Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the
Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail
may occur with thunderstorms in North Dakota with more sporadic
occurrences of hail and damaging winds from the southern High Plains
into the Tennessee Valley and in parts of the northern Rockies.
...Synopsis...
A series of weak mid-level disturbances (some of convective origin)
will contribute modest trough amplification from the OH Valley into
the TN and lower MS Valleys on Sunday while another disturbance
approaches the Mid-Atlantic from the west. Elsewhere, a short-wave
trough and associated 50+ kt mid-level jet streak will move through
southern parts of British Columbia and Alberta with downstream
height falls overspreading the northern Rockies into northern High
Plains.
At the surface, a weak front is forecast to become established from
an area of low pressure over OH into the DE River Valley. A
secondary surface low may materialize over the Delmarva near the
intersection of the front and a lee trough extending south-southwest
into the Carolina Piedmont. Farther west, a cold front will settle
southeast into the northern High Plains.
...Upper Ohio Valley into Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas...
A hot and very moist air mass is expected to exist from the vicinity
of the surface front in eastern PA and NJ south along the lee trough
into the Carolinas with MLCAPE increasing to 1500-3000+ J/kg.
Convergence near the surface low and attending boundaries may be
augmented by weak forcing for ascent ahead of a subtle short-wave
trough to yield scattered thunderstorm development by early to mid
afternoon.
The strongest deep-layer shear of 30-35 kt is forecast in the
vicinity of the surface front in eastern PA and NJ, where episodic
supercell structures are possible with an attendant risk for
marginally severe hail and damaging winds. Otherwise, the
expectation is for pulse-type and multicell storms to merge into
clusters or line segments with the hot, well-mixed PBL and
resultant, steep low-level lapse rates enhancing damaging wind
potential from mid afternoon into evening.
Damaging wind potential is expected to be more sporadic with
southward extent into the Carolinas owing to decreased vertical
shear and forcing for ascent.
Farther west in the upper OH Valley, a remnant MCV may focus an
additional cluster of afternoon thunderstorms near the surface low
and associated front. Both vertical shear and instability are
expected to be weaker than the segment of the front nearer to the
Mid-Atlantic Coast. Nonetheless, some 00Z CAM guidance suggests the
potential for brief cold-pool organization with an associated risk
for locally damaging wind gusts.
...Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains...
Modest height falls are forecast Sunday afternoon into evening to
the east and southeast of the short-wave trough mentioned in the
synopsis. And while the boundary-layer is forecast to remain
relatively dry ahead of the cold front, the presence of steep
low/mid-level lapse rates will largely contribute to pockets of
moderate instability with MLCAPE as high as 1500-2000 J/kg in parts
of northern ND.
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected by mid afternoon in the
vicinity of the front in southwest MT with additional storms
expected by late afternoon or early evening along the boundary in
western into north-central ND. The MT storms are expected to be high
based atop a well-mixed boundary layer with severe wind gusts being
the predominant hazard. Stronger instability and vertical shear are
forecast in ND, leading to the potential for a few supercells
capable of large to very large hail.
...Southern Plains into Gulf Coast States and Tennessee Valley...
One or multiple outflow boundaries remnant from overnight convection
are expected to focus diurnally enhanced thunderstorms from portions
of the TN and lower MS Valleys into the Red River Valley Sunday
afternoon and early evening. In addition, the models indicate an MCV
originating from a large MCS ongoing as of late evening from
southwest MO into southeast OK and northeast TX will move into the
lower MS Valley by afternoon, potentially aiding in the thunderstorm
development there. The steepest lapse rates are forecast across the
southern High Plains with increasing boundary-layer moisture content
into the lower MS and TN Valleys, both of which will contribute to a
moderately unstable environment by afternoon across the pre-frontal
warm sector.
Vertical shear is expected to remain relatively weak across the warm
sector, which should limit the potential for storm organization. A
possible exception is if the outflow boundary stalls or retreats
into southern OK in closer proximity to stronger northwest flow
aloft. In that scenario, a corridor of higher supercell potential
could materialize, requiring higher hail probabilities and a level
2/Slight Risk. Aside from that scenario, pulse and multicell storms
appear likely with a risk for sporadic large hail and severe wind
gusts in the steeper lapse rate environment in the southern Plains
with mainly damaging winds expected in the lower MS and TN Valleys.
..Mead/Moore.. 07/05/2026
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