SPC Mar 6, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from mid-afternoon
through tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains to the
Ozarks and Midwest. The greatest potential for a few strong
tornadoes and very large hail should exist across eastern portions
of Oklahoma/Kansas/Nebraska into western Arkansas/Missouri and
southern Iowa.

...Central Plains and Midwest/Great Lakes...
Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward today ahead of
the cold front across east-central Nebraska and western Kansas, with
upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints common by mid afternoon.
Cold temperatures aloft and steepened mid-level lapse rates will
support the development of at least 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with
daytime heating. More instability may exist farther south into
Kansas where greater low-level moisture will be in place, although
such details are complicated by existing convection/cloud cover
across eastern Kansas into northwest Missouri at mid-morning.

Current expectations are for scattered robust thunderstorms to
develop around mid afternoon (20-22Z) across southeast
Nebraska/northern Kansas and vicinity, in close proximity to the
surface low and ejecting shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer shear
associated with a 50-70+ kt mid-level jet will easily support
organized updrafts including multiple supercells initially. This
activity will pose a risk for large to very large hail, but fairly
quick upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters with a wind
damage threat seems probable along/ahead of the cold front as
convection spreads into Iowa/Missouri this evening. Some risk for at
least isolated severe/damaging winds may persist late tonight into
early Saturday morning across Wisconsin/Illinois and Lower Michigan
if these clusters can maintain intensity, although instability is
forecast to become more limited with eastward extent across these
areas.

A few tornadoes may occur with sustained supercells or embedded QLCS
circulations across the central Plains/Midwest along/south of the
warm front given favorable low-level shear and enlarged/curved
hodographs. Pending development into the warm sector, a strong
tornado could occur with any supercells this evening as low-level
shear strengthens in tandem with a south-southwesterly low-level
jet.

...Southern Plains and Ozarks...
Thunderstorms have increased and locally intensified this morning
across north-central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas, complicating
the later-day scenario somewhat with poorly resolved
short-term/convective details in guidance. Convective initiation
along the length of the dryline in Oklahoma/Texas still remains a
bit uncertain this afternoon/evening, as low-level convergence will
be weak and stronger large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting
shortwave trough will remain mostly displaced to the north of the
region. Even so, especially to the south of aforementioned early day
storms, at least isolated deep convective development is plausible
into mid/afternoon in areas near the dryline, but perhaps more
likely to its east potentially related to differential
heating/somewhat richer low-level moisture.

Where cells can sustain and mature, they would likely become severe
and pose a threat for very large hail given the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z OUN observed sounding, along
with around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear aiding updraft
organization. The tornado threat would also increase this evening
with any persistent supercells as low-level shear gradually
strengthens. Additional and more probable robust thunderstorm
development remains apparent later this evening/tonight as the cold
front accelerates south-southeastward. Both large hail and damaging
winds may occur with this overnight activity through the end of the
period.

..Guyer/Kerr.. 03/06/2026


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SPC Mar 6, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS/MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from mid afternoon
through tonight from parts of the southern/central Plains to the
Ozarks and Midwest. The greatest potential for a few strong
tornadoes and very large hail should exist across eastern portions
of Oklahoma/Kansas/Nebraska into western Arkansas/Missouri and
southern Iowa.

...Synopsis...
Upper troughing over the western CONUS this morning will evolve into
more of a split flow pattern through the period, as a lead mid-level
shortwave trough ejects northeastward across the central
Plains/Upper Midwest, and a closed low develops over the southern CA
vicinity. A surface lee cyclone has moved into northwest KS early
this morning, and is forecast to develop towards IA by this evening,
while a secondary low shifts eastward along the KS/OK border. A cold
front attendant to the primary surface low will surge
east-southeastward across the southern/central Plains and adjacent
portions of the Midwest through the period, and will likely provide
a focus for organized severe convection later today. A warm front
will develop northward through tonight across parts of the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes. This boundary should serve as a northern limit
to the severe threat from surface-based convection. A dryline will
also extend southward from the secondary surface low across
western/central OK into TX by late afternoon.

...Central Plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes...
Strong low-level warm/moist advection ahead of the lead mid-level
shortwave trough will continue to support scattered to numerous
thunderstorms this morning across eastern KS/NE into northern MO and
IA/IL. This activity will tend to remain elevated, but could pose an
isolated hail threat. In the wake of this convection, low-level
moisture is expected to continue streaming northward today ahead of
the cold front, with upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints common
by mid afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft and steepened mid-level
lapse rates will support the development of at least 1000-1500 J/kg
of MLCAPE with daytime heating. More instability should exist
farther south into KS where greater low-level moisture will be in
place.

Current expectations are for scattered robust thunderstorms to
develop around mid afternoon (20-22Z) across southeast NE/northern
KS and vicinity, in close proximity to the surface low and ejecting
shortwave trough. Additional convection may also form farther south
into central/eastern KS. Strong deep-layer shear associated with a
50-70+ kt mid-level jet will easily support organized updrafts,
including multiple supercells initially. This activity will pose a
risk for large to very large hail, but fairly quick upscale growth
into one or more bowing clusters with a wind damage threat seems
probable along/ahead of the cold front as convection spreads into
IA/MO through the evening. Some risk for at least isolated
severe/damaging winds may persist late tonight into early Saturday
morning across WI/IL and perhaps even Lower MI if one of these
clusters can maintain intensity, although instability is forecast to
become more limited with eastward extent across these areas.

