SPC Nov 4, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 AM CST Tue Nov 04 2025

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few lightning flashes may accompany low-topped storms along the
California and Oregon coasts early Wednesday morning. Organized
severe storms are not expected.

...Discussion...
A shortwave trough will amplify southeastward over the Canadian
Prairies toward the upper Great Lakes tonight, while a more
prominent upper trough and related frontal band approach the Pacific
Northwest/northern California coasts late tonight and early
Wednesday. A cool and/or stable low-level airmass will overspread
most of the U.S., limiting thunderstorm development. An exception
may be portions of the Oregon and northern California coasts. In
relation to the approaching upper trough, cooler temperatures aloft
will gradually overspread the coast, and scant buoyancy may be
sufficient to support a few lightning flashes with low-topped
thunderstorms near the coast early Wednesday.

..Guyer/Kerr.. 11/04/2025


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TP49pT

SPC Nov 4, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CST Mon Nov 03 2025

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are not expected tonight.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough and accompanying 110+ kt 500 mb jet
max will continue to rapidly progress over the Northeast through
tonight. Cooler temperatures above the boundary layer are
contributing to near 8 C/km low- to mid-level lapse rates, resulting
in marginal (but adequate) buoyancy to support low-topped
thunderstorm development (per the 00Z BUF observed sounding). This
sounding also shows 50+ kt west-northwesterly flow just above the
boundary layer, and strengthening further with height, resulting in
elongated hodographs. It is not out of the question that some of the
deeper convective cells may produce a few strong wind gusts over the
next couple of hours, before the boundary layer stabilizes.

..Squitieri.. 11/04/2025


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TP3ShX

SPC Nov 3, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CST Mon Nov 03 2025

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are not expected today.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this
update. Similar to previous forecast thinking (see below), a few
strong wind gusts could accompany post-frontal convection as it
spreads eastward across parts of western/central NY tonight -- aided
by strengthening deep-layer wind fields and steepening lapse rates.
Given that this activity will generally be evolving behind the
stronger DCVA preceding the midlevel shortwave trough, an
anticipated/favored cellular mode should keep any damaging-wind risk
isolated.

..Weinman.. 11/03/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Mon Nov 03 2025/

...Northeast States...
Recent satellite imagery shows shortwave trough over the
Mid-Atlantic, with another lower-amplitude shortwave trough over
Lower MI. Both of these waves are forecast to move eastward today,
with the Mid-Atlantic wave moving offshore and the Lower MI wave
progressing quickly across the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast.
Showers are anticipated along and ahead of the frontal band
associated with the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast shortwave, which is
expected to move quickly eastward across the region throughout the
day. Convection along and ahead of this frontal band will likely
remain too shallow for lightning production. However, mid-level
temperatures will continue to cool in the wake of the initial
frontal band, with moderate large-scale forcing for ascent
persisting as well. This combination should result in deeper
convective cores with a more cellular structure. Given the strong
low- to mid-level flow in place, a few stronger convectively
enhanced wind gusts are possible, particularly around 00-04Z from
the Mohawk Valley into the western Adirondacks.


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TP3Hgy

SPC Nov 3, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 AM CST Mon Nov 03 2025

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are not expected today.

...Northeast States...
Recent satellite imagery shows shortwave trough over the
Mid-Atlantic, with another lower-amplitude shortwave trough over
Lower MI. Both of these waves are forecast to move eastward today,
with the Mid-Atlantic wave moving offshore and the Lower MI wave
progressing quickly across the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast.
Showers are anticipated along and ahead of the frontal band
associated with the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast shortwave, which is
expected to move quickly eastward across the region throughout the
day. Convection along and ahead of this frontal band will likely
remain too shallow for lightning production. However, mid-level
temperatures will continue to cool in the wake of the initial
frontal band, with moderate large-scale forcing for ascent
persisting as well. This combination should result in deeper
convective cores with a more cellular structure. Given the strong
low- to mid-level flow in place, a few stronger convectively
enhanced wind gusts are possible, particularly around 00-04Z from
the Mohawk Valley into the western Adirondacks.

..Mosier/Thornton.. 11/03/2025


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TP301g