SPC Aug 24, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MIDDLE GULF
COAST AND COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be possible mainly this afternoon and evening across the
Dakotas and northwest Minnesota as well as the central High Plains.
Other severe storms may focus across the lower Mississippi Valley
and middle Gulf Coast, as well as the coastal Carolinas.

...Dakotas/Upper Midwest to central High Plains...
An eastward-moving shortwave trough will emerge from the Canadian
Rockies and move across the Canadian prairies through tonight, with
a belt of moderately strong flow aloft and multiple MCVs influencing
the Dakotas to Minnesota. Residual early day convection and
lingering cloud cover will be complicating factors as far as the
later-day forecast scenario.

That said, at least widely scattered thunderstorms should develop
and increase by late afternoon within a moist/unstable air mass near
the eastward-moving front and weak surface wave across the
east-central Dakotas and/or cross the international border and move
southeastward into the region. Deep-layer wind profiles would be
conducive to some supercells and the development of
east/southeastward-moving clusters by evening, with large hail and
damaging winds possible.

More removed from the stronger cyclonic flow aloft, additional
higher-based storms are expected by late afternoon and early evening
south-southwestward across the Black Hills/western Nebraska in
vicinity of the front and preceding trough. Sufficient
strength/veering of winds with height should support some initial
supercells capable of hail, prior to a clustering of these
southeastward-moving storms, with wind damage being a possibility
through mid/late evening across the central High Plains.

...Coastal Carolinas...
The region will be influenced by moderately strong cyclonic flow
aloft, with a moist and moderate-to-strongly unstable environment
along the coastal plain to the east of a stationary/slow-moving
front. The degree of buoyancy and upwards of 35-40 kt effective
shear could support some initial supercells with hail this
afternoon, although damaging winds should be the most prevalent
concern as storms become more numerous. Severe potential should tend
to wane by around sunset.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Middle Gulf Coast...
Widely scattered elevated convection has developed early in the
overnight across the Ozarks, and this regime may increase and
probably shift south-southeastward today, potentially becoming
surface based into the afternoon, influenced by cold pool
development. It seems plausible that an upscale-growing/forward
propagating cluster could gradually evolve during the day, with
damaging wind potential increasing across the ArkLaMiss
south-southeastward toward the Gulf Coast.

...Northern Great Basin/central Rockies...
Scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon amid classic inverted-V profiles. Since these storms will
develop along the periphery of stronger flow aloft, some
organization is possible. Multiple dry microbursts may occur, some
of which may pose a severe gust threat.

...Maine...
By late morning into early afternoon, partially clearing skies will
encourage surface temperatures to rise into the 70s F, resulting in
marginal instability (e.g. a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE) given
relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Nonetheless, a southerly
mid-to upper-level jet streak will overspread northern New England
during the afternoon, resulting in highly elongated hodographs and
30-40 kt of effective shear. As such, any storms that can develop
and become sustained should become organized multicells capable of
supporting a few damaging gusts and possibly some hail.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 08/24/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TV88TQ

SPC Aug 23, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND GREAT BASIN...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts
are forecast across parts of the northern Rockies/Plains this
afternoon and evening. Other thunderstorms with mainly a severe
wind threat are probable over portions of the northern Great Basin.

...20z Update...

...Northern Rockies/Plains and Great Basin...
Subtle adjustments were made to the existing Marginal/Slight risk
areas based on ongoing convective trends. Recent CAM/TLE guidance
suggests that upscale growth of convection into one or more linear
clusters may result in localized corridors of greater
damaging/severe wind coverage across portions of northern Utah and
central Montana. The evolution of this scenario remains somewhat
uncertain, however, which precludes the addition of 30% wind
probabilities at this time. See MCDs 2099, 2100, and 2101 for
additional short-term details.

...Coastal Carolinas...
Recent mesoanalysis and observational data depict modestly elongated
hodographs and effective shear around 35 kts in place across
portions of the Coastal Carolinas. Despite poor mid-level lapse
rates, this may allow for the occurrence of isolated, marginally
severe hail with the most robust updraft cores. Thus, a targeted 5%
hail probability area was included with this update, which is
similarly supported by AI/ML guidance and recent CAM solutions.

Elsewhere, the forecast remains largely on track, with only minor
adjustments made based on the latest forecast and observational
trends. See the discussion below for additional details.

