SPC Jun 24, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+
mph gusts, and isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High
Plains into parts of the southern Plains tonight.

...Central High Plains into the southern Plains...
Three primary areas of thunderstorms currently exist across the
region: southeast WY, east-central CO, and the TX South Plains
vicinity. The northernmost cluster across southeast WY has struggled
to maintain intensity, likely due to modest convective inhibition
remaining in place. Even so, given the favorable low-level moisture
downstream, there is still some chance for intensification.
Environmental conditions support the potential for large hail up to
2 inches in diameter and isolated severe gusts with any storms that
can mature into the more favorable buoyancy downstream.

Large to very large hail remains possible for at least the next
several hours with the discrete, splitting storms across
east-central CO. Strong outflow (greater than 50 kt) remains
possible as well. Additional storm development appears likely in
this area amid persistent low-level moisture advection and a
strengthening low-level jet. These additional storms will have
similar hazards, with large to very large hail as the primary risk.
Hail from 2" to 3.5" in diameter is possible. Strong gusts could
become more likely with time if cold pool amalgamation results in a
forward-propagating cluster.

Several supercells continue across the TX South Plains. A
strengthening low-level jet and steep mid-level lapse rates will
help maintain the risk for large to very large hail and severe gusts
with these storms for at least the next several hours.

...Arklatex and vicinity...
Ongoing cluster moving through the Arklatex will likely continue
southeastward tonight, with an attendant risk for isolated damaging
gusts. Some hail is possible as well, particularly late
tonight/early tomorrow with any warm-air advection storms that
develop in the wake of this cluster.

..Mosier.. 06/24/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TTBFns

SPC Jun 23, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND COLORADO FRONT RANGE...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+
mph gusts, and isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High
Plains into parts of the southern Plains through tonight. Other
severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Virginia and
eastern North Carolina, as well across the Upper Midwest.

...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was a westward expansion of
severe probabilities (including the ENH) toward the higher terrain
in southern/central CO. Rich boundary-layer moisture (middle/upper
60s dewpoints) along the western edge of convectively reinforced
outflow in the central High Plains will spread westward beneath
steep midlevel lapse rates toward the higher terrain through this
afternoon into tonight -- in response to a passing midlevel wave to
the north. This rich moisture/outflow and enhanced easterly upslope
flow should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms along
the higher terrain into this evening. Around 50 kt of effective
shear and strong surface-based buoyancy will promote supercells
capable of producing very large hail along the I-25 corridor.

Elsewhere, only minor modifications were made to the outlook, to
include trimming severe probabilities behind eastward-spreading
convection in the Mid-Atlantic, and a southward expansion of
probabilities in the southern Plains (ahead of southward-moving
thunderstorm clusters).

..Weinman.. 06/23/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026/

...Southern Plains and Central High Plains...
Complex scenario exist with multiple iterations of convective
clusters ongoing regionally at midday, including a relatively more
intense/focused cluster near the southwest Oklahoma and eastern
Texas Panhandle border vicinity. These storms are likely to persist
generally south-southeastward today, and potentially grow upscale
with continued wind/hail potential, but details are complicated by
prevalent outflow/cloud debris etc. Additional development may occur
later today into tonight on the west-northwest fringe of these early
day storms/residual outflows and near the front/east of the surface
low, which could bring about a renewed severe potential mainly in
the form of large hail and damaging winds. However, recent HRRR runs
(14z/15z) have notably trended much more limited with this
late-day/evening redevelopment scenario.

Farther west/north, weak low-level upslope flow and a small-scale
mid-level perturbation embedded within the westerly flow aloft
should encourage at least isolated convective development across
southeast Wyoming into eastern Colorado by late afternoon, and more
so, into early/mid evening. A conditionally favorable environment
for very large hail will exist across the central High Plains this
afternoon into tonight. Any thunderstorms that can develop will
likely become severe given strong deep-layer shear, the presence of
steep mid-level lapse rates, and moderate to locally strong
instability. Even though low-level flow and shear will remain modest
this evening across the central High Plains, a tornado may still
occur with any sustained supercell.

