SPC Jun 13, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight from
parts of the central and southern Plains to the Lower Missouri and
Middle Mississippi Valleys. Swaths of damaging wind gusts, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

...Central/Southern Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley...
Several different areas are already convectively active this
morning, including south-central IA/north-central MO where a bowing
segment is moving southeastward through the region, and farther
south from central/southern MO into far west-central IL, where
elevated thunderstorm are being maintained by modest warm-air
advection. Most immediate severe potential is downstream of the
bowing segment in south-central IA/north-central MO where damaging
wind gusts and isolated hail are possible over the next few hours.
Thereafter, expansive coverage of the ongoing storms in
central/southern MO introduces notable uncertainty regarding the
extent and strength of afternoon destabilization.

General expectation is for the ongoing showers and thunderstorms to
persist, aided by mesoscale ascent attendant to an MCV traversing
the region. Cloud cover will limit heating, but ample low-level
moisture will still support moderate buoyancy. Moderate deep-layer
shear is anticipated over this area as well, with perhaps some more
mesoscale enhancement attendant to the MCV. As a result, a few
stronger embedded multicells and isolated supercells are possible.
Isolated large hail and damaging gusts could occur with the
strongest storms embedded within this likely broad area of showers
and thunderstorms.

A more complex scenario is anticipated along the western edge of the
MO cluster, extending back further westward into north-central KS.
Current surface analysis shows an outflow boundary over extreme
southeast NE arcing back through north-central KS to a low over far
northwest KS. A more substantial surface low exists over southwest
KS. Surface analysis also places a cold front from northwest IA
southwestward to just north of the northwest KS low in far southwest
NE. These boundaries should all influence convective evolution
today, with the outflow/differential heating boundary along the
western edge of the MO cluster likely playing a part as well.

Strong diurnal heating/steepening low-level lapse rates preceding
the surface lows will result in scattered thunderstorm development
near/ahead of the southeast-moving cold front, with the most intense
development likely favoring where the front intercepts the western
periphery of the outflow boundary. This intersection will most
likely be over central into northeast KS. Strong buoyancy and
moderate deep-layer shear will support robust updrafts capable of
large to very large hail early in the convective cycle, before
transitioning to a more linear mode as the front continues
southeastward.

Another area of afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated
from southern MO into west-central MO and far southeast KS, along
the western edge of the outflow/differential heating associated with
the ongoing MO cluster. Like the area farther northwest, large to
isolated very large hail is anticipated initially. Additionally,
this region could act as a corridor for upscale growth as the
development along the cold front begins to interact with the more
in-situ development along this boundary. Damaging winds will be the
most prominent risk within this corridor this evening, potentially
including some significant (75+ mph) wind gusts.

Despite numerous boundaries, the environmental conditions (i.e. high
LCLs and modest surface wind) and anticipated convective evolution
(i.e. outflow-dominant storms with quick evolution towards a linear
mode) only suggest a low-probability tornado threat from discrete
storms. A somewhat higher tornado risk could materialize within any
more robust convective line that develops, particularly during
evening as the low-level jet increases.

...Lower MI...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of a cold front
moving through the region today. Strong low to mid-level flow could
support a few more organized storms, beginning across northern Lower
MI now and then extending back southwestward with time this
afternoon/evening. Primary risks are isolated large hail and
damaging gusts, but a brief tornado is possible as well.

...Carolinas/Coastal Southeast...
Ample heating within a moist environment south of a weak front will
result in moderately strong diurnal destabilization, with convective
development aided by the front and coastal sea breeze. Some
pulse-type locally severe storms capable of downbursts/wind damage
may occur this afternoon through around sunset.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/13/2026


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SPC Jun 13, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS...MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
central and southern Plains into the Missouri Valley. Swaths of
damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes are all
possible.

...Synopsis...
Within the base of a broad large-scale trough and accompanying belt
of strong midlevel westerlies over the northern CONUS, an embedded
positive-tilt midlevel trough will overspread the northern Plains
through the period. In the low-levels, a weak surface low will move
slowly eastward across western/central KS during the day, before
being overtaken by a cold front into the evening hours.

...Central/Southern Plains into the Missouri Valley...
At the start of the period, a cluster of elevated thunderstorms
should be tracking eastward from NE into IA -- along the nose of a
gradually weakening nocturnal low-level jet. Steep midlevel lapse
rates and 40-50 kt of effective shear will favor large hail with
this activity. At the same time, a convectively augmented midlevel
impulse and lingering convection should be advancing eastward from
eastern KS into MO. Diurnal heating of a moist air mass should favor
a gradual increase in convective coverage and intensity along
related outflow into the afternoon hours. Moderate surface-based
buoyancy and 30-40 kt of effective shear will support organized
clusters and potentially supercells structures, with a risk of
damaging wind gusts and large hail. Some guidance suggests that this
activity may grow upscale into one or more organized clusters while
moving east-southeastward into the evening hours.

Farther west, strong diurnal heating/steepening low-level lapse
rates preceding the surface low will result in scattered
thunderstorm development from the central Plains into the lower MO
Valley. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture
will yield a strongly unstable air mass, which combined with around
40 kt of effective shear, will favor organized clusters and
semi-discrete supercells. Large hail and locally severe wind gusts
will be the main concerns with initially semi-discrete storms. With
time, additional thunderstorm development is expected along the
southeastward-moving cold front. As a result, several
intense/organized clusters will spread east-southeastward through a
corridor of strong surface-based buoyancy -- posing an increasing
risk of scattered severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph). Despite the
expectation for upscale growth, embedded supercells will remain
possible, and given ample low-level shear and rich moisture, a
couple tornadoes will also be possible.