..Chalmers/Moore.. 08/23/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026/

...Great Basin into the Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an eastward-migrating
shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. A belt of 40-50 kt of
west-southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the northern
Rockies and adjacent High Plains of central/eastern MT by this
afternoon. Heating along with ascent attendant to the disturbance
will favor initial storm development over the higher terrain over
southwest/western MT. Steepening lapse rates over the High Plains
will favor the potential for scattered severe gusts as thunderstorms
move/develop over the plains during the late afternoon and evening.
A mix of multicells and supercells may yield a risk for severe hail
early before upscale growth into linear clusters (60-80 mph gusts)
likely evolves during the evening.

A somewhat separate area of convection should develop this afternoon
across parts of the northern Great Basin and Upper Snake Valley.
While mid-level flow will be somewhat weaker across this region
compared to locations farther north, the presence of generally 50s
surface dewpoints across northern UT and vicinity suggests that
sufficient low-level moisture exists to support robust updrafts.
Very steep lapse rates will favor ample evaporative cooling in the
stronger downdrafts. Scattered severe gusts (60-80 mph) are
possible with the stronger thunderstorm cores and outflow.

...Northern/Central Plains...
Morning surface analysis places a moisture plume (lower to mid 60s
deg F dewpoints) extending from the TX-OK Panhandles
north-northwestward through eastern CO/NE Panhandle and into the
Black Hills vicinity. It is within this corridor moderate to strong
instability is forecast by mid-late afternoon along/east of a lee
surface trough. At least isolated thunderstorms should develop by
peak afternoon heating across these areas, with west-northwesterly
flow strengthening with height through mid/upper levels. Around
35-45 kt of deep-layer shear will support supercells and associated
threat for large hail from northeast CO northward into the western
Dakotas.

Farther south, high-based convection is forecast to slowly
spread/move east of the Raton Mesa into the TX-OK Panhandles during
the early evening. Very steep lapse rates and inverted-V profiles
will favor evaporative cooling and an isolated threat for severe
gusts with the stronger downdrafts and outflow surges.

...Northeast...
Midday satellite imagery shows an upper trough/low over Ontario with
a series of embedded shortwave impulses rotating through its base.
A lead disturbance over the Lower Great Lakes will continue to
rotate northeastward across the western portion of the Northeast and
influence scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon.
Heating of an adequately moist airmass but relatively meager
mid-level lapse rate environment will result in weak buoyancy
developing through mid afternoon as convection deepens. Around
30-35 kt of deep-layer shear will support some updraft organization
mainly in the form of bands of storms. An isolated risk for strong
to locally severe gusts is expected across much of this region this
afternoon. Towards early evening, an upstream impulse will approach
the Lake Erie vicinity with some uptick in storm coverage and
perhaps a lingering risk for wind damage before this activity
weakens by the mid evening.

...Southeast...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along/south
of a weak front draped across the lower MS Valley into the Gulf
Coast states, and continuing northeastward into the Carolinas. An
isolated threat for strong to locally severe gusts may result in
pockets of wind damage with the more intense wet microbursts.

...Northeast Oklahoma/Southeast Kansas into the Ozarks...
Some modest increase in isentropic ascent associated with
a south-southwesterly low-level jet, may aid thunderstorm
development late tonight into early Monday morning across parts of
northeast OK/southeast KS into the Ozarks. Instability is forecast
to remain fairly weak (MUCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), but
some clustering may occur with a low chance for localized severe
gusts.

...Arizona...
On the western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered over
eastern NM, weak southeasterly mid-level flow will remain across
southern/central AZ. Model guidance only depicts weak buoyancy
across much of central and southern AZ, with the exception of
perhaps over far southern AZ. Nonetheless, hot temperatures and a
deeply mixed boundary layer lend some potential for a localized
microburst risk.


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TV82FT

SPC Aug 23, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND GREAT BASIN...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts
are forecast across parts of the northern Rockies/Plains this
afternoon and evening. Other thunderstorms with mainly a severe
wind threat are probable over portions of the northern Great Basin.

...Great Basin into the Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an eastward-migrating
shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. A belt of 40-50 kt of
west-southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the northern
Rockies and adjacent High Plains of central/eastern MT by this
afternoon. Heating along with ascent attendant to the disturbance
will favor initial storm development over the higher terrain over
southwest/western MT. Steepening lapse rates over the High Plains
will favor the potential for scattered severe gusts as thunderstorms
move/develop over the plains during the late afternoon and evening.
A mix of multicells and supercells may yield a risk for severe hail
early before upscale growth into linear clusters (60-80 mph gusts)
likely evolves during the evening.

