SPC Jun 8, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A line of severe thunderstorms with wind gusts potentially above 75
mph is expected over the northern High Plains this evening, with
large to very large hail and an isolated tornado threat also
possible. A couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are also
possible in the Ozarks.

...Northern High Plains...
At mid-levels, an upper-level trough is moving eastward into the
northern Rockies. Further east, a lead shortwave trough is evident
on water vapor imagery over the northern High Plains. At the
surface, a 994 mb low is located in northwestern North Dakota with a
surface trough extending southward into northwestern South Dakota. A
cold front is in far western North Dakota. To the east of the front,
surface dewpoints are mostly in the upper 50s and lower 60s F, and
moderate instability is in place. Numerous thunderstorms have
recently developed to the west of the instability axis, and these
storms are expected to organize into an intense line segment over
the next couple of hours.

RAP forecast soundings in western North Dakota ahead of the storms
have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 55 knot range, with 850 to 500 mb
lapse rates between 7.5 and 8 C/km. In addition, surface
temperature-dewpoint spreads exceed 25 degrees F over much area.
This environment will be very favorable for severe wind gusts. The
greatest potential for severe gusts will be from far northwest South
Dakota northeastward into much of western and north-central North
Dakota. Along this corridor, a nearly continuous bowing line is
expected to organize. Severe wind gusts above 75 mph will be
possible with the more intense segments. In addition to the
wind-damage threat, large to very large hail will be possible over
the next couple hours with storms that obtain supercell structure. A
tornado or two could also occur.

...Ozarks...
A mid-level trough will move northeastward across the central U.S.
this evening. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass is
in place from the southern and central Plains eastward into the
lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Scattered strong thunderstorms are
ongoing along an axis of moderate instability over the Ozarks of
southern and central Missouri, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500
to 2000 J/kg range. Ahead of the mid-level trough, low-level flow is
forecast to become maximized in the Ozarks over the next couple of
hours. Forecast soundings near Springfield, Missouri by 03Z have 0-3
km storm-relative helicity around 180 m2/s2. This will support a
tornado threat. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible.

..Broyles.. 06/08/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TSwfvJ

SPC Jun 7, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
WESTERN OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with significant wind gusts,
large hail, and an isolated tornado threat are expected this
afternoon and evening across parts of the northern Plains. A couple
of tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are possible across the
Ozarks region.

...MT/WY/Dakotas...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a strong upper trough
over the northwestern CONUS and it is forecast to pivot eastward
through the northern High Plains through tonight. Surface
mesoanalysis placed a low near the MT/ND/SD border with a frontal
zone draped southwest to northeast from northeastern WY into far
western ND. Cyclogenesis and strong heating/moistening of the
boundary layer will favor storm development by mid afternoon in the
vicinity of the Big Horns. Relatively steep low-level lapse rates
on the immediate cool side of the frontal zone and moderate CAPE
values will support a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts once
storms begin to mature. A linear cluster is expected to evolve
during the late afternoon into potentially a bow echo during the
early evening with the severe-wind risk notably increasing and
becoming more widespread. Have increased the intensity highlight
from southeast MT into western portions of ND where it seems
increasingly probable a swath of intense gusts ---possibly a bow
echo--- is progged by a diverse array of different model cores/runs
this morning. This model signal appears reasonable given the
co-location of surface features, lapse rates, and upper-level
support. It is within this mesoscale corridor that localized peak
gusts may range 85-100 mph. Considered an upgrade to Moderate Risk
but will defer to the 20 UTC outlook for additional model run-to-run
continuity and confidence in mesoscale environmental features. This
activity will sweep northeastward during the evening with a gradual
lessening of the wind/hail hazard towards the early overnight as it
moves east into the eastern half of the Dakotas late.

...Ozarks...
A weak trough/low over the central US with embedded disturbances
from OK into IA continues to drift northeastward late this
morning. An associated band of 30-40 knot southwesterly mid-level
winds and deep moisture will lie across the Ozark plateau this
afternoon. The 12 UTC Springfield, MO raob sampled this belt of
stronger flow with 80-kt at 200 mb. Heating of a very moist airmass
with some minor enlargement of low-level hodographs may result a few
weak supercells developing coincident with peak heating. A couple
of brief tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are possible with
this activity.

