SPC May 7, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FLORDIA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a
couple tornadoes are possible today across southeast Alabama, and
portions of south Georgia and north Florida, including the
Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible in
parts of the Carolinas, as well as the lower Rio Grande Valley and
Deep South Texas.

...Southern AL/Southern GA/FL Panhandle into northern FL...
Regional radar imagery shows showers and thunderstorms ongoing from
far eastern LA northeastward into southern GA. These storms are
occurring along and ahead of a cold front that extends from a
surface low over northwest GA southwestward into the western Gulf.
The environment preceding this front is moist, modestly buoyant, and
strongly sheared (i.e. 50 to 70 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear). These
conditions are supporting occasional intensification of the updrafts
embedded within the predominately linear structures.

This trend is forecast to continue for at least the next few hours
before the stronger low-level flow (which currently extends from the
western FL Panhandle/southern AL through southern GA) gradually
shifts northeastward. As such, the greatest tornado potential will
exist during the first few hours of the forecast period. Otherwise,
damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard as storms progress
southeast through the central/western FL Panhandle and northern FL.

...Carolinas...
Buoyancy is expected to be lower here than areas farther southwest,
with poor lapse rates expected to limit instability to generally
less than 500 j/kg. The surface low over northwest GA is forecast to
shift northeastward throughout the day, with low to mid-level wind
fields strengthening at the same time. Ascent near the low and
associated front coupled with the modest buoyancy will result in
occasionally deeper convective elements along and ahead of the cold
front from late morning into afternoon. Robust deep-layer wind
fields across the region will support the potential for damaging
gusts with any deeper, more persistent updrafts.

...Lower Rio Grande Valley/South TX...
A few isolated thunderstorms have developed east of Del Rio where
steep mid-level lapse rates are supporting elevated buoyancy atop a
stable boundary layer (as observed on the 12Z DRT sounding). This
elevated buoyancy will likely persist throughout the day, combining
with strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e. effective bulk shear
from 50 to 60 kt) to support the potential for supercell structures
capable of isolated large hail and locally damaging wind gusts.
Additionally, there is a low-probability chance for a few storms
farther south into the Lower RGV this evening, where the environment
remains supportive of large hail.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/07/2026


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SPC May 7, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING
THE PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a
couple tornadoes are possible Thursday across southeast Alabama, and
portions of south Georgia and north Florida, including the
Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible in
parts of the Carolinas, as well as the lower Rio Grande Valley and
deep South Texas.

...Synopsis...

Separate vorticity maxima over the northern Plains and Raton Mesa
vicinity this evening are forecast to phase while progressing
through the southern periphery of broader-scale troughing present
across eastern Canada into the OH Valley and Northeast. That pattern
evolution will contribute to more substantial height falls from the
mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians and Southeast on
Thursday. Strong, mid/upper-level flow will be maintained within the
base of the deepening trough from the lower-MS Valley into the
Southeast and mid-Atlantic region.

At the surface, a cold front is expected to initially stretch from
the Tidewater region to diffuse low pressure over the western
Carolinas into northeast GA, and then southwest to the central Gulf
Coast. That boundary will slowly advance southeast through the day,
with that feature along with any convective outflow boundaries
serving as the foci for strong to severe storm development.

...Carolinas to northeast Gulf Coast...

Convection-allowing model guidance suggests that a
west-to-east-oriented, pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will be
ongoing at the start of the forecast period (07/12z) across southern
AL and the FL Panhandle into southern GA, rooted within a
warm-advection regime along a 40-50 kt low-level jet. The low-level
jet will aid in the northeastward advection of an increasingly moist
boundary layer from off the northeast Gulf with dewpoints increasing
into the low 70s within the inflow region of the early-day storms.
That moisture will largely contribute to MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg,
despite poor mid-level lapse rates.

The presence of the low-level jet will support initially strong
near-ground shear (i.e., effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) within the
instability axis preceding the storms. However, that feature is
forecast to gradually weaken while migrating east through the
morning, with seemingly the best tornado potential existing during
the first few hours of the forecast period. Otherwise, damaging wind
gusts will be the primary hazard as storms progress southeast
through the level 2/Slight Risk area.

Farther to the northeast across the NC/SC Piedmont and Coastal
Plain, poor lapse rates are expected to limit instability to
generally less than 500 j/kg. However, deep-layer wind fields will
be strong, suggesting the potential for locally strong wind gusts
with any deeper convective elements forming along and ahead of the
cold front from late morning into afternoon.

...Lower Rio Grande Valley/deep South Texas...

