SPC Nov 29, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated tonight.

...Synopsis...
Evening water-vapor imagery shows a weak shortwave trough over the
Plains moving eastward ahead of a second, more intense, upper trough
over the central and northern Rockies. As the primary trough
intensifies to the west, the increases in west/southwesterly
midlevel flow will help deep a surface low moving from eastern
CO/western KS into OK tonight. The southerly winds will allow modest
northward moisture return tonight across parts of the southern
Plains and Ozarks.

As the surface low strengthens with the approach of the western
trough this evening and overnight, low-level warm advection should
also intensify. Strong isentropic ascent atop the cool and
relatively dry boundary-layer over the southern Plains should
support increasing coverage of showers and elevated thunderstorms
already ongoing from central and western North TX into OK and
eventually the lower MO Valley/Ozarks. With meager buoyancy aloft
(MUCAPE 500 J/kg or less) the potential for stronger updrafts
appears quite limited despite increasingly robust deep-layer shear
profiles. While a stronger storm or two with the potential for small
hail cannot be completely ruled out, severe potential remains very
low.

..Lyons.. 11/29/2025


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SPC Nov 28, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are anticipated today/tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more info.

..Thornton.. 11/28/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025/

...Southern Plains vicinity...

A midlevel shortwave impulse will eject across the southern Rockies
into the southern Plains today ahead of a stronger upper trough
digging southeast from the northern Rockies into much of the Great
Plains tonight. Resulting increases in west/southwesterly midlevel
flow will overspread weak northward moisture return across TX as a
surface low develops/modestly deepens over KS/OK.

Showers will increase today into tonight from central TX, north and
east across portions of the Plains into the Ozarks. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible this evening and tonight as midlevel
temperatures cool and lapse rates modestly steepen. However, meager
boundary layer moisture will limit instability, with forecast
soundings generally indicating 500 J/kg or less MUCAPE. Severe
potential appears low given expected modest updrafts
intensity/longevity.


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SPC Nov 28, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are anticipated today.

...Southern Plains...
Morning water vapor imagery shows the upper ridge that has dominated
the weather over the southwest states is rapidly breaking down, as a
strong upper trough over OR approaches the Rockies. Large-scale
height falls and increasing low-level warm/moist advection will
result in marginal instability over TX and the development of
scattered thunderstorms later today.

Convection has already begun to form over the Big Bend region of TX
this morning. Thunderstorms will further develop over west TX
through early afternoon, then expand eastward into parts of OK and
central TX this evening. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates
will be present over the central/southern Plains, but limited
moisture return will generally keep CAPE values below 1000 J/kg and
limit updraft strength/severe potential. Nevertheless, the
strongest storms this evening could produce small hail.

..Hart/Dean.. 11/28/2025


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SPC Nov 28, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
nation tonight.

...01Z Update...
Drying and stabilizing trends are now well underway across
southeastern Florida coastal areas and the Keys, where
lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields have veered to northwesterly.

Some lightning was noted earlier in a convective band within
west-southwesterly low-level flow emanating from Lake Ontario, where
trajectories across the relatively warm lake waters are maximized.
Additional convection occasionally becoming capable of producing
lightning appears possible to the east of Lake Ontario through at
least 05-06Z, before this potential becomes more negligible as mean
lower/mid-tropospheric winds begin to veer to a more
westerly/northwesterly component.

..Kerr.. 11/28/2025


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