SPC Jun 19, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce gusty winds
today across parts of the Upper Midwest, central Plains, from Texas
into portions of the Southeast, and across parts of the Sierra into
the northern Great Basin.

...20z Update MN/WI...
Severe potential remains evident this afternoon and evening across
the upper MS Valley. Despite modest buoyancy, anomalously strong
deep-layer flow and steep low-level lapse rates will promote
splitting supercell structures across parts of MN and WI. This will
support a risk for hail and damaging gusts with the strongest
storms. Have adjusted the 15% hail probabilities further north for
the latest radar trends. See MCD#1200 and Severe Thunderstorm Watch
#355 for additional details.

...NC/VA...
The circulation associated with remnants of former TC Arthur have
moved offshore and severe potential has decreased. Severe
probabilities were removed.

...Southeast...
A broad area of thunderstorms is ongoing along a diffuse frontal
zone from east TX across the Gulf Coast States. Occasional
downbursts remain possible with stronger multicell clusters through
this evening, given large buoyancy and the high PWAT air mass.
Vertical shear is minimal and broader storm organization is not
expected. Have adjusted the 5% wind probabilities slightly to better
capture ongoing storms. No other changes were made to the outlook.
See the prior discussion for more information.

..Lyons.. 06/19/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026/

...MN/WI...
A fast moving shortwave trough over ND will track southeastward into
the upper Midwest today. 12z model guidance is in general agreement
that a pocket of modest CAPE will develop this afternoon over
central MN in a region of broken clouds and rapidly cooling
mid-level temperatures. This will likely lead to scattered
thunderstorm development, with storms tracking into western WI
before weakening this evening. Forecast soundings show steep
mid-level lapse rates and strong westerly flow aloft. Given the
strong large scale ascent, a few relatively low-topped supercells
are possible with large hail being the main risk. A small SLGT risk
has been added for this scenario.

...East TX into the Southeast...
A very moist and moderately unstable air mass is present today
across much of east TX and LA into southern MS/AL/GA and north FL.
Dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s and strong heating will lead to
MLCAPE values of over 3000 J/kg across much of this broad area.
This will lead to diurnally driven thunderstorms later today into
this evening. Steering flow and vertical shear are weak across the
region, suggesting slow-moving and rather disorganized convection.
Nevertheless, the strongest cells will pose a risk of water-loaded
downdrafts and occasionally gusty/damaging winds.

...Eastern NC...
A remnant tropical circulation is moving across NC and will be
offshore by mid-afternoon. Until then, an isolated tornado cannot
be ruled out in the stronger-sheared environment across the Outer
Banks region. Refer to MD #1197 for further details.

...KS/NE/CO/NM...
Scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon in a zone of
low-level warm advection over southwest NE and track into northern
KS. Steep lapse rates and sufficient shear for rotating storms
could pose a risk of large hail in the strongest cores. Other more
widely scattered convection will develop southward into eastern
CO/western KS/northeast NM, where gusty/damaging wind gusts are
possible.

...NV...
A very deeply-mixed boundary layer will develop this afternoon over
much of northern NV/northeast CA, along with enough CAPE for
high-based thunderstorms. Strong mid/high-level winds and favorable
thermodynamic profiles could result in a few storms capable of
damaging wind gusts.


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SPC Jun 19, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...CENTRAL PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...AND
SIERRA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and
hail today across parts of the the Upper Midwest and central Plains.
Other strong thunderstorms may produce occasional damaging winds
from north Texas/southern Oklahoma into portions of the Southeast,
and separately across parts of the Sierra into the northern Great
Basin.

...Texas into the Southeast/Carolinas...
An expansive area of convection has developed this morning across
north-central TX/southern OK, aided by modest low-level warm
advection and a weak mid-level disturbance. Both low-level and
deep-layer shear remain weak across this region (generally less than
20-25 kt), which should tend to limit updraft organization and
overall thunderstorm severity through the rest of the morning. But,
a very moist airmass and substantial reservoir of instability are
present ahead of this ongoing convection and south of a surface cold
front extending across TX into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley.

