SPC May 22, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and isolated severe
wind gusts will continue across parts of the central and southern
High Plains evening. A tornado may also occur in the central High
Plains.

...Central and Southern High Plains...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough
extending southward from the northern High Plains into the central
Rockies, with another smaller-scale trough located in the central
High Plains. At the surface, a low is located over southeast
Colorado with a trough extending southward into eastern New Mexico.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are ongoing in northeast Colorado. A
severe line segment is also ongoing from far southwest Kansas
south-southwestward into the far northwestern Texas Panhandle. These
storms are located along and near an axis of moderate instability,
where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Moderate
deep-layer shear is analyzed along the axis of instability. The
Goodland WSR-88D VWP has 0-6km shear near 50 knots, which will
support a threat for supercells this evening. The stronger storms
will be capable of producing large hail and isolated severe wind
gusts...see MCDs 821 and 819.

Further south into the southern High Plains, two areas of scattered
strong thunderstorms are ongoing. The first is west of Lubbock from
far eastern New Mexico into west Texas. The second is in the western
Texas Hill Country. The storms are located along an axis of moderate
instability. Along this axis, deep-layer shear appears sufficient
for an isolated severe threat early this evening.

..Broyles.. 05/22/2026


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SPC May 21, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO....

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and isolated severe
gusts should occur across parts of the central/southern High Plains
this afternoon and evening. A tornado or two may also occur.

...High Plains...
Water vapor imagery shows an upper trough moving across western
WY/CO. This feature will spread weak/broad large scale forcing for
ascent across much of the High Plains from SD to NM this afternoon.
At the surface, southerly low level winds have resulted in an axis
of 40s/50s dewpoints along this corridor. Low clouds are slowly
eroding, which should result in moderate CAPE values and aid in the
development of widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms.

Isolated storms will likely form first over parts of eastern NM.
This activity will build slowly eastward toward west TX with a risk
of large hail.

By mid/late afternoon, storms will likely develop off the Raton and
Palmer ridges, spreading eastward toward western KS this evening.
Shear profiles in this area will be stronger than farther south,
supporting longer-lived storms capable of large hail, damaging
winds, and perhaps a tornado or two.

An isolated cell or two may also produce occasional severe hail over
parts of eastern WY and into the Black Hills region later this
afternoon.

...Carolinas/VA...
Clear skies are leading to strong heating over parts of southern VA
into part of NC/SC. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected
to form in this zone, with steep low-level lapse rates and
sufficient CAPE supporting a risk of gusty/damaging winds in the
strongest cells.

..Hart/Lyons.. 05/21/2026


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SPC May 21, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and isolated severe
gusts should occur across parts of the central/southern High Plains
this afternoon and evening. A tornado or two may also occur.

...Central/Southern High Plains into South Texas...
Within large-scale upper troughing over the northern Rockies/Great
Basin, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet
will translate southeastward across the central Rockies and adjacent
High Plains this afternoon and evening. Forcing for ascent preceding
this feature will encourage initial isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of central CO by
mid afternoon. A weak southern-stream perturbation should also
foster scattered convection farther south across the southern High
Plains as well.

The airmass across the central/southern High Plains should gradually
destabilize today, as modest moisture in a persistent low-level
upslope flow regime continues streaming northwestward across these
regions beneath steepened mid-level lapse rates. Weak to moderate
instability is forecast to be in place by mid afternoon, with
sufficient deep-layer shear for a mix of multicells and supercells.
Initial development should pose a threat for large hail, before
eventual clustering this evening potentially results in a greater
threat for severe winds. The primary change with this update was to
expand the Marginal Risk across parts of west into south TX, where
any convection which develops eastward may pose an isolated
hail/wind threat this afternoon through tonight.

...Southern Virginia into North Carolina...
Daytime heating south of a cold front should help steepen low-level
lapse rates across parts of southern VA into NC by this afternoon.
While both mid-level flow and lapse rates are expected to remain
fairly modest across this area, an isolated threat for damaging
winds may exist with loosely organized clusters that can develop
along the higher terrain and/or sagging cold front this afternoon.

...Coastal Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Another expansive MCS has moved offshore from the lower TX Coast
this morning. Generally weak offshore surface flow continues across
the middle/upper TX Coast into southern LA. Eventually, a more
southerly component to the low-level winds may encourage greater
low-level moisture to advance inland later today across parts of the
lower MS Valley. While a couple of stronger thunderstorms with gusty
winds appear possible, modest mid-level flow and poor lapse rates
aloft should tend to limit the overall severe threat.

..Gleason/Marsh.. 05/21/2026


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SPC May 21, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with hail and strong wind gusts will be
possible across parts of west and southwest Texas this evening.
Isolated severe gusts may also occur in south-central Texas in the
late evening and early overnight period.

...West, Southwest and South-central Texas...
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident over far west Texas.
Large-scale ascent associated with the trough is providing support
for scattered thunderstorm development early this evening. The
storms are located near a quasi-stationary front extending eastward
from near Fort Stockton into the Texas Hill Country. To the south of
the front, surface dewpoints are mostly in the mid to upper 60s F.
The RAP suggests that MLCAPE ranges from around 1000 J/kg near the
front to about 2500 J/kg in the lower Rio Grande Valley southeast of
Del Rio. As the shortwave trough moves into west-central Texas over
the next few hours, new convection is expected to initiate from the
far western Texas Hill Country into southwest Texas. In addition to
moderate instability, the Del Rio 00Z sounding has 0-6 km shear
around 30 knots with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 7.5 C/km.
This environment will support isolated severe storm development.
Rotating cells should be capable of isolated large hail. A few
severe wind gusts could also occur. The potential for isolated
severe gusts may continue after midnight across parts of
south-central Texas, as a convective cluster crosses the Rio Grande
River.

..Broyles.. 05/21/2026


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