SPC Jan 26, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely.

...Synopsis...
Recent surface analysis centers an expansive 1040 mb high over OK.
Cold and stable airmass and offshore trajectories associated with
this high will preclude thunderstorm development across much of the
central and eastern CONUS. The only exception is along and ahead of
a decaying cold front as it moves through central and southern FL.
Regional radar imagery currently shows some deeper convection just
ahead of this front over central FL, where the dewpoints are in the
70s. However, even with this low-level moisture in place, more than
isolated deep convection appears unlikely due to warm mid-level
temperatures and associated poor lapse rates. A few deeper updrafts
capable of lightning could still occur briefly, particularly on the
southeast FL Coast where high temperatures will reach the low 80s,
but overall lightning coverage is still expected to be less than 10
percent.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/26/2026


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SPC Jan 26, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely.

...Discussion...

Dominant polar air mass will build southeast across lower latitudes
which will force a cold front off the southern FL Peninsula later
this afternoon. Poor lapse rates and weak large-scale forcing do not
favor deep convection capable of generating lightning. Thunderstorm
probabilities remain too low to warrant an outlook this period.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/26/2026


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SPC Jan 26, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Strong 500mb speed max is translating across WV early this evening.
As a result, primary corridor of warm advection is now focusing
across the Middle Atlantic/southern New England where negligible
buoyancy is noted. Deep convection has been confined to the trailing
cold front across portions of the Southeast, and lightning with this
activity has been decreasing over the last few hours. While 00z
sounding from JAX exhibits around 300 J/kg MLCAPE, low-level
convergence will gradually focus off the Atlantic coast later this
evening as the front surges across this region. Given the limited
instability, and the primary focus for ascent well north of this
region, severe probabilities appear low the rest of tonight.

..Darrow.. 01/26/2026


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SPC Jan 25, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will continue across portions of the Southeast
states this afternoon, with damaging gusts and a few tornadoes
possible mainly across southern Georgia and northern Florida.

...20z Update...
A northeast/southwest-oriented quasi-linear band of convection with
embedded bows and occasional transient circulations continues to
progress eastward at mid-afternoon across southwest Georgia, extreme
southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Scenario will remain
favorable, particularly over the next several hours (through late
afternoon) for damaging winds and a tornado risk across
southwest/toward south-central Georgia as well as nearby north
Florida, especially near a surface wave and along/south of a
northward-shifting warm front. Latest WSR-88D VWP data from
Tallahassee continues to imply 250+ m2/s2 0-1km SRH, while
middle/upper 60s F surface dewpoints, with a few 70F observations,
are becoming more common within the inland-expanding warm sector.

..Guyer.. 01/25/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026/

...AL/GA/FL...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough and associated 100kt jet over AR. This feature will track
rapidly eastward across the TN Valley today, with large scale
forcing overspreading the Gulf Coast states. This will aid in the
development of robust thunderstorms along the cold front now
extending from central AL into southeast LA. Ahead of the front,
southerly surface winds will transport Gulf moisture northward and
result in weak but sufficient destabilization for a risk of a few
severe storms. Vertical shear profiles will be favorable for a few
tornadoes if semi-discrete structures can form along/ahead of the
developing QLCS. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts are the
main concern. Refer to MCD #0057 for further details.


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