SPC Aug 3, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe weather appears generally low across much of the
U.S. through tonight.

...01Z Update...

...Southeastern Arizona...
Instability along the higher terrain of east central Arizona into
adjacent west central/southwest New Mexico has been sufficient to
support weak to modest thunderstorm development. Despite weak, but
favorably oriented, northeasterly steering flow, storms have been
unable to propagate away from the higher terrain due to minimal
destabilization in lower elevations. This is largely due to rather
modest boundary layer moisture, including surface dew points
lowering to around 50 F with continuing daytime heating and mixing.

...Northern Mid Atlantic...
Downstream of a consolidating mid-level impulse across the lower
Great Lakes region, destabilization remains sufficient to maintain
scattered thunderstorm development across parts of the Allegheny
Plateau/upper Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region. Aided by
high boundary-layer moisture content and momentum associated with
30+ kt southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, it appears that the risk
for localized damaging wind gusts could linger into the 03-05Z time
frame before diminishing.

As the mid-level perturbation and associated surface troughing
slowly shift eastward/northeastward, convection allowing output,
including HREF/REFS calibrated thunderstorm guidance, suggest that
intensifying thunderstorm development is possible late tonight in
the warm sector across parts of eastern Pennsylvania toward the
lower Hudson Valley. Based on forecast soundings, given the high
boundary-layer moisture content, it does not appear out of the
question that wind profiles could become marginally sufficient for
isolated transient supercell structures with a risk for damaging
wind gusts and/or perhaps a tornado.

...Eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota...
Strengthening forcing for ascent, aided by lower/mid-tropospheric
warm advection, probably will support increasing potential for
thunderstorm development by late tonight. Based on forecast
soundings this will be generally elevated/high-based in nature, but
potential instability and cloud-bearing shear might be sufficient to
support some risk for small to marginally severe hail.

..Kerr.. 08/03/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TTqXFS

SPC Aug 2, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST
AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to locally severe thunderstorm development is
expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the lower Great
Lakes and upper Ohio Valley into the middle and southern Atlantic
Piedmont. Damaging winds are the primary hazard, although a tornado
could occur.

...20Z Update...
Only minor changes were made with this update. The MRGL Risk was
expanded slightly eastward in portions of eastern SC, where an
ongoing cluster of thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk of
damaging wind gusts, given a very warm/moist downstream air mass.
Farther north, the MRGL Risk was expanded into parts of northern NJ
and northeast PA. Clouds breaks have supported modest
destabilization of a moist air mass, and high-resolution guidance
depicts thunderstorms moving into the area tonight -- focused along
a northward-moving warm front. Despite modest instability, enhanced
low-level flow/shear overspreading the region in tandem with the
warm front could support a couple loosely organized cells/clusters
with an accompanying risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track and no changes
were needed.

..Weinman.. 08/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sun Aug 02 2026/

...Eastern States...
Current satellite imagery shows a positively titled shortwave trough
extending from Lower MI southwestward into the Mid-South, while
recent surface analysis places a corridor of low pressure associated
with this shortwave from the Middle OH Valley into the Lower Great
Lakes. Several surface lows are embedded within this broader area of
low pressure, including a primary low over north-central OH/western
Lake Erie. A cold front extends southward from this low to the TN/NC
border vicinity before arcing back more southwestward through
central AL and southern MS.

This system (i.e. both the shortwave trough and associated cold
front) is forecast to gradually push eastward while weakening.
Airmass preceding this system is very moist, evidenced by upper
60s/low 70s dewpoints and PW values at or above 2 inches on the
regional 12Z soundings. Widespread cloud cover is in place, but
ample moisture has already resulted in airmass destabilization,
although the overall buoyancy will remain muted by poor lapse rates.
General expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to increase
substantially over the next few hours, fostered by a combination of
low-level confluence and modest large-scale ascent.

Low to mid-level flow throughout the eastern periphery of the
shortwave trough is generally expected to be modest, ranging from
around 40 kt across the Allegheny Plateau/upper Ohio Valley/lower
Great Lakes vicinity to 20 kt across GA and SC. Consequently, a few
more organized storms are possible across portions of the Allegheny
Plateau, upper Ohio Valley, and lower Great Lakes, while a largely
disorganized multicellular mode is anticipated elsewhere.
Water-loaded downbursts are the primary risk, although low-level
shear/SRH in the presence of a moist boundary layer suggests a brief
tornado is possible where greater storm organization is
expected.

...North Dakota/northwest Minnesota...
Expansive upper ridging exists from southern CA/western AZ through
the Plains and into Manitoba and Ontario. A strong shortwave trough
is forecast to progress through Canadian Prairie Provinces within
the northern periphery of this ridging. A cold front associated with
this wave is expected to push eastward across the Dakotas,
interacting with a moistening airmass across the region. A
conditional risk for severe thunderstorms exists this afternoon, but
most of the guidance keeps the airmass capped and free of deep
convection. Better potential for thunderstorm development is
expected overnight and into tomorrow morning as large-scale ascent
attendant to the approaching shortwave combines with warm-air
advection to foster elevated thunderstorm development. Isolated
instances of hail and a strong gust or two are possible with these
storms.

...Southeast Arizona/far southwest New Mexico...
Widely scattered thunderstorms should develop over the
mountains/higher terrain of the central/southern Arizona/New Mexico
border vicinity this afternoon. Moderate easterly/northeasterly
mid-level flow should favor southwestward motion into the lower
terrain of southeast Arizona. Modest buoyancy should allow for storm
persistence across southeast AZ, including the potential for
isolated strong to severe gusts.


