SPC Oct 4, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few rotating thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the
Florida Panhandle/far southern Alabama.

...20z Update...
No changes were made to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 10/04/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026/

...Florida Panhandle/Far Southern Alabama...
A nearly stationary surface front will reside across the Southeast
today, with a very moist airmass (total PWAT values of 2+ inches)
persisting along and to its south. Scattered showers/thunderstorms
will continue to develop south of the front this afternoon,
including across the northern Gulf. It is still possible that a weak
offshore surface low may form later today, with modest enhancement
to the low-level flow and effective SRH near a weak boundary draped
along or just offshore the FL Panhandle and far southern AL. Should
this occur, convection may have the potential to exhibit transient
low-level circulations mainly near the coast, with related
waterspout/brief tornado potential. However, the severe threat will
likely be constrained by poor lapse rates/weak instability, with
some guidance (namely recent RAP runs) suggesting that the modest
increase in low-level flow may not occur.


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SPC Oct 4, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few rotating thunderstorms are possible today across the coastal
Florida Panhandle.

...Florida Panhandle...
A stalled/slow-southeastward-moving surface front will reside across
the Southeast and Deep South today, with a very moist airmass
persisting along and to its south, featuring Precipitable Water
values in excess of 2 inches. Scattered showers/thunderstorms are
common early today south of the front, including across the northern
half of the Gulf. There are some guidance indications, most notably
recent NAM runs, that weak offshore surface low development may
occur today, with a related developing enhancement to the low-level
flow/SRH. Should this trend materialize, showers/thunderstorms will
have the potential to exhibit brief, transient low-level
circulations, mainly near the coast, with a related waterspout/brief
tornado potential.

..Guyer/Dean.. 10/04/2026


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SPC Oct 4, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few rotating thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the
northern Gulf Coast today, otherwise severe thunderstorms are not
expected.

... Synopsis ...

A midlevel shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes this
morning will help carve out/reinforce a larger-scale trough across
the eastern US. At the same time, a midlevel anticyclone will remain
in place across the western US. This pattern will favor
northwesterly flow across much of the eastern half of the country,
in turn supporting reinforcing shots of cooler air.

At the surface, weak cyclogenesis should support the development of
a cyclone across the far northern Gulf Coast or just inland across
southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. This weak low will
slowly move east during the day.

... Portions of the Florida Panhandle and the Adjacent Coastal
Waters ...

A stalled surface front will be draped across the Southeast today,
with a very moist airmass in place along and south of it. Forecast
soundings across the area indicate nearly moist thermodynamic
profiles from surface to the tropopause, with the 20261004 00 UTC
HREF having mean precipitable water values around 2.5" across most
of the Florida Panhandle. Given these moist vertical profiles,
conditional instability will be low today, with mean MUCAPE values
generally 500 J/kg or less.

Despite the meager instability, one consequence of the moist
vertical profiles will be that LCL heights will be very low --
generally at or below 500 meters. At the same time, forecast
soundings in areas to the east of the surface low show modest wind
curvature in the lowest 3 km. Thus, despite the meager instability,
forced convective showers/thunderstorms will have the potential to
exhibit brief, transient low-level circulations, especially over
coastal areas where surface friction is reduced. The threat should
slowly move east during the day as the surface low slowly moves
east.

..Marsh/Wendt.. 10/04/2026


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SPC Oct 4, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

... 01Z ...

Showers and the occasional thunderstorm will be possible this
evening along and south of a surface front stretched from the
Carolinas southwest toward the upper-Gulf coast of Texas. Limited
instability should preclude any severe potential.

Overnight a secondary cold front will move south into the southern
Plains. Cool surface temperatures and moist vertical profiles will
limit overall instability, but enough elevated instability may
develop to support an occasional thunderstorm.

The severe potential will remain low through the forecast period.

..Marsh.. 10/04/2026


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