...Southeast Virginia/Eastern North Carolina...
Within large-scale upper troughing over the eastern CONUS/Canada, an
embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today across
the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold
front will also develop eastward across these areas through the
afternoon. Thunderstorms will increase through early/mid afternoon
along and ahead of the front. While lapse rates aloft will remain
poor, sufficient instability will exist with daytime heating to
support surface-based convection. A generally linear/cluster mode is
anticipated given the frontal forcing, with modestly enhanced and
increasing low/mid-level flow and related shear supporting
thunderstorm organization. Scattered damaging winds appear to be the
main threat with this activity as it spreads eastward through the
afternoon, with the greatest concentration forecast across parts of
southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina. A brief tornado or
two may also occur.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
A closed mid-level low over south-central Canada this morning will
move slowly eastward today. A belt of enhanced (40-50 kt) westerly
mid-level winds will overspread parts of the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest to the south of this low. At the surface, a cold front
in the process of occluding is located over the Dakotas.
Thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/east of this
boundary across parts of the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota.
Given sufficient deep-layer shear and instability, some of this
activity is expected to pose a severe hail/wind risk, along with the
potential for a couple of tornadoes in immediate proximity of the
surface boundary where low-level CAPE/shear will be maximized.

...Coastal Southeast...
Isolated severe thunderstorms mainly capable of downbursts/wind
damage will be possible this afternoon within a moist and unstable
airmass for areas including far southern Georgia and northern
Florida.


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TTB6pm

SPC Jun 23, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+
mph gusts, and isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High
Plains into parts of the southern Plains today into tonight.
Scattered damaging winds should also occur with thunderstorms across
southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina.

...Southern Plains...
Mainly elevated thunderstorms are occurring across western/southwest
KS into northwest OK this morning, aided by a 20-25 kt southerly
low-level jet and attendant warm/moist advection. This convection
may tend to remain elevated for at least the next couple of hours,
as a surface front remains draped near the Red River vicinity.
However, there is substantial low-level moisture present across the
TX Panhandle into western OK along/south of the ongoing
thunderstorms (upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints). Steep
mid-level lapse rates atop this moist airmass is supporting MUCAPE
up to 3000-4000 J/kg. Strongly veering and modestly strengthening
winds with height through mid/upper levels is fostering upwards of
40-50 kt of effective bulk shear per recent RAP forecast soundings
and latest mesoanalysis estimates. This activity will likely
continue to pose a threat for mainly large hail this morning so long
as the mode remains supercellular.

With time, mergers/outflow interactions should foster some
clustering/upscale growth into the afternoon. There is some
potential for a more concentrated corridor of severe/damaging winds
to spread southward this afternoon and evening across parts of the
TX Panhandle into western/central OK with one or more intense
clusters that form. Isolated significant gusts to 75-85 mph gusts
appear possible given an already very moist/unstable airmass that
will undergo additional destabilization with daytime heating.
Strongly considered increasing wind probabilities and introducing an
Enhanced Risk for this area. But, ongoing morning convection casts a
little too much uncertainty to upgrade with this outlook update.

...Central High Plains...
Thunderstorms ongoing across western NE this morning on the northern
periphery of the low-level jet and related moisture plume have
recently weakened. Still, this convection may continue to pose an
isolated severe hail/wind risk for as long as it can persist. But,
additional weakening is expected later this morning as it encounters
a less unstable airmass. Otherwise, westerly mid-level flow and weak
forcing will persist over the central High Plains today. Weak
low-level upslope flow and a small-scale mid-level perturbation
embedded within the westerly flow aloft should encourage at least
isolated convective development across southeast WY into eastern CO
by early/mid evening.

Model trends suggest that robust convective initiation may be
delayed until 00Z or perhaps even later (04-06Z). Still, a
conditionally favorable environment for very large hail will exist
across the central High Plains this afternoon into tonight. Any
thunderstorms that can develop will likely become severe given
strong deep-layer shear, the presence of steep mid-level lapse
rates, and moderate to locally strong instability. Have maintained
the Enhanced Risk for large to very large hail, but lower confidence
exists for a swath of severe/damaging winds given the probable late
timing of convection and tendency for this activity to remain
discrete. Even though low-level flow and shear will remain modest
this evening across the central High Plains, a tornado may still
occur with any sustained supercell.

...Southeast Virginia/Eastern North Carolina...
Within large-scale upper troughing over the eastern CONUS/Canada, an
embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today across
the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold
front will also develop eastward across these areas through the
afternoon. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop by
late morning/early afternoon along and ahead of the front. While
lapse rates aloft will remain poor, sufficient instability will
exist with daytime heating to support surface-based convection. A
generally linear/cluster mode is anticipated given the frontal
forcing, with modestly enhanced low/mid-level flow and related shear
supporting thunderstorm organization. Scattered damaging winds
appear to be the main threat with this activity as it spreads
eastward through the afternoon, with the greatest concentration
forecast across parts of southeast VA and eastern NC. A brief
tornado or two may also occur with embedded mesocirculations in the
line.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
A closed mid-level low over south-central Canada this morning will
move slowly eastward today. A belt of enhanced (40-50 kt) westerly
mid-level winds will overspread parts of the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest to the south of this low. At the surface, a cold front
in the process of occluding is located over the Dakotas.
Thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/east of this
boundary across parts of the eastern Dakotas into western MN. Given
sufficient deep-layer shear and instability, some of this activity
may pose an isolated severe hail/wind risk, along with a tornado or
two. Modest instability should keep the overall severe risk fairly
isolated/marginal.

