SPC Jun 23, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+
mph gusts, and isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High
Plains into parts of the southern Plains today into tonight.
Scattered damaging winds should also occur with thunderstorms across
southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina.

...Southern Plains...
Mainly elevated thunderstorms are occurring across western/southwest
KS into northwest OK this morning, aided by a 20-25 kt southerly
low-level jet and attendant warm/moist advection. This convection
may tend to remain elevated for at least the next couple of hours,
as a surface front remains draped near the Red River vicinity.
However, there is substantial low-level moisture present across the
TX Panhandle into western OK along/south of the ongoing
thunderstorms (upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints). Steep
mid-level lapse rates atop this moist airmass is supporting MUCAPE
up to 3000-4000 J/kg. Strongly veering and modestly strengthening
winds with height through mid/upper levels is fostering upwards of
40-50 kt of effective bulk shear per recent RAP forecast soundings
and latest mesoanalysis estimates. This activity will likely
continue to pose a threat for mainly large hail this morning so long
as the mode remains supercellular.

With time, mergers/outflow interactions should foster some
clustering/upscale growth into the afternoon. There is some
potential for a more concentrated corridor of severe/damaging winds
to spread southward this afternoon and evening across parts of the
TX Panhandle into western/central OK with one or more intense
clusters that form. Isolated significant gusts to 75-85 mph gusts
appear possible given an already very moist/unstable airmass that
will undergo additional destabilization with daytime heating.
Strongly considered increasing wind probabilities and introducing an
Enhanced Risk for this area. But, ongoing morning convection casts a
little too much uncertainty to upgrade with this outlook update.

...Central High Plains...
Thunderstorms ongoing across western NE this morning on the northern
periphery of the low-level jet and related moisture plume have
recently weakened. Still, this convection may continue to pose an
isolated severe hail/wind risk for as long as it can persist. But,
additional weakening is expected later this morning as it encounters
a less unstable airmass. Otherwise, westerly mid-level flow and weak
forcing will persist over the central High Plains today. Weak
low-level upslope flow and a small-scale mid-level perturbation
embedded within the westerly flow aloft should encourage at least
isolated convective development across southeast WY into eastern CO
by early/mid evening.

Model trends suggest that robust convective initiation may be
delayed until 00Z or perhaps even later (04-06Z). Still, a
conditionally favorable environment for very large hail will exist
across the central High Plains this afternoon into tonight. Any
thunderstorms that can develop will likely become severe given
strong deep-layer shear, the presence of steep mid-level lapse
rates, and moderate to locally strong instability. Have maintained
the Enhanced Risk for large to very large hail, but lower confidence
exists for a swath of severe/damaging winds given the probable late
timing of convection and tendency for this activity to remain
discrete. Even though low-level flow and shear will remain modest
this evening across the central High Plains, a tornado may still
occur with any sustained supercell.

...Southeast Virginia/Eastern North Carolina...
Within large-scale upper troughing over the eastern CONUS/Canada, an
embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today across
the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold
front will also develop eastward across these areas through the
afternoon. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop by
late morning/early afternoon along and ahead of the front. While
lapse rates aloft will remain poor, sufficient instability will
exist with daytime heating to support surface-based convection. A
generally linear/cluster mode is anticipated given the frontal
forcing, with modestly enhanced low/mid-level flow and related shear
supporting thunderstorm organization. Scattered damaging winds
appear to be the main threat with this activity as it spreads
eastward through the afternoon, with the greatest concentration
forecast across parts of southeast VA and eastern NC. A brief
tornado or two may also occur with embedded mesocirculations in the
line.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
A closed mid-level low over south-central Canada this morning will
move slowly eastward today. A belt of enhanced (40-50 kt) westerly
mid-level winds will overspread parts of the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest to the south of this low. At the surface, a cold front
in the process of occluding is located over the Dakotas.
Thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/east of this
boundary across parts of the eastern Dakotas into western MN. Given
sufficient deep-layer shear and instability, some of this activity
may pose an isolated severe hail/wind risk, along with a tornado or
two. Modest instability should keep the overall severe risk fairly
isolated/marginal.

..Gleason/Jewell.. 06/23/2026


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SPC Jun 23, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC...

