SPC Nov 3, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID TO
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO EAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and
perhaps a brief tornado or two will be possible today from the
Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys northward into the Mid
Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
11 UTC surface analysis reveals a pair of cyclones over the northern
and central Plains. An attendant cold front is noted pushing
southeast across the Plains with a weaker front/surface trough
arcing from eastern KS southward into southern TX. Ahead of this
surface trough, modest moisture return continues with low to mid 60s
dewpoints spreading northward through the MS Valley. The southern
cyclone, analyzed over eastern KS, will continue to intensify as it
drifts northeast in tandem with a prominent upper wave, likely
reaching the upper MS Valley by late tonight. The primary synoptic
cold front is forecast to overtake the surface trough by
mid-afternoon across central MO, AR, and LA as the surface low lifts
to the northeast. Thunderstorm potential should increase as this
occurs, and a few strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible
given a favorable kinematic environment.

...Lower Mississippi Valley to Eastern Texas...
Thunderstorms ongoing this morning will continue to weaken through
mid-day with some degree of re-intensification and/or redevelopment
likely by mid to late afternoon owing to a combination of
strengthening forcing for ascent associated with the approaching
cold front and modest diurnal heating/destabilization. The degree of
re-intensification remains somewhat uncertain due extensive cloud
cover and warm mid-level temperatures sampled by regional 12z
soundings. Additionally, limited cooling aloft is expected as the
primary upper wave (an any attendant ascent-related cooling) lifts
to the north. Consequently, forecast guidance generally depicts
meager buoyancy profiles featuring 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE that will
favor anemic convection. Mean flow through the CAPE-bearing layer
should generally be aligned with the cold front, which will maintain
a predominantly linear/broken-band storm mode. Both of these factors
should modulate the overall potential for widespread intense
convection.

Nonetheless, strong (40-50 knot) deep-layer wind shear and veering
through the lowest kilometer will still promote some degree of
organization of the deeper, more intense cells and line segments,
and could support isolated severe gusts and perhaps brief tornadoes.
This potential appears greatest across eastern AR and into northern
LA on the northern fringe of a plume of higher low-level moisture
where the overlap of ascent, strong shear, and buoyancy will be
maximized.

...Mid MS Valley...
Very strong low-level shear will persist through this afternoon and
evening ahead of the deepening surface low across MO, IA, and IL.
Forecast soundings across this region depict 0-1 km SRH values on
the order of 250-300 m2/s2, and mid-level flow will likely exceed 50
knots as the upper jet shifts east/northeast. Despite a favorably
sheared environment, poor lapse rates and greater displacement from
richer low-level moisture will limit buoyancy profiles - especially
for parcels near the surface. This casts considerable uncertainty on
the propensity for strong/severe thunderstorms, though the strong
kinematics may compensate for the meager thermodynamics and could
support a localized and transient severe wind, and perhaps tornado,
threat.

..Moore/Mosier.. 11/03/2026


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SPC Nov 3, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and
perhaps a brief tornado or two will be possible today from the
Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys northward into the Mid
Mississippi Valley.

...Sabine River Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough will move across the Great Plains today, as
cyclonic south-southwesterly flow precedes the system over the lower
to mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the system, a north-to-south
corridor of low-level moisture will be in place along and ahead of a
pre-frontal trough. Near the moist axis, a long broken line of
thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the period from
western Missouri southward into western Arkansas and east Texas.
This line will progress eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi
Valley during the day. As it does so, surface temperatures will warm
ahead of the line allowing for weak destabilization. Any potential
for moderate instability will be minimized by abundant cloud cover.
Over the top of this airmass, moderate to strong deep-layer shear
will be present, which will support an isolated severe threat during
the afternoon and evening. Line segments that can become
semi-organized will have potential for isolated severe wind gusts.
In addition, a marginal tornado threat will be possible with any
QLCS structures. The severe threat will be minimized by poor lapse
rates. The threat could persist into the late evening or even into
the overnight period as the line moves eastward across the lower to
mid Mississippi Valley, toward a strengthening low-level jet.

..Broyles/Weinman.. 11/03/2026


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SPC Nov 3, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes are expected across parts of the southern and central
Plains this evening into tonight. Severe storms will also affect
western Missouri and northwest Arkansas overnight.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
On water vapor imagery, an upper-level trough is evident in the
southern High Plains with cyclonically curved southwest flow in
place over the southern and central Plains. Within this flow, a 60
to 80 knot mid-level jet is analyzed from southern New Mexico
extending northeastward into western Oklahoma. A line of strong to
severe storms is ongoing to the east of the mid-level jet in an area
with strong large-scale ascent from far southern Kansas into
southwest Oklahoma. Ahead of this line, surface dewpoints are mostly
in the lower to mid 60s F and the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500
J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Oklahoma City has 0-6 km
shear of 65 to 70 knots with some directional shear in the
low-levels, and backing in the mid-levels. The strong deep-layer
shear will continue to be favorable for severe storms this evening,
as a line segment gradually organizes and moves eastward across the
moist sector.

