Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging
wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this afternoon/evening
across parts of west-central to central Texas. A couple of tornadoes
also appear possible across parts of west-central Texas along/near a
front.
...Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
Severe potential today will be complicated by ongoing thunderstorms
along/near the Red River and a convectively reinforced outflow
boundary across the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley. In general, a
favorable setup for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds
remains apparent this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central
into north TX to the south of current convective activity, along
with the potential for large to very large hail and perhaps a couple
of tornadoes with initial supercells that may develop.
Recent surface analysis shows a low over northwest TX, with a
dryline extending southward to the Big Bend region. A cold front
arcing northeastward from the low across western north TX into
southern OK and western/northern AR will likely serve as a focus for
additional robust thunderstorm development this afternoon. The
observed 12Z FWD sounding sampled the pre-convective airmass well,
with steep mid-level lapse rates atop a rather moist low-level
airmass aiding MUCAPE around 2500 J/kg.
There is some uncertainty regarding airmass recovery with eastward
extent towards the ArkLaTex given a notable outflow boundary from
earlier convection noted on latest visible satellite imagery
extending from north-central to east-central TX. Still, this
boundary seems to have stalled recently, with mostly clear skies to
its north across northeast TX ahead of ongoing thunderstorms in
north-central TX. Current expectations are for moderate to strong
instability to develop this afternoon as diurnal heating occurs
across west-central to north TX, with the greatest instability
focused south of the cold front/outflow and east of the dryline.
Stronger west-northwesterly mid-level flow associated with a
southeastward-moving shortwave trough may tend to remain displaced
along and slightly to the north of the cold front through the day.
Still, sufficient overlap of modestly enhanced mid-level winds and
related deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern portions of
the warm sector in TX. This shear should support some supercells
with initial development, particularly across parts of west-central
into north-central TX. Large to isolated very large hail (2+ inches)
may occur with these supercells, before convection quickly grows
upscale into an intense bowing cluster. A narrow zone of tornado
potential is also apparent with the supercells across parts of
west-central TX near the sagging front, where low-level shear will
be locally enhanced by east-northeasterly near-surface winds.
Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds are expected across much
of central TX after this mode transition occurs. With ample
instability and a highly organized cold pool expected, some of these
gusts could exceed 75 mph on a localized basis. The severe/damaging
wind threat should continue through the evening as the bowing
cluster spreads south-southeastward across much of TX. Eventual
weakening is forecast late tonight into early Monday morning,
although at least an isolated damaging wind threat may persist into
south/coastal TX through the end of the period.
Lower confidence in organized severe potential exists with eastward
extent into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley, as ongoing cloud cover
and outflow from earlier convection may inhibit diurnal heating and
the development of any more than weak instability this afternoon.
Still, some chance for redevelopment remains apparent along/east of
the cold front, so severe hail/wind probabilities have been
maintained with adjustments based on current observations and latest
short-term guidance.
...Central New Mexico into Far West Texas...
Low-level orographic ascent with the surging cold front should
support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing across
central NM into parts of far west TX this afternoon and evening.
Cool temperatures aloft will aid in the development of weak
instability, even with limited low-level moisture. Around 30-35 kt
of effective bulk shear should foster organized updrafts, with the
strongest cores capable of producing isolated hail and occasional
severe/damaging winds.
...Florida...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop along the
stalled front this afternoon across the northern FL Peninsula, and
southward along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Diurnal heating of a
moist low-level airmass, with MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg, should
support water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing locally
damaging winds. Sufficient deep-layer shear may also foster
sufficient updraft organization for isolated hail with the more
robust cores.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Strong to locally damaging winds may occur with high-based
convection that forms on the Appalachians/Blue Ridge this afternoon
and subsequently spreads east-northeastward along/ahead of a cold
front. While instability will remain weak, a deeply mixed boundary
layer should encourage gusty downdraft winds to reach the surface in
a narrow corridor where a Marginal Risk has been introduced.
..Gleason/Chalmers.. 05/10/2026
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