SPC Jul 16, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
TX...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AZ...SOUTHEAST MT...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OR
INTO SOUTHERN WA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds are possible for portions of the northern
Rockies/High Plains, Pacific Northwest, and Arizona into the early
overnight hours. A brief tornado or two may also occur across parts
of south-central Texas.

...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...

Severe probabilities have been removed from the Northeast states
with the 01z update. The 00z OKX RAOB indicated ample inhibition,
which should suppress convection the remainder of the evening.
Despite strong deep-layer northwesterly flow and modest midlevel
lapse rates supporting elevated instability, it is unlikely
additional convection will develop overnight as a midlevel shortwave
impulse increasingly moves offshore over the Atlantic.

Some guidance suggests that convection ongoing over southern Lower
MI may continue to develop/percolate southeast overnight across Lake
Erie and into northeast OH/northwest PA within strong northwesterly
mid/upper flow. The 00z PIT RAOB shows steep lapse rates and large
instability. However, inhibition should increase with loss of
daytime heating. An isolated strong storm producing small hail
cannot be ruled out, but overall severe potential appears limited
given time of day and nebulous forcing for ascent.

...Central Texas...

Rounds of thunderstorms will continue overnight as lobes of
convectively enhanced vorticity maxima rotate around the mid/upper
low centered over west-central TX. Low-level warm advection will
persist through the night, maintaining rich boundary layer moisture,
maintaining at least modest low-level instability. Vertically
veering low-level wind profiles will maintain 0-1 km SRH around
100-200 m2/s2, and a tornado or two will remain possible.

...AZ...

Strong thunderstorms could produce locally damaging/severe gusty
outflow winds through late evening. Reference MCD 1628 for
information on short term severe potential.

...MT/WY...

Severe probabilities have mostly be removed from WY and confined to
MT, where modest instability overlaps with strong effective shear
magnitudes. Isolated strong wind gusts remain possible through late
evening as convection shifts east toward a better low-level lapse
rate environment.

...WA/OR...

Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms will persist tonight
across central OR into south-central WA. A belt of 30-40 kt
effective shear magnitudes may provide sufficient support within the
weakly unstable airmass for a couple of strong storms. Steep lapse
rates will favor strong outflow winds with this convection.

..Leitman.. 07/16/2026


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SPC Jul 15, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ARIZONA...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
There is a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Isolated damaging winds
appear possible for portions of northern New England, the northern
Rockies/High Plains, Pacific Northwest, and Arizona. A brief tornado
or two may also occur across parts of south-central Texas.

...Northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast...
Recent surface analysis places a cold front from northern ME
southwestward into northern NY before arcing westward across
southeastern Ontario and west-northwestward across northern MI and
far northern WI into central MN. Eastern portion of this front is
expected to push southeastward through the Northeast today, moving
ahead of a low-amplitude and progressive shortwave trough currently
moving through eastern Ontario into far southern Quebec. Large-scale
ascent associated with this wave will spread across the region, but
warm temperatures aloft will likely limit thunderstorm coverage
across much of the region. A band of low-topped showers and
isolated/brief thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon
across northern New England, where forcing for ascent will be the
strongest. Overall buoyancy will be modest, but steepening low-level
lapse rates, a unidirectional/westerly wind profile with height
through mid levels, and 30-40 kt of flow around 1-2 km AGL will
support the potential for locally damaging wind gusts.

Farther south in the northern Mid-Atlantic, warm and moist
conditions will persist south of the front. However, warm mid-level
temperatures may prevent the airmass from fully destabilizing, with
lingering convective inhibition likely. Given this inhibition and
displacement farther south of the stronger forcing for ascent,
robust convective development remains highly uncertain.
Additionally, residual smoke could also limit heating, keeping
convective inhibition in place. That being said, strong deep-layer
westerly flow and steep mid-level lapse rates would support strong
outflow and perhaps even isolated hail with any storms that can
develop and mature.

