SPC Oct 15, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado
or two are possible today across parts of the mid Mississippi and
Ohio Valleys. Additional storms with isolated severe wind gusts will
be possible in parts of the southern Plains.

...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...
At mid-levels, a ridge will move eastward today into the Northeast,
as a large-scale trough moves into the Great Plains. Ahead of the
trough, a surface low will track northeastward from the mid
Mississippi Valley into the southwestern Great Lakes. Ahead of the
surface low, a warm front will move northward through the Ohio
Valley. To the south of the warm front, surface dewpoints will be in
the upper 60s and lower 70s F. This will enable an axis of
instability to develop by afternoon, with MLCAPE likely peaking
around 1000 J/kg. Ahead of the trough, a mid-level jet will
overspread the warm sector during the afternoon. This will create
moderate deep-layer shear over much of the Ohio Valley, which will
support isolated supercell development. In addition, RAP forecast
soundings in the Ohio Valley by mid afternoon have 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range suggesting
that a tornado or two will be possible. Short line segments capable
of isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible. Poor lapse
rates will be the main limiting factor for a greater severe threat
coverage and magnitude.

...Southern Plains...
An upper-level trough will move into the Great Plains today, as
mid-level flow remains southwesterly ahead of the trough. At the
surface, a cold front will advance southward across the southern
Plains, with the front located from west-central Texas into
southeast Oklahoma by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be
weak, low-level convergence along and near the front will result in
thunderstorm development. Storms will move east-southeastward across
a narrow corridor of instability, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak
in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. As low-level lapse rates steepen in
the afternoon, isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with
multicells. However, deep-layer shear will be marginal for organized
convection, and poor lapse rates will be a major limiting factor.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/15/2026


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SPC Oct 15, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening
across parts of the southern Plains. A marginal wind-damage threat
will also be possible in parts of the Ozarks, and from the southern
Ohio Valley into the northern Tennessee Valley.

...Southern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is
currently moving through west Texas within southwesterly flow aloft.
At the surface, a cold front is located from northwest Texas
extending east-northeastward into southern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. Thunderstorms are ongoing near the front in northwest
Texas, and this activity will likely continue to move
east-northeastward along the boundary this evening. Although
moderate instability is analyzed over parts of north Texas,
instability is weaker near the boundary, along the potential track
of the severe line segment approaching Wichita Falls, Texas. In
spite of this, RAP forecast soundings early this evening have 40 to
50 knots of southwesterly flow in the mid-levels, which will support
organized thunderstorm development. Although supercells will be
possible early this evening, it appears that the predominant mode
will be linear. The more intense line segments could produce
damaging wind gusts. The threat may persist into the late evening as
the line moves through southern and eastern Oklahoma. A marginal
threat may continue into the overnight period across part of the
Ozarks.

...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
On water vapor imagery, it appears that multiple weak shortwave
perturbations are moving through a ridge in the mid Mississippi and
Ohio Valleys. At the surface, a cold front is located from western
Tennessee extending northeastward into the central Appalachians.
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front with the greatest
convective coverage in southern Kentucky. These storms are located
near an axis of instability. Along this axis, the RAP has MLCAPE in
the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, and surface dewpoints are mostly in the
70s F. Although deep-layer shear is somewhat limited, the moist and
unstable environment may be enough for isolated damaging wind gusts
over the next hour or so.

..Broyles.. 10/15/2026


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SPC Oct 14, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and some tornado threat are
possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern
Plains. A marginal wind-damage risk is possible across parts of the
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

...Southern Plains/Southern High Plains...
Extensive showers and thunderstorms continue at midday across the
majority of Oklahoma to the Ozarks, and on a more scattered basis
across west/northwest Texas. This is within a very moist air mass
(with prevalent 2+ inch Precipitable Water values except the High
Plains) to the south of a synoptic front, with convective outflows
continuing to effectively augment the front including recent/fresh
outflows across southern Oklahoma/western north Texas.

