SPC Oct 23, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging gusts and an isolated
tornado are possible across portions of New Mexico, southern
Colorado, and far west Texas today into tonight.

...NM and far west TX this afternoon into early tonight...
An initial shortwave trough will continue to eject
north-northeastward over WY as an upstream wave evolves into a new
closed low over the lower CO River Valley. A surface cyclone will
develop from eastern MT into MB in advance of the lead shortwave
trough, with a trailing baroclinic zone across CO/northwest NM and
central AZ. A moisture plume persists along and southeast of the
baroclinic zone, with the most favorable moisture profiles for
thunderstorm development expected this afternoon/evening across NM.

Forcing for ascent will be relatively weak across NM this afternoon,
so surface heating and terrain influences will drive widely
scattered thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon as
temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s (depending on elevation).
Observed boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 50s and the warming
temperatures will contribute to MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg with
minimal convective inhibition. Long, straight hodographs will
persist beneath a belt of enhanced mid-upper flow and will favor
supercells this afternoon in NM, with some potential for growth into
small clusters/line segments. Large hail and occasional severe
outflow gusts are expected to be the primary threats, though an
isolated tornado may also occur. The severe threat will peak late
afternoon and diminish by early tonight.

..Thompson/Halbert.. 10/23/2026


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SPC Oct 23, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two
are possible across portions of New Mexico and southern Colorado
today into tonight.

An elongated western US trough will drift eastward today as the
primary vort max is forecast to lift northeastward across the Great
Basin into the northern Rockies through tonight. A secondary
shortwave perturbation will round the base of the trough and
approach coastal southern CA. Despite the fragmented nature of the
upper trough, mid-level meridional flow will remain fairly strong
from portions of northern Mexico to the Canadian border. Ascent
associated with both perturbations and the strong flow crossing the
higher terrain will aid in developing a lee cyclone across eastern
MT. A trailing lee trough will connect to a second, much weaker,
cyclone over southern NM and northern Senora. This will support
modest northward return of unseasonably robust moisture, and
subsequent destabilization across NM and the southern High Plains
favorable for strong to severe storms.

...New Mexico and southern Colorado...
Remnant showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are likely to be
ongoing early this morning across the higher terrain of northern NM
and southern CO. The impact this convection and cloud debris will
have on later convective development is somewhat uncertain.
Regardless, mid-level ascent, persistent upslope flow and continued
advection of 50-60 F surface dewpoints should result in adequate
destabilization (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) by early afternoon across
southern CO and northern NM. Subsequent development and
intensification of multiple rounds of thunderstorms are likely, with
organization into supercells and clusters expected, owing to
elongated and fairly straight hodographs. Hail will be the primary
risk, with isolated strong gusts possible as well. However, some
veering in the low-levels, aided by terrain-induced backing of the
flow and moist low-levels could support a low-probability tornado
risk with the strongest supercells.

Farther south more robust diurnal heating is expected to develop
where clearing should be more prominent. Afternoon MLCAPE of
1000-2000 J/kg is likely to exist amidst the strong wind fields.
While low-level flow is expected to remain more veered with the
weaker surface pressure response, straight hodographs and effective
shear greater than 40 kt will still favor splitting supercells.
Large hail (some 2+ inch) is possible. The deeper mixing, especially
with eastward extent in southern NM and far west TX, may also
support some damaging/severe gust potential if storms remain higher
based.

...High Plains...
A more isolated severe risk could develop within the foothills and
adjacent high Plains of southeastern CO where modest buoyancy,
increasingly strong flow aloft, and steeper low-level lapse rates
will exist. Convection emanating from the higher terrain could
persist into the drier and more deeply mixed air mass beginning mid
to late afternoon, enhancing downdrafts and damaging gust potential.
The degree of organization/intensity of these storms is uncertain,
but 5% wind probabilities have been added.

..Lyons/Thornton.. 10/23/2026


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SPC Oct 22, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
ARIZONA/WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across the Southwest,
with the most intense cells expected across parts of Arizona and
western New Mexico this afternoon and evening. Large hail, damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

...20z Update...
Convective coverage has increased across portions of
eastern/northeastern Arizona over the past couple of hours, with
widely scattered supercell structures noted through the
morning/early afternoon via regional radar imagery. Expectations
remain generally unchanged regarding the evolution of this
convection and the associated severe threat across much of eastern
Arizona/western New Mexico and the Four Corners region. Thus, no
changes were made to the primary risk area.