There is a model signal for at least isolated thunderstorm
development at the start of the forecast period (07/12z) with the
location of the storms varying from model to model. RAP-based
soundings suggest that the storms would be slightly elevated above a
stable, near-surface layer within a moderately unstable environment
with MUCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg. While mid-level lapse rates aren't
expected to be particularly steep, the presence of 50-60+ kt
effective bulk shear magnitudes would support the potential for
supercell structures capable of isolated occurrences of large hail
and locally damaging wind gusts. The severe-weather threat is expect
to remain confined to the morning hours.

..Mead/Lyons.. 05/07/2026


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SPC May 7, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to continue tonight
across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast.
Supercells ongoing across central and southern parts of Mississippi
and Alabama into western Georgia will remain capable of all
severe-weather hazards for the next few hours. Upscale growth into
storm clusters and/or bowing line segments is expected overnight
with mainly a damaging wind and isolated tornado risk focused from
southern Mississippi into central Georgia.

...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast...

Early-evening surface analysis placed a convectively augmented cold
front from northern GA through central MS into the lower Rio Grande
Valley. The air mass ahead of the front is very moist, characterized
by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s from LA into MS and AL with MLCAPE
of 1000-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear resides across the warm
sector with effective bulk shear magnitudes of 60-70+ kt. This
parameter space has supported the development of multiple supercells
ahead of the front from southern MS into west-central AL, amidst
additional strong to severe storms. The southern MS supercells have
a history of producing tornadoes, and based on the 00z LIX sounding
and regional VWP data, are in a zone of enhanced low-level shear
with effective SRH of 300-350 m2/2. For additional information on
these storms, see MCDs 658 and 659.

Convection-allowing model guidance is suggestive that the ongoing,
semi-discrete storms will gradually grow upscale into clusters
and/or bowing line segments tonight along the southeastward-moving
cold front, with the most intense storms being focused along the
low-level jet axis from southern MS through central and southern AL
into central GA. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will become
the predominant hazards with that storm-mode transition.

...Lower Rio Grande Valley...

Visible satellite indicates multiple attempts at storm initiation
recently along the high terrain of northwest Mexico, to the
southwest of Eagle Pass, TX. Convection-allowing model data suggest
that isolated, strong to severe storms will become increasingly
possible after about 05z in the same general vicinity with that
activity potentially crossing the Rio Grande into deep South TX.
Moderate instability and rather strong deep-layer shear will
conditionally favor supercell storm modes with a risk for large hail
and locally damaging wind gusts. A level 1/Marginal Risk will be
maintained due to uncertainty in storm coverage.

..Mead.. 05/07/2026


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SPC May 6, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening from central Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible across portions of central Mississippi and Alabama
before a shift to a more of a damaging wind risk into the late
evening/overnight.

...TX/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast...
A corridor of strong mid to high-level west-southwesterly flow
extends from TX into the central and southern Appalachians to the
southeast of a larger-scale positively tilted trough with embedded
shortwaves. Morning surface mesoanalysis depicted a cold front
slowly moving southward across south-central TX through northern MS
and into the southern Appalachians. South of the boundary, a
quasi-zonal flow regime with little mid-level height change is
expected through tonight. A moist airmass maintained by southerly
flow will yield surface dewpoints ranging from the mid-upper 60s to
lower to mid 70s deg F south of the front. Despite extensive cloud
cover owing to the moist boundary layer (reference the 16 g/kg
lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios from the 12 UTC Lake Charles and
Slidell, LA raobs), heating and persistent weak low-level warm
advection will combine to erode convective inhibition and yield
scattered storms developing later this afternoon. Moderately steep
mid-level lapse rates and seasonably rich moisture/PW will support
strong buoyancy ahead of the front (i.e. 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE) over
LA/MS. Gradual intensification of storms in the moist environment
will likely result in several strong supercells eventually
developing late this afternoon through the evening. Large to very
large hail, damaging gusts, and tornadoes will be possible with the
stronger storms. The tornado risk is forecast to peak late this
afternoon through the evening as southwesterly 850-mb flow
strengthens from 25 kt to 35-40 kt. Environmental conditions support
the potential for a strong tornado during this timeframe. Whether
or not storms can realize this increasing low-level shear will
largely be a function of storm mode. Storms should eventually begin
to cluster and to grow upscale, with an increasing damaging wind
threat continuing downstream into Alabama and Georgia.

The front will continue slowly southward, and the very moist
environment could support additional warm sector storms throughout
much of the evening and overnight, supporting a continued risk for
all severe hazards, perhaps extending into northern GA and Upstate
SC late tonight.

..Smith/Thompson.. 05/06/2026


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