SPC Sep 19, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail are
possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central
Plains.

...Ohio Valley...
Recent surface analysis places a weak low over northern IN, along
the northern end of an outflow boundary that is pushing
southward/south-southeastward across central IL and central IN.
Airmass south of this boundary is very moist, with dewpoints
generally in the upper 60s to low 70s. Filtered heating is
anticipated across this region today, with the resulting warm and
moist conditions supporting moderate buoyancy. The strongest
buoyancy is expected from southern IN into southwest OH and adjacent
far northern KY. The surging character of the outflow combined with
limited deep-layer vertical shear results in uncertainty regarding
how thunderstorms will evolve this afternoon, with at least some
potential for a predominance of undercut, poorly organized updrafts.
That being said, potential also exists for just enough
buoyancy/shear balance for a few stronger, more persistent bowing
clusters. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote strong to severe
gusts with any more persistent line segments that develop.

...Southern Appalachians/Southeast...
Warm and moist conditions will support airmass destabilization and
the potential of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across the region.
The region is largely void of coherent surface features, so any
convective initiation would likely be tied to mesoscale areas of
low-level confluence. Widely scattered to scattered storms are
forecast during the afternoon, and a few stronger water-loaded
downdrafts capable of 50 to 60 mph gusts are possible.

...Central and Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
Recent surface analysis places a low over southwest IA, with a cold
front extending back southwestward through southwest KS and the
central OK Panhandle into the northwest TX Panhandle. This front is
expected to slowly push south while larger-scale mid-level troughing
over the Great Basin and central Rockies gradually shifts eastward.
A seasonably moist airmass is in place ahead of the cold front, and
moderate buoyancy is expected as this airmass heats and destabilizes
this afternoon.

Low-level convergence along the cold front, augmented by modest
large-scale forcing for ascent, will support scattered storm
development during the late afternoon and early evening as
convective inhibition is locally eroded. Given adequate speed and
directional shear, a few short-lived supercells are possible early
in the convective cycle, particularly across KS. Large hail will be
possible with the stronger updrafts. Thereafter, high-based storm
character coupled with steep low-level lapse rates will support
strong to severe gusts, including the potential for a few gusts of
60 to 75 mph.

...Central High Plains...
Low-level easterly flow across the central High Plains will help
maintain at least upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints across the region this
afternoon/evening. The low-amplitude shortwave trough currently
moving through northern NV/UT is forecast to continue eastward,
interacting with this moist and unstable airmass to support
scattered thunderstorm development. With time, strengthening
mid-level flow will help support upscale growth from a loosely
organized band of a storms (including some supercells) to a more
organized linear cluster. Some hail is possible early with the more
cellular development, with wind gusts becoming more likely with
time. There is some indication this activity may continue into
western KS during the late evening and early overnight.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 09/19/2026


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SPC Sep 19, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail are
possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central
Plains.

...Central and Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
Larger-scale mid-level troughing over the Great Basin and central
Rockies will gradually shift eastward with falling heights spreading
east across the central Great Plains and lower MO Valley through
daybreak Sunday. A cold front draped in a general west-southwest to
east-northeast orientation from central High Plains to the mid MS
Valley will slowly push south. A seasonably moist airmass ahead of
the boundary over KS/MO into northwestern OK will become moderately
unstable by mid afternoon. Scattered storm development is
eventually expected during the late afternoon and early evening as
convective inhibition is locally eroded. Steep 0-3 km lapse rates
(8.5-9.5 deg C/km) will aid in storm vigor and the potential for
strong evaporative cooling with the more intense cores. Have
introduced an intensity level 1 for the wind hazard (60-75 mph
gusts) where a combination of HREF ensemble guidance and higher PW
and lapse rates overlap. A few short-lived supercells are possible
given the adequate speed and directional shear according to model
forecast soundings across the KS vicinity. Large hail will be
possible with the stronger updrafts. This threat will likely
diminish during the evening.

...Central High Plains...
The airmass north of a cool front will heat/destabilize through
mid-late afternoon ahead of the aforementioned upper-level trough
impinging on the region from the west. Some easterly component to
the low-level flow will aid in maintaining a fetch of sufficient
moisture (mainly 50s deg F surface dewpoints) into much of the
central High Plains. Models indicate scattered storms developing
near/east of I-25 with increasing storm coverage expected through
the early evening. With time, a loosely organized band of a storms
(including some supercells) will probably grow upscale and
transition to a linear cluster as it moves east across eastern CO
into western KS. Have included 15-percent wind probabilities across
eastern CO to account for this favorable storm mode evolution for
severe gusts. There is some indication this activity may continue
into western KS during the late evening and early overnight,
prompting the inclusion of low severe-wind probabilities.
Uncertainty remains regarding the character/intensity of this
activity across western KS (e.g., 19/06z MPAS-HT), especially if the
depth of post-frontal airmass and near-surface static stability are
similar to the 19/06z NAM depiction.

...Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians/Southeast...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be located over much of the
northeastern third of the U.S. today. At the surface, an axis of
low-level moisture will be oriented from the Ohio Valley southward
into the southern Appalachians, along which moderate instability is
expected to be in place by afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered
storms are forecast during the afternoon. A few of the stronger
downdrafts may be capable of a strong to locally severe wind-gust
threat (50 to 60 mph) capable of wind damage.

..Smith/Mead.. 09/19/2026


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SPC Sep 19, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail are
possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central
Plains. Isolated severe wind gusts and hail may occur in parts of
the southern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe gusts
will also be possible from the Ohio Valley southward into the
Southeast.

...Central and Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
Mid-level heights will steadily fall over the central U.S. today, as
southwesterly flow aloft becomes established over much of the
region. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward
across the central Plains, and should be positioned from central
Kansas to far northwest Missouri by late afternoon. Ahead of the
front, surface dewpoints will be mostly from the mid 60s to mid 70s
F. As surface temperatures warm today, the moisture will contribute
to moderate destabilization. Thunderstorm initiation will become
likely by late afternoon across central and eastern Kansas, as
low-level convergence increases along and ahead of the front. A
complex of organized storms is expected to become established by
early evening and should persist for several hours.

RAP forecast soundings by early evening near the instability axis
have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with substantial
directional shear in the low-levels. In addition, low to mid-level
lapse rates are forecast to become steep. This environment should
support a large hail threat with supercells. A wind-damage threat
will also be possible, especially if a line segment can persist and
become organized during the evening. A marginal severe threat may
also develop southwestward across parts of the southern High Plains,
where hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible in the late
afternoon and early evening.

...Central High Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Intermountain
West today, as flow aloft remains southwesterly over the central
Rockies and central High Plains. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southward across southeastern Colorado and western Kansas.
Behind the front, surface dewpoints in eastern Colorado will be in
the upper 50s to lower 60s F. The moisture will enable moderate
destabilization over much of eastern Colorado by afternoon. Warming
surface temperatures will lead to scattered thunderstorm development
in the higher terrain, with this convection moving eastward into the
central High Plains during the late afternoon. RAP forecast
soundings at 21Z in eastern Colorado have 0-6 shear in the 35 to 40
knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
environment will likely support a threat for large hail with
supercells. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible. A
marginal severe threat may also develop further north into parts of
eastern Wyoming and far western Nebraska, but instability will
remain relatively weak there.

...Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians/Southeast...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be located over much of the
northeastern third of the U.S today. At the surface, an axis of
low-level moisture will be oriented from the Ohio Valley southward
into the southern Appalachians, along which moderate instability is
expected to be in place by afternoon. Convective development will be
possible in parts of the airmass, where localized surface heating
and low-level convergence become maximized. Thunderstorms in areas
with moderate instability could produce isolated severe wind gusts,
mainly during the late afternoon and early evening.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/19/2026


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SPC Sep 19, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this
evening across parts of the mid Missouri Valley and Central High
Plains. A few severe wind gusts and hail may occur in parts of the
Intermountain West.

...Mid Missouri Valley...
An upper-level ridge is currently present in the central U.S, with a
30 to 40 knot low-level jet located near the ridge in the mid
Missouri Valley. Isolated thunderstorms have developed early this
evening in eastern Nebraska, near the axis of the low-level jet.
Surface dewpoints in eastern Nebraska are in the lower to mid 70s F,
with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. While
the 00Z Omaha sounding has 0-6 km shear of 20 to 25 knots,
deep-layer shear is likely a bit stronger southward in the vicinity
of the low-level jet. This could be enough for an isolated
wind-damage threat. The threat may develop northeastward into
western and central Iowa this evening as low-level flow and
convective coverage both increase.

...Central Plains...
An anti-cyclonic flow pattern is present over much of the
north-central U.S. The eastern extension of a mid-level shortwave
trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is located over east-central
Colorado. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing just ahead of the
trough from northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska, where the
RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The WSR-88D VWPs at
Goodland and Cheyenne have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range,
suggesting that an isolated severe threat will be possible early
this evening. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat.

...Intermountain West...
On water vapor imagery, southwesterly mid-level flow is present from
the central Rockies into the central High Plains. A mid-level
shortwave trough appears to be located from near the Unita Mountains
in northeast Utah eastward into the central Rockies of Colorado.
Large-scale ascent associated with the trough is supporting
scattered thunderstorm development. The RAP shows the strongest
instability across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado, where
moderate deep-layer shear and modestly steep lapse rates are evident
on RAP analysis. This could be enough for an isolated potential for
severe wind gusts and hail over the next few hours.

..Broyles.. 09/19/2026


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