Along the periphery, a minor eastward expansion of the existing
Level 1/Marginal Risk was made along the central CO/NM border where
some low-probability potential for mainly damaging wind gusts may
persist farther eastward. Elsewhere, only minor adjustments were
made to the General Thunder area, including some trimming along the
California coastline to the west of the mid/upper trough axis. See
the previous discussion and MCD #2399 for additional information.

..Chalmers.. 10/22/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026/

...Arizona/Four Corners and Great Basin...
Another active and relatively rare setup from a climatological
perspective continues regionally, and will tend to shift
east-northeastward through the afternoon and evening. This will be
as the upper low in vicinity of the SoCal coast continues to become
more northeastward progressive today, reaching portions of the Great
Basin and lower Colorado River Valley by this evening.

Scenario will continue to favor supercells, particularly for eastern
Arizona and western New Mexico from a longer-duration and tornado
perspective, as low-level winds otherwise will tend to take on more
of a westerly component over time farther west across Arizona as the
upper trough approaches. Severe probabilities have been
increased/expanded northward toward the Four Corners/Colorado
Plateau vicinity, where an atypically rare setup of
deep-layer/low-level shear coincident with modest but adequate
severe-conducive degree of destabilization is expected.

As compared to yesterday, a greater coverage of storms will likely
exist by later today/afternoon, which may mean a less-discrete
nature of the supercells, but with more numerous
severe-caliber/supercell storms capable of large hail, damaging
winds and a tornado risk. Recent Tucson WSR-88D VWP data still
reflects strong low-level shear/SRH and (splitting)
supercell-favorable deep-layer wind profiles, with the probability
that tornado potential will probably maximize across eastern
Arizona/far western New Mexico this afternoon into evening,
especially where topography influences a low-level easterly wind
component. Large hail will be associated with both left-moving and
right-moving supercells.

Farther north-northwest into the Great Basin, both low-level
moisture and related MLCAPE are generally more limited. Even so,
multiple corridors of isolated severe hail/wind and brief tornado
potential will exist this afternoon. This will be as semi-low-topped
convection develops ahead of the eastward-translating upper
trough/low amid strong southerly flow/shear through much of the
troposphere.


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SPC Oct 22, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
ARIZONA/WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FOUR CORNERS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest,
with the most intense cells expected across parts of Arizona and
western New Mexico this afternoon and evening. Large hail, damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

...Arizona/Four Corners and Great Basin...
Another active and relatively rare setup from a climatological
perspective continues regionally, and will tend to shift
east-northeastward through the afternoon and evening. This will be
as the upper low in vicinity of the SoCal coast continues to become
more northeastward progressive today, reaching portions of the Great
Basin and lower Colorado River Valley by this evening.

Scenario will continue to favor supercells, particularly for eastern
Arizona and western New Mexico from a longer-duration and tornado
perspective, as low-level winds otherwise will tend to take on more
of a westerly component over time farther west across Arizona as the
upper trough approaches. Severe probabilities have been
increased/expanded northward toward the Four Corners/Colorado
Plateau vicinity, where an atypically rare setup of
deep-layer/low-level shear coincident with modest but adequate
severe-conducive degree of destabilization is expected.

As compared to yesterday, a greater coverage of storms will likely
exist by later today/afternoon, which may mean a less-discrete
nature of the supercells, but with more numerous
severe-caliber/supercell storms capable of large hail, damaging
winds and a tornado risk. Recent Tucson WSR-88D VWP data still
reflects strong low-level shear/SRH and (splitting)
supercell-favorable deep-layer wind profiles, with the probability
that tornado potential will probably maximize across eastern
Arizona/far western New Mexico this afternoon into evening,
especially where topography influences a low-level easterly wind
component. Large hail will be associated with both left-moving and
right-moving supercells.

Farther north-northwest into the Great Basin, both low-level
moisture and related MLCAPE are generally more limited. Even so,
multiple corridors of isolated severe hail/wind and brief tornado
potential will exist this afternoon. This will be as semi-low-topped
convection develops ahead of the eastward-translating upper
trough/low amid strong southerly flow/shear through much of the
troposphere.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 10/22/2026


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