SPC Jan 27, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across
parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe
thunderstorms are not forecast.

...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the outlook.

..Dean.. 01/27/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS
and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm
potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level
shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific
today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this
evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500
mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated
lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that
is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR
mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall
weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast.


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SPC Jan 27, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across
parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe
thunderstorms are not forecast.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS
and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm
potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level
shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific
today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this
evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500
mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated
lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that
is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR
mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall
weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 01/27/2026


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SPC Jan 27, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely today.

...Synopsis...
Several shortwave troughs are forecast to progress eastward today
within the cyclonic flow aloft covering much of the central and
eastern CONUS. At the same time, upper ridging will move eastward
across the western CONUS to the Intermountain West and a strong
shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. This
evolution will lead to a modestly amplified trough/ridge/trough
pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow.

Even with this relatively progressive pattern, the extensive and
cold airmass in place over much of the CONUS will promote offshore
trajectories and cold/stable sensible weather. Strongest convection
today is anticipated with a frontal band attendant to the Pacific
Northwest shortwave trough. However, this convection will still be
too shallow to produce lightning.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/27/2026


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SPC Jan 27, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential is negligible tonight.

...01z Update...

Surface front has surged off the southern FL Peninsula and stable
conditions are noted across the CONUS.

..Darrow.. 01/27/2026


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