SPC Jun 8, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with large to very large hail, severe wind
gusts potentially above 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible
today from the Front Range east-southeastward into the central
Plains. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in
parts of the southern High Plains, northern Plains and mid
Mississippi Valley. An isolated hail threat may develop toward the
end of the period in the northern High Plains.

...Eastern CO into Western NE/KS...
Relatively fast southwest flow aloft is present today from the
southwest states into the central Rockies. A surface low will
remain over southwest KS through the day, maintaining a stream of
easterly low-level winds and moist advection into eastern CO and
northwest KS. Daytime heating will further aid the westward
transport of moisture, resulting in an unstable air mass over the
foothills near Denver/CO Springs. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop in this corridor this afternoon, in an environment of steep
mid-level lapse rates, CAPE around 1000 J/kg, and favorable
deep-layer shear. Supercell structures capable of large hail will
be the main early threat. As this activity moves/builds eastward
into the Plains, it will encounter increasingly moist/unstable air
and strengthening low-level shear profiles by early evening. This
will promote a risk of a few supercell tornadoes, large hail, and
damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk may be needed in later
updates as clouds/daytime heating and affects of ongoing NE
convection is assessed.

By mid-evening, the activity is expected to be organizing upscale
into linear structures as it moves into southwest NE and northwest
KS. An increasing risk of damaging winds will likely develop, with
storms spreading eastward into the overnight hours.

...Northwest AR...
A cluster of intense thunderstorms is ongoing this morning over
southwest MO/northeast OK. This activity could continue to pose a
risk of isolated damaging wind gusts through the morning into
northwest AR before weakening later today.

...Southern KS/Northwest OK/TX Panhandle...
A dryline will become established this afternoon from the eastern TX
Panhandle to the surface low in south-central KS. Hot conditions
along/west of the dryline will help to initiate isolated
thunderstorms. These high-based cells could pose an occasional
threat of hail and damaging winds for a few hours.

...Eastern KS...
A moist and very unstable air mass will lie across eastern KS today
with CAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg, but with a weak cap. CAM
guidance varies on the potential for afternoon/early evening
thunderstorms in this area, but enough 00z runs suggested a threat
to maintain the SLGT. Any storm that can form would pose a risk of
large hail and damaging winds.

...Southern IL/Western KY...
An upper trough continues to lift northeastward across the mid MS
valley today, with a moist/moderately unstable air mass present from
southern IL southward. Mid-level lapse rates are marginal for
severe storms, and winds aloft are modest. Nevertheless, veering
winds-with-height and sufficient CAPE will pose an occasional risk
of strong storms capable of gusty winds or a tornado today.

..Hart/Wendt.. 06/08/2026


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SPC Jun 8, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with large to very large hail, severe wind
gusts potentially above 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible
today from the Front Range east-southeastward into the central
Plains. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in
parts of the southern High Plains, northern Plains and mid
Mississippi Valley. An isolated hail threat may develop toward the
end of the period in the northern High Plains.

...Front Range Into Central High Plains...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today from the
Intermountain West into the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold
front will advance southward across the central High Plains as a low
deepens ahead of the front. During the afternoon, an axis of
maximized low-level convergence will become focused along the Front
Range of east-central Colorado, along which thunderstorms are
expected in the afternoon. These storms will move eastward out of
the higher terrain into northeast Colorado during the mid to late
afternoon. A line of severe storms is expected to organize by early
evening.

RAP forecast soundings in northeastern Colorado late this afternoon
have MLCAPE peaking around 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 55
knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be around 8.5 C/km.
This will support supercells with large hail, and hailstones greater
than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with any rotating storms
that can become intense. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
is forecast to peak around 200 m2/s2 over parts of northeastern
Colorado during the late afternoon, which will support a tornado
threat. As a cluster moves eastward into the central High Plains,
organization into a line is expected. This will increase the
potential for severe wind gusts, and a few gusts above 70 mph will
be possible.

...Great Plains...
A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the
southern and central Plains today, with surface dewpoints mostly
from the upper 60s F into the mid 70s F. This will enable a pocket
of strong instability to develop by afternoon across central Kansas.
From near the instability max westward, model forecasts suggest that
low-level convergence will become maximized during the afternoon
over parts of western and central Kansas. This should result in
isolated to scattered convective initiation. A cell or two is
expected to develop and move southeastward into the strong
instability during the mid to late afternoon.

RAP forecast soundings near the instability max at 21Z have MLCAPE
near 4000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb
lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This will be favorable for supercells
with large hail and severe wind gusts. Low-level shear may also
support a conditional and isolated tornado threat. In addition, the
strong instability will contribute to a potential for hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts above 70 mph with
the more intense rotating cells.

...Mid Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level trough will move northeastward today across the mid
Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate
instability is forecast from far western Kentucky into southern
Illinois. Along this axis, deep-layer shear is forecast to be
sufficient for an isolated severe threat. As low-level lapse rates
steepen in the late afternoon, a few severe wind gusts will be
possible.

