SPC Jul 25, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL MT...AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF SD...

...SUMMARY...
Storms with scattered severe wind gusts are possible across parts of
Montana and South Dakota this afternoon and evening.

...MT into SD and vicinity...
An expansive upper ridge will remain anchored over much of the
southwest and central CONUS through the period. Very hot
temperatures are expected this afternoon from MT into the Dakotas.
Isolated to scattered storms within the hot and well-mixed
environment will result in a broad area of at least isolated
severe-wind potential. 5% wind probabilities have been expanded to
cover this potential, with 15% wind probabilities (equivalent to
categorical Level 2/Slight Risk) added across parts of MT and SD,
where terrain features may enhance storm coverage within the
favorable severe-wind environment.

For parts of western/central MT, convection that develops by
early/mid afternoon near the high terrain is expected to spread
eastward into the hot and well-mixed environment. This convection
may be aided by a low-amplitude midlevel vorticity maximum moving
around the periphery of the upper ridge. Increasing storm coverage
and gradually strengthening mid/upper-level flow may allow for one
or more outflow-driven clusters to develop and spread
east-northeastward into early evening, with a threat of severe
gusts. Localized gusts of 75+ mph cannot be ruled out, especially if
deeper convection is able to spread into areas where very deep
mixing and heating to near/above 100 F occurs prior to storm
arrival.

Farther east, very strong heating is expected across parts of
western/central SD, with temperatures in some areas potentially
rising to near/above 105 F. Low-level moisture will be relatively
sparse, but MLCAPE of near/above 1000 J/kg will be possible where
50s F dewpoints can be maintained within the well-mixed environment.
Initial storm development near the Black Hills will quickly become
outflow dominant as it spreads eastward, with an increasing threat
of severe gusts. Deep-layer shear will be somewhat favorable for
organized convection, and some guidance depicts development of a
persistent cluster or loosely organized MCS that moves eastward
across SD along a weak surface boundary. Should this occur, a
corridor of more organized severe-wind threat (with gusts
potentially near/above 75 mph) will be possible.

...Northern/eastern MN into WI and Upper MI...
Conditional severe potential remains evident across parts of the
Upper Midwest, though confidence regarding storm coverage and timing
remains very low within the weakly forced environment. Moderate to
strong destabilization is possible along/south of a surface front
that is forecast to extend from northeast ND into northern MN/WI by
late afternoon. Effective shear of 50+ kt will be more than
sufficient for storm organization, but most guidance remains rather
muted regarding potential for diurnal storm development. If storms
are able to develop during the afternoon or evening, then a threat
for hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado could evolve. Even
if diurnal storm development is limited, vigorous elevated storms
may evolve within a warm-advection regime near/north of the front
late tonight, which would pose a threat for hail and perhaps locally
damaging wind. Confidence remains too low to include more than
Level-1/Marginal Risk equivalent probabilities at this time.

...Northeast NV/northern UT into eastern ID...
Storm development is expected during the afternoon across parts of
northeast NV, along the western periphery of the upper ridge. These
storms will spread into adjacent parts of southeast ID and northwest
UT with time. Strong to locally severe gusts will be possible with
these storms as they move northeastward through a well-mixed
environment.

...South-central/southeast AZ...
High-based convection is again expected across southeast AZ during
the afternoon, with initial downburst potential. Modest enhancement
to easterly flow along the southern periphery of the upper ridge may
allow for localized strong to severe gusts to spread westward into
parts of south-central AZ, before convection weakens later Saturday
night.

..Dean/Squitieri.. 07/25/2026


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SPC Jul 24, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging
winds, and a tornado risk are expected this afternoon and evening
across portions of North Dakota into northern Minnesota.

...20z Update Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
Scattered thunderstorms ongoing along a differential heating axis
near the international border should continue to increase in
coverage and intensity this afternoon. Aided by increasing synoptic
ascent and deep-layer shear from the approaching upstream
low-amplitude trough and jet, supercells and organized clusters are
likely. Severe hail is expected, with some 2-3+ inches in diameter
possible with the more robust supercells that evolve initially.
Damaging wind gusts are also likely across eastern ND into northern
MN as storms begin to grow upscale. A few significant gusts are
possible given the large buoyancy and plume of steeper low-level
lapse rates apparent to the southwest across ND.

A couple of tornadoes are possible closer to the effective boundary,
where lower temperature-dewpoint spreads and stronger low-level
shear are expected. A CIG-1 wind area was included where the latest
HRRR/RRFS time-lagged runs show greater clustering which could
promote a sustained damaging wind or hail threat into this evening.
See MCD#1622 for short-term information.

