SPC Jul 30, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be
possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and
northern Plains, but especially across parts of South Dakota,
Nebraska, and north-central Kansas. Isolated severe wind gusts may
also occur across parts of the Southeast.

...Northern/Central Plains...
Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing within a modest
warm-air advection regime from central SD into northeast NE. These
storms will likely weaken over the next few hours as the low to
mid-level flow decreases. This should allow for sufficient airmass
recovery/destabilization by the late afternoon across much of the
region. Recent surface analysis depicted 70s dewpoints into far
south-central NE, as well as pockets of greater low-level moisture
in western SD and ahead of a cold front in northeast ND. Heating
within this moist environment to the west of the ongoing storms (and
associated cloudiness) is expected to result in a corridor of strong
to very strong buoyancy by this afternoon.

Current satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving across
southeast MT and WY. Expectation is for this wave to continue
eastward, interacting with the destabilized and buoyant airmass
across the north/central Plains to support thunderstorm development.
Initial development appears most likely across western/central SD
where the ascent attendant to this shortwave trough will be
augmented by mesoscale lift near a surface low currently over
southwest SD. A more cellular mode is likely early in the convective
cycle, with a trend towards a more clustered/linear mode thereafter.
Primary threat will be strong gusts with some isolated hail
possible, particularly early during the more cellular mode.

In addition to the low over southwest SD, recent surface analysis
placed another low over northwest KS. Weak troughing between these
lows, likely sharpened by baroclinicity driven by differential
heating, could act as a favorable corridor for forward propagation
if a more coherent linear structure materializes.

...Eastern ND into northern MN...
Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon from eastern ND
into northern MN along a southeastward-progressing cold front
forecast to move through the region. Moderate buoyancy will precede
this front, but vertical shear will be modest, limiting storm
organization and duration. Even so, buoyancy will be strong enough
for occasional damaging gusts and isolated instances of hail.

...Northern/Central High Plains...
Pockets of moderate instability may develop in parts of eastern
Colorado, western Kansas and eastern Montana. Although large-scale
ascent will be weak in these areas, topographic forcing will aid
convective initiation. During the mid/late afternoon into evening,
isolated to scattered storms will move east-southeastward into the
lower elevations, with localized strong to severe wind gusts and
hail possible. Slightly stronger vertical shear is possible across
north-central/northeast MT, where a few more organized storms are
possible.

...Central Gulf Coast into northern FL/southern GA...
A modest baroclinic boundary extends from central AL southeastward
through southern/southeast GA. Dewpoints to the south of this
boundary are in the 70s, with temperatures already in the upper
80s/low 90s. Moderate to strong buoyancy will continue to build
across this region south of the boundary, with low-level convergence
contributing to scattered to widespread thunderstorm development.
Vertical shear will remain weak, and a largely disorganized
multicellular storm mode is expected. Even so, water loading within
some of the stronger storms that develop and mature could result in
isolated damaging wind gusts through late afternoon/early evening.

..Mosier/Moore.. 07/30/2026


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SPC Jul 30, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be
possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and
northern Plains, but especially across parts of Nebraska and South
Dakota. Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur across parts of
the Southeast.

...Central and Northern Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota...
An amplifying shortwave trough evident in water vapor imagery over
Wyoming this morning will continue east and then a bit southeastward
through tonight toward the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest.
A cold front will become more southeastward-progressive later today
and tonight, intercepting a moisture-rich air mass across Kansas
into Nebraska/South Dakota.

Early day scattered precipitation/cloud cover will tend to abate
and/or shift away from the region later today, allowing for ample
insolation near a surface trough and ahead of the front.
Mid-tropospheric winds will be weak, but a few initial supercells
could occur in vicinity of south-central South Dakota into central
Nebraska amidst somewhat stronger effective shear. Some severe hail
will be possible early in the developmental cycle, but damaging
winds should be an increasing and more common concern with the
expectation that storms will cluster, grow upscale, and progress
southeastward this evening, aided by an increasingly strong
southwesterly low-level jet.

Further west into parts of the High Plains, pockets of moderate
instability may develop in parts of eastern Colorado, western Kansas
and eastern Montana. Although large-scale ascent will be weak in
these areas, topographic forcing will aid convective initiation.
During the mid/late afternoon into evening, isolated to scattered
storms will move east-southeastward into the lower elevations,
including the possibility of storms spreading from southern
Saskatchewan into northeast Montana, where a somewhat more
severe-favorable environment will exist. Localized strong to severe
wind gusts and hail will be possible regionally.

