SPC Oct 27, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST NM AND FAR WEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later today over a small
part of southeast New Mexico and far west Texas.

...Southeast NM/Far West TX...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning indicates broad cyclonic flow
over the western half of the Lower 48 states, with
west-southwesterly flow across the southern Rockies and adjacent
High Plains. A lee trough over the High Plains will yield favorable
low-level trajectories for maintaining moisture in Far West TX and
southeast NM. The 12 UTC Midland, TX observed sounding showed
moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7 deg C/km) with shear
primarily relegated in the 500 to 200 mb layer. As the boundary
layer heats and destabilizes through mid afternoon, moderate
buoyancy will likely develop and lead to isolated thunderstorms.
Forecast soundings imply a couple of supercells potentially capable
of large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) will be possible.

..Smith/Halbert.. 10/27/2026


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SPC Oct 27, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale trough will be maintained across the West on Tuesday
with ridging remaining across the East. Several embedded mid-level
shortwave troughs will be present within this western trough,
including across the central Plains.

High pressure across much of the CONUS will limit thunderstorm
activity. The only exception will be across the southern High Plains
where some lee troughing and moisture return will be present. A few
thunderstorms may develop within a region of relatively greater
instability (1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE) across southeast New Mexico
and Far West Texas. Shear will be relatively weak, but there could
be enough flow for some marginal supercell structures. Hail could be
possible with the strongest storms, but it should remain below
severe limits. Outside of this area any storm activity should remain
weak and unorganized.

..Bentley/Thornton.. 10/27/2026


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SPC Oct 27, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated strong thunderstorm across far west Texas may continue
for another hour or two before waning by late evening.

...Discussion...
A few stronger cells developed this evening in Far West Texas. These
storms may persist with some intensity for a few more hours, but
should weaken by late evening. No organized severe storms are
expected through the remainder of the overnight period.

..Bentley.. 10/27/2026


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SPC Oct 26, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
While a strong thunderstorm or two may occur this afternoon across
far west Texas into southeast New Mexico, organized severe
thunderstorm potential should remain fairly low.

...20z Update...
Isolated thunderstorm development is ongoing along the Sacramento
Mountains in southeastern New Mexico and the Davis Mountains in West
Texas. Modestly cool temperatures aloft overlying moist low-levels
and surface temperatures ranging from the mid-60s to low-70s F are
supporting around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. While this may allow for
the development of a more robust updraft or two, stronger mid/upper
level flow has shifted eastward (per regional VWPs and 18z observed
soundings from ABQ/EPZ/AMA) in conjunction with the primary
mid-level shortwave trough now noted over the Texas Panhandle, which
is limiting effective shear to generally 30 kts or less across the
region. Thus, the severe threat continues to appear too
limited/isolated to warrant the inclusion of severe probabilities
with this outlook update. See the discussion below for additional
details.

..Chalmers.. 10/26/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026/

...Far West Texas/Southeast New Mexico...
Widespread cloudiness remains over much of the southern High Plains
as of late morning, with the primary mid-level shortwave trough over
the central Rockies expected to move northeastward across the
central/northern Plains through tonight. Another weak, low-amplitude
shortwave trough will continue to advance northeastward over the
southern High Plains this afternoon. This feature should aid
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across this region in
the 20-22Z time frame. Modest heating of moist low levels coupled
with cool temperatures aloft should support around 500-1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE, with the greatest instability forecast across far west
TX/southeast NM where some clearing has occurred. However, mid-level
flow and related deep-layer shear should both remain fairly modest
(generally 20-25 kt or less). While a stronger thunderstorm or two
may develop this afternoon, the overall severe hail/wind threat
still appears too limited/isolated to justify including low severe
probabilities with this update.


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