SPC Jun 26, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS PLATEAU INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY
AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO ADJACENT GREAT
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorm development is possible today,
particularly this afternoon into tonight across parts of the Ozark
Plateau into lower Ohio Valley and across parts of the northern
Rockies into adjacent Great Plains.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that amplification of mid/upper flow across the
eastern mid-latitude Pacific into western North America will
continue through this period, with large-scale troughing and an
embedded cyclonic circulation digging inland across the Pacific
Northwest through Great Basin and northern Rockies, downstream of
building ridging. As this occurs, ridging is likely to build across
the northern Great Plains through upper Mississippi Valley, but
broadly confluent, zonal flow is forecast to persist east of the
mid/upper Mississippi Valley, in the wake of a mid-level trough
accelerating east of the lower Great Lakes through New England and
the Canadian Maritimes. On the southern periphery of this regime, a
number of convectively generated perturbations may progress across
the Ozarks Plateau and lower Ohio Valley through Mid Atlantic today
through tonight.

In lower levels, a weak surface low is forecast to migrate
east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes into northern New England,
before weakening. This may be accompanied by a reinforcing influx
of somewhat cooler and drier area, in the wake of an
ill-defined/diffuse preceding front overspreading the northern Mid
Atlantic. To the west of the Appalachians, this boundary may become
augmented in locations by convective outflow and developing areas of
strengthening differential surface heating during the day. Across
the high plains, fairly significant surface cyclogenesis centered
across southeastern Montana is probable by 12Z Saturday, with
deepening surface troughing southward to the lee of the Rockies.

As a notable plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air spreads
east of the higher terrain, through much of the Great Plains,
initiation of stronger thunderstorm development may largely be
confined to the higher terrain, before propagating into the
deepening surface troughing across the adjacent plains. Otherwise,
to the east of the Great Plains, forcing for ascent and
destabilization along the weak front, and within low-level warm
advection to the east-southeast of the weak low, may provide support
for at least widely scattered strong to severe storm development.

...Ozark Plateau into lower Ohio Valley...
Higher coverage of potential strong to severe thunderstorm
development may generally focus across this region, aided by at
least a couple of convectively generated perturbations. There is
spread among the various model output, but it still appears that
this could include a fairly notable MCV migrating into the lower
Ohio Valley by around 19-21Z, along a better-defined segment of the
low-level baroclinic zone. With surface dew points forecast near
70F, and a convectively augmented belt of flow on the order of 30-50
kt in the 850-500 mb layer contributing to sufficient shear for
supercell structures, a couple of tornadoes appear possible in a
corridor roughly centered along the Ohio River. Otherwise, several
clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this afternoon and evening,
possibly accompanied by developing corridors of strong to severe
wind gusts.

...Northern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains...
Given a corridor of at least weak to moderate boundary-layer
destabilization near and to the lee of the higher terrain, forcing
for ascent and strengthening vertical shear downstream of the
digging large-scale troughing probably will become supportive of a
period of organized severe thunderstorm development late this
afternoon through evening. This may include supercells and
organizing clusters posing a risk for severe hail and wind, and at
least some potential for a tornado or two.

..Kerr/Chalmers.. 06/26/2026


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SPC Jun 26, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Evolving clusters of storms may still pose a risk for producing
strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the south central Great
Plains tonight.

...01Z Update..
A weak lee surface cyclone centered across the northern Texas
Panhandle and remnant surface boundary, reinforced by convective
outflow and differential afternoon surface heating, appear likely to
provide the primary focus for strongest thunderstorm development
into the overnight hours. Forcing for ascent associated with
low-level convergence and warm advection to the east of the low has
supported an evolving cluster of storms now propagating
east-southeastward into western Oklahoma, in the presence of 20 kt
westerly deep-layer mean flow. Due to veering of wind fields with
height in lower to mid-levels, deep-layer shear is strong, and
further intensification still appears possible as the surface cold
pool continues to strengthen, and updraft inflow increasingly
emanates from a boundary layer over west central Oklahoma
characterized by seasonably high moisture content with sizable
potential instability.

Upstream, forcing for ascent associated with a weak mid-level
perturbation appears to be contributing to increasing thunderstorm
development across parts of southwestern Kansas into the Texas
Panhandle. This activity may continue to grow upscale this evening,
with stronger convective development perhaps becoming focused along
outflow trailing the preceding cluster by late this evening, while
developing southeastward.

Some risk for a couple of tornadoes continues, but the risk for
strong, damaging wind gusts will increasingly become the primary
potential severe hazard through mid to late evening.