...Southeast/Florida...
A very moist air mass will persist regionally to the south of a
generally west/east-oriented front. Scattered thunderstorms are
already ongoing this morning particularly across northern Florida
and nearby offshore waters, with additional storm development
expected to the north near and just south of the front where
stronger insolation/destabilization is expected. Some of the
stronger storms that develop and mature will be capable of isolated
damaging wind gusts through late afternoon/early evening.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/30/2026


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SPC Jul 30, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...IN
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND IN PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible this evening into the early overnight from parts of
northern Minnesota southwestward into the western Dakotas.
Additional severe gusts could occur in northern Florida and in parts
of the Intermountain West.

...Northern Minnesota/Dakotas/Western Nebraska...
A subtle shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the
northern High Plains. A sufficiently moist airmass is located ahead
of the trough from the central and western Dakotas, where surface
dewpoints are generally in the upper 50s and 60s F. Scattered strong
thunderstorms are ongoing near a gradient of moderate instability
from central North Dakota southwestward into western South Dakota.
Along this gradient, surface-temperature dewpoint spreads are
generally in the 30 to 40 degree F range, and the RAP has 0-3 km
lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This should support an
isolated potential for severe wind gusts early this evening. Hail
could also occur with the stronger cells. An isolated severe threat
could persist into the late evening and early overnight in parts of
northern North Dakota and northern Minnesota, as the shortwave
trough moves eastward across the region.

...Northern Florida...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough
along the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, an outflow boundary is
located across northern Florida, along which scattered thunderstorms
are ongoing. Surface dewpoints to the south of the outflow boundary
are mostly in the 70s F. This is contributing to moderate
instability, with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg
range. This thermodynamic environment may support a potential for
isolated severe gusts early this evening.

...Intermountain West...
A mid-level shortwave trough is currently evident on water vapor
imagery over southeastern Idaho. Scattered thunderstorms are being
supported by large-scale ascent associated with this trough. In
addition, a small pocket of instability is analyzed by the RAP over
southeast Idaho, where MLCAPE is around 1000 J/kg. The instability
combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates could support
isolated severe wind gusts early this evening.

..Broyles.. 07/30/2026


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SPC Jul 29, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening in the northern Plains. Severe wind gusts will
also be possible across southern Georgia and northern Florida, as
well as the Great Basin/northern Intermountain West.

...20Z Update...
The forecast appears to be on track, and minimal changes were needed
with this update. Southward-spreading storm clusters in southern
GA/northern FL will continue to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts
through the afternoon into this evening. Any areas of upscale growth
will pose the greatest severe-wind risk prior to the onset of
nocturnal boundary-layer cooling. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch #532
for more information.

Farther west over the northern Plains, a persistent cluster of
thunderstorms and related cloud coverage over eastern MT/western ND
cast uncertainty on the overall severe risk. However, as a
subtle/low-amplitude midlevel wave currently over central MT
overspreads the area, the ongoing activity and additional storm
development along differential heating zones could pose an
increasing risk of severe wind gusts and isolated hail into this
evening. See MCD #1797 for more details.

Additional thunderstorms forming along the high terrain from CO
northward into eastern WY may also pose some risk of strong-severe
wind gusts as storms move eastward into a warm/moist air mass over
the High Plains. However, the severe-wind risk will be largely
dependent on the development of robust cold pools and upscale
growth, and weak forcing for ascent limits confidence in where this
risk will be maximized.

..Weinman.. 07/29/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026/

...GA/FL...
Latest surface analysis shows a weak cold front sagging southward
across GA. A very moist and unstable air mass is present along and
south of the front, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and full heating
expected. This will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg
and scattered thunderstorm development. Sufficient northwesterly
mid-level flow of 15-25 knots will help storms propagate into north
FL by early evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible
in the stronger cells due to water loading and some momentum
transfer. If outflows can congeal, a more organized damaging wind
risk could develop late this afternoon and early evening before
weakening after dark.

...MT/ND...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along
a weak surface boundary near the MT/ND border. These storms will be
in a hot and moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE around 2000
J/kg. As this activity spreads northeastward across western ND, the
combination of a deep sub-cloud layer, steep low-level lapse rates,
and sufficient flow aloft will pose the risk of damaging wind gusts.


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