SPC Nov 10, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Synopsis and Discussion...

A progressive and amplifying polar branch of westerlies is forecast
over the northern CONUS Tuesday and Tuesday night. Within that air
stream, a short-wave trough will move through the Northeast, while
an upstream system intensifies over the northern Plains and Upper
Midwest. Meanwhile, a lower-latitude system over TX is expected to
de-amplify while advancing into the lower MS Valley. At the surface,
a lee cyclone and attending trough initially over the High Plains
will shift east through the northern and central Plains into the
Midwest, in tandem with the previously mentioned upper-air system.
Increasing southerly flow ahead of that frontal system will support
the poleward advance of a partially modified continental-polar air
mass from the southern Plains into the Ozarks.

Isolated thunderstorms appear possible along the middle TX Coast
Tuesday morning, and from the middle TX Coast into southern LA
Tuesday night, within a zone of low-level warm advection and weak
instability preceding the midlevel wave. Along the Pacific Northwest
Coast, moist onshore flow coupled with a slight steepening of
midlevel lapse rates will yield weak instability and the potential
for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Over
south FL, slight cooling aloft will combine with a moist PBL to
yield MUCAPE of around 1000 J/kg by afternoon when isolated
thunderstorms appear possible.

Elsewhere, isolated lightning strikes appear possible over northern
or central TX, northern New England, and perhaps the eastern Dakotas
Tuesday afternoon into evening. Lightning duration and coverage in
those areas appear too limited to warrant general thunderstorm/10%
probability contours.

..Mead.. 11/10/2026


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SPC Nov 10, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2026

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

...Pacific Northwest...

Within the southern fringe of a broader precipitation band preceding
a vigorous short-wave trough, embedded convective elements
sufficiently deep for lightning generation have recently moved onto
the OR coast. Modification of the 00Z UIL sounding for a slightly
warmer and more moist PBL farther to the south yields a narrow CAPE
profile extending upwards into the -10 to -20 C layer with MUCAPE of
a few hundred J/kg, which is consistent with the lightning
observations. A similar thermodynamic environment is expected to
spread inland this evening into tonight, supporting the continuation
of sporadic lightning occurrences. Turbulent downward mixing of
stronger flow aloft may yield a few strong wind gusts; however,
severe weather is not expected.

...Portions of Deep South Texas to the middle Texas Coast....

As of 00Z, the most vigorous convection was located offshore to the
southeast of Brownsville, within a zone of stronger surface-based
buoyancy. Farther north along the lower to middle TX Coast, a modest
low-level warm-advection regime is expected to persist overnight, in
which a few elevated thunderstorms will remain possible amidst a
marginally unstable environment (per 00Z BRO/CRP soundings).

..Mead.. 11/10/2026


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SPC Nov 9, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Recent satellite imagery shows an elongated upper low centered over
the TX Big Bend vicinity. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are
currently ongoing within the broad warm-air advection regime
downstream of this low from central and south TX across much of the
TX Coastal Plains into southeast TX. 12Z BRO and CRP soundings
sampled a seasonally moist airmass characterized by PW values over
1.8" and poor lapse rates. General expectation is for showers and
elevated thunderstorms to continue throughout the day while
diminishing in strength and intensity as an embedded shortwave
trough continues northeastward. The warm sector, which is
characterized by upper 60s dewpoints, is forecast to remain largely
offshore as the associated surface low drifts very slowly eastward.
These factors should all act to keep the overall severe weather
threat very low.

Guidance also suggests a fast-moving shortwave trough will progress
through the Pacific Northwest this afternoon/evening, with the
primary frontal band arriving close to 00Z. Occasional lightning
flashes may occur with this activity, as mid-level temperatures will
be fairly cold, but most of the convection should be shallow.
Enhanced southwesterly flow will exist across the region, but the
limited instability and shallow storm depth should limit the risk
for severe gusts.

..Mosier/Moore.. 11/09/2026


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SPC Nov 9, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Generally elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across
parts of south TX to the north of a weak inverted surface trough.
This convection is being aided by large-scale ascent and modest
low-level warm advection occurring ahead of a weak upper trough over
west TX/northern Mexico. Weak MUCAPE and poor lapse rates aloft are
expected to limit the severe threat this morning (reference the 12Z
observed CRP/BRO soundings). Also, the potential for surface-based
thunderstorms over land appears lower than yesterday, and any
stronger thunderstorms should tend to focus offshore through the
morning into early afternoon.

Another fast-moving upper trough is forecast to overspread the
Pacific Northwest this afternoon through tonight. Surface dewpoints
in the upper 40s to low 50s and filtered daytime heating should
allow MUCAPE up to 100-300 J/kg to develop along/ahead of a
low-topped band of convection expected to move quickly eastward
across coastal WA/OR this afternoon. Occasional lightning flashes
may occur with this activity, as mid-level temperatures will be
fairly cold. While strong low/mid-level winds veering with height
appear conditionally favorable for organized updrafts, the meager
instability should tend to limit the risk for severe gusts.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/09/2026


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