SPC May 6, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening from central Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible across portions of central Mississippi and Alabama
before a shift to a more of a damaging wind risk into the late
evening/overnight.

...TX/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast...
A corridor of strong mid to high-level west-southwesterly flow
extends from TX into the central and southern Appalachians to the
southeast of a larger-scale positively tilted trough with embedded
shortwaves. Morning surface mesoanalysis depicted a cold front
slowly moving southward across south-central TX through northern MS
and into the southern Appalachians. South of the boundary, a
quasi-zonal flow regime with little mid-level height change is
expected through tonight. A moist airmass maintained by southerly
flow will yield surface dewpoints ranging from the mid-upper 60s to
lower to mid 70s deg F south of the front. Despite extensive cloud
cover owing to the moist boundary layer (reference the 16 g/kg
lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios from the 12 UTC Lake Charles and
Slidell, LA raobs), heating and persistent weak low-level warm
advection will combine to erode convective inhibition and yield
scattered storms developing later this afternoon. Moderately steep
mid-level lapse rates and seasonably rich moisture/PW will support
strong buoyancy ahead of the front (i.e. 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE) over
LA/MS. Gradual intensification of storms in the moist environment
will likely result in several strong supercells eventually
developing late this afternoon through the evening. Large to very
large hail, damaging gusts, and tornadoes will be possible with the
stronger storms. The tornado risk is forecast to peak late this
afternoon through the evening as southwesterly 850-mb flow
strengthens from 25 kt to 35-40 kt. Environmental conditions support
the potential for a strong tornado during this timeframe. Whether
or not storms can realize this increasing low-level shear will
largely be a function of storm mode. Storms should eventually begin
to cluster and to grow upscale, with an increasing damaging wind
threat continuing downstream into Alabama and Georgia.

The front will continue slowly southward, and the very moist
environment could support additional warm sector storms throughout
much of the evening and overnight, supporting a continued risk for
all severe hazards, perhaps extending into northern GA and Upstate
SC late tonight.

..Smith/Thompson.. 05/06/2026


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SPC May 6, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible across portions of central Mississippi and Alabama
before a shift to a more of a damaging wind risk into the late
evening/overnight.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of phased shortwave
troughs, one in the northern stream moving southward into UT/CO and
the other in southern stream off the southern CA/northern Baja
coast. Strong, confluent flow aloft exists downstream of these
shortwaves, with an extensive fetch of moderate to strong
southwesterly flow extending from northern Mexico into the
Northeast. A general deepening of the upper troughing is anticipated
throughout the day as the northern-stream shortwave continues
southeastward while the southern-stream shortwave moves gradually
eastward. This evolution will result in strengthening mid to upper
level flow from the southern Plain into New England, particularly
from the Lower MO Valley through the OH Valley where 500 mb flow
could exceed 100 kt. This evolution will also push a cold front,
which currently extends from the TX Hill Country into western PA,
farther south.

There will be some displacement between the strongest flow aloft and
the more warm and moist conditions south of the front. However,
even with this displacement, moderate to strong upper/mid flow is
still expected across much of the southern Plains and Southeast.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected along and ahead of
this cold front from the TX Hill Country through the Southeast and
into the Carolinas. Highest coverage of severe thunderstorms will be
from central MS into central AL, where supercells capable of all
hazards will be possible.

...East TX/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast...
Recent surface analysis placed the cold front from near JCT in the
TX Hill Country northeastward through the Arklatex, northern MS, and
western TN. A weak low exists along this boundary over the western
AR/LA vicinity. 70s dewpoints extend from south TX across LA into
far western MS and southern AR, with upper 60s dewpoints through
much of MS. Low-level moisture advection is expected to continue
throughout the day, with mid 70s dewpoints possible from central LA
into central MS by the afternoon. This increasing moisture amid
filtered daytime heating will result in strong buoyancy ahead of the
front (i.e. 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE), despite poor mid-level lapse
rates. Also, as mentioned in the synopsis, strong deep-layer shear
will be in place, resulting in an overall airmass that supports
supercells.

However, whether discrete supercells can develop and mature remains
uncertain. A combination of neutral height tendencies, widespread
cloud cover, and warm-air advection initiated storms will likely
lead to complex convective evolution and related storm interactions.
Majority of the convection-allowing guidance develops
thunderstorms within the warm sector from northern LA into central
MS by 18Z. Thunderstorm development is possible along the front from
northern AL into northern LA around this time as well. Large to very
large hail will be the primary risk with these storms, although
there is also a risk for tornadoes if a storm can remain discrete.
The tornado risk is expected to increase from the late afternoon
through the evening from central MS into central AL as low-level
hodographs lengthen in response to strengthening low-level flow.
Environmental conditions support the potential for a strong tornado
during this timeframe. Whether or not storms can realize this
increasing low-level shear will largely be a function of storm mode.
Storms should eventually begin to cluster and to grow upscale, with
an increasing damaging wind threat continuing downstream into
portions of southern Alabama and central/southern Georgia.

