SPC Jul 7, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of large hail
and severe wind gusts are possible from the northern High Plains
into parts of the Upper Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. Isolated
severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are possible
Tuesday afternoon and evening from the southern Mid-Atlantic into
the Carolinas, the Sabine River Valley, and parts of the Great
Basin.

...Synopsis...

Ahead of a shortwave trough moving from the northern Rockies into
the northern High Plains, the models indicate a lead disturbance
(possible MCV) and associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow
progressing through ND into northern MN on Tuesday. Elsewhere, a
shortwave trough will move through the Northeast, while a mid-level
low lingers over the Mid South/lower MS Valley.

At the surface, the primary feature of interest is a front that is
expected to become quasi-stationary from western SD through central
or southern MN and northern WI by afternoon. A surface low is
projected to develop along the boundary in western SD with a lee
trough trailing south from that feature into the central High
Plains.

...Northern High Plains into the Upper Midwest...

Clusters of elevated thunderstorms tied to the lead disturbance may
be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday across portions of eastern MT and western
ND, to the north of the surface front. Modest instability and some
vertical-shear enhancement may support an isolated large hail threat
through the morning, mainly in southern ND.

In the wake of the early-day storms, low-level, upslope flow will
strengthen across the northern High Plains in response to the
approach of a shortwave trough from the west. The associated
increase in low-level moisture will coincide with a plume of steep
mid-level lapse rates to yield MLCAPE up to 1000-2000 J/kg from
central MT into western SD with upwards of 2000-3500 J/kg farther
east along the front in SD and MN.

Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to
late afternoon within the upslope regime from central into eastern
MT and along the front across SD and perhaps MN. Sufficiently strong
vertical shear is forecast from MT east along the front in SD to
support supercell storm modes with an associated risk for large hail
and damaging winds. The 00Z CAMs indicate the initial discrete
storms merging into clusters or one or more MCSs Tuesday evening
into night along a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. Severe
wind gusts will become the predominant hazard with that mode
transition.

Additional storms are possible near and west of the lee trough in
southeast WY, northeast CO, and the NE Panhandle during the
afternoon into evening. The local environment will feature a deep
and well-mixed boundary layer, which will support the potential for
a few severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail.

...Southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas...

A moist and moderately unstable air mass is expected to support
scattered thunderstorm development by early to mid afternoon from
the Blue Ridge Mountains east to the lee trough and Carolina sea
breeze. Vertical shear will remain weak, which will limit the
potential for storm organization. Nonetheless, the presence of steep
low-level lapse rates will enhance downdraft potential, leading to
the risk for sporadic damaging wind occurrences, especially with any
storm clusters.

...East Texas into the Sabine River Valley...

A weak vorticity lobe is forecast to pivot south through the Ozark
Plateau into the ArkLaTex on Tuesday with a preceding zone of
forcing for ascent acting on a very moist and moderately unstable
air mass. A resultant increase in storm coverage is expected through
the afternoon with some CAM signal for a loosely organized cold pool
to evolve, which will support the potential for sporadic damaging
wind gusts.

...Great Basin...

The 00Z models suggest that a weak mid-level disturbance will move
through northeast NV and northern UT Tuesday afternoon into the
evening, enhancing lift and vertical shear to some extent. Isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of
that feature by mid to late afternoon atop a deep and well-mixed
boundary layer, which will be supportive of locally severe wind
gusts.

..Mead/Moore.. 07/07/2026


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SPC Jul 7, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND A
SMALL PART OF LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
severe wind gusts remain possible across the eastern Dakotas and
western Minnesota this evening into tonight. Isolated damaging wind
gusts will also be possible over parts of the northern Rockies into
northern High Plains, Louisiana, and the southern Mid-Atlantic.

...Upper Mississippi Valley...

Recent trends in radar data indicate the coalescing of individual
thunderstorms into a broader-scale cluster east of Fargo. The
impingement of the cold front on that convection should foster
further morphology into more of a line configuration with bowing
characteristics late this evening into tonight, which is supported
by latest convection-allowing model guidance. The 00Z ABR sounding
sampled steep lapse rates, which were largely contributing to MLCAPE
of around 3000 J/kg in the absence of a more moist boundary layer.
The steep lapse rates and resultant top-heavy CAPE profile in
conjunction with the drier low-level environment are expected to
enhance cold pool development with damaging winds becoming the
predominant severe weather hazard. Localized gusts as high as 70-75
mph are possible as the convective system advances into central MN.

Additional more isolated storm development is possible along the
western flank of the MCS in eastern SD, where more sporadic large
hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.

...Louisiana...

Radar data indicate a cold pool attendant to a bowing storm complex
now becoming displaced downstream from the parent updrafts, which
should lead to the continued weakening of the MCS. Farther south, a
brief uptick in thunderstorm development and associated damaging
wind threat is possible over the next hour or so near and west of
Alexandria where two outflow boundaries are expected to collide.

...Northern Rockies into Central High Plains...

Evening water vapor imagery shows a short-wave trough moving through
ID into western MT with an attending belt of stronger mid-level flow
overspreading southern MT and northwest WY, per latest objective
analysis. The glancing influence of that feature, coupled with
orographic ascent, may still yield a few storm clusters late this
evening into tonight in south-central and southeast MT and northeast
WY, where isolated severe gusts will be possible.

