Kansas. Large to very
large hail, severe wind gusts from 60 to 90 mph, and a tornado
threat are likely this evening across parts of north-central and
eastern Kansas. An isolated severe threat may persist for a couple
more hours from the eastern Texas Panhandle into northwestern
Oklahoma.

...Northeast Colorado/Northwest Kansas...
A mid-level shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is
currently moving northeastward across northeast Colorado. At the
surface, a front is located across eastern Colorado with a moist
airmass extending from northeastern Colorado southeastward into
western Kansas. Surface dewpoints along this corridor range from the
upper 50s to the mid 60s F, which is contributing to moderate to
strong instability. Scattered severe thunderstorms are ongoing
across northeastern Colorado along the western edge of the stronger
instability, and further north into far southeast Wyoming and
western Nebraska. The storms are expected to organize into a line
and move east-southeastward into southwestern Nebraska and
northwestern Kansas this evening. Large to very large hail will be
possible with the more intense supercells over the next hour or two,
mainly along the southern end of the line where some cells are
likely to remain discrete. Hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter
will be possible. A couple tornadoes will also be possible with
supercells. As a transition to linear mode occurs, the wind-damage
threat will increase. Wind gusts above 75 mph will be possible near
the leading edge of any bowing segments.

...North-central and Eastern Kansas...
On water vapor imagery, a subtle shortwave trough appears to be
located from southern Nebraska southward into central Kansas. Ahead
of this feature, a pocket of strong instability is analyzed by the
RAP over south-central Kansas, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in
the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. A line of severe storms is ongoing in
north-central Kansas, to the north-northwest of the instability
maximum. Multiple supercells with potential for large to very large
hail are ongoing within this line. Over the next couple of hours,
this line is expected to organize into a bowing segment, moving
east-southeastward across the remainder of north-central Kansas and
into eastern Kansas later this evening. The instability combined
with 30 to 40 knots of 0-6 km shear, and steep mid-level lapse rates
near 8 C/km will support a wind-damage threat. If a bowing line
segment can become intense later this evening, a potential will
exist for significant wind gusts above 80 mph. The wind-damage
threat will likely impact far eastern Kansas later this evening, and
western Missouri after midnight. A secondary line of thunderstorms
with severe wind gusts is expected to impact parts of north-central
Kansas after midnight.

...Eastern Texas Panhandle/Northwestern Oklahoma...
A very moist and unstable airmass is located across the southern
Plains. Surface dewpoints from the eastern Texas Panhandle into
northwestern Oklahoma are in the mid 60s to lower 70s F. This is
contributing to strong instability with the RAP showing MLCAPE in
the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range, with steep low-level lapse rates. The
thermodynamic environment should support an isolated threat for
severe wind gusts for a couple more hours this evening...see MCD
1036.

...Far Western Kentucky...
A bowing line segment is currently ongoing in far western Kentucky
along an axis of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE near
2000 J/kg. RAP forecast soundings to the south of Paducah have 0-3
km storm-relative helicity around 200 m2/s2 early this evening,
suggesting that an isolated tornado threat may persist for another
hour or two. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible.

..Broyles.. 06/09/2026


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SPC Jun 8, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND FROM NORTHERN INTO EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms potentially capable of large to giant hail and
a couple of tornadoes are possible over the plains of eastern
Colorado. Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are possible
farther east over northern Kansas late this afternoon through the
late evening. Severe gusts ranging from 60-100 mph are possible
along with a risk for a couple of tornadoes.

...Eastern CO into Western NE/KS...
A belt of moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained
over the central High Plains to the downstream of a western U.S.
upper trough. A surface low near Dodge City, KS and moist easterly
low-level flow to its north, will contribute to upslope flow into
eastern CO and the CO Front Range. Strong heating and 50s to lower
60s deg F dewpoints and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will result in
moderate to large buoyancy by mid afternoon. Elongated hodographs
will favor supercells with the more intense updrafts. Some increase
in low-level hodographs towards early evening coupled with a moist
boundary layer may aid in the risk for supercell tornadoes, in
addition to the risk for hail. Some of the latest model forecast
soundings suggest giant hail (3.0-4.5 inches in diameter) with the
more intense supercells over eastern CO late this afternoon into the
early evening. Severe gusts will also be possible with the stronger
storms with this activity diminishing by late evening.

