SPC Jul 29, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and possibly a tornado or
two are expected this evening from parts of the Mid-Atlantic
southward into the Carolinas and far northeastern Georgia. A few
severe wind gusts may also occur early this evening in parts of the
central High Plains.

...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Northeastern Georgia...
Water vapor imagery currently shows a mid-level trough extending
southward from the lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and
Carolinas. At the surface, a 1001 mb low is located over Maryland
with a cold front extending southwestward from the near the low into
the southern Appalachians. Moist air is present ahead of the front
with surface dewpoints in the 70s F. Scattered strong to severe
storms are ongoing across this moist airmass from Delaware southward
into eastern Virginia, central North Carolina and far northeastern
Georgia.

Along this corridor, the RAP shows an axis of moderate instability,
where MLCAPE is currently estimated to be in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg
range. Along and near the instability axis, WSR-88D VWPs from
Moorehead City, North Carolina west-southwestward into far northeast
Georgia have 0-6 km shear near 30 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative
helicity around 200 m2/s2. This environment will continue to support
a potential for supercells with an isolated tornado threat. This
threat should persist for another hour or two. In addition, RAP
forecast soundings near the instability axis have precipitable water
values around 2 inches, suggesting that the more organized line
segments could produce wet downbursts capable of severe gusts.

...Central High Plains...
A mid-level ridge is currently located over the central Rockies,
according to water vapor imagery. A subtle shortwave trough appears
to be moving through the ridge across central Colorado. Ahead of
this feature, large-scale ascent is supporting a broken line of
strong to severe storms from southwest Nebraska into far eastern
Colorado. The RAP currently has an axis of strong instability
analyzed from far southern Nebraska westward into far northeast
Colorado, along which MLCAPE is estimated in the 2000 to 4000 J/kg
range. As the storms move eastward into the strong instability over
the couple of hours, isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible.

..Broyles.. 07/29/2026


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SPC Jul 28, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST
TENNESSEE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS...AND OVER EASTERN
COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and a tornado threat are
expected today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southward into the
Carolinas. A few severe wind gusts and hail may also occur this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central High Plains.

...20Z Update...
The forecast appears to be on track, and minimal changes were needed
with this update. The MRGL and SLGT risk areas in the central High
Plains were expanded slightly eastward in western NE and KS. The
primary concern will be upscale-growing clusters capable of
producing severe wind gusts as storms move into an increasingly
warm/moist air mass this evening.

Farther east, severe probabilities were trimmed behind
southeastward-moving storms in the central Appalachians. The primary
concern continues to be damaging wind gusts, especially with any
organized clusters/bowing structures that evolve.

..Weinman.. 07/28/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026/

...East TN into central VA/NC...
Late morning thunderstorms persist over parts of this region, with
pockets of precip and clouds. This will somewhat limit afternoon
heating across NC, but upstream heating and ample moisture should
spread eastward. This will aid in the re-development of intense
thunderstorms later today across the mountains of east TN/KY into
southwest VA and western NC. Forecast soundings show considerable
low and deep layer shear, favorable for supercell and bowing
structures. Damaging winds are the main concern, but hail and a few
tornadoes are also possible if supercells are maintained. These
storms will spread southeastward into central NC during the evening
with a continued damaging wind risk.

...Central VA into parts of PA/DE/NJ...
Persistent cloud cover is limiting daytime heating so far from
eastern PA eastward to the coast. However, visible satellite
imagery shows some clearing developing from central PA into central
VA, where temperatures are climbing rapidly into the 80s. This
trend will likely spread eastward and aid in the development of
scattered afternoon storms. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates
and sufficient winds aloft will promote damaging winds in the
strongest cores. Occasional supercell structures could also result
in a tornado or two and/or hail.

...Eastern CO...
An upper ridge is centered over northern NM, with 20-30 knot
westerly flow over northern CO/southern WY. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected to form over the mountains and foothills today,
spreading eastward into the plains by late afternoon. Ample
moisture and moderate CAPE over the mountains, along with sufficient
vertical shear, may support hail in the strongest cells. As the
activity moves eastward into a hot air mass, locally damaging winds
will become a risk. This activity may spread into western NE/KS
this evening before weakening.


