SPC Aug 8, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable primarily of
damaging gusts will be possible today from the Mid-Atlantic states
into southwest New England.

...Northeast States...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough
over OH tracking eastward. A warm/moist air mass is present ahead of
the trough, with pockets of MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg expected later
today. Large scale forcing associated with the trough is rather
weak, and overall coverage of storms may be rather isolated.
However, stronger winds aloft than yesterday suggest a conditional
risk of wind damage with any sustained storm later today. Have
extended the SLGT risk area a little farther north into NY/MA where
morning model guidance suggests higher coverage/confidence in
storms. Have also extended the MRGL farther west into OH beneath
the upper trough where widely scattered storms may also produce
gusty/damaging winds.

...Western NC...
A few afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form off the mountains
of western NC and vicinity, and track slowly southeastward. Strong
daytime heating, humid conditions, and sufficient CAPE may promote a
risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cores.

...North TX...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form along an E-W axis across
north TX this afternoon in a hot/humid air mass. The strongest of
these slow-moving cells may produce damaging winds.

...NE/KS...
A cluster of strong thunderstorms is ongoing over central NE. This
activity may persist into the afternoon, tracking southeastward
toward northeast KS/northwest MO. Given the corridor of high CAPE
in this zone, a few strong/severe storms capable of damaging winds
and hail are possible.

...ND/SD/MN/IA...
A strengthening southerly low-level jet will likely lead to
scattered thunderstorms tonight after midnight over central ND.
These storms are expected to develop southeastward into parts of
SD/MN/IA before 12z. Relatively strong vertical shear will support
supercells capable of hail and damaging winds.

...AZ...
Full sunshine and sufficient CAPE will once again promote
thunderstorm develop off the Mogollon Rim this afternoon and
evening. Forecast soundings show increasing mid-level moisture
through the evening as an upper trough passes to the south, perhaps
aiding convective maintenance westward into the lower elevations.
If so, given the favorable steering flow, strong/severe outflow
winds could spread into the PHX area around 00z. This scenario will
be monitored for a possible upgrade to SLGT in later outlooks.

..Hart/Weinman.. 08/08/2026


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SPC Aug 8, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable primarily of
damaging gusts will be possible today across the Mid-Atlantic states
into southern New England.

...Mid-Atlantic states into southern New England...
Satellite imagery this morning indicates a weak disturbance moving
east across the Lower Great Lakes, with early morning
showers/thunderstorms from WV/PA into western NY likely associated
with this feature. Strong heating from Chesapeake Bay northward
into southern portions of the Northeast will yield around 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE by early afternoon. Of particular note is seemingly adequate
strength of flow between 700-250 mb for organized line segments.
Given the relatively high PW environment (1.75-2.0 inches),
expecting a few clusters to evolve this afternoon with an attendant
risk for strong to locally severe gusts (50-65 mph). Have
expanded/increased severe-wind probabilities into southern New
England and southward into the Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Marginally
severe hail may also occur with the stronger cells before excessive
outflow leads to more linear structures as this activity pushes east
towards the coast by the early evening.

...Northern/Central Plains into MN/IA/MO...
Radar/satellite mosaic shows a cluster of strong to locally severe
thunderstorms over the NE Sandhills this morning. This activity may
continue southeast this morning but weaken as it moves across
central NE. Above average uncertainty/low confidence for this
forecast is due in part to weak to negligible forcing features and
large model spread on potential evolution of isolated to widely
scattered storms later today into tonight. Nonetheless, a strongly
unstable airmass is forecast to develop by early afternoon across
much of the region with 60s to lower 70s boundary layer dewpoints
beneath steep 700-500 mb lapse rates.

Several areas of convection may develop during the late
afternoon/evening near the surface trough, and overnight near the
southward-sagging surface front. Weak convergence along early day
outflow may rejuvenate convection or lead to additional isolated
storms over southern NE into northern KS. This may also coincide
with an increasing low-level jet across the central Plains during
the evening into the overnight, but capping will likely limit storm
coverage except perhaps near a southward-sagging surface front near
the ND/SD border and with warm advection over southern MN into IA.
Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the more intense
thunderstorms.

Additional high-based convection is possible across eastern CO and
western KS/NE. A hot and well mixed boundary layer will probably
support isolated severe gusts.

...AZ...
Easterly midlevel flow will persist on the southern periphery of an
upper high over the Four Corners. Steep midlevel lapse rates and
persistent moisture across the region will foster thunderstorm
development across the higher terrain during the evening. The hot
and well mixed boundary layer will support strong outflow gusts as
convection moves westward off higher terrain toward the lower
deserts.

