SPC Jul 9, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern
Plains. Severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Ozarks, mid
Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Arizona.

...Central High Plains into the Central Plains...
A similar thermodynamic environment to yesterday is expected across
the central Rockies today, with scattered afternoon thunderstorm
development anticipated. The presence of a low-amplitude shortwave
trough could lead to greater storm coverage today versus yesterday.
Moist post-frontal easterlies will help offset mixing across much of
the region, keeping dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s across
east-central/northeast CO, with higher dewpoints farther east into
southern NE and western/central KS. Moderate westerly flow aloft
will support organized storm structures into this more buoyant
environment, with an attendant threat for strong to severe gusts
with the stronger bowing segments. There is some potential for a
contiguous line of storms from the NE Panhandle across eastern CO if
widespread cold pool amalgamation is realized. Uncertainty regarding
convective evolution precludes higher probabilities with this
outlook, but increased probabilities may be needed later if forecast
confidence increases.

...Northern Plains...
A somewhat separate convective regime is expected across the
northern Plains versus farther south. Here, strong heating of a
moist airmass beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support
robust buoyancy this afternoon, with MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg
anticipated. The better forcing for ascent will remain north of the
region and some convective inhibition may linger, but convergence
along a modest cold front and/or pre-frontal trough/low will likely
result in at least isolated thunderstorms. Strong buoyancy combined
with effective bulk shear around 30-35 kt should support a few
supercells. Large to isolated very large hail and strong downdrafts
are possible within the more organized storms.

...Lower MO Valley into the Lower OH Valley...
An MCS is currently tracking southeastward through central MO, with
occasionally strong gusts noted on its leading edge. Continued
eastward progression away from the low-level jet, coupled with the
decreasing strength of the jet, will likely lead to a weakening of
this MCS this morning. However, the moist airmass downstream will
diurnally destabilize, likely resulting in a reintensification of
the MCS and/or development of new storms along its leading edge.
Additional development is possible in the wake of this MCS, amid
low-level moisture convergence along a potential differential
heating boundary. Vertical shear will be weak, but moderate/strong
buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates will support strong cold
pools and the potential for damaging gusts.

...Mid-Atlantic...
A moist airmass will remain in place across the Mid-Atlantic today,
characterized by afternoon dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Airmass destabilization is expected by the early afternoon, with
moderate to strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE from 1500 to 2000 J/kg)
likely. A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over TN/KY is
forecast to progress northeastward, interacting with the moist and
unstable airmass to support thunderstorms. While the thermodynamic
characteristics of the airmass remain similar to the last few days,
increased large-scale ascent and slightly stronger mid-level flow
attendant to the shortwave will likely support greater storm
coverage and intensity. Moderate vertical shear will support a
predominantly outflow-dominant multicellular mode, with damaging
wind gusts as the primary risk, particularly in areas where few
clouds allow for more heating and steeper low-level lapse rates.

...Lower Great Lakes into northern New England...
Moderate westerly/southwesterly flow aloft at the base of a
shortwave trough moving across Ontario and Quebec will extend from
the Lower Great Lakes region through New England this afternoon. A
modest cold front associated with the shortwave will shift
eastward/southeastward into the region as well, interacting with the
warm, moist and unstable airmass in place to support scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon. Poor mid-level lapse rates will keep
buoyancy modest, but the moderate westerly/southwesterly flow aloft
could still support some stronger bowing segments capable of
damaging gusts.

...Southeast Arizona...
Mid-level moisture will support afternoon thunderstorm development
across the higher terrain of southeast AZ/southwest NM.
Southwestward storm motion associated with modest mid-level
easterly/northeasterly flow could take a few of these storms into
the hot and deeply mixed airmass across southeast AZ. Strong
downdrafts are possible with any stronger storms.

..Mosier/Thornton.. 07/09/2026


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SPC Jul 9, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern
Plains. Severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Ozarks, mid
Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Arizona.

...Central and Northern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the central and
northern Plains today. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable
airmass will be in place from the Dakotas southward into Nebraska,
where surface dewpoints will mostly be in the 60s F. As surface
temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop across much of
the region. Along and near the instability axis, MLCAPE is forecast
to increase into the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. As instability peaks
late this afternoon, low-level convergence will likely become
maximized along a surface trough from the western Dakotas southward
into eastern Colorado. This will aid convective initiation, with
several clusters developing and moving eastward across the central
and northern High Plains. In the vicinity of the instability axis,
moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rate will
support a threat for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail.
Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible
across parts of central and northern North Dakota where instability
and deep-layer shear will be favorable for supercells.

Further south into parts of western and central Kansas, an
east-to-west axis of low-level moisture will be in place. Some model
forecasts suggest that an organized line of storms will develop and
move eastward along this axis during the early to mid evening.
Severe wind gusts will be possible with this line of storms.

...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley...
A very moist airmass will be in place today from the Ozarks eastward
into the lower Ohio Valley, where surface dewpoints will be in the
mid to upper 70s F. In response to surface heating, moderate to
strong instability is expected to develop by afternoon across parts
of the mid Mississippi Valley. Some model solutions have an axis of
low-level convergence located from central Missouri eastward to
southern Indiana, suggesting that convective coverage could be
maximized along this corridor. The instability, along with steep low
to mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for severe wind gusts
with any line segment that can become organized.

