SPC Nov 3, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes are expected across parts of the southern and central
Plains this evening into tonight. Severe storms will also affect
western Missouri and northwest Arkansas overnight.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
On water vapor imagery, an upper-level trough is evident in the
southern High Plains with cyclonically curved southwest flow in
place over the southern and central Plains. Within this flow, a 60
to 80 knot mid-level jet is analyzed from southern New Mexico
extending northeastward into western Oklahoma. A line of strong to
severe storms is ongoing to the east of the mid-level jet in an area
with strong large-scale ascent from far southern Kansas into
southwest Oklahoma. Ahead of this line, surface dewpoints are mostly
in the lower to mid 60s F and the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500
J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Oklahoma City has 0-6 km
shear of 65 to 70 knots with some directional shear in the
low-levels, and backing in the mid-levels. The strong deep-layer
shear will continue to be favorable for severe storms this evening,
as a line segment gradually organizes and moves eastward across the
moist sector.

So far across Oklahoma, the dominant storm mode has been linear, and
discrete supercell development has failed to materialize. This will
likely continue to be a problem this evening concerning the
potential for a greater severe and tornado threat. Within the
ongoing line, tornado potential will be maximized with embedded
rotating elements. A few QLCS-type tornadoes still appear possible
as this line moves eastward across central/northern Oklahoma and
southeast Kansas this evening. A wind-damage threat will accompany
the line, and a few gusts above 70 mph will be possible, mainly with
the segments of the line that exhibit bowing structure...see MCD
2435 and 2437. The severe threat should impact western Missouri and
northwest Arkansas during the overnight period.

Further south into southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas, the cells
have been more discrete early this evening. A couple of supercells
are ongoing near the Red River. These storms are located along the
far southern edge of the low-level jet. As the low-level jet
continues to ramp up this evening, low-level shear will be favorable
for continued severe thunderstorm development. Severe wind gusts,
hail and potentially a few tornadoes will be possible...see MCD
2436.

...West-central and North-central Texas...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough in the
southern High Plains. The southeastern edge of the system is located
across west-central Teas, where a band of strong thunderstorms is
currently developing. These storms are located near a surface trough
along the northwestern edge of a moist airmass with surface
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F. Near the surface trough, the
RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, the VAD
wind profilers near San Angelo and Abilene have 40 to 50 knots of
west-southwesterly flow in the mid-levels, which should support
supercell development this evening. The primary threats are expected
to be severe wind gusts and hail.

..Broyles.. 11/03/2026


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SPC Nov 2, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes are expected across parts of the southern and central
Plains from this afternoon into tonight.

...20Z Update...
A potent shortwave trough evident in water vapor satellite imagery
is beginning to take on a neutral-to-negative tilt, as the trough
and its associated jet streak progresses eastward out of New Mexico
into the Texas Panhandle. In advance of this shortwave, deepening
cumulus and thunderstorm development in response to the approaching
wave are evident on visible satellite and radar imagery. As better
moisture is transported northward ahead of this development and a
narrow corridor of mixing further destabilizes the environment,
these (and subsequent) thunderstorms are expected to become severe.
Storms should initially favor a supercell mode before growing
upscale into linear convective complexes.

The Enhanced Risk for tornadoes was expanded south and west into
portions of Central Oklahoma to account for recent observational
trends and short-term forecast guidance, while hail probabilities
were expanded further north and east to account for ongoing elevated
convection capable of 1.00-1.50 inch hail. Greater uncertainty
exists in where the primary corridor of damaging wind potential will
materialize, but leading edge bowing segments will be capable of
65-80 MPH damaging wind gusts.

..Halbert-K.. 11/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026/

...Central/Southern Plains...
A large upper trough is present today over the western states, with
a strong shortwave trough rotating across the Four-Corners area. As
this features and its associated 80+ knot mid level jet begin to
eject into the southern Plains this afternoon, numerous
thunderstorms are expected to form from west-central TX northward
into parts of KS/NE. Widespread dewpoints in the low-mid 60s,
pockets of heating, and strong low-level winds across a broad area
will result in conditional risks of damaging winds, a few tornadoes,
and some hail. However, there are a few specific scenarios that
appear most likely to focus that risk.

