SPC May 23, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible today mainly across the Lower
Mississippi Valley and parts of West Texas. Other more isolated
severe storms are possible in portions of the Southeast, Ohio, and
the central High Plains.

...Lower Mississippi Valley...
An ongoing semi-well-organized cluster of storms appears to be aided
by an MCV, and will likely continue east-northeastward today across
the ArkLaMiss and broader parts of Mississippi, to the north of more
extensive weaker convection closer to the coast in southern
Louisiana. Ample heating ahead of the cluster and steepening
low-level lapse rates will support wind potential aside from a
modest MCV-related flow enhancement. A brief tornado could also
occur, although thunderstorm wind damage is most probable.

...West Texas/Southern High Plains...
Relatively weak mid-level flow and an ill-defined surface pattern
aptly characterize the severe-potential setup for later today into
the evening across this region. Residual low-level moisture and
steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference the 12 UTC Midland, TX raob;
8.7 deg C/km) in combination with strong heating will result in
moderate instability developing by mid-late afternoon, stronger with
southward extent across the Texas South Plains into southwest Texas.
At least widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from
near the Colorado/Panhandles border region southward into the
Edwards Plateau. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be
the primary severe hazards. A gradual clustering is expected during
the evening before this activity diminishes by late evening.

...Georgia/South Carolina...
A weak mid-level disturbance will move east-northeastward today.
Ahead of it, adequate heating of a moist boundary layer will yield
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by early afternoon and scattered
showers/thunderstorms are forecast. Deep-layer shear will support
some multicellular organization in the form of a few thunderstorm
clusters. The stronger water-loaded downdrafts will potentially
yield a localized wind-damage risk during the afternoon before this
threat wanes by early evening.

...Central High Plains...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon
within a belt of stronger cyclonic mid-level flow associated with a
north-central U.S. larger-scale mid-level trough. The 30-40 kt
500-mb flow and steepened surface to 400-mb lapse rates may support
a couple of locally stronger thunderstorms late this afternoon
through early evening. Locally severe hail/wind will be the threats
with these storms.

...Ohio...
A couple of rotating storms could develop regionally this afternoon
within a belt of residually strong low-level flow. A brief/low-end
tornado threat may exist.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 05/23/2026


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SPC May 23, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF COAST...GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today across the lower
Mississippi Valley and into parts of Texas. Other isolated severe
storms are possible in portions of the Southeast, Ohio, and the
central High Plains.

...Southern High Plains...
Weak mid-level flow and an ill-defined surface pattern aptly
characterize the severe-potential setup for later today into the
evening across this region. Residual low-level moisture and steep
700-500 mb lapse rates (reference the 12 UTC Midland, TX raob; 8.7
deg C/km) in combination with strong heating will result in moderate
instability developing by mid-late afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop from near the CO/OK-TX
Panhandles border region southward into the Edwards Plateau.
Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be the primary severe
hazards with the stronger storms. Some clustering is expected
during the evening before this activity diminishes by late evening.

...South-central and Southeast Texas/Southern Louisiana...
In the coastal areas of the western and central Gulf, very moist air
will be in place. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will
contribute to moderate instability by midday. Thunderstorms will
form along sea breeze boundaries during the early to mid afternoon.
A few severe wind gusts and a brief tornado will be possible.
Farther north over the Ark-La-Miss, some heating ahead of a
north-south band of showers/thunderstorms associated with an MCV
over OK, will contribute to a marginally supportive wind-damage
risk. Have expanded low-wind probabilities to account for
observational trends of a semi-organized band of storms continuing
east into the Ark-La-Miss during peak heating.

...Georgia/South Carolina...
A weak mid-level disturbance over MS/AL this morning will move
east-northeastward today. Adequate heating of a moist boundary
layer will yield 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by early afternoon and
scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast. Deep-layer shear will
support some multicellular organization in the form of a few
thunderstorm clusters. The stronger water-loaded downdrafts will
potentially yield a localized wind-damage risk during the afternoon
before this threat wanes by early evening.

