SPC May 14, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are expected from
Kansas into western Texas, with isolated overnight activity into
parts of the lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will slowly move across the Northeast and Mid
Atlantic today, with a surface high moving into the eastern CONUS
with offshore flow across the East Coast. Behind this system,
shortwave ridging aloft will move toward the MS Valley during the
day as a progressive shortwave trough affects the central and
northern Plains. This wave will bring rapid cooling aloft across the
Dakotas and into the upper MS Valley during the day, with subtle
height falls extending into the Central Plains.

While the primary surface low will be over Canada, a secondary low
is expected to form over western KS by late afternoon, with the
surface trough extending fully from the TX Panhandle northward into
Manitoba. Southerly winds across the Plains will aid the development
of a narrow moist axis from eastern TX into eastern KS and NE during
the day, with elevated moisture/warmth developing toward the mid MS
Valley overnight with a 40-50 kt low-level jet.

...KS...
An isolated supercell or two may develop during the late afternoon
just downstream of the low-level lapse rate plume and near the
narrow axis of 60s dewpoints near I-35. Surface convergence will not
be particularly strong, but forecast soundings indicate a narrow
zone of uncapped and unstable air mass. Steep lapse rates aloft,
veering winds with height, and 500 mb winds around 30 kt will
conditionally favor slow-moving supercells producing large hail. If
moisture quality verifies near the upper end of the guidance, hail
over 2.00" diameter may occur.

...Southern High Plains...
Strong heating will lead to deep inverted-v profiles across western
TX including the Panhandles. Relatively cool temperature aloft as
well as convergence within the surface trough will favor scattered
high based thunderstorms, with threat of dry microbursts over a
relatively large zone from the South Plains into southwest KS.

...Lower MS/Mid MS Valleys...
During the evening and overnight, lift associated with a 50+ kt
southwesterly low-level jet will bring elevated instability eastward
out of KS and into MO, southern IA an western IL as minimal height
falls occur. Forecast soundings indicate substantial elevated MUCAPE
with steep mid/upper lapse rates, thought shear in the cloud-bearing
layer will be marginal. This should support elevated storms over
much of northern MO, southern IA and western IL overnight with
activity spreading southeast. Isolated strong gusts cannot be ruled
out given the generally dry sub-cloud layer as storms amass.

..Jewell.. 05/14/2026


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SPC May 13, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts remain
possible from the Great Basin into northern Rockies this afternoon
and evening. Other areas of isolated severe wind/hail risk may occur
over the northern Appalachians and the Texas Panhandle.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track.
Thunder and severe probabilities were trimmed over the OH Valley to
account for the passage of a broken squall line. Thunder
probabilities were also trimmed over portions of eastern KS and
immediate surrounding areas, as confidence for organized elevated
convection along the easternmost edge of a low-level WAA regime
continues to decrease.

..Squitieri.. 05/13/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026/

...WV/PA/NY...
Recent surface analysis places a low over northern Lake
Huron/central Ontario, with a cold front extending back
southwestward through western OH and western KY. Current satellite
shows the associated shortwave trough extending from central Ontario
into the Mid MS Valley. This imagery also shows two embedded
vorticity maxima, one near the surface low over central Ontario and
the other farther southwest over IL/IN. This shortwave is expected
to mature throughout the day, trending towards a more neutral tilt
by this evening, while also gradually shifting eastward. The
associated cold front is forecast to shift quickly eastward as well.

At least scattered clouds will likely persist throughout the day,
somewhat tempering the overall daytime heating. Even so, modest
low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low/mid 50s) ahead of the
cold front will support a corridor of sufficient buoyancy for
thunderstorm development ahead of the front from western PA and WV
eastward across PA and into southern/central NY. Linear forcing
along the front and relatively modest deep-layer shear will favor a
multicellular line segment mode. Potential exists for a few deeper
updrafts capable of damaging gusts, but the limited heating ahead of
the front, modest buoyancy, and displacement south and east of the
stronger low to mid-level flow should keep the overall severe
potential isolated. A few isolated instances of hail are possible
early in the convective cycle before the more linear structures
dominate.

Recently issued MCD #0710 addresses this area as well.

...Great Basin into the northern Rockies...
Current satellite imagery shows a well-defined, negatively tilted
shortwave trough progressing across the Pacific Northwest. This wave
is forecast to continue eastward through ID and MT today. Strong
heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is expected ahead of this
wave from the Great Basin into the northern Rockies. At the same
time, mid-level moisture associated with the wave will advect
eastward/northeastward, resulting in large area of deep inverted-v
thermodynamic profiles that are also buoyant enough to support
convection and isolated lightning. Strong mid-level flow will
accompany the shortwave, with moderate mid-level flow extending
southward from the primary wave through UT and far western CO.

Scattered convection is expected as lift associated with the wave
begins to interact with this destabilizing airmass, likely starting
around 20/21Z from western MT into northern UT. This convection,
which should include lightning-producing updrafts, will then spread
eastward/northeastward with time. Strong to severe gusts are
possible across this entire region, with the highest likelihood for
severe gusts from central/southern ID into central MT where the
strongest mid-level flow is expected.

