SPC Oct 24, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of New
Mexico and far west Texas today.

...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to the existing severe
probabilities as the forecast remains generally on track. See the
prior discussion below for additional details.

Elsewhere, the General Thunder area was trimmed across portions of
the northern Plains/upper Midwest in the wake of the passage of a
surface cold front and accompanying precipitation.

..Chalmers.. 10/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026/

...NM/Four Corners/Far West TX...
Recent satellite imagery continues to show a cyclone centered over
the Lower CO River Valley with expansive ridging downstream from the
western Gulf through the Upper Great Lakes. A shortwave trough is
currently progressing through the southeastern periphery of the
Lower CO Valley cyclone over northwestern Mexico. General
expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue northeastward
today with some loss of amplitude as it moves within the confluent
flow between the western CONUS upper low and central/eastern CONUS
ridging.

Persistence of mostly southwesterly flow aloft will continue to
promote showers and thunderstorms from the Four Corners vicinity
across NM and into far west TX. The airmass becomes more stable with
northern extent but should remain buoyant enough to support
continued thunderstorms. More widespread cloud cover is anticipated
across northern portions of the region, but filtered daytime heating
may result in greater destabilization and attendant risk of a few
strong/severe storms capable of hail.

Greater buoyancy is expected farther south, where dewpoints will
likely be in the upper 50s to low 60s amid afternoon highs in the
mid/upper 70s. Moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear will
persist across area as well, supporting the potential for
supercells. Additionally, a more southeasterly component to the
low-level flow is possible from south-central/southeast NM into far
west TX, which could support slower storm motions and a relatively
greater potential for hail and tornadoes. Some very large hail
greater than 2" in diameter is also more possible here. This region
should also experience greater large-scale ascent as the shortwave
trough moves through during the late afternoon/early evening. This
greater ascent could result in a more linear mode and the potential
for a few bowing segments. Overall, there appears to be a relatively
greater severe potential from south-central NM into southeast NM and
far west TX compared to areas farther north and west.


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SPC Oct 24, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TX....

...SUMMARY...
Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of New
Mexico and far west Texas today.

...NM/Four Corners/Far West TX...
Recent satellite imagery continues to show a cyclone centered over
the Lower CO River Valley with expansive ridging downstream from the
western Gulf through the Upper Great Lakes. A shortwave trough is
currently progressing through the southeastern periphery of the
Lower CO Valley cyclone over northwestern Mexico. General
expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue northeastward
today with some loss of amplitude as it moves within the confluent
flow between the western CONUS upper low and central/eastern CONUS
ridging.

Persistence of mostly southwesterly flow aloft will continue to
promote showers and thunderstorms from the Four Corners vicinity
across NM and into far west TX. The airmass becomes more stable with
northern extent but should remain buoyant enough to support
continued thunderstorms. More widespread cloud cover is anticipated
across northern portions of the region, but filtered daytime heating
may result in greater destabilization and attendant risk of a few
strong/severe storms capable of hail.

Greater buoyancy is expected farther south, where dewpoints will
likely be in the upper 50s to low 60s amid afternoon highs in the
mid/upper 70s. Moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear will
persist across area as well, supporting the potential for
supercells. Additionally, a more southeasterly component to the
low-level flow is possible from south-central/southeast NM into far
west TX, which could support slower storm motions and a relatively
greater potential for hail and tornadoes. Some very large hail
greater than 2" in diameter is also more possible here. This region
should also experience greater large-scale ascent as the shortwave
trough moves through during the late afternoon/early evening. This
greater ascent could result in a more linear mode and the potential
for a few bowing segments. Overall, there appears to be a relatively
greater severe potential from south-central NM into southeast NM and
far west TX compared to areas farther north and west.

..Mosier/Halbert.. 10/24/2026


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SPC Oct 24, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TX....

...SUMMARY...
Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of New
Mexico and far west Texas today.

...NM/Far West TX...
Morning water vapor imagery shows an upper low over southwest AZ,
and a pronounced shortwave trough in the southeast quadrant of the
low over northern Mexico. This feature will rotate northeastward
today across southern New Mexico and West TX, aiding in the
development of strong/severe storms.

Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will occur
through the day over central/northern NM in advance of the
approaching upper trough. Relatively cool air aloft and pockets of
daytime heating may result in sufficient destabilization for a risk
of a few strong/severe storms capable of hail. This activity will
spread northeastward into a progressively less favorable air mass
for severe storms by early evening.

Farther south, more abundant sun/heating is expected with
temperatures warming into the 80s over southern NM and the Trans
Pecos region of TX. Scattered afternoon thunderstorm development is
expected - mainly after 18z. Strengthening southeasterly low-level
winds and favorable deep-layer shear will be favorable for supercell
storm structures capable of large hail and gusty/damaging winds.
Forecast hodographs also suggest sufficient low-level shear for a
tornado or two if discrete storm mode can be maintained. It appears
the main risk will weaken after 01z with the onset of nocturnal
cooling.

..Hart/Dean.. 10/24/2026


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SPC Oct 24, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of New
Mexico and far west Texas today.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough over the western US and Rockies is forecast to
become increasingly fragmented as the primary vort max lifts
northeastward from the northern Rockies into southern Canada.
Southern portions of the main trough will be reinforced by an
upper-level cyclone emerging from northern Baja, forecast to deepen
modestly as it moves over the Desert Southwest. Relatively strong
southwesterly flow aloft will precede the southern stream low
extending eastward across New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. At
the surface, a cold front will move southward across the Plains
trailing from a deepening surface low in southern Canada. A much
weaker surface cyclone is forecast to develop over the Four Corners.
A relatively moist air mass will be enhanced by weak height falls,
and the developing surface cyclones, which should gradually
strengthen south-southeast winds in the lowest 1-2km AGL.

...Southwest and Four Corners...
Initial ascent from the approaching upper low will begin to
overspread the Four Corners relatively early in the forecast period.
Despite cooler surface temperatures, the moist air mass and
steepening mid-level lapse rates will contribute to sufficient
buoyancy (MUCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) for storm
development/intensification as early as 12-13z. As wind fields aloft
strengthen (40-50 kt EBWD), at least an isolated risk for hail may
materialize.

More robust storm development is expected to gradually occur east of
a weak surface trough later in the diurnal cycle as destabilization
increases across south-central NM into northern Mexico and Far West
TX. MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg amidst modestly veering, but elongated
hodographs promoting organized clusters and supercells. Large hail
(1-2 inches) will be possible given the degree of buoyancy and
cooler mid-level temperatures. The most likely corridor for larger
hail may be confined to the greater instability reservoir across
southern portions of the risk area. While low-level shear will
remain on the weaker side, at least some curvature in the lowest 1-2
km of model hodographs could support an isolated tornado risk with
the more strongly rotating storms.

Eventually, the meridional nature of the upper-level flow and
increasing storm coverage should favor a transition to more
cluster/linear storm modes into the evening across southern NM and
West TX. Severe gusts will be possible, though eventually convection
should weaken as it encounters a more stable and drier environment
farther east.

...Northeast NM and southeast CO...
The surface cold front is forecast to move southward over the Plains
through the day. Ahead of it, low-level upslope flow will maintain
modest surface moisture sufficient for weak destabilization.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected along the frontal zone and
across the higher terrain through the afternoon. While weak buoyancy
should temper overall intensity, veering wind profiles could support
occasional intensification of some clusters. A low-end risk for
severe gusts or isolated hail is possible.

..Lyons/Thornton.. 10/24/2026


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