SPC Nov 26, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA...AND OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms remain possible from southern Alabama into
western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle through late evening, and
over Deep South Texas.

...AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle...
A marginally unstable air mass remains ahead of a cold front this
evening, extending from northwest GA across central AL. Scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing near/ahead of the front, with minimal
indications of severe potential currently. However, PWAT values up
to 1.50" persist, with minimal convective inhibition especially over
southern areas. Southwest 850 mb winds near 30 kt is also supporting
areas of 100-150 m2/s2 effective SRH, which could aid rotation in
the stronger storms. As such, will maintain the Marginal Risk, with
a low-end risk of a brief tornado or locally damaging gusts over the
next several hours.

...Deep South TX...
Weak easterly low-level flow persists this evening south of a
developing cold front, with 70s F dewpoints onshore. The 00Z CRP
sounding show minimal capping, though winds are weak below 700 mb.
Farther south, the 00Z BRO soundings still indicates substantial
capping. Latest radar already indicates convective showers may be
developing inland.

Conditionally, the environment supports hail over 1.00" diameter,
with MLCAPE over 1500 J/kg and deep-layer effective shear around 50
kt. The primary uncertainty is due to weak lift. However, the cold
front will eventually push south into the moist and unstable air
mass later tonight, and this may result in sufficient lift for a few
strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms with localized hail threat.
As such, 5% hail probabilities have been added.

..Jewell.. 11/26/2025


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SPC Nov 25, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
EVENING FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible from east central/southeast
Mississippi across central Alabama into northwest Georgia through
late evening. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage and
isolated large hail will all be possible.

...20z Update..
Only minor adjustments were made to extend the Slight Risk further
southeast across southern Alabama with this update in alignment with
recent trends. Occasional rotating cells are noted on radar across
central/southern Alabama over the last couple of hours. Daytime
heating will continue across this region with occasional stronger
cell development expected through the afternoon. VAD profiles from
BMX, MXX continue to show favorable low-level curvature of
hodographs, indicative of SRH rich environments supporting rotating
cells. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage, and isolated
large hail remain possible. See previous discussion below for more
information.

..Thornton.. 11/25/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025/

...MS/AL/GA through late evening...
A weakening midlevel trough will continue to eject
east-northeastward from the TN Valley to the Appalachians, in
advance of an amplifying trough from the northern Plains to the
upper MS Valley. An associated/weak surface cold front will move
southeastward across LA/MS/AL, though the majority of the convective
threat today will be focused along a residual outflow boundary from
east central MS into central AL. Low-level recovery into northeast
AL/northwest GA will depend on some clearing of clouds/rain, which
is uncertain. Along and south of this boundary, that is being
loosely reinforced by ongoing convection, warming surface
temperatures into the 70s with mid-upper 60s dewpoints will
contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent will
linger into the afternoon and support additional thunderstorm
development, and there will be sufficient deep-layer vertical shear
for a couple of supercells. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature
will be greatest along the residual outflow (per the BMX VWP)
through the afternoon, and then low-level flow will weaken by this
evening. A couple of tornadoes and isolated wind damage/large hail
will be possible this afternoon into this evening.


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SPC Nov 25, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0621 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the
Southeast/Deep South this morning into the early evening hours. A
couple tornadoes are possible in parts of eastern Mississippi and
central Alabama.

...MS/AL/GA...
A progressive mid-level shortwave trough is moving across west
TN/northern MS. Strong forcing for ascent ahead of this trough has
resulted in a fast-moving line of showers and isolated thunderstorms
across northern AL this morning - now moving into northwest GA.
These storms are tracking into a progressively less unstable air
mass, with surface dewpoints only in the mid 50s. This should limit
downdraft penetration to the surface and diminish the risk of
gusty/damaging winds in the next couple of hours.

In the wake of this activity, southerly low-level winds will allow
gradual return of the moist and moderately unstable air mass into
east-central MS and central/northern AL. Large-scale forcing will
be weak the rest of the day, but pockets of daytime heating may be
sufficient for the re-development of scattered thunderstorms by
early afternoon. Those storms that form will be in an environment
of 20-30 knots of southerly low-level winds and sufficient
deep-layer shear to promote transient supercell structures.
Therefore have maintained the ongoing SLGT risk, despite weak
forcing mechanisms. Gusty winds and a risk of a few tornadoes are
the main concern.

..Hart/Dean.. 11/25/2025


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SPC Nov 25, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe storms are likely across parts of the
Southeast/Deep South this morning into the early evening hours. A
couple tornadoes are possible in parts of eastern Mississippi and
Alabama.

...Synopsis...
Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weakening upper wave over
east TX/LA translating to the east/northeast with a more compact,
amplifying upper disturbance moving into the northern High Plains.
Further de-amplification of the southern wave is anticipated over
the next 24 hours as it lifts into the Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. As
this occurs, a weak surface low (analyzed over the mid-MS Valley as
of 05 UTC) will gradually lift to the northeast with a trailing cold
front extending from the TN Valley to the Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm
development is anticipated by mid-afternoon along this boundary
across portions of eastern MS, AL, and into the southern
Appalachians. While buoyancy will remain somewhat modest, strong
wind shear over the region will support the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms.

...Southeast...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing by 12 UTC across portions of
central MS and northwest AL as remnants from overnight convection
begin to weaken in tandem with the early-morning maximum in
inhibition. Some re-intensification of this activity is possible by
late morning across northeast MS/northern AL as diurnal heating
increases, but confidence in the coverage/intensity is uncertain.

30-40 knot south/southwesterly flow in the 1-2 km layer will
continue to advect seasonally warm/moist air northward into central
and northeast AL by mid-afternoon. This will allow for adequate
destabilization within the warm sector for thunderstorm development
as a weak cold front begins to advance from the west. The
combination of strong, along-boundary deep-layer wind shear and weak
forcing for ascent will favor a broken line of cells/clusters by
mid-afternoon. The strong low-level winds will support a damaging
wind threat with any strong thunderstorm, and favorable low-level
helicity (especially late morning through early afternoon) will
support a tornado threat with the more intense/isolated supercells.
Through late afternoon, low-level winds veering to the southwest may
modulate the tornado threat to some degree, but damaging winds and
isolated large hail will remain possible. In general, the overall
ensemble signal for intense convection is comparatively weaker
compared to previous days, suggesting that the severe threat may be
somewhat more limited. Nonetheless, Slight-risk probabilities were
maintained for portions of southeast MS through east-central AL
where strong/severe storms appear most likely.

..Moore/Jewell.. 11/25/2025


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