SPC Aug 2, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS/ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms posing a risk for generally brief, weak tornadoes
across the southwestern Ohio vicinity probably will begin to
diminish within the next hour or two. Otherwise, locally strong to
severe gusts remain possible this evening in continuing thunderstorm
development across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and
parts of the southern Rockies into adjacent southern Great Plains.

...01Z Update...

...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys...
Focused low-level convergence and weak to modest clockwise-curved
low-level hodographs, near a surface low now centered to the
northwest of the Greater Cincinnati area, have contributed to
transient supercell structures within developing convection
downstream of an elongating mid-level low across the lower
Ohio/middle Mississippi Valley vicinity. Potential for brief/weak
tornadoes has probably been boosted by near-surface buoyancy
associated with a boundary layer characterized by high relative
humidity and surface dew points in the lower 70s, along at least a
narrow pre-frontal corridor near the southern Ohio/Indiana state
border area into north central Kentucky. However, with the loss of
daytime heating, near-surface stabilization probably will diminish
this threat by 02-03Z.

Otherwise, some intensification of pre-frontal thunderstorm
development still appears possible this evening, southward across
parts of middle and eastern Tennessee into northern Alabama.
Although lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates are rather modest to
weak, seasonably high moisture content is supporting sizable CAPE.
Aided by 20-30 kt deep-layer southwesterly mean flow overspreading
this environment, heavy precipitation loading and downward momentum
transfer could still contribute to potential for localized damaging
surface gusts.

...Southern Rockies and adjacent southern Great Plains...
Convection developing southward ahead of a weak perturbation within
light northerly flow, into a very warm and deeply mixed boundary
layer with 40-50 F surface temperature/dew point spreads, may
continue to pose a risk for strong to locally severe wind gusts into
mid/late evening across parts of southern New Mexico and adjacent
portions of western/southwestern Texas and southeastern Arizona.

..Kerr.. 08/02/2026


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SPC Aug 1, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat
are expected across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this
afternoon into evening. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be
possible in parts of New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and far West
Texas.

...20Z Update...
The MRGL Risk/5-percent wind probabilities were expanded westward
into parts of central MS, where a very warm and moist PBL (upper 70s
dewpoints) are contributing to moderate-strong surface-based
buoyancy. Any thunderstorm clusters that evolve along/ahead of the
approaching cold front will pose a risk of locally damaging wind
gusts later this afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, the forecast
remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made.

..Weinman.. 08/01/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026/

..OH and TN Valleys...
Recent satellite imagery shows a positively tilted shortwave trough
moving through the Mid MS Valley. Surface analysis shows an occluded
surface low over central IL beneath the shortwave. Expectation is
for this cyclone to drift slowly east-southeastward throughout the
day, with the surface low gradually filling. As this low fills, the
triple point low, currently near the IL/IN/KY border intersection,
will become more prominent through the afternoon before it too
occludes.

Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from eastern
IN/western OH through eastern TN into AL, along the eastern
periphery of an arcing warm conveyor. These showers and
thunderstorms should continue northeastward/eastward as the entire
system drifts east-southeastward, with some modest moisture
advection anticipated throughout the warm sector. This should allow
the warm sector to at least moderately destabilize, but persistent
cloudiness will limit heating, likely tempering the overall
buoyancy. Expectation is for more modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE
around 500 to 1000 J/kg) across IN and OH, with greater buoyancy
(i.e. MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg) farther south across central KY and
Middle TN. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead
of the cold front as it moves through this destabilized and buoyant
airmass.

Moderate mid-level flow throughout the base of the Mid MS Valley
shortwave trough will spread eastward across KY and TN, supporting
effective shear around 30 to 35 kt across KY. Reduced vertical shear
is expected farther north across the OH Valley (due to weaker
mid-level flow) and farther south across TN Valley (due to more
westerly low-level flow). Given these kinematic conditions, a
predominantly multicellular mode is favored, although a few
supercells appear possible from southeast IN/southwest OH through
central KY. Damaging wind gusts will be the most prominent hazard,
but a tornado or two is also possible, particularly within the
corridor from far southeast IN through far north-central KY and far
southwest OH. Here, some modestly increased low-level shear is
possible near the triple point low as it moves through.

...Eastern AZ through NM into west TX...
Moderate mid-level moisture will support afternoon thunderstorm
development across the higher terrain from western AZ through
central/northeast NM. Relatively strong northerly winds aloft will
aid storm organization/clustering as storms spread
south-southeastward into the deeply mixed boundary-layer across the
lower elevations. Outflow-dominant storm structures will result in
strong cold pools capable of isolated strong to severe wind gusts.
Resulting forward-propagating lines could reach as far
south/southeast as Far West TX by later this evening.


