SPC Jan 10, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated risk for damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado will
continue through the early afternoon from the central Gulf Coast
northeastward into the southern Appalachians.

...MS/AL/GA/FL Panhandle...
Radar mosaic late this morning shows an extensive convective band
from the SC/GA/NC border southwestward to the MS coast. The airmass
immediately ahead of the squall line is seasonably moist with
dewpoints ranging from near 70 deg F along the coast to the lower
60s in northeast GA. Relatively weak lapse rates and meager
buoyancy were sampled by the 12 UTC FFC (Atlanta, GA) raob.
However, the more north-south segments of the squall line are more
favorably oriented to strong southwesterly mean flow fields across
the region. As a result, the risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado or two will continue through the early afternoon near
the AL-GA border. A lower perceived risk for severe likely exists
farther northeast into northern GA/Upstate SC where buoyancy is
weaker, and farther southwest into southern AL and the Gulf Coast
where the convective line is further displaced from stronger
forcing/low-level mass response.

A frontal segment pushing east across the OH Valley and Mid South
will consolidate with a front segment along the northwest Gulf
Coast, and sweep east across the much of the Southeast through
tonight and reach the FL Big Bend and Carolina coast by daybreak.

..Smith/Halbert.. 01/10/2026


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SPC Jan 10, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO WESTERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are forecast this morning and early
afternoon from LA/MS into AL/GA.

...LA/MS/AL/GA...
Strong and deep southwesterly flow is present today over much of the
southeast US, with a well-defined baroclinic zone extending from
central LA across parts of MS/AL into northern GA. Thunderstorms
have been intensifying in the past few hours across southeast MS,
where multiple supercell structures and a couple of confirmed
tornadoes have occurred. This activity is expected to persist for
several more hours, tracking across parts of central AL and
eventually into western GA. Low-level winds and shear have become
sufficiently strong to support risk of a strong tornado or two along
this corridor.

By early afternoon, storms will spread eastward into GA and upstate
SC, where very weak instability will limit the severe threat.

..Hart/Kerr.. 01/10/2026


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SPC Jan 10, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are forecast across the central Gulf
Coast and Southeast.

...Central Gulf Coast/Southeast...

Split stream currently noted over the CONUS will gradually evolve
into a deep long-wave trough over the eastern U.S. by the end of the
period. Latest water-vapor imagery supports this with a pronounced
short-wave trough digging southeast into the upper OH Valley, and a
less amplified short wave ejecting northeast toward the lower OH
Valley. Strong large-scale height falls will spread across the upper
Midwest/OH Valley region during the day, but much weaker
falls/forcing will be noted across low latitudes.

Late this evening, modified Gulf air mass had returned to much of
the lower MS Valley where upper 60s-lower 70s dew points are
observed south of the synoptic warm front. Considerable amount of
convection has been noted along/north of this boundary and this
should prevent appreciable air mass recovery across the northern
Gulf states through the period. Over the last few hours, back edge
of the convection along the cold front has gradually increased in
intensity across southeast TX. This front will advance east into MS
by the start of the period, then shift across AL/northwestern GA by
early evening as the weak surface low lifts into the middle
Atlantic.

One area of concern is the amount of convection currently observed
across the northern Gulf states. This may suppress the northern
extent of severe potential a bit more south than currently reflected
in this forecast. If buoyancy can not return to this region then an
adjustment may be warranted at 13z. Otherwise, strong shear and
seasonally moist boundary layer suggest a risk for tornadoes with
any supercells that develop across this region. The primary concern
for wind/tornadoes will be through early afternoon, after which the
LLJ will shift well northeast of this area and forcing/low-level
shear will weaken.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/10/2026


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SPC Jan 10, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across southeast Texas
into the central Gulf states tonight. A few tornadoes and damaging
wind gusts are possible.

...01z Update...

Notable short-wave trough is beginning to eject northeast across the
central Plains early this evening. Water vapor supports this with
the center of circulation near DDC. 500mb speed max affiliated with
this feature will strengthen and translate across north TX-southern
MO-central IN by the end of the period. This evolution will result
in negligible height changes along/near the Gulf coast overnight.

As this feature advances east, LLJ is expected to increase across LA
later this evening, strengthening into northern AL by 10/12z.
Low-level warm advection has proven instrumental in convective
development much of the day with scattered thunderstorms persisting
across the lower MS Valley. However, some increase in convection
appears to be occurring across east TX as the southern influence of
the ejecting short wave glances this region. Earlier thoughts
regarding severe potential remain. 00z sounding from LCH exhibits
strong shear and ample buoyancy for supercells. Latest thinking is
scattered-numerous showers/thunderstorms will persist along a
corridor from northern LA into central MS with the potential for
some uptick in intensity overnight as the LLJ strengthens.

..Darrow.. 01/10/2026


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