SPC Aug 9, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE
DAKOTAS....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds are possible today into this evening from
southern Wisconsin eastward across parts of northern Illinois,
southern Lower Michigan, northwest Ohio, and northern Indiana.
Damaging wind and hail may also occur across portions of the Dakotas
tonight.

...Midwest...
A persistent cluster of thunderstorms over southern WI appears
likely to continue southeastward through much of the day into parts
of IL/MI/IN and eventually OH. This activity will track near a
NW-SE oriented baroclinic zone, with dewpoints in the lower 70s to
the south. Eventually, low-level lapse rates will become
sufficiently steep to support damaging wind gusts along the leading
edge of the storms. Later tonight, strengthening southwesterly
low-level winds will enhance warm advection and lift over parts of
IL/IN, potentially leading to another round of strong/severe storms
capable of damaging winds and hail after 06z.

...Dakotas...
12z model guidance continues to decrease the confidence in overnight
severe storms, with some CAM solutions showing no thunderstorms.
Therefore have made the SLGT area smaller and focused where there is
highest confidence in isolated storms. Forecast soundings continue
to indicate steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep shear,
providing a conditional risk of supercells if convection can be
sustained.

...AZ...
Thunderstorms are once again predicted to form along the Rim and
track westward toward the PHX metro area this evening. The strength
of the steering flow, instability, and mid-level moisture all appear
favorable for a severe risk. However, mesoscale details of the
evolution of the storms over high terrain will dictate the eventual
risk.

..Hart/Weinman.. 08/09/2026


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SPC Aug 9, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds may occur today into this evening from
southern Minnesota and eastern Iowa eastward across parts of
northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin, southern Lower Michigan,
northwest Ohio, and northern Indiana. Damaging wind and hail are
also expected across portions of the Dakotas.

...Midwest...
Radar/satellite composite shows a corridor of showers/thunderstorms
from northern MO into southern MN and western WI associated with
isentropic lift on the nose of a 40-kt southwesterly LLJ. A
localized risk for hail/wind may accompany this activity this
morning as it shifts eastward across the MS River towards Lake MI
through midday. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the
severe forecast for the eastern IA into the southern Great Lakes
portion of the Slight Risk. Showers/thunderstorms and related
convective debris/outflow will be influential on airmass recovery
later this afternoon. It seems plausible a warm front draped over
the Corn Belt this morning will slowly advance northward into the
southwest Great Lakes with an increasingly unstable airmass
developing to the south/west of this convectively augmented
baroclinic zone.

Model forecast soundings show ample CAPE aided by the northern rim
of lower to mid 70s F surface dewpoints into northern portions of
IL/IN. Adequately strong and vertically veering wind profiles will
support 30-40 kt effective shear magnitudes. Low-level SRH may also
be locally boosted in the vicinity of the warm front/effective
boundary, which could then play a role in severe potential if a
supercell or linear segments were to develop and favorably interact
within this corridor. Rather poor depiction of this morning's
thunderstorm evolution (i.e., 00z HREF members) casts large
uncertainty where a couple of more intense thunderstorm clusters
will ultimately develop. It seems the greatest potential for severe
will be centered over northern IL later this afternoon through the
evening, but confidence remains low regarding details and the need
for spatial refinements of the severe risk area and the need for
potential higher probabilities.

...Dakotas and western NE...
A surface front is expected to push southward across the central
Plains, becoming oriented across northern KS by tonight. Low-level
warm advection atop the boundary, and surface winds becoming
south/southeasterly with time will maintain 60s dewpoints across the
region. Within this post-frontal upslope regime, a reservoir of
mainly 60s F dewpoints will reside beneath moderate northwesterly
flow aloft. Supercell wind profiles and steep low-level lapse rates
will support initial storms capable of large hail and severe gusts,
especially as this activity over the western Dakotas moves
southeastward into richer moisture. A small cluster may eventually
evolve during the overnight with an attendant risk for severe gusts
and perhaps large hail.

...Southern Appalachians...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected over higher terrain
within a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. Steepening
low-level lapse rates and high PW values may support locally strong
gusts with wet microbursts through early evening.

...AZ...
Modest easterly mid/upper flow will persist across the region on the
southern periphery of an upper high over the Four Corners. Another
day of hot conditions will promote steep lapse rates and modest
destabilization. As convection develops over higher terrain and
spread westward, strong outflow gusts may occur.

