SPC May 25, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST...FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD...AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today for parts
of the central Gulf Coast/Southeast, far west Texas and southern New
Mexico, central Plains into southwest Minnesota, the Minnesota
Arrowhead, and northern Rockies.

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon from NE into
southwest MN/northwest IA along a weak surface trough. Large-scale
ascent will remain negligible due to the close proximity to a
mid-level anticyclone situated over the lower MO Valley. However,
ample instability and adequate deep-layer shear may still yield a
localized risk for large hail/severe gusts with the stronger
multicells, before this activity weakens by late evening.

...Minnesota Arrowhead...
The glancing influence of an upper trough moving from Manitoba into
northern Ontario should encourage at least isolated thunderstorm
development this afternoon across the MN Arrowhead vicinity. Steep
mid-level lapse rates present on the 12Z INL observed sounding and
daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass will support
moderate to locally strong instability. Sufficient deep-layer shear
for updraft organization will foster an isolated risk for large hail
and damaging winds with the stronger cores.

...Central Gulf Coast/Southeast...
A weak MCV and associated upper trough will move inland over the
central Gulf Coast states today. Modest flow enhancement and minor
low-level hodograph curvature may aid in occasional strong/gusty
winds and perhaps a brief tornado with convection spreading
northward this afternoon. But, poor lapse rates aloft noted on 12Z
LIX/JAN/BMX/FFC observed soundings will likely temper the
development of more robust instability, and should limit the overall
severe risk.

...Northern Rockies...
An upper trough/low will overspread the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies as it digs southeastward through tonight. While
low-level moisture will remain limited, daytime heating will foster
weak buoyancy and the development of high-based convection across
the northern Rockies this afternoon. Steepened low/mid-level lapse
rates may support occasionally strong to severe downdraft winds with
this activity.

...Southern New Mexico/Far West Texas...
An upper trough over AZ late this morning will move slowly
north-northeastward across the Southwest through the period.
Thunderstorms that develop this afternoon across northern Mexico and
southwest NM will encounter a gradually destabilizing airmass
downstream into far west TX. Isolated strong to severe gusts may
occur as low-level lapse rates become steepened.

...Central Texas...
A weak MCV noted in visible satellite imagery late this morning is
slowly meandering across central TX. While additional convection
with locally gusty winds may develop this afternoon in its
proximity, weak shear should limit the threat for organized severe
thunderstorms.

..Gleason/Lyons.. 05/25/2026


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SPC May 25, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...PORTIONS OF FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO...NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible today
for parts of the central Gulf Coast, portions of Far West Texas and
southern New Mexico, Nebraska into southwest Minnesota, and the
northern Rockies.

...Central Gulf Coast...
A northward-moving MCV over southern MS to the east of an upper
trough will aid in the minor flow enhancement across this region
today. A few stronger thunderstorms may yield a localized wind
damage risk. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out given the moist
low levels co-located with small but favorably curved hodographs.
See MCD #852 for short-term details.

...Northern Rockies...
An upper trough immediately west of the Pacific Northwest this
morning will gradually approach the northern Rockies as it digs
southeastward into OR and northern CA through tonight. Diurnal
heating will foster weak buoyancy and the development of
quick-moving thunderstorms later today. Steepened low to mid-level
lapse rates may support a couple of more vigorous evaporatively
cooled downdrafts capable of localized severe gusts.

...Minnesota Arrowhead...
Glancing influence of a mid-level shortwave trough over ON will
overspread the MN Arrowhead later this afternoon. Steepened lapse
rates and adequate cloud-bearing shear may result in a couple of
stronger thunderstorms capable of a localized wind/hail risk.

...Central Great Plains and adjacent Middle Missouri Valley...
Model guidance continue to indicate scattered thunderstorms
developing late today into this evening from NE into southwestern
MN/northwest IA. Forcing for ascent will likely remain weak to
negligible due in part to close proximity to a mid-level anticyclone
situated over the lower MO Valley. However, ample instability could
yield an isolated risk for large hail/severe gusts with the stronger
multicells prior to this activity diminishing by late evening.

...Parts of Far West Texas into southern New Mexico...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over AZ with
a left-exit region of an upper jet situated over the border region
of southeast AZ eastward into Far West TX. Diurnal destabilization
and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will potentially support
localized severe gusts with the stronger downdrafts later this
afternoon into the early evening.

..Smith/Weinman.. 05/25/2026


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SPC May 25, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for organized severe thunderstorm development appears low
across much of the U.S. today through tonight.