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SPC Jul 28, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST
TENNESSEE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND CAROLINAS...AND OVER
EASTERN COLORADO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and a tornado threat are
expected today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southward into the
Carolinas. A few severe wind gusts and hail may also occur this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central High Plains.

...East TN into central VA/NC...
Late morning thunderstorms persist over parts of this region, with
pockets of precip and clouds. This will somewhat limit afternoon
heating across NC, but upstream heating and ample moisture should
spread eastward. This will aid in the re-development of intense
thunderstorms later today across the mountains of east TN/KY into
southwest VA and western NC. Forecast soundings show considerable
low and deep layer shear, favorable for supercell and bowing
structures. Damaging winds are the main concern, but hail and a few
tornadoes are also possible if supercells are maintained. These
storms will spread southeastward into central NC during the evening
with a continued damaging wind risk.

...Central VA into parts of PA/DE/NJ...
Persistent cloud cover is limiting daytime heating so far from
eastern PA eastward to the coast. However, visible satellite
imagery shows some clearing developing from central PA into central
VA, where temperatures are climbing rapidly into the 80s. This
trend will likely spread eastward and aid in the development of
scattered afternoon storms. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates
and sufficient winds aloft will promote damaging winds in the
strongest cores. Occasional supercell structures could also result
in a tornado or two and/or hail.

...Eastern CO...
An upper ridge is centered over northern NM, with 20-30 knot
westerly flow over northern CO/southern WY. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected to form over the mountains and foothills today,
spreading eastward into the plains by late afternoon. Ample
moisture and moderate CAPE over the mountains, along with sufficient
vertical shear, may support hail in the strongest cells. As the
activity moves eastward into a hot air mass, locally damaging winds
will become a risk. This activity may spread into western NE/KS
this evening before weakening.

..Hart/Moore.. 07/28/2026


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SPC Jul 28, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and a tornado threat are
expected today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southward into the
Carolinas. A few severe wind gusts and hail may also occur this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central High Plains.

...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas and southern Appalachians...
A loosely organized band of storms, with some semi-discrete
storms/prior supercell on its southwestern flank around sunrise,
will continue to progress east-southeastward across the Cumberland
Plateau toward/across the Appalachians spine early today. Some
severe risk may exist this morning with the aforementioned storms on
the southwest flank including along the Kentucky/West
Virginia/Virginia border vicinity, but storm-associated cloud cover
and precipitation will otherwise be an important and somewhat
uncertain factor for destabilization with northeastward extent
regionally later today.

The region will be influenced by some additional large-scale
amplification of the upper trough along the East Coast, with a belt
of notably strong (45-55 kt around 500 mb) northwesterly flow aloft,
as sampled by upstream 12z observed RAOBs from the likes of
Wilmington OH and Pittsburgh PA, that is expected to spread
southeastward toward the region today. A moist air mass will persist
ahead of the east-southeastward-moving cold front, with the
strongest destabilization across the southern Appalachians vicinity
and Carolinas. Recovery/destabilization is generally expected across
Virginia in the wake of the early day convection, allowing for
probable severe-storm development into mid/late afternoon. Severe
storms may occur farther north across the Mid-Atlantic within a more
narrow warm sector.

Ample deep-layer shear and moderate low-level shear/SRH will support
a combination of supercells and organized line segments, with a more
discrete mode, and longer duration thereof, expected with the
southwesternmost extent of storms regionally from southern Virginia
into the Carolinas/southern Appalachians. Some tornado potential
will exist aside from a more prevalent damaging wind risk this
afternoon and evening as storms spread toward coastal areas.

...Central High Plains...
A ridge-peripheral low-amplitude/subtle shortwave trough will
influence scattered thunderstorm development later today.
Thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain and drift
eastward into the lower elevations. Moderate buoyancy across the
High Plains and upwards of 30-40 kt (stronger northward regionally)
effective shear will support sustained storms. Steep low-level lapse
rates and surface-temperature dewpoint spreads near 30 degrees F
will support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts, aside from
some hail this afternoon and evening.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/28/2026


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