SPC Nov 9, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Recent satellite imagery shows an elongated upper low centered over
the TX Big Bend vicinity. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are
currently ongoing within the broad warm-air advection regime
downstream of this low from central and south TX across much of the
TX Coastal Plains into southeast TX. 12Z BRO and CRP soundings
sampled a seasonally moist airmass characterized by PW values over
1.8" and poor lapse rates. General expectation is for showers and
elevated thunderstorms to continue throughout the day while
diminishing in strength and intensity as an embedded shortwave
trough continues northeastward. The warm sector, which is
characterized by upper 60s dewpoints, is forecast to remain largely
offshore as the associated surface low drifts very slowly eastward.
These factors should all act to keep the overall severe weather
threat very low.

Guidance also suggests a fast-moving shortwave trough will progress
through the Pacific Northwest this afternoon/evening, with the
primary frontal band arriving close to 00Z. Occasional lightning
flashes may occur with this activity, as mid-level temperatures will
be fairly cold, but most of the convection should be shallow.
Enhanced southwesterly flow will exist across the region, but the
limited instability and shallow storm depth should limit the risk
for severe gusts.

..Mosier/Moore.. 11/09/2026


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SPC Nov 9, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Generally elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across
parts of south TX to the north of a weak inverted surface trough.
This convection is being aided by large-scale ascent and modest
low-level warm advection occurring ahead of a weak upper trough over
west TX/northern Mexico. Weak MUCAPE and poor lapse rates aloft are
expected to limit the severe threat this morning (reference the 12Z
observed CRP/BRO soundings). Also, the potential for surface-based
thunderstorms over land appears lower than yesterday, and any
stronger thunderstorms should tend to focus offshore through the
morning into early afternoon.

Another fast-moving upper trough is forecast to overspread the
Pacific Northwest this afternoon through tonight. Surface dewpoints
in the upper 40s to low 50s and filtered daytime heating should
allow MUCAPE up to 100-300 J/kg to develop along/ahead of a
low-topped band of convection expected to move quickly eastward
across coastal WA/OR this afternoon. Occasional lightning flashes
may occur with this activity, as mid-level temperatures will be
fairly cold. While strong low/mid-level winds veering with height
appear conditionally favorable for organized updrafts, the meager
instability should tend to limit the risk for severe gusts.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/09/2026


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SPC Nov 9, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CST Sun Nov 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the U.S. Monday through
Monday night.

...South Texas...

An upper low initially near the Big Bend region at 12z Monday is
forecast to weaken through the day while a series of embedded
perturbations track from the lower Rio Grande Valley along the
coast. Forcing for ascent associated with those features along with
persistent low/mid-level warm advection is likely to sustain
scattered thunderstorms through the morning with areal coverage
gradually decreasing by mid to late afternoon.

Similar to Sunday, the kinematic environment will feature veering
winds with height with around 40 kt of deep-layer shear, which would
conditionally support supercell storm modes and some severe weather
threat. While a strong storm or two is possible Monday morning, it
appears that outflow associated with early-day convection is likely
to limit more robust air mass destabilization and an associated
severe weather threat.

...Pacific Northwest...

A short-wave trough is forecast to move onshore Monday afternoon
with associated height falls/midlevel cooling coinciding with moist,
onshore flow in the low levels. Those processes will yield weak
instability (MUCAPE of 100-200 J/kg) with forecast soundings
indicating the potential for convective updrafts to reach sufficient
depth for episodic lightning activity from the coast inland to at
least the Cascades Monday afternoon and evening. Somewhat analogous
to Saturday, strong low-level winds are forecast ahead of the
surface front, suggesting some potential for a few strong wind gusts
in association with any deeper convective elements moving onshore.

...South Florida...

A few lightning strikes may occur with diurnally enhanced
thunderstorms Monday afternoon amidst a moist and marginally
unstable air mass. However, forecast soundings indicate a warm and
dry nose centered in the 650-600 mb layer, which will likely inhibit
the majority of convective updrafts from reaching sufficient depth
for lightning discharge.

..Mead.. 11/09/2026


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SPC Nov 9, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 PM CST Sun Nov 08 2026

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...South Texas...

An upper low over southwest Chihuahua, Mexico, this evening will
progress toward the TX Big Bend overnight. Modest midlevel height
falls preceding that feature will combine with persistent
low/midlevel warm advection and a moist environment with MUCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg (per the 00Z BRO and CRP soundings) to yield an
increase in thunderstorm coverage overnight. While no severe weather
is expected, a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds is
possible.

...Lower Great Lakes...

Ongoing showers over portions of southwest Ontario are indicative of
increased forcing for ascent associated with a vorticity maximum
moving through that region. So far, convection has remained too
shallow to support charge separation and lightning production.
However, as the forcing begins to overspread the lower Great Lakes,
sensible heat and moisture fluxes may be sufficient to yield deeper
convective updrafts capable of sporadic lightning over far western
NY and in the Tug Hill region.

..Mead.. 11/09/2026


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