SPC Jul 23, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and
large hail are possible over portions of the central and southern
High Plains this afternoon and evening. More isolated occurrences
of damaging wind are possible from the middle Texas coast into Deep
South Texas, the eastern Carolinas, and parts of the Columbia Basin
into the northern Intermountain region.

...Central/southern High Plains including western Kansas...
Surface analysis late this morning places a front draped from far
southwest KS extending into eastern CO. The front and a dryline
farther south will focus thunderstorm development later this
afternoon as strong heating results in appreciable boundary layer
destabilization. Water-vapor imagery shows an impulse over central
CO moving slowly east to the north of a mid-level anticyclone
centered over northwest TX. This upper disturbance and associated
forcing for ascent coupled with weakening convective inhibition will
lead to scattered storms developing by late afternoon. Models
feature a vertically veering wind profile with 30-35 kt of
deep-layer shear over western KS near the front, which will be
sufficient for at least episodic supercell structures with a risk
for large hail. Some upscale growth into a small cluster may occur
during the evening as a southerly LLJ intensifies. Scattered severe
gusts will be possible with this activity. Farther west and south
along the dryline, a deeply mixed boundary layer and weaker shear
will favor an isolated risk for severe gusts with the stronger
downdrafts.

...Middle Texas Coast to Deep South Texas...
As Bertha continues westward over the northwest Gulf, a belt of
enhanced mid-level flow will precede Bertha and spread atop a hot
and moist boundary layer inland, with moderate instability
developing by afternoon along the middle Texas coast. Ample
deep-layer shear within the southwest quadrant of the parent system
may support some cold pool organization. Steepened low-level lapse
rates and high PW may yield a localized risk for severe gusts with
scattered storms that develop near the coast and move inland over
the coastal plain through the evening.

...Columbia Basin/northern Intermountain West...
Weak height falls are expected while mid/upper-level winds
strengthen regionally ahead of an upper low off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest. Daytime heating along favored terrain, in
conjunction with the glancing influence of the passing disturbance,
will aid in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by
mid-afternoon within a moderately unstable and steep lapse rate
environment. The strengthening upper-level winds will enhance
vertical shear, supporting the potential for some storm organization
with an associated risk for locally damaging wind gusts and
marginally severe hail.

...Eastern Carolinas...
Midday visible-satellite imagery shows scattered
showers/thunderstorms along a west-east oriented frontal zone over
southern NC. Cloud breaks south of convective cloud debris will
promote additional heating near the coast and moderate
destabilization by mid afternoon. A few of the stronger storms that
develop this afternoon into the early evening will probably pose a
localized risk for damaging gusts.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 07/23/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TTgmxx

SPC Jul 23, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and
large hail are possible over portions of the central and southern
High Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. More isolated
occurrences of damaging wind are possible from the middle Texas
coast into Deep South Texas, the eastern Carolinas, and parts of the
Columbia Basin into the northern Rockies.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough over the central Rockies late this evening is
forecast to progress slowly into the central High Plains by Thursday
afternoon, within the northeast periphery of a strengthening
mid/upper-level high over the southern Rockies. Downstream from
those developments, a short-wave trough will translate through New
England with a trailing vorticity ribbon and associated belt of
enhanced mid-level flow across the southern Mid-Atlantic. Elsewhere,
Tropical Storm Bertha is forecast to advance from just off the
southwest LA coast to the middle TX coast by Thursday evening.

At the surface, a stationary front currently extending from the CO
Front Range through the OK and TX Panhandles into the Red River
Valley is forecast to drift north through portions of western KS on
Thursday immediately ahead of a thermal low/lee cyclone over
southeast CO and southwest KS. A dryline will extend south from the
surface low-front triple point into the central or eastern OK and TX
Panhandles by mid- to late afternoon.

...Central and southern High Plains...

Strong boundary-layer heating is forecast in the vicinity of the
surface front and dryline Thursday afternoon with temperatures in
the mid 90s to around 105. The hot temperatures will combine with
dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s and modestly steep mid-level
lapse rates to yield a narrow axis of moderate instability with
MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent preceding the
short-wave trough is expected to contribute to isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms by mid afternoon from the vicinity of the
thermal low in southeast CO to along the front and dryline from
northeast CO into the OK and TX Panhandles.

