SPC May 25, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA...SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated supercell development may persist in a narrow corridor
across northeastern Nebraska into southwestern Minnesota through mid
to late evening before diminishing.

...01Z Update...

...Mid Missouri Valley...
Mid-level heights continue to build across much of the northern
Rockies and Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest. Primary forcing for
ongoing convective development appears to lift associated with weak
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, along and east of weak
northern Great Plains surface troughing. Low-level moisture return
has remained rather modest (with maximum surface dew points still in
the mid/upper 50s F) and confined to a narrow corridor, but this
appears to be contributing to CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg.
The onset of radiational surface cooling, coupled with warming
aloft, probably will result in rapidly increasing inhibition within
the next couple of hours. This should be accompanied by diminishing
convective trends, but it is possible that this could be slowed
somewhat by forcing on the nose of a nocturnally strengthening
low-level jet.

...Southern Appalachians...
As a remnant lower/mid-tropospheric mesoscale convective vortex
migrates north-northeastward across northwestern Georgia into the
southern Appalachians, modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs
are developing across the Piedmont of eastern Georgia into South
Carolina. This is where a recent increase in thunderstorm
development is ongoing in the presence of a seasonably moist
boundary-layer characterized by sizable CAPE. With the surface dew
points in the lower 70s enhancing low-level buoyancy and potential
near surface upward accelerations, an isolated tornado may not be
out of the question, before forcing spreads into cooler/more stable
air.

..Kerr.. 05/25/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TSj6Nf

SPC May 24, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of hail/wind may occur across the Middle
Missouri Valley/Siouxland later this afternoon into evening, with
isolated severe storms also possible this afternoon/early evening
across other parts of the central and southern Plains and Southeast.

...20z Update...
No major changes were made to the prior outlook. Isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms, with a few supercells, appear probable
across parts of the central High plains/Midwest late this afternoon
into this evening. Moderate buoyancy and 35-40 kt of effective shear
associated with west-northwesterly flow aloft could support
supercells capable of large hail in the presence of steep lapse
rates.

Elsewhere, moderate to strong buoyancy and weak shear will
predominate. Scattered thunderstorms over much of the Southeast and
North/central TX will be capable of sporadic damaging gusts with
downbursts. 5% wind probabilities were expanded slightly over parts
of north TX where some convective clustering may occur along a prior
outflow boundary and ahead of a weak MCV. Otherwise, see the
previous discussion for more information.

..Lyons.. 05/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026/

...Middle Missouri Valley/Siouxland...
Limited/late-day-arriving forcing for ascent and modest-caliber
low-level moisture return by late May standards continues to temper
forecast confidence details. However, overall environment and
scenario appears to warrant a categorical Slight Risk centered on
Siouxland given some potential for supercells capable of large hail
later this afternoon through early/mid-evening.

A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over Montana will
eventually influence the region, but generally not until this
evening. Low-level moisture will modestly increase but be offset by
diurnal mixing, near/east of a deepening surface low near the South
Dakota/Nebraska border vicinity. Low-level convergence will maximize
in this corridor, including northeast Nebraska/southeast South
Dakota/far northwest Iowa and at least isolated late-day storm
development is plausible, if not probable. If/where storms do occur,
upwards of 35-40 kt of effective shear associated with
west-northwesterly flow aloft would support supercells capable of
large hail in the presence of steep lapse rates and moderate
buoyancy. Additional and more elevated storm development over time
is expected farther north-northeast this evening into southern
Minnesota with some severe storms possible.

...Southeast States...
An MCV across Alabama will continue to spread east-northeastward and
influence thunderstorm development across Georgia toward South
Carolina and the southern Appalachians. The boundary layer will
continue to destabilize this afternoon and support the possibility
of isolated wind damage with the more robust storm development this
afternoon.

...North/central Texas...
Per visible satellite, ample insolation and heating of a moist
boundary layer will occur in the southern/eastern periphery of a
remnant mid-level low. While low/mid-tropospheric winds will remain
weak, sufficient heating and steep low-level lapse rates may support
some strong/locally severe pulse-type storms capable of downbursts,
and possibly a couple of instances of hail.


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TSj12L

SPC May 24, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the central Great Plains
and Southeast today into tonight, accompanied by at least some risk
for severe weather.

...Discussion...
Mid/upper flow is undergoing gradual amplification across the
northern mid-latitude Pacific. It appears that this will continue
through this period, with a fairly significant mid-level trough and
associated cyclone approaching the British Columbia and Pacific
Northwest coast by late tonight. Downstream, mid-level heights will
tend to rise across the northern Rockies and much of the Missouri
Valley through Upper Midwest, with troughing farther east generally
receding into the eastern Canadian provinces and adjacent portions
of the Northeast.

