LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind
gusts may also occur in parts of the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley,
lower Ohio Valley and Arizona.
...Central and Northern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over
the central and northern Plains. At the surface, a 1005 mb low is
located over far southwest Kansas with a trough extending northward
across western Kansas and western Nebraska. An axis of low-level
convergence is analyzed across eastern Colorado and far western
Nebraska, along which a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is
ongoing. Ahead of this line, the RAP has moderate instability in
place over much of the central Plains. In addition, the WSR-88D VWPs
at Goodland and Dodge City have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. This
will be favorable for a severe threat as the line moves eastward
across western Kansas and western Nebraska this evening. Severe wind
gusts will be concentrated along the more intense parts of the line,
and isolated large hail will be possible with rotating cells within
the line itself...see MCD 1564. The line is expected to remain
organized as it moves into central and southern Kansas during the
mid to late evening, where instability is locally stronger.
Further north into the northern Plains, a cold front is located from
northwest South Dakota northeastward into north-central North
Dakota. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are mostly in the mid
to upper 60s F, and the RAP has a pocket of strong instability with
MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. A cluster of severe storms is
ongoing just to the northeast of the instability max within an area
of strong low-level convergence. Regional WSR-88D VWPs in central
North Dakota have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots, which will support
supercell development with a potential for large hail and severe
wind gusts...see MCD 1565. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter will be possible with the strongest of cores.
...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley...
A very moist airmass is in place from the Ozarks into the mid
Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, where surface dewpoints are
mostly in the mid to upper 70s F. Near the highest dewpoints, the
RAP shows an axis of strong instability located from northeast
Arkansas into western Kentucky, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in
the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. A line of strong to severe storms is
ongoing near the instability axis, and should persist for a few more
hours. This line will have potential for severe wind gusts.
Additional storms with wind-damage potential will be possible over
the lower Ohio Valley and in the Ozarks.
...Southeast Arizona...
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early this evening across far
southeast Arizona, along an axis of low-level convergence. Near this
axis, surface dewpoints are from the mid 40s to mid 50s F, and
low-level lapse are very steep. This could support isolated severe
gusts with the stronger multicells.
..Broyles.. 07/10/2026
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Thursday, July 9, 2026
SPC Jul 9, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern
Plains. Severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Ozarks, mid
Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and
Arizona.
...Mid Atlantic...
Hot and humid condition are present once again today over parts of
the Mid Atlantic region, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and
temperatures rising through the 80s. A weak shortwave trough
passing across the central Appalachians will aid in the development
of scattered afternoon thunderstorms over eastern WV/western VA
southern PA, with storms tracking eastward through early evening.
Sufficient westerly flow aloft and moderate CAPE values will result
in scattered damaging winds over this area. Cloud cover in
southeast PA/NY/DE lends some uncertainty to severe threat that far
east, but storms are not expected to arrive in that area for several
hours, allowing time for the clouds to erode somewhat.
...Central High Plains...
Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based thunderstorms will form
over the mountains/foothills of CO/WY and spread eastward through
the afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings suggest parameters
favorable of locally damaging wind gusts with this activity, with an
increasing risk as storms build eastward into greater low-level
moisture. Several 12z CAMS suggest a linear MCS maintaining strong
intensity into the night into western KS, with a continuing risk of
damaging winds.
...ND/SD...
A convectively aided shortwave trough is moving eastward across
ND/southern Manitoba. Thunderstorms are expected to intensify by
late afternoon ahead of this feature from eastern ND into western
SD. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and ample
CAPE, along with favorable deep-layer shear for supercells. Large
hail and damaging winds will be possible.
...MO/IL/KY/IN...
The remnants of an overnight MCS over MO will continue tracking
eastward today into a very moist and moderately unstable air mass
over parts of IL/IN/KY. This feature is weakening with time, but
some mesoscale organization persists with a weak MCV noted over
east-central MO. This may be sufficient to promote re-development
of storms later today. If this occurs, the strongest cells could
pose a damaging wind threat.
Low-level warm advection on the western flank of this system will
result in the development of thunderstorms over western/central MO
by late afternoon or early evening. Forecast soundings in this
corridor show CAPE and shear profiles that would be favorable for
supercell structures capable of damaging winds and perhaps hail. An
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
..Hart/Chalmers.. 07/09/2026
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SPC Jul 9, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Valid 091300Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...
CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern
Plains. Severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Ozarks, mid
Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Arizona.
...Central High Plains into the Central Plains...
A similar thermodynamic environment to yesterday is expected across
the central Rockies today, with scattered afternoon thunderstorm
development anticipated. The presence of a low-amplitude shortwave
trough could lead to greater storm coverage today versus yesterday.
Moist post-frontal easterlies will help offset mixing across much of
the region, keeping dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s across
east-central/northeast CO, with higher dewpoints farther east into
southern NE and western/central KS. Moderate westerly flow aloft
will support organized storm structures into this more buoyant
environment, with an attendant threat for strong to severe gusts
with the stronger bowing segments. There is some potential for a
contiguous line of storms from the NE Panhandle across eastern CO if
widespread cold pool amalgamation is realized. Uncertainty regarding
convective evolution precludes higher probabilities with this
outlook, but increased probabilities may be needed later if forecast
confidence increases.