..Smith/Kerr.. 08/08/2026


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SPC Aug 8, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening
across parts of the central and northern Plains southeastward into
the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Additional strong to severe storms
are possible in the Mid-Atlantic and central/southern Arizona.

...Northern/Central Plains into MN/IA/MO...

A modest but weakening low-level jet across portions of NE/SD may
support ongoing elevated convection this morning, mainly across NE.
This activity will weaken and spread southeast through the morning
hours, but could pose a marginal risk for hail.

The forecast for the afternoon into nighttime hours becomes complex
and uncertain. Broad northwesterly flow aloft will modestly
strengthen by late afternoon/early evening as several shortwave
impulses migrate through the base of an upper low/trough centered
over central Canada. Height falls are expected to be weak, and warm
mid-level temperatures will pose capping issues. Nevertheless,
surface troughing across the northern/central High Plains will
result in south/southeasterly low-level flow, transporting 60s F
dewpoints northward across the central Plains and MO Valley ahead of
a southward sagging surface front oriented across ND and northern MN
late in the period. Increasing boundary layer moisture beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong
destabilization.

Several areas of convection may develop during the late
afternoon/evening near the surface trough, and overnight near the
southward-sagging surface front. Given weak large-scale ascent and
warm midlevels, it remains uncertain where storm development is most
likely and how storm coverage will evolve. With an increasing
low-level jet across the central Plains during the nighttime hours,
some convection could develop atop a capping inversion, or along the
surface front near the ND/SD border. Isolated large hail is possible
with this activity. If surface-based convection can develop within
the strongly unstable airmass, damaging wind gusts also will be
possible.

Additional high-based convection is possible across CO and western
KS/NE. A hot and well mixed boundary layer could support strong
outflow winds with this activity as well.

...Mid-Atlantic...

A modest midlevel shortwave trough will overspread the region
through afternoon/early evening. Strong heating of a seasonally
moist airmass will support moderate instability. Vertical shear is
expected to be sufficient for organized cells and clusters with an
attendant risk for damaging wind gusts. The strongest cells could
also produce small hail.

...AZ...

Easterly midlevel flow will persist on the southern periphery of an
upper high over the Four Corners. Steep midlevel lapse rates and
persistent moisture across the region will foster thunderstorm
development across the higher terrain during the evening. The hot
and well mixed boundary layer will support strong outflow gusts as
convection moves westward off higher terrain toward the lower
deserts.

..Leitman/Marsh.. 08/08/2026


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SPC Aug 8, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN IOWA...AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes this evening, with large hail and severe
winds the main threats. The severe risk should gradually decrease
through 05z (midnight local time).

...Iowa into northern Wisconsin/U.P. of Michigan...

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms continue this evening across
parts of IA and the U.P. of MI ahead of a surface cold front. Some
additional re-development may occur along the front across
central/southern IA over the next few hours, while convection
further north gradually decreases in intensity over the next couple
of hours. Isolated large hail and strong/locally damaging wind gusts
remain possible. Reference MCD 1857 for more information.

Further south, severe probabilities were trimmed across portions of
the MO Valley, where thunderstorm potential appears limited
overnight.

...AZ/NM into the TX Panhandle...

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will persist for a few more
hours across parts of eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and far
west-central OK. Severe wind gusts will be the main hazards with
this activity given the hot, well-mixed boundary layer. Some of the
stronger storms could sporadically produce large hail. Overall
severe risk should gradually wane with loss of daytime heating after
03z.

Further southwest, isolated thunderstorms moving off higher terrain
into portions of southern AZ and southwest NM will pose a risk for
strong wind gusts the next few hours. Storm coverage currently is
fairly sparse, and it is uncertain if sufficient clustering will
occur and spread west/southwest into lower elevations. Given
uncertainty, will maintain the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk.

...Ozark Plateau...

Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue for a few more hours
this evening within the moderately unstable environment. Locally
damaging wind gusts will be possible, but thunderstorm intensity
should gradually wane over the next 1-3 hours. Reference MCD 1858
for more information.

...SD/NE...

A conditional large hail risk remains late tonight/early Saturday
across parts of southern SD into northern NE. Forecast guidance
still suggests isolated elevated thunderstorms will develop within a
corridor of favorable elevated instability and 35+ kt effective
shear magnitudes. If storms develop, large hail will be possible.

...OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...

Locally gusty winds may continue another hour or two with a
thunderstorm cluster of WV and another cluster in CT. Thunderstorm
activity may persist across parts of the Midwest toward the
Mid-Atlantic beyond 02-03z, but overall severe potential is expected
to largely be diminished by then due to loss of daytime and
increasing boundary layer stabilization.

..Leitman.. 08/08/2026


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