Forecast soundings along the front indicate a vertically veering
wind profile with 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear, which will be
sufficient for at least episodic supercell structures with a risk
for large hail. In contrast, the storms forming in the hot, deeply
mixed air mass west of the boundary are more likely to produce
sporadic severe wind gusts. A corridor of potentially more
concentrated severe wind gusts may materialize across portions of
southwest KS by evening, where a number of the 00z CAMs indicate the
evolution of an organized cold pool.

...Middle Texas Coast to Deep South Texas...

A channel of enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to precede Bertha
atop a hot and moist boundary layer, with moderate instability
developing by afternoon along the middle TX coast. Similar to
Wednesday, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected during the
afternoon within an environment characterized by 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PW content.
As such, the potential will exist for locally damaging downburst
winds as storms spread southwest along the coast into Deep South TX
during the afternoon and evening hours.

...Columbia Basin into northern Rockies...

Mid/upper-level winds are forecast to strengthen across the area on
Thursday in tandem with a subtle disturbance moving through portions
of OR and WA. Daytime heating along favored terrain in conjunction
with the glancing influence of the passing disturbance will aid in
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by mid afternoon within a
moderately unstable and steep lapse rate environment. The
strengthening upper-level winds will enhance vertical shear,
supporting the potential for some storm organization with an
associated risk for locally damaging wind gusts and marginally
severe hail.

...Eastern Carolinas...

Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Thursday along a
west-to-east-oriented front in NC. Breaks in the clouds south of the
early-day storms will combine with a moist boundary layer to yield
an axis of moderate instability by afternoon across portions of
southeast NC into far eastern SC. A corridor of more concentrated
thunderstorm development is possible in that area, near the
intersection of the outflow from the morning storms with the
sea-breeze boundary. Modest deep-layer shear will coincide with
steepening low-level lapse rates and high PW content to yield
locally intense wet microbursts capable of damaging winds.

..Mead/Weinman.. 07/23/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TTgCdc

SPC Jul 22, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND...SOUTHEAST TEXAS...THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL OREGON....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered storms remain possible across the
Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic, as well as New England this
afternoon and early evening, with damaging winds as the primary
concern. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts are also possible in
the central High Plains, southeast Texas and central Oregon, where
isolated large hail will also be possible.

...20z Update New England...
A broken band of strong to occasionally severe convection remains
ongoing ahead of a progressive cold front over northern and eastern
New England this afternoon. Weak buoyancy, but fairly strong
deep-layer shear (35-45 kt) should support isolated hail, and
damaging winds with stronger clusters or supercell structures this
afternoon. A brief tornado also remains possible across northern ME
where low-level shear is locally stronger. The primary change this
outlook cycle was to lower overall severe probabilities and remove
them behind the front where the air mass has stabilized.

...Mid Atlantic and Carolinas...
Farther south, the cold front has become increasingly zonally
oriented and slowed as the upper trough has lifted away to the
northeast. A warm and very moist environment remains in place across
southeastern VA into northern NC. However, poor mid-level lapse
rates and decreasing vertical shear have limited convective
organization and intensity. Some renewed intensity is possible along
the convectively modified boundary/differential heating axis along
the NC/VA border this afternoon and evening. However, the severe
threat (predominately damaging gusts) is expected to remain isolated
into this evening. Severe probabilities have been lowered and
adjusted to better match the main focal area for severe storms near
the VA/NC border through this evening.

Elsewhere, isolated severe gusts/hail remain possible over parts of
the central High Plains and the southeast TX. Isolated hail is also
possible over parts of central OR. Scattered storms are expected
late this afternoon through the evening. No changes were made to
theses areas, see the previous discussion for more information.

..Lyons.. 07/22/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026/

...Northern New England this afternoon...
Per water vapor imagery and morning upper air observations, a
pronounced midlevel trough will progress east-northeastward from
PA/NY/Saint Lawrence Valley toward New England through this
afternoon. An associated surface cold front will likewise move
eastward and provide a focus for thunderstorm development by early
afternoon into Maine. A few cloud breaks developing from
west-to-east through the afternoon will allow surface temperatures
to warm into the 70s with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s,
resulting in MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Deep-layer,
south-southwesterly shear will be sufficient for a mix of clusters
and supercells with a primary threat for occasional wind damage.

...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening...
A pre-frontal band of convection is ongoing across southern VA, with
a narrow zone of stronger surface heating/destabilization to the
north of the thicker clouds from northern VA into MD/DE in advance
of a cold front moving across PA. The southern fringe of the
stronger (35-50 kt) midlevel flow extends to near the VA/NC border
on the south side of the thicker cloud band. The ongoing convection
is likely persist through the afternoon while spreading slowly
southward. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, but deep-layer
vertical shear will be sufficient for embedded/organized storms with
occasional wind damage. Low-level shear will be marginally
favorable for rotating storms and perhaps an isolated tornado.

