SPC Feb 6, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities appear less than 10 percent across the
U.S tonight.

...01Z Update...

...Southwest...
A short wave trough approaching a blocking mid-level ridge centered
inland of the U.S. Pacific coast continues to split, with one
emerging perturbation now digging toward southern California and
Baja, where weak larger-scale preceding troughing is already slowly
accelerating north/northeastward, inland across coastal areas. As
this continues tonight, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture of
sub-tropical eastern Pacific origin is forecast to continue to
advect northward across portions of southern California through the
Mojave Desert and lower Colorado Valley. Coincident with steepening
lapse rates aided by mid-level cooling, Rapid Refresh and NAM
forecast soundings continue to indicate layers of weak conditional
instability developing across the region overnight. The evolution
of profiles conducive to convection capable of producing lightning
remains a bit unclear, but still seems generally low through at
least 12Z Friday..

..Kerr.. 02/06/2026


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SPC Feb 5, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
through tonight.

Relatively dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms
across the CONUS today.

..Hart.. 02/05/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026/

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery reveals a considerably amplified upper
pattern featuring an eastern CONUS upper trough and a western CONUS
Rex Block anchored by expansive ridging from Mexico into British
Columbia. Within the eastern CONUS troughing, a shortwave trough
currently extends from the central Appalachians southwestward into
the north-central Gulf. Surface low associated with this shortwave
is currently off the South Carolina coast, with an attendant cold
front extending back southwestward across south Florida. This
surface low is forecast to eject northeastward into more of the
western Atlantic as its parent shortwave progresses eastward and the
cold front pushes through the remainder of south Florida. Modest
low-level moisture precedes this front across south Florida, but
tempered heating and warm temperatures aloft will mitigate any
buoyancy and no thunderstorms are anticipated. Cool and stable
conditions will preclude thunderstorms elsewhere across the CONUS.


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SPC Feb 5, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough
progressing east across the Southeast while a ridge resides over the
Interior West. A cold front will continue to push southeast across
the FL Peninsula today with cool/stable conditions accompanying high
pressure across the Southeast. Tranquil conditions will prevail
across the Lower 48 states.

..Smith/Jewell.. 02/05/2026


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SPC Feb 5, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 PM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms probabilities across the U.S. appear less than 10
percent tonight.

...01Z Update...
Larger-scale mid-level troughing may take on a bit less of a
positive tilt while approaching the southern Atlantic Seaboard later
tonight, as the most vigorous embedded short wave perturbation
begins to pivot eastward after digging into the northwestern Gulf
coast vicinity. However, colder mid-level temperatures are forecast
to continue to lag to the northwest and west of the associated
surface cold front, which may overspread much of northern Florida
and the west central peninsula by 12Z Thursday. Forecast soundings
suggest that lower/mid-tropospheric moistening and forcing for
large-scale ascent along and ahead of the front may contribute to a
layer of weak destabilization supportive of heavier showers into and
across the Greater Tampa vicinity, and perhaps much of the I-4
corridor, late tonight. However, given relatively warm equilibrium
(and likely cloud top) temperatures, the potential for lightning
appears low.

..Kerr.. 02/05/2026


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