SPC Jun 30, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across the Dakotas,
Upper Midwest and Middle Missouri Valley, including damaging winds,
large hail and a few tornadoes.

...Northern Plains and Midwest...
Thunderstorm activity has initiated across eastern Nebraska near the
cold front this evening, with additional areas of towering cu noted
into northern Kansas. As the low-level jet strengthens and ascent
increases with the approaching wave, it is likely additional
thunderstorm development will occur into the evening. Guidance
suggests that a mix of supercells and multi-cell clusters will
emerge and spread east northeastward into far southeastern
SD/northwestern IA and western MN. Strong to extreme instability and
steep lapse rates downstream will likely support potential for
damaging wind, with some significant gusts 75+ mph possible. Large
to very large hail will also be possible where supercells can
maintain semi-discrete mode. An upgrade to Enhanced was made with
this update to account for this potential. See MCD#1386 for
additional information on the short term severe potential.

Further north across eastern North Dakota into western/central
Minnesota near the surface low/warm front interface, potential will
continue for supercells capable of all hazards including large hail,
damaging wind, and strong tornadoes. See MCD#1387 for more
information.

...Southwest Texas to the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles...
Thunderstorm activity continues across southwestern Texas into the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles near the dryline. Very warm temperatures
and dry mixed boundary layer conditions will continue to pose some
potential for damaging winds until sunset this evening.

...Georgia into northern Florida Peninsula...
A cluster of thunderstorms continues to move southwestward across
southern/central Georgia this evening. Ahead of this cluster, hot
and moderately unstable conditions will continue to pose potential
for water loaded downdrafts that my produce strong to severe winds.

..Thornton.. 06/30/2026


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SPC Jun 29, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Dakotas, Upper
Midwest and Middle Missouri Valley, including damaging winds, large
hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon through tonight.

...Dakotas/Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest...
Of short-term focus/concern, is a long-lived storm cluster across
north-central Minnesota that has begun to grow upscale again to the
north of a warm front. Damaging winds and large hail will be
prominent concerns this afternoon, and tornado potential may
increase particularly with southern flank development near the warm
front. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion
1379.

Later this afternoon, a very moist airmass will become very unstable
over parts of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest, including
recovery in the wake of the early day storm complex across
Minnesota. While lesser instability is expected north-northwestward
into North Dakota, more modest buoyancy and long hodographs will
support severe storms. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
forecast by afternoon/early evening as large-scale ascent associated
with the approaching upper wave overspreads the region. Ample
deep-layer shear coupled with the large buoyancy will favor
supercells. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and
severe wind gusts will be possible with this surface-based activity,
especially as storms grow upscale this evening and progress
into/across parts of Iowa/Minnesota.

...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas...
Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible near the dryline.
Moderate instability is expected within this region with generally
weak deep layer shear. Strong evaporatively cooled downdrafts will
be capable of severe wind gusts with the more intense cores.

...Southern Appalachians and parts of Georgia/Florida...
Strong to locally severe storms capable of downbursts will be
possible within a moist/unstable environment this afternoon, with
some degree of storm organization possible as aided by a modestly
stronger belt of northeasterly flow aloft.

..Guyer/Supinie.. 06/29/2026


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SPC Jun 29, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of an intense swath of severe wind
gusts are likely across northeast South Dakota into northwest
Minnesota through midday. Later today, severe thunderstorms are
possible from parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.
Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns, though a
couple of tornadoes may also occur.

...Dakotas/Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough
over the central Rockies. This upper disturbance will acquire a
negative tilt and move into the central Dakotas by early evening. A
surface low over the north-central Plains will develop northward
into eastern ND by 00z as a warm front advances northward across
much of MN.

Through midday, an intense supercell over northeast SD will continue
to move quickly northeastward through parts of the eastern Dakotas
this morning and into northwest MN. Recent CAM model guidance
(i.e., time-lagged HRRR) has been remarkably consistent in showing
the evolution of the SD thunderstorm complex into northern MN today.
Have upgraded to an Enhanced Risk downstream of this extremely
intense supercell evolving into a bow within a focused mesoscale
corridor. Please refer to MCD #1376 for short-term forecast
details.

Later this afternoon, a very moist airmass will become very unstable
over parts of the Upper Midwest. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are forecast by late afternoon as large-scale ascent
associated with the approaching upper wave overspreads the region.
Ample deep-layer shear coupled with the large buoyancy will favor
supercells. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and
severe gusts will be possible with this surface-based activity.
Towards the early evening, additional storms are likely to develop
farther east over MN with a hail/wind threat likely persisting
through the evening.

...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas...
Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible near the dryline.
Moderate instability is expected within this region with generally
weak deep layer shear. Strong evaporatively cooled downdrafts will
be capable of severe gusts with the more intense cores.

..Smith/Jewell.. 06/29/2026


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SPC Jun 29, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the northern Plains
into the Upper Midwest today. Large hail and severe winds are the
primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also occur.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will advance eastward from the northern Rockies
into the northern Plains today. At the surface, a low will move
northward out of Nebraska into the Dakotas, with a cold front/dry
line extending southward to a secondary low across the central
Plains. Thunderstorm activity is likely to be ongoing at the start
of the period near the northern surface low across portions of the
Dakotas. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected in the wake of
the morning convection near the warm front lifting across North
Dakota into Minnesota and near the cold front back into portions of
the Mid-Missouri Valley and central Plains.

...Dakotas/Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest...
Elevated supercell activity is likely to be ongoing at the start of
the period across portions of the Dakotas near the surface low and
nose of the low-level jet axis. The environment will be
characterized by moderate to strong instability and strong deep
layer shear. Guidance suggests that this will have the potential to
produce large to very large hail and damaging wind.

As the low develops, a warm front will extend into North
Dakota/Minnesota by the afternoon. Evolution of the morning activity
remains uncertain, but it appears that additional storms will
develop near the warm front and back near the low/cold front into
the afternoon. Near the warm front, filtered heating through broken
low to mid-level cloud cover will allow for moderate instability by
the afternoon. A plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates will
advect northward through the afternoon. The favorable thermodynamic
profiles and strong deep layer shear around 45-50 kts will support
potential for supercells. If these storms can become surface based,
they will be capable of all hazards.

Back west near the cold front/low, initial supercells are possible
by the afternoon. These will have potential primarily for large hail
and damaging wind. Boundary parallel deep-layer shear will likely
lead to clustering/upscale growth with time. Strong to extreme
instability is expected ahead of the cold front across portions of
the western Dakotas into the Midwest. As the low-level jet increases
into the evening, it is possible that a corridor of more favorable
damaging wind potential (including significant gusts 75+ mph) may
evolve. For now, confidence in convective evolution is low with a
few CAMs suppressing convection towards the evening along the front
amid the strong EML until later in the evening around 06z.

...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas...
Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible near the dryline in
Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas. Moderate instability is expected within this
region with generally weak deep layer shear. This will likely keep
more widespread severe potential low. However, a few stronger storms
may be capable of strong winds given deeply mixed profiles. For now,
this potential remains too isolated to include probabilities.

..Thornton/Chalmers.. 06/29/2026


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