SPC Oct 8, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND UPPER MIDWEST/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Localized severe thunderstorms may occur across the middle Florida
Peninsula today and/or across parts of the Upper Midwest and middle
Missouri Valley tonight.

...Florida Peninsula...
A semi-persistent general pattern continues with storms focusing
along a convectively reinforced front from the eastern Gulf across
the middle part of the Peninsula. While not a high-confidence
scenario, a few subtleties may imply a bit more near-shore supercell
and waterspout/brief tornado potential as compared to yesterday.

The latest WSR-88D VWP data from KTBW samples weak
lower-tropospheric winds but with moderate directional turning and a
speed increase above 3km AGL, netting around 25-30 kt effective
shear. This is consistent with a modest 00z-to-12z increase in winds
aloft noted in Tampa Bay observed soundings, with a mid-level
cooling trend also noted. Winds aloft may further trend a bit upward
this afternoon per various guidance, potentially supporting a few
organized/sustained storms capable of at least weak/transient
rotation, especially in vicinity of the surface front. It also
appears that clouds are not quite as prevalent early today within
the nearby warm sector inland, which could modestly boost parcel
accelerations within a very moist environment, characterized by
73-75F surface dewpoints. The overall scenario could seemingly
support some potential for near-shore waterspouts or possibly even a
brief tornado inland near the front.

...Iowa/middle Missouri Valley tonight...
Isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms should develop
tonight as warm advection and isentropic ascent increase to the
northeast of a northeastward-advancing warm front. Source region
moisture will be modest, but sufficient mid-level moistening will
support thunderstorm potential on the edge of the Great Plains
elevated mixed layer. While some elevated moisture/buoyancy guidance
depictions may be a bit too aggressive (such as the NAM), a general
increase in guidance trends lends credence to the possibility that
750-1250 J/kg MUCAPE may materialize. With effective shear in the
cloud-bearing layer expected to increase to 40+ kt, the possibility
exists for a few elevated supercells late this evening into the
overnight, with a few instances of hail possible.

..Guyer/Dean.. 10/08/2026


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SPC Oct 8, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or
tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place today from the
upper Mississippi Valley into the Northeast, as west-northwesterly
flow aloft remains over most of the remainder of the nation. At the
surface, a moist airmass will be located along the Gulf Coast, where
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible, mainly from
southeastern Louisiana eastward to Florida. Additional storms may
develop in parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region.
Scattered storms will also be possible in Iowa and from northern New
York into northern New England. No severe threat is expected today
or tonight across the continental U.S.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 10/08/2026


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SPC Oct 8, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. this evening and
tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern is in place over the northeastern
third of the nation, with west-northwesterly flow located over the
remainder of the U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass is located in
along the Gulf Coast, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible
this evening and tonight, mainly across the Florida Peninsula.
Scattered storms will also be possible ahead of a shortwave trough
in the Northeast, and across parts of the Four Corners region. No
severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. through
daybreak on Thursday.

..Broyles.. 10/08/2026


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SPC Oct 7, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the contiguous
United States through tonight.

...20Z Update...
No changes were needed with this update. Within the exit region of a
robust midlevel jet overspreading the Midwest, a couple of strong
low-topped thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Great Lakes
this afternoon, and over the Lower Great Lakes this evening/tonight.
While enhanced low/midlevel flow accompanying the jet and steep
lapse rates could aid in a few strong wind gusts (potentially 40-50
mph) across both areas, limited buoyancy and increasing low-level
static stability over the Lower Great Lakes should limit the overall
severe risk.

..Weinman.. 10/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026/

...Central portion of the Florida Peninsula...
A diffuse frontal zone modulated by scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorm activity will remain draped over the central portion of
the FL Peninsula through tonight. A very moist tropospheric profile
(sampled by the 12 UTC Tampa Bay raob) featuring weak lapse rates
will limit overall updraft strength with scattered convection this
afternoon across the Peninsula. Weak flow (at or below 20 kt) from
surface through 300 mb will also act to restrict storm organization
potential. Although a brief tornado/waterspout near the coast
cannot be ruled out, it appears the risk for transient supercell
structures and an associated threat for a brief tornado appear
sufficiently low to preclude introducing severe probabilities this
outlook update.

...Northern New York...
Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible late today and
more so into tonight, influenced by an amplifying upstream
upper-level trough and approaching cold front. Overall buoyancy
will be limited, but still sufficient for the possibility of
thunderstorms. Furthermore, some convective enhancement/gusty winds
are plausible tonight given the increasing magnitude of the
low/mid-tropospheric flow and steepening lapse rates atop the
boundary layer.


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