SPC May 31, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe storms are possible across the
central U.S. on Sunday, from the Dakotas into the Ozarks, and across
southwest Texas.

...Synopsis...
A relatively weak upper trough will lift northward through the
central/northern Plains. To the south of this feature, mid-level
heights will modestly rise during the day. Weak surface lows are
expected within the northern Plains and Kansas. Rich moisture will
be present as far north as the Mid-Missouri Valley.

...Kansas/Missouri...
Convection is likely to be ongoing in parts of the Mid-Missouri
Valley during the morning. This activity is likely to leave an
outflow boundary within Missouri. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to low
70s F will promote strong to extreme MLCAPE values (3500-5000 J/kg).
Despite the trough generally lifting northward, a band of 30-40 kt
of mid-level flow will remain across the region. Storm development
along the surface trough/dryline is uncertain given the rising
mid-level heights. However, it is possible that a storm or two could
form along this boundary or where it intersects outflow from the
early day activity. Deep-layer shear would be sufficient for
supercell structures capable of large hail, severe winds, and
perhaps a tornado given the locally enhanced SRH along the outflow
boundary. The potential for very-large hail is less clear given weak
upper-level flow.

Model guidance also suggests a subtle shortwave, coupled with weak
low-level lift, could initiate convection in the vicinity of
northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri. With the very moist airmass
present, nocturnal cooling would be rather gradual. Should a strong
enough cold pool develop, this activity could develop
south/southeast along the outflow boundary where a reservoir of
strong buoyancy would exist. Damaging winds would be the main threat
with this potential MCS. With the timing of this development
expected to be after 03Z, it is not clear how intense storms will
be. Should confidence increase in either scenario, a categorical
Slight would be warranted.

...Oklahoma/Texas...
Strong heating to the west of a dryline will promote at least
isolated storms during the afternoon. Higher confidence in greater
storm coverage exists in Southwest Texas given the moist upslope
flow into the Davis Mountains. Coverage into Rolling Plains and
Oklahoma is less certain as mid-level heights will be slowly rising
during the day. Moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place
(2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep layer shear will be weak, however.
Severe wind gusts will be the main hazard, though isolated large
hail is possible in the areas of larger buoyancy.

...Nebraska into the Dakotas...
Forcing for ascent from the weak, negatively tilted upper trough
will be greater here than areas to the south. That said, shear will
not be overly strong. Daytime heating will support widely scattered
to scattered storms capable of locally damaging winds and perhaps
some hail.

..Wendt/Moore.. 05/31/2026


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SPC May 31, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 310100Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BLACK
HILLS INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential will continue this evening and parts
of the overnight, mainly within the central Plains.

...Synopsis...
An arcing zone of convection is ongoing across parts of Nebraska
into central Kansas. The strongest forcing for ascent will be
present in Nebraska as the shortwave trough pivots north through the
evening. This activity will still be capable of large hail, severe
winds, and a couple of tornadoes as the low-level jet modestly
strengthens into the evening. Additional storms will continue in
central Kansas. The 00Z observed TOP sounding showed steep mid-level
lapse rates, but some capping at low levels. While activity will
tend to become elevated into the evening, strong to severe/damaging
winds will remain possible farther east. Large hail potential will
be somewhat mitigated be less favorable storm modes. Within the
southern Plains, an isolated storm is possible on the dryline in the
next couple of hours, but confidence in this scenario is low as
forcing for ascent is weak and low-level stability will increase
with time.

..Wendt.. 05/31/2026


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SPC May 30, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over
the central Great Plains. The stronger thunderstorms will
potentially be capable of severe gusts, large hail, and a couple of
tornadoes.

...Central KS into OK...
A negatively-tilted upper trough will rotate northeastward across
the central High Plains region today, with a 40-50 knot mid level
jet moving into the region. Southerly/southeasterly low-level winds
in the warm sector of a surface low over eastern CO will maintain a
zone of high dewpoints and very unstable air mass across much of
central KS and northern OK. This region will be most favorable for
severe storms this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds being
the primary concern.

