SPC Jun 13, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS...MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
central and southern Plains into the Missouri Valley. Swaths of
damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes are all
possible.

...Synopsis...
Within the base of a broad large-scale trough and accompanying belt
of strong midlevel westerlies over the northern CONUS, an embedded
positive-tilt midlevel trough will overspread the northern Plains
through the period. In the low-levels, a weak surface low will move
slowly eastward across western/central KS during the day, before
being overtaken by a cold front into the evening hours.

...Central/Southern Plains into the Missouri Valley...
At the start of the period, a cluster of elevated thunderstorms
should be tracking eastward from NE into IA -- along the nose of a
gradually weakening nocturnal low-level jet. Steep midlevel lapse
rates and 40-50 kt of effective shear will favor large hail with
this activity. At the same time, a convectively augmented midlevel
impulse and lingering convection should be advancing eastward from
eastern KS into MO. Diurnal heating of a moist air mass should favor
a gradual increase in convective coverage and intensity along
related outflow into the afternoon hours. Moderate surface-based
buoyancy and 30-40 kt of effective shear will support organized
clusters and potentially supercells structures, with a risk of
damaging wind gusts and large hail. Some guidance suggests that this
activity may grow upscale into one or more organized clusters while
moving east-southeastward into the evening hours.

Farther west, strong diurnal heating/steepening low-level lapse
rates preceding the surface low will result in scattered
thunderstorm development from the central Plains into the lower MO
Valley. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture
will yield a strongly unstable air mass, which combined with around
40 kt of effective shear, will favor organized clusters and
semi-discrete supercells. Large hail and locally severe wind gusts
will be the main concerns with initially semi-discrete storms. With
time, additional thunderstorm development is expected along the
southeastward-moving cold front. As a result, several
intense/organized clusters will spread east-southeastward through a
corridor of strong surface-based buoyancy -- posing an increasing
risk of scattered severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph). Despite the
expectation for upscale growth, embedded supercells will remain
possible, and given ample low-level shear and rich moisture, a
couple tornadoes will also be possible.

..Weinman.. 06/13/2026


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SPC Jun 12, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected
across parts of the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast,
mainly this afternoon and evening. Severe storms with a threat of
large hail and severe wind gusts will also be possible across parts
of the south-central High Plains.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with minimal changes required
to the existing probability lines based on ongoing convective trends
and recent model guidance. The primary outlook amendment was the
introduction of 5% hail probabilities across portions of eastern
Nebraska.

...Nebraska...
12z ensemble guidance hinted at thunderstorm development across
eastern NE during the 09-12 UTC period as a weak low-level cold
front impinges on a plume of northward returning moisture. More
recent runs of the RAP/RRFS/HRRR continue to show this potential and
depict a fairly robust thermodynamic environment featuring MUCAPE
values upwards of 4000 J/kg. 18 UTC RAOBS from the southern High
Plains and Rockies sampled steep mid-level lapse rates that will
advect eastward over the next 18 hours, and recent model solutions
appear to be capturing surface moisture return well. These trends
lend sufficient confidence to introduce a targeted hail risk area.

...Mississippi/Alabama...
5% wind probabilities were removed across northern MS/AL based on
recent radar trends, which depict the outflow boundary of a decaying
MCS rapidly progressing south and undercutting developing
convection. Strong buoyancy immediately downstream may support some
localized damaging wind threat through the afternoon, but latest
model guidance largely shows diminishing convective activity as the
outflow surges south.

..Moore.. 06/12/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026/

...Mid-Atlantic into New England this afternoon/evening...
Within the northern stream, a shortwave trough will progress
east-northeastward over the lower Great Lakes this
afternoon/evening, while an associated surface cold front moves
eastward into New England and southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic.
Forcing for ascent will not be particularly strong and the stronger
midlevel flow/deep-layer vertical shear will remain displaced to the
cool side of the front. Still, 25-30 kt midlevel flow will overlap
the warm sector this afternoon from northern Chesapeake Bay
northward into eastern NY. Strong surface heating is ongoing from
the Piedmont into VA/southern PA, with a few more cloud patches from
northeast PA into central NY. The net result will be moderate
buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) in an environment with steep
low-level lapse rates and weak upper flow, favoring multicell
clusters with occasional wind damage. The weak forcing for ascent
suggests that widely scattered, loosely organized clusters will be
possible this afternoon, with some gaps in the wind threat.

...Southern High Plains late this afternoon into early tonight...
Lee cyclogenesis across southeast CO will draw low-level moisture
northwestward into the southern High Plains as a stalled front
begins to lift northward across the TX Panhandle. Thunderstorm
development is expected this afternoon/evening with upslope flow
into the higher terrain of NM, and along the Raton Mesa. Deep-layer
vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for supercells
initially off Raton Mesa, with large hail the primary threat. Some
upscale growth and an increase in the potential for severe outflow
gusts is expected late this evening as storms spread eastward toward
southwest KS and the northern Panhandles in association with a
nocturnal low-level jet and strengthened warm advection/moisture
transport.

...Eastern KS/western MO early Saturday...
In response to low-level warm advection and returning moisture,
elevated convection is probable late in the period across eastern
KS/western MO. This area will be near the east edge of the steep
midlevel lapse rates, where isolated large hail will be possible.
There will also be some potential for evolution into a cluster or
two with isolated damaging gusts. Farther north into eastern NE
(very near the end of the period) there will be a chance for
elevated storms with some hail. This area will be re-evaluated this
afternoon in the 20z update.


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SPC Jun 12, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected
across parts of the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast,
mainly this afternoon and evening. Severe storms with a threat of
large hail and severe wind gusts will also be possible across parts
of the south-central High Plains.