...Central High Plains...
Latest model guidance shows isolated thunderstorms developing late
this afternoon within a belt of stronger cyclonic mid-level flow
associated with a north-central U.S. larger-scale mid-level trough.
The 30-40 kt 500-mb flow and steepened surface to 400-mb lapse rates
may support a couple of locally stronger thunderstorms to develop
towards early evening. Locally severe hail/wind will be the threat
with these storms.

...Ohio...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the Ohio Valley
and lower Great Lakes today. At the surface, an axis of low-level
moisture will be located from eastern Kentucky into central and
northern Ohio, where dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s F. As
instability increases during the day, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop and move northeastward across the instability
corridor. RAP forecast soundings in central Ohio at 21Z have 0-6 km
shear near 30 knots with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 150
m2/s2. This could be enough for an isolated tornado threat.

..Smith/Weinman.. 05/23/2026


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SPC May 23, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe gusts and a few brief
tornadoes are possible this evening in parts of the southern High
Plains. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible in the
Ark-La-Tex/lower Mississippi Valley

...Southern High Plains...
On water vapor imagery, a mid-level shortwave trough is evident over
the southern High Plains. At the surface, a dryline is located
across west Texas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are
in the 60s F and the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range.
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the western edge of
moderate instability from near Amarillo south-southeastward into the
low Rolling Plains. Ahead of the storms, forecast soundings in
northwest Texas have 35 to 40 knots of deep-layer shear with 700-500
mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This will support a potential for
isolated supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2
inches in diameter will be possible. In addition, the stronger
storms could be associated with a brief tornado threat. Severe wind
gusts will also be possible, and this threat could increase as the
storms continue to become more linear later this evening...see MCD
830.

Further south across the remainder of west Texas, storms will be
more widely spaced. Moderate instability and steep mid-level lapse
rates will support a potential for isolated supercells with
hail...see MCD 831.

...Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
The latest RAP has an axis of moderate to strong instability
analyzed from northeast Texas eastward across northern Louisiana,
where MLCAPE is in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. Along this corridor,
low-level lapse rates are steep. This thermodynamic environment will
support multicells with an isolated potential for severe wind gusts
early this evening.

..Broyles.. 05/23/2026


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SPC May 22, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe gusts are possible late
this afternoon into the evening in parts of the southern High
Plains. A few brief tornadoes are also possible across the Mid
South.

...20z Update...

Only minor adjustments have been made to the Marginal (level 1 of 5)
risk across southwest Kansas based on the current location of the
surface cold front. Scattered thunderstorms will increase across the
southern High Plains late this afternoon into this evening, posing a
risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail.

Across the TN Valley vicinity, sporadic rotating storms may persist
another couple of hours and a brief tornado is possible. However,
the 30-40 kt low-level jet will continue to shift northward with
time and away from the axis of stronger instability. Otherwise,
sporadic gusty winds are possible through evening. For more short
term details, reference MCDs 825 and 826.

..Leitman.. 05/22/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026/

...TX/OK...
A weak upper trough is moving across CO today, with the tail end of
large scale forcing spreading across the TX Panhandle. At the
surface, southeasterly winds will maintain a moist air mass into the
region, where a dryline will become the focus for afternoon
thunderstorm development. Weak mid-level winds of 20-30 knots
suggest that storms will be a mix of multicell and supercell
structures capable of large hail and damaging winds. Merging
outflows are expected as activity spreads eastward into western OK
and eventually north TX tonight, with a continued risk of locally
damaging winds.

...Northeast NE/KS/Northwest OK...
A cold front is sagging southeastward into KS/NE, where a moist and
moderately unstable air mass will be present this afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the front, with
a low-end risk of hail in the stronger cells.

...TN/MS/AL/GA...
A broad area of moderately strong southerly low-level winds are
present today over parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, along with
a very moist air mass with dewpoints in the 70s. Forecast soundings
show rather weak CAPE, but sufficient low-level shear for some
concern for tornadoes today. There have been occasional
mesocyclones in the thunderstorms in this region, and that will
likely continue through the afternoon as the low-level jet shifts
northward into northern AL/middle TN. Overall confidence in the
tornado threat suggests the threat remains Marginal, but a tactical
upgrade to portions of the area remains possible this afternoon.


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