Current expectations are for an isolated severe/damaging wind threat
to persist downstream into the afternoon across these areas as the
moist airmass undergoes additional destabilization with daytime
heating. Considered including higher wind probabilities, but
confidence in a more organized/severe MCS remains low owing to the
weak deep-layer shear. Additional thunderstorms have also formed
south into central/south-central TX this morning. This activity may
also pose some risk for severe winds with the stronger cores as it
develops east-southeastward through the day, even though shear and
overall updraft organization will remain modest.

The Marginal Risk extending into the Southeast/eastern Carolinas has
been generally adjusted southward to account for the position of the
cold front, and expectations that the isolated damaging wind risk
will likely remain confined along/south of this boundary. Stronger
low/mid-level flow associated with the remnants of Arthur over the
eastern Carolinas this morning is forecast to quickly shift offshore
through the day. An isolated severe wind and brief tornado threat
may exist along/ahead of ongoing precipitation across this region,
although instability will remain limited.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will likely develop this
afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula, with a preferential
focus along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze given modest westerly flow
aloft. While low/mid-level winds and related shear are expected to
remain weak, the strongest cores could still become capable of
producing occasional damaging winds as low-level lapse rates steepen
with daytime heating.

...Upper Midwest...
An upper low will remain over northern Manitoba/Ontario today, with
a broad fetch of moderate northwest flow aloft across the northern
Rockies/Plains. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough is forecast
to move across the Dakotas and toward the upper MS Valley by this
evening, with weak surface low pressure into northern MN. Strong
surface heating along with generally 50s surface dewpoints and
convergence near a cold front will lead to scattered storms across
much of MN and western WI. Forecast soundings show cold profiles
aloft over northern areas, though effective bulk shear will be
somewhat weaker with northward extent. Deep-layer shear will be
stronger over southern MN, but instability will not be as favorable
farther south. Even so, cells that develop this afternoon and
evening and track southeastward may be capable of producing severe
hail given the cool mid-level temperatures. Occasional
severe/damaging winds may also occur.

...Central Plains...
Beneath modest northwest flow aloft, surface low pressure will
develop over southeast CO today, with southeasterly low-level winds
across the central Plains. This will aid modest low-level warm/moist
advection, with 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints across KS,
eastern CO, and southern NE. It remains uncertain if any
thunderstorms will develop later today across this region, but the
influence of the upper trough over the northern Plains may yield a
few elevated cells. Additional warm/moist advection this
evening/overnight may also support isolated convective development.
Hail appears to be the primary risk, with moderate
instability/deep-layer shear and somewhat steepened mid-level lapse
rates potentially supporting supercells. However, confidence in
sustained convection remains too low to include greater severe
probabilities.

...Sierra/Northern Great Basin...
As a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances inland from the
eastern Pacific, isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms
should develop later today across parts of the northern Sierra
Mountains into adjacent portions of the Great Basin. While low-level
moisture will remain limited, a very deeply mixed boundary layer and
some mid-level moisture/cooling aloft ahead of the shortwave trough
should support weak instability and thunderstorm potential. This
activity could become strong given some deep-layer shear, with
isolated severe gusts/outflow possible.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 06/19/2026


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SPC Jun 19, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated brief tornadoes and damaging gusts remain possible from far
southern Alabama into the parts of the Florida Panhandle and across
much of Georgia. Scattered damaging winds are likely this evening
into tonight over much of north-central Texas.

...From far southern AL across GA and into SC...
A line of thunderstorms currently extends north-south across central
GA ahead of the midlevel wave. The environment is very moist and 0-1
SRH is over 250 m2/s2 at the JGX radar. Minimal CIN due to the high
PWAT air mass should thus continue to support QLCS tornado potential
as the line of storms moves across GA, and possibly into SC later
tonight.

Farther southwest, robust thunderstorms have developed near Mobile
and will move eastward across far southern AL and the northern and
western FL Panhandle. A very moist and unstable air mass resides
here as well, and stronger westerly flow and shear around the
southern periphery of the upper system will continue to support a
narrow corridor of brief tornado or damaging wind potential.

For more information see mesoscale discussion 1191.

...Much of north-central Texas...
Hot conditions exist across the Abilene to San Angelo area this
evening, with little CIN. The 00Z MAF sounding shows a deep mixed
layer and over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE with a near 60 F dewpoint. Just east
of the low-level lapse rate plume, dewpoints are well into the 70s
F, with 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE into central TX.

