SPC May 23, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe gusts and a few brief
tornadoes are possible this evening in parts of the southern High
Plains. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible in the
Ark-La-Tex/lower Mississippi Valley

...Southern High Plains...
On water vapor imagery, a mid-level shortwave trough is evident over
the southern High Plains. At the surface, a dryline is located
across west Texas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are
in the 60s F and the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range.
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the western edge of
moderate instability from near Amarillo south-southeastward into the
low Rolling Plains. Ahead of the storms, forecast soundings in
northwest Texas have 35 to 40 knots of deep-layer shear with 700-500
mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This will support a potential for
isolated supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2
inches in diameter will be possible. In addition, the stronger
storms could be associated with a brief tornado threat. Severe wind
gusts will also be possible, and this threat could increase as the
storms continue to become more linear later this evening...see MCD
830.

Further south across the remainder of west Texas, storms will be
more widely spaced. Moderate instability and steep mid-level lapse
rates will support a potential for isolated supercells with
hail...see MCD 831.

...Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
The latest RAP has an axis of moderate to strong instability
analyzed from northeast Texas eastward across northern Louisiana,
where MLCAPE is in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. Along this corridor,
low-level lapse rates are steep. This thermodynamic environment will
support multicells with an isolated potential for severe wind gusts
early this evening.

..Broyles.. 05/23/2026


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SPC May 22, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe gusts are possible late
this afternoon into the evening in parts of the southern High
Plains. A few brief tornadoes are also possible across the Mid
South.

...20z Update...

Only minor adjustments have been made to the Marginal (level 1 of 5)
risk across southwest Kansas based on the current location of the
surface cold front. Scattered thunderstorms will increase across the
southern High Plains late this afternoon into this evening, posing a
risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail.

Across the TN Valley vicinity, sporadic rotating storms may persist
another couple of hours and a brief tornado is possible. However,
the 30-40 kt low-level jet will continue to shift northward with
time and away from the axis of stronger instability. Otherwise,
sporadic gusty winds are possible through evening. For more short
term details, reference MCDs 825 and 826.

..Leitman.. 05/22/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026/

...TX/OK...
A weak upper trough is moving across CO today, with the tail end of
large scale forcing spreading across the TX Panhandle. At the
surface, southeasterly winds will maintain a moist air mass into the
region, where a dryline will become the focus for afternoon
thunderstorm development. Weak mid-level winds of 20-30 knots
suggest that storms will be a mix of multicell and supercell
structures capable of large hail and damaging winds. Merging
outflows are expected as activity spreads eastward into western OK
and eventually north TX tonight, with a continued risk of locally
damaging winds.

...Northeast NE/KS/Northwest OK...
A cold front is sagging southeastward into KS/NE, where a moist and
moderately unstable air mass will be present this afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the front, with
a low-end risk of hail in the stronger cells.

...TN/MS/AL/GA...
A broad area of moderately strong southerly low-level winds are
present today over parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, along with
a very moist air mass with dewpoints in the 70s. Forecast soundings
show rather weak CAPE, but sufficient low-level shear for some
concern for tornadoes today. There have been occasional
mesocyclones in the thunderstorms in this region, and that will
likely continue through the afternoon as the low-level jet shifts
northward into northern AL/middle TN. Overall confidence in the
tornado threat suggests the threat remains Marginal, but a tactical
upgrade to portions of the area remains possible this afternoon.


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SPC May 22, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large to very large hail and severe gusts are
possible late this afternoon into the evening in parts of the
southern High Plains.

...Southern High Plains...
Modest cyclonic mid-level flow will extend from the Interior West
through the base of the trough over the south-central U.S.
Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance migrating east across
the Permian Basin this morning. A seasonably moist airmass
maintained via southeasterly low-level flow will heat and become
moderately to strongly unstable by mid afternoon.

Model forecast soundings show relatively cool 500-mb temperatures
(near -14 deg C) with steep low- to mid-level lapse rates later this
afternoon. Strong heating will locally erode appreciable remaining
convective inhibition and widely scattered thunderstorms will likely
develop by late afternoon. Although westerly flow will likely
remain modest (20 kt from 600 to 200 mb), strongly veering flow will
result in 25-30 kt effective shear, supporting supercells initially.
Large to very large hail will be possible with the more intense
updrafts. Increasing storm coverage during the evening will tend to
promote some upscale growth into a linear cluster with severe gusts
becoming more prevalent. The risk for severe gusts (60-80 mph) may
focus during the 00-03 UTC period before a gradual waning in
coverage/intensity by late evening.