...Northern Plains...
A somewhat separate convective regime is expected across the
northern Plains versus farther south. Here, strong heating of a
moist airmass beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support
robust buoyancy this afternoon, with MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg
anticipated. The better forcing for ascent will remain north of the
region and some convective inhibition may linger, but convergence
along a modest cold front and/or pre-frontal trough/low will likely
result in at least isolated thunderstorms. Strong buoyancy combined
with effective bulk shear around 30-35 kt should support a few
supercells. Large to isolated very large hail and strong downdrafts
are possible within the more organized storms.
...Lower MO Valley into the Lower OH Valley...
An MCS is currently tracking southeastward through central MO, with
occasionally strong gusts noted on its leading edge. Continued
eastward progression away from the low-level jet, coupled with the
decreasing strength of the jet, will likely lead to a weakening of
this MCS this morning. However, the moist airmass downstream will
diurnally destabilize, likely resulting in a reintensification of
the MCS and/or development of new storms along its leading edge.
Additional development is possible in the wake of this MCS, amid
low-level moisture convergence along a potential differential
heating boundary. Vertical shear will be weak, but moderate/strong
buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates will support strong cold
pools and the potential for damaging gusts.
...Mid-Atlantic...
A moist airmass will remain in place across the Mid-Atlantic today,
characterized by afternoon dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Airmass destabilization is expected by the early afternoon, with
moderate to strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE from 1500 to 2000 J/kg)
likely. A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over TN/KY is
forecast to progress northeastward, interacting with the moist and
unstable airmass to support thunderstorms. While the thermodynamic
characteristics of the airmass remain similar to the last few days,
increased large-scale ascent and slightly stronger mid-level flow
attendant to the shortwave will likely support greater storm
coverage and intensity. Moderate vertical shear will support a
predominantly outflow-dominant multicellular mode, with damaging
wind gusts as the primary risk, particularly in areas where few
clouds allow for more heating and steeper low-level lapse rates.
...Lower Great Lakes into northern New England...
Moderate westerly/southwesterly flow aloft at the base of a
shortwave trough moving across Ontario and Quebec will extend from
the Lower Great Lakes region through New England this afternoon. A
modest cold front associated with the shortwave will shift
eastward/southeastward into the region as well, interacting with the
warm, moist and unstable airmass in place to support scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon. Poor mid-level lapse rates will keep
buoyancy modest, but the moderate westerly/southwesterly flow aloft
could still support some stronger bowing segments capable of
damaging gusts.
...Southeast Arizona...
Mid-level moisture will support afternoon thunderstorm development
across the higher terrain of southeast AZ/southwest NM.
Southwestward storm motion associated with modest mid-level
easterly/northeasterly flow could take a few of these storms into
the hot and deeply mixed airmass across southeast AZ. Strong
downdrafts are possible with any stronger storms.
..Mosier/Thornton.. 07/09/2026
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SPC Jul 9, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern
Plains. Severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Ozarks, mid
Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Arizona.
...Central and Northern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the central and
northern Plains today. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable
airmass will be in place from the Dakotas southward into Nebraska,
where surface dewpoints will mostly be in the 60s F. As surface
temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop across much of
the region. Along and near the instability axis, MLCAPE is forecast
to increase into the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. As instability peaks
late this afternoon, low-level convergence will likely become
maximized along a surface trough from the western Dakotas southward
into eastern Colorado. This will aid convective initiation, with
several clusters developing and moving eastward across the central
and northern High Plains. In the vicinity of the instability axis,
moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rate will
support a threat for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail.
Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible
across parts of central and northern North Dakota where instability
and deep-layer shear will be favorable for supercells.
Further south into parts of western and central Kansas, an
east-to-west axis of low-level moisture will be in place. Some model
forecasts suggest that an organized line of storms will develop and
move eastward along this axis during the early to mid evening.
Severe wind gusts will be possible with this line of storms.
...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley...
A very moist airmass will be in place today from the Ozarks eastward
into the lower Ohio Valley, where surface dewpoints will be in the
mid to upper 70s F. In response to surface heating, moderate to
strong instability is expected to develop by afternoon across parts
of the mid Mississippi Valley. Some model solutions have an axis of
low-level convergence located from central Missouri eastward to
southern Indiana, suggesting that convective coverage could be
maximized along this corridor. The instability, along with steep low
to mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for severe wind gusts
with any line segment that can become organized.
...Mid-Atlantic...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the southern
Appalachians today and approach the Mid-Atlantic. Ahead of this
feature, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place with surface
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F. This will contribute to a
pocket of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms
that develop in the higher terrain of the central Appalachians will
move eastward into the Mid-Atlantic during the late afternoon and
early evening. Forecast deep-layer shear appears sufficient to
support a severe threat. The instability and steep low-level lapse
rates will contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts with the
stronger multicells.
...Southeast Arizona...
An axis of instability is forecast to develop today across southeast
Arizona. Near this axis, low-level convergence will become maximized
during the afternoon, which will result in isolated to scattered
convective initiation. Storms that form near the instability axis as
low-level lapse rates peak in the late afternoon could produce
isolated severe wind gusts.
..Broyles/Moore.. 07/09/2026
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