..Mead.. 07/07/2026


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SPC Jul 6, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE ARKLATEX REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
severe wind gusts appear possible across the eastern Dakotas and
western Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered
damaging wind gusts will also be possible with the strongest storms
in the southern Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and ArkLaTex regions.

...MN/ND...
Morning water vapory imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough
over southern Manitoba, with its associated surface cold front
sagging southward across ND. This front will serve as the focus for
scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon from northern MN
into eastern ND. Strong heating ahead of the front and dewpoints
near 70F will yield MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg. Forecast soundings show
relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer
shear for supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts.
These storms may persist through the evening, spreading southward
into central MN and eastern SD.

...Mid Atlantic/Carolinas...
Another day of scattered afternoon thunderstorms will affect much of
the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas region today. Vertical shear and
steering flow is rather weak, suggesting storms will be poorly
organized. However, strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates,
combined with substantial CAPE in forecast soundings, suggest that
the strongest cells will pose the risk of damaging wind gusts over a
relatively broad area again today.

...AR/LA/OK/TX...
Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will lead to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms again today over much of AR, southeast OK,
northeast TX, and northern LA. This is near a mid-level trough
where lapse rates and mid-level temperatures are more favorable for
robust up/downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. Have opted for
a small SLGT risk for parts of this area where convective coverage
appears highest.

...Northern UT into WY...
Scattered high-based fast-moving thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon over northern UT, moving northeastward into western and
northern WY. The strongest of these cells will pose a risk of
damaging wind gusts.

..Hart/Weinman.. 07/06/2026


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SPC Jul 6, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL AS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large
hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across the eastern
Dakotas and western Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Isolated
to scattered damaging wind gusts will also be possible with the
strongest storms in the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.

...Upper Mississippi Valley into north-central Nebraska...
Early-morning surface analysis reveals a low over far southwest
Manitoba, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low
into southeast MT and then westward across south-central MT. This
surface low and associated cold front precede a well-defined
shortwave trough currently moving through southern Saskatchewan.
This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward today, with the
attendant surface low and cold front progressing eastward as well. A
warm and moist airmass will precede this cold front, with afternoon
highs ranging from the upper 80s/low 90s across eastern SD/northwest
MN into the upper 90s/low 100s from central SD into central NE.
Boundary-layer mixing will be offset by modest low-level moisture
advection, likely keeping dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s over
much of the region. These warm and moist conditions will help
destabilize the airmass, despite relatively warm mid-level
temperatures at the base of a northeastward-advecting EML. Over 2000
J/kg of MLCAPE will likely be in place by the mid afternoon, with a
pocket of 3000 J/kg possible across southeast SD by the late
afternoon.

Thunderstorm development is anticipated first across western ND and
northwest MN as the cold front interacts with this buoyant airmass,
with ascent along the front augmented by modest lift along the
southern periphery of the shortwave trough. Enhanced mid-level flow
will exist within the base of this shortwave as well, with the
resulting combination of buoyancy and shear supportive of supercells
early in the convective cycle, with large hail as the primary
hazard. Some instances of hail in excess of two inches are possible.
A somewhat quick transition to a more linear mode appears likely
given the frontal forcing, close storm proximity, and likelihood of
strong cold pools. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard once this
upscale growth occurs.

Lower storm coverage is anticipated with southward extent from
central SD into northern NE. Here, weaker shear is expected to limit
the potential for organized storm modes, though isolated occurrences
of hail and severe wind gusts appear possible with the strongest
storms.

...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas...
A hot and very moist boundary layer is forecast in the vicinity of
a lee trough this afternoon, with MLCAPE generally from 1500-2500
J/kg. Forcing for ascent will be weak, with convergence along the
lee trough as the primary impetus for convective initiation.
Vertical shear will be weak, but scattered coverage and an
outflow-dominant storm mode will support the potential for upscale
growth into loosely organized clusters. Relatively high storm bases
and steep low-level lapse rates will enhance downdraft potential
with a risk for damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms.
Highest coverage is expected from central VA into far north-central
NC.

...Northern Great Basin into southern Montana and northern
Wyoming...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving into
southwestern ID. This shortwave is forecast to continue
northeastward across ID and western MT, moving within the
northwestern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Four
Corners. Mid-level moisture and ascent associated with this
shortwave will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms across
the region during the afternoon and evening. Moderate mid-level flow
(i.e. 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb) will accompany this wave as well,
resulting in sufficient deep-layer shear to support at least
episodic supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds
and isolated hail.

...Lower MS Valley...
A notable vorticity maximum is currently moving southward from
southwest MO into northwest AR, with slow southward/southeastward
progression of this vorticity maximum expected throughout the day.
Ample low-level moisture exists over the region, supporting diurnal
airmass destabilization and the development of strong buoyancy (i.e.
MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg) by the afternoon. Scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are anticipated as the vorticity max moves
through this environment. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting
storm organization, but a few strong downdrafts are still possible.
Isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail are possible as well.

..Mosier/Dean.. 07/06/2026


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