Otherwise, though it is appearing more uncertain, the remnant
baroclinic zone to the east of the surface low could still become a
focus for another evolving cluster of storms later tonight, as it
remains quasi-stationary or shifts slowly northward across parts of
northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas.

..Kerr.. 06/26/2026


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SPC Jun 25, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...WYOMING...AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through this evening
across parts of the southern/central Plains, with large hail and
severe winds possible. A more focused corridor of tornado potential
may exist this afternoon/evening across northern Oklahoma and
southern Kansas, where a strong tornado may occur.

...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was the addition of an Enhanced
risk (driven by CIG1 wind) across parts of western OK, the eastern
TX Panhandle, and far south-central KS. Thunderstorms are evolving
across the OK Panhandle and vicinity, ahead of a surface low/triple
point. Current expectation is for this activity and additional
storms to track east-southeastward through a hot/well-mixed air mass
-- favorable for strengthening/expanding cold pools with time.
Around 40 kt of effective shear should promote a mix of organized
clusters and supercells tracking east-southeastward into
increasingly rich boundary-layer moisture and a nocturnally
strengthening low-level jet. This evolution should favor a swath of
severe/damaging wind gusts (some upwards of 75 mph or greater).

A focused corridor of relatively greater tornado potential is
possible across parts of southwest KS into northwest OK -- along a
recovering outflow boundary. There was some consideration for higher
tornado probabilities here, though confidence in the exact corridor
was too low for the upgrade at this time.

Elsewhere, only minor adjustments were made to the severe
probabilities based on the latest convective and environmental
trends.

..Weinman.. 06/25/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026/

...Southern/Central Plains and Ozarks...
Strong convection continues at midday across south-central Kansas
into northern Oklahoma, augmenting a front that will continue to
settle south-southeastward toward the Texas Panhandle and western
Oklahoma by this evening. Some of this convection has been
organized/bowing on a small scale this morning and some diurnal
intensification could occur through peak heating as it progresses
southeastward, but the continued influence of proximal rain-cooled
air casts some uncertainty regarding intensity/peak risk timing.

The most likely scenario will be for the possibility of deeper
convective development later this afternoon on the west-southwest
flank of these lingering early day storms, where outflow
modifies/intercepts the surface front, and in north and east
proximity to a Panhandles surface low. Additional post-frontal
low-level upslope flow-related potentially severe storms are also
expected across southeast Colorado near the Front Range
southeastward into the Panhandle beginning mid/late afternoon.

This anticipated development later today is expected to be focused
in a narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability from
southeast Colorado east-southeastward into far southern Kansas and
northern Oklahoma. With strong deep-layer shear expected, initial
supercells should pose a threat for large hail, severe wind gusts
and potentially a tornado risk. But, convective mode will probably
tend to become mixed/messy quickly, as thunderstorms interact/merge
with each other. Low-level shear is forecast to markedly increase
near the surface boundary later today as a southerly low-level jet
strengthens. Resultant elongated/curved hodographs support the
potential for tornadoes, especially with any thunderstorms that can
remain at least semi-discrete. And given the enhanced effective SRH
near the boundary, a strong tornado appears possible if a supercell
mode can be maintained.

Higher-based convection will develop farther south into the
southern High Plains this afternoon, where a more deeply mixed
airmass suggests a greater threat for scattered severe/damaging
winds. But, some hail could also occur with the stronger cores. This
activity should tend to cluster and spread east-southeastward across
northwest Texas, the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, and eventually into
western Oklahoma this evening, while continuing to pose mainly a
severe wind threat before eventually weakening.

...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and New York...
50-60 kt mid-level westerly flow will spread eastward across the
Midwest/Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians through this
evening as an upper-level trough moves eastward over the Great
Lakes. A weak surface low should also develop eastward over the
lower Great Lakes, with a cold front advancing east-southeastward
across the Midwest/Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints generally range in
the 50s to low 60s F ahead of the front. Coupled with poor mid lapse
rates aloft and ongoing cloudiness, instability that develops by
this afternoon may tend to remain somewhat limited. Even so, strong
deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level jet will aid in
updraft organization, with a mix of multicell clusters and possibly
some marginal supercell structures developing this afternoon
along/ahead of the front. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds
both appear possible, and a tornado or two may also occur across
parts of Ohio into western/central Pennsylvania and western New York
where slightly stronger low-level flow and related shear should
exist. A somewhat higher/more focused severe potential appears to
exist across central/eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania from
mid-afternoon through early evening.