The front will continue slowly southward, and the very moist
environment could support additional warm sector storms throughout
much of the evening and overnight, supporting a continued risk for
all severe hazards. Several rounds of elevated storms are possible
as well, with hail as the primary risk with these storms.

...TX Hill Country into southeast TX...
A pair of supercells capable of large hail are currently ongoing
across southwest TX (Crockett and Sutton Counties). Environmental
conditions are favorable for storm maintenance for at least an hour
or two before northward displacement from the better buoyancy leads
to weakening. Additional isolated development is possible farther
east into central and southeast TX during the afternoon and evening.
Any storms that mature would likely be supercellular and capable of
producing severe hail and damaging wind gusts.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/06/2026


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SPC May 6, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible across portions of central Mississippi and Alabama
before a shift to a more widespread damaging wind risk into the late
evening/overnight.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid to upper-level jet will move across the mid Mississippi
Valley into Tennessee and northward into the Ohio Valley through the
period. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward from the
southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states and north into the
Mid-Atlantic region. Thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing
along this boundary at the start of the period this morning across
portions of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and Tennessee. By the
afternoon, additional development of severe storms is likely across
portions of Louisiana into central Mississippi and central Alabama
along and ahead of the cold front. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible before trending to a damaging wind threat as storms
grow upscale through the evening.

...Northern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama...
Extensive mid-level cloud cover is expected to persist this morning
across much of the Mississippi River Valley into portions of
northern Louisiana/Alabama/Mississippi. Within the gradient of
broken mid-level cloud cover across portions of south-central and
southern Mississippi into central Alabama, filtered heating and
strong warm air advection may promote a more favorable corridor of
moderate MLCAPE values. Almost all hi-res guidance hints at the
possibility of storms developing within the open warm sector by the
afternoon, the primary mode being supercelluar. Within this
corridor, a southwesterly low-level jet around 40-50 kts will also
increase into the evening enlarging low-level hodographs and
increasing potential for tornadoes. Should supercells be able to
form and sustain within this environment, they would pose a risk for
all hazards including strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging
winds. The Enhanced Risk was shifted southward to nudge into the
region where there is better confidence that filtered heating will
occur. Higher probabilities were considered, but details on morning
cloud cover and air mass recovery into the afternoon lead to low
confidence in introducing higher probabilities.

As the front sags southward, storms will begin to cluster with
tendency to grow upscale and an increasing damaging wind threat
continuing downstream into portions of southern Alabama and
central/southern Georgia.

...Texas...
Thunderstorm development is possible further south along the front
and dryline into portions of eastern, central, and southwestern
Texas. Isolated supercells will be possible with potential for a few
instances of severe hail and damaging wind. Overall, coverage is
expected to remain more limited given better forcing for ascent will
be located to the east.

..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/06/2026


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SPC May 6, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible this evening from north
Texas, much of Arkansas, and into western Tennessee. Large to very
large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible.

...Discussion...
Two areas of thunderstorm development are noted this evening: one
near the cold front extending across northwestern Arkansas and
another southward into north Texas near the cold front interface
with the dryline in central Texas. These two areas will be the
targets of interest for severe storm development this evening.

...Arkansas...
A cluster of elevated cells have developed in the vicinity of the
cold front in northwestern Arkansas. These have been slow to mature,
likely owning to remaining surface inhibition observed from NSSL
LIFT soundings from central Arkansas. This is also observed in
surface objective analysis, with moderate to strong CAPE in place
across much of central/southern Arkansas. Hi-res guidance suggests
that additional development will be likely through the evening. The
shear profiles across the region are supportive of supercells, given
strong deep layer shear at 65+ kts. If these cells can become
surface based through time, the tornado risk will increase. Surface
objective analysis indicates STP around 3-4 across southwestern
Arkansas into central Arkansas. Through time, additional development
along the front will become more linear and support an increase in
damaging wind potential.

...North-Central and Northeastern Texas/Southwestern Texas...
Thunderstorms have developed across the north side of the Dallas
metro this evening near the interface of the dryline with surface
boundaries and the cold front. Conditionally, if supercells develop
across this region potential for large hail will be possible.

Guidance also suggests convective development will be possible near
the Mexico border in far southwestern Texas. A conditional risk for
large to very large hail will extend into this region as well this
evening.

..Thornton.. 05/06/2026


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