...OK/KS early this afternoon...
Water vapor imagery shows a lead trough currently moving into
western OK. This feature is expected to aid in the development of
scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon, tracking into southern
KS. Wind fields are very strong in this area, and a few supercell
structures are expected. However, forecast soundings show poor
low-level thermodynamics with LFC heights around 700mb. This should
limit the severe risk.

...KS/OK/North TX this afternoon/evening...
The primary severe risk will be with storms forming along the
surface dryline over western OK and south-central KS by late
afternoon. These storms will also be in a favorable shear profile
for supercell structures, but cooling temperatures aloft will also
increase the risk of robust updrafts as storms track quickly
northeastward. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are the main
concerns. By early evening, the Pacific cold front will catch up to
the convective line, resulting in more linear structures and greater
wind potential.

...West-Central TX...
The aforementioned convective line will build southward into
west-central TX through the evening, with some risk of damaging
winds and a tornado or two. Low-level winds and large-scale
dynamics will be weaker with southward extent, lessening the overall
severe threat.


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SPC Nov 2, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes
are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains from
this afternoon into tonight.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a deep shortwave trough
progressing through the Four Corners vicinity, with a lead shortwave
trough moving through the central Plains. Evolution of the lead
shortwave has contributed to the development of a pair of surface
lows, one near the MT/SD/ND border intersection and the other over
the western NE/SD border vicinity. Recent surface analysis reveals a
cold front extending between these two lows and south-southwestward
from the southernmost low through eastern CO. A large warm sector
precedes this cold front, with 60s dewpoints reaching into central
NE and mid 60s reaching through the eastern TX and OK Panhandles
into western KS.

The Four Corners shortwave trough is forecast to continue eastward
today, reaching the central/southern High Plains by this afternoon
and through much of the central and southern Plains by early Tuesday
morning. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will precede this system,
spreading eastward/northeastward from the southern Plains into the
Mid/Upper MS Valley throughout the period. Thunderstorms are
expected over much the Plains today as this system interacts with
the moist and unstable airmass in place.

A weak upper low will also drift westward from the FL Peninsula into
the eastern Gulf. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected
across the FL Peninsula today as this low interacts with the very
moist airmass in place.

...Southern and Central Plains into Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing from the
eastern TX Panhandle through central KS this morning. These showers
and thunderstorms are expected to continue northeastward as the lead
shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis continues northeastward.
Some mid-level drying is anticipated in the wake of these storms
from western/central KS southward along the TX/OK border into
northwest TX. This drying should allow for filtered heating across
this region, allowing temperatures to climb into mid 70s (across
western KS) to low 80s (across northwest TX). These temperatures
should be high enough to erode much, if not all, of the convective
inhibition, setting the stage for afternoon thunderstorm development
as height falls associated with the Four Corners shortwave trough
impinge on the region.

Strong southwesterly mid-level flow will support long hodographs,
although the more moderate low-level flow does result in some
weakening/backing between 850 and 700 mb. As a result, initial
development may take some time to get organized, with at least some
potential for it to trend towards bowing line segments. However, the
general expectation is for at least a few isolated, warm-sector
supercells from south-central KS through western OK by 22-23Z.
Low-level flow is forecast to increase once again around 00Z, so any
supercells that persist should begin to encounter increasingly
favorable kinematics during that time frame. This evolution suggests
a corridor of relatively greater tornado potential from
north-central OK into south-central KS where it is most likely for
supercells to interact with the strengthening low-level shear.

Additional storm development is anticipated along the dryline
itself. By 00Z Tuesday, this dryline will likely extend southward
from western KS along the TX/OK border and int southwest TX. Gradual
eastward progression of this dryline is anticipated before the cold
front catches up to it in the central KS/central OK vicinity early
Tuesday morning. Severe wind gusts and a QLCS tornado threat will be
possible with this line throughout the evening and overnight hours,
with the threat potentially continuing into the early morning across
portions of western MO and the OK/AR border vicinity.

