SPC May 28, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
evening from parts of the Mid-Atlantic into central Appalachians.
Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur in central Wisconsin
and in parts of the Northwest.

...Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians...
An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is moving
southeastward through the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front
is advancing southward across the Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints are in
the upper 60s to lower 70s F. The RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500
J/kg range from eastern Kentucky eastward into southern Virginia and
across much of North Carolina. Within this area, scattered
thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat are ongoing. Forecast
soundings in the Mid-Atlantic early this evening have moderate
deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates. This suggests the
potential for severe wind gusts will continue for a couple more
hours with the more organized clusters.

...Central Wisconsin...
At the surface, a pocket of moisture and instability is located over
central Wisconsin early this evening, where the RAP has MLCAPE in
the 500 to 1500 J/kg range. Forecast soundings near the instability
max have 0-3 km lapse rates near 7.5 C/km and sufficient deep-layer
shear for a marginal severe threat. Isolated severe gusts and hail
will be possible for another hour or so.

...Northwest...
At mid-levels, a low is evident on water vapor imagery over central
California, and flow is from the southeast and east over much of the
northwestern U.S. Thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of a band of
strong large-scale ascent from far northern California into
south-central Oregon. The environment is characterized by moderate
deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates, suggesting a threat for
isolated severe wind gusts will continue. Additional storms are
ongoing near a pocket of moderate instability in northern Idaho and
western Montana, where a few severe wind gusts will also be
possible.

..Broyles.. 05/28/2026


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SPC May 27, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon into the early evening. Strong
to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the
primary hazard with the stronger thunderstorms.

...Mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley...
An upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will move southeast
towards the upper OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic states during the period.
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a lead disturbance over
southern OH moving east across the central Appalachians. In the low
levels, an analyzed frontal zone has been modulated by ongoing
showers/thunderstorms and it will move southeast today. A moist
airmass ahead of the front, featuring dewpoints in the upper 60s to
lower 70s F, will gradually destabilize through early afternoon.
East-southeastward moving clusters are forecast to evolve by later
this afternoon. Scattered strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph)
capable of wind damage will be the primary risk with the stronger
thunderstorms, although marginally severe hail may accompany the
stronger cores this afternoon.

...Southern ID into eastern OR...
A belt of strong easterly mid-level flow will remain over southwest
ID into southeast OR to the north of a stationary, deep-layer
cyclone over the Sierra Nevada. Heating of an adequately moist
boundary layer will steepen low-level lapse rates by early
afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast
to develop this afternoon. Forecast hodographs show 20-45 kt
700-500 mb flow (strongest over southeast OR) and mean storm motions
35-45 kt. These flow fields coupled with evaporatively cooled
downdrafts will likely result in a mix of quickly moving cells and
smaller-scale linear clusters. This activity will potentially be
capable of severe gusts (60-75 mph) before diminishing by mid-late
evening.

...Western Great Lakes...
Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the western
Great Lakes today, as a shortwave trough moves southeastward across
the region. At the surface, a pocket of maximized low-level
moisture will be located over Wisconsin, where MLCAPE is expected to
peak in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. An isolated risk for large
hail/damaging gusts are possible with the stronger thunderstorms.

...Southern Texas Panhandle/West Texas/Far Western Oklahoma...
Somewhat displaced from an expansive overnight MCS along the TX
coast, an airmass featuring upper 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints will
destabilize beneath a weak mid- to upper-level trough. Widely
scattered to scattered storms are forecast to develop by late
afternoon and aggregate into small clusters this evening. Isolated
large hail/severe gusts are the primary severe hazards.

..Smith/Weinman.. 05/27/2026


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SPC May 27, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible today across
parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley. Isolated wind gusts and
hail will also be possible in the western Great Lakes and from the
southern Texas Panhandle into west Texas and far western Oklahoma.

...Mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley...
An upper-level trough will move southeastward today across the Great
Lakes. Flow ahead of the trough will be westerly over the Ohio
Valley and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will move
southward into the Ohio Valley. South of the front, dewpoints in the
60s F will contribute to pockets of moderate instability by
afternoon. As low-level convergence and instability maximizes near
the front, thunderstorms are expected to form and move
east-southeastward across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

RAP forecast soundings just ahead of the front in northern Virginia
at 21Z have MLCAPE near 1200 J/kg with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots.
This will support organized thunderstorms, potentially in the form
of multiple short severe line segments. During the mid to late
afternoon, low-level lapse rates are forecast to peak near 7.5 C/km,
which will be favorable for a wind-damage threat. Hail will also be
possible within the stronger cores.

...Western Great Lakes...
Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the western
Great Lakes today, as a shortwave trough moves southeastward across
the region. At the surface, a pocket of maximized low-level moisture
will be located over Wisconsin, where MLCAPE is expected to peak in
the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms that form during the
afternoon that have access to moderate instability and steep
low-level lapse rates could have potential for isolated wind gusts.
Hail could also occur.

...Southern Texas Panhandle/West Texas/Far Western Oklahoma...
At low-levels, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to advect
northward across west Texas into the southern Texas Panhandle today.
A zone of low-level convergence will likely develop over the
southern Texas Panhandle, with upslope flow to the north of this
feature. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered
thunderstorm development is expected near the convergence zone. RAP
forecast soundings to the south and east of Amarillo at 21Z have
steep low to mid-level lapse rates with large surface
temperature-dewpoint spreads. This may be enough for isolated severe
wind gusts and hail.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 05/27/2026


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SPC May 27, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will
be possible this evening in parts of west Texas into south-central
and southeast Texas. Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts
and hail will also be possible in parts of the upper Mississippi
Valley and northwestern U.S.

...Texas...
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over
west and southwest Texas. Ahead of the trough, a broken line of
strong to severe storms is ongoing from the Texas Hill Country
southwestward to near the Rio Grande River. Moderate to strong
instability is analyzed by the RAP towards the south end of this
line, where MLCAPE is in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. As the line
moves eastward into south-central Texas this evening, the more
organized embedded storms may have supercell characteristics and be
capable of large to very large hail. Severe wind gusts will also be
possible along the leading edge of the more intense line segments.
Further north into parts of the Texas Hill Country, instability is
considerably less which will temper the severe potential somewhat.
These storms may be able to produce isolated severe gusts and hail.
This entire line will eventually move eastward across the Texas
Coastal Plain by late in the period, where an a few strong wind
gusts will be possible...see MCD 868.

...Upper Mississippi Valley...
At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is located from
north-central Minnesota east-southeastward into east-central
Wisconsin. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front. An
axis of instability is analyzed immediately south of the front, with
another pocket of instability located in southern Minnesota and
northern Iowa. The instability along with steep low-level lapse
rates may be enough for an isolated potential for severe wind gusts
early this evening. Hail will also be possible.

...Northern Rockies...
A mid-level low is currently over northern California with
south-southeasterly mid-level flow located over the northwestern
U.S. Within this flow, an axis of instability is analyzed by the RAP
across western Montana, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing.
In addition to the instability, forecast soundings in western
Montana show moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse
rates. This should be enough for isolated severe wind gusts early
this evening. Hail will also be possible, mainly in northwest
Montana where instability is a bit stronger.

..Broyles.. 05/27/2026


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