SPC Oct 9, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with Hurricane Isaias will have potential
to produce tornadoes from this afternoon into the overnight period
from the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest
Georgia.

...Florida Panhandle/Southeast Alabama/Southwest Georgia...
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Isaias to make landfall
near Pensacola early this evening. As the center of Isaias
approaches the Gulf Coast this afternoon, rainbands will spread
across the Florida Panhandle. Within these bands, thunderstorms will
develop and move inland. The airmass ahead of these bands is
forecast to be very moist and unstable. Surface dewpoints in the mid
to upper 70s will contribute to moderate instability, with MLCAPE
likely peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range along parts of the
coast. RAP forecast soundings in the Florida Panhandle to the east
of Isaias' center early this evening suggest that 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity will increase to around 200 m2/s2, which
will support rotating storms with potential to produce tornadoes.
The tornado threat is expected to persist into the overnight period
as the rainbands associated with Isaias move northward into southern
Alabama and southwest Georgia.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/09/2026


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SPC Oct 9, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Localized severe thunderstorms may occur across the west-central
part of the Florida Peninsula and across parts of Iowa tonight.

...Florida Peninsula...
Water vapor imagery currently shows a plume of mid-level moisture
associated with Hurricane Isaias from the central Gulf of America
northeastward across much of the Southeast. Thunderstorms associated
with Isaias will move inland across the Florida Peninsula this
evening into tonight. Over the southern half of Florida, the RAP
shows MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. The most favorable zone
for rotating storms will be along the northern edge of the stronger
instability near and to the southeast of Tampa Bay. RAP forecast
soundings in the area have veering winds with height in the lowest 3
km with enough low-level shear for an isolated tornado threat.

...Iowa...
At mid-levels, west-northwesterly flow is located over the central
and northern U.S. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be moving
through South Dakota. Lift will be maximized in the mid Missouri
Valley ahead of this feature, along the far eastern edge of a
central Plains low-level speed max. As low-level flow increases this
evening, elevated storms will continue to develop over western and
central Iowa. RAP forecast soundings in west-central Iowa show a
sharp temperature inversion at low-levels, with steep lapse rates
above 900 mb. The resulting MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 1500 to
2000 J/kg range. This combined with about 50 knots of effective
shear should be enough for an isolated hail threat.

..Broyles.. 10/09/2026


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SPC Oct 8, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Localized severe thunderstorms may occur across the central portion
of the Florida Peninsula and/or across Iowa tonight.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this
update. See the previous discussion below for details.

..Weinman.. 10/08/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026/

...Florida Peninsula...
Visible-satellite imagery shows a cloud shield generally near and
north of a residual frontal zone draped across the central portion
of the FL Peninsula. Filtered sunshine generally south of the I-4
corridor will contribute to weak destabilization in the presence of
a tropical airmass characterized by mid-upper 70s deg F surface
dewpoints. Model forecast soundings show moderate effective shear
(25-30 kt) and a veering wind profile through a deep layer. Given
the very moist boundary layer coupled with proximity to the frontal
zone and shear supporting potentially transient weak rotation, a
brief tornado or waterspout is possible.

...Iowa...
Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms are forecast
tonight in tandem with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing as warm
advection and isentropic ascent increase to the northeast of a
northeastward-advancing warm front. With effective shear in the
cloud-bearing layer expected to increase to 40+ kt, the possibility
exists for a few elevated supercells late this evening into the
overnight, with a few instances of marginally severe hail possible.


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SPC Oct 8, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND UPPER MIDWEST/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Localized severe thunderstorms may occur across the middle Florida
Peninsula today and/or across parts of the Upper Midwest and middle
Missouri Valley tonight.

...Florida Peninsula...
A semi-persistent general pattern continues with storms focusing
along a convectively reinforced front from the eastern Gulf across
the middle part of the Peninsula. While not a high-confidence
scenario, a few subtleties may imply a bit more near-shore supercell
and waterspout/brief tornado potential as compared to yesterday.

The latest WSR-88D VWP data from KTBW samples weak
lower-tropospheric winds but with moderate directional turning and a
speed increase above 3km AGL, netting around 25-30 kt effective
shear. This is consistent with a modest 00z-to-12z increase in winds
aloft noted in Tampa Bay observed soundings, with a mid-level
cooling trend also noted. Winds aloft may further trend a bit upward
this afternoon per various guidance, potentially supporting a few
organized/sustained storms capable of at least weak/transient
rotation, especially in vicinity of the surface front. It also
appears that clouds are not quite as prevalent early today within
the nearby warm sector inland, which could modestly boost parcel
accelerations within a very moist environment, characterized by
73-75F surface dewpoints. The overall scenario could seemingly
support some potential for near-shore waterspouts or possibly even a
brief tornado inland near the front.

...Iowa/middle Missouri Valley tonight...
Isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms should develop
tonight as warm advection and isentropic ascent increase to the
northeast of a northeastward-advancing warm front. Source region
moisture will be modest, but sufficient mid-level moistening will
support thunderstorm potential on the edge of the Great Plains
elevated mixed layer. While some elevated moisture/buoyancy guidance
depictions may be a bit too aggressive (such as the NAM), a general
increase in guidance trends lends credence to the possibility that
750-1250 J/kg MUCAPE may materialize. With effective shear in the
cloud-bearing layer expected to increase to 40+ kt, the possibility
exists for a few elevated supercells late this evening into the
overnight, with a few instances of hail possible.

..Guyer/Dean.. 10/08/2026


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