SPC Nov 14, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of southern California late
tonight into early Saturday morning, but organized severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Discussion...
Within prevalent split upper flow over western North America, a
southern-stream closed low off the coast of California will slowly
approach with the parent trough taking on a more neutral/slight
negative tilt over time. Showers/some thunderstorms will increase
toward the coast late tonight through early Saturday with the
approach of a frontal band. Instability is forecast to remain very
weak, with poor lapse rates aloft. Nevertheless, low-topped
convection may occasionally reach levels sufficient for charge
separation and lightning flashes as it approaches the coast and
moves onshore across parts of southern California late tonight and
early Saturday. Low-level winds are expected to remain modest, but
south-southwesterly flow will strengthen with height through
mid/upper levels. While strong/gusty winds may occur in the higher
terrain, the overall severe threat should be limited by minimal
instability and weak low-level shear.

..Guyer/Smith.. 11/14/2025


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SPC Nov 14, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of southern California late
tonight into early Saturday morning, but organized severe
thunderstorms are not forecast.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A positively tilted upper trough off the West Coast will evolve into
a closed low through the period as it moves slowly southward
along/near the coast of central/southern CA. An associated surface
low should develop towards the coastal southern CA late tonight into
early Saturday morning. Instability across this area is forecast to
remain very weak, with poor lapse rates aloft present. Even so,
low-topped convection may occasionally reach levels sufficient for
charge separation and lightning flashes as it moves onshore across
parts of southern CA late tonight. Low-level winds are expected to
remain modest, but south-southwesterly flow will strengthen with
height through mid/upper levels. While strong/gusty winds may occur
in the higher terrain, the overall severe threat should be hampered
by minimal instability and weak low-level shear.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 11/14/2025


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SPC Nov 14, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the majority
of the U.S. today. Isolated weak activity may affect parts of
southern California into Saturday morning.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A positive-tilt upper trough will be just off the West Coast Friday
morning, with an offshore upper low translating southward through
the period. A stronger disturbance is forecast to rotate around the
base of this trough into Saturday morning, with midlevel winds
increasing and becoming nearly southerly as cooling aloft
approaches.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen late in the period off the
coast of southern CA and toward the Channel Islands. Precipitation
will increase in coverage at that time, with a few lightning flashes
possible mainly offshore. Low-level wind fields and shear will be
modest, and SBCAPE should remain near zero through 12Z Saturday over
land. As such, overall thunderstorm activity should be minimal over
land.

Elsewhere, an upper ridge will temporarily exist from the southern
Plains into the Great Lakes before the base of a broadening upper
trough moves into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. High
pressure over the southeast combined with strongly veering low-level
winds should keep conditions stable over those areas through 12Z
Saturday.

..Jewell/Moore.. 11/14/2025


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SPC Nov 14, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Minimal thunderstorm chances remain possible this evening over parts
of central California. Severe weather is not forecast.

...Discussion...
Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms persist this
evening into parts of the Sierra, with activity affecting coastal
areas to the south as well. The 00Z sounding from VBG does show
minimal MUCAPE rooted around 850 mb, suggesting continued lightning
flash potential as the large, positive-tilt upper trough slowly
moves east. Instability is forecast to dwindle overnight, with a
corresponding decrease in elevated convection.

..Jewell.. 11/14/2025


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