SPC Jun 10, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms with potential for large
hail in excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes and
damaging winds with gusts over 75 mph are expected this afternoon
and evening across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and
Midwest.

...Upper Mississippi Valley/Midwest...
At mid-levels, a trough will move eastward into the central and
northern Plains today, as the exit region of a jet streak
overspreads the upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest. At the
surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the northern
Plains with a warm front moving into the western Great Lakes.
Between these two fronts, a very moist airmass will be in place with
surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F. Early in the day, a
line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop in western Iowa
near the western edge of the moist airmass. A potential for severe
wind gusts will be possible with this line. Eastward across the
moist sector, moderate to strong instability is expected to develop
by midday as surface temperatures warm. This will help the line to
grow upscale, potentially into a linear MCS, as it moves across
southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois early this afternoon.
Severe wind gusts and QLCS tornadoes will be possible along the
stronger parts of this line segment.

In the wake of the initial line segment, instability is expected to
increase as moisture advection and surface heating take place. An
instability axis is forecast to develop in the afternoon from
eastern Missouri northward into eastern Iowa, where MLCAPE should
increase into the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range. Thunderstorm development
will be likely during the mid to late afternoon along a zone of
low-level convergence from northern Missouri into central and
eastern Iowa. Additional storms are expected to form further north
into parts of far eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. RAP
forecast soundings in the late afternoon from eastern Iowa into
southwest Wisconsin have curved hodographs, with 0-6 km shear near
40 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 225 m2/s2. This
environment will support supercells with tornado potential. A strong
tornado or two will be possible as supercells move eastward in a
strengthening low-level jet during the late afternoon and early
evening. Large hail and wind damage will also be possible with
supercells. From this cluster, a second severe line segment with
damaging wind gusts is expected to develop. This line will likely
impact parts of northeast Missouri and north-central Illinois.

Further southwest across parts of northwest/north-central Missouri
and northeast Kansas, scattered thunderstorm development is expected
during the late afternoon and early evening. These storms will be
located near an axis of strong instability, along which RAP
forecasts suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in around 40 knots. In
addition 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7.5 C/km.
The environment should support large hail and severe wind gusts.

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians...
A moist and unstable airmass will be in place today across much of
the region, with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F.
Although large-scale ascent will be weak, isolated thunderstorms
appear likely to develop in areas where low-level convergence
becomes maximized. Forecast soundings across the Ohio Valley show
steep low-level lapse rates during the afternoon and have enough
deep-layer shear for a localized severe threat. A few of the
stronger cells could produce isolated severe gust and hail.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 06/10/2026


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SPC Jun 10, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms with a potential for 60-80 mph winds
with locally higher gusts, along with tornadoes (some potentially
strong), and large to very large hail are expected across the
northern and central Plains this evening into tonight.

...Central and Northern Plains...
On water vapor imagery, a mid-level shortwave trough appears to be
located from eastern Montana southeastward into western South Dakota
and west-central Nebraska. At the surface, a 996 mb low is currently
located in northwestern North Dakota with a cold front extending
southward from the low. A dryline is evident from central South
Dakota into western Nebraska. To the east of the front and dryline,
a moist airmass is in place with surface dewpoints in the mid to
upper 60s F, which is contributing to moderate to strong
instability. Thunderstorms are currently developing along the entire
length of the front and dryline. Storms that remain discrete or
semi-discrete over the next couple of hours could be supercells,
with a potential to produce tornadoes and large to very large hail.
A couple of strong tornadoes may occur with supercells that are
intense. As convective coverage rapidly increases over the next
couple of hours, a transition to linear mode is expected with a
squall line forming and moving eastward across the remainder of the
Dakotas this evening.

Along and near the instability axis, the RAP has 0-3 km lapse rates
in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. In addition, 0-6 km shear near this axis
is around 45 knots, as is evident on the Bismarck and Aberdeen
WSR-88D VWPs. This environment will be very favorable for severe
wind gusts, and some gusts could exceed 80 mph along the more
intense parts of the line. While a tornado threat will exist with
supercells early on, a continued tornado threat is expected as the
squall line develops with embedded rotating cells. The potential for
severe wind gusts and tornadoes will continue into the late evening
and overnight period as the line moves eastward into the upper
Mississippi Valley.

