Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CST Sun Nov 01 2026
Valid 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds
and a few tornadoes will become a concern across much of New Mexico
into the southern/central High Plains from late this afternoon
through tonight. Isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado may
also occur with convection across parts of Arizona this afternoon
and evening.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed this outlook cycle. Regional radar shows a
broad area of precipitation continuing to overspread much of
Arizona, associated with the lead short-wave trough. Thus far, this
convective activity has remained sub-severe, though some enhancement
in reflectivity and lightning activity is starting to occur along
the leading edge in southeast AZ. The downstream airmass across
portions of New Mexico has remained relatively clear, allowing for
modest destabilization (500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE) amid ample
deep-layer shear. Given these observational trends, the expectation
for a broken/low-topped line of thunderstorms emerging across
eastern AZ into western/central NM by 20-00Z remains on track.
In the wake of this activity, some clearing can be noted in
southwest Arizona where a pocket of 500 J/kg of MLCAPE has emerged.
An isolated severe wind and tornado threat remains possible if
storms are able to redevelop in this region.
..Karstens.. 11/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 01 2026/
...Southwest into the Southern/Central High Plains...
Extensive cloud cover remains prevalent over much of AZ/NM into the
southern/central High Plains this morning, as low/mid-level moisture
continues to spread over these regions downstream of highly
amplified upper troughing extending across the West Coast. Multiple
embedded mid-level perturbations and a strong mid/upper-level
subtropical jet will overspread the Southwest and adjacent
southern/central High Plains through tonight. A pronounced low-level
mass response is forecast across the southern/central High Plains
late tonight, with greater low-level moisture expected to stream
northward across these regions. Still, the primary uncertainty
relating to severe potential through the period remains how much
destabilization can occur in an otherwise favorably sheared
environment.
Current expectations are for widespread cloudiness to hinder diurnal
heating and the development of instability to some degree through
the late afternoon, although some cloud breaks remain possible given
recent trends in visible satellite imagery across NM. The tropical
source region for the enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow
overspreading the Southwest will also limit mid-level lapse rates,
with consensus of latest guidance suggesting they will remain near
moist adiabatic through much of the troposphere. Even with these
potential thermodynamic limitations, there will probably be enough
weak boundary-layer instability in place by late afternoon across
western/central NM to support surface-based convection.
A broken/low-topped line of thunderstorms should develop across
eastern AZ into western/central NM by 20-00Z as a lead mid-level
shortwave trough ejects northeastward over the Southwest. While
MLCAPE may only reach the 250-750 J/kg range, strongly veering and
increasing flow with height through low/mid-levels will support
ample deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. An increasing threat
for scattered severe/damaging winds and perhaps a couple of
tornadoes remains apparent as this convection spreads quickly
east-northeastward through the evening, with some potential for
isolated 75+ mph gusts. Greater low-level moisture (low 60s surface
dewpoints) and related instability will be present across parts of
the southern/central High Plains this evening and overnight, and an
increasing threat for severe winds and a few tornadoes will likely
exist across these regions given the continued presence of favorable
low-level and deep-layer shear. This threat will likely continue
through the end of the period (early Monday morning) across the
OK/TX Panhandles into portions of southwest KS and western OK.
Across southern/central AZ, an isolated severe wind and tornado
threat may also develop this afternoon behind the initial/lead
shortwave trough. Additional thunderstorms should form as
large-scale ascent associated with the primary upper trough
overspreads this region. While instability is expected to remain
limited given ongoing clouds/precipitation, above-average low-level
moisture and strong shear may aid organized convection and some
severe risk. Have maintained the Marginal Risk across
southern/central AZ to account for this possibility, but confidence
in higher coverage of severe thunderstorms was too low to include
greater severe probabilities at this time.
...South Florida...
Numerous to widespread thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning
across south FL in association with a weak mid-level wave. The 12Z
observed sounding from MFL showed modest winds through low/mid
levels and weak deep-layer shear, but cool temperatures at mid/upper
levels. This may support occasionally strong convection capable of
producing gusty winds this afternoon, but organized severe
thunderstorms still appear unlikely.
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