SPC Oct 11, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and a
tornado or two will be possible today across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. Additional storms with isolated severe gusts will be
possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region.

...Mid-Atlantic...
The remnants of Isaias will move through the southern Appalachians
and Mid-Atlantic today. At the surface, a moist airmass will advect
northeastward across North Carolina and eastern Virginia, where
dewpoints will increase into the 70s F. MLCAPE is forecast to peak
in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range over parts of the Mid-Atlantic by
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will develop in the Carolina
Piedmont this morning and move northeastward into the lower
elevations of eastern North Carolina and south-central Virginia
early this afternoon. RAP forecast soundings from near Raleigh
northward to west of Richmond around midday have long curved
hodographs, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 225
m2/s2 range. This will support a tornado threat with supercells that
remain discrete. The tornado threat should persist into the evening
as the stronger storms move toward the Mid-Atlantic coast.

...Desert Southwest/Four Corners...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward today from the
Desert Southwest into the Four Corners region. At the surface, an
axis of low-level moisture will be in place from southwestern
Arizona extending northeastward toward the Four Corners. Weak
instability will develop along this southwest-to-northeast corridor
as surface temperature warm. Large-scale ascent associated with the
shortwave trough will support scattered thunderstorm development
this afternoon. Forecast soundings from western Arizona into
southeast Utah this afternoon have strong unidirectional winds from
the south-southwest in the low to mid-levels. The resultant strong
deep-layer shear could support a marginal wind-damage threat.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/11/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TVsdR2

SPC Oct 11, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with an isolated tornado threat will be
possible this evening across parts of the Carolinas. A few severe
wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest.

...Carolinas...
The remnants of Isaias will continue to move northward across the
Tennessee Valley this evening. In the eastern part of the system,
scattered convection with little lightning activity is currently
ongoing from eastern Georgia northward into the western Carolinas.
This convection is located along and near the axis of a low-level
jet. Surface analysis has dewpoints over much of eastern Georgia and
southern South Carolina in the 70s F. Within this moist airmass, the
RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, the
latest WSR-88D VWP at Columbia, South Carolina has a looped
hodograph with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This
strong low-level shear will support a tornado threat this evening
into the overnight with rotating cells that remain semi-discrete,
mainly across the eastern half of South Carolina into southern North
Carolina.

...Desert Southwest...
Tropical Storm Rachel, in conjunction with a mid-level shortwave
trough, will move toward the northern part of Baja California this
evening. Ahead of the system, moisture advection will continue
across parts of the Desert Southwest. Over southwestern Arizona,
surface dewpoints will continue to increase into the mid to upper
60s F, aiding destabilization this evening with MLCAPE increasing to
around 1000 J/kg. In addition, large-scale ascent will increase as
the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the region. In
response to the lift, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop
and move northeastward across southern and western Arizona this
evening. The mid-level jet will also create moderate to strong
deep-layer shear sufficient for isolated severe storms. A few severe
wind gusts will be possible.

..Broyles.. 10/11/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TVsWdq

SPC Oct 10, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of tornadoes are possible today over eastern Georgia into
the Carolinas.

...FL Big Bend/Georgia/Carolinas...
Midday surface mesoanalysis places the remnant circulation from
Isaias over central AL with a west-east oriented frontal zone
extending eastward from the low to the SC coast. A cold front arcs
southeast through western GA into the FL Panhandle. The warm sector
continues to destabilize as cloud cover thins and stronger heating
commences. A bubbling cumulus field will eventually transition to
scattered convective development this afternoon. The warm front
will gradually advance northward through central SC later today and
the coastal plain of NC. Enlarged hodographs will conditionally
support storm-scale rotation with stronger and more persistent
updrafts. A couple of tornadoes are possible primarily coincident
with the diurnal heating cycle when buoyancy will be maximized.
Models show surface-based instability eventually inundating northern
portions of SC as the warm front advances north tonight. A Marginal
Risk for a tornado or two may continue tonight, although uncertainty
is high regarding this potential scenario.

...Southeast ID...
Water-vapor imagery shows an upper trough pivoting slowly east
across the Pacific Northwest today. A belt of 40+ kt 500-mb
southwesterly flow will extend through the base of the trough and
areas downstream across the northern Great Basin into the northern
Rockies. As temperatures gradually warm and clouds erode through
the mid afternoon, forecast soundings show very steep surface to
500-mb lapse rates and the development of weak buoyancy. Guidance
suggests scattered storms developing later this afternoon and moving
east across the Upper Snake Valley into western WY. An isolated
risk for marginally severe hail and severe gusts may accompany the
stronger storms.

...Lower CO River Valley into South-Central AZ...
Tropical Storm Rachel will undergo an extratropical transition
during the period as it moves northeast into the lower CO Valley by
early Sunday morning per the latest NHC forecast. An
intensification of the wind profile through a deep layer is evident
in forecast soundings across the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts
especially tonight. Seasonably rich boundary layer moisture
advecting north will contribute to at least weak destabilization and
the possibility for a few organized updrafts. Will maintain
low-severe probabilities this outlook update.

..Smith/Barnes.. 10/10/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TVsRWb

SPC Oct 10, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
GEORGIA INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a tornado threat will be possible
today from eastern Georgia into western/southern South Carolina. A
few severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Desert
Southwest.

...Eastern Florida Panhandle/Georgia/Carolinas...
Isaias underwent a rapid transition to a post-tropical cyclone after
landfall Friday evening, with a notable baroclinic zone now in place
throughout its eastern periphery. The low-level center of this
system is currently over southeast AL, with a warm front extending
east-northeastward from this center across central GA, central SC,
and eastern NC. General expectation is for this former tropical
cyclone to spend the first half of the period completing its
transition to a mid-latitude cyclone over MS/AL before then
progressing northeastward across the TN Valley later tonight. The
surface low is expected to drift northeastward as the system
matures, centering over northern AL by 00Z. As it does, its warm
sector, which is characterized by low to mid 70s dewpoints, will
expand northwestward into more of GA and the Carolinas. This
increase in low-level moisture will support moderate buoyancy (i.e.
MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg) despite widespread cloudiness and limited
heating. Low-level confluence within the warm sector, augmented by
modest but persistent large-scale ascent, is expected to support
thunderstorm development throughout the period, particularly during
the afternoon.

The stronger low to mid-level flow will be displaced west of the
greater low-level moisture and associated buoyancy. Even so,
southeasterly low-level flow veering to southerly in the mid/upper
levels will result in moderate vertical shear and the potential for
occasional organization/intensification of the predominantly
multicellular structures. Several brief tornadoes could result
within any of these more organized storms. Convectively augmented
damaging wind gusts are possible as well. Greatest severe potential
is expected along the GA/SC border vicinity between 21Z and 00Z.

...Lower CO River Valley into South-Central AZ...
Complex synoptic evolution is anticipated over the eastern Pacific
Ocean, just upstream of southern CA and the Baja Peninsula, as
Tropical Storm Rachel interacts with a compact mid-latitude cyclone.
The interaction will increase the northeastward motion of the
tropical cyclone, while also resulting an expanded low to mid-level
wind field. Additionally, this evolution will favor advection of
notable low-level moisture into the Lower CO River Valley and
adjacent southern/central AZ. Overall thunderstorm coverage is
expected to increase throughout the day into tonight. Deep-layer
vertical shear will be stronger enough for supercells, a few of
which could produce strong wind gusts. Additionally, surface low
associated with the tropical cyclone is forecast to move into the
Lower CO River Valley region after 06Z. Increase low-level winds and
moisture will support a low-probability tornado threat.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 10/10/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TVsHFJ