SPC Jul 11, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE CAROLINA SHORELINE...AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds
will remain possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the
southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and
Southeast. Scattered severe wind gusts are still possible over
southern Arizona late this afternoon through the evening.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains largely on track. The only
appreciable change made to the 20Z Day 1 Outlook was to trim severe
probabilities from the TX Panhandle. Here, subsidence and stability
persist, with MLCINH of at least -100 J/kg in place amid minimal
low-level convergence or upper support to encourage diurnal
thunderstorm development. However, a few nocturnal storms may form
due to impinging convective outflow from OK. Elsewhere across the
CONUS, only minor changes were made to the general thunder and
severe probabilities to reflect the latest observations and guidance
consensus.

..Squitieri.. 07/11/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026/

...Southern Plains/Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic...
Weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded and convectively
enhanced vorticity maxima (i.e., several MCVs evident in radar
mosaic/satellite imagery) will advance slowly eastward across the
mid MS Valley into the lower OH Valley/Midwest and TN Valley and
southern Appalachians. A developing thunderstorm cluster over the
Upstate of SC will likely move east towards the Carolina coast later
today. Ahead of this cluster, strong heating with temperatures
warming into the 90s with lower to mid 70s F dewpoints will result
in a moderately unstable airmass. Westerly low-level flow will
imply the wind risk will likely overspread the coast.

Isolated damaging winds may also occur farther north along/near a
weak synoptic front, but less instability is forecast with northward
extent into the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

Farther west, several clusters may evolve across the Mid South with
damaging gusts the primary severe hazard. Visible-satellite imagery
shows an MCV over northwest OK moving east. The airmass south of a
stalled frontal zone will undergo strong heating via clear skies
through mid afternoon. Short-term model guidance (HREF, HRRR-RRFS
time-lagged ensemble) show scattered storms developing across
north-central OK by 21-23 UTC. A well-mixed boundary layer will
support strong evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of severe
gusts with the more intense single and multicells. Have expanded
the Slight Risk to account for this increased confidence in a severe
threat across central OK.

...Southern Arizona...
With a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Four Corners, a weak
easterly mid-level flow regime is present today across the Sonoran
Desert. Very strong heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary
layer and this was depicted on the 12 UTC Phoenix raob, with an
accompanying 11.6 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio. Forecast
soundings show 20-kt easterly flow in the mid levels atop weak
westerly surface flow. Very steep low- to mid-level lapse rates and
inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will strongly favor evaporatively
cooled downdrafts with the more intense cores. Severe gusts 60-80
mph appear likely with the stronger microbursts. This activity will
likely transition from a few cells into an outflow-dominant cluster
during the evening and coincide with a greater prevalence of severe
gusts. Isolated hail may also occur with the stronger cores.


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SPC Jul 11, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OKLAHOMA INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds
will be possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the
southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and
Southeast. Scattered severe wind gusts are possible over southern
Arizona late this afternoon through the evening.

...Southern Plains/Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic...
Weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded and convectively
enhanced vorticity maxima (i.e., several MCVs evident in radar
mosaic/satellite imagery) will advance slowly eastward across the
mid MS Valley into the lower OH Valley/Midwest and TN Valley and
southern Appalachians. A developing thunderstorm cluster over the
Upstate of SC will likely move east towards the Carolina coast later
today. Ahead of this cluster, strong heating with temperatures
warming into the 90s with lower to mid 70s F dewpoints will result
in a moderately unstable airmass. Westerly low-level flow will
imply the wind risk will likely overspread the coast.

Isolated damaging winds may also occur farther north along/near a
weak synoptic front, but less instability is forecast with northward
extent into the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

Farther west, several clusters may evolve across the Mid South with
damaging gusts the primary severe hazard. Visible-satellite imagery
shows an MCV over northwest OK moving east. The airmass south of a
stalled frontal zone will undergo strong heating via clear skies
through mid afternoon. Short-term model guidance (HREF, HRRR-RRFS
time-lagged ensemble) show scattered storms developing across
north-central OK by 21-23 UTC. A well-mixed boundary layer will
support strong evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of severe
gusts with the more intense single and multicells. Have expanded
the Slight Risk to account for this increased confidence in a severe
threat across central OK.

...Southern Arizona...
With a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Four Corners, a weak
easterly mid-level flow regime is present today across the Sonoran
Desert. Very strong heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary
layer and this was depicted on the 12 UTC Phoenix raob, with an
accompanying 11.6 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio. Forecast
soundings show 20-kt easterly flow in the mid levels atop weak
westerly surface flow. Very steep low- to mid-level lapse rates and
inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will strongly favor evaporatively
cooled downdrafts with the more intense cores. Severe gusts 60-80
mph appear likely with the stronger microbursts. This activity will
likely transition from a few cells into an outflow-dominant cluster
during the evening and coincide with a greater prevalence of severe
gusts. Isolated hail may also occur with the stronger cores.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 07/11/2026


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SPC Jul 11, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds
will be possible today from parts of the southern Plains eastward
into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Severe wind gusts
may also occur across portions of southern Arizona.