...Carolinas...
Scattered thunderstorms along a weak surface cold front and
sea-breeze boundary across the coast and coastal plain will continue
to pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts this afternoon. 5% wind
probabilities were trimmed slightly to the west where storm
coverage/clustering are expected to be lower.

Elsewhere, the prior forecast remains valid with no changes.
Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over parts of TX, AZ and ID.
See the previous discussion and active mesoscale discussions for
more information.

..Lyons.. 07/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026/

...Dakotas/northern Minnesota...
Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a thin stratus
shield across central into northern MN ahead of a cluster of
thunderstorms over southern Manitoba. This thunderstorm activity is
associated with a weak mid-level vorticity max embedded within an
amplifying northwest-flow pattern over the Upper Midwest. A surface
trough extends southwestward into ND from a cyclone moving east
along the south shore of Hudson Bay.

A plume of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread a
warm and moist boundary layer along/east of the surface trough, with
MLCAPE increasing above 2000 J/kg across parts of North Dakota into
northern Minnesota by late afternoon. Forecast model soundings show
elongated hodographs thereby promoting storm organization, including
supercells and eventually a small cluster or two. Morning models
continue to indicate widely scattered (ND) to scattered storm
development (MN) later this afternoon into the evening. Large to
very large hail is possible with the supercells (1 to 3 inches in
diameter). Some tornado risk will likely focus across northern MN
where lower temperature-dewpoint spreads and enlarged hodographs
become co-located for a few hours. Any organized clustering could
result in localized corridors of greater severe-wind potential.
Some severe threat could persist as storms move into a larger
portion of northern/central Minnesota through late evening, with a
general weakening trend expected overnight due to increasing CINH
and weakening buoyancy.

Farther northwest, some guidance depicts isolated supercell
development west of the surface trough across the Canadian Prairies
during the late afternoon, which could then move into parts of
northern/central North Dakota within a northwesterly flow regime.

...Eastern ID into northeast NV...
A weak disturbance evident in water-vapor imagery will continue to
move northeast over northern UT into southeast ID this afternoon
along the periphery of the Four Corners upper ridge. Widely
scattered high-based storms will likely develop by late afternoon.
Forecast soundings show inverted-V profiles supporting ample
evaporative cooling with the stronger downdrafts. Isolated severe
gusts 60-70 mph are possible.

...Southern High Plains vicinity...
On the western periphery of residual early day precipitation/cloud
cover, a nearly stationary front draped from eastern New Mexico into
the Texas Panhandles is expected to become a focus for thunderstorm
development by late afternoon and early evening. While deep-layer
winds will be weak, strong boundary-layer heating/mixing will
support potential for localized downbursts.

...Southeast AZ...
Isolated to widely scattered storms are forecast to develop late
this afternoon and slowly propagate westward. A couple of the
stronger high-based downdrafts may yield a risk for severe gusts for
a few hours before this activity dissipates by late evening.

...Coastal Carolinas...
Near/south of a residual front, relatively strong heating of a
moisture-rich airmass will result in the development of moderate
buoyancy across the Carolina coastal plain. Scattered storm
development is expected by early/mid afternoon. A couple of
stronger water-loaded downdrafts may be capable of a localized
wind-damage risk.


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SPC Jul 24, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging
winds, and a tornado risk are expected this afternoon and evening
across portions of North Dakota into northern Minnesota.

...Dakotas/northern Minnesota...
Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a thin stratus
shield across central into northern MN ahead of a cluster of
thunderstorms over southern Manitoba. This thunderstorm activity is
associated with a weak mid-level vorticity max embedded within an
amplifying northwest-flow pattern over the Upper Midwest. A surface
trough extends southwestward into ND from a cyclone moving east
along the south shore of Hudson Bay.

A plume of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread a
warm and moist boundary layer along/east of the surface trough, with
MLCAPE increasing above 2000 J/kg across parts of North Dakota into
northern Minnesota by late afternoon. Forecast model soundings show
elongated hodographs thereby promoting storm organization, including
supercells and eventually a small cluster or two. Morning models
continue to indicate widely scattered (ND) to scattered storm
development (MN) later this afternoon into the evening. Large to
very large hail is possible with the supercells (1 to 3 inches in
diameter). Some tornado risk will likely focus across northern MN
where lower temperature-dewpoint spreads and enlarged hodographs
become co-located for a few hours. Any organized clustering could
result in localized corridors of greater severe-wind potential.
Some severe threat could persist as storms move into a larger
portion of northern/central Minnesota through late evening, with a
general weakening trend expected overnight due to increasing CINH
and weakening buoyancy.

