Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large hail, wind damage and perhaps a
couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening
across parts of the central Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will
also pose potential for strong to severe winds across the lower to
mid Missouri Valley.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will develop over the western states today, with
increasing southwest winds aloft late in the day and overnight
across the Rockies and into the High Plains. Preceding the western
trough, a progressive shortwave will move from the Great Lakes and
into the Northeast, allowing temporary height rises across the upper
Midwest/MS Valley. Behind this wave, high pressure will bring stable
conditions into the northern Plains.
At the surface, low pressure will develop over the central High
Plains, with a trough extending from eastern WY into western TX.
Meanwhile, a stalled front will be situated across northeast CO into
northern KS and toward IA/northern IL, with easterly winds across NE
and IA. A moist air mass will reside south of this boundary, with
60s F dewpoints prevalent. Backed winds will help bring this
moisture westward toward northeast CO and western NE by late
afternoon as 850 mb winds increase toward evening. Shear profiles
will thus become increasingly favorable from late afternoon through
evening for supercells, with large hail, damaging winds and perhaps
a couple tornadoes from CO into western NE/KS.
East of there, another concentration of strong to severe storms is
expected from eastern NE into IA, northern MO and northeast KS near
the boundary.
Elsewhere, a broad fetch of 20-30 kt southerly 850 mb winds will
maintain a moist air mass across the lower to middle MS Valley and
across the OH Valley. Here, pockets of stronger instability will
support scattered strong storms during the afternoon.
...Central Plains...
Storms are likely to form near the Front Range after 21Z, with
activity developing eastward into NE and KS. A few supercells appear
likely with time, producing damaging hail and severe wind gusts.
Westerly winds aloft atop the deep low-level easterlies will
elongate hodographs with over 50 kt effective shear, while SRH
values favor supercells and severe bows through evening.
Farther east, strong instability will develop near the east-west
boundary, with scattered severe storms developing around 21Z. Some
of these storms may produce hail over 2.00" diameter as lapse rates
aloft will remain steep, and with ample moisture.
Additional isolated activity is possible along the dryline from
southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Here,
shear will be weak but a narrow zone of uncapped air mass with a
backing dryline may support isolated storms with locally severe hail
or wind gusts.
..Jewell/Squitieri.. 05/16/2026
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