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+ mph gusts, and
isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High Plains into
parts of the central and southern Plains today into tonight.
Damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may occur with storms
along the Mid-Atlantic. Scattered storms capable of isolated severe
wind/hail are possible across the northern Plains into the upper
Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will impinge on the Eastern Seaboard while upper
ridging builds over the western into central CONUS today. Multiple
mid-level impulses are poised to traverse the upper ridge,
supporting at least scattered thunderstorm development in multiple
rounds across the Plains. These rounds of storms will encompass the
entire period (12Z Tuesday morning through 12Z Wednesday morning),
resulting in a complex forecast. Nonetheless, stronger flow aloft
associated with the ridge will advect an EML atop seasonal low-level
moisture, resulting in enough buoyancy and vertical wind shear to
support an appreciable severe threat, especially over the central
High Plains. Otherwise, a cold front approaching the East Coast will
support a line of severe thunderstorms over the Mid-Atlantic.

...Portions of the central High Plains...
By afternoon peak heating, upslope flow beneath a glancing mid-level
impulse will support the initiation of at least isolated storms.
These storms will develop atop a relatively mixed boundary layer and
surface dewpoints approaching 60 F, overspread by 9 C/km mid-level
lapse rates, resulting in moderate to locally strong buoyancy (i.e.
3000+ J/kg MLCAPE). Strong vertical wind shear will also be in
place, with 50 kts of effective bulk shear driven by elongated
hodographs with modest low-level curvature. Supercells will be the
primary storm mode, accompanied by a threat for all hazards. Given
the potential for a mixed boundary layer, intense gusts well
exceeding 75 mph will be possible, in addition to hailstones
potentially reaching the 2-3.5 inch range. Any supercells that can
ingest terrain-induced low-level vertical vorticity may be
accompanied by a landspout/hybrid tornado threat.

...Portions of the central and southern Plains...
A surface boundary currently resides along the Red River, with
thunderstorms developing all along this boundary from the TX
Panhandle to central MS. At the start of the forecast period (12Z
Tuesday), an established low-level jet will be in the process of
transporting a moist low-level airmass northward, perhaps
encouraging northward movement of the surface boundary as well.
However, an MCS may develop somewhere along the KS/OK border at the
start of the period along an elevated boundary, which will drift
southeastward through the late morning/early afternoon hours. The
evolution of this MCS and interacting convection with the
aforementioned surface boundary introduces considerable uncertainty
to the forecast, especially for late afternoon/early evening storms.

If the MCS and merging surface boundary convection linger over the
southern Plains through the day, later severe potential may be
reduced. However, if convection can exit the Plains or somehow
dissipate by late morning/early afternoon, enough destabilization
may take place for an evening severe threat. Should the later
scenario unfold, convective initiation over the southern High Plains
may result in severe hail/wind producing supercells merging into a
cold-pool driven MCS, which in turn may produce a severe wind swath
with 75+ mph gusts. Given so much uncertainty with the details of
this forecast, a broad area of 15 percent/CIG1 probabilities were
introduced for portions of the central and southern Plains.
Considerable adjustments to this forecast (upgrades or probabilities
removal) may be needed depending on convective and subsequent
modified environmental evolution through the first half of the
period.

...Parts of the Northern Plains...
Cold temperatures aloft and 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates will
accompany the passage of an upper low over parts of the northern
Plains into the Upper MS Valley. By afternoon peak heating,
thunderstorms initiating along the periphery of the upper low, amid
a belt of stronger flow aloft (driving elongated hodographs) will
support multicells and perhaps transient supercells capable of
isolated severe wind and hail.

...Mid-Atlantic...
By late morning into early afternoon, surface temperatures warming
into the 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints will yield over 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE, but distributed through tall/thin profiles given poor (5-6
C/km) mid-level lapse rates. Nearly unidirectional tropospheric wind
profiles will yield nearly 40 kts of effective (speed) shear, which
will favor multicellular development and ultimately a squall line
along/ahead of the cold front. Damaging gusts are expected to be the
main threat, though a brief tornado may also occur wherever locally
backed near-surface winds may be realized.

..Squitieri/Halbert.. 06/23/2026


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SPC Jun 23, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Supercells and multicell clusters will continue to produce
significant-severe wind/hail across the central High Plains this
evening. Severe gusts and widn damage may accompany storms near the
Mid-Atlantic coast through late evening. Tonight, isolated severe
storms may occur across the southern Plains into the Middle
Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will advance toward the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard
while a pronounced mid-level impulse ejects into the
central/northern High Plains. At the surface, a trough will impinge
on the East Coast while ongoing/developing storms continue to
progress along a baroclinic boundary, from the Mid-MS Valley
northwestward along the High Plains. Strong shear and buoyancy in
both of these regimes will continue to foster severe potential into
the evening hours.

