SPC Jun 23, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Supercells and multicell clusters will continue to produce
significant-severe wind/hail across the central High Plains this
evening. Severe gusts and widn damage may accompany storms near the
Mid-Atlantic coast through late evening. Tonight, isolated severe
storms may occur across the southern Plains into the Middle
Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will advance toward the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard
while a pronounced mid-level impulse ejects into the
central/northern High Plains. At the surface, a trough will impinge
on the East Coast while ongoing/developing storms continue to
progress along a baroclinic boundary, from the Mid-MS Valley
northwestward along the High Plains. Strong shear and buoyancy in
both of these regimes will continue to foster severe potential into
the evening hours.

...Mid Atlantic into the Southeast...
A well defined QLCS is tracking across the Mid-Atlantic, with more
sporadic pulse-cellular/multicellular storms progressing over the
Southeast. The QLCS will move offshore over the next hour,
accompanied by a damaging gust threat. Across the Southeast,
multicellular storms supported by the remnants of daytime heating or
localized lift along MCVs appear to be on the wane. Nonetheless,
1000-2000 J/kg remnant MLCAPE will support localized wet downburst
potential with some of the stronger storms over the next couple of
hours. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out with MCV storms
across the TN Valley.

...High Plains...
Supercells remain in progress across the central to northern High
Plains, where 2-3 inch in diameter hail and gusts well exceeding 75
mph have occurred. 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE, driven by 8+ C/km mid-level
lapse rates, precede many of these supercells, so a severe wind/hail
threat will continue with these storms for at least a few more
hours. A tornado is also possible for supercells that remain inflow
dominant. There is some chance that supercells could grow upscale
into an MCS, which would traverse a surface boundary across the
southern High Plains into the Southern Plains. Confidence in this
scenario is quite low. However, should this evolution occur, severe
gusts would be possible.

...Southern Plains into the Middle MS Valley...
Thunderstorms are initiating along a surface boundary, draped from
the TX Panhandle into central MS. 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-50
kts of effective bulk shear overspreads this boundary, which would
promote multicells and supercells with a severe wind/hail threat
wherever storms mature. Nonetheless, forcing along this boundary is
weak, so the severe threat should remain isolated through tonight.

..Squitieri.. 06/23/2026


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SPC Jun 22, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds
and perhaps a couple of tornadoes should occur this afternoon and
evening across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across the
northern/central High Plains, with large to very large hail and a
tornado or two.

...20z Update Central High Plains...
Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. Strong to severe
storms, including supercells, are developing across parts of WY and
CO and should spread east/southeastward this afternoon and evening.
Steep mid-level lapse rates and the discrete mode should favor
significant severe hail with these storms into this evening. A
tornado or two is also possible, focused mostly along the Cheyenne
Ridge where stronger low-level shear is being observed.

...Mid Atlantic...
Several rounds of storms remain likely this afternoon and evening
beneath the strong mid-level zonal flow aloft. Damaging winds appear
to be the most likely threat with scattered but mostly cellular
storms through this evening. A tornado or two remains possible. This
is most likely near the warm front across northern NJ and southern
Long Island where stronger and backed low-level flow is supporting
100-150 0-1km SRH.

Some guidance shows an increase in storm clustering and stronger
outflow gusts from northern VA into northern MD/DE and southern
PA/NJ this evening. Should this occur, a locally more favorable
corridor of damaging winds could develop. However, this remains very
uncertain given the more scattered and cellular convection observed
so far.

...TX/OK...
Some mode signal exists for isolated convective development this
afternoon along the trailing outflow boundary across north TX from
the morning MCS. Very large buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates
could support hail with these storms. However, the lack of broader
large-scale ascent suggests more isolated coverage through this
evening.

..Lyons.. 06/22/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026/

...Mid Atlantic...
Relatively fast zonal flow is present today from the OH Valley into
the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US, with a shortwave trough evident
over OH/MI. As this feature tracks eastward, it will push a surface
cold front southward across the central Appalachians and into the
Mid-Atlantic region. Considerable clouds are present ahead of the
front from KY/WV into VA/PA/NJ, limiting destabilization and
confidence in the details of where clusters of storms may form later
today. However, given the relatively strong winds aloft and
dewpoints in the 60s, it would seem likely that scattered strong to
severe storms will occur, capable of locally damaging winds and
perhaps a tornado.

...TN/MS/AL/GA...
The remnants of a severe overnight MCS are over AR/west TN/northern
MS. This system has considerable mesoscale organization with an MCV
noted over eastern AR. A very moist and unstable air mass is in
place ahead of this system over northern MS/AL, where heating into
the mid 80s will foster thunderstorm intensification this afternoon.
Damaging winds are the main concern with these storms, but a
low-level jet feature associated with the MCV could result in a few
supercell structures and the risk of a tornado or two. Activity
will track into north GA this evening. Refer to MD #1252 for
further details.

