SPC Jul 9, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
evening from parts of the central Plains into the mid Missouri and
upper Mississippi Valleys. Isolated severe gusts may also occur in
parts of the northern High Plains, in eastern North Carolina, and in
southeast Arizona.

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Upper Mississippi Valleys...
At mid-levels, a subtle shortwave trough is evident on water vapor
imagery over the central High Plains. Ahead of this feature, a moist
airmass is located from the central Plains into upper Mississippi
Valley, where surface dewpoints range from the 60s F west to the
lower to mid 70s F east. A front is located from southern Nebraska
east-northeastward into central and northeast Iowa, where low-level
convergence is maximized and scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms are ongoing. Ahead of the front, the RAP has an axis
of moderate instability with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3500 J/kg. The
instability, combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep low
to mid-level lapse rates, will support a threat for severe wind
gusts and hail. The threat will be concentrated along and just ahead
of the more intense short line segments.

Further west into the central High Plains, a surface trough is
located from western Kansas extending northwestward into southwest
Nebraska. Low-level convergence is maximized further west into
eastern Colorado and southeast Wyoming, where an outflow boundary is
located and a broken line segment is ongoing. Ahead of the storms,
winds are backed to the east and surface dewpoints are in the mid to
upper 50s F. This is contributing to moderate instability. In
addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Denver has 40 knots of 0-6 km shear,
suggesting that supercells and organized line segments will be
possible. The RAP also shows 0-3 km lapse rates exceeding 7.5 C/km.
This environment will support a potential for severe wind gusts this
evening. A swath of wind damage will be possible across eastern
Colorado, northwest Kansas and southern Nebraska, once a more
sustained cold pool becomes established.

...Northern High Plains/Intermountain West...
A mid-level shortwave ridge will move through the northern High
Plains this evening. Beneath the ridge, a pocket of moderate
instability is located across central and northeast Montana where
the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. To the southwest
of the instability max, thunderstorms are developing in the higher
terrain of central Montana. These storms will move eastward into the
stronger instability. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level
lapse rates will support an isolated threat for severe wind gusts.

...Eastern North Carolina...
A very moist airmass is located over eastern North Carolina, where
surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F, and the RAP has a
pocket of moderate instability (MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg).
Scattered thunderstorms have developed near this pocket of
instability. Low-level lapse rates will remain steep for a couple
more hours suggesting potential for isolated severe gusts.

...Southeast Arizona...
The latest RAP has an south-to-north axis of instability analyzed
across southeast Arizona. Near this axis, low-level convergence is
maximized and 0-3 km lapse rates are very steep. Thunderstorms that
develop near this axis of instability may produce a few severe wind
gusts early this evening.

..Broyles.. 07/09/2026


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SPC Jul 8, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHWEST KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains, and from
the Missouri Valley into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated
severe gusts may also occur from the northern Great Basin into the
northern High Plains, from North Carolina into southern Virginia,
and over southeast Arizona.

...WI/MN/IA...
A fast-moving shortwave trough is moving eastward across ND. As
this system approaches the western Great Lakes region this
afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form along a surface
boundary extending from southeast MN into central WI. A moist and
very unstable air mass will be present along the boundary, aiding in
the development of a few severe storms. Sufficient deep-layer shear
will promote supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and
hail. An isolated tornado or two is also possible. This activity
will build westward along the boundary into northern IA by early
evening. A cluster or two of this activity could congeal into
bowing structures with a continued severe wind risk this evening.

...High Plains...
The upper ridge over the Rockies has weakened today, resulting in
stronger westerly flow into parts of WY/CO/NE/KS. Scattered
high-based thunderstorms are expected to form by mid-afternoon over
the mountains and foothills of CO/southern WY and spread eastward
into the Plains. Moisture will be limited near the foothills, but
weak easterly surface winds will maintain 40s dewpoints in eastern
CO, leading to convective intensification. Most CAM solutions show
thunderstorms capable of locally severe wind gusts tracking eastward
through the evening into parts of southwest NE and western KS before
dissipating after midnight.

...Northern Great Basin/Northern Rockies...
Moderately strong westerly flow aloft, steep low-level lapse rates,
and ample mid-level moisture will result in conditions favorable for
scattered high-based thunderstorms over a relatively broad area this
afternoon and evening. Gusty/damaging winds will be possible with
the strongest storms.

...Southeast AZ...
Widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to form over
the higher terrain of southeast AZ and propagate south-southwestward
through the early evening. Inverted-v profiles will promote a risk
of gusty/damaging winds in a few of the storms.

..Hart/Chalmers.. 07/08/2026


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SPC Jul 8, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO...FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHWEST
KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains, and from
the Missouri Valley into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated
severe gusts may also occur from the northern Great Basin into the
northern High Plains and from North Carolina into southern Virginia.

...Central High Plains across the central Plains and Mid MO Valley
into the Upper Midwest...
Early-morning surface analysis reveals a cold front extending
southwestward from north-central MN to a low southeast SD, where the
front then becomes oriented more westerly across southern SD before
arcing back northwestward across northeast WY and central MT. This
front is expected to make gradual southward/southeastward progress
today, before becoming more diffuse under the influence of storm
outflow late in the period. Ample low-level moisture will be place
ahead of this front by the late afternoon, with dewpoints likely
ranging from the low/mid 60s across central NE into the upper
60s/low 70s across northern IA, southern MN, and northern WI. The
strongest buoyancy is expected from eastern NE into
western/northwestern IA, where the best overlap between the higher
surface dewpoints and the eastern extent of the steep mid-level
lapse rates exists.