...Mid Atlantic into the Southeast...
A well defined QLCS is tracking across the Mid-Atlantic, with more
sporadic pulse-cellular/multicellular storms progressing over the
Southeast. The QLCS will move offshore over the next hour,
accompanied by a damaging gust threat. Across the Southeast,
multicellular storms supported by the remnants of daytime heating or
localized lift along MCVs appear to be on the wane. Nonetheless,
1000-2000 J/kg remnant MLCAPE will support localized wet downburst
potential with some of the stronger storms over the next couple of
hours. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out with MCV storms
across the TN Valley.

...High Plains...
Supercells remain in progress across the central to northern High
Plains, where 2-3 inch in diameter hail and gusts well exceeding 75
mph have occurred. 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE, driven by 8+ C/km mid-level
lapse rates, precede many of these supercells, so a severe wind/hail
threat will continue with these storms for at least a few more
hours. A tornado is also possible for supercells that remain inflow
dominant. There is some chance that supercells could grow upscale
into an MCS, which would traverse a surface boundary across the
southern High Plains into the Southern Plains. Confidence in this
scenario is quite low. However, should this evolution occur, severe
gusts would be possible.

...Southern Plains into the Middle MS Valley...
Thunderstorms are initiating along a surface boundary, draped from
the TX Panhandle into central MS. 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-50
kts of effective bulk shear overspreads this boundary, which would
promote multicells and supercells with a severe wind/hail threat
wherever storms mature. Nonetheless, forcing along this boundary is
weak, so the severe threat should remain isolated through tonight.

..Squitieri.. 06/23/2026


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SPC Jun 22, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds
and perhaps a couple of tornadoes should occur this afternoon and
evening across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across the
northern/central High Plains, with large to very large hail and a
tornado or two.

...20z Update Central High Plains...
Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. Strong to severe
storms, including supercells, are developing across parts of WY and
CO and should spread east/southeastward this afternoon and evening.
Steep mid-level lapse rates and the discrete mode should favor
significant severe hail with these storms into this evening. A
tornado or two is also possible, focused mostly along the Cheyenne
Ridge where stronger low-level shear is being observed.

...Mid Atlantic...
Several rounds of storms remain likely this afternoon and evening
beneath the strong mid-level zonal flow aloft. Damaging winds appear
to be the most likely threat with scattered but mostly cellular
storms through this evening. A tornado or two remains possible. This
is most likely near the warm front across northern NJ and southern
Long Island where stronger and backed low-level flow is supporting
100-150 0-1km SRH.

Some guidance shows an increase in storm clustering and stronger
outflow gusts from northern VA into northern MD/DE and southern
PA/NJ this evening. Should this occur, a locally more favorable
corridor of damaging winds could develop. However, this remains very
uncertain given the more scattered and cellular convection observed
so far.

...TX/OK...
Some mode signal exists for isolated convective development this
afternoon along the trailing outflow boundary across north TX from
the morning MCS. Very large buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates
could support hail with these storms. However, the lack of broader
large-scale ascent suggests more isolated coverage through this
evening.

..Lyons.. 06/22/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026/

...Mid Atlantic...
Relatively fast zonal flow is present today from the OH Valley into
the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US, with a shortwave trough evident
over OH/MI. As this feature tracks eastward, it will push a surface
cold front southward across the central Appalachians and into the
Mid-Atlantic region. Considerable clouds are present ahead of the
front from KY/WV into VA/PA/NJ, limiting destabilization and
confidence in the details of where clusters of storms may form later
today. However, given the relatively strong winds aloft and
dewpoints in the 60s, it would seem likely that scattered strong to
severe storms will occur, capable of locally damaging winds and
perhaps a tornado.

...TN/MS/AL/GA...
The remnants of a severe overnight MCS are over AR/west TN/northern
MS. This system has considerable mesoscale organization with an MCV
noted over eastern AR. A very moist and unstable air mass is in
place ahead of this system over northern MS/AL, where heating into
the mid 80s will foster thunderstorm intensification this afternoon.
Damaging winds are the main concern with these storms, but a
low-level jet feature associated with the MCV could result in a few
supercell structures and the risk of a tornado or two. Activity
will track into north GA this evening. Refer to MD #1252 for
further details.

...Central High Plains...
Similar to yesterday, low-clouds are slowly burning off across the
High Plains of eastern CO and western SD/NE/KS, where moderate CAPE
values will develop by mid-afternoon. Easterly/upslope flow will
contribute to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern WY and
southward along the DCVZ in CO. These storms will track into the
CAPE axis, where favorable deep-layer shear will promote supercells
capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes.


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