SPC Jan 2, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

...Southeast States...
Multiple shortwave troughs, including across the Mid-South and High
Plains early today, will progress east-southeastward toward the
region within amplifying flow aloft. This will influence weak
cyclogenesis, progressing from northeast Texas toward the
ArkLaMiss/Alabama tonight, as a warm/moist sector becomes
increasingly established across southeast Louisiana, southern
portions of Mississippi/Alabama and parts of the Florida Panhandle,
with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints tonight.

The potential for isolated elevated thunderstorms will increase late
today, and more so tonight regionally. Moderate mid-level flow will
extend across the region and vertical shear will be strong enough to
support storm organization. However, weak buoyancy is expected to
limit updraft depth and persistence, keeping the severe potential
low. Some surface-based instability is possible late tonight/early
Saturday for coastal areas, but lingering warm air aloft/modest
forcing for ascent will likely limit the overall severe potential
regionally until the post-12z Day 2/Saturday time frame.

...Northern/Central California...
A prominent upper trough centered around -134W will gradually
progress eastward with a lead shortwave trough reaching coastal
portions of northern California and southwest Oregon late tonight
and early Saturday. A related influx of moistening and steepening
mid-level lapse rates will yield an increasing potential for some
thunderstorms tonight, particularly for coastal areas as a frontal
band moves inland. Considerably strengthening deep-layer winds may
contribute to some potential for convectively enhanced wind gusts,
but severe thunderstorm-related severe potential should remain
limited.

..Guyer/Dean.. 01/02/2026


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SPC Jan 2, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast.

...Central Gulf Coast into the Southeast...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs
moving within the broadly anticyclonic flow that covers much of the
CONUS. The easternmost shortwave is currently moving through eastern
OK and is forecast to continue progressing eastward throughout the
day, moving across the Mid-South and TN Valley. The westernmost
shortwave is currently moving into the Four Corners vicinity, with
continued southeastward progress anticipated throughout the day,
taking the wave through southern CO/northern NM, the TX Panhandle,
and OK/north TX. Recent surface analysis places a low over the
central TX/OK border region, with modest low-level moisture return
ongoing across the TX Gulf Coast and Lower MS Valley.

This low is forecast to progress gradually eastward in tandem with
its parent shortwave, ending the period over central AL. Broad
low-level moisture return will persist within the warm sector of
this low, with low to mid 60s dewpoints likely extending from
southern LA into central MS/AL by early tomorrow morning. Warm-air
advection across this warm sector is forecast to result in elevated
instability beginning in the late afternoon and persisting through
the evening and overnight. Elevated thunderstorms are anticipated
near the nose of the low-level jet where the warm-air advection will
be maximized. Moderate mid-level flow will extend across the region
and vertical shear will be strong enough to support storm
organization. However, weak buoyancy is expected to limit updraft
depth and persistence, keeping the overall severe potential low.

Some surface-based instability is possible very late in the period
(09Z-12Z Saturday) from southeast LA into the FL Panhandle. Even so,
limited forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy should temper the
overall severe potential here as well with the greater severe risk
occurring later and further downstream on Day 2 (Saturday).

...Northern/Central CA...
A deep cyclone, currently over the western Pacific Ocean, is
forecast to progress northeastward throughout the day as a series of
shortwave troughs rotate through its southern and eastern periphery.
One of these shortwaves is forecast to reach the northern
CA/southern OR coast by late tonight. Strong ascent and cooling
mid-level temperatures associated with this wave will support
showers and embedded thunderstorms across northern and central CA
tonight. The deepest convection is anticipated within a frontal band
forecast to reach the region between 04Z and 06Z. Robust wind fields
will accompany this shortwave as well, but the limited buoyancy
should temper the overall severe potential.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/02/2026


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SPC Jan 2, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Thu Jan 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast.

...Gulf States...

Weak short-wave trough is currently noted over the southern High
Plains region. This feature is forecast to deamplify a bit as it
tracks into the lower MS Valley around 18z. Late in the period, a
stronger feature will dig into the Arklatx by 03/12z, but the lead
short wave is expected to be the primary feature that induces a LLJ
response across MS/AL/GA. Latest model guidance suggests weak
elevated instability will develop across much of the central Gulf
States, and this will prove more than adequate for elevated
convective development along the nose of the LLJ, where warm
advection will be maximized. Late in the period, weak SBCAPE is
expected to develop across southeast LA but the primary forcing
mechanism will be well north of this region and the prospect for
organized severe appears limited.

...CA...

Strong midlevel speed max will translate inland across northern CA
after 03/06z. Profiles will cool as heights fall in response to this
feature, and lower tropospheric lapse rates will steepen. As a
result, forecast soundings exhibit significant moistening that will
lead to weak buoyancy and the possibility for at least isolated
thunderstorms as lifted parcels should be able to attain heights
necessary for lightning discharge. While wind fields will strengthen
markedly, at this time it appears gusty winds would be the greatest
risk with the more organized late-night convection. Severe threat
appears too low to warrant probabilities at this time.

..Darrow/Marsh.. 01/02/2026


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SPC Jan 2, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CST Thu Jan 01 2026

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Upper low/short-wave trough have advanced inland across interior CA
early this evening. Earlier isolated thunderstorm activity, beneath
this feature, has weakened and further boundary-layer cooling will
not prove beneficial for deep convection capable of generating
lightning.

..Darrow.. 01/02/2026


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