...Utah/Wyoming/Montana and far eastern Idaho...
Similar to yesterday, fairly high-based showers and thunderstorms
should develop this afternoon across the eastern Great Basin. With a
well-mixed boundary layer forecast with daytime heating, the main
threat with most of this activity should be isolated severe winds
with outflow-dominant convection as it spreads from Utah into
Wyoming this afternoon and evening. Have introduced a wind-related
categorical Slight risk for the potential of semi-organized storms
as a mid-level speed max interfaces with an unstable/well-mixed
boundary layer across Wyoming. Otherwise, occasional hail may also
exist farther north in southeast Idaho, Wyoming, and parts of
Montana, where cooler temperatures aloft, stronger mid-level
flow/deep-layer shear, and pockets of greater instability should
support more robust convection.


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SPC Jun 25, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should develop today across parts of
the southern/central Plains, with large hail and severe/damaging
winds possible. A more focused corridor of tornado potential should
exist this afternoon/evening across northern Oklahoma and southern
Kansas, where a strong tornado may occur.

...Southern/Central Plains into the Ozarks...
Severe potential today across the southern/central Plains will be
heavily influenced by ongoing convection this morning extending from
western KS into northeast OK. These thunderstorms are largely tied
to modest warm/moist advection at low levels, evidenced by recent
VWPs across this area (KDDC/KVNX/KINX) and the 12Z observed OUN
sounding. Latest surface analysis indicates a weak surface low is
present across southeast CO, with a front extending eastward from
this low across KS. A secondary boundary/warm front was also
analyzed along/near the KS/OK border, with generally 70s surface
dewpoints and greater instability present to its south. The
thunderstorms across western KS have recently strengthened, with
evidence of a leading supercell and some attempt at clustering just
to its west with a possible/developing MCV circulation. This
activity may pose at least an isolated hail/wind threat through the
morning as it tracks eastward across southern KS. But, it may tend
to remain somewhat elevated to the north of the warm front.
Accordingly, the overall severe threat with this convection is
uncertain. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1307 for more details on
the short-term severe threat across KS.

The net effect of the morning convection may be to reinforce the
boundary across northern OK/southern KS. Most guidance continues to
suggest that a narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability
will exist this afternoon from southeast CO (to the east of the weak
surface low) east-southeastward into southern KS/northern OK.
Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated across this area
later today as a weak mid-level shortwave trough ejects eastward
over the central High Plains. With strong deep-layer shear expected,
initial supercells should pose a threat for large hail and severe
gusts. But, convective mode will probably tend to become mixed/messy
quickly, as thunderstorms interact/merge with each other. Low-level
shear is forecast to markedly increase near the surface boundary
across southern KS/northern OK through the afternoon and evening as
a southerly low-level jet strengthens. Elongated/curved hodographs
suggest a threat for a few tornadoes will exist, especially with any
thunderstorms that can remain at least semi-discrete. And given the
enhanced effective SRH near the boundary, a strong tornado appears
possible if a supercell mode can be maintained.

Higher-based convection should develop farther south into the
southern High Plains this afternoon, where a more deeply mixed
airmass suggests a greater threat for scattered severe/damaging
winds. But, some hail could also occur with the stronger cores. This
activity should tend to cluster and spread eastward across northwest
TX, the OK/TX Panhandles, and eventually into western OK this
evening, while continuing to pose mainly a severe wind threat before
eventually weakening.

...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and New York...
50-60 kt mid-level westerly flow will spread eastward across the
Midwest/OH Valley into the central Appalachians through this evening
as an upper-level trough moves eastward over the Great Lakes. A weak
surface low should also develop eastward over the lower Great Lakes
today, with a cold front advancing east-southeastward across the
Midwest/OH Valley. Surface dewpoints generally range in the 50s to
low 60s ahead of the front this morning. Coupled with poor mid lapse
rates aloft and ongoing cloudiness, instability that develops by
this afternoon may tend to remain somewhat limited. Even so, strong
deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level jet will aid in
updraft organization, with a mix of multicell clusters and possibly
some marginal supercell structures developing this afternoon
along/ahead of the front. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds
both appear possible, and a tornado or two may also occur across
parts of OH into western/central PA and western NY where slightly
stronger low-level flow and related shear should exist. Confidence
in stronger instability and a greater severe risk remains too low
for higher hail/wind probabilities with this update.

...Utah into Wyoming and Montana...
Similar to yesterday, fairly high-based showers and thunderstorms
should develop this afternoon across the eastern Great Basin. With a
well-mixed boundary layer forecast with daytime heating, the main
threat with most of this activity should be isolated severe winds
with outflow-dominant convection as it spreads from UT into WY this
afternoon and evening. Some chance for occasional hail may also
exist farther north in southeast ID, WY, and parts of MT, where
cooler temperatures aloft, stronger mid-level flow/deep-layer shear,
and pockets of greater instability should support more robust
convection.

..Gleason/Jewell.. 06/25/2026


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