SPC Nov 5, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2026

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely today and tonight.

...20z Updates...
Only minor adjustments were made to thunderstorm coverage based on
trends in radar. See previous discussion below for more information.

..Halbert-E.. 11/05/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026/

...Mid Atlantic to southern New England...
Broad southwesterly flow aloft is present today over the eastern
states, with a moist surface air mass in place along and east of the
Appalachians. Forcing will be weak through the day, but an
approaching upper trough over the central US will result in
increasing thunderstorm potential after dark - especially from the
Mid Atlantic region northward into southern New England. Strong
winds aloft will result in fast-moving storms, but nocturnal cooling
will limit surface-based convective threat and the overall risk of
damaging winds. Nevertheless, an occasional storm could pose some
concern for gusty winds.

...KS/OK...
A mid-level shortwave trough and associated pocket of cold mid-level
air will result in steep lapse rates and scattered afternoon
thunderstorms over parts of southern KS and northern OK.


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SPC Nov 5, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery reveals several shortwave troughs
within the active upper pattern across the CONUS. A southern-stream
wave currently moving eastward across the TX Panhandle vicinity is
forecast to become increasingly phased with another wave dropping
through the Mid MS Valley, resulting in a unified upper trough from
the Great Lakes/Ontario through the southern Plains by 00Z Friday.
Northern-stream upper ridging west of this upper trough is forecast
to move eastward over more of the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies
while another quick-moving shortwave deepens as it moves into the
Intermountain West.

Recent surface analysis places a cold front from far western Quebec
southward into far western PA before continuing south-southwestward
to a weak low over the TN/NC border vicinity. Modest moisture exists
downstream from this front, with mid 60s dewpoints across much of VA
and low 60s dewpoints as far north as the Hudson Valley. Modest
northward moisture advection is anticipated ahead of this cold front
as it moves eastward today, supporting showers and thunderstorms
from the Mid-Atlantic into the New England.

...Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Northeast this
morning into the early afternoon, ahead of a weak low-amplitude
shortwave trough. Additional thunderstorms are possible this evening
and overnight, beginning along and ahead the front across the
northern Mid-Atlantic before spreading northward into southern New
England and southward into the rest of the Mid-Atlantic and
Carolinas. Buoyancy will be modest, tempered by poor lapse rates,
widespread cloud cover and post peak heating frontal timing.
Consequently, predominantly shallow, short-lived updrafts are
anticipated. However, given the presence of moderately strong
deep-layer southwesterly flow, any deeper convection could briefly
produce damaging gusts. Anticipated isolated and brief nature of any
severe threat currently precludes the need for any severe
probabilities.

...OK/TX...
As mentioned in the synopsis, the southern-stream wave currently
moving eastward across the TX Panhandle vicinity is forecast to
continue eastward across the OK vicinity today. Cool mid-level
temperatures will support weak elevated instability, with a few
thunderstorms expected through the day and into the evening.

Scattered elevated thunderstorms are also expected over Deep South
TX, as the southern end of the cold front undercuts a moist air mass
near the Gulf. Weak shear and buoyancy should preclude a severe
risk.

..Mosier/Moore.. 11/05/2026


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SPC Nov 5, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
An upper low over the Great Lakes is forecast to strengthen through
the day today as it merges with a weaker shortwave trough emanating
from the mid MS Valley. East of the mid-level cyclone, a belt of
enhanced southerly flow aloft will gradually overspread portions of
the Appalachians and Atlantic Seaboard into the evening and
overnight hours. A broad surface low over the lower St Lawrence
valley will weaken as a second low forms over the eastern Great
Lakes. An associated diffuse cold front is forecast to move slowly
southeastward across the Appalachians toward the Atlantic Coast.

...Carolinas to the Mid Atlantic...
Ahead of the cold front a moist air mass will remain in place with
dewpoints in the mid 60s F. Low-level warm air advection will favor
cloudiness and only modest buoyancy with continued weak southerly
surface winds. The stronger flow aloft is expected to arrive later
in the diurnal cycle and will mainly be focused behind the cold
front. Given the weak overall forcing and modest buoyancy,
relatively isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected.
Additional storms may develop along the front later in the evening,
but little severe potential is expected owing to the weak buoyancy
and poor overlap with stronger vertical shear.

...Southern New England...
Farther north, a moist but cooler boundary layer will likely be in
place ahead of the cold front from MA to southern NY. The humid
environment could support very weak buoyancy immediately ahead of
the front amid strengthening flow aloft. Frontal forcing is not
expected to be overly strong, but could support a shallow convective
band ahead of the front late in the evening and overnight. Some
potential may exist for intermittent strong gusts to reach the
surface, but confidence remains quite low.

...OK/TX...
A weak vorticity max will move across OK on the southwestern flank
of the larger-scale eastern trough. Cool mid-level temperatures will
support weak elevated instability, with a few thunderstorms expected
through the day and into the evening. Scattered elevated
thunderstorms are also expected over Deep South TX, as the southern
end of the cold front undercuts a moist air mass near the Gulf. Weak
shear and buoyancy should preclude a severe risk.

..Lyons/Weinman.. 11/05/2026


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SPC Nov 5, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with sporadic wind gusts and a brief tornado will
remain possible across parts of the Southeast.

...Synopsis...
Evening water vapor imagery showed an upper low over MN/WI with a
second upper low, moving from the Four Corners into the central
Rockies. A pronounced shortwave trough over MS and AL is forecast to
move eastward ahead of a belt of enhanced mid-level flow that
extends over the lower third of the CONUS between the two more
dominant upper-level cyclones. An associated surface low over the
Great Lakes will move eastward as a trailing cold front moves across
the Midwest and Southeast.

...Southeast...
Evening radar and satellite observations show a band of
predominately disorganized convection has evolved along and ahead of
the cold front from eastern TN, to south-central AL, while a more
isolated convective cluster was ongoing over eastern GA. The
environment ahead of the front remains moist, with mid 60s to low
70s F surface dewpoints across much of the Southeast. However, lapse
rates remain quite poor generally around 6 C/km (00z BMX sounding)
which, along with the loss of diurnal heating is limiting buoyancy.
Still, area RAP profiles show around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE persisting
into the evening across eastern AL and into GA, which should be
sufficient for occasional stronger updrafts.

The enhanced flow aloft is also supporting marginal deep-layer shear
(30-35 kt) for storm organization with clusters and transient
supercells having been observed. Despite deep and low-level shear
forecast to weaken overnight, modestly curved hodographs may support
occasional rotation, with a low-end risk for a brief tornado or
damaging gust this evening. Eventually storms should weaken as the
environment becomes increasingly stable over eastern GA and the
western Carolinas overnight.

..Lyons.. 11/05/2026


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