..Smith/Kerr.. 08/09/2026


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SPC Aug 9, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST...AND PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds may occur today into this evening from
southern Minnesota and eastern Iowa eastward across parts of
northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin, southern Lower Michigan,
northwest Ohio, and northern Indiana. Damaging wind and hail is also
expected across portions of the Dakotas.

...IA/MN into the Midwest...

Convection is expected to be ongoing this morning across parts of
southern MN into eastern IA. This early day activity could pose a
risk for damaging gusts. This activity is likely to continue to
spread eastward across the Lake Michigan vicinity through the
afternoon on the nose a of modest low-level jet and along a surface
front oriented across southern WI and Lower MI. This activity could
intensify as is moves into a destabilizing airmass by midday.

Additional development is possible within the moisture rich warm
sector across northern IL/IN along the southern flank of ongoing
convection and/or outflow. Strong to extreme instability is
forecast, while vertically veering wind profiles support 30+ kt
effective shear magnitudes. Low-level SRH also will be enhanced
along the surface boundary. While damaging winds are expected to be
the primary hazard with convection, some risk for hail and a tornado
or two also will exist through evening. Depending on the evolution
of morning convection, it is possible higher probabilities will be
needed in subsequent outlooks.

...Dakotas and western NE...

A surface front is expected to develop southward across the central
Plains, becoming oriented across northern KS by tonight. Low-level
warm advection atop the boundary, and surface winds becoming
south/southeasterly with time will maintain 60s dewpoints across the
region. Within this post-frontal upslope regime, moderate
northwesterly flow aloft will persist. A modest south/southwesterly
low-level jet is also forecast to develop during the evening hours.
Low-level convergence within the warm advection regime and
increasing low-level jet may be sufficient for isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development. Supercell wind profiles and steep
low-level lapse rates will support initial storms capable of large
hail and damaging winds. If sufficient clusters/outflow
consolidation can occur, upscale growth during the late evening into
overnight hours is possible, with an increasing risk for swaths of
severe/damaging gusts.

...Southern Appalachians...

Scattered thunderstorm development is expected over higher terrain
within a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. Steepening low-level
lapse rates and high PW values may support locally strong gusts with
wet microbursts through early evening.

...AZ...

Modest easterly mid/upper flow will persist across the region on the
southern periphery of an upper high over the Four Corners. Another
day of hot conditions will promote steep lapse rates and modest
destabilization. As convection develops over higher terrain and
spread westward, strong outflow gusts may occur.

..Leitman/Moore.. 08/09/2026


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SPC Aug 9, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MN/IA...OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
AZ...AND FROM CENTRAL OH INTO WESTERN NY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated instances of large to very large hail will be possible
across the northern Plains through tonight.

...Dakotas into MN/IA and the MO Valley...

Isolated thunderstorms have developed early this evening across
south-central ND. Isolated large to very large hail may accompany
these storms if they can intensify and be maintained. It is
uncertain if this convection will continue to develop east/southeast
into SD given strong capping, or if additional convection will
develop later tonight as a low-level jet increases. Reference MCD
1872 for more short term information. Despite uncertainty in
convective evolution through the evening into tonight, severe
potential, mainly in the form of large hail near 2 inch diameter,
and strong wind gusts, remains possible.

...Ohio Valley into western NY...

Thunderstorm clusters have develop ahead of a surface front from OH
into western PA/NY. This activity will continue to spread eastward
within moderate instability through early tonight. Sporadic strong
wind gusts will be possible for a few more hours before weakening
with loss of daytime heating and increasing nocturnal boundary layer
stabilization.

...AZ...

Isolated thunderstorms developing over higher terrain will continue
to spread westward across the lower deserts tonight. Strong wind
gusts will be possible with this activity.

...CO/KS vicinity...

Thick smoke across the region has muted instability across CO into
northeast KS and vicinity. Any stronger convection has moved south
into southwest KS where locally gusty winds are possible for another
couple of hours. However, severe potential appears limited with
anemic high-based showers moving across eastern CO into northwest KS
and southwest NE. As such, severe probabilities have been removed.

...TX...

Outflow from a thunderstorm cluster across northeast TX will
continue to progress south/southwest this evening. Instability
lessens with westward extent and, with loss of daytime heating,
low-level inhibition will increase. Severe potential has largely
diminished and probabilities have been removed.

...NC vicinity...

Thunderstorms have gradually weakened over the past 30-60 minutes as
low-level inhibition increases with the loss of daytime heating. As
such, severe potential has diminished and severe probabilities have
been removed.

..Leitman.. 08/09/2026


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