Thunderstorms will initially form along a diffuse dryline from
southwest KS southward along the TX/OK border. Temperatures
approaching 100F will result in a deeply mixed boundary-layer,
promoting strong outflow winds despite vertical shear profiles that
favor supercell structures. As this activity spreads northeastward
through the high CAPE zone, large hail and damaging winds will
remain the primary concern, but a tornado or two will also be
possible in any storms that can maintain discrete mode. Activity
should weaken by mid-evening as they move into a more stable
environment over eastern NE/southwest IA/northwest MO.

...Northeast CO/NE Panhandle...
Easterly surface winds on the north side of the aforementioned
surface low have advected low-level moisture westward into the
northern foothills of CO. Widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected to form in this region, as well as the along the DCVZ and
near the dryline over northwest KS. All of this activity will build
northeastward through the afternoon/evening with a combination of
supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds, hail, and
perhaps a tornado or two. These storms may remain at least
occasionally severe into central SD before weakening tonight.

..Hart/Weinman.. 05/30/2026


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SPC May 30, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening over the central Great Plains. The stronger thunderstorms
will potentially be capable of large to very large hail, severe
gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

...NE Panhandle into the northern High Plains...
A mid-level trough along the UT/CO border will migrate slowly
northeast with a belt of 20-40 kt cyclonic 500-mb flow wrapping
cyclonically through the base of the trough into the NE Panhandle
and Black Hills. In the low levels, an elongated area of surface
low pressure/lee trough will focus thunderstorm development later
this afternoon/evening. The western part of a moisture plume
extending from the southern Great Plains northward into western
NE/SD will feature 50s to lower 60 F dewpoints. Strong heating and
large-scale ascent will combine to weaken the capping inversion and
result in widely scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-late
afternoon. Slightly stronger deep-layer shear across NE will favor
a mix of supercells and multicells with the stronger storms. Large
hail and severe gusts will be possible with the stronger
thunderstorms through the mid evening as this activity probably
grows upscale into a linear cluster or two.

...NE-KS and into OK-TX...
Models continue to show a sharp dryline across western/central
KS, western OK, and into west TX by late afternoon. Main lobe of
forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough will likely
glance the northwestern quadrant of KS into NE. Surface
mesoanalysis this morning shows a low over northeast CO near AKO and
an effective outflow boundary draped east along I-70 in
north-central KS. North of the boundary, easterly surface winds
will contribute to maintaining moist upslope flow.

Ample heating in wake of early morning convection and an
increasingly rich moisture plume arcing from north-central OK into
southwest NE, will favor a very unstable airmass developing by
mid-late afternoon (3500-4500 J/kg MLCAPE). Some forecast
uncertainty remains regarding low-level hodographs due to model
spread (e.g., RAP and HRRR time-lagged depictions favoring more
supercells vs. NAM with less favorable hodographs and indicative of
more multicellular structures). Furthermore, effective shear is
forecast to be only 25-35 knots and will likely straddle the
multicell-supercell spectrum. Where slightly stronger shear and
some enlargement of clockwise-curved hodographs are currently
expected, it is where supercells are more probable and the risk for
large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are increasingly
possible. Have opted to include a 5-percent tornado risk over
north-central KS into southwest NE, with this region being located
north of this morning's west-east boundary and in closer proximity
to the upper wave. Farther south, lower storm coverage (isolated)
is expected into OK and more sparse and widely spaced activity
farther south along the dryline in parts of west TX. Large hail and
severe gusts are the primary hazards with these storms.

...Southwest Missouri into central Arkansas...
A zone of isentropic ascent near 850 mb will become established
across the Ozark Plateau by late afternoon. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are likely within this corridor. Models show large
SBCAPE (3000 J/kg) and adequate deep-layer shear for some storm
organization. A few stronger cells may be capable of large hail and
perhaps strong/severe wind gusts.

..Smith/Kerr.. 05/30/2026


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