Storms are already beginning to form over west-central TX as a cold
front pushes south into the storm-ready air mass. Winds around 850
mb will also increase out of the southeast tonight, aiding unstable
inflow into a developing cluster of storms. Shear and steering
currents aloft are weak, but severe outflow is expected to affect
much of northwest into north-central TX later this evening into
tonight. A general southeastward propagation is most likely, into
the moist plume. Conditions appear favorable for damaging winds, and
localized significant wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Given such
high instability, some of the stronger storms may briefly produce
hail.

..Jewell.. 06/19/2026


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SPC Jun 18, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS...INTO NEW
ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms remain likely from
Kentucky and the central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic, with
primarily damaging wind gusts or marginal hail. Scattered severe
storms are possible from upstate New York into New England, with
damaging wind gusts and tornado potential. A few tornadoes may also
occur over parts of the middle Gulf Coast and southeast states, and
scattered storms may produce damaging winds or marginal hail from
Oklahoma into western North Texas.

...20z Update TX/OK...
Forecast confidence has increased late this afternoon into tonight
that one or more semi-organized clusters of thunderstorms will
develop and spread southeastward across parts of western North TX
with a risk for damaging gusts. Strong convergence near an
anomalously deep surface low and sagging cold front will support
numerous thunderstorms tonight. Despite marginal deep-layer shear
for organization, a hot and very unstable air
mass in vicinity of the surface low will allow for strong cold pool
development, potentially supporting severe outflow gusts. More
isolated damaging gusts and/or marginally severe hail remain
possible farther north into OK. Have upgraded wind probabilities to
15% and a categorical Level 2 Slight Risk for portions of western
North TX.

...Southeast...
Convection associated with the remnants of Arthur will persist
through tonight along a stalled frontal zone in the Southeast. While
clustering has resulted in more linear structures, enhanced flow
aloft and pockets of stronger low-level shear near the front may
still support occasional rotating updrafts, with the risk for a
couple of tornadoes or damaging gusts from eastern AL, into GA and
the western Carolinas through tonight. Have reduced maximum tornado
probabilities, but will maintain a broad 5% for occasional supercell
structures along/near the front.

...New England...
The broken band of storms ahead of the cold front should continue
eastward and gradually weaken into this evening. Southern portions
of the line over MA, CT and RI may remain stronger given better
buoyancy, but storm coverage here should become more isolated with
time. Damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two remain possible.
Have trimmed probabilities behind the cold front where the risk has
decreased. No other changes were made, see the previous discussion
for more information.

..Lyons.. 06/18/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026/

...NY/New England...
A fast-moving low-topped squall line is tracking eastward across NY.
Low and mid level wind fields in this region are very strong,
contributing to occasional bowing structures and QLCS mesocyclones.
This activity will spread into VT/NH through the afternoon with a
continued risk of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Confidence
in severe storms farther south into southern New England is lower,
but at least isolated strong/damaging wind gusts are possible.

...KY into Mid Atlantic...
A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends across KY
into southern VA. Strong heating along and south of the boundary
will likely result in renewed convection this afternoon, in a zone
of moderate westerly flow aloft and CAPE values around 2000 J/kg. A
few severe storms are expected in this corridor, with activity
moving into northern NC later today. Damaging winds are the main
risk.

...Gulf Coast into Carolinas...
The remnant circulation of Arthur is becoming more progressive with
time, and is accelerating eastward. As this occurs, the zone of
relatively strong southerly low-level winds will also shift across
AL into GA and eventually SC/NC tonight. Ample low-level moisture
and high theta-e values will coincide with the region of strong
shear, and CAM solutions suggest clusters of thunderstorms in this
area as well. This suggests at least some risk of damaging wind
gusts and tornadoes through the afternoon and night as the system
moves northeastward.

...TX/OK...
Scattered thunderstorms will occasional hail risk will slowly
diminish across northern OK this afternoon. Later today, new
thunderstorms are expected to develop in a hot and very unstable air
mass in vicinity of the surface low near ABI/SJT. These slow-moving
storms will have some damaging wind and hail risk through the
evening.


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