Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW MEXICO...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two
are possible across portions of New Mexico and southern Colorado
today into tonight.
An elongated western US trough will drift eastward today as the
primary vort max is forecast to lift northeastward across the Great
Basin into the northern Rockies through tonight. A secondary
shortwave perturbation will round the base of the trough and
approach coastal southern CA. Despite the fragmented nature of the
upper trough, mid-level meridional flow will remain fairly strong
from portions of northern Mexico to the Canadian border. Ascent
associated with both perturbations and the strong flow crossing the
higher terrain will aid in developing a lee cyclone across eastern
MT. A trailing lee trough will connect to a second, much weaker,
cyclone over southern NM and northern Senora. This will support
modest northward return of unseasonably robust moisture, and
subsequent destabilization across NM and the southern High Plains
favorable for strong to severe storms.
...New Mexico and southern Colorado...
Remnant showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are likely to be
ongoing early this morning across the higher terrain of northern NM
and southern CO. The impact this convection and cloud debris will
have on later convective development is somewhat uncertain.
Regardless, mid-level ascent, persistent upslope flow and continued
advection of 50-60 F surface dewpoints should result in adequate
destabilization (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) by early afternoon across
southern CO and northern NM. Subsequent development and
intensification of multiple rounds of thunderstorms are likely, with
organization into supercells and clusters expected, owing to
elongated and fairly straight hodographs. Hail will be the primary
risk, with isolated strong gusts possible as well. However, some
veering in the low-levels, aided by terrain-induced backing of the
flow and moist low-levels could support a low-probability tornado
risk with the strongest supercells.
Farther south more robust diurnal heating is expected to develop
where clearing should be more prominent. Afternoon MLCAPE of
1000-2000 J/kg is likely to exist amidst the strong wind fields.
While low-level flow is expected to remain more veered with the
weaker surface pressure response, straight hodographs and effective
shear greater than 40 kt will still favor splitting supercells.
Large hail (some 2+ inch) is possible. The deeper mixing, especially
with eastward extent in southern NM and far west TX, may also
support some damaging/severe gust potential if storms remain higher
based.
...High Plains...
A more isolated severe risk could develop within the foothills and
adjacent high Plains of southeastern CO where modest buoyancy,
increasingly strong flow aloft, and steeper low-level lapse rates
will exist. Convection emanating from the higher terrain could
persist into the drier and more deeply mixed air mass beginning mid
to late afternoon, enhancing downdrafts and damaging gust potential.
The degree of organization/intensity of these storms is uncertain,
but 5% wind probabilities have been added.
..Lyons/Thornton.. 10/23/2026
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