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TTqQk2

SPC Aug 2, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST
AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to locally severe thunderstorm development is
expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the lower Great
Lakes and upper Ohio Valley into the middle and southern Atlantic
Piedmont. Damaging winds are the primary hazard, although a tornado
could occur.

...Eastern States...
The large-scale positive-tilt upper trough will continue to drift
eastward regionally, with the leading edge of height falls generally
parallel to the Appalachians. Ahead of a cold front, early day cloud
cover, precipitation, and otherwise generally weak
lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will be factors that tend to
limit overall boundary-layer destabilization.

Breaks in cloud cover into this afternoon will eventually allow for
widely scattered to scattered intensifying thunderstorm development
into mid/late afternoon. This may focus within a pre-cold frontal
corridor across the Allegheny Plateau/upper Ohio Valley into lower
Great Lakes vicinity, where it could be enhanced by 20-40 kt
south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer, and within
somewhat more modest flow off the higher terrain in vicinity of the
lee troughing across the Piedmont.

With at least modest CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, and potential for
heavy precipitation loading in the presence of seasonably high
moisture content, localized strong downbursts may generate a few
damaging surface gusts. A brief tornado threat may also exist across
parts of upper Ohio Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic given sufficient
low-level shear/SRH in the presence of a moist boundary layer.

...North Dakota/northwest Minnesota...
The extent and likelihood of sustained deep convective development
remain uncertain. Some guidance has suggested that there may be at
least attempts at deep convective development late this afternoon
near the weak pre-cold frontal surface troughing. However, the
potential for sustained thunderstorm activity remains unclear due to
limited low-level moisture beneath very warm and dry mid-levels,
associated with an elevated mixed-layer overspreading the region
today. A somewhat better potential for thunderstorm development may
await increasing forcing for ascent with the approach of the
upstream shortwave trough later tonight. In either case, some risk
for hail and severe winds will exist pending development across the
region.

...Southeast Arizona/far southwest New Mexico...
Residual cloud cover and widely scattered convection should clear
relatively early today, with renewed diurnal destabilization across
southeast Arizona and nearby southwest New Mexico. At least widely
scattered thunderstorms should develop over the mountains/higher
terrain of the Arizona/New Mexico border vicinity, with
southwestward storm persistence across southeast Arizona aided by
moderately strong northeasterly winds. A few instances of
severe-caliber wind gusts/blowing dust are possible this afternoon
through early evening.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 08/02/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TTqGdm

SPC Aug 2, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AD EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO
MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon
and evening across parts of the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio
Valley into the middle and southern Atlantic Piedmont. This may be
accompanied by some risk for severe weather, mainly in the form of
localized damaging wind gusts.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that one notable short wave perturbation within the
westerlies will progress east of the Canadian Rockies through much
of the Canadian Prairies by early Monday. As this occurs, it
appears that an associated surface cyclone will occlude over
northern portions of the Prairies during the day today, with one
trailing cold front advancing east of the northern U.S. Rockies
before stalling/weakening across the adjacent high plains, as
another more substantive cold front approaches the western through
central Canadian/U.S. border.

At the same time, a trailing mid-level short wave trough is forecast
to dig inland of the Pacific Northwest, then turn eastward across
the northern U.S. intermountain region into Rockies. As it does, it
appears that it will contribute to at least some suppression of
initially more prominent mid-level ridging centered over the
Southwest.

Downstream, larger-scale mid-level troughing is likely to be
maintained east of the Mississippi Valley through the Atlantic
Seaboard. However, the most prominent embedded short wave trough
already appears to be in the process of becoming increasingly
sheared across the lower Ohio Valley. This is forecast to continue
while shifting eastward toward the Appalachians today through
tonight, with perhaps one emerging perturbation consolidating with
another digging impulse across the lower Great Lakes vicinity later
today through tonight. This may be accompanied by a northeastward
migrating surface low, trailed by a weak cold frontal slowly
advancing into and across the Appalachians.

...Eastern U.S...
To the east of the larger-scale mid-level trough axis, early day
cloud cover, precipitation, and otherwise generally weak
lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will probably tend to at least
slow, if not inhibit, boundary-layer destabilization. However,
convection-allowing guidance suggests that breaks in cloud cover
will eventually allow for widely scattered to scattered intensifying
thunderstorm development by late this afternoon, if not earlier.

It appears that this may tend to focus within a pre-cold frontal
corridor across the Allegheny Plateau/upper Ohio Valley into lower
Great Lakes vicinity, where it could be enhanced by 20-40 kt
south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer, and within
somewhat more modest flow off the higher terrain into lee surface
troughing across the Piedmont. Given at least modest CAPE in excess
of 1000 J/kg, and potential for heavy precipitation loading in the
presence of seasonably high moisture content, localized strong
downbursts may generate a few damaging surface gusts.

Within the better shear across the Allegheny Plateau into lower
Great Lakes vicinity, the evolution of transient supercell
structures accompanied by some risk for a tornado does not appear
entirely out of the question, given forecast surface dew points
near/above 70F. However, this potential remains unclear, based on
varied model guidance.

...North Dakota...
Some model output suggests that there may be at least attempts at
deep convective development late this afternoon near the weak
pre-cold frontal surface troughing. However, the potential for
sustained thunderstorm activity remains more unclear due to limited
low-level moisture beneath very warm and dry mid-levels, associated
with an elevated mixed-layer overspreading the region during the
day. It appears that somewhat better potential for thunderstorm
development may await increasing forcing for ascent with the
approach of the upstream short wave trough by late tonight. Based
on forecast soundings this probably will be elevated or high-based
in nature, but perhaps accompanied by some risk for hail and/or
gusty winds.

..Kerr/Chalmers.. 08/02/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TTq4Pb