SPC Nov 14, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. today and tonight.

...Texas...

An upper trough will develop eastward from the Southwest to southern
Plains today. As this occurs, a 500 mb jet streak around 50-60 kt
will overspread western/central and southern TX. The left exit
region of the upper jet will coincide with a weak surface low
traversing northeast NM into the TX South Plains.
South/southeasterly low-level flow will transport modest boundary
layer moisture northward across central TX toward the South Plains
(mainly 50s F dewpoints) beneath cool temperatures aloft. Given cool
thermodynamic profiles, as surface temperatures also will remain
generally cool, instability will remain weak (500 J/kg MLCAPE or
less). While vertical shear could support some organized storm
structures, a lack of great buoyancy is expected to limit overall
severe potential across TX. However, given cool temperatures aloft
and the bulk of instability occurring between 850-500 mb within
otherwise favorable shear, small hail could occur from portions of
the TX Panhandle/South Plains toward central TX from late afternoon
into tonight.

..Leitman/Chalmers.. 11/14/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TWKclh

SPC Nov 14, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S.
tonight.

...Synopsis...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue through the
evening and into tonight from portions of the Four Corners to
southwest TX, and across parts of the northern CA and OR coasts.
Weak instability and increasing boundary-layer inhibition with loss
of daytime heating will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.

..Leitman.. 11/14/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TWKWYM

SPC Nov 13, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1014 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S.
today or tonight.

...Southeast AZ...
A strong shortwave trough is rotating across northwest Mexico. This
feature will affect southern AZ, providing increasing large scale
ascent and steep lapse rates through the afternoon and evening.
Visible satellite imagery suggests rather widespread cloud cover
will affect much of southern AZ, and low-level moisture is limited.
These factors should keep MLCAPE values below 500 J/kg. Winds aloft
are also relatively weak. While organized severe storms appear
unlikely today, scattered showers and thunderstorms will track
across the region, with some concern for a few strong wind gusts in
the more intense cells.

...Northern CA...
A strong cold front has moved inland across northern CA, with
intense low and mid level wind fields accompanying the front. No
lightning has been observed with the line thus far, and
thermodynamic profiles remain quite weak. Nevertheless, strong wind
gusts may accompany the shallow convective line, and even an
orographically-induced brief tornado is possible - mainly through
mid afternoon.

..Hart/Halbert-E.. 11/13/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TWKP31

SPC Nov 13, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S.
today or tonight.

...Southwest States including southern Arizona...
A southern-stream shortwave trough near the SoCal/northern Baja
coast will continue generally eastward along the international
border, while a more prominent upper trough amplifies a bit more
along the West Coast toward the Great Basin. Ahead of the southern
stream trough, isolated thunderstorm development will become more
probable by late morning into the afternoon across southern Arizona
as forcing for ascent overspreads a modestly moist/unstable boundary
layer.

A few stronger low-topped storms could develop/spread
north-northeastward into south-central/southeast Arizona by around
mid-afternoon. Some small hail and/or gusty winds are plausible, but
current thinking is that organized severe thunderstorm potential
will be curbed by a trend of weakening low/mid-tropospheric flow
into this afternoon (effective shear 25 kt or less), along with the
relatively cool thermal profiles and perceived limitations on
downdraft intensity. A bit later in the day, a somewhat stronger
combination of deep-layer winds and lapse rates/buoyancy could also
contribute to some stronger storm potential toward the Rio Grande
River valley of southern New Mexico and far west Texas, but overall
severe potential should remain low.

Across northern California, while lightning flash potential will
likely remain limited, some convective enhancement to the
inland-spreading precipitation may influence some stronger
near-coastal wind gusts. Additional low-topped convection is
expected as lapse rates steepen within the post-frontal environment
later today for near-coastal areas and possibly parts of the
interior valley.

..Guyer/Mead.. 11/13/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TWK8Pt