SPC Oct 17, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...AND
WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible this evening and tonight from the southern and central
Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.

...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
An upper trough over the western states will maintain deep
southwesterly flow across the Plains states. A surface cold front
currently extending from eastern NE into the TX Panhandle will sag
southeastward into a somewhat moist and unstable air mass, providing
the focus for scattered thunderstorms. Convection now occurring in
southeast NE will expand eastward and southward this afternoon, with
storms building southwestward along the front into OK through the
evening. Thermodynamic parameters are relatively weak, with poor
lapse rates and marginal CAPE. However, the combination of frontal
forcing and favorable shear profiles may result in isolated strong
storms this evening capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds.

..Hart/Kerr.. 10/17/2025


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SPC Oct 17, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF OK
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated hail and strong to severe wind gusts
will be possible this evening through the overnight period from the
southern and central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level cyclone initially near the ND/MB border will move
northeastward through the day, as a trailing positive-tilt trough
and attendant weak cold front move eastward across the Upper Midwest
into the central/southern Great Plains. A mid/upper-level shortwave
near the base of this trough is forecast to amplify by late in the
period across the southern Rockies. Farther northwest, an upstream
shortwave trough and vigorous mid/upper-level jet will dig
southeastward across the northern Rockies late tonight.

...Parts of the southern/central Plains into the lower MO Valley...
Weak to locally moderate destabilization will be possible by late
afternoon from parts of the southern/central Plains into the lower
MO Valley, along/ahead of the weak surface trough/front. Generally
weak midlevel lapse rates and modest large-scale ascent will tend to
limit diurnal storm potential, but isolated strong-storm development
cannot be ruled out by early evening. An increase in primarily
elevated convection is expected from mid/late evening onward, in
response to a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, and eventual
approach of the southern Rockies shortwave trough.

Increasing deep-layer flow/shear and some steepening of midlevel
lapse rates late in the period will support potential for at least
transient storm organization tonight, though guidance continues to
vary regarding the coverage and intensity of overnight elevated
convection. Isolated large hail and localized strong/damaging gusts
will be possible with the strongest storms into early Saturday
morning.

..Dean/Thornton.. 10/17/2025


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SPC Oct 16, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe hail and gusty winds will be
possible today across parts of eastern Colorado, western Kansas, and
southwest Nebraska.

...20Z Update...
Only minor updates were made to the general thunderstorm forecast.
Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast remains on track. See the
previous discussion for additional details.

..Wendt.. 10/16/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025/

...Central High Plains...
A large upper trough/low is centered over the Great Basin today,
with an upper ridge over the lower MS Valley. This pattern will
maintain strong and deep southwesterly flow across the central High
Plains, along with a corridor of sufficient low/mid level moisture
for scattered thunderstorms. Convection currently ongoing in
western KS/NE will likely persist through the day and shift
eastward, with an axis of strong heating developing from eastern CO
into southwest NE. New thunderstorm development is likely in this
thermal axis around sunset as the primary cold front approaches from
the northwest. Forecast soundings suggest a 2-3 hour period
favorable for a few intense thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail.


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SPC Oct 16, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe hail and gusty winds will be
possible today across parts of eastern Colorado, western Kansas, and
southwest Nebraska.

...Central High Plains...
A large upper trough/low is centered over the Great Basin today,
with an upper ridge over the lower MS Valley. This pattern will
maintain strong and deep southwesterly flow across the central High
Plains, along with a corridor of sufficient low/mid level moisture
for scattered thunderstorms. Convection currently ongoing in
western KS/NE will likely persist through the day and shift
eastward, with an axis of strong heating developing from eastern CO
into southwest NE. New thunderstorm development is likely in this
thermal axis around sunset as the primary cold front approaches from
the northwest. Forecast soundings suggest a 2-3 hour period
favorable for a few intense thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail.

..Hart/Kerr.. 10/16/2025


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