...KS vicinity...
A very moist surface was analyzed this morning across the central
Great Plains to the south of a front across central and northern KS
to the east of a triple point. Model guidance shows lowest 100-mb
mean mixing ratios of 16-18 g/kg later this afternoon. This very
rich moisture coupled with heating to the south of the front and
early day outflow from storm activity over southwest NE, will result
in a very unstable airmass by late afternoon. Model guidance has
trended towards a severe MCS developing across northern KS and
moving east-southeastward into the lower MO Valley by late evening.
Although it remains unclear exactly how this will evolve, confidence
has increased with regard to a storm cluster and upscale growth
occurring on the northern rim of very rich moisture and a modest
southerly LLJ. Some indication exists for a couple of supercells to
develop ahead of the evolving cluster and eventual squall line.
Large hail and perhaps a tornado risk could accompany this activity.
Have increased severe-wind probabilities and intensity levels, with
the most intense phase of the squall line likely where the overlap
of greater effective shear (30-35 kt) and the large buoyancy
resides. A bow potentially capable of a swath of 60-80 mph gusts
(locally peaking 80-100 mph) is forecast, along with the possibility
for a couple of mesovortices capable of these locally higher gusts
and/or tornadoes. A gradual weakening is expected as this MCS moves
into western parts of MO late.

...Southern KS/Northwest OK...
A dryline will become established this afternoon from the eastern TX
Panhandle into south-central KS. Hot conditions along/west of the
dryline will help to initiate isolated thunderstorms. These
high-based supercells could pose an occasional threat of hail and
damaging winds for a few hours.

...Southern IL/Western KY...
An upper trough continues to lift northeastward across the mid MS
valley today, with a moist/moderately unstable air mass present from
southern IL southward. Mid-level lapse rates are marginal for
severe storms, and winds aloft are modest. Nevertheless, veering
winds-with-height and sufficient CAPE will pose an occasional risk
of strong storms capable of gusty winds or a tornado today.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 06/08/2026


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SPC Jun 8, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with large to very large hail, severe wind
gusts potentially above 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible
today from the Front Range east-southeastward into the central
Plains. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in
parts of the southern High Plains, northern Plains and mid
Mississippi Valley. An isolated hail threat may develop toward the
end of the period in the northern High Plains.

...Eastern CO into Western NE/KS...
Relatively fast southwest flow aloft is present today from the
southwest states into the central Rockies. A surface low will
remain over southwest KS through the day, maintaining a stream of
easterly low-level winds and moist advection into eastern CO and
northwest KS. Daytime heating will further aid the westward
transport of moisture, resulting in an unstable air mass over the
foothills near Denver/CO Springs. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop in this corridor this afternoon, in an environment of steep
mid-level lapse rates, CAPE around 1000 J/kg, and favorable
deep-layer shear. Supercell structures capable of large hail will
be the main early threat. As this activity moves/builds eastward
into the Plains, it will encounter increasingly moist/unstable air
and strengthening low-level shear profiles by early evening. This
will promote a risk of a few supercell tornadoes, large hail, and
damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk may be needed in later
updates as clouds/daytime heating and affects of ongoing NE
convection is assessed.

By mid-evening, the activity is expected to be organizing upscale
into linear structures as it moves into southwest NE and northwest
KS. An increasing risk of damaging winds will likely develop, with
storms spreading eastward into the overnight hours.

...Northwest AR...
A cluster of intense thunderstorms is ongoing this morning over
southwest MO/northeast OK. This activity could continue to pose a
risk of isolated damaging wind gusts through the morning into
northwest AR before weakening later today.

