SPC Jan 17, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1001 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

...Discussion...
Deep convective potential will remain virtually nil through tonight
as a longwave trough persists east of the Rockies, with an embedded
shortwave trough amplifying over the Lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks
and Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will continue
southeastward and clear much of the coastal Southeast except the
Florida Peninsula by tonight. Near/ahead of the front, even with
some late-day moisture increase across the Peninsula, poor lapse
rates aloft are expected to limit thunderstorm potential.

..Guyer.. 01/17/2026


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SPC Jan 17, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A cyclonic flow pattern will remain over the U.S. today, as a
large-scale upper-level trough moves through the flow into the
southern Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will
settle into the Great Plains. This airmass will reinforce cold and
dry conditions across much of the nation. Thunderstorms may occur
offshore from the central Gulf Coast or eastward off the coast of
south Florida. However, no thunderstorms are forecast across the
continental U.S. today or tonight.

..Broyles/Halbert.. 01/17/2026


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SPC Jan 16, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more info.

..Thornton.. 01/16/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026/

...Discussion...
A longwave trough will remain entrenched from the Rockies eastward,
with multiple shortwave troughs crossing the Upper Midwest and
Rockies. Surface high pressure across the Plains and prevalent cold
and/or stable conditions will considerably limit thunderstorm
potential, even near/ahead of a southeastward-moving front
approaching the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast.


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SPC Jan 16, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight.

...Discussion...
A longwave trough will remain entrenched from the Rockies eastward,
with multiple shortwave troughs crossing the Upper Midwest and
Rockies. Surface high pressure across the Plains and prevalent cold
and/or stable conditions will considerably limit thunderstorm
potential, even near/ahead of a southeastward-moving front
approaching the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast.

..Guyer/Squitieri.. 01/16/2026


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