SPC Nov 24, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EAST
TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon into
the overnight hours from east Texas into central/southern
Mississippi.

...TX/LA/MS...
A large upper trough is moving eastward across the southern Plains
this morning, with an associated 60-70 knot mid level jet expected
to track into AR by evening. At the surface, a warm front currently
extends from southeast TX to just off the LA coast. This boundary
will lift northward through the day, with a moist and moderately
unstable air mass spreading inland. A combination of diurnal
destabilization and the approaching upper trough will lead to
convective intensification by early afternoon over east TX. These
initial storms will pose a risk of large hail and perhaps some gusty
winds and a tornado or two.

As the activity spreads eastward after dark, rather strong low-level
shear profiles in vicinity of the warm front will maintain a risk of
severe storms through much of the night across central LA and
southern MS. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible.

..Hart/Broyles.. 11/24/2025


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SPC Nov 24, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of producing hail and locally strong
gusts remains possible tonight over parts of west to west-central
Texas.

...Discussion...
Gradual cooling aloft will occur tonight as the upper trough moves
into the central and southern Plains, with 50-60 kt midlevel
southwesterlies maintaining deep-layer shear. At the surface, an
instability axis currently exists over southwest TX, where
temperatures are in the 60s with low 60s F dewpoints. While the 00Z
DRT sounding was capped, the MAF soundings shows significantly
cooler 700 mb temperatures. A few storms are ongoing over the South
Plains and into the Pecos Valley, with new echoes developing south
of FST. Given southeasterly 925 mb winds and continued cooling
aloft, additional development and possibly strengthening is expected
overnight.

Long hodographs will favor cells producing hail, and a few strong
wind gusts may also occur if bowing structures can develop. Overall,
instability will be mainly elevated, except over far southern areas.

..Jewell.. 11/24/2025


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SPC Nov 23, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally
severe gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of
west Texas.

...20Z Update...
Both the Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly
northwestward in the TX South Plains. Here, continued diurnal
heating amid middle 50s dewpoints is yielding sufficient
surface-based buoyancy for any left-mover supercells that may evolve
(posing a risk of severe hail). Additionally, a significant-hail
area was added over the western part of the Slight Risk. Given the
expectation for discrete storms in this area, a long/mostly straight
hodograph and around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE should support hail to around
2 inches in diameter with any longer-lived supercells. Finally, the
5-percent wind probabilities were expanded eastward. Despite
increasing boundary-layer static stability, gradual upscale growth
and a focused/eastward-translating low-level jet should allow for
embedded severe gusts within the line into the early morning hours.
For details on the near-term severe risk, see MCD #2218.

..Weinman.. 11/23/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025/

...West TX...
Current satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over AZ,
with a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms preceding it
across central/eastern NM. This low is forecast to continue
northeastward throughout the day as a belt of strong mid-level flow
pivots through its southern and eastern periphery across the
southern High Plains and into the southern/central Plains. Low-level
moisture will continue to advect northwestward ahead of this low and
associated jet streak and model consensus brings upper 50s dewpoints
into the Permian Basin by this evening. This should result in a
relatively confined region of surface-based buoyancy across the
Permian Basin, which will combined with large-scale ascent and
strong shear to support supercells. Primary threat will be large
hail, although the anticipated development of surface-based buoyancy
does indicate a low-probability threat for strong winds and/or a
tornado.

Low-level stability will increase quickly with eastward extent, as a
result of both nocturnal cooling and generally cooler surface
temperatures throughout the day. Even so, enough elevated buoyancy
is anticipated for continued strong to occasionally severe storms
throughout much of the evening and overnight, particularly in the
03Z-06Z time frame across southwest TX. Hail is the primary risk
with these storms.


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SPC Nov 23, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX....

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of large hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas.

...West TX...
Current satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over AZ,
with a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms preceding it
across central/eastern NM. This low is forecast to continue
northeastward throughout the day as a belt of strong mid-level flow
pivots through its southern and eastern periphery across the
southern High Plains and into the southern/central Plains. Low-level
moisture will continue to advect northwestward ahead of this low and
associated jet streak and model consensus brings upper 50s dewpoints
into the Permian Basin by this evening. This should result in a
relatively confined region of surface-based buoyancy across the
Permian Basin, which will combined with large-scale ascent and
strong shear to support supercells. Primary threat will be large
hail, although the anticipated development of surface-based buoyancy
does indicate a low-probability threat for strong winds and/or a
tornado.

Low-level stability will increase quickly with eastward extent, as a
result of both nocturnal cooling and generally cooler surface
temperatures throughout the day. Even so, enough elevated buoyancy
is anticipated for continued strong to occasionally severe storms
throughout much of the evening and overnight, particularly in the
03Z-06Z time frame across southwest TX. Hail is the primary risk
with these storms.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 11/23/2025


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