Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through
tonight.
...20z Update...
Minor changes were made to trim thunder behind ongoing convection
and the cold front over the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Isolated
stronger storms remain possible and across portions of the central
Plains later this evening. Intensifying warm air advection could
support a few stronger storms with sporadic sub-severe hail as the
primary risk across portions of KS and southern NE tonight. However,
the lack of stronger upper-level forcing should preclude broader
severe potential.
..Lyons.. 10/29/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026/
...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning indicates a progressive,
low-amplitude flow pattern over the contiguous U.S. A cold front
will push eastward across the Great Lakes with the western portion
of the front stalling over the central Great Plains and slowly
advancing northward late tonight.
A few afternoon thunderstorms are expected along the front over
parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest regions, but weak CAPE and
limited moisture should preclude any severe threat. Farther
southwest, a storm or two may develop near the front in the vicinity
of southern KS. The weakly forced setup will likely limit storm
coverage. Although a strong storm cannot be ruled out, will forego
introducing hail probabilities this outlook update. Later tonight,
weak warm advection will favor elevated buoyancy and the development
of scattered thunderstorms over northeast KS into the adjacent parts
of southeast NE/western IA and northwest MO.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TW6TKW