...Southeast TX late this afternoon through late evening...
Strong surface heating is underway with a general confluence zone
near the TX/LA border well to the west of highly-sheared Tropical
Storm Bertha. As Bertha continues westward, this confluence zone
should support thunderstorm development into southeast TX late this
afternoon. Steering flow from the northeast at ~35 kt will favor
storm clusters moving southwestward into a hot, deeply mixed
boundary layer where buoyancy will be sufficient to maintain the
storm clusters into late evening. A few strong-severe outflow gusts
will be the main threats.

...Northeast CO and vicinity this afternoon/evening...
Low-level upslope flow on the cool side of a surface front, combined
with weak perturbations rotating around the northwest periphery of
the southern Plains midlevel high, will support afternoon
thunderstorm development over the foothills. The storms will spread
east-southeastward onto the plains, with a tendency for clustering
with the potential for isolated severe outflow gusts.

...OR this afternoon/evening...
Along the northwest edge of the monsoonal moisture plume, a midlevel
shortwave trough will move northward from northern CA into OR. Weak
forcing for ascent combined with daytime heating over the higher
terrain will support scattered thunderstorms later this
afternoon/evening from the Cascades into central OR. An environment
with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates and
effective bulk shear near 25 kt will support isolated strong outflow
gusts and marginally severe hail.


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TTg4Zt

SPC Jul 22, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR MAINE AND THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms are expected across the Carolinas and southern
Mid-Atlantic, as well as New England this afternoon and early
evening, with damaging winds as the primary concern. Isolated strong
to severe wind gusts are also possible in the central High Plains,
southeast Texas and central Oregon, where isolated large hail will
also be possible.

...Northern New England this afternoon...
Per water vapor imagery and morning upper air observations, a
pronounced midlevel trough will progress east-northeastward from
PA/NY/Saint Lawrence Valley toward New England through this
afternoon. An associated surface cold front will likewise move
eastward and provide a focus for thunderstorm development by early
afternoon into Maine. A few cloud breaks developing from
west-to-east through the afternoon will allow surface temperatures
to warm into the 70s with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s,
resulting in MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Deep-layer,
south-southwesterly shear will be sufficient for a mix of clusters
and supercells with a primary threat for occasional wind damage.

...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening...
A pre-frontal band of convection is ongoing across southern VA, with
a narrow zone of stronger surface heating/destabilization to the
north of the thicker clouds from northern VA into MD/DE in advance
of a cold front moving across PA. The southern fringe of the
stronger (35-50 kt) midlevel flow extends to near the VA/NC border
on the south side of the thicker cloud band. The ongoing convection
is likely persist through the afternoon while spreading slowly
southward. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, but deep-layer
vertical shear will be sufficient for embedded/organized storms with
occasional wind damage. Low-level shear will be marginally
favorable for rotating storms and perhaps an isolated tornado.

...Southeast TX late this afternoon through late evening...
Strong surface heating is underway with a general confluence zone
near the TX/LA border well to the west of highly-sheared Tropical
Storm Bertha. As Bertha continues westward, this confluence zone
should support thunderstorm development into southeast TX late this
afternoon. Steering flow from the northeast at ~35 kt will favor
storm clusters moving southwestward into a hot, deeply mixed
boundary layer where buoyancy will be sufficient to maintain the
storm clusters into late evening. A few strong-severe outflow gusts
will be the main threats.

...Northeast CO and vicinity this afternoon/evening...
Low-level upslope flow on the cool side of a surface front, combined
with weak perturbations rotating around the northwest periphery of
the southern Plains midlevel high, will support afternoon
thunderstorm development over the foothills. The storms will spread
east-southeastward onto the plains, with a tendency for clustering
with the potential for isolated severe outflow gusts.

...OR this afternoon/evening...
Along the northwest edge of the monsoonal moisture plume, a midlevel
shortwave trough will move northward from northern CA into OR. Weak
forcing for ascent combined with daytime heating over the higher
terrain will support scattered thunderstorms later this
afternoon/evening from the Cascades into central OR. An environment
with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates and
effective bulk shear near 25 kt will support isolated strong outflow
gusts and marginally severe hail.

..Thompson/Chalmers.. 07/22/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TTfvdd