SPC Oct 10, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a tornado threat will be possible
today from the eastern Florida Panhandle northeastward into the
Carolinas. A few severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the
Desert Southwest.

...Eastern Florida Panhandle/Georgia/Carolinas...
The remnants of Isaias are forecast to move northward into the
Tennessee Valley today. The eastern extent of the system will move
north-northeastward across Georgia and South Carolina today, where
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop as surface
temperatures warm. From eastern Georgia into South Carolina, surface
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F will contribute to moderate
instability, with MLCAPE likely peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg
range. RAP forecast soundings along and near the axis of instability
this afternoon have veering winds with height below 850 mb and 30 to
40 knot of flow in the low to mid-levels. 0-3 km storm-relative
helicity is forecast to peak near 225 m2/s2. This will support a
tornado threat with supercells that remain semi-discrete. The
tornado threat is expected to persist into the evening as the
eastern periphery of Isaias moves into the Carolinas.

...Western and Southern Arizona/Southeast California...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward toward Baja
California today, with the system interacting with Tropical Storm
Rachel. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture advection will
increase surface dewpoints into the 60s F over much of western and
southern Arizona by this evening. In response, MLCAPE is forecast to
increase to near 1000 J/kg over parts of southwest Arizona. This
combined with large-scale ascent ahead of the system and lift
associated with a low-level jet will provide support for scattered
thunderstorm development. In addition, the exit region of a
mid-level jet is forecast to overspread southwest Arizona during the
evening. This feature will create moderate to strong deep-layer
shear, which will be sufficient for supercells. If a supercell can
develop, then isolated severe wind gusts would be possible.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/10/2026


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SPC Oct 10, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with Hurricane Isaias will move inland this
evening into the overnight. Rotating cells could be associated with
a tornado threat, mainly from the Florida Panhandle northward into
southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia.

...DISCUSSION...
The center of Hurricane Isaias is currently near the Florida coast.
The primary band of rainfall is north of the Isaias' center over the
western Florida Panhandle. A second rainband extends from the
eastern Florida Panhandle southward along the coast of the
northwestern Florida Peninsula. Thunderstorms will continue to form
within these rainbands and move northward over land this evening.
The latest WSR-88D VWPs in the Florida Panhandle have strong
low-level shear profiles with large looped hodographs. This will
support the development of rotating storms with tornado potential,
mainly with cells that remain semi-discrete. The tornado threat is
expected to continue through this evening into overnight period,
with the threat gradually moving northward into southeast Alabama
and southwestern Georgia.

..Broyles.. 10/10/2026


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SPC Oct 9, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
With the approach of Hurricane Isaias, tornado potential will
continue increasing through the remainder of the afternoon and
continue tonight, especially across the Florida Panhandle into
southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made
with this update. For details on the near-term severe risk, see MCD
#2349 and Tornado Watch #677.

..Weinman.. 10/09/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026/

...Florida Panhandle into northern Florida/southern Alabama/southern
Georgia...
Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast
track/intensity details regarding Hurricane Isaias. The latest
discussion indicates that Isaias has reached major hurricane status
as it moves north-northeastward toward the western Florida
Panhandle/far southern Alabama.

As Isaias approaches the coast, rainbands on its eastern periphery
will spread northward toward the Big Bend of the Florida Panhandle,
far southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia this afternoon
into tonight. Throughout the day, a more unstable airmass over the
eastern Gulf will advance northward, resulting in destabilization
over the coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle. The current VAD
profile at KTLH is already supportive of tornado potential (i.e.,
0-1 SRH over 250 m2/s2), and low-level winds and SRH will strengthen
significantly this afternoon and evening. Once the mid 70s F
dewpoints come onshore, persistent, deeper updrafts will be possible
with the propensity to rotate and have the potential to produce
tornadoes, particularly across the Florida Panhandle into
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

Additionally, some enhancement to the wind field, potentially
including a convective influence, may occur across southern Alabama
in vicinity of the evolving inverted surface trough late this
afternoon into tonight.


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SPC Oct 9, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
With the approach of Hurricane Isaias, tornado potential will
steadily increase this afternoon and continue tonight, especially
across the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest
Georgia.

...Northern Florida/southern Alabama/southern Georgia...
Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast
track/intensity details regarding Hurricane Isaias. Such forecasts
call for additional strengthening of Isaias today as it continues
generally north-northeastward toward the Florida Panhandle/far
southern Alabama.

As this scenario unfolds, eastern-peripheral rainbands will spread
northward, potentially as far east as the near-coastal western
Peninsula today, and more so toward the Florida coastal bend and
eventually broader parts of the Florida Panhandle, far southern
Alabama and southern Georgia by late today into tonight. This will
occur as inland continental trajectories are displaced/overcome by a
northward-advancing Isaias and eastward-extending maritime warm
front. Destabilization will tend to be maximized in coastal areas on
its eastern periphery, all while low-level winds/SRH significantly
strengthen over time. Rotating storms will have the potential to
produce tornadoes, particularly across the Florida Panhandle/nearby
northern Florida into southeast Alabama and far southern Georgia.

Additionally, some enhancement to the wind field, potentially
including a convective influence, may occur across southern Alabama
in vicinity of the evolving inverted surface trough late this
afternoon into tonight.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 10/09/2026


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