...Northern Wyoming into Southern Montana...
Recent satellite imagery shows a weak vorticity maximum over eastern
ID. This vorticity max is forecast move northeastward today across
the northern Rockies and into the adjacent northern High Plains.
Diurnal heating across the higher terrain coupled with
the glancing influence of this subtle disturbance should foster the
development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Weak to moderate
instability is forecast, with a relatively deep and well-mixed
boundary layer across lower elevations. Scattered thunderstorm
coverage could result in some upscale growth into a loosely
organized cluster with cold pool organization, and a risk for
isolated severe wind gusts into the evening. However, the overall
severe threat should be tempered by modest deep-layer shear and
limited storm duration.

...Pacific Northwest...
Multiple rounds of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon along and east of the Cascades from central OR into
southern WA. The first round during the afternoon will be aided by
orographic influences and a weak shortwave trough preceding a closed
upper low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. High cloud bases
and a deeply mixed boundary layer will support the potential for a
few strong gusts with this activity. Another round of storms is
possible later this evening/overnight as another weak shortwave
trough rounds the upper low as the low itself also drifts closer to
the coast. Very dry low to mid-levels will persist throughout the
evening/overnight, with the potential for isolated strong gusts
remaining possible.

...South-Central Texas...
Weak mid-level low over south-central TX will only drift slightly
westward today, remaining largely in place within the very moist
airmass over the region. Recent EWX VAD profiles show about 30 kt of
southerly flow between 1-3 km along the eastern periphery of this
low. Resulting hodographs show just enough low-level curvature to
support brief tornadoes given the tropical airmass in place.

...Arizona...
Weak east-northeasterly mid-level flow is forecast today across AZ,
which is on the southern periphery of upper ridging extending across
much of the central CONUS. Daytime heating of a seasonably moist
low-level airmass across southern/central AZ will yield modest
instability by mid afternoon. Initial development is anticipated
over the Mogollon Rim and higher terrain of southeast AZ, before
subsequently spreading westward into the lower deserts. A deeply
mixed boundary layer across the lower elevations could support
isolated strong to severe gusts.

..Mosier/Squitieri.. 07/15/2026


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SPC Jul 15, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ARIZONA...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
There is a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Isolated damaging winds
appear possible for portions of northern New England, the northern
Rockies/High Plains, Pacific Northwest, and Arizona. A brief tornado
or two may also occur across parts of south-central Texas.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Hot temperatures are forecast south of a front that will be draped
across southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic by peak
afternoon heating. Coupled with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low
70s, this will contribute to a moderately unstable airmass, with
MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg probable. The strongest mid-level height
falls/forcing for ascent associated with a shortwave trough over
Ontario/Quebec into New England are expected to remain generally
north of the surface front. Therefore, robust convective development
along/south of the boundary in the northern Mid-Atlantic remains
highly uncertain. Another factor that could limit thunderstorm
initiation is the potential for more muted instability across the
warm sector due to smoke from upstream wildfires.

With continued uncertainty regarding initiation, have maintained the
Marginal Risk across the Mid-Atlantic with no changes. However, on
the condition that surface-based thunderstorms develop, the presence
of seasonably strong mid-level winds and resultant 40-50+ kt of
effective bulk shear would support supercells/multicells capable of
both severe hail and damaging winds.

...Northern New England...
Within the zone of strongest forcing for ascent associated with a
mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly eastward from southern
Ontario/Quebec into New England today, a band of low-topped showers
and thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon in a weakly
unstable environment. Steepening low-level lapse rates, a
unidirectional/westerly wind profile with height through mid levels,
and 30-40 kt of flow around 1-2 km AGL will support the potential
for locally damaging wind gusts, assuming convection develops and
can become surface based.

...Northern Wyoming into Southern Montana...
A weak/embedded mid-level vorticity maximum evident on water vapor
satellite imagery over the northern Great Basin this morning will
move northeastward today across the northern Rockies and adjacent
High Plains. Diurnal heating across the higher terrain coupled with
the glancing influence of this subtle disturbance should foster the
development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Weak to moderate
instability is forecast, with a relatively deep and well-mixed
boundary layer across lower elevations. Recent guidance continues to
show some potential for upscale growth into a loosely organized
cluster with cold pool organization and a risk for isolated severe
wind gusts into the evening. However, the overall severe threat
should be tempered by modest deep-layer shear.