...Eastern VA/NC...
A weak surface cold front is sagging southward across central VA
this morning. A combination of strong heating and frontal forcing
will lead to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across
southeast VA and northeast NC. The strongest of these cells could
produce gusty winds.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 06/07/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TSwY5f

SPC Jun 7, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MONTANA...NORTHEAST WYOMING...AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail, and an
isolated tornado threat are expected this afternoon and evening
across parts of the northern Plains. An isolated threat for
tornadoes and severe wind gusts will be possible across the Ozarks
region. Strong wind gusts will also be possible in the mid
Mississippi Valley and in the Mid-Atlantic.

...MT/WY/Dakotas...
A strong upper trough currently over the northern Great Basin will
translate eastward today, with large scale forcing for ascent
overspreading much of the northern High Plains region. This will
aid cyclogenesis over eastern WY and focus a surface cold front from
south-central WY into northwest ND. Thunderstorms are expected to
form by mid-afternoon off the BigHorn mountains and build eastward
across southeast MT. While this environment will be post-frontal,
Relatively steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will
support a risk of large hail and damaging winds.
Most CAM solutions suggest thunderstorms will become more numerous
and intense as they spread into western SD this evening, maintaining
support of the ENH risk area.

...Ozarks...
A weak cut-off low continues to drift northeastward across OK this
morning. An associated band of 30-40 knot southwesterly mid-level
winds and deep moisture will lie across the Ozark plateau today,
where scattered thunderstorms are expected through the period.
Parameters are rather weak across this region, but there will be
some risk of locally damaging wind gusts or a tornado this
afternoon/evening if pockets of daytime heating can occur.

...Eastern VA/NC...
A weak surface cold front is sagging southward across central VA
this morning. A combination of strong heating and frontal forcing
will lead to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across
southeast VA and northeast NC. The strongest of these cells could
produce gusty winds.

..Hart/Wendt.. 06/07/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TSwMGq

SPC Jun 7, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging wind gusts and an
isolated tornado threat are expected today across parts of the
northern Plains. An isolated threat for tornadoes and severe wind
gusts will be possible from parts of eastern Oklahoma and
southeastern Kansas eastward across the Ozarks. Strong wind gusts
will also be possible in the mid Mississippi Valley and in the
Mid-Atlantic.

...Northern Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies
today. Ahead of the trough, mid-level heights will gradually fall
across the northern Plains. At the surface, a trough of low pressure
will deepen in the western Dakotas as a cold front advances eastward
across the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints near the surface
trough will be in the lower to mid 60s F which will enable moderate
instability to develop around midday. During the afternoon,
thunderstorms are expected to form along the front and further east
near the surface trough as low-level convergence increases. Although
cells will initially be discrete, convection is expected to grow
upscale into a line during the evening.

At 21Z, RAP forecast soundings near the surface trough in western
North Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range with
700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This environment will be
favorable for supercells with large hail. The more dominant
supercells may be capable of producing hailstones greater than 2
inches in diameter. Low-level shear may be strong enough for an
isolated tornado threat as well. Supercells will be favored in the
late afternoon when cells will likely be discrete. In the early
evening, a quick transition to linear mode is expected, although
rotating elements will continue to be possible in the line itself.
As the line develops, severe wind gusts will become more likely.
Intense parts of the line could be capable of producing wind gusts
above 75 mph.

...Eastern Oklahoma/Southeast Kansas/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi
Valley...
An upper-level trough will move northeastward across the central
U.S. today, over the top of a moist and unstable airmass. Surface
dewpoints from eastern parts of the southern and central Plains into
the mid Mississippi Valley will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F.
This will contribute to the development of moderate instability by
afternoon. Random areas of maximized low-level convergence are
expected this afternoon which will lead to the formation of
scattered thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear of 25 to 30 knots should
be sufficient for isolated supercells. Storm-relative helicity could
reach 200 m2/s2 in a few areas, which would support an isolated
tornado threat. Strong wind gusts will also be possible with this
threat extending eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. The
wind-damage threat will be greatest in the mid to late afternoon as
low-level lapse rates become steep.

...Mid-Atlantic...
An upper-level trough and an associated cold front will move across
the Mid-Atlantic today. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the
mid 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon.
Thunderstorms will develop near and to the south of the front during
the mid to late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings ahead of the front
suggest that 0-3 km lapse rates will peak near 8 C/km, which should
support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts.

..Broyles/Supinie.. 06/07/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TSw9z0