SPC Nov 7, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today and
tonight.

...Synopsis...
An upper cyclone and attendant trough will pivot east/northeast
across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states today. In the wake of
the trough, a surface low will deepen off the coast of New England.
A strong surface cold front will move offshore with the low into the
Atlantic and Gulf waters early this morning. Isolated elevated
thunderstorms may occur with warm air advection ahead of the upper
cyclone across New England, though severe storms are not expected.

Along southern portions of the front near the Gulf Coast, additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected across portions of
southern/central TX. An upper cyclone moving out of northern MX will
bolster isentropic ascent behind the southward moving front
supporting scattered elevated thunderstorms. Instability will remain
meager and not supportive of severe storms.

Elsewhere, surface high pressure and offshore flow will favor dry
and stable conditions over the majority of the CONUS. The only
exception may be across the Olympic Peninsula where shallow
convection ahead of another upper trough may allow for a few
lightning strikes overnight.

..Lyons/Halbert-K.. 11/07/2026


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SPC Nov 7, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2026

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery showed an upper low over the eastern Great Lakes
continuing to drift eastward this evening. Gradual amplification of
this system is expected through tonight as it moves toward the coast
and merges with a less pronounced shortwave trough crossing the
southern Appalachians and Southeast. At the surface, a cold front
has largely moved offshore, limiting the effective warm sector.
Still, very weak elevated buoyancy may remain in place this evening
over Cape Hatteras and portions of the New England coast. Isolated
lightning strikes remain possible for a few more hours. Severe
potential is negligible.

...AZ...
A second upper low over the Desert Southwest is supporting isolated
thunderstorms across parts of AZ and northern MX this evening. Cool
mid-level temperatures near the center of the low are aiding a
steep lapse-rate and marginally unstable environment. This may
continue through the first part of the overnight period before the
upper low shifts south of the international border and more stable
conditions develop. Weak buoyancy and vertical shear will preclude a
severe risk.

..Lyons.. 11/07/2026


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SPC Nov 6, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2026

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of the central/eastern Carolinas and coastal southern Mid-Atlantic.

...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to clear behind ongoing convection.
See previous discussion below for more information.

..Halbert-E.. 11/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0956 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026/

...Eastern NC...
An upper low over lower MI and an associated upper trough extending
southward through the OH/TN valleys will track eastward today,
providing large-scale forcing for ascent across much of the eastern
states. A cluster of thunderstorms that began several hours ago in
northern SC is progressing northeastward across central NC. Cloud
cover ahead of this activity is limiting daytime
heating/destabilization. However, dewpoints near 70F and cooling
aloft will likely lead to a narrow corridor of MUCAPE values of
around 1500 J/kg this afternoon. CAM guidance is in agreement that
there will be a period of vigorous convection over eastern NC in the
19-23z time period. Low-level winds are somewhat veered and not
particularly strong. However, stronger winds aloft and the
approaching upper trough may result in sufficient organization for a
few bowing structures capable damaging wind gusts and some hail. A
small SLGT risk has been added to address this focused risk area.

...Southeast AZ...
A strong thunderstorm or two may occur this afternoon over extreme
southeast AZ, in a steep lapse-rate and marginally unstable
environment. While hail will be possible in the strongest cores,
the threat appears too minimal for severe probabilities at this
time.


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SPC Nov 6, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS AND COASTAL SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of the central/eastern Carolinas and coastal southern Mid-Atlantic.

...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England...
An upper trough/low centered over the Great Lakes this morning will
advance eastward over the Atlantic Coast states through the period.
An associated 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet will likewise
translate eastward today across the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and New
England. A weak surface low analyzed over the southern Mid-Atlantic
will develop northeastward towards southern New England along a
front through the afternoon. A rather moist low-level airmass will
remain in place ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints generally
ranging in the mid to upper 60s.

12Z observed soundings from OKX/GSO show a nearly saturated boundary
layer and rather poor low/mid level lapse rates (around 5.5-6.5 C/km
in the 700-500 mb layer). Combined with widespread cloudiness
evident on recent visible satellite imagery, these modest lapse
rates will likely hinder the development of any more than weak
instability and limit overall convective intensity. Still, ongoing
convection this morning along/ahead of the front may pose some risk
for isolated damaging winds given 30-40 kt of southwesterly
deep-layer shear aiding updraft organization and potential for
clustering. The threat for strong/gusty winds may extend into parts
of southern New England, but latest RAP/HRRR forecast soundings
suggest little potential for surface-based instability to develop
across this region.

Somewhat better diurnal heating should occur with southward extent,
and greater instability (MLCAPE up to 1000-1250 J/kg) is forecast to
develop this afternoon across the central/eastern Carolinas and
southeast VA. A lobe of mid-level vorticity and associated forcing
for ascent embedded within the large-scale upper trough/low should
overspread this region and support additional thunderstorm
development by 16-18Z along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front.
A mix of loosely organized clusters and marginal supercell
structures should pose a risk for occasional damaging winds,
especially if low-level lapse rates can become steepened through
filtered daytime heating. While low-level flow and related shear are
not forecast to be overly strong, a brief tornado or two also
appears possible. This activity should weaken and/or move offshore
by early evening.

...Southeast Arizona...
Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany an upper trough
progressing southeastward across the Southwest today, and weak
instability should develop this afternoon over parts of southeast
AZ. Deep-layer shear appears marginal for organized updrafts, but
occasional small hail could occur with the strongest cores that
develop.

..Gleason/Marsh.. 11/06/2026


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