...Pacific Northwest...
Isolated to scatted thunderstorms should develop this afternoon
along and east of the Cascades from central OR into southern WA.
This convection will be aided by orogrpahic influences and modest
large-scale ascent preceding a closed upper low off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest. Recent NAM/RAP forecast soundings show a deeply
mixed boundary layer developing across this region through peak
afternoon heating, with weak MLCAPE present. Enhanced southwesterly
mid-level flow should support sufficient deep-layer shear for some
updraft organization, and isolated severe gusts may occur with the
stronger cores as they spread north-northeastward through the
evening.

...Arizona...
Weak east-northeasterly mid-level flow is forecast today across AZ
on the southern periphery of upper ridging extending across much of
the central CONUS. Daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level
airmass across southern/central AZ will yield weak to moderate
instability by mid afternoon with a very well-mixed boundary layer.
This environment should support isolated strong to severe gusts as
convection initially develops over the Mogollon Rim and higher
terrain of southeast AZ, before subsequently spreading westward into
the lower deserts. However, a more organized severe wind threat will
likely be limited by weak deep-layer shear.

...South-Central Texas...
A weak mid-level low over southwest TX this morning should make only
slow westward progress through the period across the southern High
Plains. Modest winds at low levels veer to southwesterly with height
at mid levels per recent VWPs from KDFX/KEWX. Up to 100 m2/s2 of 0-1
km SRH may be sufficient for some low-level rotation and perhaps a
brief tornado or two with ongoing convection given a very moist
low-level airmass. This threat may continue through the day as the
boundary layer gradually destabilizes with filtered daytime heating.

..Gleason.. 07/15/2026


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SPC Jul 15, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEW ENGLAND...THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
There is a conditional risk for severe storms capable of large hail
and damaging winds in the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Isolated occurrences of mainly damaging wind gusts appear
possible in northern New England, the northern Rockies, and Arizona.

...Synopsis...

A high-over-low blocking pattern will remain anchored over central
North America with an embedded shortwave trough and associated 70 kt
mid-level jet streak translating through New England and the
northern Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon. That system will be
attended by a surface front, which will settle south into the
central Mid-Atlantic during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle.

...Mid-Atlantic...

Temperatures in the 90s to around 100 are forecast south of the
front, which coupled with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s,
will contribute to a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon with
MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. The strongest height falls/forcing for
ascent associated with the shortwave trough are expected to remain
north of the surface frontal zone, and as a result, the extent of
thunderstorm development along the boundary remains uncertain.
Another factor that could limit storm development is the potential
for instability reduction along the front due to the existence of
wildfire smoke, as depicted in recent HRRR runs.

Given the uncertainty in storm initiation and sustenance, a level
1/Marginal Risk will be maintained with this forecast. However, on
the condition that surface-based storms develop, the presence of
seasonably strong mid-level winds and resultant 40-50+ kt of
effective bulk shear will support supercells capable of large hail
and damaging winds.

...Northern New England...

Within the zone of strongest forcing for ascent associated with the
shortwave trough, a band of low-topped showers and thunderstorms is
expected to develop during the afternoon amidst a marginally
unstable environment. Steepening low-level lapse rates and a
unidirectional wind profile with 35-40 kt winds as low as 1.5-2.0 km
AGL will support the potential for locally damaging wind gusts.

...South-central Montana and north-central Wyoming...

Heating along the high terrain coupled with the glancing influence
of a subtle disturbance is expected to foster widely scattered
afternoon thunderstorms amidst a moderately unstable air mass
featuring a relatively deep, well-mixed boundary layer. A number of
the 00Z CAMs indicate the potential for some cold pool organization
with an attendant risk for isolated severe wind gusts into the
evening.

...Arizona...

Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected from the
Colorado and San Francisco Plateaus into the Sonoran Desert amidst a
moderately unstable air mass with a deep and well-mixed boundary
layer. That thermodynamic environment will be supportive of isolated
strong downbursts; however, more organized severe wind gust
potential is expected to be limited by the weak vertical shear that
is forecast.

..Mead/Lyons.. 07/15/2026


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