SPC Aug 14, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi
Valleys. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the
central Plains and from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic.

...Mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys...
An extensive band of showers and thunderstorms currently extends
from northeast NE southeastward across central IA, central IL, and
central IN. These showers and thunderstorms have been supported by
warm-air advection across a relatively broad/diffuse frontal zone
extending from southeast NE east-southeastward across northern MO
and southern IL. Overall coverage and intensity of these showers and
thunderstorms is forecast to gradually wane throughout the morning
as the low-level jet responsible for the warm-air advection weakens.

Primary severe risk across this region today will be linked to the
amount of air mass recovery and associated destabilization that
occurs along the southern periphery of this band, ahead of a
well-defined MCV generated by overnight convection across KS and NE.
Ample low-level moisture is in place, and differential heating
between the residual cloud debris from the early morning storms
could result in a warm-front-like zone across southern IA or
northern MO. Where this boundary sets up, its strength, and its
location all still remain uncertain this morning, largely due to the
limited predictability of how the ongoing precipitation evolves. The
airmass along and south of this boundary is forecast to destabilize
and become moderately to strongly unstable by the late afternoon.
Additionally, low-level convergence along this boundary should be
augmented by mesoscale ascent attendant to the MCV progressing
through the region. The resulting combination of lift and buoyancy
will support thunderstorm development. A belt of stronger mid-level
flow could accompany the MCV, resulting in enough deep-layer shear
to support organized storm structures with any persistent updrafts.
Strong gusts associated with water-loaded downdrafts, as well as
with any bowing segments, are the primary severe risk. Presence of
the boundary coupled with southeasterly low-level flow will also
support the potential for a brief tornado, particularly early in the
convective cycle when a more cellular mode is likely.

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing from IL into OH. These showers
and thunderstorms will likely weaken this morning but associated
cloud cover could reinforce a modest baroclinic zone that extends
from southern IL across southern IN/southern OH and through central
WV/central VA. A modest vorticity max over central IL is forecast to
progress southeast within the west-northwesterly mid-level flow
along and north of this boundary today. Ascent attendant to this
vorticity maximum coupled with low-level convergence and afternoon
airmass destabilization will support renewed thunderstorm
development. Vertical shear will be weak, but strong updrafts and
ample moisture could result in a threat for wet microbursts.

...Central High Plains...
A shortwave trough currently moving through the Lower CO River
Valley is forecast to continue northeastward through the Four
Corners. Ascent associated with this wave will combine with
orographic lift in the foothills of the Rockies to support scattered
convective initiation by early afternoon. Thunderstorms will then
move northeastward into the moderately buoyant airmass over the
central High Plains. Deep-layer shear will be modest but sufficient
for a few organized updrafts capable of hail and damaging gusts.

...Southern NV Vicinity...
Dewpoints are in the 60s across southern CA, the Lower CO River
Valley, and southern AZ. Strong heating will support afternoon
airmass destabilization, combining with the moisture in place to
support moderate buoyancy. Slightly stronger mid-level flow is
anticipated over the southern NV vicinity, supporting the potential
for isolated strong gusts.

..Mosier/Dean.. 08/14/2026


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SPC Aug 14, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the mid Missouri and mid
Mississippi Valleys. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible in
parts of the central Plains and from the Ohio Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic.

...Mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys...
A broad anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the
central U.S. today, as a subtle embedded shortwave trough moves
through the mid Missouri Valley. Ahead of this feature, a
quasi-stationary front will be in place from southern Iowa
east-southeastward into north-central Illinois. This boundary will
be the focus for convective development this afternoon. Surface
dewpoints along the boundary will be in the 70s F, which will result
in strong destabilization by afternoon. Surface-based convective
initiation is expected along the instability gradient during the
late afternoon to the south of Omaha. From these initial storms, a
line is expected to organize and move eastward across south-central
Iowa and far northern Missouri during the late afternoon and early
evening.

RAP forecast soundings ahead of the line at 00Z from Des Moines
southward into far northern Missouri have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500
J/kg range. Some directional shear is present in the low-levels, and
0-6 km shear is in the 30 to 35 knot range. This environment will be
favorable for bowing line segments capable of severe wind gusts. An
embedded supercell with a hail threat will also be possible. The
severe threat is expected to move eastward into northwest and
north-central Illinois during the evening.

...Central Plains...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today over much of the
western and central U.S. A subtle shortwave trough will move
northeastward into the central High Plains. Large-scale ascent
associated with the trough and topographic lift in the foothills of
the Rockies will be favorable for scattered convective initiation by
early afternoon. Thunderstorms will move northeastward into the
central High Plains and into a moderately unstable airmass. Some RAP
forecast soundings in east-central Colorado during the late
afternoon have 0-6 km shear around 25 knots with low to mid-level
lapse rates exceeding 7 C/km. This will likely support isolated
severe wind gusts and hail.

