Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the mid Missouri and mid
Mississippi Valleys. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible in
parts of the central Plains and from the Ohio Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic.
...Mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys...
A broad anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the
central U.S. today, as a subtle embedded shortwave trough moves
through the mid Missouri Valley. Ahead of this feature, a
quasi-stationary front will be in place from southern Iowa
east-southeastward into north-central Illinois. This boundary will
be the focus for convective development this afternoon. Surface
dewpoints along the boundary will be in the 70s F, which will result
in strong destabilization by afternoon. Surface-based convective
initiation is expected along the instability gradient during the
late afternoon to the south of Omaha. From these initial storms, a
line is expected to organize and move eastward across south-central
Iowa and far northern Missouri during the late afternoon and early
evening.
RAP forecast soundings ahead of the line at 00Z from Des Moines
southward into far northern Missouri have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500
J/kg range. Some directional shear is present in the low-levels, and
0-6 km shear is in the 30 to 35 knot range. This environment will be
favorable for bowing line segments capable of severe wind gusts. An
embedded supercell with a hail threat will also be possible. The
severe threat is expected to move eastward into northwest and
north-central Illinois during the evening.
...Central Plains...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today over much of the
western and central U.S. A subtle shortwave trough will move
northeastward into the central High Plains. Large-scale ascent
associated with the trough and topographic lift in the foothills of
the Rockies will be favorable for scattered convective initiation by
early afternoon. Thunderstorms will move northeastward into the
central High Plains and into a moderately unstable airmass. Some RAP
forecast soundings in east-central Colorado during the late
afternoon have 0-6 km shear around 25 knots with low to mid-level
lapse rates exceeding 7 C/km. This will likely support isolated
severe wind gusts and hail.
...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today over much
of the northeastern U.S. At the surface, an axis of moderate
instability will develop by afternoon from the Ohio Valley
east-southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Along and near the
instability axis, low-level convergence will be the primary focus
for convective initiation. Near and downstream of these pockets of
convergence, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop. The moderate instability with precipitable water values in
the 2 to 2.2 inch range should support a threat for isolated severe
wet downbursts.
..Broyles/Lyons.. 08/14/2026
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