SPC Nov 9, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 PM CST Sun Nov 08 2026

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...South Texas...

An upper low over southwest Chihuahua, Mexico, this evening will
progress toward the TX Big Bend overnight. Modest midlevel height
falls preceding that feature will combine with persistent
low/midlevel warm advection and a moist environment with MUCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg (per the 00Z BRO and CRP soundings) to yield an
increase in thunderstorm coverage overnight. While no severe weather
is expected, a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds is
possible.

...Lower Great Lakes...

Ongoing showers over portions of southwest Ontario are indicative of
increased forcing for ascent associated with a vorticity maximum
moving through that region. So far, convection has remained too
shallow to support charge separation and lightning production.
However, as the forcing begins to overspread the lower Great Lakes,
sensible heat and moisture fluxes may be sufficient to yield deeper
convective updrafts capable of sporadic lightning over far western
NY and in the Tug Hill region.

..Mead.. 11/09/2026


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SPC Nov 8, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1014 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALONG THE
MIDDLE-LOWER TEXAS COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of south Texas. Isolated damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado
appear possible.

...Middle-lower TX coast today...
A midlevel low over northern Mexico will drift slowly eastward and
weaken through the period. At the surface, a baroclinic zone along
the middle-lower TX coast will provide a focus for thunderstorms
rooted at the surface, where boundary-layer dewpoints will remain
near 70 F. Per the 12z observed soundings/VWPs/model forecasts,
deep-layer vertical shear will remain sufficient for some embedded
rotating storms, with the relatively stronger low-level
shear/hodograph curvature expected along the north edge of the
surface-based buoyancy with a small MCV just south of CRP. Poor
midlevel lapse rates will temper the overall severe threat, though
an isolated, weak tornado and/or localized wind damage will be
possible with embedded circulations today.

Otherwise, elevated thunderstorms will remain possible from the
Edwards Plateau into interior south TX in a moist environment with
ascent and weak buoyancy atop the cooler near-surface air mass.

...Pacific Northwest and the lower Great Lakes...
The potential for isolated lightning flashes with low-topped
convection will diminish across northwest WA by about midday as a
midlevel trough moves inland and height rises ensue. A separate
midlevel trough will continue southeastward over the lower Great
Lakes by this evening into early tonight. Cooling midlevel
temperatures and weak buoyancy aided by the relatively warm lakes
will support convection that could become sufficiently deep to
support charge separation and isolated lightning flashes.

..Thompson/Barnes.. 11/08/2026


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SPC Nov 8, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A SMALL
PART OF SOUTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of south Texas. Isolated damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado
appear possible.

...South Texas...
Downstream of a mid/upper-level trough/low over northern Mexico,
thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of south TX. A
weak surface low/inverted trough is also analyzed across this
region, with greater low-level moisture (upper 60s to low 70s
surface dewpoints) present across the lower TX Coast. Weak
surface-based instability should develop this morning as filtered
daytime heating occurs, and strong to locally severe thunderstorms
may occur near the coast in the vicinity of Corpus Christi. Modest
enhancement to the low-level winds (southeasterly around 20-25 kt;
reference 12Z CRP observed sounding) and sufficient deep-layer shear
should exist for organized updrafts, including marginal supercell
structures (with one attempt already observed southwest of KCRP).
While low/mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, any sustained
surface-based supercell could produce isolated severe/damaging winds
and perhaps a brief tornado given effective SRH around 100 m2/s2.
Otherwise, elevated thunderstorms are forecast across a broader
portion of south-central TX, as large-scale ascent preceding the
upper trough/low overlaps with a weakly unstable airmass inland.

...Pacific Northwest...
Thunderstorm potential should continue to diminish this morning as
large-scale ascent associated with a strong mid/upper-level trough
moves inland across the Pacific Northwest and western Canada. But,
occasional lightning flashes may still occur with post-frontal
low-topped convection in the short term, as cold mid-level
temperatures support weak MUCAPE.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/08/2026


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SPC Nov 8, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CST Sat Nov 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms appear unlikely across the U.S. Sunday through Sunday
night.

...South Texas...

An upper low over Sonora, Mexico, late this evening is forecast to
move/develop toward the TX Big Bend with an attending belt of
enhanced mid/upper-level flow present over central and southern TX.
The 00Z Brownsville and Corpus Christi, TX, soundings sampled a
seasonably moist air mass (e.g., PW of 1.7") advancing inland ahead
of the upper-air system with boundary-layer dewpoints expected to
rise into the low to mid 70s across Deep South TX on Sunday. That
moisture will contribute to at least marginal instability, which,
coupled with persistent low/midlevel warm advection downstream from
the upper low, will foster multiple waves of thunderstorms during
the forecast period.

A vertically veering wind profile with up to 35-40 kt of deep-layer
shear is forecast across the region on Sunday, which would
conditionally support supercell storm modes and an associated severe
weather threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists in the
extent to which the air mass can destabilize due to the deleterious
effects of convective outflow and cloud cover arising from early-day
storms. As such, no severe weather probabilities will be included in
this forecast.

...Washington...

While the strongest forcing for ascent will shift away from the
region Sunday morning, steep lapse rates in the 0-3 km layer may
support a few sufficiently deep convective updrafts for lightning
generation into afternoon.

...Lower Great Lakes and Maine...

Isolated lightning occurrences appear possible over ME Sunday
morning in association with an upper low moving through the area.
Sporadic lightning activity may also occur in the lee of the lower
Great Lakes Sunday night within a zone of strong dynamic
ascent/midlevel cooling present on the cyclonic side of
mid/upper-level wind maxima progressing into the region. In both
areas, areal lightning coverage is expected to be less than 10%.

..Mead.. 11/08/2026


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