Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms are possible from late tonight into the
early morning on Thursday from parts of west and northwest Texas
northeastward into Oklahoma.
...West and Northwest Texas/Oklahoma...
A mid-level trough will move quickly east-northeastward from the
eastern Pacific this morning to the southern Plains tonight. Ahead
of the system, a lee surface trough will develop across the High
Plains, as winds become south to southeasterly over much of the
southern Plains. In response, moisture advection will increase over
the southern Plains, as a moist airmass spreads northwestward into
parts of west-central and north-central Texas by midnight. Along the
northwestern edge of this airmass, low-level convergence is forecast
to increase after midnight, which will aid scattered thunderstorm
development during the overnight period. Instability along a
southwest-to-northeast corridor is forecast to remain weak, with
MLCAPE peaking around 500 J/kg. In addition, a low-level capping
inversion just the east of the instability axis will keep much of
the convection elevated. In spite of these negative factors,
effective shear will be in the 40 to 50 knot range, and 700-500 mb
lapse rates are forecast to be between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This
environment could support a marginal severe threat with cells that
rotate. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible, mainly
in the 08Z to 12Z timeframe.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 01/07/2026
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