SPC Nov 6, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2026

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of the central/eastern Carolinas and coastal southern Mid-Atlantic.

...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to clear behind ongoing convection.
See previous discussion below for more information.

..Halbert-E.. 11/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0956 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026/

...Eastern NC...
An upper low over lower MI and an associated upper trough extending
southward through the OH/TN valleys will track eastward today,
providing large-scale forcing for ascent across much of the eastern
states. A cluster of thunderstorms that began several hours ago in
northern SC is progressing northeastward across central NC. Cloud
cover ahead of this activity is limiting daytime
heating/destabilization. However, dewpoints near 70F and cooling
aloft will likely lead to a narrow corridor of MUCAPE values of
around 1500 J/kg this afternoon. CAM guidance is in agreement that
there will be a period of vigorous convection over eastern NC in the
19-23z time period. Low-level winds are somewhat veered and not
particularly strong. However, stronger winds aloft and the
approaching upper trough may result in sufficient organization for a
few bowing structures capable damaging wind gusts and some hail. A
small SLGT risk has been added to address this focused risk area.

...Southeast AZ...
A strong thunderstorm or two may occur this afternoon over extreme
southeast AZ, in a steep lapse-rate and marginally unstable
environment. While hail will be possible in the strongest cores,
the threat appears too minimal for severe probabilities at this
time.


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SPC Nov 6, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS AND COASTAL SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of the central/eastern Carolinas and coastal southern Mid-Atlantic.

...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England...
An upper trough/low centered over the Great Lakes this morning will
advance eastward over the Atlantic Coast states through the period.
An associated 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet will likewise
translate eastward today across the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and New
England. A weak surface low analyzed over the southern Mid-Atlantic
will develop northeastward towards southern New England along a
front through the afternoon. A rather moist low-level airmass will
remain in place ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints generally
ranging in the mid to upper 60s.

12Z observed soundings from OKX/GSO show a nearly saturated boundary
layer and rather poor low/mid level lapse rates (around 5.5-6.5 C/km
in the 700-500 mb layer). Combined with widespread cloudiness
evident on recent visible satellite imagery, these modest lapse
rates will likely hinder the development of any more than weak
instability and limit overall convective intensity. Still, ongoing
convection this morning along/ahead of the front may pose some risk
for isolated damaging winds given 30-40 kt of southwesterly
deep-layer shear aiding updraft organization and potential for
clustering. The threat for strong/gusty winds may extend into parts
of southern New England, but latest RAP/HRRR forecast soundings
suggest little potential for surface-based instability to develop
across this region.

Somewhat better diurnal heating should occur with southward extent,
and greater instability (MLCAPE up to 1000-1250 J/kg) is forecast to
develop this afternoon across the central/eastern Carolinas and
southeast VA. A lobe of mid-level vorticity and associated forcing
for ascent embedded within the large-scale upper trough/low should
overspread this region and support additional thunderstorm
development by 16-18Z along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front.
A mix of loosely organized clusters and marginal supercell
structures should pose a risk for occasional damaging winds,
especially if low-level lapse rates can become steepened through
filtered daytime heating. While low-level flow and related shear are
not forecast to be overly strong, a brief tornado or two also
appears possible. This activity should weaken and/or move offshore
by early evening.

...Southeast Arizona...
Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany an upper trough
progressing southeastward across the Southwest today, and weak
instability should develop this afternoon over parts of southeast
AZ. Deep-layer shear appears marginal for organized updrafts, but
occasional small hail could occur with the strongest cores that
develop.

..Gleason/Marsh.. 11/06/2026


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SPC Nov 6, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the
eastern Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic Coast.

...Carolinas/Atlantic Coast...
An upper low over eastern Great Lakes at the start of the forecast
period is forecast merge with a shortwave trough moving from the mid
MS Valley across the central Appalachians. A belt of enhanced
deep-layer southwesterly flow will accompany the low across much of
the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a cold front and broad area of
low pressure will stretch from southern New England to eastern North
Carolina. The low and front should gradually strengthen as they and
the upper trough move offshore into early Saturday morning.

Early in the period ahead of the cold front, a band of scattered
showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from southern New
England to the Carolinas, associated with continued northward
advection of mid 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints. Enhanced flow
aloft will overspread the area through the morning generally
parallel to the advancing front. The strongest upper-level winds
will likely remain on the cool side of the boundary, but model
soundings show effective shear values increasing to 30-40 kt within
the warm sector by late morning.

Given the presence of the unseasonably humid air mass, diurnal
heating and destabilization will tend to be muted by residual cloud
cover, especially with northward extent. Still, cooling mid-level
temperatures and modest buoyancy (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg) should be
sufficient to maintain isolated stronger storms eastward through
midday. Some organization into linear clusters or short bowing
segments is possible which would support a risk for damaging gusts.
Adequate hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km could also support
a brief tornado before convection weakens and moves offshore later
in the afternoon/early evening.

...AZ...
A second upper trough will move from the southern Great Basin into
the Southwest today and tonight. Cold mid-level temperatures will
accompany the upper trough, steeping mid-level lapse rates and
allowing for weak elevated buoyancy to develop. However the limited
instability and vertical shear should preclude a severe risk outside
of sporadic hail with an isolated stronger storm.

..Lyons/Halbert-K.. 11/06/2026


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SPC Nov 6, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2026

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms remain unlikely tonight.

...Synopsis...
Evening water-vapor imagery shows broad troughing with several
embedded perturbations stretching from eastern Canada to the
southern Plains. Several of the more prominent shortwave troughs are
forecast to merge over the eastern Great Lakes and upper OH Valley
later this evening. This will help intensify a belt of strong
mid-level flow over the Appalachians and eastern Seaboard later this
evening.

At the surface, a cold front was observed from New England, along
the Appalachians to the Gulf Coast, with a second front moving
across the Plains. As these fronts move eastward this evening, they
should serve as the primary foci for shower and thunderstorms
through the overnight hours.

...Mid Atlantic to southern New England...
A moist surface air mass in place along and east of the front slowly
moving over the Appalachians. As the upper low approaches
thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase later tonight
especially from the Mid Atlantic region northward into southern New
England. Strong winds aloft will result in fast-moving storms, but
near-surface buoyancy is expected to remain fairly limited. As such,
the surface-based convective threat and the overall risk of damaging
winds is expected to remain low. Nevertheless, the strong flow
aloft, and scattered thunderstorms would not rule out an occasional
stronger wind gust overnight. This appears most likely across
DelMarVa into southern NY/NJ where the highest storm coverage is
expected through 6-12z.

..Lyons.. 11/06/2026


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