SPC Feb 27, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over parts of the
Southeast and Florida Peninsula. Severe thunderstorms are not
currently forecast.

...Southeast/Florida...

Strong midlevel short-wave trough is currently digging southeast
across the Arklatex. This feature will advance into the central Gulf
states by 18z before shifting into GA/FL Panhandle/northeast Gulf by
early evening. Latest model guidance suggests scattered convection
will be ongoing near the primary synoptic boundary at the start of
the period, and while deep-layer flow will be more than adequate for
sustaining organized updrafts, buoyancy should be too weak to
warrant much risk of severe.

As the short wave digs southeast, a secondary surface boundary will
establish itself across the FL Peninsula, and this wind shift should
serve to focus convection, with some propensity for more
concentrated storms near the FL Atlantic coast. Models suggest
modest boundary-layer heating southeast of this boundary, and
forecast soundings exhibit 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE; however, midlevel
lapse rates will be somewhat marginal with values near 6 C/km. At
this time it appears any storms that mature near the east coast
should be limited by the poor 700-500mb lapse rates.

..Darrow/Chalmers.. 02/27/2026


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SPC Feb 27, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX TO NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms, a few severe, are expected to continue from
the ArkLaMiss into north-central Alabama this evening. A few storms
may produce hail and locally strong wind gusts.

...01z Update...

Notable midlevel short-wave trough is digging southeast across
northern OK/southern MO early this evening. Synoptic front has
settled south to a position from southeast TN-northern MS-central
AR. While LLJ is primarily focused off the NC coast, weak low-level
warm advection is noted across the Mid-south ahead of the
progressive short wave. Scattered convection has developed along
this corridor, and several supercells are noted from east central AR
to northern AL. Latest MRMS data suggests large hail is observed
with the most robust updrafts golf ball size hail has been reported
with a few of these supercells. While scattered convection will
continue ahead of the digging short wave, nocturnal cooling should
begin to affect updraft strength a bit such that overall intensity
of this activity is expected to gradually weaken. Even so, hail/wind
are expected through at least mid evening until low-level lapse
rates begin to adjust to cooling surface temperatures.

..Darrow.. 02/27/2026


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SPC Feb 26, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLAMISS
EASTWARD INTO WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail will be
possible from the ArkLaMiss into north-central Alabama, through
early/mid-evening.

...20z Update - ArkLaMiss/Deep-South...

Based on latest surface observation trends, the Slight risk (level 2
of 5) has been expanded a small amount eastward across portions of
west-central AL. Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 70s
amid low/mid 60s F dewpoints. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the
warm/moist boundary layer are supporting a corridor of around 1000
J/kg MLCAPE into west-central AL. This may support stronger/better
organized updrafts and a risk for large hail.

The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has also been expanded north and
eastward across northern and central AL. Trends in CAMs guidance
(specifically FV3/RRFS members) suggest a couple of storms may
develop further north. Furthermore, RAP forecast soundings appear to
be representing the boundary layer well, and suggest any storm
moving across northern into east-central AL could produce isolated
hail.

For more details on short term severe potential, reference Mesoscale
Discussion 119.

..Leitman.. 02/26/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026/

...Deep South including ArkLaMiss to north-central Alabama...
Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows scattered to
overcast cloud cover from southern AR/northern LA eastward into
eastern AL. Surface temperatures are gradually warming through the
mid 60s into the lower 70s deg F in areas void of extensive clouds,
mainly from west-central AL westward.

A mid-level disturbance over the central High Plains is forecast to
quickly move southeastward into the ArkLaMiss by late tonight. As
the upper system approaches, a cold front draped from southeast OK
eastward along the MS-TN border is forecast to accelerate
southeastward this evening and through much of the central Gulf
Coast states through tonight.

Modest mid-level cold-air advection will continue through the
afternoon and steepen 700-500 mb lapse rates across MS/AL. The
advection of the mid-level lapse rate plume and additional heating
will combine to increase buoyancy (ranging from 1500+ J/kg SBCAPE
west, to less than 500 J/kg east). Guidance is consistent in
showing weak low-level flow, but strong mid/high-level winds will
yield 40+ kt effective shear, supporting the potential for severe
storms including some supercells as storms develop and intensify
through mid/late afternoon. Both the prospects for appreciable
destabilization and probable widely scattered coverage of an initial
supercell storm mode, lend confidence for upgrading severe hail
probabilities (Slight Risk). A gradual waning in storm intensity is
expected through the evening as instability lessens and a transition
to less organized storm modes occur.


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SPC Feb 26, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLAMISS TO NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of hail will be possible from the
ArkLaMiss into north-central Alabama, mostly from mid-afternoon
through early/mid-evening.

...Deep South including ArkLaMiss to north-central Alabama...
Increasingly cyclonic flow aloft is expected as trough amplification
occurs with a shortwave trough spreading southeastward across the
south-central Plains, toward the Ozarks/ArkLaTex this evening, and
the lower Mississippi Valley late tonight. A plume of relatively
steep mid-level lapse rates will similarly advect southeastward atop
a modestly moist air mass to the south of a southward-spreading
front regionally. While southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL
will be modest-strength and tend to weaken over time, strong
mid/high-level winds will yield 40+ kt effective shear, supporting
the potential for severe storms including some supercells as storms
develop and intensify through mid/late afternoon. Severe hail is
expected to be the primary hazard.

..Guyer/Grams.. 02/26/2026


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