SPC May 31, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 311630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are possible
this evening into tonight from eastern Kansas into western and
central Missouri.

...Eastern KS/MO late this afternoon through tonight...
A blocking pattern remains from the Northeast to the northern
Rockies, with a weak southern-stream undercut from the central
Plains to the mid MS Valley. The remnants of overnight convection
persist across MO with multiple outflow surges toward the southeast,
and this convection may persist through the afternoon with some
potential for isolated wind damage/large hail. Limited 12z
soundings show a warm elevated mixed layer is present farther
southwest at OUN, where surface temperatures will need to warm into
the mid 90s to largely remove convective inhibition. Gradual
modification of the outflow near the KS/OK border, on the northeast
edge of the warmest surface temperatures, could allow for isolated
thunderstorm development this evening. If storms do form, the
environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing
very large hail and a tornado or two. Otherwise, convection will
become probable this evening into tonight within the warm advection
zone from eastern KS into western MO, where a storm cluster or two
will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail into
tonight.

...Mid MO Valley this afternoon/evening...
Low-level ascent along a stalled baroclinic zone from eastern
NE/western IA across the central Dakotas, as well as an embedded
shortwave trough pivoting northeastward over SD, will likely support
scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening. Vertical shear
will be a little stronger to the south (NE/IA) where midlevel flow
will be more westerly, coincident with MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg
range. Wind profiles and buoyancy are expected to remain weaker
farther northwest in SD/ND, though forcing for ascent will be
stronger with the midlevel trough and an associated frontal surge
from the west.

...West TX this afternoon/evening...
High-based thunderstorm development is possible along the dryline
later this afternoon/evening as surface temperatures warm into the
mid-upper 90s. Vertical shear will be weak, but steep low-midlevel
lapse rates will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for
isolated severe outflow gusts, especially with any semi-persistent
storm clusters.

..Thompson/Weinman.. 05/31/2026


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SPC May 31, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0720 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FROM
EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are possible this evening from eastern Kansas
into western Missouri.

...KS/MO...
Moderately strong southwesterly flow aloft extends from the Four
Corners region into the Midwest today. Water vapor imagery suggests
several weak shortwave troughs embedded in the flow to aid in
large-scale ascent and the potential for thunderstorm development
later today. Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning over eastern
KS/western MO. These storms will reinforce a surface boundary
across southeast KS/southwest MO. The boundary will lift northward
this afternoon with the potential for isolated thunderstorms along
and south of it. Very warm and humid conditions will prevail across
southeast KS/southern MO with MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg, along
with steep low and mid-level lapse rates.

While these early storms will pose an isolated severe threat, more
organized convection is forecast to form by early evening over
eastern KS and track along the boundary into MO. Forecast soundings
suggest sufficient vertical shear to support supercells and bowing
structures capable of large hail and damaging winds, or even a
tornado. A small area of SLGT risk has been added to address this
scenario.

...Elsewhere...
Widely scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
hail will be possible this afternoon and early evening over parts of
AR, and southwest TX. Isolated occurrences of large hail are also
possible today from parts of the Dakotas into NE/IA.

..Hart/Kerr.. 05/31/2026


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SPC May 31, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe storms are possible across the
central U.S. on Sunday, from the Dakotas into the Ozarks, and across
southwest Texas.

...Synopsis...
A relatively weak upper trough will lift northward through the
central/northern Plains. To the south of this feature, mid-level
heights will modestly rise during the day. Weak surface lows are
expected within the northern Plains and Kansas. Rich moisture will
be present as far north as the Mid-Missouri Valley.

...Kansas/Missouri...
Convection is likely to be ongoing in parts of the Mid-Missouri
Valley during the morning. This activity is likely to leave an
outflow boundary within Missouri. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to low
70s F will promote strong to extreme MLCAPE values (3500-5000 J/kg).
Despite the trough generally lifting northward, a band of 30-40 kt
of mid-level flow will remain across the region. Storm development
along the surface trough/dryline is uncertain given the rising
mid-level heights. However, it is possible that a storm or two could
form along this boundary or where it intersects outflow from the
early day activity. Deep-layer shear would be sufficient for
supercell structures capable of large hail, severe winds, and
perhaps a tornado given the locally enhanced SRH along the outflow
boundary. The potential for very-large hail is less clear given weak
upper-level flow.

Model guidance also suggests a subtle shortwave, coupled with weak
low-level lift, could initiate convection in the vicinity of
northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri. With the very moist airmass
present, nocturnal cooling would be rather gradual. Should a strong
enough cold pool develop, this activity could develop
south/southeast along the outflow boundary where a reservoir of
strong buoyancy would exist. Damaging winds would be the main threat
with this potential MCS. With the timing of this development
expected to be after 03Z, it is not clear how intense storms will
be. Should confidence increase in either scenario, a categorical
Slight would be warranted.

...Oklahoma/Texas...
Strong heating to the west of a dryline will promote at least
isolated storms during the afternoon. Higher confidence in greater
storm coverage exists in Southwest Texas given the moist upslope
flow into the Davis Mountains. Coverage into Rolling Plains and
Oklahoma is less certain as mid-level heights will be slowly rising
during the day. Moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place
(2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep layer shear will be weak, however.
Severe wind gusts will be the main hazard, though isolated large
hail is possible in the areas of larger buoyancy.

...Nebraska into the Dakotas...
Forcing for ascent from the weak, negatively tilted upper trough
will be greater here than areas to the south. That said, shear will
not be overly strong. Daytime heating will support widely scattered
to scattered storms capable of locally damaging winds and perhaps
some hail.

..Wendt/Moore.. 05/31/2026


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SPC May 31, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 310100Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BLACK
HILLS INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential will continue this evening and parts
of the overnight, mainly within the central Plains.

...Synopsis...
An arcing zone of convection is ongoing across parts of Nebraska
into central Kansas. The strongest forcing for ascent will be
present in Nebraska as the shortwave trough pivots north through the
evening. This activity will still be capable of large hail, severe
winds, and a couple of tornadoes as the low-level jet modestly
strengthens into the evening. Additional storms will continue in
central Kansas. The 00Z observed TOP sounding showed steep mid-level
lapse rates, but some capping at low levels. While activity will
tend to become elevated into the evening, strong to severe/damaging
winds will remain possible farther east. Large hail potential will
be somewhat mitigated be less favorable storm modes. Within the
southern Plains, an isolated storm is possible on the dryline in the
next couple of hours, but confidence in this scenario is low as
forcing for ascent is weak and low-level stability will increase
with time.

..Wendt.. 05/31/2026


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