SPC Jun 22, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds
and perhaps a couple of tornadoes should occur mainly this afternoon
and evening across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast.
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across the
northern/central High Plains, with large to very large hail the main
threat.

...ArkLaTex into the Mid-South and Southeast...
A weakened but persistent MCS continues this morning across AR into
northeast TX. This cluster will track east-southeastward towards the
lower MS Valley over the next few hours while gradually weakening.
But, it should still pose some risk for isolated to widely scattered
damaging winds in the short term. The convectively augmented MCV
attendant to the ongoing MCS will also move east-northeastward
across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South/central Gulf Coast states
through the day. Gradual destabilization of a rather moist low-level
airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s) should
occur, even with widespread cloudiness hampering daytime heating to
some extent. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow associated
with the MCV and broad upper troughing over the eastern CONUS should
support sufficient deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization.
Multiple clusters and perhaps marginal supercells capable of
producing mainly scattered damaging winds should develop along/south
of a front this afternoon, and spread eastward across much of the
Southeast through at least the early evening. A tornado or two may
also occur in close proximity to the MCV track, but low-level flow
is forecast to be fairly veered and modest.

...Mid-Atlantic...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the OH
Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Recent visible satellite imagery shows
fairly expansive cloud cover over much of the northern Mid-Atlantic,
with clearer skies farther south into southern VA and vicinity. 12Z
observed soundings across this region show poor lapse rates aloft,
which should hamper any more than weak instability developing this
afternoon, even with filtered daytime heating. Still, strengthening
mid-level westerly winds and large-scale ascent preceding the
shortwave trough will likely encourage scattered to numerous
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon across the higher terrain of
the central Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. These multicell
clusters should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds as
they spread east-northeastward towards the Atlantic Coast through
the afternoon and evening. Marginal hail may occur with the
strongest cores. A couple of tornadoes appear possible along/near a
sharpening warm front in the MD/PA/NJ/DE vicinity, where low-level
shear may become locally enhanced.

...Northern/Central High Plains...
Within a generally zonal mid-level pattern, isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains in a modest
low-level upslope flow regime. Moderate instability will be aided by
the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, and 40-50 kt of
deep-layer shear will easily support supercells with an attendant
threat for large to very large hail. These supercells may be fairly
widely spaced, but will likely track south-southeastward through at
least the early evening before weakening. A couple of tornadoes may
occur with these supercells, particularly across parts of the NE
Panhandle into northeast CO, where the best combination of low-level
moisture, effective SRH, and favorable convective mode should
overlap for a few hours. Latest short-term guidance continues to
show low potential for upscale growth/MCS development tonight, but
trends will be monitored.

..Gleason/Bunting.. 06/22/2026


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SPC Jun 22, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...AND ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, mainly this afternoon and evening.
Widely scattered severe storms are expected across the northern and
central High Plains, with more isolated severe weather possible from
the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Mid Atlantic into the Mid-South...
A midlevel shortwave trough, including the remnant of a prominent
MCV, is forecast to move from parts of the Upper OH Valley toward
the Northeast and Mid Atlantic later today. While most guidance
suggests some dampening of this shortwave trough with time, some
flow enhancement will persist within the 850-500 mb layer in the
wake of this shortwave across parts of the Mid Atlantic and
central/southern Appalachians. Scattered storm development is
expected by early/mid afternoon within a moist and moderately
unstable environment. Initial development is expected to evolve into
forward propagating storm clusters with a threat of damaging winds
through the afternoon into the early evening. As convection
intercepts a northward-moving warm front across the Mid Atlantic,
locally backed flow may support development of at least transient
supercells, with some tornado potential.

Farther southwest, an MCV is expected to emerge from a morning MCS
over the southern Plains and move eastward toward the Mid-South
region through the afternoon. As this MCV moves through a very
warm/moist and moderately buoyant environment, storm development is
expected both along the MCV track, and also in the wake of the MCV
along a trailing cold front. Damaging winds will be possible with
the strongest cells/clusters. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the
strength of low-level shear/SRH enhancement associated with the MCV,
but some tornado potential could also evolve through the afternoon
into early evening.

...Central/northern High Plains...
Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening
across parts of the central and northern High Plains, within a
relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Steep midlevel
lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential
for supercells with large to very large hail, localized severe
gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Modest upscale growth cannot
be ruled out during the evening, though most guidance does not
depict organized MCS development at this time.

...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex region...
The remnant of a vigorous MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of
the period from north TX into the ArkLaTex region. Some severe
threat could accompany this system at the beginning of the period,
though a general weakening trend is expected through the morning.
Isolated redevelopment will be possible along the remnant outflow
into early evening, with an increase in storm coverage expected late
tonight. Localized wind damage could accompany any of this
redevelopment, though generally modest deep-layer shear will tend to
limit a more organized severe threat.

..Dean/Squitieri.. 06/22/2026


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SPC Jun 22, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0812 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST
KS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OK...

...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes (possibly strong) and damaging winds remain possible this
evening into parts of the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. A swath of
severe gusts (possibly greater than 75 mph) appears possible later
tonight from southwest Kansas into central Oklahoma.

