SPC Jul 11, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
OZARKS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible today from
parts of Ozarks eastward into the mid Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys. Severe wind gusts are also possible in southeast Arizona. A
few severe gusts may also occur in the southern Plains and from the
southern Appalachians to the Atlantic Seaboard.

...Mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/Ozarks/Southern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley today. At the surface, a very moist airmass will
be in place from the Ozarks eastward into the Tennessee Valley,
where dewpoints will be in the 70s F. Low-level convergence is
expected to increase by early afternoon ahead of the shortwave
trough in the mid Mississippi Valley. This combined with large-scale
ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will support scattered
thunderstorm development in the afternoon from eastern Missouri into
southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Additional storms may
develop along an east-to-west axis of low-level convergence from far
northern Arkansas into western and middle Tennessee. As surface
temperatures warm today, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 2000 to
3000 J/kg range over much of this airmass, with 0-6 km shear in the
20 to 30 knot range. This, along with steep low-level lapse rates,
will be favorable for severe wind gusts with the stronger
multicells. The threat should be concentrated in the afternoon and
early evening.

Additional more isolated storms are expected to form this afternoon
from the Texas Panhandle eastward into Oklahoma. Moderate
instability and steep low-level lapse rates will support an isolated
threat for severe gusts, mainly in the late afternoon.

...Southeast Arizona...
A moist airmass will be in place over southern Arizona today with
surface dewpoints in the 50s F. As surface temperatures warm,
moderate instability will likely develop over much of southeastern
Arizona, where SBCAPE should peak in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range.
Thunderstorms are expected to form along a north-to-south corridor
of low-level convergence near the Arizona and New Mexico state line,
with storms moving westward across southeast Arizona. At 00Z, RAP
forecast soundings have 0-6 km shear near 25 knots, with 0-3 km
lapse rates in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This environment will be
favorable for severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells,
especially if an organized line can develop.

...Southern Appalachians to Atlantic Seaboard...
A very moist airmass will be in place today from the southern
Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, where surface
dewpoints will be from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F. As surface
temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over much of
the region. Thunderstorms that form in the higher terrain and along
zones of convergence will have potential for isolated severe gusts.
The threat will be concentrated in the late afternoon as instability
and low-level lapse rates become maximized.

..Broyles/Halbert.. 07/11/2026


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SPC Jul 10, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE OZARKS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered
severe/damaging winds and occasional hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening from parts of the southern/central High Plains
to the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley.

...Southern/Central High Plains...
Scattered high-based thunderstorms are forecast later this afternoon
in a weak low-level upslope regime. Ample heating due to the void
of cloud cover and a high sun angle will facilitate the development
of very steep lower tropospheric lapse rates. A cluster or two is
forecast to eventually evolve this evening over southeast CO and
from the OK-TX Panhandles into far eastern NM. Severe gusts (60-70
mph) will be the primary hazard. Isolated hail may also occur with
the stronger cores given moderate deep-layer shear.

...Ozarks to the Mid Mississippi Valley...
An MCV near the northeast KS/southeast NE border will migrate
eastward today and serve as a forcing impetus for thunderstorms this
afternoon. Heating in wake of earlier showers/storms will act to
destabilize the boundary layer ahead of storms forming in proximity
to the MCV. Some modest enhancement of mid-level westerly flow may
promote organized storms, including possibly supercells, in addition
to organized clusters. Hail and severe gusts will be the primary
hazards with this activity.

...Tennessee Valley/Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley...
An MCV moving into the southern Appalachians will likely aid
additional convective development this afternoon over the southern
Appalachians and into the Piedmont by late afternoon. Multicells
capable of localized damaging gusts (50-60 mph) will be the primary
threat with the stronger water-loaded downdrafts. A somewhat
separate area of thunderstorm development is also forecast farther
north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley where multiple weak
mid-level perturbations should develop eastward in generally zonal
flow aloft. While mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear will
be slightly stronger across this region compared to areas farther
south, instability should be weaker. Regardless, occasional
strong/damaging winds may occur with any thunderstorm clusters that
can develop along/south of a front this afternoon across the
Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley.

...Western Florida Peninsula...
A couple of stronger storms may develop along the sea breeze this
afternoon. PW near 2 inches will support water-loaded downdrafts
capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps wind damage.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon
along/near a weak front from parts of eastern SD and vicinity into
western MN. Deep-layer shear will be weak and limit storm
organization but steepened lapse rates may support an isolated risk
for localized severe gusts or marginally severe hail with the
stronger cores.

...Southeast AZ...
Forecast soundings later today show 20-kt northeasterly 500-mb flow
atop weak low-level westerly flow. This slight enhancement to flow
may aid in storm movement and some cold pool organization with the
scattered convection that develops. Steep surface to 400-mb lapse
rates may enable a few severe gusts with the stronger cores.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 07/10/2026


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SPC Jul 10, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE OZARKS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered
severe/damaging winds and occasional hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening from parts of the southern/central High Plains
to the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley.

...Southern/Central High Plains...
Mid-level heights should slowly rise today as an upper ridge builds
over the western CONUS. Still, high-based thunderstorms are forecast
to form across the higher terrain of the southern/central High
Plains this afternoon in a weak low-level upslope regime. The
airmass farther east into western KS may tend to remain capped, but
sufficient instability should exist to support surface-based
thunderstorms with an associated threat for scattered
severe/damaging winds from southeast CO into northeast NM and parts
of the OK/TX Panhandles. This should especially be the case where
strong daytime heating steepens low-level lapse rates through deep
mixing of the boundary layer. Have adjusted the Slight Risk westward
a bit across the southern/central High Plains with this update, in
line with recent model guidance showing the more favored corridor
for severe gusts this afternoon/evening. Isolated hail may also
occur with the stronger cores given moderate deep-layer shear, but
the tendency for clustering/quick upscale growth suggests that
severe winds should be the primary threat.

