SPC Oct 25, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW MEXICO
INTO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and
tonight from New Mexico into Far West Texas and the western Texas
Panhandle. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts as well as a
tornado or two are possible in these areas.

...20z Update...
Latest surface observations and objective analysis indicate that
warming surface temperatures (mid-70s F) amid low-60s F dewpoints
are supporting greater buoyancy across portions of southeastern New
Mexico/West Texas. This relatively greater buoyancy (compared to
areas farther north and west) may support a locally greater severe
risk across these regions this afternoon/evening given the
overlapping presence of effective shear of 30-40+ kts. No changes
were made to the existing outlook with this update as overall
expectations for the severe risk remain generally unchanged. See the
discussion below and MCD #2409 for additional short-term details.

..Chalmers.. 10/25/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026/

...NM into Far West TX...
Recent satellite imagery shows the persistent western CONUS upper
cyclone has trended towards a more open wave structure. Mesoanalysis
places two closed mid-level circulations/cold cores within this
troughing, one over northeast UT and the other over central AZ.
Expectation is for this system to further its evolution into an open
wave as it ejects northeastward across the Four Corners and into the
central Rockies. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will persist
throughout the eastern/southeastern periphery of this wave over NM
today.

Showers and thunderstorms currently ongoing within the warm conveyor
downstream of the cyclone across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle are
forecast to shift northeastward throughout the day. This activity is
expected to remain displaced east of the better low-level moisture
and associated buoyancy. Modest airmass destabilization is
anticipated farther west across northern/central NM where the
mid-level cold pocket interacts with the western edge of residual
low-level moisture. Hail appears likely within any of the deeper and
more persistent updrafts. However, given the limited buoyancy, this
hail is expected to remain largely sub severe with only isolated
instances of hail greater than 1" in diameter.

More destabilization is anticipated farther south (i.e. from
south-central/southeast NM into far west TX). Here, upper 50s
dewpoints will support afternoon MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg amid about
30 kt of effective vertical shear. Filtered heating will support
steeper low-level lapse rates as well. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible, with large hail and strong gusts as the
primary threat. Afternoon/evening thunderstorms are also possible
along a weak baroclinic zone from east-central NM into the
northwestern TX Panhandle. Buoyancy will be less here than areas
farther south, but the frontal influence coupled with slightly
stronger vertical shear could result in a supercell or two. Primary
hazard with this activity appears to be hail, but a brief tornado is
also possible.

Lastly, additional thunderstorms will remain possible throughout the
evening and overnight across far west TX (and potentially adjacent
parts of southeast NM) as low-level southeasterly flow strengthens
tonight. Moderate buoyancy and shear will persist, suggesting hail
is possible with the strongest storms.


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SPC Oct 25, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW MEXICO
INTO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and
tonight from New Mexico into Far West Texas and the western Texas
Panhandle. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts as well as a
tornado or two are possible in these areas.

...NM into Far West TX...
Recent satellite imagery shows the persistent western CONUS upper
cyclone has trended towards a more open wave structure. Mesoanalysis
places two closed mid-level circulations/cold cores within this
troughing, one over northeast UT and the other over central AZ.
Expectation is for this system to further its evolution into an open
wave as it ejects northeastward across the Four Corners and into the
central Rockies. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will persist
throughout the eastern/southeastern periphery of this wave over NM
today.

Showers and thunderstorms currently ongoing within the warm conveyor
downstream of the cyclone across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle are
forecast to shift northeastward throughout the day. This activity is
expected to remain displaced east of the better low-level moisture
and associated buoyancy. Modest airmass destabilization is
anticipated farther west across northern/central NM where the
mid-level cold pocket interacts with the western edge of residual
low-level moisture. Hail appears likely within any of the deeper and
more persistent updrafts. However, given the limited buoyancy, this
hail is expected to remain largely sub severe with only isolated
instances of hail greater than 1" in diameter.

More destabilization is anticipated farther south (i.e. from
south-central/southeast NM into far west TX). Here, upper 50s
dewpoints will support afternoon MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg amid about
30 kt of effective vertical shear. Filtered heating will support
steeper low-level lapse rates as well. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible, with large hail and strong gusts as the
primary threat. Afternoon/evening thunderstorms are also possible
along a weak baroclinic zone from east-central NM into the
northwestern TX Panhandle. Buoyancy will be less here than areas
farther south, but the frontal influence coupled with slightly
stronger vertical shear could result in a supercell or two. Primary
hazard with this activity appears to be hail, but a brief tornado is
also possible.

Lastly, additional thunderstorms will remain possible throughout the
evening and overnight across far west TX (and potentially adjacent
parts of southeast NM) as low-level southeasterly flow strengthens
tonight. Moderate buoyancy and shear will persist, suggesting hail
is possible with the strongest storms.

