SPC Jun 7, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail are expected this
evening over parts of southern New England, and from the Ohio Valley
into the northern Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and severe wind gusts
(including gusts exceeding 75 mph) are also expected in the northern
High Plains.

...New England...
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing from New Jersey
northeastward into southern New England. This line is being
supported by large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level
shortwave trough moving eastward through the central Appalachians.
Ahead of the line, surface dewpoints across southern New England are
in the lower to mid 60s F, and the RAP is analyzing MUCAPE around
1000 J/kg. The WSR-88D VWPs at both New York and Boston have 0-6 km
shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, with 35 knots of flow 1 km above
the surface. This environment, along with steep low-level lapse
rates, evident on forecast soundings will be favorable for severe
wind gusts as the line moves eastward across southern New England
this evening.

Further north across the remainder of New England, scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing. These storms are located in the vicinity
of an instability maximum, where the RAP has MUCAPE in the 1000 to
1500 J/kg range. In addition, moderate deep-layer shear is present
which should support an isolated threat for severe gusts and hail.

...Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
The latest water vapor imagery shows west-northwesterly mid-level
flow over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold
front is located from far northern Indiana eastward to near Lake
Erie. To the south of the front, dewpoints are mostly in the lower
70s F, which is contributing to moderate instability. The RAP has
MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorms are
ongoing along and to the south of the instability axis. The
strongest deep-layer shear is analyzed from Ohio into southern
Pennsylvania, which should be the favored corridor for supercell
development. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible
with supercells. Multicells will also be capable of strong to severe
gusts.

Further west into the mid Mississippi Valley, a few strong to severe
storms will be possible near a pocket of moderate instability. Steep
low-level lapse rates will support a potential for isolated severe
gusts. Hail will also be possible.

...Northern High Plains...
Over the northern High Plains, water vapor imagery shows a mid-level
shortwave trough moving northeastward through the flow. Ahead of the
trough, a moist and unstable airmass is located across eastern
Montana and western North Dakota, where surface dewpoints are mostly
in the upper 50s and lower 60s F. Over this area, the RAP has MLCAPE
in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. Along the western edge of the
stronger instability, thunderstorms are expected to develop this
evening. The storms will move northeastward across northeastern
Montana and far northwestern North Dakota.

Forecast soundings to the northwest of Williston have 0-6 km shear
of 45 to 50 knots with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 9 C/km.
This will support the development of supercells with large hail.
Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with
the more dominant storms. In addition, low-level lapse rates will be
very steep supporting severe wind gusts. A few gusts above 75 mph
will be possible, especially if a cold pool can organize.

...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex...
A mid-level shortwave trough is currently evident on water vapor
imagery over northwest Texas, with a moist and unstable airmass in
place from central and north Texas into southern Oklahoma. Scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing along the western edge of the stronger
instability along the I-35 corridor from the northern Texas Hill
Country into the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro. Steep lapse rates and
moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support an isolated
wind-damage and hail threat for a couple more hours this evening.

Further east into the Ark-La-Tex, scattered storms are ongoing from
far eastern Oklahoma into far western Arkansas. These storms are
located along the northern edge of moderate instability, where the
RAP has MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings near Fort Smith
early this evening have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 200
m2/s2 suggesting an isolated tornado threat will exist. The tornado
threat should persist for a couple more hours.

..Broyles.. 06/07/2026


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SPC Jun 6, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM OHIO TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail are
expected this afternoon/evening from the Ohio Valley to the northern
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Large hail and severe wind
gusts are also expected in the northern High Plains late this
afternoon/evening.

...OH Valley into New England through late evening...
A surface cyclone will move eastward across southern QC this
afternoon and into northern New England tonight, in advance of a
midlevel shortwave trough over the Great Lakes. An associated
surface cold front will progress southward into the OH Valley and
southeastward to near the southern New England and northern
Mid-Atlantic coasts by early Sunday. A convective cluster is
ongoing as of midday in OH to the south of the cold front, and it
appears likely that these storms will be maintained through the
afternoon as surface temperatures continue to warm and MLCAPE
increases into the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Sufficient buoyancy, along
with steepening low-level lapse rates and gradually strengthening
midlevel flow, will result in the potential for downward momentum
transfer and wind damage from eastern OH across PA through the
afternoon (potentially reaching Philadelphia-New York City by this
evening). Otherwise, additional storm development will be possible
later this afternoon along the cold front from the OH Valley into
NY, where a mix of supercells and multicell clusters will be capable
of producing damaging winds, isolated large hail, and a tornado or
two.

...Northern High Plains late this afternoon through late evening...
A midlevel trough will continue eastward from WA/OR to the northern
Rockies, with downstream lee cyclogenesis expected across southeast
MT. Forecast soundings suggest surface temperatures will need to
reach ~90 F to weaken convective inhibition and support thunderstorm
development along the stalled front across northeast MT/northwest ND
late this afternoon/evening. Forecast wind profiles support both
multicell clusters and supercells, and steep lapse rates through
most of the column will favor both severe outflow gusts (up to 75
mph) and large hail (up to 2 inches in diameter) with a mix of
high-based supercells and multicell clusters.

