SPC Aug 25, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across the central/southern
Plains this afternoon and evening, and also possible across portions
of the upper Mississippi Valley. Severe wind gusts and large hail
are the primary hazards.

...Central/southern Plains...
The region will be influenced by a modest amplification of the
large-scale pattern with a resultant increase in northwesterly flow
aloft by late today into tonight, while a front progresses
southeastward across the central High Plains. The front, as it
intercepts a moist and moderate to strongly unstable boundary layer,
will influence increasing thunderstorm development by mid/late
afternoon, with an orographically influenced increase in
thunderstorms also occurring along the Raton Mesa/Front Range.

Influenced by the strengthening northwesterlies aloft, effective
shear across Nebraska and western Kansas will generally at least be
35-40 kt. On the eastern periphery of a stout elevated mixed layer,
this will support some initial supercells capable of large hail,
most probable across western/southern Nebraska into
northern/possibly western Kansas.

Influenced by the front and aggregating outflow, one or more
southeastward-moving clusters capable of wind damage will likely
evolve by evening across southern Nebraska and Kansas. While winds
aloft will not be as strong, a similar upscale-growing quasi-linear
trend will probably also occur with high-based storms from the Raton
Mesa vicinity into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, and perhaps nearby
Oklahoma, with severe-caliber wind gust potential spreading
east-southeastward through the evening.

...Eastern Minnesota/western Wisconsin/western upper Michigan...
A shortwave trough (and related mid/high-level speed max) will dig
southeastward over southern Manitoba toward northern Minnesota and
Lake Superior tonight. While residual early day convection and cloud
cover may curb destabilization for a time, and keep the warm sector
somewhat narrow, strong to severe thunderstorm development should
occur near the eastward-advancing front by around mid/late
afternoon. 60s F dewpoints will contribute to a zone of 2000+ J/kg
MLCAPE across the eastern half of Minnesota/far northwest Wisconsin
by peak heating. Some supercells will be possible aside from more
prevalent multicells/small clusters. Large hail and damaging winds
are expected to be the primary hazards, at least on a widely
scattered basis.

...Coastal Southeast/middle Gulf Coast...
A moist/unstable environment will be favorable for isolated
pulse-type severe thunderstorms capable of water-loaded downdrafts
and wind damage, particularly during mid/late afternoon through
around sunset. This currently appears most probable across coastal
South Carolina, southern Georgia and northern Florida, although some
strong thunderstorm wind potential might also exist across the
middle Gulf Coast such as southern Louisiana.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 08/25/2026


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SPC Aug 24, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...EASTERN IDAHO...CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND
COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind
gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of
the Upper Midwest as well as the central High Plains. Other severe
thunderstorms with mainly a damaging wind threat are possible across
the central Gulf Coast, eastern Idaho, and coastal Carolinas.

...20z Update...

...Northern Great Basin...
A targeted upgrade to a Level 2/Slight risk was introduced for
portions of eastern Idaho where the latest HRRR/RRFS runs and TLE
probabilities suggest a corridor of locally greater damaging/severe
wind gust coverage may materialize in association with developing
convection across southern Idaho given a favorable thermodynamic
environment. Similarly, the 5% wind probability and CIG1 areas have
also been expanded across adjacent areas of the northern Great Basin
given the potential for high-based, loosely-organized convective
clusters to produce isolated damaging/severe wind gusts. See MCD
2115 for additional short-term details.

Elsewhere, the forecast remains generally on track with only minor
adjustments made to the existing outlook. See the discussion below
and MCDs 2116 and 2117 for additional short-term details.

..Chalmers/Moore.. 08/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026/

...Central Gulf Coast...
Satellite/radar mosaic late this morning shows a cluster of storms
moving south along the MS River. Mostly clear skies will promote
additional heating to the south over the coastal plain, which will
further destabilize the airmass and lead to steepening 0-2 km lapse
rates (in excess of 8 deg C/km) as temperatures warm into the lower
90s deg F. Deep-layer northerly steering flow will favor southward
movement of the thunderstorm cluster and new updraft development on
the leading edge of the cold pool. As this convection likely
continues to develop and become surface-based through the mid
afternoon, there will be a corresponding increase in potential for
scattered wet microbursts (55-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage)
with the stronger cores. This activity will likely push south of
the coast by the early evening.

