SPC Jul 15, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
PARTS OF NEW YORK...VERMONT...AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND A SMALL PART
OF WESTERN MAINE...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MONTANA AND SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED RISK IN NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are expected tonight across parts of
northern New York and New England. Thunderstorms with scattered
severe winds and hail will also be possible across portions of
Montana.

...New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic...

The glancing influence of a shortwave trough and associated
mid/upper-level jet streaks moving through Quebec have contributed
to a recent increase in storm coverage and intensity from portions
of the St. Lawrence Valley into northern parts of VT and NH. Owing
to considerable clouds and wildfire smoke, a baroclinic zone is
analyzed from northern VT through central NH to the Southern Coast
of ME. The 00z observed soundings across the region indicate the
presence of a capping inversion at the base of a relatively warm and
dry EML, which casts some uncertainty on updraft intensity and
duration, owing to the deleterious effects of entrainment and
existing convective inhibition.

However, any storms that can become sustained will do so within a
kinematic environment featuring strong deep-layer shear, which will
conditionally support the potential for large hail, damaging winds
with significant gusts to 70-75 mph possible, and perhaps a couple
of tornadoes. The best potential for that threat to be realized may
be with the rapidly intensifying storms across portions of eastern
Ontario, which are projected to reach northern NY within the next
2-3 hours. As such, severe probabilities have been adjusted in
portions of NY to account for the Ontario storms.

...Montana...

A cluster of supercells capable of large hail has developed this
evening over central MT within a relatively moist, post-frontal
upslope regime within MLCAPE as high as 2000-3000 J/kg, per latest
objective analysis. With time, the presence of large
temperature-dewpoint spreads and a resultant, well-mixed boundary
layer will enhance downdraft potential, leading to a cold-pool
driven convective system with an attendant risk for damaging winds
with gusts up to 75 mph.

For additional near-term guidance, see MCD 1617.

..Mead.. 07/15/2026


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SPC Jul 14, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEW YORK...NORTHERN
VERMONT...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND MAINE....

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are expected today across parts of
northern New York and New England. Thunderstorms with scattered
severe winds and isolated hail will also be possible across portions
of Montana.

...New England...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a belt of 80+ knot mid level winds
nosing from eastern Ontario into Quebec, with mid-level height falls
and large-scale forcing spreading into northern New England. This
has been aiding in multiple rounds of intense thunderstorms over
Quebec this morning, but so far this activity has struggled to make
it into the US due to a more stable air mass. This will change
through the day as a moist and moderately unstable air mass advects
eastward into parts of New England ahead of the primary convective
activity. Widespread smoke from upstream fires will also somewhat
limit daytime heating today, although the extent of the cooling is
uncertain.

Present indications are that several convective cells and clusters
will track southeastward across parts of eastern NY, VT/NH and
western ME later this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings in
this region show favorable CAPE/shear combinations for supercell
storms capable of damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes.
Larger bowing clusters may also evolve, with a greater risk of
damaging winds. This activity may persist after midnight with a
continued severe risk.

...MT...
A shortwave trough now over NV and its associated mid-level speed
max will rotate northward into parts of ID/MT this afternoon and
evening, aiding in the development of thunderstorms over the
mountains. Storms are expected to spread northeastward into the
Plains during the evening, with a risk of severe wind gusts in the
strongest storms.

...FL...
Hot and humid conditions will lead to strong afternoon CAPE values
and scattered thunderstorms over the central FL peninsula. Forecast
soundings show slightly enhanced westerly flow around 700mb across
this area, which may aid in occasionally damaging winds in the
stronger cores.

..Hart/Squitieri.. 07/14/2026


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SPC Jul 14, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds (isolated
75+ mph), large to very large hail, and tornadoes (some strong) are
expected today across parts of northern New York and New England.
Thunderstorms with scattered severe winds and isolated hail will
also be possible across portions of Montana.

...Northeast...
An active and potentially impactful severe weather event remains
apparent today across parts of the Northeast/northern New England.
Ongoing convection this morning now moving over the St. Lawrence
River in Quebec may tend to weaken as it approaches the
international border in the next couple of hours, as MUCAPE remains
quite weak at the moment with eastward extent into ME (reference the
12Z observed sounding from CAR). But if it persists, then an
isolated hail threat would be possible. In the wake of this
activity, an EML and strong mid/upper-level jet will overspread much
of the Northeast. Steepening lapse rates aloft combined with
filtered daytime heating and gradually increasing low-level moisture
advecting northeastward across the St. Lawrence River Valley will
all aid in the development of moderate to locally strong
instability. MLCAPE may peak in the 2000-3000 J/kg range by mid to
late afternoon across northern NY/VT/NH into western ME, generally
along/south of outflow from the morning convection. Strong mid-level
flow (around 50-60 kt) associated with a west-northwesterly
mid-level jet will foster similar values of effective bulk shear and
easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for
intense supercells.

