SPC Jan 23, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0958 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight
across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas.

A large upper trough will deepen over the Rockies and High Plains
this evening, with large-scale forcing for ascent spreading across
much of TX/OK. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficiently
steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE > 0 to support occasional
thunderstorms. This includes parts of western north TX and southern
OK where freezing p-types are anticipated.

Over south TX, the main cold front will be surging southward into a
moist air mass with dewpoints in the 60s. Several model solutions
suggest the development of a few thunderstorms along the front -
mainly after dark. While a brief tornado or strong wind gust cannot
be ruled out, rapid undercutting of the front is expected to limit
the overall severe threat so no probabilities have been added.

..Hart/Grams.. 01/23/2026


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SPC Jan 23, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the country through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Lightning activity off the southeastern FL coast has diminished over
the past several hours amid weakening broad-scale ascent and modest
mid-level height rises. While sporadic weak convection remains
possible off the coast, the overall thunderstorm potential appears
sufficiently limited to warrant removal of thunder probabilities.

Elsewhere across the country, 00z RAOBs sampled mostly dry and
stable conditions that will largely mitigate thunderstorm potential.
A few recent model runs hint that 50-100 MUCAPE may develop across
southern AZ/NM as broad-scale lift increases ahead of the upper wave
currently over southern CA. Forecast equilibrium temperatures near
-20 C could support sporadic lightning flashes during the 08-12 UTC
time frame. However, consensus among guidance is very limited on
this potential, and the recent 00z TUS sounding suggests substantial
moistening within the lowest 300 mb is required before thunderstorms
can be supported.

..Moore.. 01/23/2026


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SPC Jan 22, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida
today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected.

No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.

..Hart.. 01/22/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0955 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026/

...SE FL...
A weak surface boundary lies just offshore along the southeast FL
coast. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will persist along
this boundary through early evening as an upper trough progresses
across the region. This threat should weaken after dark. No severe
storms are expected.


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SPC Jan 22, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0955 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida
today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...SE FL...
A weak surface boundary lies just offshore along the southeast FL
coast. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will persist along
this boundary through early evening as an upper trough progresses
across the region. This threat should weaken after dark. No severe
storms are expected.

..Hart/Wendt.. 01/22/2026


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