SPC Feb 4, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CST Tue Feb 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected today through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Late-evening surface observations show a cold front advancing south
into the northwestern Gulf/lower MS River Valley. This feature is
expected to continue southeastward over the next 24 hours amid
building high pressure across the central CONUS. Despite seasonal
moisture in place along the Gulf Coast, warm mid-level
temperatures/poor lapse rates will largely limit much appreciable
buoyancy. However, forecast soundings suggest sufficient MUCAPE for
isolated thunderstorms may develop within the pre-frontal air mass
by late morning/early afternoon across the northern Gulf into parts
of southern AL and the FL Panhandle. Given the poor thermodynamic
environment, severe/organized convection is not expected, and any
appreciable lightning threat to land should diminish after 00 UTC.

..Moore/Wendt.. 02/04/2026


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SPC Feb 4, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CST Tue Feb 03 2026

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
A surface cold front is evident in 00 UTC surface observations
extending from Middle TN southwestward to the TX Coastal Plain with
thunderstorms ongoing across portions of southeast TX into western
LA. This activity is expected to spread southeastward into the
northwestern Gulf through 12 UTC in tandem with the surface front. A
recent 00 UTC sounding from CRP sampled around 500 J/kg SBCAPE, but
the onset of nocturnal cooling should begin to modulate buoyancy
heading into the late evening/overnight hours. While forcing along
the front will continue to support convection, thunderstorm
intensity will likely continue to wane and limit the potential for
organized convection given the deteriorating thermodynamic
conditions.

..Moore.. 02/04/2026


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SPC Feb 3, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
Upper pattern is expected to amplify today, largely a consequence of
a deepening central/eastern CONUS upper trough. This large-scale
deepening will be fostered by the progression and evolution of
several shortwave troughs as they move through the western and
southern periphery of the parent upper troughing. The first of these
waves is currently moving southeastward through the Lower MO Valley,
with continued east-southeastward/eastward motion expected to take
this wave across the Mid-South, TN Valley, and central Appalachians
today.

A modest warm sector precedes this lead wave, with some low-level
moisture return currently noted across the TX Coastal Plains into
central and east TX. Some moisture return today will continue as the
shortwave progresses eastward and an associated cold front pushes
southeastward across TX and the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley. However,
much of the central Gulf basin remains fairly dry due to previous
frontal intrusions, likely limiting the overall moisture return from
the Lower MS Valley eastward across the remainder of the Southeast.
This will confine the better low-level moisture return to the TX
Gulf Coast and southwest LA. Warm-air advection across this modestly
moist portion of the warm sector could contribute to some buoyancy.
However, tempered heating and poor lapse rates will mitigate the
overall magnitude of any buoyancy that does develop. Even so,
occasional updrafts should still be deep enough for isolated
lightning, particularly from east TX into central LA where the
highest thunderstorm coverage is anticipated. Modest vertical shear
will be in place, but the overall severe risk will be limited by
weak buoyancy.

..Mosier/Thornton.. 02/03/2026


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SPC Feb 3, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...Northwest Gulf Coast into the Ark-La-Miss...
The low-level airmass over this region is continuing to slowly
modify after a previous arctic intrusion into the Gulf basin. Only
limited diurnal destabilization (i.e., mainly 50s surface dewpoints
yielding weak CAPE) is expected within a warm conveyor extending
across the central Gulf Coast states eastward into the southern
Appalachians. A mid-level trough will approach the region and aid
in pushing a cold front southeast. Forecast soundings suggest weak,
isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over east TX and
the Ark-La-Tex before shifting east-southeast across the lower MS
Valley later this evening into tonight.

..Smith/Jewell.. 02/03/2026


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