SPC Jan 10, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across southeast Texas
into the central Gulf states tonight. A few tornadoes and damaging
wind gusts are possible.

...01z Update...

Notable short-wave trough is beginning to eject northeast across the
central Plains early this evening. Water vapor supports this with
the center of circulation near DDC. 500mb speed max affiliated with
this feature will strengthen and translate across north TX-southern
MO-central IN by the end of the period. This evolution will result
in negligible height changes along/near the Gulf coast overnight.

As this feature advances east, LLJ is expected to increase across LA
later this evening, strengthening into northern AL by 10/12z.
Low-level warm advection has proven instrumental in convective
development much of the day with scattered thunderstorms persisting
across the lower MS Valley. However, some increase in convection
appears to be occurring across east TX as the southern influence of
the ejecting short wave glances this region. Earlier thoughts
regarding severe potential remain. 00z sounding from LCH exhibits
strong shear and ample buoyancy for supercells. Latest thinking is
scattered-numerous showers/thunderstorms will persist along a
corridor from northern LA into central MS with the potential for
some uptick in intensity overnight as the LLJ strengthens.

..Darrow.. 01/10/2026


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SPC Jan 9, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across southeast Texas
into the central Gulf states. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts,
and large hail are possible through tonight.

...Southern LA northeastward into MS/AL this afternoon...
A southerly fetch of fully modified Gulf air (surface dewpoints near
70 deg F) within a weak but persistent warm-air advection regime
over the central Gulf Coast will probably yield a continuation of
isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Some
breaks in the stratus will promote additional heating of the moist
and weakly unstable airmass. Some weakening of low-level shear has
been observed this morning via the Jackson, MS and Hammond, LA
WSR-88D VADs, and this trend may continue through the mid afternoon
before strengthening later today and into tonight. In the meantime,
an isolated threat for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado
may continue with a stronger storm or two.

...TX/LA/MS/AL this afternoon into the overnight...
Visible-satellite imagery this morning shows an extensive
multi-layer shield of clouds across south-central TX northeastward
into western LA. Ahead of a larger mid-level trough moving east
across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains, a couple of
minor disturbances embedded within strong southwesterly flow are
forecast to move northeastward from TX into the lower MS Valley. In
the low levels, a quasi-stationary front will serve as the northwest
delimiter of the moist/unstable sector before gradually moving
southward across east TX into the Ark-La-Miss later tonight. The
air mass southeast of the front will destabilize this afternoon,
leading to eventual scattered thunderstorms with MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg. This initial activity later this afternoon over TX into LA
will gradually shift eastward into LA/MS this evening and MS/AL
during the overnight. Ample deep-layer shear will pose a risk a few
strong/severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. Towards
the late afternoon over east TX and western LA and especially
through the evening from southwest LA into central MS, 700-mb flow
(per EC model guidance) is forecast to intensify. This
strengthening of the low to mid-level flow and enlarging of the
hodographs will probably coincide with the primary period of concern
for severe storms. A few supercells capable of a tornado risk will
be the main hazard. However, a threat for scattered damaging gusts
accompanying other organized storm structures and possibly a hail
threat will also continue into the overnight.

..Smith/Halbert.. 01/09/2026


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SPC Jan 9, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0601 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Texas into the
central Gulf states.

...MS/AL This morning...
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across
parts of MS. This activity is in a moist surface air mass with
dewpoints in the mid 60s, and MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. VAD
profiles suggest sufficient low-level shear for some concern for a
tornado or two this morning as activity tracks northeastward into
western AL. However, model forecast soundings suggest a warm layer
in the 600-700mb layer that is likely limiting updraft strength and
the overall severe risk.

...TX/LA This Afternoon...
Strong, broad southwesterly flow aloft will be present across much
of the southeastern United States today, with several small
perturbations embedded within the flow. A quasi-stationary front is
currently positioned from south TX into southern AR. The air mass
southeast of the front will destabilize this afternoon, leading to
scattered thunderstorm development. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and
sufficient deep-layer shear will pose a risk a few strong/severe
storms capable of damaging winds and hail.

...LA/MS This Afternoon/Evening...
By late afternoon, ample daytime heating/destabilization will lead
to scattered thunderstorms over LA, spreading northeastward into MS.
Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but slowly strengthening
low-level winds and shear will pose a risk of a few severe storms
capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

...Southern MS/AL Overnight...
The consensus of CAM solutions suggest that storms will become
focused along a surface baroclinic zone late tonight from southeast
MS into southern AL. During this period, most models suggest
significant strengthening of the southerly low-level jet, with
forecast hodographs becoming increasingly favorable for supercells
and a few tornadoes - despite marginal thermodynamic support.

..Hart/Kerr.. 01/09/2026


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SPC Jan 9, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated risk for damaging gusts and possibly a tornado will
continue tonight from the Ozark Plateau eastward into the low/mid
Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys.

...01z Update...

Midlevel jet is forecast to strengthen in excess of 100kt as it
translates across central IL late this evening. As this speed max
shifts into lower MI the associated short-wave trough will advance
into the upper Great Lakes region by 09/12z. Latest satellite
imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is shifting
east of the MS River and this appears to be aiding a narrow band of
weak convection immediately downstream from southeast MO to
northeast IL. This activity has struggled to deepen/organize, though
some increase appears plausible given the approaching trough. Strong
height falls favor some upscale growth, but 00z sounding from ILX
exhibited only modest lapse rates with meager MUCAPE. Despite the
weak thermodynamic profiles, wind fields are very strong and favor
organized rotating updrafts. Will continue MRGL risk for the
aforementioned corridor as large-scale support is very favorable.

Late tonight, scattered convection is expected to increase across
the lower MS Valley. With large-scale forcing remaining well north
of this region, the prospect for organized severe will be somewhat
negated. Even so, some risk for strong gusts and perhaps a tornado
will be noted with the most robust storms.

..Darrow.. 01/09/2026


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