Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 PM CST Wed Feb 04 2026
Valid 050100Z - 051200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms probabilities across the U.S. appear less than 10
percent tonight.
...01Z Update...
Larger-scale mid-level troughing may take on a bit less of a
positive tilt while approaching the southern Atlantic Seaboard later
tonight, as the most vigorous embedded short wave perturbation
begins to pivot eastward after digging into the northwestern Gulf
coast vicinity. However, colder mid-level temperatures are forecast
to continue to lag to the northwest and west of the associated
surface cold front, which may overspread much of northern Florida
and the west central peninsula by 12Z Thursday. Forecast soundings
suggest that lower/mid-tropospheric moistening and forcing for
large-scale ascent along and ahead of the front may contribute to a
layer of weak destabilization supportive of heavier showers into and
across the Greater Tampa vicinity, and perhaps much of the I-4
corridor, late tonight. However, given relatively warm equilibrium
(and likely cloud top) temperatures, the potential for lightning
appears low.
..Kerr.. 02/05/2026
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