...TX Panhandle...
Deep boundary-layer mixing is anticipated across the TX Panhandle
today, with temperatures climbing into the 90s. Low-level moisture
advection should result in higher dewpoints across the eastern
Panhandle, with the resultant dryline acting as a focus for
convergence and attempts at convective initiation. The overall
environment does not look conducive for initiation and majority of
the CAMs do not show storm development. However, any storm that can
persist in this environment would conditionally pose a threat of
damaging wind gusts and large hail.


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SPC May 13, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MT
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN UT...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible
from the Great Basin into northern Rockies this afternoon and
evening. Other areas of isolated severe wind/hail risk may occur
over the upper Ohio Valley and the Texas Panhandle.

...WV/PA/NY...
Recent surface analysis places a low over northern Lake
Huron/central Ontario, with a cold front extending back
southwestward through western OH and western KY. Current satellite
shows the associated shortwave trough extending from central Ontario
into the Mid MS Valley. This imagery also shows two embedded
vorticity maxima, one near the surface low over central Ontario and
the other farther southwest over IL/IN. This shortwave is expected
to mature throughout the day, trending towards a more neutral tilt
by this evening, while also gradually shifting eastward. The
associated cold front is forecast to shift quickly eastward as well.

At least scattered clouds will likely persist throughout the day,
somewhat tempering the overall daytime heating. Even so, modest
low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low/mid 50s) ahead of the
cold front will support a corridor of sufficient buoyancy for
thunderstorm development ahead of the front from western PA and WV
eastward across PA and into southern/central NY. Linear forcing
along the front and relatively modest deep-layer shear will favor a
multicellular line segment mode. Potential exists for a few deeper
updrafts capable of damaging gusts, but the limited heating ahead of
the front, modest buoyancy, and displacement south and east of the
stronger low to mid-level flow should keep the overall severe
potential isolated. A few isolated instances of hail are possible
early in the convective cycle before the more linear structures
dominate.

Recently issued MCD #0710 addresses this area as well.

...Great Basin into the northern Rockies...
Current satellite imagery shows a well-defined, negatively tilted
shortwave trough progressing across the Pacific Northwest. This wave
is forecast to continue eastward through ID and MT today. Strong
heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is expected ahead of this
wave from the Great Basin into the northern Rockies. At the same
time, mid-level moisture associated with the wave will advect
eastward/northeastward, resulting in large area of deep inverted-v
thermodynamic profiles that are also buoyant enough to support
convection and isolated lightning. Strong mid-level flow will
accompany the shortwave, with moderate mid-level flow extending
southward from the primary wave through UT and far western CO.

Scattered convection is expected as lift associated with the wave
begins to interact with this destabilizing airmass, likely starting
around 20/21Z from western MT into northern UT. This convection,
which should include lightning-producing updrafts, will then spread
eastward/northeastward with time. Strong to severe gusts are
possible across this entire region, with the highest likelihood for
severe gusts from central/southern ID into central MT where the
strongest mid-level flow is expected.

...TX Panhandle...
Deep boundary-layer mixing is anticipated across the TX Panhandle
today, with temperatures climbing into the 90s. Low-level moisture
advection should result in higher dewpoints across the eastern
Panhandle, with the resultant dryline acting as a focus for
convergence and attempts at convective initiation. The overall
environment does not look conducive for initiation and majority of
the CAMs do not show storm development. However, any storm that can
persist in this environment would conditionally pose a threat of
damaging wind gusts and large hail.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 05/13/2026


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SPC May 13, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0714 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MT
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN UT...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible
across portions of the northern High Plains and Great Basin this
afternoon and evening. Other areas of isolated severe wind/hail
risk occur over the upper Ohio Valley and the Texas Panhandle.

...WV/PA/NY...
A large upper trough is deepening as it tracks southeastward across
the Great Lakes and Midwest into the Upper Ohio Valley. The
associated surface cold front is sweeping across OH, and will extend
from central NY into western PA and northern WV later today. Clouds
are currently prevalent across this region, but some
clearing/heating is expected as low-level moisture is transported
into the area. The result will be narrow corridor of sufficient
CAPE for thunderstorm development along the front from NY into WV.
Given the strength of the upper trough and winds aloft, there is
concern for a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and
perhaps hail...mainly in the 18-00z period.

...Great Basin...
A second strong and progressive upper trough has moved ashore over
OR/WA and will spread mid-level height falls and large scale ascent
across much of the Great Basin and Rockies today and tonight.
Low-level moisture is very sparse ahead of the system, but pockets
of strong heating from northern UT into eastern ID/western WY and
central MT will result in inverted-v profiles and sufficient CAPE
for isolated charge separation and robust updrafts. CAM solutions
suggest a risk of high-based fast-moving showers and occasional
thunderstorms affecting the region, with the risk of severe wind
gusts.

...TX Panhandle...
A surface dryline will become established over the TX panhandle
later today, where temperatures will climb well into the 90s.
Forecast soundings show only modest CAPE and limited risk of
convective initiation over this area. However, any storm that can
persist in this environment would conditionally pose a threat of
damaging wind gusts and large hail. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL
risk for this conditional risk.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/13/2026


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