...Mid MS Valley into the Ohio Valley...
An MCV moving across IN will eventually encounter weaker low-level
moisture and instability with eastward extent. However, a long-lived
storm cluster may continue eastward toward parts of southwest OH and
eastern KY, before a definitive weakening trend occurs. Damaging
wind and embedded tornadoes will remain possible with the primary
storm cluster until weakening occurs. Semi-discrete cells and small
clusters trailing the MCV will also continue to pose a threat of
tornadoes (possibly strong) and damaging winds through the evening,
within a moist and favorably sheared environment. See MCD 1237 for
more information.

...Central High Plains into OK and southern MO...
Widely scattered storm development is underway near a surface
boundary draped from northwest OK into southeast KS/southwest MO.
While large-scale forcing is generally modest at best, MLCAPE of
2500-4000 J/kg and effective shear of 40+ kt are conditionally quite
favorable for organized storms. A few supercells may persist along
the front through the evening, with a threat of large to very large
hail and localized severe gusts. Also, while low-level flow is weak,
vorticity and backed surface winds near the boundary could support
some tornado potential, if a robust supercell can become
established.

Farther northwest, a supercell cluster is ongoing across western KS
this evening. This cluster will continue to pose a threat of large
to very large hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado through the
evening. See MCD 1239 for more information regarding the short-term
threat.

Short-term guidance (notably the HRRR and RRFS) suggests that this
cluster will continue to grow upscale, and potentially evolve into
an MCS that will move southeastward across southwest KS into
northwest and central OK, with threat of severe gusts (potentially
above 75 mph) through the overnight hours. This evolution appears
plausible, if evening convection across northwest OK is not too
disruptive to the environment. Given the very favorable midlevel
lapse rates on the 00Z DDC and OUN soundings, rich moisture, and
strong instability and deep-layer shear, a 30%/CIG1 wind area was
added from southwest KS into central OK.

..Dean.. 06/22/2026


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SPC Jun 21, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur from the central High
Plains into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, mainly this
afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe/damaging
winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes will all be possible. Some
potential for strong tornadoes may develop across parts of Illinois,
and Indiana during the afternoon and evening.

...20z Update Mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley...
Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook given the latest
observational trends. Several clusters of strong thunderstorms are
ongoing ahead of an MCV across the mid MS Valley. An observed messy
convective mode should persist with a mix of bowing structures and
transient supercells likely ahead of the MCV, and near the effective
warm front from eastern IL into IN. Additional storm development is
also possible behind the MCV along the remnant boundary into MO and
eastern KS. This will support a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps
a couple of tornadoes where low-level flow is backed and hodographs
are larger. Eventually upscale growth into one or more bowing
clusters is likely later this evening/overnight into the OH valley
with a continued risk for damaging gusts and embedded tornadoes.

...KS/OK this evening/tonight...
Severe storm development appears probable along the modified
trailing outflow across northwest OK and southwest KS this afternoon
into this evening. Sufficient vertical shear exists for supercells
and organized clusters. With large buoyancy and steep low/mid-level
lapse rates, large hail is likely with these strong updrafts. A
brief tornado or two is also possible, owing to storm interactions
and ambient vertical vorticity along the outflow boundary.

Damaging wind potential will likely increase with storm
consolidation, though the more cellular initial mode suggests this
maybe somewhat gradual. These storms, and additional convection
originating further north from the central High Plains, should
persist overnight into central and southern OK, reaching the Red
River Valley by 12z tomorrow morning with isolated severe potential.

..Lyons.. 06/21/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026/

...MO/IL/IN/KY...
A long-lived band of thunderstorms currently extends from
east-central MO into southwest MO/northeast OK. This activity is
tracking into a region of increasingly warm/moist air where
dewpoints are rising to near 70F and breaks in the clouds are
contributing to moderate CAPE values. All CAM guidance suggests
that storms along the line will intensify this afternoon and track
eastward across southern IL/southern IN and northern KY. Low-level
shear is quite strong, but somewhat veered. This increases
uncertainty of storm mode between discrete supercells or bowing
structures. It appears there will be a period of risk early in the
event for tornadic supercells, followed by multiple linear storm
segments capable of damaging wind gusts. Storms may remain severe
as far east as southern OH and eastern KY overnight. Refer to MD
#1228 for further short-term details.

...MO/KS/OK/AR...
In the wake of the aforementioned convection, an outflow boundary
extends southwestward into central OK. Rapid clearing is occurring
north of the boundary, where residual moisture and steep lapse rates
will quickly destabilize the area. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to form by late afternoon in this zone and track slowly
southeastward. Sufficient deep-layer shear and high CAPE will
promote the risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and
damaging winds. A tornado or two might also occur.

...NE/CO/KS...
Low clouds are eroding across the NE Panhandle southward into
eastern CO/western KS, where rapid afternoon destabilization should
occur. A weak shortwave trough over eastern WY will rotate into the
region this afternoon, helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms.
Supercells capable of very large hail appear possible, tracking
southeastward across the risk area through mid-evening.


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