SPC Jun 10, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms with a potential for 60-80 mph winds
with locally higher gusts, along with tornadoes (some potentially
strong), and large to very large hail are expected across the
northern and central Plains this evening into tonight.

...Central and Northern Plains...
On water vapor imagery, a mid-level shortwave trough appears to be
located from eastern Montana southeastward into western South Dakota
and west-central Nebraska. At the surface, a 996 mb low is currently
located in northwestern North Dakota with a cold front extending
southward from the low. A dryline is evident from central South
Dakota into western Nebraska. To the east of the front and dryline,
a moist airmass is in place with surface dewpoints in the mid to
upper 60s F, which is contributing to moderate to strong
instability. Thunderstorms are currently developing along the entire
length of the front and dryline. Storms that remain discrete or
semi-discrete over the next couple of hours could be supercells,
with a potential to produce tornadoes and large to very large hail.
A couple of strong tornadoes may occur with supercells that are
intense. As convective coverage rapidly increases over the next
couple of hours, a transition to linear mode is expected with a
squall line forming and moving eastward across the remainder of the
Dakotas this evening.

Along and near the instability axis, the RAP has 0-3 km lapse rates
in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. In addition, 0-6 km shear near this axis
is around 45 knots, as is evident on the Bismarck and Aberdeen
WSR-88D VWPs. This environment will be very favorable for severe
wind gusts, and some gusts could exceed 80 mph along the more
intense parts of the line. While a tornado threat will exist with
supercells early on, a continued tornado threat is expected as the
squall line develops with embedded rotating cells. The potential for
severe wind gusts and tornadoes will continue into the late evening
and overnight period as the line moves eastward into the upper
Mississippi Valley.

Further south into the central Plains, the RAP has a pocket of
strong instability analyzed over east-central Nebraska, where the
RAP shows MLCAPE in the 4500 to 5500 J/kg range. Severe
thunderstorms have developed to the west and south of this
instability maximum. The RAP also has a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet
max in far northern Kansas. As this feature strengthens and moves
northeastward into eastern Nebraska, low-level shear will become
increasingly favorable for tornadoes. Supercells that can become
robust may be able to produce a strong tornado or two.

Southward into central Kansas, strong instability is analyzed by the
RAP over much of central and northeastern Kansas, where MLCAPE is
estimated to be from 3000 to 4500 J/kg. In addition, moderate
deep-layer shear is present and low to mid-level lapse rates are
steep. This will support a threat for large hail and severe wind
gusts this evening with the stronger supercells and short line
segments.

...Ohio Valley...
A moist and unstable airmass is currently located across much of the
Ohio Valley. An axis of instability is analyzed from southern
Illinois east-northeastward across southern Indiana and northwest
Ohio. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing in west-central Indiana
just to the west of the instability axis. Ahead of the storms,
low-level lapse rates are steep. This will contribute to a potential
for isolated severe gusts over the next hour or two.

..Broyles.. 06/10/2026


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SPC Jun 9, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms with a potential for 60-80 mph winds
with locally higher gusts, along with tornadoes (some potentially
strong), and large to very large hail are expected across the
northern and central Plains this afternoon and tonight. Severe wind
gusts and large hail will also be possible from north-central and
west-central Kansas southwestward into the Texas Panhandle.

...Central and Northern Plains...
Current satellite imagery shows negatively tilted upper troughing
from the Pacific Northwest into the central Rockies, with an
embedded shortwave trough emerging over the northern/central High
Plains. This shortwave is forecast to continue northeastward today,
with associated height falls spreading from the northern/central
High Plains into the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest.

Recent surface analysis shows a moist airmass across the Plains,
although notable airmass modification has occurred across KS and
western MO from an overnight MCS. Outflow associated with this MCS
currently arcs from south-central KS through extreme northeast OK
and southwest MO into south-central MO. Convective outflow also
exists over south-central NE. These features add to an already
complex surface pattern which features several lows along a wavy
surface trough from north-central MO into southeast CO. A stationary
boundary also extends northeastward from the low over southeast MT
through south/eastern ND and far northwest MN.