Further south into the central Plains, the RAP has a pocket of
strong instability analyzed over east-central Nebraska, where the
RAP shows MLCAPE in the 4500 to 5500 J/kg range. Severe
thunderstorms have developed to the west and south of this
instability maximum. The RAP also has a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet
max in far northern Kansas. As this feature strengthens and moves
northeastward into eastern Nebraska, low-level shear will become
increasingly favorable for tornadoes. Supercells that can become
robust may be able to produce a strong tornado or two.

Southward into central Kansas, strong instability is analyzed by the
RAP over much of central and northeastern Kansas, where MLCAPE is
estimated to be from 3000 to 4500 J/kg. In addition, moderate
deep-layer shear is present and low to mid-level lapse rates are
steep. This will support a threat for large hail and severe wind
gusts this evening with the stronger supercells and short line
segments.

...Ohio Valley...
A moist and unstable airmass is currently located across much of the
Ohio Valley. An axis of instability is analyzed from southern
Illinois east-northeastward across southern Indiana and northwest
Ohio. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing in west-central Indiana
just to the west of the instability axis. Ahead of the storms,
low-level lapse rates are steep. This will contribute to a potential
for isolated severe gusts over the next hour or two.

..Broyles.. 06/10/2026


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SPC Jun 9, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms with a potential for 60-80 mph winds
with locally higher gusts, along with tornadoes (some potentially
strong), and large to very large hail are expected across the
northern and central Plains this afternoon and tonight. Severe wind
gusts and large hail will also be possible from north-central and
west-central Kansas southwestward into the Texas Panhandle.

...Central and Northern Plains...
Current satellite imagery shows negatively tilted upper troughing
from the Pacific Northwest into the central Rockies, with an
embedded shortwave trough emerging over the northern/central High
Plains. This shortwave is forecast to continue northeastward today,
with associated height falls spreading from the northern/central
High Plains into the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest.

Recent surface analysis shows a moist airmass across the Plains,
although notable airmass modification has occurred across KS and
western MO from an overnight MCS. Outflow associated with this MCS
currently arcs from south-central KS through extreme northeast OK
and southwest MO into south-central MO. Convective outflow also
exists over south-central NE. These features add to an already
complex surface pattern which features several lows along a wavy
surface trough from north-central MO into southeast CO. A stationary
boundary also extends northeastward from the low over southeast MT
through south/eastern ND and far northwest MN.

General expectation is for the north/central High Plains to eject
over the northern Plains, with the associated large-scale ascent and
convergence along the cold front contributing to thunderstorms
across a large portion of the northern and central Plains. Very
strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) will be in place across
much of this region, with potential pockets of extreme buoyancy
(i.e. MLCAPE over 4000 J/kg) from eastern SD through eastern
NE/extreme western IA. Thunderstorms are expected to form near the
front/dryline by mid/late afternoon, along the western edge of the
greater buoyancy from the west-central Dakotas southward into
western Nebraska. High LCLs and more southerly deep-layer shear will
favor a linear mode. These linear storms will move eastward into a
more moist and unstable airmass, while shear also strengthens and
becomes more southwesterly, likely resulting in a one or more
fast-moving convective lines. Primary hazard within these lines will
be significant wind gusts (75+ mph), although increasing low-level
southerly/southeasterly flow with eastern extent could also support
embedded tornadoes. Hail is also possible within the stronger
updrafts, particularly earlier in the convective cycle.