So far across Oklahoma, the dominant storm mode has been linear, and
discrete supercell development has failed to materialize. This will
likely continue to be a problem this evening concerning the
potential for a greater severe and tornado threat. Within the
ongoing line, tornado potential will be maximized with embedded
rotating elements. A few QLCS-type tornadoes still appear possible
as this line moves eastward across central/northern Oklahoma and
southeast Kansas this evening. A wind-damage threat will accompany
the line, and a few gusts above 70 mph will be possible, mainly with
the segments of the line that exhibit bowing structure...see MCD
2435 and 2437. The severe threat should impact western Missouri and
northwest Arkansas during the overnight period.

Further south into southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas, the cells
have been more discrete early this evening. A couple of supercells
are ongoing near the Red River. These storms are located along the
far southern edge of the low-level jet. As the low-level jet
continues to ramp up this evening, low-level shear will be favorable
for continued severe thunderstorm development. Severe wind gusts,
hail and potentially a few tornadoes will be possible...see MCD
2436.

...West-central and North-central Texas...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough in the
southern High Plains. The southeastern edge of the system is located
across west-central Teas, where a band of strong thunderstorms is
currently developing. These storms are located near a surface trough
along the northwestern edge of a moist airmass with surface
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F. Near the surface trough, the
RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, the VAD
wind profilers near San Angelo and Abilene have 40 to 50 knots of
west-southwesterly flow in the mid-levels, which should support
supercell development this evening. The primary threats are expected
to be severe wind gusts and hail.

..Broyles.. 11/03/2026


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SPC Nov 2, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes are expected across parts of the southern and central
Plains from this afternoon into tonight.

...20Z Update...
A potent shortwave trough evident in water vapor satellite imagery
is beginning to take on a neutral-to-negative tilt, as the trough
and its associated jet streak progresses eastward out of New Mexico
into the Texas Panhandle. In advance of this shortwave, deepening
cumulus and thunderstorm development in response to the approaching
wave are evident on visible satellite and radar imagery. As better
moisture is transported northward ahead of this development and a
narrow corridor of mixing further destabilizes the environment,
these (and subsequent) thunderstorms are expected to become severe.
Storms should initially favor a supercell mode before growing
upscale into linear convective complexes.

The Enhanced Risk for tornadoes was expanded south and west into
portions of Central Oklahoma to account for recent observational
trends and short-term forecast guidance, while hail probabilities
were expanded further north and east to account for ongoing elevated
convection capable of 1.00-1.50 inch hail. Greater uncertainty
exists in where the primary corridor of damaging wind potential will
materialize, but leading edge bowing segments will be capable of
65-80 MPH damaging wind gusts.

..Halbert-K.. 11/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026/

...Central/Southern Plains...
A large upper trough is present today over the western states, with
a strong shortwave trough rotating across the Four-Corners area. As
this features and its associated 80+ knot mid level jet begin to
eject into the southern Plains this afternoon, numerous
thunderstorms are expected to form from west-central TX northward
into parts of KS/NE. Widespread dewpoints in the low-mid 60s,
pockets of heating, and strong low-level winds across a broad area
will result in conditional risks of damaging winds, a few tornadoes,
and some hail. However, there are a few specific scenarios that
appear most likely to focus that risk.

...OK/KS early this afternoon...
Water vapor imagery shows a lead trough currently moving into
western OK. This feature is expected to aid in the development of
scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon, tracking into southern
KS. Wind fields are very strong in this area, and a few supercell
structures are expected. However, forecast soundings show poor
low-level thermodynamics with LFC heights around 700mb. This should
limit the severe risk.

...KS/OK/North TX this afternoon/evening...
The primary severe risk will be with storms forming along the
surface dryline over western OK and south-central KS by late
afternoon. These storms will also be in a favorable shear profile
for supercell structures, but cooling temperatures aloft will also
increase the risk of robust updrafts as storms track quickly
northeastward. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are the main
concerns. By early evening, the Pacific cold front will catch up to
the convective line, resulting in more linear structures and greater
wind potential.

...West-Central TX...
The aforementioned convective line will build southward into
west-central TX through the evening, with some risk of damaging
winds and a tornado or two. Low-level winds and large-scale
dynamics will be weaker with southward extent, lessening the overall
severe threat.


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