SPC Jul 30, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...IN
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND IN PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible this evening into the early overnight from parts of
northern Minnesota southwestward into the western Dakotas.
Additional severe gusts could occur in northern Florida and in parts
of the Intermountain West.

...Northern Minnesota/Dakotas/Western Nebraska...
A subtle shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the
northern High Plains. A sufficiently moist airmass is located ahead
of the trough from the central and western Dakotas, where surface
dewpoints are generally in the upper 50s and 60s F. Scattered strong
thunderstorms are ongoing near a gradient of moderate instability
from central North Dakota southwestward into western South Dakota.
Along this gradient, surface-temperature dewpoint spreads are
generally in the 30 to 40 degree F range, and the RAP has 0-3 km
lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This should support an
isolated potential for severe wind gusts early this evening. Hail
could also occur with the stronger cells. An isolated severe threat
could persist into the late evening and early overnight in parts of
northern North Dakota and northern Minnesota, as the shortwave
trough moves eastward across the region.

...Northern Florida...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough
along the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, an outflow boundary is
located across northern Florida, along which scattered thunderstorms
are ongoing. Surface dewpoints to the south of the outflow boundary
are mostly in the 70s F. This is contributing to moderate
instability, with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg
range. This thermodynamic environment may support a potential for
isolated severe gusts early this evening.

...Intermountain West...
A mid-level shortwave trough is currently evident on water vapor
imagery over southeastern Idaho. Scattered thunderstorms are being
supported by large-scale ascent associated with this trough. In
addition, a small pocket of instability is analyzed by the RAP over
southeast Idaho, where MLCAPE is around 1000 J/kg. The instability
combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates could support
isolated severe wind gusts early this evening.

..Broyles.. 07/30/2026


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SPC Jul 29, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening in the northern Plains. Severe wind gusts will
also be possible across southern Georgia and northern Florida, as
well as the Great Basin/northern Intermountain West.

...20Z Update...
The forecast appears to be on track, and minimal changes were needed
with this update. Southward-spreading storm clusters in southern
GA/northern FL will continue to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts
through the afternoon into this evening. Any areas of upscale growth
will pose the greatest severe-wind risk prior to the onset of
nocturnal boundary-layer cooling. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch #532
for more information.

Farther west over the northern Plains, a persistent cluster of
thunderstorms and related cloud coverage over eastern MT/western ND
cast uncertainty on the overall severe risk. However, as a
subtle/low-amplitude midlevel wave currently over central MT
overspreads the area, the ongoing activity and additional storm
development along differential heating zones could pose an
increasing risk of severe wind gusts and isolated hail into this
evening. See MCD #1797 for more details.

Additional thunderstorms forming along the high terrain from CO
northward into eastern WY may also pose some risk of strong-severe
wind gusts as storms move eastward into a warm/moist air mass over
the High Plains. However, the severe-wind risk will be largely
dependent on the development of robust cold pools and upscale
growth, and weak forcing for ascent limits confidence in where this
risk will be maximized.

..Weinman.. 07/29/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026/

...GA/FL...
Latest surface analysis shows a weak cold front sagging southward
across GA. A very moist and unstable air mass is present along and
south of the front, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and full heating
expected. This will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg
and scattered thunderstorm development. Sufficient northwesterly
mid-level flow of 15-25 knots will help storms propagate into north
FL by early evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible
in the stronger cells due to water loading and some momentum
transfer. If outflows can congeal, a more organized damaging wind
risk could develop late this afternoon and early evening before
weakening after dark.

...MT/ND...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along
a weak surface boundary near the MT/ND border. These storms will be
in a hot and moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE around 2000
J/kg. As this activity spreads northeastward across western ND, the
combination of a deep sub-cloud layer, steep low-level lapse rates,
and sufficient flow aloft will pose the risk of damaging wind gusts.


