SPC Nov 14, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms capable of hail are possible this
afternoon and evening over a small part of West Texas.

...West TX...
A shortwave trough over central NM this morning will track eastward
into west TX this afternoon. As this occurs, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop across eastern NM/west TX in a marginally
unstable air mass. Visible satellite imagery continues to show
considerable cloud cover, suggesting convection will likely be
elevated. Nevertheless, steep mid level lapse rates, cold
temperatures aloft, and strong deep layer shear will support
occasional supercell structures capable of hail - mainly in the
Lubbock vicinity. A consensus of morning CAMS and ML guidance also
agree on this limited threat. Therefore have opted for a small MRGL
risk area for this afternoon and early evening.

..Hart/Dean.. 11/14/2026


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SPC Nov 14, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. today
and tonight.

...Eastern New Mexico and Texas...
A low-latitude shortwave trough extending across the Four Corners
area into northwest Mexico will continue eastward, reaching the
southern High Plains tonight. Preceding it, a relatively moist air
mass by mid-November standards will exist across the Texas coastal
Plain, and to a lesser extent, west-northwestward in vicinity of a
front into the Texas South Plains and far eastern New Mexico.

Multi-layer cloud cover and some precipitation will be prevalent
especially early today, but some late-day clearing is expected
across eastern New Mexico toward the Texas South Plains and Permian
Basin as the upper trough approaches the region. Low-topped
thunderstorm development/intensification is expected by mid/late
afternoon from eastern New Mexico into far west Texas. Cool thermal
profiles aloft, diurnally maximized lapse rates, and relatively long
hodographs could support some hail potential and/or gusty
thunderstorm winds, particularly should a more-optimistic, albeit
weak overall, destabilization scenario materialize. Areas including
far east-central New Mexico and the Texas South Plains/Low Rolling
Plains will be re-evaluated today for consideration of severe
probabilities.

Some stronger storms could sustain tonight, perhaps mainly on the
south end of a semi-organized cluster/band of storms, into parts of
the Texas Low Rolling Plains and Edwards Plateau. A low-level jet
will also be strengthening tonight and will enlarge low-level
hodographs across west-central/central Texas, but current thinking
is the cool nature of the boundary layer and limited buoyancy will
limit severe thunderstorm potential.

..Guyer/Mead.. 11/14/2026


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SPC Nov 14, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. today and tonight.

...Texas...

An upper trough will develop eastward from the Southwest to southern
Plains today. As this occurs, a 500 mb jet streak around 50-60 kt
will overspread western/central and southern TX. The left exit
region of the upper jet will coincide with a weak surface low
traversing northeast NM into the TX South Plains.
South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport modest boundary
layer moisture northward across central TX toward the South Plains
(mainly 50s F dewpoints) beneath cool temperatures aloft. Given cool
thermodynamic profiles, as surface temperatures also will remain
generally cool, instability will remain weak (500 J/kg MLCAPE or
less). While vertical shear could support some organized storm
structures, a lack of great buoyancy is expected to limit overall
severe potential across TX. However, given cool temperatures aloft
and the bulk of instability occurring between 850-500 mb within
otherwise favorable shear, small hail could occur from portions of
the TX Panhandle/South Plains toward central TX from late afternoon
into tonight.

..Leitman/Chalmers.. 11/14/2026


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SPC Nov 14, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S.
tonight.

...Synopsis...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue through the
evening and into tonight from portions of the Four Corners to
southwest TX, and across parts of the northern CA and OR coasts.
Weak instability and increasing boundary-layer inhibition with loss
of daytime heating will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.

..Leitman.. 11/14/2026


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