...Dakotas/Upper Midwest into the Central High Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough over Alberta/Saskatchewan will move
eastward across the Canadian prairie provinces through tonight, with
a belt of moderately strong flow aloft and multiple MCVs influencing
the northern Plains to Upper Midwest. Widely scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this afternoon into the
early evening within a moist/unstable airmass near an
eastward-moving front and weak surface wave across central/eastern
ND. Other convection may initiate and then move southeastward from
south-central Canada. Around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear will
support supercells initially with a large hail threat. The
development of east/southeastward-moving clusters should eventually
occur this evening, with scattered severe gusts possible.

Farther south and a bit more removed from the stronger cyclonic flow
aloft, additional high-based thunderstorms are expected to form by
late afternoon/early evening across the Black Hills/western NE in
the vicinity of the surface front. Strengthening and sufficient
veering of winds with height through the mid levels should support
initial supercells capable of large hail, prior to a clustering of
these southeastward-moving thunderstorms. The risk for scattered
severe gusts may linger through mid/late evening across the central
High Plains before increasing MLCIN encourages gradual weakening.

...Coastal Carolinas...
A larger-scale low/troughing centered over the St. Lawrence Valley
will maintain cyclonic mid to high-level flow over the region this
afternoon. The 12 UTC Charleston, SC and Newport, NC raobs showed a
very unstable airmass in place to the southeast of a cold front
draped over the Carolinas. Veering and strengthening flow with
height will support deep-layer shear (30-35 kt) favorable for storm
organization. The stronger storms will be capable of a
hail/wind-damage risk this afternoon. See MCD #2112 for short-term
details through early afternoon regarding severe potential.

...Northern Great Basin into the Central Rockies...
Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to
develop this afternoon across parts of the northern Great Basin into
the central Rockies amid steepening low-level lapse rates with a
very well-mixed boundary layer. Since this convection will develop
along the periphery of stronger flow aloft, modest organization is
possible even though low-level moisture and related instability
should remain weak. Occasional dry microbursts may occur, some of
which could pose an isolated threat for severe gusts.

...Maine...
Partly cloudy skies will promote some heating and resulting in
weak instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) by early to mid afternoon.
Forecast soundings show elongated hodographs due to a 100+ kt upper
speed max overhead. A few of the stronger thunderstorms may be
capable of a localized hail/wind risk for a few hours before this
marginal threat subsides by early evening.


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SPC Aug 24, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind
gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of
the Upper Midwest as well as the central High Plains. Other severe
thunderstorms with mainly a damaging wind threat are possible across
the central Gulf Coast and coastal Carolinas.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Satellite/radar mosaic late this morning shows a cluster of storms
moving south along the MS River. Mostly clear skies will promote
additional heating to the south over the coastal plain, which will
further destabilize the airmass and lead to steepening 0-2 km lapse
rates (in excess of 8 deg C/km) as temperatures warm into the lower
90s deg F. Deep-layer northerly steering flow will favor southward
movement of the thunderstorm cluster and new updraft development on
the leading edge of the cold pool. As this convection likely
continues to develop and become surface-based through the mid
afternoon, there will be a corresponding increase in potential for
scattered wet microbursts (55-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage)
with the stronger cores. This activity will likely push south of
the coast by the early evening.

...Dakotas/Upper Midwest into the Central High Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough over Alberta/Saskatchewan will move
eastward across the Canadian prairie provinces through tonight, with
a belt of moderately strong flow aloft and multiple MCVs influencing
the northern Plains to Upper Midwest. Widely scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this afternoon into the
early evening within a moist/unstable airmass near an
eastward-moving front and weak surface wave across central/eastern
ND. Other convection may initiate and then move southeastward from
south-central Canada. Around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear will
support supercells initially with a large hail threat. The
development of east/southeastward-moving clusters should eventually
occur this evening, with scattered severe gusts possible.

Farther south and a bit more removed from the stronger cyclonic flow
aloft, additional high-based thunderstorms are expected to form by
late afternoon/early evening across the Black Hills/western NE in
the vicinity of the surface front. Strengthening and sufficient
veering of winds with height through the mid levels should support
initial supercells capable of large hail, prior to a clustering of
these southeastward-moving thunderstorms. The risk for scattered
severe gusts may linger through mid/late evening across the central
High Plains before increasing MLCIN encourages gradual weakening.

