SPC Jan 28, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast for today.

...Synopsis...
A relatively stable pattern will exist across the CONUS today, with
high pressure affecting most areas. A deep upper low will remain
over Ontario, with broad cyclonic flow aloft encompassing most of
eastern Canada and the USA. With high pressure over land, offshore
flow will keep appreciable low-level moisture well offshore from
Cuba toward the Turks and Caicos.

Precipitation will be possible in association with a shortwave
trough moving across the Great Basin during the day and across the
central and northern Rockies. However, little to no instability is
forecast, and as such thunderstorms appear unlikely.

..Jewell.. 01/28/2026


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SPC Jan 28, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur through tonight across parts of
northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe
thunderstorms are not forecast.

...Discussion...
An upper trough will quickly move across northern CA and parts of
the Pacific Northwest through tonight, with a weakening trend.
Despite this, increasing lift, cooling aloft and a midlevel moist
plume may support weak SBCAPE near the coast and elevated
instability inland. The weak instability and minimal wind speeds
below 700 mb should preclude any severe risk.

Elsewhere, cool and stable conditions will prevail with an expansive
upper trough east of the Rockies and high pressure.

..Jewell.. 01/28/2026


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SPC Jan 27, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across
parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe
thunderstorms are not forecast.

...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the outlook.

..Dean.. 01/27/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS
and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm
potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level
shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific
today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this
evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500
mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated
lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that
is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR
mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall
weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast.


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SPC Jan 27, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across
parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe
thunderstorms are not forecast.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS
and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm
potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level
shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific
today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this
evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500
mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated
lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that
is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR
mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall
weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 01/27/2026


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