...North TX into the TX Hill Country...
Late afternoon/early evening thunderstorm development is anticipated
along the dryline as it interacts with the moist and unstable
airmass in place across the region. The stronger mid-level flow and
forcing for ascent will be displaced north of the region, but
vertical shear will be strong enough to support organized updrafts.
Large hail is possible early in the convective cycle, but damaging
gusts appear to be the main threat as the convection grows upscale
into an eastward-propagating line. A few line-embedded tornadoes are
possible as well, particularly across north-central TX where
low-level shear is maximized on the southern edge of the low-level
jet.

...FL Peninsula...
Widespread showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms are
anticipated across the FL Peninsula today. Buoyancy will remain
fairly modest, and vertical shear is weak, limiting the overall
severe potential. However, ample low-level moisture and relatively
strong low-level westerly flow could support a brief tornado,
particularly via constructive interaction between cells. However,
the overall potential appears too low to introduce any tornado
probabilities with this outlook.

..Mosier/Mosier.. 11/02/2026


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SPC Nov 2, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 PM CST Sun Nov 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes
are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains from
this afternoon into tonight.

...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley...
An upper-level trough will move across the southern Rockies today
and into the southern High Plains. Ahead of the system, the exit
region of a mid-level jet will overspread the southern and central
Plains this afternoon and evening. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward across the central High Plains as a
pre-frontal trough moves into the southern and central Plains. Ahead
of this feature, moisture advection will take place with surface
dewpoints gradually increasing into the mid to upper 60s F over much
of Texas, Oklahoma and the eastern half of Kansas. Across the moist
sector, RAP forecast soundings suggest that MLCAPE will only peak in
the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. As surface temperatures warm and
low-level convergence becomes maximized near the pre-frontal trough
in the afternoon, convective development will take place.
Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in coverage from
the afternoon into the early evening, as several line segments
organize and move east-northeastward across the moist sector.

The convective mode is the main question for this event. It seems
possible that the convection will line out quickly during the
afternoon, and that discrete cell formation will be minimized. Even
so, widespread large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear will
likely support severe thunderstorm development with vigorous
updrafts associated with organized lines and potentially
semi-discrete supercells. The latest RAP forecast soundings from
central Oklahoma north-northeastward into eastern Kansas suggest
that 0-6 km shear will be around 50 knots. Although some directional
shear is present, the stronger component will be speed increases
with height in the low-levels. Near the axis of the low-level jet,
0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to peak in the 250 to 300
m2/s2 range. This will support a tornado threat with supercells and
with rotating elements embedded in organized line segments. Severe
wind gusts will also be possible with the more intense line
segments, especially with bowing structures. A greater tornado
threat could materialize across Oklahoma or southeast Kansas, if a
cluster of discrete cells can persist into the late afternoon or
early evening. A severe threat will continue throughout the evening
as a larger-scale line segment moves eastward across the moist
sector, reaching western Missouri and far eastern Oklahoma around
midnight. Severe wind gusts and perhaps a QLCS tornado threat will
be possible with this line.

...Texas...
Southwesterly cyclonic mid-level flow will be in place today across
much of Texas, as an upper-level trough approaches. Ahead of the
system, an axis of moderate instability will develop as surface
temperatures warm. A capping inversion will be in place over much of
Texas into afternoon. This cap will likely weaken during the mid
afternoon, allowing for convective initiation over parts of
west-central and northwest Texas. A convective band, with a mixed
mode, is expected to form and move eastward into north-central Texas
by early evening. Ahead of this forecast band by 00Z, surface
dewpoints are expected to peak in the upper 60s F, with MLCAPE
reaching the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. This will be favorable for
strong updrafts and scattered severe storms. The southeastern edge
of the mid-level jet will create moderate deep-layer shear along the
axis of instability. This will support supercell development with
cells that can remain discrete. Intense line segments are also
expected with cells that congeal. Severe wind gusts and a couple
tornadoes will be possible during the late afternoon and early to
mid evening. The greatest tornado threat should be concentrated in
north-central Texas where low-level shear is maximized on the
southern edge of the low-level jet.

..Broyles/Weinman.. 11/02/2026


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