...Coastal Carolinas...
A larger-scale low/troughing centered over the St. Lawrence Valley
will maintain cyclonic mid to high-level flow over the region this
afternoon. The 12 UTC Charleston, SC and Newport, NC raobs showed a
very unstable airmass in place to the southeast of a cold front
draped over the Carolinas. Veering and strengthening flow with
height will support deep-layer shear (30-35 kt) favorable for storm
organization. The stronger storms will be capable of a
hail/wind-damage risk this afternoon. See MCD #2112 for short-term
details through early afternoon regarding severe potential.

...Northern Great Basin into the Central Rockies...
Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to
develop this afternoon across parts of the northern Great Basin into
the central Rockies amid steepening low-level lapse rates with a
very well-mixed boundary layer. Since this convection will develop
along the periphery of stronger flow aloft, modest organization is
possible even though low-level moisture and related instability
should remain weak. Occasional dry microbursts may occur, some of
which could pose an isolated threat for severe gusts.

...Maine...
Partly cloudy skies will promote some heating and resulting in
weak instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) by early to mid afternoon.
Forecast soundings show elongated hodographs due to a 100+ kt upper
speed max overhead. A few of the stronger thunderstorms may be
capable of a localized hail/wind risk for a few hours before this
marginal threat subsides by early evening.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 08/24/2026


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SPC Aug 24, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds will be possible this afternoon and evening across the Dakotas
and northwest Minnesota as well as the central High Plains. Other
severe thunderstorms with mainly a damaging wind threat may focus
across the lower Mississippi Valley and coastal Carolinas.

...Dakotas/Upper Midwest into the Central High Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough over Alberta/Saskatchewan will move
eastward across the Canadian prairie provinces through tonight, with
a belt of moderately strong flow aloft and multiple MCVs influencing
the northern Plains to Upper Midwest. Residual/ongoing convection
this morning and lingering cloud cover will be complicating factors
for thunderstorm development and evolution later today.

Even so, widely scattered thunderstorms should develop by late
afternoon or early evening within a moist/unstable airmass near an
eastward-moving front and weak surface wave across central/eastern
ND. Other convection may initiate and then move southeastward from
south-central Canada. Around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear will
support supercells initially with a large hail threat. The
development of east/southeastward-moving clusters should eventually
occur this evening, with scattered severe/damaging winds possible.

Farther south and a bit more removed from the stronger cyclonic flow
aloft, additional high-based thunderstorms are expected to form by
late afternoon/early evening across the Black Hills/western NE in
the vicinity of the surface front. Strengthening and sufficient
veering of winds with height through mid levels should support
initial supercells capable of large hail, prior to a clustering of
these southeastward-moving thunderstorms. Scattered severe/damaging
winds may occur with this activity through mid/late evening across
the central High Plains before increasing MLCIN encourages gradual
weakening.

...Coastal Carolinas...
The Carolinas will be influenced by modestly enhanced cyclonic flow
aloft today, with a moist and moderately to strongly unstable
environment forecast along the coastal plain to the east of a
slow-moving front. This favorable instability and around 30-40 kt of
effective bulk shear should support initial supercells with some
hail risk this afternoon. However, scattered damaging winds will
probably become the primary concern as thunderstorms increase in
coverage. Severe potential should tend to wane by early evening as
convection moves offshore and/or weakens with the loss of daytime
heating.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast...
Widely scattered elevated convection has developed this morning from
southeast KS into AR in a low-level warm advection regime. This
convection will shift south-southeastward today, potentially
becoming surface based into the afternoon as diurnal heating
supports downstream destabilization of a rather moist low-level
airmass. Even though deep-layer shear will remain weak, an
upscale-growing/forward-propagating cluster may evolve during the
afternoon, with scattered damaging wind potential increasing across
the ArkLaMiss south-southeastward toward the central Gulf Coast.

...Northern Great Basin into the Central Rockies...
Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to
develop this afternoon across parts of the northern Great Basin into
the central Rockies amid steepening low-level lapse rates with a
very well-mixed boundary layer. Since this convection will develop
along the periphery of stronger flow aloft, modest organization is
possible even though low-level moisture and related instability
should remain weak. Occasional dry microbursts may occur, some of
which could pose an isolated threat for severe gusts.

...Maine...
Across northern ME, partially clearing skies this afternoon should
encourage surface temperatures to rise into the 70s, resulting in
weak instability (up to 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) given relatively poor
mid-level lapse rates. Even so, a southerly mid/upper-level jet will
overspread northern New England during the afternoon, resulting in
highly elongated hodographs and 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear.
Any thunderstorms that can develop and be sustained could become
organized multicells capable of producing isolated damaging gusts
and perhaps marginally severe hail.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 08/24/2026


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