SPC Oct 31, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Valid 310100Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible this evening in parts of southern and central Arizona.

...Arizona...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over the
Desert Southwest with a notable dry slot extending from southern
California into western Arizona. At the surface, a 1004 mb low is
located in the Sierra Nevada of eastern California with a trough
extending southeastward into southwestern Arizona. Surface dewpoints
along the surface trough are in the upper 50s to mid 60s F.
Low-level convergence along the surface trough and large-scale
ascent associated with the upper-level system have contributed to
recent convective development across parts of western and central
Arizona. Cell initiation will continue to be possible near the
surface trough for much of the evening. In addition, the RAP has an
axis of instability extending from northern Mexico into central
Arizona, where MLCAPE is estimated in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range.
The WSR-88D VWP at Phoenix is sampling the wind profile east of the
instability axis and has 0-6 km shear around 30 knots with gradually
veering winds with height in the low to mid-levels. This should
support an isolated severe threat with rotating cells. Isolated
severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats over the next
few hours.

..Broyles.. 10/31/2026


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SPC Oct 30, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Valid 302000Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE
COAST OF TEXAS AND CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated risk for severe weather is possible today along the
middle coast of Texas and central into southern Arizona.

...20z Update...

...Middle Coast of TX...
The upper trough and associated vorticity maxima noted in the
previous outlook continues to shift northeast. Tornado probabilities
have been trimmed in the wake of this disturbance. A brief tornado
remains possible with any updraft that can take advantage of the
enhanced low-level shear in this region. See MCD #2420 for
additional details.

...Arizona...
Visible satellite trends have shown some filtered insolation in the
wake of the initial band of precipitation this afternoon, resulting
in modest destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms have redeveloped
across portions of northwest Arizona and southern Nevada. Additional
redevelopment should continue farther south, into central/southern
Arizona over the next few hours. Isolated severe hail/winds will be
possible with this activity amid the modest deep-layer shear
environment. Probabilities have been trimmed slightly in southwest
Arizona based on observational trends.

..Karstens.. 10/30/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026/

...Middle Coast of TX...
An upper trough and associated vorticity maximum evident in midday
water-vapor imagery over the Rio Grande Valley will continue
east-northeast and reach the Ark-La-Tex and northwest Gulf Coast by
late evening. A zone of warm advection immediately ahead of the
disturbance will advance northeast up the coast during the
afternoon. The inland penetration of higher theta-e into the
coastal counties may result in sufficient buoyancy for a couple of
stronger updrafts. Some enlargement of the low-level portion of the
hodograph within a moist environment may yield a risk for a brief
tornado near the coast this afternoon.

...Arizona...
A shortwave trough moving into southern CA will continue northeast
towards the Four Corners during the period. Copious mid to
high-level cloud cover will likely limit heating of a seasonably
moist boundary layer across the lower desert. Model guidance
continues to indicate the possibility for a few stronger
thunderstorms developing later today. An isolated risk for
marginally severe hail and localized severe gusts may accompany the
stronger thunderstorms.


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SPC Oct 30, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible in parts of Arizona today.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs
within the extensive southwesterly flow aloft that covers much of
the western CONUS. The easternmost shortwave is moving from central
Mexico into TX and the westernmost shortwave is just off the
southern CA coast. The easternmost shortwave is forecast to progress
northeastward across TX today, contributing to showers and
thunderstorms from the TX Hill Country to the TX Gulf Coast. Moist
southerly flow is anticipated throughout the period across the
central and southern Plains, including the wake of the lead
shortwave when warm-air advection associated with an strengthening
low-level jet will support increasing thunderstorm coverage from the
central Plains into the Mid MO Valley this evening. Limited buoyancy
should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low.

...Arizona...
Shortwave trough currently just off the southern CA coast is
forecast to continue northeastward today, likely moving through the
Lower CO Valley and into AZ this afternoon and evening. Modest
low-level moisture advection will precede this shortwave, bringing
the low to mid 60s dewpoints currently along the western AZ/Mexico
border northward into more of southern AZ. The highest afternoon
dewpoints will likely be in the mid 60s from southwest into central
AZ. This anomalously high low-level moisture will help support
moderate afternoon buoyancy, despite widespread cloud cover and poor
lapse rates.

The strongest vertical shear is anticipated from now through the
early afternoon, resulting in some temporal displacement between the
stronger shear and greater buoyancy. Even so, there appears to be
enough overlap to support some stronger storms this afternoon from
southwest into south-central AZ. Primary threat is damaging gusts,
although a few instances of hail are possible as well.

..Mosier/Moore.. 10/30/2026


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SPC Oct 30, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND LOCALLY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with an isolated hail threat will be possible this
evening over parts of central and northeast Kansas. A brief tornado
will be possible in parts of southwest Texas early this evening.

...Central and Northeast Kansas...
An anticyclonic flow pattern is evident over much of the central U.S
on water vapor imagery. At the surface, a stalled front is located
in central Kansas extending eastward into southern Illinois. Widely
scattered thunderstorms are developing near the front in central
Kansas in a moderately unstable airmass according the RAP, with
MLCAPE estimated to be around 2000 J/kg. Near the pocket of stronger
instability, the RAP has 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 6.5 to 7 C/km
range along with enough deep-layer shear for cell rotation. This
could be sufficient for a hail threat with the strongest of cells
this evening, as storms move and develop northeastward from central
Kansas into northeast Kansas...see MCD 2419.

...Southwest Texas...
A subtle shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over
northern Mexico. Ahead of this feature, pockets of large-scale
ascent are evident over parts of Texas, where widespread
precipitation is ongoing. Weak instability is analyzed by the RAP
over parts of southwest, west and northwest Texas. The strongest
low-level flow is located over the western Texas Hill Country, where
RAP forecast soundings early this evening have 0-3 km storm-relative
helicity around 225 m2/s2 and surface dewpoints near 70 F. This
could be enough for a brief tornado with low-topped cells that
rotate within the moist airmass over the next couple more
hours...see MCD 2418.

..Broyles.. 10/30/2026


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