SPC Jul 19, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon over
portions of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable
of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible late this afternoon
through tonight from the Dakotas into Minnesota.

...Dakotas/MN this afternoon into tonight...
A midlevel trough over southern SK will suppress the northern extent
of the ridge over the Great Plains as an associated surface
trough/front moves into ND this afternoon. Strong surface
heating/mixing and weak ascent along the wind shift could support
thunderstorm development after about 22z beginning in south central
ND and expanding into northern SD and northeast ND through late
evening. The initial storms will be relatively high based with
forecast hodographs favoring splitting supercells capable of
producing significant outflow gusts (80+ mph) and isolated very
large hail (2-3+ inch diameter). Storms are expected to evolve into
a cluster or two tonight while spreading east-southeastward toward
western MN with a continued threat for occasional severe outflow
gusts and large hail.

...Carolinas and vicinity this afternoon/evening...
A weak cold front will continue to drift southward across VA/KY
toward NC through the afternoon, in association with the southern
periphery of a midlevel trough moving over the Mid-Atlantic and
southern New England. The southern extent of ~30 kt midlevel flow
overlaps the baroclinic zone and northern extent of the unstable
warm sector. Though midlevel lapse rates are not steep per 12z
soundings, surface temperatures warming into the 90-95 F range with
dewpoints in the low-mid 70s will drive MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg
with negligible convective inhibition and steepening low-level lapse
rates. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely by early-mid
afternoon along the differential heating zone near the cold front,
as well as along a subtle surface trough across eastern NC.
Multicell clusters are the primary expected storm mode with the
potential to produce occasional wind damage with downbursts this
afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be a little stronger across
southeast VA/northeast NC where some storm organization will be
possible.

...Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern Gulf...
NHC has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern
Gulf, centered roughly 130 n mi west of Tampa as of 15z. Though
some outer eastern bands will affect the FL Gulf coast this
afternoon, it appears that enhancements to flow/shear are too
marginal to support any substantial threat of outer band
supercells/tornadoes along the FL Gulf coast through tonight.
Still, isolated strong outflow gusts will be possible with broken
thunderstorm bands this afternoon/evening across central/north FL
and south GA.

...AL area this afternoon...
Strong surface heating to the west and south of ongoing storm
clusters in northern and eastern AL will contribute to
destabilization and the potential for stronger storms within the
clusters that will spread south/southwestward through the afternoon.
Precipitation loading and steepening low-level lapse rates could
support isolated downbursts and wind damage with the strongest
storms.

..Thompson/Chalmers.. 07/19/2026


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SPC Jul 19, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH GEORGIA
INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon over
portions of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable
of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible late this afternoon
through the evening across parts of the Upper Midwest.

... Southeast ...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the
Gulf of St. Lawrence and the Northeast U.S. moving east towards the
western Atlantic. A seasonably strong cold front over the OH Valley
eastward into the northern Mid-Atlantic states, will push south
before weakening over VA. A very moist airmass evident in 12 UTC
area raobs (14-15 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios) will
heat/destabilize across VA into the southern Appalachians.
Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop by midday into the early
afternoon both over the higher terrain and near the front. Slightly
stronger westerly flow over VA into the northern half of NC will
favor eastward-moving clusters this afternoon. High PW and
steepened low-level lapse rates will likely favor water-loading
within the stronger downdrafts. Scattered 50-60 mph gusts capable
of wind damage will be the primary hazard. Farther southwest over
GA into AL, a couple of bands of storms may yield wind-damage
potential with the stronger downdrafts. Isolated severe gusts are
also possible across parts of the central FL Peninsula northward
into southern GA.

...Upper Midwest...
A mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over the central
Rockies as an upper speed max intensifies and overspreads MT
eastward into MN. An associated mid-level trough initially over
Alberta will pivot east-southeast into Manitoba and adjacent
portions of ND-MN. Southerly low-level flow will advect richer
moisture northward into the Dakotas/MN region during the day.
Models show a relatively narrow tongue of 60s to near 70 F dewpoints
to the east of lee trough. In between a southeastward-moving cool
front and the lee trough, deep boundary layer mixing is expected.
Models generally show 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE over the Dakotas by mid
afternoon beneath 70 to 90-kt westerly 200-mb flow. Widely
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Dakotas
by mid to late afternoon as convective inhibition erodes.
Elongated, straight hodographs and effective shear around 40 kt will
support an initial supercell mode. Very large hail (1 to 3.5 inches
in diameter) is possible with a few of these supercells. As
additional storms develop towards the early evening, convective
outflow and additional storm mergers may lead to upscale growth of a
severe-wind producing linear cluster (most probable over the eastern
ND into adjacent SD-MN). Peak gusts with this activity are forecast
in the 60-85 mph range. These storms will move east into parts of
the eastern Dakotas and western MN before eventually weakening
overnight.