Thunderstorm development is expected first from the
eastern/northeastern IA into the Upper Midwest, where convergence
along the front will be augmented by large-scale ascent attendant to
an approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. A few stronger
updrafts are possible in this region, but more modest buoyancy
should limit updraft persistence, with a quick trend towards a more
outflow-dominant storm mode. Stronger buoyancy will support more
robust updrafts from central IA western into central NE, although
modest deep-layer vertical shear should limit organization in this
area as well. Stronger updrafts could contribute to stronger
downdrafts, as well as isolated hail, with a slightly higher overall
severe potential here than areas farther northeast.

A somewhat separate regime is anticipated farther west across the
central High Plains. Here, moist, post-frontal, upslope flow will
result in moderate buoyancy across the NE Panhandle into eastern WY,
supporting airmass destabilization and late afternoon thunderstorm
development. Moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear, resulting
from easterly low-level flow beneath moderate northwesterly flow
aloft, is anticipated over this region as well. An initially
cellular mode is likely, with some large hail possible, with fairly
quick upscale growth likely. High cloud bases atop a warm and deeply
mixed boundary layer will support strong outflow, which, when
combined with the strong deep-layer shear, could result in one or
more organized bowing segments.

These two regimes come together across south-central
NE/north-central KS overnight, amid a strengthen low-level jet, but
predictability on the overall convective evolution is limited.
Seemingly some severe potential could linger across
south-central/southeast NE into north-central/northeast KS
overnight.

...Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to progress through the
northern periphery of the upper ridging in place over the Four
Corners vicinity. Mid-level moisture associated with this wave
coupled with strong heating will result in airmass destabilization
and the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms.
High storm bases atop a deeply mixed boundary layer will support the
potential for damaging gusts with the stronger storms.

...North Carolina/Southern Virginia..
A very moist airmass will be in place today from the Mid-Atlantic
southward into the Carolinas. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper
70s F will contribute to an axis of moderate to strong instability
across parts of North Carolina and southern Virginia. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will develop in the foothills of the
Appalachians, with the storms moving eastward into the lower
elevations during the afternoon. The instability combined with steep
low-level lapse rates will support an isolated wind-damage threat.

...Southern AZ...
Increased mid-level moisture will support thunderstorm development
across the higher terrain of eastern AZ during the afternoon.
Westward drift of the upper ridge will result in modest easterly
mid-level flow over the region, with some potential for the
thunderstorms to progress westward into the lower elevations during
the late afternoon. A few strong gusts are possible but uncertainty
regarding coverage precludes introducing any probabilities with this
outlook.

..Mosier/Thornton.. 07/08/2026


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SPC Jul 8, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains, and from
the Missouri Valley into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated
severe gusts may also occur in parts of the northern High Plains and
from North Carolina into southern Virginia.

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Upper Mississippi Valley...
At mid-levels, heights will fall today across much of the
north-central U.S. as a subtle shortwave trough moves
east-southeastward across the region. At the surface, a cold front
will advance southeastward into the central Plains and mid Missouri
Valley by afternoon. Along and ahead of the front, surface dewpoints
will range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. As surface
temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop along this
west-southwest to east-northeast corridor. Low-level convergence
will be maximized along and near the front, which will be the
primary focus for convective initiation. Scattered thunderstorms
will form in the afternoon and move east-southeastward across the
instability corridor, with convective development continuing through
much of the evening. The instability, combined with moderate
deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates, will support a
threat for severe wind gusts. The potential for severe wind will be
greatest with any line segment that can become sustained and
organized. Although there is some uncertainty concerning where the
greatest threat will be, it seems possible that a damaging wind
swath could occur in parts of southern Nebraska this evening, where
a 30 percent wind probability has been added.

Further northeast into central Iowa and south-central Wisconsin,
convective coverage is expected to be a bit more widely spaced.
However, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for a severe threat as
low-level lapse rates and instability become maximized late this
afternoon. The primary threat will be for severe wind gusts, with
the threat being associated with short intense line segments.

...Northern High Plains...
At the surface, a lee trough will develop today from eastern Wyoming
into eastern Montana. Along and near the trough, surface dewpoints
in the 50s F will contribute to the development of moderate
instability by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be
relatively weak, low-level convergence near the trough will aid
convective initiation. Thunderstorms will also develop in the higher
terrain and move eastward into the lower elevations. The
instability, combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep low
to mid-level lapse rates will likely support a potential for
isolated severe gusts.

...North Carolina/Southern Virginia.
At the surface, a very moist airmass will be in place today from the
Mid-Atlantic southward into the Carolinas. Surface dewpoints in the
mid to upper 70s F will contribute to an axis of moderate to strong
instability across parts of North Carolina and southern Virginia.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop in the foothills of
the Appalachians, with the storms moving eastward into the lower
elevations during the afternoon. The instability combined with steep
low-level lapse rates will support an isolated wind-damage threat.

..Broyles/Moore.. 07/08/2026


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