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today over much
of the northeastern U.S. At the surface, an axis of moderate
instability will develop by afternoon from the Ohio Valley
east-southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Along and near the
instability axis, low-level convergence will be the primary focus
for convective initiation. Near and downstream of these pockets of
convergence, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop. The moderate instability with precipitable water values in
the 2 to 2.2 inch range should support a threat for isolated severe
wet downbursts.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 08/14/2026


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SPC Aug 14, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible
tonight from parts of north-central Illinois into southwest Ohio.
Severe gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the central
Plains. A few severe gusts may also occur in parts of the
Intermountain West.

...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys/Southern Great Lakes...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level anticyclonic flow
pattern over the central U.S., with west-northwesterly flow located
over the eastern U.S. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is
analyzed from northeast Missouri to northern Kentucky. Surface
dewpoints along and to the south of the front are in the 70s and low
80s F, which is contributing a west-northwest to east-southeast axis
of strong instability. The RAP has MLCAPE along this axis in the
3000 to 5000 J/kg range. To the north of the instability axis,
short-term model forecasts move a subtle shortwave trough
east-southeastward through the Midwest tonight. Large-scale ascent
associated with the trough coupled with increasing low-level flow
will likely result in the development of a line of strong storms.
This is forecast to take place late this evening, with the line
moving southeastward from north-central Illinois across central
Indiana and into southwest Ohio. Severe wind gusts will be possible
with this line segment.

...Central Plains...
Southwesterly mid-level flow is currently in place over much of the
southwestern and central U.S. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough
appears to be moving into the central High Plains. Ahead of this
feature, the RAP has an axis of moderate instability located from
northern and western Kansas into northeastern Colorado, along which
MLCAPE is estimated in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Scattered
thunderstorms were ongoing near the instability axis early this
evening in eastern Colorado with another cluster in central Kansas.
Increasing low-level flow from this evening into the overnight
period will likely sustain convective development. Hail and isolated
severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger cells.

...Intermountain West...
On water vapor imagery, multiple shortwave troughs appear to be
moving through the Intermountain West. Ahead of these features,
scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across much of Nevada and Utah.
The RAP is currently analyzing an axis of instability from southeast
Nevada into north-central Utah along which MLCAPE is estimated to be
in the 750 to 1000 J/kg range. Near the instability axis, the RAP
also has low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8.5 C/km range.
This thermodynamic environment should support an isolated potential
for severe wind gusts this evening.

..Broyles.. 08/14/2026


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SPC Aug 13, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today from
parts of the southern/central High Plains to the Midwest. Severe
wind gusts should be the main threat, but some hail may also occur.

...Midwest including parts of eastern Iowa and Illinois/Indiana...
Supported by an MCV, a long-lived MCS continues to move
east-southeastward into west-central/northwest Illinois late this
morning. Greater stability initially precedes the MCS across
northern Illinois, but the remnant cluster and additional
redevelopment will likely tend to favor a more southeastward
progression in closer proximity to the front/instability gradient
that extends across Illinois/Indiana, with additional/renewed
development and intensification possible into the afternoon and
evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe hazard,
although a brief tornado and marginally severe hail are also
possible into this evening. While not certain, additional severe
redevelopment may also occur tonight farther west/northeastward
across areas potentially including eastern Iowa and northern/central
Illinois as a low-level jet nocturnally increases.

...Southern/Central High Plains...
High-based thunderstorms are expected to initially develop over the
higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range this afternoon,
with post-frontal low-level upslope flow persisting across the
central High Plains. Storm motions into slightly richer moisture
will favor some aggregation of outflow within a hot boundary layer
featuring steep lapse rates. Isolated to widely scattered severe
wind gusts 60-75 mph are possible, along with occasional hail with a
few of the stronger cores.

...Great Basin...
Modestly enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will persist today
across the Great Basin downstream of a weak mid-level trough over
California. Weak to locally moderate instability is forecast via
diurnal heating. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected
and some of the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be
capable of 60-75 mph gusts.

...Northeast...
Seasonably cool mid-level temperatures are forecast today across
parts of the Northeast, with a mid-level trough expected to move
east-southeastward from Quebec into New England. While instability
is forecast to remain fairly limited, strong west-northwesterly flow
aloft may support a risk for isolated damaging winds (50-65 mph)
with thunderstorms that develop and spread southeastward through the
afternoon. Isolated hail may also occur with the stronger cells.

..Guyer/Chalmers.. 08/13/2026


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