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SPC Jul 29, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening in the northern Plains. Severe wind gusts will
also be possible today across southern Georgia and northern Florida,
as well as the Great Basin/northern Intermountain West.

...Southeast States...
Near the base of the extensive eastern CONUS trough, a cold front
will slowly spread southward/stall regionally, with a moist and
unstable air mass to its south. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F will
contribute to an axis of strong instability by afternoon, with
MLCAPE likely reaching 3000+ J/kg with steep low-level lapse rates.
Damaging winds will be possible with the stronger storms, which
could include the development of some semi-organized clusters into
late afternoon/early evening.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
An approaching disturbance and weak height falls will develop into
the region later today, interfacing with an east-southeastward
moving front and somewhat sharpening the regional lee trough ahead
of it. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s F will contribute
to moderate instability as surface temperatures diurnally warm.
Low-level convergence along the front/lee trough will aid convective
initiation, with scattered thunderstorms moving eastward
across the western Dakotas during the late afternoon and early
evening. Large hail can be expected, and the high-based storms will
be capable of severe-caliber wind gusts, especially if storms
aggregate and cluster into the evening.

Farther east, a more conditional-type threat will exist diurnally
into northern Minnesota within a very unstable environment, but it
is a bit more probable that widely scattered storms develop into the
region tonight. If so, a few severe storms capable of wind/hail
could occur.

...Great Basin/northern Intermountain West...
A northeastward-transitioning shortwave trough and speed max, along
with diurnal heating, will influence thunderstorm development across
the region, including portions of southern/eastern Idaho and nearby
portions of northeast Nevada, northern Utah and southwest Montana.
Modestly enhanced mid-level winds and sufficient buoyancy/steep
lapse rates will support the potential for a few severe storms
capable of severe-caliber wind gusts and possibly some hail.

...Coastal southern New England...
Bands of semi-organized convection will move toward the coast
through the afternoon, preceding the offshore surface low/triple
point. Some stronger storms could materialize toward the coast with
gusts given the strengthening low-level winds, but current thinking
is the primary warm sector should remain offshore and limit the
severe potential.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/29/2026


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SPC Jul 29, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and possibly a tornado or
two are expected this evening from parts of the Mid-Atlantic
southward into the Carolinas and far northeastern Georgia. A few
severe wind gusts may also occur early this evening in parts of the
central High Plains.

...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Northeastern Georgia...
Water vapor imagery currently shows a mid-level trough extending
southward from the lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and
Carolinas. At the surface, a 1001 mb low is located over Maryland
with a cold front extending southwestward from the near the low into
the southern Appalachians. Moist air is present ahead of the front
with surface dewpoints in the 70s F. Scattered strong to severe
storms are ongoing across this moist airmass from Delaware southward
into eastern Virginia, central North Carolina and far northeastern
Georgia.

Along this corridor, the RAP shows an axis of moderate instability,
where MLCAPE is currently estimated to be in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg
range. Along and near the instability axis, WSR-88D VWPs from
Moorehead City, North Carolina west-southwestward into far northeast
Georgia have 0-6 km shear near 30 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative
helicity around 200 m2/s2. This environment will continue to support
a potential for supercells with an isolated tornado threat. This
threat should persist for another hour or two. In addition, RAP
forecast soundings near the instability axis have precipitable water
values around 2 inches, suggesting that the more organized line
segments could produce wet downbursts capable of severe gusts.

...Central High Plains...
A mid-level ridge is currently located over the central Rockies,
according to water vapor imagery. A subtle shortwave trough appears
to be moving through the ridge across central Colorado. Ahead of
this feature, large-scale ascent is supporting a broken line of
strong to severe storms from southwest Nebraska into far eastern
Colorado. The RAP currently has an axis of strong instability
analyzed from far southern Nebraska westward into far northeast
Colorado, along which MLCAPE is estimated in the 2000 to 4000 J/kg
range. As the storms move eastward into the strong instability over
the couple of hours, isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible.

..Broyles.. 07/29/2026


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