A somewhat separate area of convection should develop this afternoon
across parts of the northern Great Basin and Upper Snake Valley.
While mid-level flow will be somewhat weaker across this region
compared to locations farther north, the presence of generally 50s
surface dewpoints across northern UT and vicinity suggests that
sufficient low-level moisture exists to support robust updrafts.
Very steep lapse rates will favor ample evaporative cooling in the
stronger downdrafts. Scattered severe gusts (60-80 mph) are
possible with the stronger thunderstorm cores and outflow.

...Northern/Central Plains...
Morning surface analysis places a moisture plume (lower to mid 60s
deg F dewpoints) extending from the TX-OK Panhandles
north-northwestward through eastern CO/NE Panhandle and into the
Black Hills vicinity. It is within this corridor moderate to strong
instability is forecast by mid-late afternoon along/east of a lee
surface trough. At least isolated thunderstorms should develop by
peak afternoon heating across these areas, with west-northwesterly
flow strengthening with height through mid/upper levels. Around
35-45 kt of deep-layer shear will support supercells and associated
threat for large hail from northeast CO northward into the western
Dakotas.

Farther south, high-based convection is forecast to slowly
spread/move east of the Raton Mesa into the TX-OK Panhandles during
the early evening. Very steep lapse rates and inverted-V profiles
will favor evaporative cooling and an isolated threat for severe
gusts with the stronger downdrafts and outflow surges.

...Northeast...
Midday satellite imagery shows an upper trough/low over Ontario with
a series of embedded shortwave impulses rotating through its base.
A lead disturbance over the Lower Great Lakes will continue to
rotate northeastward across the western portion of the Northeast and
influence scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon.
Heating of an adequately moist airmass but relatively meager
mid-level lapse rate environment will result in weak buoyancy
developing through mid afternoon as convection deepens. Around
30-35 kt of deep-layer shear will support some updraft organization
mainly in the form of bands of storms. An isolated risk for strong
to locally severe gusts is expected across much of this region this
afternoon. Towards early evening, an upstream impulse will approach
the Lake Erie vicinity with some uptick in storm coverage and
perhaps a lingering risk for wind damage before this activity
weakens by the mid evening.

...Southeast...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along/south
of a weak front draped across the lower MS Valley into the Gulf
Coast states, and continuing northeastward into the Carolinas. An
isolated threat for strong to locally severe gusts may result in
pockets of wind damage with the more intense wet microbursts.

...Northeast Oklahoma/Southeast Kansas into the Ozarks...
Some modest increase in isentropic ascent associated with
a south-southwesterly low-level jet, may aid thunderstorm
development late tonight into early Monday morning across parts of
northeast OK/southeast KS into the Ozarks. Instability is forecast
to remain fairly weak (MUCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), but
some clustering may occur with a low chance for localized severe
gusts.

...Arizona...
On the western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered over
eastern NM, weak southeasterly mid-level flow will remain across
southern/central AZ. Model guidance only depicts weak buoyancy
across much of central and southern AZ, with the exception of
perhaps over far southern AZ. Nonetheless, hot temperatures and a
deeply mixed boundary layer lend some potential for a localized
microburst risk.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 08/23/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TV7w1r

SPC Aug 23, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible for another couple
hours across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley before
thunderstorm intensity wanes later this evening and overnight.

... 01Z Update ...

Thunderstorm intensity continues to wane across much of the United
States this evening. The most intense thunderstorms continue to be a
cluster of southeast moving thunderstorms across the lower
Mississippi Valley. Here, strong instability will maintain a hail
and wind threat for a couple more hours before weakening with the
increasing boundary layer stability.

Elsewhere, a few sporadic damaging wind gusts will be possible with
a weakening line of storms across central Pennsylvania south into
southern Virginia over the next couple of hours as well as across
portions of the southern High Plains where a linear MCS continues to
push south and west.

Across portions of the Nebraska Panhandle northwest into eastern
Wyoming and western South Dakota, strong vertical shear and 2000
J/kg MUCAPE will maintain support for a few large hail stones and a
couple of marginally severe wind gusts.

A cluster of storms across south-central Colorado will be capable of
marginally severe hail and wind gusts for another one or two hours
before weakening with the loss of diurnal heating.

Across the west, strong thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible
from northern Utah northward toward far southwest Montana. These
high-based storms will be capable of sporadic downbursts capable of
strong erratic winds.

Lastly, a low probability of marginally severe hail and wind gusts
will remain possible across northern Washington this evening as a
strong mid-level just streak continues to lift northeast into
Canada.

..Marsh.. 08/23/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TV7bj7