SPC Dec 8, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Within broad upper troughing over the eastern CONUS, an embedded
shortwave trough will move across the southern Appalachians to
coastal VA/NC by this evening. A surface cold front will sag south
across the remainder of the FL Peninsula. In the wake of earlier
convection, daytime heating will be needed for the redevelopment of
thunderstorms along the front. Besides modest low-level convergence
with the front, large-scale ascent will remain weak across this
region. This, combined with persistently poor mid-level lapse rates,
should limit convective intensity. Still, a locally strong gust or
two may occur until the front moves into the FL Straits.

..Gleason/Jewell.. 12/08/2025


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SPC Dec 8, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-storm potential appears negligible today through tonight.

...South FL...
With a broad upper trough remaining anchored across the East, an
embedded shortwave impulse will progress across the southern
Appalachians to coastal VA/NC by evening. A surface cold front will
sag south across the remainder of the FL Peninsula. In the wake of
decaying morning convection, adequate boundary-layer heating will be
necessary for redevelopment of midday to afternoon storms along the
front. Large-scale ascent, outside of low-level convergence
attendant to the front, appears nebulous with the region
well-removed from influence of the VA/NC impulse. This combined with
persistently weak mid-level lapse rates should limit convective
vigor. But a locally strong gust or two might occur until the front
progresses into the FL Straits.

..Grams/Thornton.. 12/08/2025


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SPC Dec 8, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado and locally strong gusts remain possible, mainly
through late evening across the south-central portion of the Florida
Peninsula.

...South-central FL...
A convectively reinforced front has been sagging south across
central FL over the past couple hours. The bulk of convection has
weakened as it spread across the peninsula, with deeper/renewed
updrafts holding off the Gulf Coast, southwest of Tampa Bay to west
of Fort Myers. 23Z XMR and 00Z TBW soundings sampled less-than-moist
adiabatic lapse rates through much of the troposphere, which will
remain a limiting factor to intensification of convection over land.
But strong deep-layer shear (effective bulk values in excess of 50
kts) and moderate low-level hodograph enhancement will maintain a
low-probability tornado and strong wind gust threat through late
evening. This may be focused near the juncture of the eastern Gulf
convection with the undercutting boundary. With only minor
large-scale ascent, offshore convection should wane overnight and
severe potential across the peninsula should diminish. See MCD 2253
for additional short-term discussion.

..Grams.. 12/08/2025


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SPC Dec 7, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across
parts of the Florida Peninsula beginning late this afternoon through
the evening.

...Florida Peninsula...
Late morning radar/satellite composite shows a rain shield and
embedded convection along a west-east oriented, southward-sagging
front over the north-central Gulf. This rain activity is possibly
the result of a weak disturbance moving eastward across the northern
Gulf of America within the base of a larger-scale mean trough over
the central and eastern part of North America. This disturbance is
forecast to move into north FL late today and east of the FL/GA
coasts by mid-late evening.

Considerable cloudiness will likely persist near/north of I-4 and
combine with meager low to mid tropospheric lapse rates to thereby
limit destabilization. However, a seasonably moist airmass will
probably yield a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE prior to an increasing
prevalence of showers/thunderstorms moving east from the Gulf into
the west/northern portions of the Peninsula towards late this
afternoon and evening. Ample mid- to high-level flow will support
storm-scale rotation contingent on a sufficiently strong updraft or
two developing within this zone of convection. The risk for
localized strong/damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may
accompany the strongest storms, mainly during the 22-08 UTC period,
as this threat shifts from northwest to south across the Peninsula.

..Smith/Barnes.. 12/07/2025


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