..Smith/Broyles.. 07/19/2026


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SPC Jul 19, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH GEORGIA
INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds will be possible from
parts of north Georgia, across the Carolinas, and into southern
Virginia this afternoon. Additional severe thunderstorms capable of
damaging winds and large hail will be possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Dakotas and western Minnesota.

... Synopsis ...

The base-state mid-level pattern today will feature a western US
ridge and eastern US trough, with a weak closed low over the
northeast Gulf. Within this background flow field, a short-wave
trough will be exiting the Northeast US and a closed low across the
Canadian Prairies will crest the western ridge before digging
southeast late in the day toward the Upper Midwest.

At the surface, a large anticyclone will settle into the Great Lakes
region during the day. On the periphery of this anticyclone, a cold
front will be draped from coastal Virginia to the west-southwest,
before arcing northwest into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and then
into the Upper Midwest. This front will sag south across the eastern
US, while beginning to lift north and east across the Mississippi
Valley and Upper-Midwest. The front will act to delineate a very
warm/hot and moist airmass to the south and west from a cooler/dryer
airmass to the north and east.

... Georgia into southern Virginia and the greater Southeast ...

To the south of the advancing surface front, temperatures will warm
into the low-to-mid-90Fs from northern Georgia into southern
Virginia. At the same time, surface dewpoints of the upper-60Fs and
low-70Fs will be maintained. The result will be an strongly unstable
environment with HREF ensemble mean MUCAPE between 1500-2000 J/kg
across the region. Forecast soundings show precipitable water
greater than 1.75 inches across much of the area, with a band of
precipitable water in excess of 2 inches. This, coupled with steep
sub-cloud layer lapse rates (approaching 8 C/km) which will support
wind damage potential with any sustained thunderstorm updraft.

Surrounding this area, more scattered thunderstorm development is
expected within the moist and unstable environment. At this time, it
appears a corridor of higher likelihood for thunderstorm development
will extend from southeast Louisiana northeast toward northern
Georgia. This increased thunderstorm activity appears to be
associated with a band of modest convergence in the 850-700 millibar
layer to the north of a weak low across the northeast Gulf. Damaging
wind gusts will be possible with some of these storms.

Another potential area of damaging wind gusts will be across
north-central Florida into far south-central Georgia. Here, HREF
guidance shows an east-northeast expanding band of thunderstorms
emanating from the low over the northeast Gulf.

... Dakotas into western Montana ...

Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper-90Fs to the
low-100Fs during the afternoon to the east of a low-level trough
axis developing in the lee of the Rockies in the northern High
Plains. To the east of this trough axis, HREF ensemble mean
dewpoints in the mid-to-upper-60Fs will combine with those hot
afternoon temperatures to support a very unstable environment, with
HREF ensemble mean MUCAPE values between 1500-2000 J/kg across the
Dakotas and individual members considerably higher (3000-4000 J/kg).

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Dakotas
by mid afternoon as convective temperatures are approached and
modest height falls overspread the area. Long, straight hodographs
and effective-layer shear around 40-knots will support supercellular
structures, including storm splits, early in the thunderstorm
convective life cycle. Large hail, potentially in excess of 2
inches, will be possible with these initial storms. However, dry
sub-cloud layers and low-level lapse rates around 9 C/km will
support strong convective outflows that will tend to favor upscale
growth, especially in regions where storm splits interact with one
another. One or more convective clusters will move east-southeast
during the late afternoon and evening continuing the threat for
damaging winds, before eventually weakening overnight.

..Marsh/Weinman.. 07/19/2026


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SPC Jul 19, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0809 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT CATEGORICAL LINES

...SUMMARY...
Storms capable of wind damage may continue for another hour or so
across central Pennsylvania before dissipating. Additional
strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail
will be likely across portions western Montana

... 01Z Update ...

Overall thunderstorm intensity continues to wane across much of the
northeast with the loss of daytime heating and multiple rounds of
thunderstorms acting to stabilize the airmass. However, a few
damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible from far eastern
Ohio into southern New England for perhaps another hour or two. The
most likely area for wind damage is across central Pennsylvania
where the most intense thunderstorms are currently found. These
storms should weaken further in the next couple of hours, bringing
an end to the organized severe threat.

Across western Montana, sufficient buoyancy is in place to support
ongoing convection, some of which has produced severe wind gusts
this afternoon. Steep lapse rates coupled with gradually
strengthening mid-level flow will support an ongoing severe threat,
including a couple of outflow-driven convective clusters. Please see
MCD #1656 for more details.

..Marsh.. 07/19/2026


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