Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into
northern/central Florida this morning into the early evening.
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will bring enhanced west-southwesterly flow
aloft across the southeast into the Gulf Coast Saturday. A cold
front extending across the northern Florida Peninsula into the Gulf
will shift south and east through the afternoon, as a focus of
severe thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm activity is expected
at the beginning of the period, some of which perhaps may be strong.
...Southern Georgia into central Florida...
Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing at the start of the
period early Saturday morning across the Gulf into the Florida
Panhandle and southern Georgia. A few stronger transient supercells
will be possible, mainly offshore south of the Florida coast where
better instability will overlap increasing upper-level flow.
Thunderstorm activity will increase in coverage inland and across
southern Georgia into the eastern Florida Panhandle and northern
Florida Peninsula through the morning into the afternoon. Moderately
unstable and strongly sheared profiles across the region will
support potential for damaging winds and large hail, especially with
embedded supercells. Given storm motions parallel to the southwest
to northeast oriented cold front, supercells will likely struggle to
remain discrete. As the low-level jet becomes displaced to the north
by late morning into the afternoon, mode may becoming increasingly
more clustered/linear. This may reduce the hail potential through
time.
Before the low-level jet shifts northward, risk for a tornado will
be possible across the northern peninsula near the front. There is a
narrow zone in north Florida where marginally stronger low-level
shear and boundary-layer destabilization may favorably align
mid/late morning for a higher tornado risk. Overall, confidence is
low in favorable overlap, with potential largely occurring outside
of peak daytime heating and with the low-level jet beginning to
shift northward. As mentioned, there is also concern about storm
motions and lack of more discrete supercells. This leads to too much
uncertainty in introducing higher tornado probabilities at this
time.
A Slight Risk was maintained across southern Georgia into the
eastern Florida Panhandle and northern/central Florida for the main
threats of damaging wind and large hail.
..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/02/2026
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