...Mid-Atlantic into New England this afternoon/evening...
Within the northern stream, a shortwave trough will progress
east-northeastward over the lower Great Lakes this
afternoon/evening, while an associated surface cold front moves
eastward into New England and southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic.
Forcing for ascent will not be particularly strong and the stronger
midlevel flow/deep-layer vertical shear will remain displaced to the
cool side of the front. Still, 25-30 kt midlevel flow will overlap
the warm sector this afternoon from northern Chesapeake Bay
northward into eastern NY. Strong surface heating is ongoing from
the Piedmont into VA/southern PA, with a few more cloud patches from
northeast PA into central NY. The net result will be moderate
buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) in an environment with steep
low-level lapse rates and weak upper flow, favoring multicell
clusters with occasional wind damage. The weak forcing for ascent
suggests that widely scattered, loosely organized clusters will be
possible this afternoon, with some gaps in the wind threat.

...Southern High Plains late this afternoon into early tonight...
Lee cyclogenesis across southeast CO will draw low-level moisture
northwestward into the southern High Plains as a stalled front
begins to lift northward across the TX Panhandle. Thunderstorm
development is expected this afternoon/evening with upslope flow
into the higher terrain of NM, and along the Raton Mesa. Deep-layer
vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for supercells
initially off Raton Mesa, with large hail the primary threat. Some
upscale growth and an increase in the potential for severe outflow
gusts is expected late this evening as storms spread eastward toward
southwest KS and the northern Panhandles in association with a
nocturnal low-level jet and strengthened warm advection/moisture
transport.

...Eastern KS/western MO early Saturday...
In response to low-level warm advection and returning moisture,
elevated convection is probable late in the period across eastern
KS/western MO. This area will be near the east edge of the steep
midlevel lapse rates, where isolated large hail will be possible.
There will also be some potential for evolution into a cluster or
two with isolated damaging gusts. Farther north into eastern NE
(very near the end of the period) there will be a chance for
elevated storms with some hail. This area will be re-evaluated this
afternoon in the 20z update.

..Thompson/Chalmers.. 06/12/2026


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SPC Jun 12, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
APPALACHIANS...MID ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST...AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible
across parts of the Appalachians, Mid Atlantic, and Northeast,
mainly this afternoon and evening. Severe storms with a threat of
hail and severe gusts will also be possible across parts of the
south-central High Plains.

...Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast...
A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move
across Quebec later today, with weak midlevel height falls forecast
to extend south of this shortwave into parts of the Appalachians,
Northeast, and Mid Atlantic. The strongest deep-layer flow will
remain north of the international border, but modest effective shear
(generally 20-30 kt) will overlap relatively strong heating and
modest buoyancy across parts of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic.
Scattered outflow-driven clusters may develop with time and move
eastward, with an attendant threat of damaging wind and perhaps
isolated hail.

Deep-layer flow/shear will be even weaker into parts of the southern
Mid Atlantic/Carolinas vicinity. However, very strong heating of a
moist airmass will support potential for scattered thunderstorms
with downburst potential, and eventual evolution into loosely
organized clusters capable of damaging outflow winds from afternoon
into at least the early evening.

...South-central High Plains vicinity...
Moist southerly low-level flow beneath steepening midlevel lapse
rates will result in robust destabilization from the Raton Mesa
vicinity into the adjacent south-central High Plains, with MLCAPE
increasing to near/above 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Modest
westerly mid/upper-level flow will support effective shear of 30-35
kt, conditionally supportive of organized convection. Large-scale
ascent will remain subtle, but eventual storms may develop by late
afternoon near the higher terrain, and spread east-southeastward
with time.

Initial storms could evolve into isolated supercells, with a threat
of hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado.
Consolidating outflow and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet
will support some upscale growth during the evening, with an
attendant severe-wind threat expected to spread across parts of the
south-central High Plains.

Farther south, more isolated strong to severe storms will be
possible across parts of central/eastern NM into Far West TX, with a
threat of isolated hail and localized severe gusts.

...Upper Midwest...
Relatively low-topped convection may develop late this afternoon
from the eastern Dakotas into MN, as low-level lapse rates steepen
beneath seasonably cool temperatures aloft. Robust
west-northwesterly flow aloft will conditionally favor some storm
organization, if sufficient buoyancy can develop. However, most
guidance depicts MLCAPE generally below 500 J/kg, with an
inconsistent signal for where the deepest convection might develop.
Some threat for marginal hail and/or locally damaging wind could
evolve across some part of this region, and probabilities may be
needed if confidence increases regarding sufficient destabilization
and storm coverage.

...Parts of NE into western IA...
Elevated convection may develop late in the period from parts of NE
into western IA, within a warm-advection regime to the north of a
warm front. Guidance continues to vary regarding the magnitude of
elevated moistening/destabilization (which may be affected by MCS
development to the south across KS) and coverage of storms prior to
the end of the forecast period. Effective shear will be sufficient
for at least modest storm organization and an isolated hail threat,
if sufficient destabilization can occur. The aforementioned
uncertainties and likely very late timing of any severe threat
preclude the addition of hail probabilities at this time.

...Parts of OK/north TX...
In the wake of morning convection, robust redevelopment cannot be
ruled out across parts of OK/north TX, near a outflow-influenced
surface boundary. Guidance varies substantially regarding the
coverage/location of storms through mid morning, resulting in
considerable uncertainty. Moderate to strong buoyancy and modest
deep-layer shear could result in localized hail/wind potential, but
confidence in boundary placement and diurnal storm coverage is too
low for probabilities at this time.

..Dean/Weinman.. 06/12/2026


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