...Central High Plains...
Similar to yesterday, low-clouds are slowly burning off across the
High Plains of eastern CO and western SD/NE/KS, where moderate CAPE
values will develop by mid-afternoon. Easterly/upslope flow will
contribute to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern WY and
southward along the DCVZ in CO. These storms will track into the
CAPE axis, where favorable deep-layer shear will promote supercells
capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes.


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SPC Jun 22, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds
and perhaps a couple of tornadoes should occur mainly this afternoon
and evening across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast.
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across the
northern/central High Plains, with large to very large hail the main
threat.

...ArkLaTex into the Mid-South and Southeast...
A weakened but persistent MCS continues this morning across AR into
northeast TX. This cluster will track east-southeastward towards the
lower MS Valley over the next few hours while gradually weakening.
But, it should still pose some risk for isolated to widely scattered
damaging winds in the short term. The convectively augmented MCV
attendant to the ongoing MCS will also move east-northeastward
across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South/central Gulf Coast states
through the day. Gradual destabilization of a rather moist low-level
airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s) should
occur, even with widespread cloudiness hampering daytime heating to
some extent. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow associated
with the MCV and broad upper troughing over the eastern CONUS should
support sufficient deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization.
Multiple clusters and perhaps marginal supercells capable of
producing mainly scattered damaging winds should develop along/south
of a front this afternoon, and spread eastward across much of the
Southeast through at least the early evening. A tornado or two may
also occur in close proximity to the MCV track, but low-level flow
is forecast to be fairly veered and modest.

...Mid-Atlantic...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the OH
Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Recent visible satellite imagery shows
fairly expansive cloud cover over much of the northern Mid-Atlantic,
with clearer skies farther south into southern VA and vicinity. 12Z
observed soundings across this region show poor lapse rates aloft,
which should hamper any more than weak instability developing this
afternoon, even with filtered daytime heating. Still, strengthening
mid-level westerly winds and large-scale ascent preceding the
shortwave trough will likely encourage scattered to numerous
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon across the higher terrain of
the central Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. These multicell
clusters should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds as
they spread east-northeastward towards the Atlantic Coast through
the afternoon and evening. Marginal hail may occur with the
strongest cores. A couple of tornadoes appear possible along/near a
sharpening warm front in the MD/PA/NJ/DE vicinity, where low-level
shear may become locally enhanced.

...Northern/Central High Plains...
Within a generally zonal mid-level pattern, isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains in a modest
low-level upslope flow regime. Moderate instability will be aided by
the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, and 40-50 kt of
deep-layer shear will easily support supercells with an attendant
threat for large to very large hail. These supercells may be fairly
widely spaced, but will likely track south-southeastward through at
least the early evening before weakening. A couple of tornadoes may
occur with these supercells, particularly across parts of the NE
Panhandle into northeast CO, where the best combination of low-level
moisture, effective SRH, and favorable convective mode should
overlap for a few hours. Latest short-term guidance continues to
show low potential for upscale growth/MCS development tonight, but
trends will be monitored.

..Gleason/Bunting.. 06/22/2026


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SPC Jun 22, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...AND ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, mainly this afternoon and evening.
Widely scattered severe storms are expected across the northern and
central High Plains, with more isolated severe weather possible from
the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Mid Atlantic into the Mid-South...
A midlevel shortwave trough, including the remnant of a prominent
MCV, is forecast to move from parts of the Upper OH Valley toward
the Northeast and Mid Atlantic later today. While most guidance
suggests some dampening of this shortwave trough with time, some
flow enhancement will persist within the 850-500 mb layer in the
wake of this shortwave across parts of the Mid Atlantic and
central/southern Appalachians. Scattered storm development is
expected by early/mid afternoon within a moist and moderately
unstable environment. Initial development is expected to evolve into
forward propagating storm clusters with a threat of damaging winds
through the afternoon into the early evening. As convection
intercepts a northward-moving warm front across the Mid Atlantic,
locally backed flow may support development of at least transient
supercells, with some tornado potential.

Farther southwest, an MCV is expected to emerge from a morning MCS
over the southern Plains and move eastward toward the Mid-South
region through the afternoon. As this MCV moves through a very
warm/moist and moderately buoyant environment, storm development is
expected both along the MCV track, and also in the wake of the MCV
along a trailing cold front. Damaging winds will be possible with
the strongest cells/clusters. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the
strength of low-level shear/SRH enhancement associated with the MCV,
but some tornado potential could also evolve through the afternoon
into early evening.

...Central/northern High Plains...
Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening
across parts of the central and northern High Plains, within a
relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Steep midlevel
lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential
for supercells with large to very large hail, localized severe
gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Modest upscale growth cannot
be ruled out during the evening, though most guidance does not
depict organized MCS development at this time.

...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex region...
The remnant of a vigorous MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of
the period from north TX into the ArkLaTex region. Some severe
threat could accompany this system at the beginning of the period,
though a general weakening trend is expected through the morning.
Isolated redevelopment will be possible along the remnant outflow
into early evening, with an increase in storm coverage expected late
tonight. Localized wind damage could accompany any of this
redevelopment, though generally modest deep-layer shear will tend to
limit a more organized severe threat.

..Dean/Squitieri.. 06/22/2026


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