Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS
INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms are possible from late tonight into the
early morning on Thursday from parts of west and northwest Texas
northeastward into Oklahoma.
...Southwest TX into Central OK...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough
immediately west of Baja California while a progressive flow regime
prevails across the northern half of the Lower 48. The
aforementioned upper disturbance is forecast to quickly move east
across the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts and into west/northwest TX
by early Thursday morning.
A reservoir of partially modified Gulf moisture (60s deg F surface
dewpoints) resides over the coastal plain of TX this morning. As
the upper trough approaches the southern Great Plains tonight,
strengthening low-level flow will advect this moisture northwestward
into parts of northwest TX into central OK during the 08-12 UTC
period. Although the primary cyclone will remain near the
CO-NM-OK-KS-TX border region while deepening considerably, the
attendant warm front will serve as the main low-level feature of
interest. Warm advection/isentropic lift will favor isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late tonight over
west into northwest TX and eventually into central OK. Model-based
soundings imply elevated parcels and MUCAPE ranging from 500-1000
J/kg amidst strong deep-layer shear. An isolated risk for large
hail may accompany the stronger storms along with the possibility of
localized severe gusts.
..Smith/Wendt.. 01/07/2026
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