SPC Nov 21, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHEAST OK...WESTERN/CENTRAL AR...FAR
NORTHWEST LA...

...SUMMARY...
Storms capable of locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado or
two remain possible this evening from parts of the southern Plains
into Arkansas.

...Southern Plains into Arkansas...
Multiple areas of convection are ongoing across parts of the
southern Plains this evening, in advance of a mid/upper-level trough
that will continue to eject northeastward tonight. The greatest
remaining severe threat appears to reside from parts of
south-central into northeast TX, where MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg
and strong deep-layer shear remain in place immediately downstream
of ongoing storms. At least transient supercell structures will be
possible through the evening, with a threat of locally damaging wind
and possibly marginal hail. Modest enhancement of low-level
hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH of 100-150 m2/s2) could support a brief
tornado threat. Some uptick in the damaging-wind threat could occur
with any upscale growth, before convection weakens as it encounters
diminishing buoyancy with eastward extent. See MCD 2216 for more
information regarding the short-term threat in this area.

Some storm redevelopment will be possible late tonight across
central TX, as an initially quasi-stationary boundary begins to move
eastward as a cold front. Buoyancy and deep-layer will remain
sufficient for some storm organization, and an isolated severe
threat could persist across this region overnight.

..Dean.. 11/21/2025


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TPNbLy

SPC Nov 20, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today into this
evening across the southern Plains into Arkansas. Large hail,
damaging winds, and a tornado or two all appear possible.

...20Z Update...
No changes were made with this update. An upgrade to Slight Risk was
considered for parts of south-central into north-central TX ahead of
the northeast/southwest-oriented band of storms. Here, diurnal
heating has allowed temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to
lower 80s amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints -- resulting in a
moderately unstable warm sector. While this instability and around
50 kt of effective shear will conditionally favor embedded supercell
structures, current thinking is that deep-layer southwesterly
flow/shear parallel to the larger-scale cold pool will result in
undercutting and training of storms. Therefore, held off on an
upgrade at this time. Nevertheless, damaging gusts, sporadic large
hail, and perhaps a tornado or two will all be possible with any
longer-lived storms -- especially any that can form immediately
ahead of the convective band and related cold pool.

..Weinman.. 11/20/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025/

...Southern Plains to Arkansas...
Showers/thunderstorms remain common at late morning with widespread
cloud cover with the warm sector across most of Texas and Oklahoma.
This precedes a mid/upper-level trough currently located over
Arizona/New Mexico and far northern Mexico, which will continue to
eject northeastward toward the southern High Plains. A surface low
will gradually deepen across the south-central High Plains and
develop eastward through the period.

It still seems likely that convection and widespread cloud cover
will persist through the day, resulting in generally modest diurnal
heating and weakening mid-level lapse rates with time. While
enhanced deep-layer shear will remain across the warm sector owing
to persistent strong southwesterly mid-level flow, the potential for
organized thunderstorms downstream or in the wake of ongoing morning
convection remains uncertain, particularly in the context of
somewhat stronger low-level winds more likely to interface where
convective overturning has occurred.

Regardless, some potential for isolated supercells and/or organized
multicell clusters will exist this afternoon/evening particularly
across portions of central and possibly into parts of
North/northeast Texas. This includes isolated severe hail and
damaging winds, and a modest enlargement of low-level hodographs
could also support a tornado risk.

Farther west, some high-resolution guidance continues to show the
development of additional strong/locally severe storms across
east/southeast New Mexico into west Texas/southwest Oklahoma, in
closer proximity to the ejecting upper trough. This convection could
pose a threat of strong gusts and perhaps some hail, but it remains
uncertain as to whether sufficient instability will develop to
support anything beyond a very isolated/marginal-type severe risk.


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TPNRK3

SPC Nov 20, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today into this
evening across the southern Plains into Arkansas. Large hail,
damaging winds, and a tornado or two all appear possible.

...Southern Plains to Arkansas...
Showers/thunderstorms remain common at late morning with widespread
cloud cover with the warm sector across most of Texas and Oklahoma.
This precedes a mid/upper-level trough currently located over
Arizona/New Mexico and far northern Mexico, which will continue to
eject northeastward toward the southern High Plains. A surface low
will gradually deepen across the south-central High Plains and
develop eastward through the period.

It still seems likely that convection and widespread cloud cover
will persist through the day, resulting in generally modest diurnal
heating and weakening mid-level lapse rates with time. While
enhanced deep-layer shear will remain across the warm sector owing
to persistent strong southwesterly mid-level flow, the potential for
organized thunderstorms downstream or in the wake of ongoing morning
convection remains uncertain, particularly in the context of
somewhat stronger low-level winds more likely to interface where
convective overturning has occurred.

Regardless, some potential for isolated supercells and/or organized
multicell clusters will exist this afternoon/evening particularly
across portions of central and possibly into parts of
North/northeast Texas. This includes isolated severe hail and
damaging winds, and a modest enlargement of low-level hodographs
could also support a tornado risk.

Farther west, some high-resolution guidance continues to show the
development of additional strong/locally severe storms across
east/southeast New Mexico into west Texas/southwest Oklahoma, in
closer proximity to the ejecting upper trough. This convection could
pose a threat of strong gusts and perhaps some hail, but it remains
uncertain as to whether sufficient instability will develop to
support anything beyond a very isolated/marginal-type severe risk.

..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/20/2025


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TPN9YR

SPC Nov 20, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS...AND ALSO ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ AND
SOUTHERN NM...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across the southern
Plains into parts of the Ozarks through tonight. Large hail should
be the main threat, but occasional gusty winds and perhaps a tornado
may also occur.

...Southern Plains into parts of the Ozarks...
Widely scattered storms have developed this evening across parts of
west-central/northwest TX, generally near and to the south/east of a
surface boundary draped from central OK into southwest TX. Gradually
increasing ascent associated with an approaching mid/upper-level
trough will result in additional storm development through the
evening across parts of the southern Plains, where a seasonably
moist airmass is in place. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, moderate
deep-layer shear, and elongated mid/upper-level hodographs (as noted
on regional 00Z soundings) will support isolated supercells with a
threat of large hail and locally gusty winds. A brief tornado will
also be possible, especially across southwest TX later this evening,
where backed surface winds and a modest nocturnal low-level jet will
lead to some enhancement of effective SRH.

Overnight, a somewhat separate zone of primarily elevated storm
development is possible from northern OK/southeast KS into parts of
the Ozarks, within a low-level warm-advection regime. MUCAPE of
near/above 1000 J/kg and sufficient effective shear could support an
isolated hail threat with this activity.

...Southwest...
Multiple storm clusters may continue through much of the evening
into late tonight across parts of AZ/NM, in association with the
upper trough moving across the Southwest. MUCAPE will generally
remain weak (near or below 500 J/kg), but favorable shear and
cooling temperatures aloft could still support small to near-severe
hail and locally gusty winds with the strongest storms.

..Dean.. 11/20/2025


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TPMXZP