...TX/OK this afternoon...
Pockets of surface heating from central/northwest TX into southern
OK, near and south of a weak surface low and MCV, will support
additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Isolated
wind damage and marginally severe hail will be the main concerns
this afternoon.

..Thompson/Chalmers.. 06/06/2026


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SPC Jun 6, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM INDIANA INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail are
expected to develop later today from parts of the lower Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley into southern New England. Large hail and severe
wind gusts are also expected in the northern High Plains and
southern Plains.

...Indiana to Southern New England...
Morning water vapor loop shows a deepening upper trough over the
Great Lakes region. This trough and an associated mid-level speed
max will spread across the upper Ohio Valley into New England this
afternoon and tonight. Strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of
the trough has led to multiple clusters of ongoing thunderstorms
from eastern IL into parts of OH/PA/NY. One or more of these
clusters, along with new development by early afternoon, is expected
to intensify and spread across the SLGT risk region. Forecast
soundings suggest sufficient CAPE and low-level lapse rates to
support a risk of damaging wind gusts with this activity. Overnight
CAM solutions continue to vary on the likely corridor of greatest
concern. However, there is the potential for a rather widespread
damaging wind event across parts of PA/NY/NJ this afternoon/evening
if sufficient heating and mesoscale organization of the clusters
occur.

...Northern High Plains...
A large upper ridge is in place today over the High Plains region.
A southerly low-level jet is expected to intensify by early evening
as an upper trough approaches and low-level cyclogenesis occurs over
southeast MT. This should encourage the development of evening
thunderstorms across eastern MT tracking into western ND overnight.
It is unclear whether the bulk of these storms will be just west of
the warm sector and elevated, or will be surface-based. Regardless,
large hail is the primary concern.

...Southern Plains...
A weak upper low is tracking northeastward from west TX into
Oklahoma this morning. A band of stronger winds aloft to the east of
the low, coupled with pockets of daytime heating and ample moisture,
will promote damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest storms.

..Hart/Wendt.. 06/06/2026


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SPC Jun 6, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are
expected to develop today from parts of the lower Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Large hail and severe wind gusts are
also expected in the northern High Plains. Strong wind gusts and
hail may also occur in parts of the southern Plains.

...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Northeast...
An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level jet streak will
move eastward into the lower Great Lakes today. A cold front will
advance southeastward into the lower Great Lakes, with surface
dewpoints ahead of the front in the mid to upper 60s F. An axis of
moderate instability appears likely to develop well ahead of the
front by early to mid afternoon. As this happens, convective
initiation will take place near this axis of instability from
northern Indiana eastward into northern Pennsylvania and
northeastward into southern New York. Convective coverage will
gradually expand, as a broken line segment moves southeastward into
the Ohio Valley and toward the coast of the Mid-Atlantic and New
England.

RAP forecast soundings at 21Z near the instability axis over
northern Ohio and southwestern Pennsylvania have 0-6 km shear near
45 knots, which could support supercell development. Supercells will
be capable of severe wind gusts, hail and an isolated tornado
threat. During the late afternoon, a transition to more linear
development is expected, which should result in an increased
wind-damage threat.

Further east from central Pennsylvania into southern New England,
forecast soundings at 21Z have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot
range with 0-3 km lapse rates between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This
environment will support severe storm development. Although an
isolated supercell will be possible, the most likely mode will be
linear, favoring wind-damage as the primary threat. The potential
for severe gusts will be maximized from south-central Pennsylvania
northeastward into far southern New York. The line segment is
expected to reach the Mid-Atlantic and New England Coasts by early
evening.

...Northern High Plains...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow over the northern High Plains will
become more southwesterly during the day, as an upper-level trough
moves through the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a low will
deepen over the northern High Plains, with a trough located
northeastward into far northeast Montana. As surface temperatures
warm today, moderate instability will develop near the surface
trough. This, combined with increasing low-level convergence, will
result in scattered convective initiation. Multiple storms are
forecast to move northeastward across the northern High Plains
during the late afternoon and early evening.

RAP forecast soundings near the surface trough in far northeast
Montana at 00Z have MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near
35 knots. Surface-temperature dewpoint spreads are large with low to
mid-level lapse rates in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This should be
favorable for high-based supercells capable of large hail and severe
wind gusts. The severe threat will likely persist into the early to
mid evening.

...Southern Plains...
A mid-level low will move across west Texas today. At the surface, a
moist airmass will be in place over the southern Plains, where
dewpoints will be from the upper 60s into the mid 70s F. This will
result in the development of moderate instability by afternoon. To
the east of the mid-level low, low-level convergence is forecast to
become maximized over parts of west-central Texas and southern
Oklahoma. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop from late afternoon into the evening. The instability
combined with steep low-level lapse rates (exceeding 7 C/km) will
support an isolated threat for severe wind gusts and hail.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 06/06/2026


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