SPC Oct 3, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential should remain low through the night.

... 01 UTC Update ...

Showers and the occasional thunderstorm will continue along and
southeast of a slow moving frontal zone draped from the southern
Plains northeast toward the Mid-Atlantic. Instability is rather
limited to the south of this front owing to poor lapse-rates, and
vertical shear is weak. Thus, while the occasional thunderstorm may
occur, the severe potential is low.

Elsewhere, a couple of lightning strikes may occur toward sunrise
across the north-central US. Here, a short-wave trough moving
through the stronger mid-level flow will overhead, bringing with it
modest large-scale ascent. Temperatures in the 40Fs to low 50Fs with
dewpoints in the 40Fs should limit instability and the overall
potential for more widespread thunderstorm coverage.

..Marsh.. 10/03/2026


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SPC Oct 2, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential should remain low through tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the previous outlook. See the discussion
below for more details.

..Karstens/Thornton.. 10/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough will continue progressing eastward across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today, as a surface cold front advances
east-southeastward over these regions and the Southeast/southern
Plains through the period. 12Z observed soundings ahead of the front
from the Mid-Atlantic to Southeast show very poor lapse rates aloft
(i.e., 700-500 mb lapse rates of 4-5.5 C/km), which will likely
limit the development of any more than weak instability and hinder
overall updraft strength. While locally gusty winds could still
occur with low-topped showers/thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic
given the presence of modestly enhanced low/mid-level
west-southwesterly flow, the potential for organized clusters
capable of producing severe/damaging winds still appears low. Weaker
flow across the TN Valley and central Gulf Coast states will limit
updraft organization, but marginally greater instability should
support isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage through the
afternoon along/ahead of the cold front.


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SPC Oct 2, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential should remain low through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough will continue progressing eastward across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today, as a surface cold front advances
east-southeastward over these regions and the Southeast/southern
Plains through the period. 12Z observed soundings ahead of the front
from the Mid-Atlantic to Southeast show very poor lapse rates aloft
(i.e., 700-500 mb lapse rates of 4-5.5 C/km), which will likely
limit the development of any more than weak instability and hinder
overall updraft strength. While locally gusty winds could still
occur with low-topped showers/thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic
given the presence of modestly enhanced low/mid-level
west-southwesterly flow, the potential for organized clusters
capable of producing severe/damaging winds still appears low. Weaker
flow across the TN Valley and central Gulf Coast states will limit
updraft organization, but marginally greater instability should
support isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage through the
afternoon along/ahead of the cold front.

..Gleason/Lyons.. 10/02/2026


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SPC Oct 2, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is low today and tonight.

...Mid-Atlantic States/Cumberland Plateau...
A progressive stream of westerlies will continue to reside over the
northern third of the CONUS through tonight. An extensive
northeast/southwest-oriented cold front will continue
east-southeastward, reaching the coastal Northeast/Mid-Atlantic by
this evening, while otherwise crossing the Tennessee Valley and
lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will
accompany the front, while also being common across coastal areas of
the Gulf Coast and Southeast.

As the cold front approaches the coastal Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva later
this evening, semi-strong wind profiles (35+ kt effective shear)
will exist regionally, and to a lesser extent southwestward toward
the Appalachians and Cumberland Plateau. A couple of stronger storms
with gusty winds could materialize this afternoon near/ahead of the
front in these regions provided sufficient insolation/modest
destabilization. However, moist-profile/subsidence-related poor
lapse rates aloft should preclude organized severe storms.

..Guyer/Dean.. 10/02/2026


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