SPC Jan 31, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today through
tonight.

...Synopsis...
Long-wave troughing will persist across the eastern CONUS as an
embedded shortwave trough steadily intensifies off the East Coast.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely off the GA/Carolina
coast as an attendant surface cyclone intensifies; however, the warm
sector of the low will remain well offshore, precluding the
potential for thunderstorms over land. Elsewhere, seasonally cool
conditions across the central CONUS and upper ridging over the West
will further nullify thunderstorm development.

..Moore/Wendt.. 01/31/2026


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SPC Jan 31, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Valid 310100Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...Synopsis...
Dry and stable conditions remain prevalent across the CONUS based on
latest surface observations and recent 00z RAOBs, and will preclude
thunderstorm development. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected overnight well east of the Carolina coast as a cyclone
continues to intensify, but these are not expected to impact land.

..Moore.. 01/31/2026


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SPC Jan 30, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Valid 302000Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track.

..Squitieri.. 01/30/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough will amplify over the central/eastern
CONUS through tonight. In response, a surface low will gradually
deepen and develop northeastward along/near the Gulf Stream, while
remaining offshore of the Carolinas. Any thunderstorms associated
with the warm sector of the surface cyclone should also remain
offshore. A separate mid-level shortwave trough will overspread
parts of the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia today. While
showers/bands of precipitation are forecast to move inland,
negligible instability is expected to limit thunderstorm potential.


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SPC Jan 30, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0556 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Discussion...
A large-scale trough will consolidate/amplify over the eastern half
of the CONUS through the period. In response, a surface cyclone will
evolve northeastward along the Gulf Stream -- remaining offshore of
the Carolinas. Any thunderstorms accompanying the surface cyclone
should also remain offshore.

..Weinman.. 01/30/2026


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