...Southern KS/Northwest OK/TX Panhandle...
A dryline will become established this afternoon from the eastern TX
Panhandle to the surface low in south-central KS. Hot conditions
along/west of the dryline will help to initiate isolated
thunderstorms. These high-based cells could pose an occasional
threat of hail and damaging winds for a few hours.

...Eastern KS...
A moist and very unstable air mass will lie across eastern KS today
with CAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg, but with a weak cap. CAM
guidance varies on the potential for afternoon/early evening
thunderstorms in this area, but enough 00z runs suggested a threat
to maintain the SLGT. Any storm that can form would pose a risk of
large hail and damaging winds.

...Southern IL/Western KY...
An upper trough continues to lift northeastward across the mid MS
valley today, with a moist/moderately unstable air mass present from
southern IL southward. Mid-level lapse rates are marginal for
severe storms, and winds aloft are modest. Nevertheless, veering
winds-with-height and sufficient CAPE will pose an occasional risk
of strong storms capable of gusty winds or a tornado today.

..Hart/Wendt.. 06/08/2026


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SPC Jun 8, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with large to very large hail, severe wind
gusts potentially above 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible
today from the Front Range east-southeastward into the central
Plains. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in
parts of the southern High Plains, northern Plains and mid
Mississippi Valley. An isolated hail threat may develop toward the
end of the period in the northern High Plains.

...Front Range Into Central High Plains...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today from the
Intermountain West into the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold
front will advance southward across the central High Plains as a low
deepens ahead of the front. During the afternoon, an axis of
maximized low-level convergence will become focused along the Front
Range of east-central Colorado, along which thunderstorms are
expected in the afternoon. These storms will move eastward out of
the higher terrain into northeast Colorado during the mid to late
afternoon. A line of severe storms is expected to organize by early
evening.

RAP forecast soundings in northeastern Colorado late this afternoon
have MLCAPE peaking around 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 55
knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be around 8.5 C/km.
This will support supercells with large hail, and hailstones greater
than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with any rotating storms
that can become intense. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
is forecast to peak around 200 m2/s2 over parts of northeastern
Colorado during the late afternoon, which will support a tornado
threat. As a cluster moves eastward into the central High Plains,
organization into a line is expected. This will increase the
potential for severe wind gusts, and a few gusts above 70 mph will
be possible.

...Great Plains...
A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the
southern and central Plains today, with surface dewpoints mostly
from the upper 60s F into the mid 70s F. This will enable a pocket
of strong instability to develop by afternoon across central Kansas.
From near the instability max westward, model forecasts suggest that
low-level convergence will become maximized during the afternoon
over parts of western and central Kansas. This should result in
isolated to scattered convective initiation. A cell or two is
expected to develop and move southeastward into the strong
instability during the mid to late afternoon.

RAP forecast soundings near the instability max at 21Z have MLCAPE
near 4000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb
lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This will be favorable for supercells
with large hail and severe wind gusts. Low-level shear may also
support a conditional and isolated tornado threat. In addition, the
strong instability will contribute to a potential for hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts above 70 mph with
the more intense rotating cells.

...Mid Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level trough will move northeastward today across the mid
Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate
instability is forecast from far western Kentucky into southern
Illinois. Along this axis, deep-layer shear is forecast to be
sufficient for an isolated severe threat. As low-level lapse rates
steepen in the late afternoon, a few severe wind gusts will be
possible.

...Northern High Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western U.S.
today, as mid-level heights fall over the northern High Plains.
Ahead of the trough, a surface low will form in eastern Montana
tonight, as upslope flow develops to the east of the low. Near the
surface low, low-level convergence is forecast to become maximized
late in the period, which will support isolated thunderstorm
development from northeast Montana into far northwestern North
Dakota. Instability, deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates may be
sufficient for an isolated hail threat, mainly between 09Z and 12Z
Tuesday morning.

..Broyles/Supinie.. 06/08/2026


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