SPC Sep 25, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday.

...Western OK...
An upper ridge axis will extend from TX to MN on Friday, with an
upper trough rotating eastward out of NM into the southern Plains.
Considerable coverage of thunderstorms has developed this evening
over NM, and is expected to spread northeastward overnight into west
TX and western OK. The associated high-clouds will slow/lessen
daytime heating. A few of the 00z CAM solutions indicate some
concern for a few strong storms across parts of western OK on Friday
afternoon. If strong heating can occur, these storms could pose a
risk of locally damaging gusts. Due to the approaching cloud cover,
will hold off on severe probabilities at this time and re-evaluate
in later outlooks.

...Central/Northeast NM...
Relatively cool mid-level temperatures will be present on Friday
over much of the southwest US, with widespread weak CAPE leading to
scattered coverage of afternoon thunderstorms across much of NM.
Forecast soundings over central/northeast NM show some risk of hail
in the stronger cells. However, parameters are rather weak for
severe-caliber hail so will forego an upgrade at this time.

..Hart/Weinman.. 09/25/2026


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SPC Sep 24, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of marginally severe thunderstorms remain possible late
this afternoon into the early evening across parts of the southern
High Plains.

...20z Update...
No changes were made to the existing outlook with this update cycle
as the forecast remains on track. See the discussion below and MCD
#2327 for additional information.

..Chalmers/Wendt.. 09/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026/

...TX Panhandle into northwest OK and southwest KS...
An extensive plume of mid to upper level moisture currently extends
from southern High Plains through central Plains into the eastern
Dakotas and MN, evidenced by widespread cloudiness and embedded
showers and isolated thunderstorms. This plume is supported by
moderate southwesterly flow aloft between the upper ridging centered
over the Middle/Upper TX coast and lower heights associated with an
amplifying upper trough approaching the coastal Pacific Northwest.

Recent surface analysis shows a corridor of greater low-level
moisture (characterized by mid to upper 60s dewpoints) extending
from the TX Low Rolling Plains through the eastern TX and OK
Panhandles into far southwest KS. Much of this corridor of greater
low-level moisture is just east of the cloudiness (and cooler
surface temperatures) associated with the mid/upper moisture plume.
This region should continue to heat, with afternoon temperatures
reaching the mid to upper 80s. Lapse rates are poor, but the warm
temperatures and ample low-level moisture will still support MLCAPE
from 1500 to 2000 J/kg. This buoyancy combined with low-level
convergence (either on outflow from the ongoing showers or as a
result of differential heating) will support isolated to scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Vertical shear will be
weak across much of the region, and a largely disorganized storm
mode is anticipated. However, a few water-loaded downbursts are
possible with the strongest cells.

Slightly stronger large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear
is expected into KS as a weak convectively augmented vorticity
maximum moves trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
possible here as well, although weaker buoyancy should limit overall
intensity. Even so, a couple of weak supercells capable of isolated
hail and/or damaging gusts may occur.


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SPC Sep 24, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of marginally severe thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon into the early evening across parts of the southern High
Plains.

...TX Panhandle into northwest OK and southwest KS...
An extensive plume of mid to upper level moisture currently extends
from southern High Plains through central Plains into the eastern
Dakotas and MN, evidenced by widespread cloudiness and embedded
showers and isolated thunderstorms. This plume is supported by
moderate southwesterly flow aloft between the upper ridging centered
over the Middle/Upper TX coast and lower heights associated with an
amplifying upper trough approaching the coastal Pacific Northwest.

Recent surface analysis shows a corridor of greater low-level
moisture (characterized by mid to upper 60s dewpoints) extending
from the TX Low Rolling Plains through the eastern TX and OK
Panhandles into far southwest KS. Much of this corridor of greater
low-level moisture is just east of the cloudiness (and cooler
surface temperatures) associated with the mid/upper moisture plume.
This region should continue to heat, with afternoon temperatures
reaching the mid to upper 80s. Lapse rates are poor, but the warm
temperatures and ample low-level moisture will still support MLCAPE
from 1500 to 2000 J/kg. This buoyancy combined with low-level
convergence (either on outflow from the ongoing showers or as a
result of differential heating) will support isolated to scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Vertical shear will be
weak across much of the region, and a largely disorganized storm
mode is anticipated. However, a few water-loaded downbursts are
possible with the strongest cells.

Slightly stronger large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear
is expected into KS as a weak convectively augmented vorticity
maximum moves trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
possible here as well, although weaker buoyancy should limit overall
intensity. Even so, a couple of weak supercells capable of isolated
hail and/or damaging gusts may occur.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 09/24/2026


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SPC Sep 24, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A PORTION OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of marginally severe thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon into the early evening across parts of the southern High
Plains.

...Synopsis...
A relatively amplified large-scale pattern will exist over the
CONUS, with south-central U.S. upper ridging flanked by an evolving
upper trough along the Eastern Seaboard and an amplifying upper
trough approaching the coastal Pacific Northwest.

...TX Panhandle into northwest OK...
A belt of moderately strong southwesterly mid-level flow will reside
over the southern High Plains downstream of an upper trough over AZ
and northwest Mexico. A moisture plume is evident in early morning
surface observations (mid 60s to near 70 deg F) and GPS PW sensors
extending from the middle coast of TX northwestward into the eastern
part of the TX Panhandle. A mid to high-level cloud canopy,
extending from the sub-tropical Pacific through the eastern portion
of the larger-scale upper trough, will continue to overspread the
northwestern envelop of richer moisture over the southern High
Plains. Coincidentally with this mid to upper-level moisture and
episodic shower/thunderstorm activity, mid-level lapse rates will
remain modest and stronger boundary layer heating will likely be
partially thwarted, especially with westward extent. Nonetheless,
models show around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid afternoon over
northwest TX into western OK. Southeasterly low-level flow veering
to southwesterly and strengthening to 25-30 kt at 500-mb will
support some updraft organization potential, and the possibility for
a couple of weak supercells to develop later this afternoon. The
notion for a couple of semi-organized cells is seemingly supported
by recent MPAS and REFS-based guidance from near the Caprock
northeastward through northwest OK and perhaps adjacent portions of
KS.

..Smith/Mead.. 09/24/2026


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