...Discussion...
Amplification within the westerlies across the northern mid-latitude
Pacific is ongoing. Near the leading edge of this regime, a
significant short wave trough and embedded mid-level cyclone are now
digging toward the Pacific Northwest coast, and forecast to progress
inland across coastal areas later today through tonight. As this
occurs, the center of broad, weak troughing emerging from the
subtropical eastern Pacific is forecast to sharpen some, along a
negatively tilted axis across the southern Great Basin through
northern Mexican Plateau by daybreak Tuesday.

Downstream, weak troughing across eastern Texas and the western Gulf
Basin will tend to slowly shift north-northeastward toward the lower
Mississippi Valley, as a high remains prominent across the
subtropical western Atlantic. In higher latitudes, mid-level
ridging is forecast to continue to build to the east the Canadian
and northern U.S. Rockies. This will include further mid-level
height rises across the Missouri Valley through Upper Midwest and
adjacent Great Lakes region.

In lower levels, a cold front likely will advance inland across
Washington, Oregon and much of northern California, while surface
troughing deepens across much of the Great Basin and northern
Rockies through northern Great Plains. However, seasonably moist
boundary-layer air appears likely to generally remain confined to
portions of the southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley
through Southeast and Mid Atlantic.

...Minnesota Arrowhead/adjacent Upper Great Lakes...
Mid-level heights are forecast to continue to rise across the region
today, even as a fairly significant short wave trough and associated
forcing for ascent dig across northwestern Ontario, generally well
to the north of the upper Great Lakes region. Even so, convection
allowing and related machine learning guidance continue to suggest
that isolated thunderstorm development is possible as far south as
the Minnesota Arrowhead vicinity, in an environment that could
become supportive of a supercell. As a result, 5 percent severe
weather probabilities will be maintained. However, given the lack
of better available low-level moisture and the spread evident within
guidance concerning potential destabilization, these may be too
high.

...Central Great Plains and adjacent Middle Missouri Valley...
Calibrated thunderstorm probabilities from most ensemble output
suggest that widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable
by late this afternoon, in a corridor of stronger potential
boundary-layer destabilization within the lee surface troughing,
from portions of southwestern Nebraska through southwestern
Minnesota/northwestern Iowa. If inhibition associated with
continuing mid-level height rises and more substantive
lower/mid-tropospheric warming is overcome, thermodynamic profiles
may be conducive to locally strong to severe surface gusts and some
hail, particularly where a narrow corridor of better low-level
moisture is maintained across the northeastern Nebraska through
southern Minnesota vicinity.

...Parts of southwestern Texas into south central New Mexico...
Stronger deep-layer layer shear and forcing for ascent, within the
exit region of a strong subtropical jet nosing into the northern
Mexican Plateau, may support and enhance thunderstorm development
across parts of northeastern Chihuahua into adjacent portions of the
Rio Grande Valley by late this afternoon. This probably will be
rooted within a weakly unstable, but deeply mixed boundary layer
supportive of at least a risk for strong to severe wind gusts.

..Kerr/Chalmers.. 05/25/2026


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SPC May 25, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA...SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated supercell development may persist in a narrow corridor
across northeastern Nebraska into southwestern Minnesota through mid
to late evening before diminishing.

...01Z Update...

...Mid Missouri Valley...
Mid-level heights continue to build across much of the northern
Rockies and Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest. Primary forcing for
ongoing convective development appears to lift associated with weak
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, along and east of weak
northern Great Plains surface troughing. Low-level moisture return
has remained rather modest (with maximum surface dew points still in
the mid/upper 50s F) and confined to a narrow corridor, but this
appears to be contributing to CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg.
The onset of radiational surface cooling, coupled with warming
aloft, probably will result in rapidly increasing inhibition within
the next couple of hours. This should be accompanied by diminishing
convective trends, but it is possible that this could be slowed
somewhat by forcing on the nose of a nocturnally strengthening
low-level jet.

...Southern Appalachians...
As a remnant lower/mid-tropospheric mesoscale convective vortex
migrates north-northeastward across northwestern Georgia into the
southern Appalachians, modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs
are developing across the Piedmont of eastern Georgia into South
Carolina. This is where a recent increase in thunderstorm
development is ongoing in the presence of a seasonably moist
boundary-layer characterized by sizable CAPE. With the surface dew
points in the lower 70s enhancing low-level buoyancy and potential
near surface upward accelerations, an isolated tornado may not be
out of the question, before forcing spreads into cooler/more stable
air.

..Kerr.. 05/25/2026


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