SPC Aug 9, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST...AND PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds may occur today into this evening from
southern Minnesota and eastern Iowa eastward across parts of
northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin, southern Lower Michigan,
northwest Ohio, and northern Indiana. Damaging wind and hail is also
expected across portions of the Dakotas.

...IA/MN into the Midwest...

Convection is expected to be ongoing this morning across parts of
southern MN into eastern IA. This early day activity could pose a
risk for damaging gusts. This activity is likely to continue to
spread eastward across the Lake Michigan vicinity through the
afternoon on the nose a of modest low-level jet and along a surface
front oriented across southern WI and Lower MI. This activity could
intensify as is moves into a destabilizing airmass by midday.

Additional development is possible within the moisture rich warm
sector across northern IL/IN along the southern flank of ongoing
convection and/or outflow. Strong to extreme instability is
forecast, while vertically veering wind profiles support 30+ kt
effective shear magnitudes. Low-level SRH also will be enhanced
along the surface boundary. While damaging winds are expected to be
the primary hazard with convection, some risk for hail and a tornado
or two also will exist through evening. Depending on the evolution
of morning convection, it is possible higher probabilities will be
needed in subsequent outlooks.

...Dakotas and western NE...

A surface front is expected to develop southward across the central
Plains, becoming oriented across northern KS by tonight. Low-level
warm advection atop the boundary, and surface winds becoming
south/southeasterly with time will maintain 60s dewpoints across the
region. Within this post-frontal upslope regime, moderate
northwesterly flow aloft will persist. A modest south/southwesterly
low-level jet is also forecast to develop during the evening hours.
Low-level convergence within the warm advection regime and
increasing low-level jet may be sufficient for isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development. Supercell wind profiles and steep
low-level lapse rates will support initial storms capable of large
hail and damaging winds. If sufficient clusters/outflow
consolidation can occur, upscale growth during the late evening into
overnight hours is possible, with an increasing risk for swaths of
severe/damaging gusts.

...Southern Appalachians...

Scattered thunderstorm development is expected over higher terrain
within a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. Steepening low-level
lapse rates and high PW values may support locally strong gusts with
wet microbursts through early evening.

...AZ...

Modest easterly mid/upper flow will persist across the region on the
southern periphery of an upper high over the Four Corners. Another
day of hot conditions will promote steep lapse rates and modest
destabilization. As convection develops over higher terrain and
spread westward, strong outflow gusts may occur.

..Leitman/Moore.. 08/09/2026


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SPC Aug 9, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MN/IA...OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
AZ...AND FROM CENTRAL OH INTO WESTERN NY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated instances of large to very large hail will be possible
across the northern Plains through tonight.

...Dakotas into MN/IA and the MO Valley...

Isolated thunderstorms have developed early this evening across
south-central ND. Isolated large to very large hail may accompany
these storms if they can intensify and be maintained. It is
uncertain if this convection will continue to develop east/southeast
into SD given strong capping, or if additional convection will
develop later tonight as a low-level jet increases. Reference MCD
1872 for more short term information. Despite uncertainty in
convective evolution through the evening into tonight, severe
potential, mainly in the form of large hail near 2 inch diameter,
and strong wind gusts, remains possible.

...Ohio Valley into western NY...

Thunderstorm clusters have develop ahead of a surface front from OH
into western PA/NY. This activity will continue to spread eastward
within moderate instability through early tonight. Sporadic strong
wind gusts will be possible for a few more hours before weakening
with loss of daytime heating and increasing nocturnal boundary layer
stabilization.

...AZ...

Isolated thunderstorms developing over higher terrain will continue
to spread westward across the lower deserts tonight. Strong wind
gusts will be possible with this activity.

...CO/KS vicinity...

Thick smoke across the region has muted instability across CO into
northeast KS and vicinity. Any stronger convection has moved south
into southwest KS where locally gusty winds are possible for another
couple of hours. However, severe potential appears limited with
anemic high-based showers moving across eastern CO into northwest KS
and southwest NE. As such, severe probabilities have been removed.

...TX...

Outflow from a thunderstorm cluster across northeast TX will
continue to progress south/southwest this evening. Instability
lessens with westward extent and, with loss of daytime heating,
low-level inhibition will increase. Severe potential has largely
diminished and probabilities have been removed.

...NC vicinity...

Thunderstorms have gradually weakened over the past 30-60 minutes as
low-level inhibition increases with the loss of daytime heating. As
such, severe potential has diminished and severe probabilities have
been removed.

..Leitman.. 08/09/2026


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SPC Aug 8, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable primarily of
damaging gusts will be possible today from the Mid-Atlantic states
into southwest New England.