...Southern Plains/Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic...
Weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded and convectively
enhanced vorticity maxima will advance slowly eastward today from
the mid MS Valley into the lower OH Valley/Midwest and TN Valley.
Ongoing thunderstorms across these regions this morning are being
aided by warm/moist advection from a modest west-southwesterly
low-level jet. Current expectations are for moderate instability to
develop by this afternoon along/south of a surface boundary that
will remain aligned generally southwest-northeast from parts of the
southern Plains into the lower MS Valley/TN Valley and Southeast.
Multiple thunderstorm clusters will likely form or persist later
today in this favorable thermodynamic regime. With modest westerly
mid-level flow present, east-southeastward propagation of
consolidated cold pools/outflow from these clusters will likely pose
a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds over a broad region as
low-level lapse rates steepen with filtered daytime heating.

The Slight Risk has been adjusted for both the influence of ongoing
morning convection and the potential for multiple clusters to spread
east-southeastward along a differential heating zone/instability
gradient across the Southeast and to the Atlantic Coast through
early evening. Isolated damaging winds may also occur farther north
along/near a weak synoptic front, but less instability is forecast
with northward extent into the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Farther
west across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, at least
isolated thunderstorms should develop along/south of the front this
afternoon, even though large-scale ascent will remain weaker across
these regions due to closer proximity to prominent mid-level ridging
across the Rockies. This activity will move slowly
east-southeastward while posing a threat for both severe winds and
hail, as moderate to strong instability and modest deep-layer shear
support loosely organized multicells.

...Southern Arizona...
Mid/upper-level ridging will build further over the Rockies and
Southwest today, with weak easterly mid-level flow present over
parts of AZ. Daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass
(surface dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s across southeast AZ) will
support weak to locally moderate instability as the boundary layer
becomes very deeply mixed. Thunderstorms that initially develop
across the higher terrain should spread west-southwestward into the
lower desert elevations through the afternoon/evening, with severe
wind gusts possible given ample DCAPE and inverted-v type soundings.
Isolated hail may also occur with the stronger cores.

..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/11/2026


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SPC Jul 11, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
OZARKS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible today from
parts of Ozarks eastward into the mid Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys. Severe wind gusts are also possible in southeast Arizona. A
few severe gusts may also occur in the southern Plains and from the
southern Appalachians to the Atlantic Seaboard.

...Mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/Ozarks/Southern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley today. At the surface, a very moist airmass will
be in place from the Ozarks eastward into the Tennessee Valley,
where dewpoints will be in the 70s F. Low-level convergence is
expected to increase by early afternoon ahead of the shortwave
trough in the mid Mississippi Valley. This combined with large-scale
ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will support scattered
thunderstorm development in the afternoon from eastern Missouri into
southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Additional storms may
develop along an east-to-west axis of low-level convergence from far
northern Arkansas into western and middle Tennessee. As surface
temperatures warm today, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 2000 to
3000 J/kg range over much of this airmass, with 0-6 km shear in the
20 to 30 knot range. This, along with steep low-level lapse rates,
will be favorable for severe wind gusts with the stronger
multicells. The threat should be concentrated in the afternoon and
early evening.

Additional more isolated storms are expected to form this afternoon
from the Texas Panhandle eastward into Oklahoma. Moderate
instability and steep low-level lapse rates will support an isolated
threat for severe gusts, mainly in the late afternoon.

...Southeast Arizona...
A moist airmass will be in place over southern Arizona today with
surface dewpoints in the 50s F. As surface temperatures warm,
moderate instability will likely develop over much of southeastern
Arizona, where SBCAPE should peak in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range.
Thunderstorms are expected to form along a north-to-south corridor
of low-level convergence near the Arizona and New Mexico state line,
with storms moving westward across southeast Arizona. At 00Z, RAP
forecast soundings have 0-6 km shear near 25 knots, with 0-3 km
lapse rates in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This environment will be
favorable for severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells,
especially if an organized line can develop.

...Southern Appalachians to Atlantic Seaboard...
A very moist airmass will be in place today from the southern
Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, where surface
dewpoints will be from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F. As surface
temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over much of
the region. Thunderstorms that form in the higher terrain and along
zones of convergence will have potential for isolated severe gusts.
The threat will be concentrated in the late afternoon as instability
and low-level lapse rates become maximized.

..Broyles/Halbert.. 07/11/2026


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