SPC Jun 19, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated brief tornadoes and damaging gusts remain possible from far
southern Alabama into the parts of the Florida Panhandle and across
much of Georgia. Scattered damaging winds are likely this evening
into tonight over much of north-central Texas.

...From far southern AL across GA and into SC...
A line of thunderstorms currently extends north-south across central
GA ahead of the midlevel wave. The environment is very moist and 0-1
SRH is over 250 m2/s2 at the JGX radar. Minimal CIN due to the high
PWAT air mass should thus continue to support QLCS tornado potential
as the line of storms moves across GA, and possibly into SC later
tonight.

Farther southwest, robust thunderstorms have developed near Mobile
and will move eastward across far southern AL and the northern and
western FL Panhandle. A very moist and unstable air mass resides
here as well, and stronger westerly flow and shear around the
southern periphery of the upper system will continue to support a
narrow corridor of brief tornado or damaging wind potential.

For more information see mesoscale discussion 1191.

...Much of north-central Texas...
Hot conditions exist across the Abilene to San Angelo area this
evening, with little CIN. The 00Z MAF sounding shows a deep mixed
layer and over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE with a near 60 F dewpoint. Just east
of the low-level lapse rate plume, dewpoints are well into the 70s
F, with 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE into central TX.

Storms are already beginning to form over west-central TX as a cold
front pushes south into the storm-ready air mass. Winds around 850
mb will also increase out of the southeast tonight, aiding unstable
inflow into a developing cluster of storms. Shear and steering
currents aloft are weak, but severe outflow is expected to affect
much of northwest into north-central TX later this evening into
tonight. A general southeastward propagation is most likely, into
the moist plume. Conditions appear favorable for damaging winds, and
localized significant wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Given such
high instability, some of the stronger storms may briefly produce
hail.

..Jewell.. 06/19/2026


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SPC Jun 18, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS...INTO NEW
ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms remain likely from
Kentucky and the central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic, with
primarily damaging wind gusts or marginal hail. Scattered severe
storms are possible from upstate New York into New England, with
damaging wind gusts and tornado potential. A few tornadoes may also
occur over parts of the middle Gulf Coast and southeast states, and
scattered storms may produce damaging winds or marginal hail from
Oklahoma into western North Texas.

...20z Update TX/OK...
Forecast confidence has increased late this afternoon into tonight
that one or more semi-organized clusters of thunderstorms will
develop and spread southeastward across parts of western North TX
with a risk for damaging gusts. Strong convergence near an
anomalously deep surface low and sagging cold front will support
numerous thunderstorms tonight. Despite marginal deep-layer shear
for organization, a hot and very unstable air
mass in vicinity of the surface low will allow for strong cold pool
development, potentially supporting severe outflow gusts. More
isolated damaging gusts and/or marginally severe hail remain
possible farther north into OK. Have upgraded wind probabilities to
15% and a categorical Level 2 Slight Risk for portions of western
North TX.

...Southeast...
Convection associated with the remnants of Arthur will persist
through tonight along a stalled frontal zone in the Southeast. While
clustering has resulted in more linear structures, enhanced flow
aloft and pockets of stronger low-level shear near the front may
still support occasional rotating updrafts, with the risk for a
couple of tornadoes or damaging gusts from eastern AL, into GA and
the western Carolinas through tonight. Have reduced maximum tornado
probabilities, but will maintain a broad 5% for occasional supercell
structures along/near the front.

...New England...
The broken band of storms ahead of the cold front should continue
eastward and gradually weaken into this evening. Southern portions
of the line over MA, CT and RI may remain stronger given better
buoyancy, but storm coverage here should become more isolated with
time. Damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two remain possible.
Have trimmed probabilities behind the cold front where the risk has
decreased. No other changes were made, see the previous discussion
for more information.

..Lyons.. 06/18/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026/

...NY/New England...
A fast-moving low-topped squall line is tracking eastward across NY.
Low and mid level wind fields in this region are very strong,
contributing to occasional bowing structures and QLCS mesocyclones.
This activity will spread into VT/NH through the afternoon with a
continued risk of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Confidence
in severe storms farther south into southern New England is lower,
but at least isolated strong/damaging wind gusts are possible.

...KY into Mid Atlantic...
A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends across KY
into southern VA. Strong heating along and south of the boundary
will likely result in renewed convection this afternoon, in a zone
of moderate westerly flow aloft and CAPE values around 2000 J/kg. A
few severe storms are expected in this corridor, with activity
moving into northern NC later today. Damaging winds are the main
risk.

...Gulf Coast into Carolinas...
The remnant circulation of Arthur is becoming more progressive with
time, and is accelerating eastward. As this occurs, the zone of
relatively strong southerly low-level winds will also shift across
AL into GA and eventually SC/NC tonight. Ample low-level moisture
and high theta-e values will coincide with the region of strong
shear, and CAM solutions suggest clusters of thunderstorms in this
area as well. This suggests at least some risk of damaging wind
gusts and tornadoes through the afternoon and night as the system
moves northeastward.