...Northeast States...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough
over OH tracking eastward. A warm/moist air mass is present ahead of
the trough, with pockets of MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg expected later
today. Large scale forcing associated with the trough is rather
weak, and overall coverage of storms may be rather isolated.
However, stronger winds aloft than yesterday suggest a conditional
risk of wind damage with any sustained storm later today. Have
extended the SLGT risk area a little farther north into NY/MA where
morning model guidance suggests higher coverage/confidence in
storms. Have also extended the MRGL farther west into OH beneath
the upper trough where widely scattered storms may also produce
gusty/damaging winds.

...Western NC...
A few afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form off the mountains
of western NC and vicinity, and track slowly southeastward. Strong
daytime heating, humid conditions, and sufficient CAPE may promote a
risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cores.

...North TX...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form along an E-W axis across
north TX this afternoon in a hot/humid air mass. The strongest of
these slow-moving cells may produce damaging winds.

...NE/KS...
A cluster of strong thunderstorms is ongoing over central NE. This
activity may persist into the afternoon, tracking southeastward
toward northeast KS/northwest MO. Given the corridor of high CAPE
in this zone, a few strong/severe storms capable of damaging winds
and hail are possible.

...ND/SD/MN/IA...
A strengthening southerly low-level jet will likely lead to
scattered thunderstorms tonight after midnight over central ND.
These storms are expected to develop southeastward into parts of
SD/MN/IA before 12z. Relatively strong vertical shear will support
supercells capable of hail and damaging winds.

...AZ...
Full sunshine and sufficient CAPE will once again promote
thunderstorm develop off the Mogollon Rim this afternoon and
evening. Forecast soundings show increasing mid-level moisture
through the evening as an upper trough passes to the south, perhaps
aiding convective maintenance westward into the lower elevations.
If so, given the favorable steering flow, strong/severe outflow
winds could spread into the PHX area around 00z. This scenario will
be monitored for a possible upgrade to SLGT in later outlooks.

..Hart/Weinman.. 08/08/2026


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SPC Aug 8, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable primarily of
damaging gusts will be possible today across the Mid-Atlantic states
into southern New England.

...Mid-Atlantic states into southern New England...
Satellite imagery this morning indicates a weak disturbance moving
east across the Lower Great Lakes, with early morning
showers/thunderstorms from WV/PA into western NY likely associated
with this feature. Strong heating from Chesapeake Bay northward
into southern portions of the Northeast will yield around 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE by early afternoon. Of particular note is seemingly adequate
strength of flow between 700-250 mb for organized line segments.
Given the relatively high PW environment (1.75-2.0 inches),
expecting a few clusters to evolve this afternoon with an attendant
risk for strong to locally severe gusts (50-65 mph). Have
expanded/increased severe-wind probabilities into southern New
England and southward into the Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Marginally
severe hail may also occur with the stronger cells before excessive
outflow leads to more linear structures as this activity pushes east
towards the coast by the early evening.

...Northern/Central Plains into MN/IA/MO...
Radar/satellite mosaic shows a cluster of strong to locally severe
thunderstorms over the NE Sandhills this morning. This activity may
continue southeast this morning but weaken as it moves across
central NE. Above average uncertainty/low confidence for this
forecast is due in part to weak to negligible forcing features and
large model spread on potential evolution of isolated to widely
scattered storms later today into tonight. Nonetheless, a strongly
unstable airmass is forecast to develop by early afternoon across
much of the region with 60s to lower 70s boundary layer dewpoints
beneath steep 700-500 mb lapse rates.

Several areas of convection may develop during the late
afternoon/evening near the surface trough, and overnight near the
southward-sagging surface front. Weak convergence along early day
outflow may rejuvenate convection or lead to additional isolated
storms over southern NE into northern KS. This may also coincide
with an increasing low-level jet across the central Plains during
the evening into the overnight, but capping will likely limit storm
coverage except perhaps near a southward-sagging surface front near
the ND/SD border and with warm advection over southern MN into IA.
Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the more intense
thunderstorms.

Additional high-based convection is possible across eastern CO and
western KS/NE. A hot and well mixed boundary layer will probably
support isolated severe gusts.

...AZ...
Easterly midlevel flow will persist on the southern periphery of an
upper high over the Four Corners. Steep midlevel lapse rates and
persistent moisture across the region will foster thunderstorm
development across the higher terrain during the evening. The hot
and well mixed boundary layer will support strong outflow gusts as
convection moves westward off higher terrain toward the lower
deserts.

..Smith/Kerr.. 08/08/2026


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