Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
GEORGIA NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are
expected across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity during the afternoon and
evening. Additional strong to severe storms are expected across the
upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes area.
...Synopsis...
A broad large-scale trough and accompanying belt of strong midlevel
west-southwesterly flow will move eastward from the Great
Lakes/upper OH Valley region into the Northeast through the period.
At the same time, a related cold front will advance eastward across
the OH Valley during the afternoon, before reaching the Mid-Atlantic
and southern New England coast during the overnight hours.
...Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the cold front
during the afternoon, focused within a pre-frontal trough extending
from the Mid-Atlantic southward into the lee of the southern
Appalachians. From roughly southern/eastern VA southward, upper 60s
to lower 70s dewpoints and steepening boundary-layer lapse rates
will yield a corridor of strong surface-based buoyancy ahead of
storms. Despite weaker deep-layer shear and limited midlevel height
falls with southward extent, the strongly unstable air mass will
favor eastward-moving thunderstorm clusters capable of producing
damaging wind gusts. Over the Mid-Atlantic region, stronger midlevel
westerly flow will contribute to 30-40 kt of effective shear amid
moderate surface-based buoyancy. This environment will support
several loosely organized clusters capable of scattered damaging
wind gusts. Here, 30-percent wind probabilities remain in place, and
while a locally higher concentration of wind damage will be possible
with any longer-lived clusters that may evolve, this will be largely
dependent on mesoscale factors.
...Upper OH Valley into southern New England...
Along the cold front, a broken band of thunderstorms will spread
eastward from the lower Great Lakes into the upper OH Valley and
southern New England during the afternoon into the evening hours.
Stronger midlevel height falls and around 40 kt of front-parallel
effective shear should favor a linear mode, with the primary concern
being strong-severe wind gusts.
...Southern High Plains...
Along the tail-end of a composite cold front/outflow boundary
extending westward into the southern Rockies/High Plains, widely
scattered thunderstorms will spread southeastward during the
afternoon. Given moist easterly low-level flow and 30-40 kt of
effective shear along the boundary, a couple loosely organized
storms will pose a risk of locally severe gusts and hail. Additional
storms are expected along the boundary extending eastward across
northern/central TX to the ArkLaTex, though weaker deep-layer shear
should limit storm longevity/organization here.
..Weinman/Halbert.. 06/14/2026
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