...Ozarks to the Mid Mississippi Valley...
A well-defined MCV remains clearly evident on regional radar and
satellite imagery this morning along the NE/KS border. This MCV will
likely develop east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO by
this afternoon. A small cluster ongoing across central MO may
continue to pose a threat for severe/damaging winds in the short
term. (See Mesoscale Discussion 1572 for more details.) Otherwise, a
convectively reinforced front to the MCV's south should serve as a
focus for renewed thunderstorm development later today as the
seasonably moist airmass across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley
gradually destabilizes. Moderate to locally strong instability
coupled with modestly enhanced mid-level westerly flow and
sufficient deep-layer shear should promote organized severe
convection, including the potential for supercells. Both large hail
and severe/damaging winds may occur with this initially discrete
activity, before a tendency for clustering results in a greater risk
for damaging winds with eastward extent into the Ozarks/mid MS
Valley through this evening. Some adjustments have been made to the
Slight Risk across these regions based on latest guidance and
observational trends.

...Tennessee Valley/Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley...
An MCV which developed from earlier convection across the mid MS
Valley/Mid-South has slowly moved eastward across the lower OH
Valley early this morning, with a trailing flank of thunderstorms
over the Mid-South/TN Valley being aided by a west-southwesterly
low-level jet. This feature is forecast to track generally eastward
through the day, and may aid additional convective development later
today across parts of the southern Appalachians into the Carolinas.
While deep-layer shear will remain modest, moderate instability
developing over lower elevation locations should support some risk
for damaging winds with multicell clusters that spread eastward this
afternoon/evening. A somewhat separate area of thunderstorm
development is also forecast farther north across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley where multiple weak mid-level perturbations
should develop eastward in generally zonal flow aloft. While
mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear will be slightly
stronger across this region compared to areas farther south,
instability should be weaker. Regardless, occasional strong/damaging
winds may occur with any thunderstorm clusters that can develop
along/south of a front this afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic/OH
Valley.

...Western Florida Peninsula...
Mid-level ridging extending from the western Atlantic over the FL
Peninsula is forecast to move little today, with weak winds aloft
forecast. Most guidance continues to suggest that thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon along the Gulf Coast sea breeze across parts
of the western FL Peninsula in a moderately to strongly unstable
environment. Rich low-level moisture characterized by total PWAT
values around 2 inches coupled with steepened low-level lapse rates
due to diurnal heating may support isolated strong to severe
downdraft winds with the more robust cores that develop this
afternoon.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
Upper ridging will become more prominent today over much of the
Southwest/Great Basin northeastward into the northern Plains and
central Canada. Even so, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may
develop this afternoon along/near a weak front from parts of eastern
SD and vicinity into western MN. Mid-level north-northwesterly flow
should remain weak to modest across this region, which will limit
deep-layer shear and overall updraft organization. Still, a signal
for isolated gusty winds/hail with loosely organized clusters
remains apparent, if convection can form.

..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/10/2026


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SPC Jul 10, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be
possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and
central High Plains. Severe gusts will also be possible from the
Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the southern and
central Appalachians, and over the western Florida Peninsula.

...Southern and Central High Plains...
At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge will be build northeastward into
the north-central U.S. today as a trough moves through the central
Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over the
central Plains. Low-level convergence will become maximized this
afternoon from eastern Colorado southward into northeast New Mexico.
As surface heating takes place, thunderstorms will form in the
higher terrain near this convergence axis, and move eastward into
the central and southern High Plains. Moderate deep-layer shear and
steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support a threat for severe
wind gusts and isolated large hail. The threat may be greatest near
the southern edge of the moist airmass from far southeast Colorado
and southwest Kansas into the northern Texas Panhandle, where strong
moisture convergence is forecast during the early to mid evening.

...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
A very moist airmass will be in place today across the central U.S.,
where surface dewpoints will be mostly 70s F. As surface
temperatures warm, moderate to strong instability will develop near
a moist axis extending west-to-east from the Ozarks into the mid
Mississippi Valley. Low-level convergence is expected to become
maximized this afternoon along and south of the moist axis. MLCAPE
in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range combined with steep low-level lapse
rates will support a potential for severe wind gusts with any short
line segment that can become organized. The severe threat is
expected to be greatest during the late afternoon and early evening,
coincident with the maximum in instability.

...Southern and Central Appalachians...
A subtle mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the
southern and central Appalachians today. As surface temperatures
warm, moderate instability will develop over much of the region by
afternoon. Topographic forcing and subtle large-scale ascent near
the shortwave trough will support isolated to scattered convective
development. Thunderstorms will form in the higher terrain and move
eastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon. The
instability and steep low-level lapse rates will support isolated
severe gusts with the stronger multicells.

...Western Florida Peninsula...
Very moist air will be in place over the Gulf today, where surface
dewpoints will be in the 70s F. As temperatures warm, a sea breeze
boundary is expected to form near the coast of western Florida
around midday. Thunderstorms will develop along this boundary as the
it moves inland during the afternoon. Moderate instability and steep
low-level lapse rates will support a few severe gusts.

...Eastern South Dakota/Southwest Minnesota...
An axis of low-level moisture will be in place today from Iowa
north-northwestward into southwest Minnesota and eastern South
Dakota, where surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As surface
temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop along the moist
axis. Although low-level convergence is expected to remain weak, a
storm or two associated with a marginal hail threat could develop
and move southeastward along the instability axis in the late
afternoon and early evening.

..Broyles/Halbert.. 07/10/2026


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