...TX/OK...
Scattered thunderstorms will occasional hail risk will slowly
diminish across northern OK this afternoon. Later today, new
thunderstorms are expected to develop in a hot and very unstable air
mass in vicinity of the surface low near ABI/SJT. These slow-moving
storms will have some damaging wind and hail risk through the
evening.


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SPC Jun 18, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEW ENGLAND...THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND FROM THE GULF COAST
STATE INTO THE CAROLINAS....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from
Kentucky and the central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic, with
primarily damaging wind gusts or marginal hail. Scattered severe
storms are possible from upstate New York into New England, with
damaging wind gusts and tornado potential. A few tornadoes may also
occur over parts of the middle Gulf Coast states, and scattered
storms may produce gusty winds or marginal hail from Oklahoma into
western North Texas.

...NY/New England...
A fast-moving low-topped squall line is tracking eastward across NY.
Low and mid level wind fields in this region are very strong,
contributing to occasional bowing structures and QLCS mesocyclones.
This activity will spread into VT/NH through the afternoon with a
continued risk of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Confidence
in severe storms farther south into southern New England is lower,
but at least isolated strong/damaging wind gusts are possible.

...KY into Mid Atlantic...
A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends across KY
into southern VA. Strong heating along and south of the boundary
will likely result in renewed convection this afternoon, in a zone
of moderate westerly flow aloft and CAPE values around 2000 J/kg. A
few severe storms are expected in this corridor, with activity
moving into northern NC later today. Damaging winds are the main
risk.

...Gulf Coast into Carolinas...
The remnant circulation of Arthur is becoming more progressive with
time, and is accelerating eastward. As this occurs, the zone of
relatively strong southerly low-level winds will also shift across
AL into GA and eventually SC/NC tonight. Ample low-level moisture
and high theta-e values will coincide with the region of strong
shear, and CAM solutions suggest clusters of thunderstorms in this
area as well. This suggests at least some risk of damaging wind
gusts and tornadoes through the afternoon and night as the system
moves northeastward.

...TX/OK...
Scattered thunderstorms will occasional hail risk will slowly
diminish across northern OK this afternoon. Later today, new
thunderstorms are expected to develop in a hot and very unstable air
mass in vicinity of the surface low near ABI/SJT. These slow-moving
storms will have some damaging wind and hail risk through the
evening.

..Hart/Chalmers.. 06/18/2026


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SPC Jun 18, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from
Kentucky and the central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic, with
primarily damaging wind gusts or marginal hail. Scattered severe
storms are possible from upstate New York into New England, with
damaging wind gusts and tornado potential. A few tornadoes may also
occur over parts of the middle Gulf Coast states, and scattered
storms may produce gusty winds or marginal hail from Oklahoma into
western North Texas.

...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina...
The region will be influenced by lingering long-lived
overnight-upscale-transitioning linear segments that moved across
Kentucky/West Virginia, that will likely continue to pose a severe
risk early today, mainly in the form of damaging winds. This may be
even as updraft/storm intensities somewhat trend downward over the
mountains. Even if weakening occurs early today east of the
Appalachians spine, residual outflow/differential heating and
potential MCV influences should help focus
redevelopment/re-intensification into the Piedmont later today, with
additional development westward toward the Cumberland Plateau along
the residual convective boundary as well as the
east/southeastward-advancing front. Moderate diurnal destabilization
aside, organized severe potential will be aided by seasonally strong
winds through the low/mid-troposphere, even with a tendency for
low-level winds to weaken into this afternoon.

...Northeast States...
Within a broader area of cyclonic flow aloft, a leading shortwave
trough will move from the Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast, with
a 90 kt mid-level speed max and cooling aloft moving across New York
and parts of New England during the day. Low pressure will develop
into southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward into the
region.

Surface heating and gusty south winds will bring 60s F dewpoints
into the area with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE expected. Relatively warm
profiles will develop near 300 mb, somewhat limiting storm depth.
However, ample mid-level cooling will still support sufficient
destabilization and the development of intensifying low-topped
storms into the afternoon. Pronounced deep-layer/low-level shear and
backed surface winds ahead of the cold front will favor low-topped
supercells. Cells should develop/further increase over northern New
York through midday/early afternoon and will move quickly east.
Damaging winds, a couple of tornadoes, and hail will all be
possible, although smaller hail may be more likely given the low EL
heights.

...Gulf Coast including parts of LA/MS/AL/GA/FL...
Already strong mid/low-level winds across southeast Louisiana and
southern Mississippi, associated with the remnants of Arthur, will
further increase and spread east-northeastward across Alabama and
Florida Panhandle toward Georgia, as a weak surface low and
mid-level wave spread northeast regionally. The strong low-level
shear and mid 70s F dewpoints will support organized bands of storms
with embedded stronger/rotating cells capable of a
northeastward-transitioning tornado risk today.

...Oklahoma/southern Kansas to western North Texas...
Isolated mostly elevated severe storms capable of hail will remain
possible early today across southeast Kansas and northern Oklahoma
and possibly southwest Missouri. These storms could linger today and
also pose some damaging wind risk. Additional deep convection may
develop into late afternoon/early evening within a very unstable
environment across western Oklahoma into western North Texas near
the southward-shifting front and surface low/dryline across Texas,
with isolated large hail and damaging winds possible.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 06/18/2026


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