Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms producing damaging winds and large hail are likely
from Iowa into northeast Kansas. Isolated hail or damaging wind
gusts are possible over a large area from western Texas into
Wisconsin and western Illinois.
...Synopsis...
Moderate westerly winds aloft will exist across the northern tier of
states today, with several waves from the Pacific Northwest to the
Great Lakes. The feature of interest will move across the Dakotas
and toward the upper MS Valley late in the day, aiding storm
development and severity from NE into WI. To the south, a weak
shortwave trough will move out of NM and into TX, with mid and high
level flow enhancement along with modest cooling aloft.
At the surface, low pressure will develop from southwest KS into the
TX Panhandle, with a front extending into NE, southern MN, and into
northern WI. Increasing southerly winds during the afternoon and
evening will bring 60s F dewpoints northward toward these
boundaries, with scattered severe storms likely late in the day and
centered near Iowa.
Farther south, very steep lapse rates and a subtle upper trough
should again result in widely scattered high-based storms producing
severe gusts over the southern High Plains.
...IA into eastern NE and northeast KS...
Southerly winds and daytime heating will support moderate
instability this afternoon near a surface trough which will extend
from eastern NE into southern MN and northern WI. Dewpoints are
expected to reach into the lower 60s F, and perhaps approach 65 F
during the early evening. Meanwhile, midlevel temperatures will be
cool, resulting in steep lapse rates and robust CAPE profiles.
Storms are most likely to initiate during the late afternoon near
the IA/SD border, and extending northeastward into WI and perhaps
the central MI Upper Peninsula. Large hail will be possible with the
initial cells, supported by 60 kt deep-layer shear. Hail to 2.00"
diameter will be possible even into WI.
Farther south into IA, the deeper theta-e plume and increasing
low-level jet will enhance the severe wind risk, with an MCS
expected to develop and move east/southeast across the region.
Damaging winds with a few gusts over 70 mph are expected. Additional
clusters of severe storms are expected from southeast NE into
northeast KS as well, firmly within the low-level theta-e plume with
maximally deepened moist layer to 700 mb. Shear will not be as
strong, but the initial development is expected to be robust with
large hail and damaging wind gusts.
...Southwest KS into western Texas...
Strong heating will yield very deep mixed layers near and south of
the Panhandles surface low, while midlevel temperatures remain cool
enough to support instability despite very low dewpoints. Meanwhile,
the aforementioned shortwave trough will enhance lift late in the
day. The result will be scattered high-based thunderstorms, with
severe wind gusts expected. Isolated gusts over 70 mph may occur.
Cells that develop into southwest TX may contain marginal hail as
well, with elongated hodographs in the mid to upper levels.
..Jewell/Squitieri.. 05/15/2026
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