Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MISSOURI...MISSISSIPPI...AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated risk for damaging gusts and possibly a tornado will
continue tonight from the Ozark Plateau eastward into the low/mid
Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys.
...20z Update...
The Slight Risk across eastern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas,
western Missouri, and western Arkansas was removed with this update.
The Marginal Risk was also trimmed behind ongoing convection. A
broken line of storms continues eastward from southern Missouri into
central Arkansas but has shown signs of weakening as it has outrun
the better moisture to the south. Hi-res guidance from the HRRR and
RRFS suggest redevelopment of stronger storms, and perhaps a
supercell or two, will be possible across central and northeastern
Arkansas later this afternoon.
There are a few breaks in the cloud cover across central/southern
Arkansas that could allow for pockets of heating by the afternoon,
but overall thermal profiles appear meager, though deep layer shear
will remain strong. This leads to some uncertainty in maintenance of
any supercells that do develop and as such, a Marginal was
maintained to support some isolated threat.
Another location of interest for the evening will be across portions
of Illinois, as mentioned in the previous outlook. Across
south-central Illinois some better overlap of weak surface-based
instability beneath the LLJ may occur later this evening. See
previous discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 01/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026/
...Ozark Plateau...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a potent, negatively
tilted shortwave trough and associated speed max/dry slot moving
northeast across the KS-OK border. A broad moist conveyor ahead of
the upper disturbance is contributing to a plume of 50s to lower 60s
dewpoints from AR into MO ahead of a northeastward-migrating cyclone
forecast to move from KS to northern Lower MI. A broken band of
severe thunderstorms this morning is moving rapidly northeast posing
primarily a severe-wind gust risk over western parts of the Ozark
Plateau through the midday hours. Weaker buoyancy farther east will
be partially offset by a strong northward flux of low-level moisture
as the airmass slowly destabilizes beneath an extensive cloud
canopy. It remains uncertain whether a focused and more
concentrated risk for severe will persist into the afternoon across
the Ozarks. Nonetheless, an established/mature convective band may
continue to yield wind-damage potential given the strong kinematics.
...Lower MO Valley into the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys...
Strengthening southerly low-level flow and the intensification of a
LLJ (60-70 kt) will favor a gradual moistening from south to north
across the region through the afternoon and into the evening.
Forecast soundings later today into this evening show enlarged
hodographs across portions of IL where meager buoyancy is eventually
forecast to develop. Considered a small Slight-Risk but uncertainty
in buoyancy magnitude and possible convective line-parallel shear
lowers confidence for perhaps a more focused wind hazard this
evening. However, have adjusted low-tornado probabilities farther
north into central IL to the southeast of the evolving cyclone where
weak surface-based buoyancy may develop.
...Mid-South/Lower MS Valley...
Much of the region will remain free of convection until after 04Z
when increasing low-level confluence may support isolated
thunderstorms. Buoyancy will be modest, but vertical shear will be
strong enough to support the potential for a few damaging gusts.
...Southern AZ...
A shortwave trough and associated jet streak are forecast to
progress across AZ today. Scant low-level moisture will be in place
ahead of this wave but cooling mid-level temperatures and modest
mid-level moisture could still support limited buoyancy and the
potential for isolated thunderstorms. Given the robust mid-level
flow associated with this system, a few stronger gusts are possible.
However, overall coverage is currently expected to remain below 5%.
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