An upper-level trough centered near the Four Corners areas will
overspread the central Rockies, with height falls and strengthening
winds aloft overspreading the central Plains and southern High
Plains. This will probably aid in some air mass recovery and
modification/northward flux of the outflow-related effective
boundary, with prevalent insolation at midday across the Texas Low
Rolling Plains and far southern Oklahoma to portions of central
Arkansas (and points south).

Thunderstorm redevelopment/intensification is expected along the
effective boundary, particularly across southwest Oklahoma and the
Texas Low Rolling Plains and Texas South Plains. Moderately strong
flow aloft (40-50 kt effective shear) will support some initial
supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Low-level
winds will generally relax today, but should again strengthen
toward/after sunset. Some tornado threat will exist, but upscale
quasi-linear growth and bowing segments will likely be more
prevalent this evening, with damaging gusts becoming the primary
risk.

...Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic States...
A semi-organized band of thunderstorms exists at midday near the
Ohio River along the Indiana/Ohio border vicinity. Relatively
cloud-free skies exist ahead of these storms through much of
Kentucky/southern Ohio toward the Appalachians. Heating combined
with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s is expected
to contribute to pockets of instability with MLCAPE approaching
1000-1250 J/kg by mid/late afternoon. As storms intensify
regionally, steepening low-level lapse rates coupled with
strengthening west-southwesterly winds with height (yielding up to
35-40 kt of deep-layer shear) appear supportive of isolated severe
storms capable of damaging wind gusts through early evening.

..Guyer/Jirak.. 10/14/2026


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SPC Oct 14, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and potentially a tornado
threat will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of
the southern Plains. A marginal wind-damage threat will also be
possible from parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic .

...Southern Plains/Southern High Plains...
Early morning surface observations and regional radar imagery show a
wavy outflow boundary from southern IL across southeast MO, northern
AR, and eastern/central/southwest OK into the TX South Plains.
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing north of this outflow, but
predominantly south of the primary cold front that extends from the
northern TX Panhandle east-northeastward across northwest and
north-central OK and then northeastward through southeast KS,
central MO, and northern IL. Southerly low to mid-level flow is
expected to persist throughout the day, and the associated warm-air
advection across the outflow boundary will likely result in showers
and thunderstorms continuing from the TX Panhandle eastward across
western and central OK for most of the day. Southward progression on
the outflow will slow this morning, with the boundary eventually
returning northward as a warm front later this evening. The cold
front is forecast to remain stationary for much of the period.

When and where the outflow boundary ends its forward progression is
uncertain, which introduces uncertainty regarding where the best
severe potential will exist today. The portion of the outflow
boundary across the southern High Plains appears to already have
lost much of its character, so there is relatively higher confidence
in the location of the severe potential across that region.
Expectation here is for daytime heating to destabilize the airmass
east of the stalled outflow where temperatures could reach the mid
80s amid mid to upper 60s dewpoints. Moderate buoyancy and effective
shear from 40 to 50 kt will support initial supercell structures
capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Upscale growth into one or
more linear bowing segments is possible with time. Primary threat
will transition to damaging wind gusts as this occurs.

A more complex and uncertain scenario exists farther north from
northwest TX into east-central/southeast OK. Isolated strong to
severe storms are possible along and south of the outflow boundary.
The strongest buoyancy is expected across south-central/southeast OK
where mid 70s dewpoints will remain in place. As previously
mentioned, the outflow is expected to retreat back northward as an
effective warm front later this afternoon and evening. Additional
strong to severe storms are possible as this occurs as well as later
this evening as eastward-progressing linear clusters move into this
moist and unstable airmass. A strengthening low-level jet will
support a low-probability tornado risk with any more cellular warm
sector development this evening, particularly across southwest into
south-central OK where vertically veering profiles are anticipated.

...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms across southeast MO and southern
IL are forecast to continue eastward today. Daytime heating combined
with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s is expected
to contribute to pockets of moderate instability with MLCAPE
approaching 1000-1250 J/kg by mid-late afternoon. The ongoing storms
may intensify, with an increase in coverage possible as well.
Steepening low-level lapse rates coupled with strengthening
west-southwesterly winds with height (yielding up to 35-40 kt of
deep-layer shear) appear supportive of isolated severe storms
capable of damaging wind gusts into evening.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 10/14/2026


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