SPC Nov 22, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible across parts of
northern Mississippi and Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky. Small to
marginal hail or gusty winds may occur.

...Discussion...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will continue moving out of MO and
across the OH Valley tonight, with cooling aloft eventually
extending southward across the TN Valley. Midlevel winds of 50-70 kt
will be present within the speed max, from the OH River into TN,
resulting in elongated hodographs.

At the surface, low pressure will translate eastward along a
quasi-stationary boundary extending from southern MO/IL into central
KY, though this front will sink south late.

Minimal lift will exist along this boundary, but the ejecting
midlevel wave atop the warm sector with 60s F dewpoints may result
in isolated cells, some possibly reaching severe limits with
marginal hail over northern areas, and/or wind elsewhere. Winds
around 850 mb will be quite veered, with mostly straightline
hodographs, favoring cells.

00Z soundings confirm generally strong deep-layer shear but poor
lapse rates aloft and weak instability. However, areas of lift
overnight may still result in isolated strong storms within the
marginal area.

..Jewell.. 11/22/2025


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SPC Nov 21, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MS/AL/TN/KY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible today and tonight
across parts of Mississippi and Tennessee into western and northern
Alabama and possibly southern Kentucky.

...20Z Update...
The Marginal Risk was trimmed slightly in northern/central MS, where
a combination of relatively weaker large-scale forcing for ascent
and poor deep-layer lapse rates/modest buoyancy (see SHV 18Z
sounding) should limit the severe-risk compared to areas farther
north tonight. Elsewhere, widely scattered thunderstorms are
evolving along a southeastward-moving cold front in southeast TX.
PBL destabilization ahead of the front has yielded moderate
surface-based buoyancy (per CRP 18Z sounding). While several warm
layers aloft and modest deep-layer shear (around 30 kt of effective
shear) should limit updraft intensity, a strong storm or two capable
of producing gusty winds cannot be entirely ruled out into this
evening.

..Weinman.. 11/21/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025/

...MS/AL/TN/KY...
A strengthening of deep-layer flow will occur regionally in tandem
with the eastward progression of a low-amplitude shortwave trough
from the Lower Missouri Valley toward the Lower Ohio River Valley
tonight, with height falls remaining limited south of the Tennessee
Valley.

The more organized/sustained scattered thunderstorms this afternoon
will probably remain focused within the warm conveyor from
south-central Mississippi into Alabama. On the south-southwest
periphery of these storms, there will be a gradual northeastward
expansion of the effective warm sector while destabilization will
still remain weaker with eastward extent. Mid-level lapse rates are
weak, suggesting most updrafts will struggle to intensify. However,
strong deep-layer shear and moderately strong low-level shear/SRH,
particularly within the aforementioned corridor, could support a
couple of rotating storms capable of a tornado or damaging wind.

The primary surface cold front will move into this region tonight,
with another round of showers and thunderstorms expected to uptick
this evening across the Mid-South including western Tennessee and
northern Mississippi. Low-level winds are expected to veer by this
time, reducing low-level shear/SRH. Nevertheless, a low risk of a
tornado and/or gusty winds will exist.


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SPC Nov 21, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MS/AL/TN/KY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible today and tonight
across parts of Mississippi and Tennessee into western and northern
Alabama and possibly southern Kentucky.

...MS/AL/TN/KY...
A strengthening of deep-layer flow will occur regionally in tandem
with the eastward progression of a low-amplitude shortwave trough
from the Lower Missouri Valley toward the Lower Ohio River Valley
tonight, with height falls remaining limited south of the Tennessee
Valley.

The more organized/sustained scattered thunderstorms this afternoon
will probably remain focused within the warm conveyor from
south-central Mississippi into Alabama. On the south-southwest
periphery of these storms, there will be a gradual northeastward
expansion of the effective warm sector while destabilization will
still remain weaker with eastward extent. Mid-level lapse rates are
weak, suggesting most updrafts will struggle to intensify. However,
strong deep-layer shear and moderately strong low-level shear/SRH,
particularly within the aforementioned corridor, could support a
couple of rotating storms capable of a tornado or damaging wind.

The primary surface cold front will move into this region tonight,
with another round of showers and thunderstorms expected to uptick
this evening across the Mid-South including western Tennessee and
northern Mississippi. Low-level winds are expected to veer by this
time, reducing low-level shear/SRH. Nevertheless, a low risk of a
tornado and/or gusty winds will exist.

..Guyer/Kerr.. 11/21/2025


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SPC Nov 21, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA INTO TENNESSEE AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible later today into
tonight across parts of Mississippi and Tennessee into western and
northern Alabama.

...MS/AL/TN/KY...
Early morning water vapor imagery shows broad west-southwesterly
flow aloft extending from the southern Plains into the southeast
states. A southern-stream shortwave trough is noted over LA/AR,
which will traverse across the mid-South and TN Valley today.
Multiple areas of precipitation will be present along/ahead of this
feature, with forecast soundings showing weak-but-sufficient CAPE
for a few thunderstorm clusters. Mid-level lapse rates are weak,
suggesting most updrafts will struggle to intensify. However,
forecast hodographs show strong low-level shear today from eastern
MS across parts of AL/Middle TN and southeast KY. This could be
enough for one or two rotating cells capable of a tornado or
damaging wind event. The overall threat appears marginal at this
time.

The primary surface cold front will move into this region after dark
tonight, with another round of showers and thunderstorms ahead of
the front. Low-level winds are expected to somewhat veer by this
time, reducing low-level shear. Nevertheless, a low risk of a
tornado or two and/or gusty winds will continue.

...Southern CA...
An upper low is centered off the coast of southern CA today, with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms ongoing. This trend
will continue through the day, with some risk of a few robust
thunderstorms affecting coastal areas. Onshore instability and
low-level shear are expected to remain weak, suggesting organized
severe storms are unlikely.

..Hart/Broyles.. 11/21/2025


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