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SPC Aug 1, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat
are expected across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this
afternoon into evening. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be
possible in parts of the southern High Plains, New Mexico, and
southeast Arizona.

...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
A positive-tilt mid-level trough will drift east-southeastward from
the middle Mississippi Valley toward the lower Ohio Valley through
tonight. A surface low will similarly develop eastward across
Illinois/Indiana, with some uncertainty regarding the northward
effective extent of a narrow warm sector owing to cyclone occlusion
and residual early day convection and cloud cover.

The moist air mass should moderately destabilize across the
Tennessee Valley this afternoon ahead of the front, with more
modest/uncertain destabilization progressively northward into and
across Indiana/western Ohio. Scattered clusters of storms are
expected to develop initially across Indiana/Kentucky this
afternoon, and a bit later southward into Tennessee/Alabama.

The strongest effective shear, upwards of 35 kt, is generally
expected across Kentucky into Indiana/Ohio, although a
low-to-mid-tropospheric flow weakness will tend to persist.
Deep-layer winds will tend to be stronger overall across the
Tennessee Valley, but a near-surface westerly flow component will
reduce effective shear (20-25 kt). Damaging winds are the most
probable risk regionally as storms intensify this afternoon.
However, pending adequate destabilization, a tornado risk may exist
for a time near the surface low/triple point vicinity across Indiana
and northern/east-central Kentucky.

...Southern High Plains...
Moderate diurnal destabilization is expected coincident with a
reservoir of 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints regionally. This will
be beneath relatively strong northerly winds aloft, which will aid
storm organization/clustering to a degree as storms spread
south-southeastward later today, reaching parts of west Texas this
evening. MLCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg and deep-layer shear around
30 kt, combined with steep low-level lapse rates, will likely be
sufficient for isolated severe wind gusts.

...Southwest/central New Mexico and southeast Arizona...
Another round of thunderstorms are expected regionally beginning
around mid-afternoon, and increasing through late afternoon and
early evening. These storms will be influenced by a moist
environment/orographic lift, as well as a upper ridge-peripheral
belt of enhanced northerly winds, particularly across New Mexico.
Some of the storms may produce isolated severe-caliber wind gusts
through early evening.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 08/01/2026


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SPC Aug 1, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat
will be possible today across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the
southern High Plains, southern Rockies and from southeast Arizona
into southwest New Mexico.

...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
A positively-tilted mid-level trough will move southeastward across
the mid Mississippi Valley today, as an associated cold front
advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A
north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture will be in place ahead
of the front, where surface dewpoints will be in the 70s F. As
surface temperatures warm this morning across the moist sector,
moderate instability will develop. Low-level convergence ahead of
the front and large-scale ascent associated with the trough will
result in scattered to widespread convective development this
afternoon. Thunderstorm intensification is expected to first take
place in the Ohio Valley in the early afternoon, with additional
more discrete cells developing southward into the Tennessee Valley.
By mid to late afternoon, a broken line of thunderstorms is expected
to organize and move eastward toward the southern Appalachians.

Along the axis of instability, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the
1500 to 2500 J/kg range during the afternoon from eastern Tennessee
northward into far southeast Indiana. Near this axis, a low-level
speed max is forecast to develop with 850 mb winds speeds increasing
to around 30 knots. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to
increase to around 200 ms/s2. This should be enough for an isolated
tornado threat, mainly with supercells that remain discrete. The
tornado potential should be minimized in areas where too many storms
form. During the late afternoon, a transition to linear mode is
expected. Severe wind gusts will be possible with any line that can
become organized, with this potential persisting into the early
evening.

...Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies...
North-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today across
much of the south-central U.S. At the surface, an axis of low-level
moisture will be in place from west Texas northward into eastern New
Mexico, where surface dewpoints will be from the mid 50s to the mid
60s F. Along and near this axis, moderate instability is expected to
develop by afternoon. Warming surface temperatures in the higher
terrain will aid convective initiation, with storms forming and
moving south-southeastward into the lower elevation of eastern New
Mexico. The storms will eventually reach parts of west Texas during
the evening. MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear
around 30 knots, combined with 0-3 km lapse rates near 8 C/km, will
likely be sufficient for isolated severe wind gusts.

...Southeast Arizona/Southwest New Mexico...
An axis of low-level moisture and instability will be in place today
across far southeastern Arizona. Along and near this axis, MLCAPE is
forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, low to
mid-level lapse rates will be very steep as temperatures heat up
this afternoon. Storms that form within the stronger instability
could have potential for isolated severe wind gusts.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 08/01/2026


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