...Central Gulf Coast States/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
Water-vapor imagery shows a disturbance moving northeastward across
the ArkLaMiss this morning and moving towards western portions of
TN/KY and the lower OH Valley. Surface analysis indicates a moist
airmass featuring dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s over TN to
the lower 70s over the central Gulf Coast. Despite widespread cloud
cover, some thinning of the cloud shield is expected as temperatures
slowly warm through the early afternoon. Models generally show weak
buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and skinny CAPE profiles and
tempered lapse rates (reference the Nashville and Birmingham 12 UTC
raobs). However, models show some enhancement/strengthening of
925-500 mb flow moving northeastward across MS/AL into TN through
the mid-late afternoon. As a result, some enlargement of hodographs
will likely occur during the diurnal heating cycle and a few weak
supercell structures will probably develop. Yet, the ongoing
thunderstorm band over eastern MS may be ill timed as it moves
northeastward across western/northern AL through midday.
Nonetheless, an isolated risk for a tornado seems possible over much
of this general region. A risk for isolated damaging gusts may also
accompany some of the stronger thunderstorms before this activity
wanes by the early evening.

...Mid Missouri Valley...
An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level jet streak will
move northeastward today across the north-central U.S. At the
surface, an axis of low-level moisture will be in place from eastern
Kansas northward into eastern Nebraska. Ahead of the trough,
scattered thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon along and near
the moist axis. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will
contribute to weak instability with MLCAPE likely peaking in the 500
to 1000 J/kg range across eastern Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings
near Omaha suggest that 0-6 km shear will reach 35 knots as the
trough approaches this afternoon, which would support the
development of low-topped supercells capable of isolated severe wind
gusts and hail. The severe threat is expected to persist into the
early evening.

..Smith/Weinman.. 05/22/2026


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SPC May 22, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible
from late this afternoon into the evening in parts of the southern
High Plains. Isolated severe gusts and hail may occur in parts of
the mid Missouri Valley. A few severe gusts and a marginal tornado
threat will also be possible from the central Gulf Coast States into
the Tennessee and southern Ohio Valleys.

...Southern High Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the southern
High Plains today. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass
will be located across most of Texas and Oklahoma. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop late this afternoon on the moisture gradient
from the western Texas Panhandle southward into west Texas. These
storms will move eastward across the southern High Plains during the
late afternoon and evening.

The strongest instability is forecast to develop this afternoon over
the low Rolling Plains of northwest Texas, where model forecasts
have MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Late afternoon
forecast soundings in northwest Texas have 0-6 km shear around 30
knots with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will
support the development of supercells with large hail and severe
wind gusts. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be
possible with supercells that become dominant. The greatest severe
threat is expected to be in the evening as a broken line of storms
moves into the stronger instability from the eastern Texas Panhandle
southward into northwest Texas.

...Mid Missouri Valley...
An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level jet streak will
move northeastward today across the north-central U.S. At the
surface, an axis of low-level moisture will be in place from eastern
Kansas northward into eastern Nebraska. Ahead of the trough,
scattered thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon along and near
the moist axis. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will
contribute to weak instability with MLCAPE likely peaking in the 500
to 1000 J/kg range across eastern Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings
near Omaha suggest that 0-6 km shear will reach 35 knots as the
trough approaches this afternoon, which would support the
development of low-topped supercells capable of isolated severe wind
gusts and hail. The severe threat is expected to persist into the
early evening.

...Central Gulf Coast States/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
A negatively-tilted mid-level shortwave trough will move
northeastward today across the east-central U.S. Ahead of the
trough, low-level moisture advection will take place. By early
afternoon, surface dewpoints will be from the mid 60s to lower 70s F
from the central Gulf Coast states northward into the southern Ohio
Valley. Moderate instability is expected by afternoon across much of
the region with MLCAPE peaking between 1500 and 2500 J/kg. Locally
stronger instability is expected across central Mississippi,
east-central Kentucky, eastern Tennessee and northeast Georgia. As
surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms
will develop and move northeastward across the moist airmass.
Steepening low-level lapse rates will support a potential for
isolated severe wind gusts. In addition, hodographs across this
unstable airmass are forecast to be somewhat curved, which should
also support a marginal tornado threat.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 05/22/2026


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