..Weinman.. 06/13/2026


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SPC Jun 12, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected
across parts of the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast,
mainly this afternoon and evening. Severe storms with a threat of
large hail and severe wind gusts will also be possible across parts
of the south-central High Plains.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with minimal changes required
to the existing probability lines based on ongoing convective trends
and recent model guidance. The primary outlook amendment was the
introduction of 5% hail probabilities across portions of eastern
Nebraska.

...Nebraska...
12z ensemble guidance hinted at thunderstorm development across
eastern NE during the 09-12 UTC period as a weak low-level cold
front impinges on a plume of northward returning moisture. More
recent runs of the RAP/RRFS/HRRR continue to show this potential and
depict a fairly robust thermodynamic environment featuring MUCAPE
values upwards of 4000 J/kg. 18 UTC RAOBS from the southern High
Plains and Rockies sampled steep mid-level lapse rates that will
advect eastward over the next 18 hours, and recent model solutions
appear to be capturing surface moisture return well. These trends
lend sufficient confidence to introduce a targeted hail risk area.

...Mississippi/Alabama...
5% wind probabilities were removed across northern MS/AL based on
recent radar trends, which depict the outflow boundary of a decaying
MCS rapidly progressing south and undercutting developing
convection. Strong buoyancy immediately downstream may support some
localized damaging wind threat through the afternoon, but latest
model guidance largely shows diminishing convective activity as the
outflow surges south.

..Moore.. 06/12/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026/

...Mid-Atlantic into New England this afternoon/evening...
Within the northern stream, a shortwave trough will progress
east-northeastward over the lower Great Lakes this
afternoon/evening, while an associated surface cold front moves
eastward into New England and southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic.
Forcing for ascent will not be particularly strong and the stronger
midlevel flow/deep-layer vertical shear will remain displaced to the
cool side of the front. Still, 25-30 kt midlevel flow will overlap
the warm sector this afternoon from northern Chesapeake Bay
northward into eastern NY. Strong surface heating is ongoing from
the Piedmont into VA/southern PA, with a few more cloud patches from
northeast PA into central NY. The net result will be moderate
buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) in an environment with steep
low-level lapse rates and weak upper flow, favoring multicell
clusters with occasional wind damage. The weak forcing for ascent
suggests that widely scattered, loosely organized clusters will be
possible this afternoon, with some gaps in the wind threat.

...Southern High Plains late this afternoon into early tonight...
Lee cyclogenesis across southeast CO will draw low-level moisture
northwestward into the southern High Plains as a stalled front
begins to lift northward across the TX Panhandle. Thunderstorm
development is expected this afternoon/evening with upslope flow
into the higher terrain of NM, and along the Raton Mesa. Deep-layer
vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for supercells
initially off Raton Mesa, with large hail the primary threat. Some
upscale growth and an increase in the potential for severe outflow
gusts is expected late this evening as storms spread eastward toward
southwest KS and the northern Panhandles in association with a
nocturnal low-level jet and strengthened warm advection/moisture
transport.

...Eastern KS/western MO early Saturday...
In response to low-level warm advection and returning moisture,
elevated convection is probable late in the period across eastern
KS/western MO. This area will be near the east edge of the steep
midlevel lapse rates, where isolated large hail will be possible.
There will also be some potential for evolution into a cluster or
two with isolated damaging gusts. Farther north into eastern NE
(very near the end of the period) there will be a chance for
elevated storms with some hail. This area will be re-evaluated this
afternoon in the 20z update.


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SPC Jun 12, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected
across parts of the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast,
mainly this afternoon and evening. Severe storms with a threat of
large hail and severe wind gusts will also be possible across parts
of the south-central High Plains.

...Mid-Atlantic into New England this afternoon/evening...
Within the northern stream, a shortwave trough will progress
east-northeastward over the lower Great Lakes this
afternoon/evening, while an associated surface cold front moves
eastward into New England and southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic.
Forcing for ascent will not be particularly strong and the stronger
midlevel flow/deep-layer vertical shear will remain displaced to the
cool side of the front. Still, 25-30 kt midlevel flow will overlap
the warm sector this afternoon from northern Chesapeake Bay
northward into eastern NY. Strong surface heating is ongoing from
the Piedmont into VA/southern PA, with a few more cloud patches from
northeast PA into central NY. The net result will be moderate
buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) in an environment with steep
low-level lapse rates and weak upper flow, favoring multicell
clusters with occasional wind damage. The weak forcing for ascent
suggests that widely scattered, loosely organized clusters will be
possible this afternoon, with some gaps in the wind threat.

...Southern High Plains late this afternoon into early tonight...
Lee cyclogenesis across southeast CO will draw low-level moisture
northwestward into the southern High Plains as a stalled front
begins to lift northward across the TX Panhandle. Thunderstorm
development is expected this afternoon/evening with upslope flow
into the higher terrain of NM, and along the Raton Mesa. Deep-layer
vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for supercells
initially off Raton Mesa, with large hail the primary threat. Some
upscale growth and an increase in the potential for severe outflow
gusts is expected late this evening as storms spread eastward toward
southwest KS and the northern Panhandles in association with a
nocturnal low-level jet and strengthened warm advection/moisture
transport.

...Eastern KS/western MO early Saturday...
In response to low-level warm advection and returning moisture,
elevated convection is probable late in the period across eastern
KS/western MO. This area will be near the east edge of the steep
midlevel lapse rates, where isolated large hail will be possible.
There will also be some potential for evolution into a cluster or
two with isolated damaging gusts. Farther north into eastern NE
(very near the end of the period) there will be a chance for
elevated storms with some hail. This area will be re-evaluated this
afternoon in the 20z update.

..Thompson/Chalmers.. 06/12/2026


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