Current expectations are for organized severe thunderstorms,
including a mix of clusters and supercells, to move southeastward
across southern Quebec by 19-22Z. The rather favorable thermodynamic
and kinematic environment across northern New England suggests a
significant threat for severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph possible)
and large to very large hail (isolated 2+ inches) will exist with
this activity. While low-level flow will tend to remain from the
west-southwest, it is forecast to strengthen through the day, and
also veer strongly to north-northwesterly with height through
mid/upper levels. The resulting effective SRH appears more than
sufficient for updraft rotation, and multiple tornadoes may occur. A
narrow corridor of greater tornado potential (including strong
tornadoes) may exist this afternoon and evening across parts of
western into central ME if supercells can be maintained. Otherwise,
one or more intense clusters will likely spread east-southeastward
towards the coast through the evening while continuing to pose a
threat for scattered to numerous damaging winds and line-embedded
tornadoes.

...Montana...
A subtle mid-level shortwave trough on the western periphery of
upper ridging over the north-central CONUS will translate
northeastward through the period across the northern Rockies and
adjacent High Plains. Low-level moisture should continue to
gradually spread westward from eastern into central MT through the
day to the north of a weak surface low. The airmass from southwest
to central MT will destabilize by mid afternoon as daytime heating
occurs, and the boundary layer is forecast to become rather
well-mixed.

Large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level shortwave trough
and attendant 40-50 kt mid-level jet will support convective
development across the higher terrain of southwest MT by late
afternoon. This initial activity may pose both an isolated hail and
severe wind threat given weak instability and moderate to strong
deep-layer shear. With time, this activity should tend to cluster as
it spreads into central/eastern MT through the evening and
encounters greater low-level moisture and related instability. With
steepened low to mid-level lapse rates expected, scattered
severe/damaging winds and isolated hail appear possible with this
cluster. A Slight Risk has been included for parts of central of MT
where greater confidence exists in severe gusts occurring.

...Florida Peninsula...
Even though shear will remain weak, occasional gusty winds may occur
with the stronger thunderstorms that develop this afternoon across
parts of the FL Peninsula as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen
with daytime heating.

..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/14/2026


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SPC Jul 14, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large hail are
expected today across parts of northern New York and northern New
England. Additional storms with isolated severe gusts and hail will
be possible in parts of the northern Rockies and northern High
Plains.

...Northeast...
At mid-levels today, a fast-moving shortwave trough and an
associated jet streak will move southeastward across southeastern
Canada. At the surface, very moist air with surface dewpoints in the
70s F will be in place over much of the Northeast. As surface
temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over much of
the region. By afternoon, an axis of low-level convergence is
forecast to develop along a pre-frontal trough, from near Lake
Ontario northeastward into far southern Quebec. This zone will be a
focus for convective initiation this afternoon. During the mid to
late afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form near the surface
trough and move southeastward into northern New York and northern
New England.

As the mid-level jet approaches from the northwest, the entrance
region of jet will enhance lift and deep-layer shear across much of
the Northeast. By late this afternoon, RAP forecast soundings over
northern New England have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with MLCAPE
peaking in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range. The environment will support
a mixed mode with supercells and organized line segments possible.
0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to peak near 7 C/km, which will
support a threat for severe wind gusts, especially with intense line
segments. A few severe gusts above 70 mph may occur. The potential
for large hail and tornadoes will be most likely with supercells.
The threat for supercells will be greatest from northern New York
into northern Vermont and northwest Maine, where mid-level lapse
rates are forecast to be near 7 C/km. Within this corridor, 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity is forecast to be in the 250 to 300 m2/s2
range, suggesting potential for a strong tornado.

...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains...
At mid-levels today, flow will be southwesterly across the
northwestern U.S. At the surface, upslope flow will be in place from
the northern High Plains to the Rockies. Surface dewpoints will be
in the 60s F along an east-to-west moist axis, which is forecast
across eastern and central Montana. As surface temperatures warm, a
pocket of instability will develop near the moist axis. Thunderstorm
formation will be possible along this east-to-west zone and in the
higher terrain of western and central Montana. By late afternoon,
RAP forecast soundings in central Montana have MLCAPE around 2000
J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 35 knots. In addition, mid-level lapse
rates are forecast to be steep in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This will
support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts and hail.

..Broyles/Halbert.. 07/14/2026


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