...Mid-Atlantic...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the southern
Appalachians today and approach the Mid-Atlantic. Ahead of this
feature, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place with surface
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F. This will contribute to a
pocket of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms
that develop in the higher terrain of the central Appalachians will
move eastward into the Mid-Atlantic during the late afternoon and
early evening. Forecast deep-layer shear appears sufficient to
support a severe threat. The instability and steep low-level lapse
rates will contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts with the
stronger multicells.

...Southeast Arizona...
An axis of instability is forecast to develop today across southeast
Arizona. Near this axis, low-level convergence will become maximized
during the afternoon, which will result in isolated to scattered
convective initiation. Storms that form near the instability axis as
low-level lapse rates peak in the late afternoon could produce
isolated severe wind gusts.

..Broyles/Moore.. 07/09/2026


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SPC Jul 9, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
evening from parts of the central Plains into the mid Missouri and
upper Mississippi Valleys. Isolated severe gusts may also occur in
parts of the northern High Plains, in eastern North Carolina, and in
southeast Arizona.

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Upper Mississippi Valleys...
At mid-levels, a subtle shortwave trough is evident on water vapor
imagery over the central High Plains. Ahead of this feature, a moist
airmass is located from the central Plains into upper Mississippi
Valley, where surface dewpoints range from the 60s F west to the
lower to mid 70s F east. A front is located from southern Nebraska
east-northeastward into central and northeast Iowa, where low-level
convergence is maximized and scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms are ongoing. Ahead of the front, the RAP has an axis
of moderate instability with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3500 J/kg. The
instability, combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep low
to mid-level lapse rates, will support a threat for severe wind
gusts and hail. The threat will be concentrated along and just ahead
of the more intense short line segments.

Further west into the central High Plains, a surface trough is
located from western Kansas extending northwestward into southwest
Nebraska. Low-level convergence is maximized further west into
eastern Colorado and southeast Wyoming, where an outflow boundary is
located and a broken line segment is ongoing. Ahead of the storms,
winds are backed to the east and surface dewpoints are in the mid to
upper 50s F. This is contributing to moderate instability. In
addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Denver has 40 knots of 0-6 km shear,
suggesting that supercells and organized line segments will be
possible. The RAP also shows 0-3 km lapse rates exceeding 7.5 C/km.
This environment will support a potential for severe wind gusts this
evening. A swath of wind damage will be possible across eastern
Colorado, northwest Kansas and southern Nebraska, once a more
sustained cold pool becomes established.

...Northern High Plains/Intermountain West...
A mid-level shortwave ridge will move through the northern High
Plains this evening. Beneath the ridge, a pocket of moderate
instability is located across central and northeast Montana where
the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. To the southwest
of the instability max, thunderstorms are developing in the higher
terrain of central Montana. These storms will move eastward into the
stronger instability. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level
lapse rates will support an isolated threat for severe wind gusts.

...Eastern North Carolina...
A very moist airmass is located over eastern North Carolina, where
surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F, and the RAP has a
pocket of moderate instability (MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg).
Scattered thunderstorms have developed near this pocket of
instability. Low-level lapse rates will remain steep for a couple
more hours suggesting potential for isolated severe gusts.

...Southeast Arizona...
The latest RAP has an south-to-north axis of instability analyzed
across southeast Arizona. Near this axis, low-level convergence is
maximized and 0-3 km lapse rates are very steep. Thunderstorms that
develop near this axis of instability may produce a few severe wind
gusts early this evening.

..Broyles.. 07/09/2026


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SPC Jul 8, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHWEST KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains, and from
the Missouri Valley into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated
severe gusts may also occur from the northern Great Basin into the
northern High Plains, from North Carolina into southern Virginia,
and over southeast Arizona.

...WI/MN/IA...
A fast-moving shortwave trough is moving eastward across ND. As
this system approaches the western Great Lakes region this
afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form along a surface
boundary extending from southeast MN into central WI. A moist and
very unstable air mass will be present along the boundary, aiding in
the development of a few severe storms. Sufficient deep-layer shear
will promote supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and
hail. An isolated tornado or two is also possible. This activity
will build westward along the boundary into northern IA by early
evening. A cluster or two of this activity could congeal into
bowing structures with a continued severe wind risk this evening.

...High Plains...
The upper ridge over the Rockies has weakened today, resulting in
stronger westerly flow into parts of WY/CO/NE/KS. Scattered
high-based thunderstorms are expected to form by mid-afternoon over
the mountains and foothills of CO/southern WY and spread eastward
into the Plains. Moisture will be limited near the foothills, but
weak easterly surface winds will maintain 40s dewpoints in eastern
CO, leading to convective intensification. Most CAM solutions show
thunderstorms capable of locally severe wind gusts tracking eastward
through the evening into parts of southwest NE and western KS before
dissipating after midnight.

...Northern Great Basin/Northern Rockies...
Moderately strong westerly flow aloft, steep low-level lapse rates,
and ample mid-level moisture will result in conditions favorable for
scattered high-based thunderstorms over a relatively broad area this
afternoon and evening. Gusty/damaging winds will be possible with
the strongest storms.

...Southeast AZ...
Widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to form over
the higher terrain of southeast AZ and propagate south-southwestward
through the early evening. Inverted-v profiles will promote a risk
of gusty/damaging winds in a few of the storms.

..Hart/Chalmers.. 07/08/2026


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