SPC Oct 26, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
While a strong thunderstorm or two may occur this afternoon across
far west Texas into southeast New Mexico, organized severe
thunderstorm potential should remain fairly low.

...20z Update...
Isolated thunderstorm development is ongoing along the Sacramento
Mountains in southeastern New Mexico and the Davis Mountains in West
Texas. Modestly cool temperatures aloft overlying moist low-levels
and surface temperatures ranging from the mid-60s to low-70s F are
supporting around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. While this may allow for
the development of a more robust updraft or two, stronger mid/upper
level flow has shifted eastward (per regional VWPs and 18z observed
soundings from ABQ/EPZ/AMA) in conjunction with the primary
mid-level shortwave trough now noted over the Texas Panhandle, which
is limiting effective shear to generally 30 kts or less across the
region. Thus, the severe threat continues to appear too
limited/isolated to warrant the inclusion of severe probabilities
with this outlook update. See the discussion below for additional
details.

..Chalmers.. 10/26/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026/

...Far West Texas/Southeast New Mexico...
Widespread cloudiness remains over much of the southern High Plains
as of late morning, with the primary mid-level shortwave trough over
the central Rockies expected to move northeastward across the
central/northern Plains through tonight. Another weak, low-amplitude
shortwave trough will continue to advance northeastward over the
southern High Plains this afternoon. This feature should aid
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across this region in
the 20-22Z time frame. Modest heating of moist low levels coupled
with cool temperatures aloft should support around 500-1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE, with the greatest instability forecast across far west
TX/southeast NM where some clearing has occurred. However, mid-level
flow and related deep-layer shear should both remain fairly modest
(generally 20-25 kt or less). While a stronger thunderstorm or two
may develop this afternoon, the overall severe hail/wind threat
still appears too limited/isolated to justify including low severe
probabilities with this update.


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SPC Oct 26, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
While a strong thunderstorm or two may occur this afternoon across
far west Texas into southeast New Mexico, organized severe
thunderstorm potential should remain fairly low.

...Far West Texas/Southeast New Mexico...
Widespread cloudiness remains over much of the southern High Plains
as of late morning, with the primary mid-level shortwave trough over
the central Rockies expected to move northeastward across the
central/northern Plains through tonight. Another weak, low-amplitude
shortwave trough will continue to advance northeastward over the
southern High Plains this afternoon. This feature should aid
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across this region in
the 20-22Z time frame. Modest heating of moist low levels coupled
with cool temperatures aloft should support around 500-1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE, with the greatest instability forecast across far west
TX/southeast NM where some clearing has occurred. However, mid-level
flow and related deep-layer shear should both remain fairly modest
(generally 20-25 kt or less). While a stronger thunderstorm or two
may develop this afternoon, the overall severe hail/wind threat
still appears too limited/isolated to justify including low severe
probabilities with this update.

..Gleason/Halbert.. 10/26/2026


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SPC Oct 26, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm are not expected Monday.

... Synopsis ...

Broad upper troughing will remain in place across the western
contiguous US today. Within this regime, a shortwave trough over the
southern and central High Plains will eject northeastward toward the
upper Mississippi Valley, accompanied by a weak surface low. A
trailing cold front will extend southwestward from this low across
the central Plains into the southern High Plains, with a lee trough
sharpening along its western flank. Farther west, an upper cyclone
will deepen as it digs southeastward across the northern Great Basin
and Intermountain West.

... Southern High Plains into the Midwest ...

Surface dewpoints in the mid 50Fs to near 60 F will remain in place
ahead of the slow-moving baroclinic zone/surface boundary today.
Diurnal heating of this modestly moist boundary layer will yield
weak destabilization from southern and eastern New Mexico and Far
West Texas northeastward into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and
southwest Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms may develop along the front
and lee trough during the late afternoon and evening, with
additional development probable farther northeast into the Midwest
overnight as low-level warm air advection strengthens.

Buoyancy will be somewhat greater across southern New Mexico and Far
West Texas, where a few stronger cores could produce hail or gusty
winds. Even there, modest deep-layer shear and warm/warming midlevel
temperatures in the wake of the departing midlevel trough should
limit updraft intensity and organization. Thus, severe probabilities
are currently not warranted.

... Idaho and surrounding areas ...

Cooling midlevel temperatures and large-scale ascent accompanying
the digging upper cyclone will steepen lapse rates across Idaho and
adjacent areas during the afternoon. Despite limited moisture,
sufficient buoyancy may materialize to support isolated low-topped
thunderstorms during the afternoon and into the evening. Strong flow
aloft could support locally gusty winds, and hail could accompany
stronger thunderstorm cores. The cool surface temperatures and
limited instability should limit any severe threat.

..Marsh/Thornton.. 10/26/2026


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SPC Oct 25, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW MEXICO
INTO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and
tonight from New Mexico into Far West Texas and the western Texas
Panhandle. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts as well as a
tornado or two are possible in these areas.

...20z Update...
Latest surface observations and objective analysis indicate that
warming surface temperatures (mid-70s F) amid low-60s F dewpoints
are supporting greater buoyancy across portions of southeastern New
Mexico/West Texas. This relatively greater buoyancy (compared to
areas farther north and west) may support a locally greater severe
risk across these regions this afternoon/evening given the
overlapping presence of effective shear of 30-40+ kts. No changes
were made to the existing outlook with this update as overall
expectations for the severe risk remain generally unchanged. See the
discussion below and MCD #2409 for additional short-term details.

..Chalmers.. 10/25/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026/

...NM into Far West TX...
Recent satellite imagery shows the persistent western CONUS upper
cyclone has trended towards a more open wave structure. Mesoanalysis
places two closed mid-level circulations/cold cores within this
troughing, one over northeast UT and the other over central AZ.
Expectation is for this system to further its evolution into an open
wave as it ejects northeastward across the Four Corners and into the
central Rockies. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will persist
throughout the eastern/southeastern periphery of this wave over NM
today.

Showers and thunderstorms currently ongoing within the warm conveyor
downstream of the cyclone across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle are
forecast to shift northeastward throughout the day. This activity is
expected to remain displaced east of the better low-level moisture
and associated buoyancy. Modest airmass destabilization is
anticipated farther west across northern/central NM where the
mid-level cold pocket interacts with the western edge of residual
low-level moisture. Hail appears likely within any of the deeper and
more persistent updrafts. However, given the limited buoyancy, this
hail is expected to remain largely sub severe with only isolated
instances of hail greater than 1" in diameter.

More destabilization is anticipated farther south (i.e. from
south-central/southeast NM into far west TX). Here, upper 50s
dewpoints will support afternoon MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg amid about
30 kt of effective vertical shear. Filtered heating will support
steeper low-level lapse rates as well. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible, with large hail and strong gusts as the
primary threat. Afternoon/evening thunderstorms are also possible
along a weak baroclinic zone from east-central NM into the
northwestern TX Panhandle. Buoyancy will be less here than areas
farther south, but the frontal influence coupled with slightly
stronger vertical shear could result in a supercell or two. Primary
hazard with this activity appears to be hail, but a brief tornado is
also possible.

Lastly, additional thunderstorms will remain possible throughout the
evening and overnight across far west TX (and potentially adjacent
parts of southeast NM) as low-level southeasterly flow strengthens
tonight. Moderate buoyancy and shear will persist, suggesting hail
is possible with the strongest storms.


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