...Northern High Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western U.S.
today, as mid-level heights fall over the northern High Plains.
Ahead of the trough, a surface low will form in eastern Montana
tonight, as upslope flow develops to the east of the low. Near the
surface low, low-level convergence is forecast to become maximized
late in the period, which will support isolated thunderstorm
development from northeast Montana into far northwestern North
Dakota. Instability, deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates may be
sufficient for an isolated hail threat, mainly between 09Z and 12Z
Tuesday morning.

..Broyles/Supinie.. 06/08/2026


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SPC Jun 8, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A line of severe thunderstorms with wind gusts potentially above 75
mph is expected over the northern High Plains this evening, with
large to very large hail and an isolated tornado threat also
possible. A couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are also
possible in the Ozarks.

...Northern High Plains...
At mid-levels, an upper-level trough is moving eastward into the
northern Rockies. Further east, a lead shortwave trough is evident
on water vapor imagery over the northern High Plains. At the
surface, a 994 mb low is located in northwestern North Dakota with a
surface trough extending southward into northwestern South Dakota. A
cold front is in far western North Dakota. To the east of the front,
surface dewpoints are mostly in the upper 50s and lower 60s F, and
moderate instability is in place. Numerous thunderstorms have
recently developed to the west of the instability axis, and these
storms are expected to organize into an intense line segment over
the next couple of hours.

RAP forecast soundings in western North Dakota ahead of the storms
have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 55 knot range, with 850 to 500 mb
lapse rates between 7.5 and 8 C/km. In addition, surface
temperature-dewpoint spreads exceed 25 degrees F over much area.
This environment will be very favorable for severe wind gusts. The
greatest potential for severe gusts will be from far northwest South
Dakota northeastward into much of western and north-central North
Dakota. Along this corridor, a nearly continuous bowing line is
expected to organize. Severe wind gusts above 75 mph will be
possible with the more intense segments. In addition to the
wind-damage threat, large to very large hail will be possible over
the next couple hours with storms that obtain supercell structure. A
tornado or two could also occur.

...Ozarks...
A mid-level trough will move northeastward across the central U.S.
this evening. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass is
in place from the southern and central Plains eastward into the
lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Scattered strong thunderstorms are
ongoing along an axis of moderate instability over the Ozarks of
southern and central Missouri, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500
to 2000 J/kg range. Ahead of the mid-level trough, low-level flow is
forecast to become maximized in the Ozarks over the next couple of
hours. Forecast soundings near Springfield, Missouri by 03Z have 0-3
km storm-relative helicity around 180 m2/s2. This will support a
tornado threat. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible.

..Broyles.. 06/08/2026


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SPC Jun 7, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
WESTERN OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with significant wind gusts,
large hail, and an isolated tornado threat are expected this
afternoon and evening across parts of the northern Plains. A couple
of tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are possible across the
Ozarks region.

...MT/WY/Dakotas...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a strong upper trough
over the northwestern CONUS and it is forecast to pivot eastward
through the northern High Plains through tonight. Surface
mesoanalysis placed a low near the MT/ND/SD border with a frontal
zone draped southwest to northeast from northeastern WY into far
western ND. Cyclogenesis and strong heating/moistening of the
boundary layer will favor storm development by mid afternoon in the
vicinity of the Big Horns. Relatively steep low-level lapse rates
on the immediate cool side of the frontal zone and moderate CAPE
values will support a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts once
storms begin to mature. A linear cluster is expected to evolve
during the late afternoon into potentially a bow echo during the
early evening with the severe-wind risk notably increasing and
becoming more widespread. Have increased the intensity highlight
from southeast MT into western portions of ND where it seems
increasingly probable a swath of intense gusts ---possibly a bow
echo--- is progged by a diverse array of different model cores/runs
this morning. This model signal appears reasonable given the
co-location of surface features, lapse rates, and upper-level
support. It is within this mesoscale corridor that localized peak
gusts may range 85-100 mph. Considered an upgrade to Moderate Risk
but will defer to the 20 UTC outlook for additional model run-to-run
continuity and confidence in mesoscale environmental features. This
activity will sweep northeastward during the evening with a gradual
lessening of the wind/hail hazard towards the early overnight as it
moves east into the eastern half of the Dakotas late.

...Ozarks...
A weak trough/low over the central US with embedded disturbances
from OK into IA continues to drift northeastward late this
morning. An associated band of 30-40 knot southwesterly mid-level
winds and deep moisture will lie across the Ozark plateau this
afternoon. The 12 UTC Springfield, MO raob sampled this belt of
stronger flow with 80-kt at 200 mb. Heating of a very moist airmass
with some minor enlargement of low-level hodographs may result a few
weak supercells developing coincident with peak heating. A couple
of brief tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are possible with
this activity.

...Eastern VA/NC...
A weak surface cold front is sagging southward across central VA
this morning. A combination of strong heating and frontal forcing
will lead to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across
southeast VA and northeast NC. The strongest of these cells could
produce gusty winds.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 06/07/2026


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