A lower confidence, but still noteworthy, tornado risk will be
associated with any more discrete development that occurs within the
warm sector ahead of any convective lines. Primary forecast
uncertainty results from the inherent limited predictability of the
more mesoscale forcing mechanisms responsible for convective
initiation east of the greater large-scale ascent. Environmental
conditions support supercells capable of all hazards, including
strong tornadoes, with any mature convection. Two areas that appear
to have a relatively higher potential for discrete storms are
east-central into northeast ND, and eastern NE into southeast SD and
western IA/southwest MN. Stronger low-level flow will persist across
these areas, resulting in greater warm-air advection with perhaps
the realization of a discrete storm or two.

...Western and central Kansas and Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...
Persistent southwesterly flow aloft atop a diurnally destabilizing
airmass is expected to support high-based thunderstorms across
southeast CO/northeast NM this afternoon. These storms are then
expected to persist downstream into the more unstable airmass across
southwest KS, the OK Panhandle, and northern TX Panhandle. Large
hail is possible early in the convective cycle but upscale growth
into a more linear bowing segment is anticipated. Given the high
cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates, strong to severe gusts
are also possible, including the possibility for a few gusts over 75
mph.

...Middle Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley...
Airmass destabilization is anticipated this afternoon within the
very moist airmass in place over the region. Thunderstorm
development is expected across the region as a weak MCV, currently
over central MO, tracks southeastward into the region. Shear will be
modest, likely limiting storm organization, but strong buoyancy will
support robust updrafts and the potential for damaging gusts. Given
multiple surface boundaries and the presence of an MCV, a
low-probability tornado risk exists as well.

..Mosier/Squitieri.. 06/09/2026


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SPC Jun 9, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms with a potential for 60-80 mph winds
with locally higher gusts, along with tornadoes (some potentially
strong), and large to very large hail are expected across the
northern and central Plains this afternoon and tonight. Severe wind
gusts and large hail will also be possible from north-central and
west-central Kansas southwestward into the Texas Panhandle.

...Central and Northern Plains...
A prominent upper trough will shift east-northeastward from the
northern Rockies toward the northern High Plains and Canadian
Prairies through tonight, with height falls overspreading much of
the northern/central Plains toward the Upper Midwest. This will be
atop a moist airmass near/east of a dryline/front located from far
western North Dakota southward into western Nebraska. Warm sector
surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F.

Thunderstorms are expected to form near the front/dryline by
mid/late afternoon, initially spanning the west-central Dakotas
southward into western Nebraska. Some semi-discrete storms including
supercells may also form farther east within the warm sector,
enhanced as the mid-level jet phases with a significantly
strengthening low-level jet primarily focused across eastern North
Dakota/northeast South Dakota. Aside from large hail, a few
tornadoes are expected, some of which could be strong especially
during the early/mid-afternoon hours. Over time and farther west,
strong low-level convergence near the instability axis will result
in a relatively rapid transition to linear mode with multiple linear
clusters/possible MCS expected to develop by evening. The severe MCS
will move eastward across the central and eastern Dakotas, with
damaging wind and some hail/tornado potential continuing eastward
tonight toward Minnesota/part of Iowa.

Aside from North Dakota/northern South Dakota and northwest
Minnesota, another supercell/tornado-favorable zone could
materialize by evening farther southeast from southeast South Dakota
into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa/southwest Minnesota.
Mid-level temperatures will be a bit warmer and storm
coverage/certainty will likely be lesser across this region.
However, a rather favorable and potentially volatile environment
will exist as a secondary low-level jet branch increases and
interfaces with an effective warm frontal zone this evening, with
initial intense supercells plausible if/where storms develop.

...Western and central Kansas and Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...
Higher-based storms are expected to develop regionally by late
afternoon/early evening with moderate buoyancy and very steep lapse
rates favorable for large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts, some
of which could be significant.

...Middle Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley...
As a byproduct of several decayed MCS, multiple MCVs will are
expected to drift east-southeastward across the region today and
interface with a moist/unstable environment influenced by outflow
and differential heating. A rejuvenated round of severe storms is
expected by mid/late afternoon, and some supercells are plausible if
MCV-related mid-level flow diurnally persists. Multicells capable of
damaging winds are the most probable hazard, but some
supercell-related tornado potential may also exist.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 06/09/2026


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