..Mosier/Halbert.. 10/25/2026


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SPC Oct 25, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail, and a tornado or two will be possible this
afternoon/evening across central/eastern New Mexico and Far West
Texas. An isolated damaging wind gust will also be possible across
Far West Texas.

... Southern and Eastern New Mexico into Far West Texas ...

A midlevel shortwave trough is expected to eject northeastward
across the Four Corners region ahead of stronger height falls
approaching the Pacific Northwest. Although this trough should
gradually weaken, associated large-scale ascent will overspread the
northwestern periphery of a persistent low- to midlevel moist plume
extending across New Mexico. A slow-moving, northeast to
southwest-oriented baroclinic zone will provide a focus for
convective development, with differential heating and
terrain-induced vertical circulations likely contributing to
thunderstorm initiation during the afternoon.

The thermodynamic environment across the region will be somewhat
complex. Steeper midlevel lapse rates will generally reside
northwest of the surface warm sector, closer to the ejecting
shortwave trough, while the richer low-level moisture will remain
displaced farther southeast. Additionally, repeated convective
episodes over the preceding several days have acted to temper lapse
rates across portions of the warm sector. This, combined with
potentially extensive cloud cover, should limit the magnitude and
spatial extent of destabilization.

That said, surface dewpoints in the middle 50Fs to near 60F should
support pockets of MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg where sufficient
insolation occurs. This degree of buoyancy may prove sufficient for
sustained deep convection. Given forecast wind fields across the
region indicative of deep-layer shear between 35-40 knots, the
CAPE-shear parameter space will support supercells capable of large
hail, generally in the 1-1.5 inch range. Additionally, forecast
hodographs suggest enough low-level curvature to support a tornado
or two with any sustained, discrete supercell.

Despite the seemingly favorable ingredients within the large-scale
environment, the severe weather threat should remain somewhat
conditional. Questions remains surrounding both the degree and
spatial extent of instability, and subsequently the spatial overlap
of favorable thermodynamics and kinematic fields. This uncertainty
limits confidence in a more substantial severe threat. That said, a
more focused corridor or two of higher severe potential could become
apparent later today as mesoscale details and convective evolution
become better resolved.

... Oregon Coast ...

Isolated thunderstorms may occur near the Oregon coast early on
Sunday as the cold core of an approaching midlevel trough moves into
the area. Shallow convective cells may become sufficiently deep to
produce sporadic lightning.

... Southeast Florida ...

Across southeast Florida, moist northeasterly flow along the western
periphery of a midlevel low over the Bahamas may support occasional
thunderstorms. Weak forecast vertical shear and warm mid-level
temperatures should limit any organized severe potential.

..Marsh/Thornton.. 10/25/2026


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SPC Oct 24, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of New
Mexico and far west Texas today.

...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to the existing severe
probabilities as the forecast remains generally on track. See the
prior discussion below for additional details.

Elsewhere, the General Thunder area was trimmed across portions of
the northern Plains/upper Midwest in the wake of the passage of a
surface cold front and accompanying precipitation.

..Chalmers.. 10/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026/

...NM/Four Corners/Far West TX...
Recent satellite imagery continues to show a cyclone centered over
the Lower CO River Valley with expansive ridging downstream from the
western Gulf through the Upper Great Lakes. A shortwave trough is
currently progressing through the southeastern periphery of the
Lower CO Valley cyclone over northwestern Mexico. General
expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue northeastward
today with some loss of amplitude as it moves within the confluent
flow between the western CONUS upper low and central/eastern CONUS
ridging.

Persistence of mostly southwesterly flow aloft will continue to
promote showers and thunderstorms from the Four Corners vicinity
across NM and into far west TX. The airmass becomes more stable with
northern extent but should remain buoyant enough to support
continued thunderstorms. More widespread cloud cover is anticipated
across northern portions of the region, but filtered daytime heating
may result in greater destabilization and attendant risk of a few
strong/severe storms capable of hail.

Greater buoyancy is expected farther south, where dewpoints will
likely be in the upper 50s to low 60s amid afternoon highs in the
mid/upper 70s. Moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear will
persist across area as well, supporting the potential for
supercells. Additionally, a more southeasterly component to the
low-level flow is possible from south-central/southeast NM into far
west TX, which could support slower storm motions and a relatively
greater potential for hail and tornadoes. Some very large hail
greater than 2" in diameter is also more possible here. This region
should also experience greater large-scale ascent as the shortwave
trough moves through during the late afternoon/early evening. This
greater ascent could result in a more linear mode and the potential
for a few bowing segments. Overall, there appears to be a relatively
greater severe potential from south-central NM into southeast NM and
far west TX compared to areas farther north and west.


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