Farther northwest, some guidance depicts isolated supercell
development west of the surface trough across the Canadian Prairies
during the late afternoon, which could then move into parts of
northern/central North Dakota within a northwesterly flow regime.

...Eastern ID into northeast NV...
A weak disturbance evident in water-vapor imagery will continue to
move northeast over northern UT into southeast ID this afternoon
along the periphery of the Four Corners upper ridge. Widely
scattered high-based storms will likely develop by late afternoon.
Forecast soundings show inverted-V profiles supporting ample
evaporative cooling with the stronger downdrafts. Isolated severe
gusts 60-70 mph are possible.

...Southern High Plains vicinity...
On the western periphery of residual early day precipitation/cloud
cover, a nearly stationary front draped from eastern New Mexico into
the Texas Panhandles is expected to become a focus for thunderstorm
development by late afternoon and early evening. While deep-layer
winds will be weak, strong boundary-layer heating/mixing will
support potential for localized downbursts.

...Southeast AZ...
Isolated to widely scattered storms are forecast to develop late
this afternoon and slowly propagate westward. A couple of the
stronger high-based downdrafts may yield a risk for severe gusts for
a few hours before this activity dissipates by late evening.

...Coastal Carolinas...
Near/south of a residual front, relatively strong heating of a
moisture-rich airmass will result in the development of moderate
buoyancy across the Carolina coastal plain. Scattered storm
development is expected by early/mid afternoon. A couple of
stronger water-loaded downdrafts may be capable of a localized
wind-damage risk.

..Smith/Moore.. 07/24/2026


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SPC Jul 24, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN MN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging
wind, and possibly a tornado are forecast during the afternoon and
evening across portions of North Dakota into northern Minnesota.

...Dakotas into northern MN...
Within an amplifying upper-level pattern, multiple low-amplitude
midlevel shortwave troughs are forecast to move east-southeastward
from the northern Rockies toward ND and northern MN through the
period. A surface trough will trail southwestward from a deep
surface cyclone that will move from northern MB/ON towards Hudson
Bay. A plume of relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will
overspread a warm and moist boundary layer along/east of the surface
trough, with MLCAPE increasing above 2000 J/kg across parts of ND
into northwest MN by late afternoon. Strengthening mid/upper-level
west-northwesterly flow will result in favorable deep-layer shear,
resulting in a conditionally favorable environment for severe
storms.

Guidance generally suggests that widely scattered storms will
develop along the surface trough by late afternoon across eastern
ND. Elongated hodographs and favorable instability will initially
favor supercell development, though some clustering will be possible
with time into the evening. Large to very large hail will be the
primary initial hazard. Some tornado potential could evolve with
persistent supercells, as low-level shear gradually increases from
late afternoon into the evening. Any organized clustering could
result in localized corridors of greater severe-wind potential. Some
severe threat could persist as storms move into a larger portion of
northern/central MN through late evening, with a general weakening
trend expected late in the period due to increasing CINH and
weakening buoyancy.

Farther northwest, some guidance depicts isolated supercell
development west of the surface trough across the Canadian Prairies
during the late afternoon, which could then move into parts of
northern/central ND within a northwesterly flow regime. This
scenario is more uncertain, but 5% wind/hail probabilities have been
expanded westward in response to this potential.

...Coastal Carolinas vicinity...
Relatively strong heating of a richly moist airmass (PW above 2
inches) will result in the development of moderate buoyancy across
parts of the Coastal Carolinas and southeast GA, in the vicinity of
a surface front. Scattered storm development is expected by
early/mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow will generally be weak, but
locally damaging downbursts and outflow winds will be possible
within the warm and very moist environment.

...Southern High Plains vicinity...
A nearly stationary front draped from eastern NM into the TX/OK
Panhandles is expected to become a focus for thunderstorm
development by late afternoon or early evening. Buoyancy is forecast
to remain modest, and deep-layer flow will be weak, so organized
storm potential currently appears low. However, strong
boundary-layer heating/mixing will support potential for localized
downbursts. While magnitude and coverage of the threat currently
appear rather limited, wind probabilities may eventually be needed,
if confidence increases in more than very localized severe-wind
potential.

...Parts of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies...
Widely scattered high-based storm development is expected this
afternoon from parts of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies,
along the periphery of an amplifying upper ridge over the Four
Corners region. Buoyancy and deep-layer shear are both expected to
remain weak, but strong to locally severe gusts will be possible
within the hot and well-mixed regime. Wind probabilities may
eventually be needed, if confidence increases in more than a very
localized/transient severe-gust threat.

..Dean/Jirak.. 07/24/2026


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