In the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes, a notable mid-level
high is forecast to be maintained and remain centered to the
west-southwest of Bermuda. Upstream, it appears that weak upper
troughing will linger across eastern Texas through the western Gulf
Basin, with perhaps an associated mid-level cyclonic circulation
centered across the upper Texas coastal plain, as the leading edge
of broad weak troughing emerging from the subtropical eastern
Pacific progresses through the Southwest.

As the stronger mid-latitude westerlies become increasingly confined
to areas near and north of the western and central Canadian/U.S.
border area, and the lower Great Lakes/Northeast, seasonably high
boundary-layer moisture content will generally remain confined to
the Gulf Coast states and southern Atlantic Seaboard. However,
modest low-level moisture return appears probable along and east of
weak lee surface troughing across the central Great Plains.

...Central Great Plains...
Substantive spread remains evident within latest model output,
including convection allowing guidance, concerning developments
which will influence convective potential this afternoon into
tonight. The risk for severe weather, in general, still seems
likely to be limited by weak forcing for ascent, seasonably modest
low-level moisture return, and modest to weak late afternoon into
early evening deep-layer mean wind fields.

However, due to veering of wind fields with height beneath modest
west to northwesterly mid/upper flow, vertical shear along and east
of the lee surface trough may become at least marginally sufficient
for organized convection, including supercells. And any
thunderstorm development persisting into mid/late evening may be
augmented by a nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level jet
(including 30-40 kt around 850 mb).

In the presence of steep lapse rates, thermodynamic profiles
probably will become supportive of storms capable of producing large
hail during peak late afternoon instability into early evening,
particularly where it appears shear may be strongest across parts of
the middle Missouri Valley vicinity. Otherwise, widely scattered to
scattered storms may pose a risk for strong to locally severe wind
gusts into mid to late evening, before instability wanes and
convection weakens.

...Southeast...
Severe weather potential across the Gulf Coast states into Southeast
today remains uncertain, with little clear signal evident in latest
model output. However, a notable cluster of storms, which has
weakened since becoming better organized offshore of the Louisiana
coast earlier this evening, has generated a meso-beta scale
lower/mid-tropospheric cyclonic vorticity center. It appears that
this may migrate inland across the western Florida Panhandle
vicinity near or shortly after daybreak, before continuing
northeastward during the day. As it does, based on potential
instability present in latest objective analysis, it could become a
focus for slowly intensifying and organizing thunderstorm
development which could eventually pose increasing potential to
produce damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr/Chalmers.. 05/24/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TShhN0

SPC May 24, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
One or two evolving clusters of thunderstorms will probably be
accompanied by strong to locally severe wind gusts while spreading
from the Texas Panhandle vicinity through western North Texas this
evening into the overnight hours.

...01z Update...

...Southern Great Plains...
Considerable thunderstorm development is generally slowly spreading
eastward after initiating along the dryline, roughly from near
Clovis, NM into the Midland vicinity. However, at least somewhat
more prominent convective development continues to evolve farther to
the north, after initiating off the higher terrain to the east of
Raton and portions of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. This is
appearing to be aided by stronger, albeit still modest,
northwesterly shear near the southern fringe of the westerlies,
within otherwise quite weak westerly ambient deep-layer mean flow
around or less than 10 kt, which prevails across much of the
southern Great Plains.

CAPE is somewhat modest as well, generally on the order of 1000-1500
J/kg across the high plains, but the boundary-layer has become
deeply mixed, with surface temperature-dew point spreads around or
in excess of 30F. In the presence of the more favorable shear, the
northern cluster has already generated a notable southeastward
surging cold pool accompanied by strong to locally severe wind
gusts. It appears that this will continue southeastward across much
of the southern Texas Panhandle during the next few hours. More
uncertainty exists later as it begins to interact with the
convection spreading off the dryline, but at least some convection
allowing guidance suggests that an outflow boundary intersection
could become a focus for continuing thunderstorm development with
strong to severe gusts into portions of western North Texas late
this evening or overnight.

...Southeastern Louisiana coast...
Low severe wind probabilities are being maintained tonight, as an
outflow boundary remains a focus for thunderstorm development mostly
offshore into the vicinity of southeastern coastal areas. Aided by
inflow of high moisture content air supportive of moderately large
CAPE, ongoing activity could still organize and intensify in the
presence of modest shear and southwesterly ambient deep-layer mean
flow up to around 20 kt.

..Kerr.. 05/24/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TShXpS