SPC Dec 15, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities are low today.

...Pacific Northwest...

100+kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate inland along the
WA/OR coast around 16/00z. Low-amplitude short-wave trough will
induce strong height falls near the international border ahead of
this feature, coincident with a notable surface front that will
surge inland after 21z. While profiles will cool and steepen at
midlevels, forecast soundings are not particularly buoyant either
side of the trough, and the prospect for deep convection capable of
generating lightning appears low. While the thunderstorm potential
appears low, weak midlevel convection is possible and a flash or two
can not be ruled out. This, however, does not warrant a categorical
risk for thunderstorms during the day1 period.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/15/2025


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SPC Dec 15, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...01z Update...

Northwesterly flow is deepening across the southern FL Peninsula as
the primary synoptic front surges toward the FL Straits. Isolated
showers are lingering across this region, with even a few flashes of
lightning near West Palm Beach. However, this activity should
continue to wane then focus well offshore over the next few hours.

00z sounding from UIL is quite stable this evening with poor lapse
rates noted through 6km. Late tonight elevated buoyancy may increase
near the WA coast such that weak convection is able to develop ahead
of approaching short-wave trough. If lightning is noted with this
activity it will remain quite sparse.

..Darrow.. 12/15/2025


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SPC Dec 14, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0954 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

Dry and stable conditions will prevail over most of the CONUS today,
with a few small exceptions. A strong cold front sagging southward
across TX might result in isolated afternoon thunderstorms over
south TX. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms could affect
south FL this afternoon as the same front weakens and approaches the
area. And finally, a few lightning strikes could occur inland
across western WA late tonight as a strong shortwave trough
approaches. No severe storms are anticipated in any of these areas.

..Hart/Weinman.. 12/14/2025


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SPC Dec 14, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Discussion...
A prominent upper trough will continue to spread southeastward from
the Midwest/Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast by
tonight. Surface high pressure and related cold/dry continental
trajectories will be increasingly prevalent east of the Rockies.
Near a south/southeastward-advancing cold front, isolated
thunderstorms will remain possible early today over the northwest
Gulf, while a few flashes of lighting are also possible with weak
convection across the southern Florida Peninsula, before flow veers
and stronger convergence shifts offshore. Lastly, a few lightning
flashes could also occur late tonight near coastal Washington within
the warm/moist conveyor preceding an approaching shortwave trough
and cold front.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 12/14/2025


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