SPC Dec 5, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Southeast
today.

...Southeast...

Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably over the
next 24hr as strong west-southwesterly flow will extend across the
Gulf States. Broad weak height falls are expected across much of the
central/eastern CONUS as the mean upper trough position should
remain centered over the MS Valley. Given this flow regime, surface
cold front over GA/AL/FL Panhandle is expected to advance slowly
into the northern FL Peninsula where it will encounter somewhat
higher moisture content. Even so, convection is expected to struggle
to develop ahead of the wind shift, so the primary concern for
lighting will be with post frontal elevated convection. Forecast
soundings do not exhibit appreciable instability across this region,
and the midlevel lapse rates are not particularly steep. At this
time it appears the risk of severe is too marginal to warrant severe
probabilities.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/05/2025


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SPC Dec 5, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are expected near/along the northern Gulf Coast
tonight.

...01z Update...

Low-amplitude short-wave trough is advancing east-northeast across
the lower MS Valley early this evening. A corridor of weak
convection is noted ahead of this feature from southeast LA into
southwest AL. The deepest, more robust updrafts over southeast LA
are generating a few flashes of lightning. Surface-based buoyancy is
not expected to materialize inland through sunrise, and any
thunderstorm activity near the Gulf Coast will be driven in large
part by warm advection, and should remain elevated. Midlevel
instability appears too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for
severe.

..Darrow.. 12/05/2025


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SPC Dec 4, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1018 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast in the U.S. today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
16 UTC surface observations along the Gulf Coast show a stalling
frontal boundary draped from the MS Delta region to just off the TX
Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along
and north of this boundary as modest isentropic ascent within the
925-850 mb layer continues ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave
currently over the central Plains. The combination of diabatic
cooling and building surface high pressure to the north of the
boundary should keep the frontal boundary, and any surface-based
buoyancy, offshore through much of the forecast period. While
elevated thunderstorms will likely continue across the central Gulf
Coast region through the day and into tonight, buoyancy profiles
will remain too limited to support robust convection. Sporadic
lightning strikes are noted across the Texarkana region, but latest
forecast soundings suggest that EL levels should remain near or
below -20 C, which limits confidence in lightning production beyond
the next couple of hours.

..Moore.. 12/04/2025


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SPC Dec 4, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast in the U.S. today or tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a southern-stream shortwave
trough moving through NM, preceded by a extensive fetch of
southwesterly flow aloft from the eastern Pacific across the
southern Plains and Lower/Mid MS Valley. More confluent,
single-stream, moderate to strong mid-level flow exists across the
eastern CONUS. The NM shortwave is forecast to progress
northeastward, loosing amplitude as it moves into the more confluent
flow from the Plains eastward. This shortwave will be displaced well
north of any notable low-level moisture.

Recent surface analysis places a low just off the southeast TX
Coast, with a warm front extending eastward from this low along the
LA coast before pivoting more southeastward into more of central
Gulf. Warm-air advection amid this frontal zone is contributing to a
broad precipitation shield, with a few deeper embedded updrafts
producing lightning, from the Lower MS Valley into southern MS/AL
and the FL Panhandle.

The surface low is forecast to progress eastward along the warm
front throughout the day, with the warm-air advection showers and
thunderstorms progressing eastward as well. The strongest updrafts
are expected to remain within the southern periphery of this
precipitation shield, largely over the coastal portions of LA, MS,
and AL where modest elevated buoyancy is anticipated. Surface-based
buoyancy, supported by mid/upper 60s dewpoints, may develop across
far southeast LA, with an associated threat for a few stronger, more
organized storms. However, localized and brief character of this
threat precludes the need for any severe probabilities. Isolated
thunderstorms could persist into the evening across southern LA as a
cold front moves through, but buoyancy will remain limited with no
severe thunderstorms expected.

..Mosier/Jewell.. 12/04/2025


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