..Gleason/Jewell.. 06/23/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TT9v3C

SPC Jun 23, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC...

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+ mph gusts, and
isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High Plains into
parts of the central and southern Plains today into tonight.
Damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may occur with storms
along the Mid-Atlantic. Scattered storms capable of isolated severe
wind/hail are possible across the northern Plains into the upper
Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will impinge on the Eastern Seaboard while upper
ridging builds over the western into central CONUS today. Multiple
mid-level impulses are poised to traverse the upper ridge,
supporting at least scattered thunderstorm development in multiple
rounds across the Plains. These rounds of storms will encompass the
entire period (12Z Tuesday morning through 12Z Wednesday morning),
resulting in a complex forecast. Nonetheless, stronger flow aloft
associated with the ridge will advect an EML atop seasonal low-level
moisture, resulting in enough buoyancy and vertical wind shear to
support an appreciable severe threat, especially over the central
High Plains. Otherwise, a cold front approaching the East Coast will
support a line of severe thunderstorms over the Mid-Atlantic.

...Portions of the central High Plains...
By afternoon peak heating, upslope flow beneath a glancing mid-level
impulse will support the initiation of at least isolated storms.
These storms will develop atop a relatively mixed boundary layer and
surface dewpoints approaching 60 F, overspread by 9 C/km mid-level
lapse rates, resulting in moderate to locally strong buoyancy (i.e.
3000+ J/kg MLCAPE). Strong vertical wind shear will also be in
place, with 50 kts of effective bulk shear driven by elongated
hodographs with modest low-level curvature. Supercells will be the
primary storm mode, accompanied by a threat for all hazards. Given
the potential for a mixed boundary layer, intense gusts well
exceeding 75 mph will be possible, in addition to hailstones
potentially reaching the 2-3.5 inch range. Any supercells that can
ingest terrain-induced low-level vertical vorticity may be
accompanied by a landspout/hybrid tornado threat.

...Portions of the central and southern Plains...
A surface boundary currently resides along the Red River, with
thunderstorms developing all along this boundary from the TX
Panhandle to central MS. At the start of the forecast period (12Z
Tuesday), an established low-level jet will be in the process of
transporting a moist low-level airmass northward, perhaps
encouraging northward movement of the surface boundary as well.
However, an MCS may develop somewhere along the KS/OK border at the
start of the period along an elevated boundary, which will drift
southeastward through the late morning/early afternoon hours. The
evolution of this MCS and interacting convection with the
aforementioned surface boundary introduces considerable uncertainty
to the forecast, especially for late afternoon/early evening storms.

If the MCS and merging surface boundary convection linger over the
southern Plains through the day, later severe potential may be
reduced. However, if convection can exit the Plains or somehow
dissipate by late morning/early afternoon, enough destabilization
may take place for an evening severe threat. Should the later
scenario unfold, convective initiation over the southern High Plains
may result in severe hail/wind producing supercells merging into a
cold-pool driven MCS, which in turn may produce a severe wind swath
with 75+ mph gusts. Given so much uncertainty with the details of
this forecast, a broad area of 15 percent/CIG1 probabilities were
introduced for portions of the central and southern Plains.
Considerable adjustments to this forecast (upgrades or probabilities
removal) may be needed depending on convective and subsequent
modified environmental evolution through the first half of the
period.

...Parts of the Northern Plains...
Cold temperatures aloft and 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates will
accompany the passage of an upper low over parts of the northern
Plains into the Upper MS Valley. By afternoon peak heating,
thunderstorms initiating along the periphery of the upper low, amid
a belt of stronger flow aloft (driving elongated hodographs) will
support multicells and perhaps transient supercells capable of
isolated severe wind and hail.

...Mid-Atlantic...
By late morning into early afternoon, surface temperatures warming
into the 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints will yield over 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE, but distributed through tall/thin profiles given poor (5-6
C/km) mid-level lapse rates. Nearly unidirectional tropospheric wind
profiles will yield nearly 40 kts of effective (speed) shear, which
will favor multicellular development and ultimately a squall line
along/ahead of the cold front. Damaging gusts are expected to be the
main threat, though a brief tornado may also occur wherever locally
backed near-surface winds may be realized.

..Squitieri/Halbert.. 06/23/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TT9Z2S