A few tornadoes may occur with sustained supercells or embedded QLCS
circulations across the central Plains/Midwest along/south of the
warm front given favorable low-level shear and enlarged/curved
hodographs. A strong tornado appears possible with any supercells
this evening as low-level shear strengthens in tandem with a
south-southwesterly low-level jet. The Enhanced Risk has been
expanded a little north/westward in northeast KS, southeast NE, and
southwest IA to account for the very large hail potential with
initial supercell development. Some consideration was also given to
greater severe wind probabilities in IA, but confidence in a more
concentrated corridor of damaging winds is low given the weaker
instability forecast with eastward extent across the Midwest.

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
Convective initiation along the length of the dryline in OK/TX
remains highly uncertain this afternoon/evening, as low-level
convergence will be weak and stronger large-scale ascent associated
with the ejecting shortwave trough will remain mostly displaced to
the north of these areas. Still, recent HRRR/RAP/NAM guidance
suggests that MLCIN will be minimal by peak afternoon heating, with
moderate instability in place along/east of the dryline. If any
cells can form and be sustained, they would likely become severe and
pose a threat for very large hail given the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z OUN observed sounding, along
with around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear aiding updraft
organization. The tornado threat would also increase this evening
with any persistent supercells as low-level shear gradually
strengthens. Regardless, the chance for convective initiation still
appears highly uncertain/conditional this afternoon. A better chance
for robust thunderstorm development remains apparent later this
evening/tonight as the cold front advances southward. Both large
hail and damaging winds may occur with this overnight activity
through the end of the period.

Most guidance also continues to show a somewhat separate area of
thunderstorms developing farther east across eastern OK/western AR
and vicinity this afternoon into early evening. This activity might
be aided by a very weak mid-level perturbation moving northeastward
today across central/northeast TX. If this convection develops, then
it would pose a threat for all hazards, including large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes (some of which could be strong). No
changes have been made to the Enhanced Risk across the southern
Plains/Ozarks with this update.

..Gleason/Dean.. 03/06/2026


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SPC Mar 6, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS...AND INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS...MISSOURI...AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon
through tonight from parts of the southern Great Plains to the
Midwest. The greatest potential for a couple strong tornadoes and
isolated very large hail is across eastern portions of
Oklahoma/Kansas and western portions of Arkansas/Missouri.

...Synopsis...
An upper wave within a broader positive-tilt trough will eject out
of CO and into the northern Plains late in the day, with a 70+ kt
midlevel jet moving from NM across KS, NE, and into IA and MN late.
South of this jet, height tendencies will be relatively neutral for
much of the period, with falls generally from KS northward late in
the day.

At the surface, a cold front will push south to a southern MN to
southwest KS line by 00Z, with low pressure over southern
KS/northwest OK. A dryline will extend south from the low into
western OK and west-central TX at the same time. East of the
dryline, dewpoints will rise firmly into the mid 60s F.

Meanwhile, a warm front will push rapidly north across IA/IL/IN
during the day, reaching into southern WI and southern Lower MI by
late afternoon. Above the moistening boundary layer, a broad fetch
of 40-60 kt southwest winds at 850 mb will exist, aiding both
theta-e advection and enhancing low-level shear over a large area.

...Southern Great Plains to the Midwest...
A complex forecast scenario will exist today, with multiple areas of
severe potential, some highly conditional. Large-scale ascent
appears to be most favorable from the surface low in KS
northeastward along the cold front, and along portions of the warm
front from IA eastward. Bouts of thunderstorms are probable across
IA and vicinity, with both bowing structures and supercells
producing wind, hail, and perhaps a tornado. Additional storms are
expected along the warm front across parts of IL, IN, and into
southern Lower MI, and while instability will be weaker, low-level
shear will favor rotating storms and perhaps some tornado risk.

Another focused area of potential will be from northern TX into
eastern OK, western AR and southwest MO, where increasingly deep
moisture to 700 mb and daytime heating well east of the dryline may
yield a zone of tornado potential. Mid 60s F dewpoints, southwest
850 mb winds to 50 kt and effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 suggest any
storms that form within this zone may have tornado potential.

A more conditional risk of supercells, including tornado and very
large hail, will exist along the length of the dryline from
south-central KS across parts of central OK and into western-north
Texas. Here, models are having difficulty producing precipitation
with a relatively stationary dryline and the wave passing well to
the north. However, strong heating west of the dryline will occur,
at least a narrow zone of isolated supercell potential will develop.
Perhaps after a full days heating and toward 00Z, an isolated
supercell or two will be able to form somewhere along the dryline,
assuming capping remains minimal and low-level convergence is
non-zero. Very large hail as well as tornadoes are conditionally
possible in this scenario.

Overnight as the cold front continues southeast across northeast OK
and MO, shear will remain favorable for QLCS tornadoes.

..Jewell/Chalmers.. 03/06/2026


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SPC Mar 6, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from the
eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and southern/central
Kansas. Large hail, a couple tornadoes, and severe/damaging winds
are possible.

...Discussion...
Scattered strong cells are evolving across the eastern TX Panhandle
and western OK, where moisture and instability continue to develop
northward. Storms have been slow to get organized/sustained due to
weak low-level convergence, but several severe storms appear likely
this evening as the low-level jet increases and the environment
remains favorable. The 00Z AMA soundings shows a supercell wind
profile with substantial instability, supporting both large hail and
tornado potential.

Additional/isolated storms cannot be ruled out south of the Enhanced
Risk area, as the environment remains unstable with minimal
inhibition.

..Jewell.. 03/06/2026


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