General expectation is for the north/central High Plains to eject
over the northern Plains, with the associated large-scale ascent and
convergence along the cold front contributing to thunderstorms
across a large portion of the northern and central Plains. Very
strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) will be in place across
much of this region, with potential pockets of extreme buoyancy
(i.e. MLCAPE over 4000 J/kg) from eastern SD through eastern
NE/extreme western IA. Thunderstorms are expected to form near the
front/dryline by mid/late afternoon, along the western edge of the
greater buoyancy from the west-central Dakotas southward into
western Nebraska. High LCLs and more southerly deep-layer shear will
favor a linear mode. These linear storms will move eastward into a
more moist and unstable airmass, while shear also strengthens and
becomes more southwesterly, likely resulting in a one or more
fast-moving convective lines. Primary hazard within these lines will
be significant wind gusts (75+ mph), although increasing low-level
southerly/southeasterly flow with eastern extent could also support
embedded tornadoes. Hail is also possible within the stronger
updrafts, particularly earlier in the convective cycle.

A lower confidence, but still noteworthy, tornado risk will be
associated with any more discrete development that occurs within the
warm sector ahead of any convective lines. Primary forecast
uncertainty results from the inherent limited predictability of the
more mesoscale forcing mechanisms responsible for convective
initiation east of the greater large-scale ascent. Environmental
conditions support supercells capable of all hazards, including
strong tornadoes, with any mature convection. Two areas that appear
to have a relatively higher potential for discrete storms are
east-central into northeast ND, and eastern NE into southeast SD and
western IA/southwest MN. Stronger low-level flow will persist across
these areas, resulting in greater warm-air advection with perhaps
the realization of a discrete storm or two.

...Western and central Kansas and Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...
Persistent southwesterly flow aloft atop a diurnally destabilizing
airmass is expected to support high-based thunderstorms across
southeast CO/northeast NM this afternoon. These storms are then
expected to persist downstream into the more unstable airmass across
southwest KS, the OK Panhandle, and northern TX Panhandle. Large
hail is possible early in the convective cycle but upscale growth
into a more linear bowing segment is anticipated. Given the high
cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates, strong to severe gusts
are also possible, including the possibility for a few gusts over 75
mph.

...Middle Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley...
Airmass destabilization is anticipated this afternoon within the
very moist airmass in place over the region. Thunderstorm
development is expected across the region as a weak MCV, currently
over central MO, tracks southeastward into the region. Shear will be
modest, likely limiting storm organization, but strong buoyancy will
support robust updrafts and the potential for damaging gusts. Given
multiple surface boundaries and the presence of an MCV, a
low-probability tornado risk exists as well.

..Mosier/Squitieri.. 06/09/2026


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SPC Jun 9, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms with a potential for 60-80 mph winds
with locally higher gusts, along with tornadoes (some potentially
strong), and large to very large hail are expected across the
northern and central Plains this afternoon and tonight. Severe wind
gusts and large hail will also be possible from north-central and
west-central Kansas southwestward into the Texas Panhandle.

...Central and Northern Plains...
A prominent upper trough will shift east-northeastward from the
northern Rockies toward the northern High Plains and Canadian
Prairies through tonight, with height falls overspreading much of
the northern/central Plains toward the Upper Midwest. This will be
atop a moist airmass near/east of a dryline/front located from far
western North Dakota southward into western Nebraska. Warm sector
surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F.

Thunderstorms are expected to form near the front/dryline by
mid/late afternoon, initially spanning the west-central Dakotas
southward into western Nebraska. Some semi-discrete storms including
supercells may also form farther east within the warm sector,
enhanced as the mid-level jet phases with a significantly
strengthening low-level jet primarily focused across eastern North
Dakota/northeast South Dakota. Aside from large hail, a few
tornadoes are expected, some of which could be strong especially
during the early/mid-afternoon hours. Over time and farther west,
strong low-level convergence near the instability axis will result
in a relatively rapid transition to linear mode with multiple linear
clusters/possible MCS expected to develop by evening. The severe MCS
will move eastward across the central and eastern Dakotas, with
damaging wind and some hail/tornado potential continuing eastward
tonight toward Minnesota/part of Iowa.

Aside from North Dakota/northern South Dakota and northwest
Minnesota, another supercell/tornado-favorable zone could
materialize by evening farther southeast from southeast South Dakota
into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa/southwest Minnesota.
Mid-level temperatures will be a bit warmer and storm
coverage/certainty will likely be lesser across this region.
However, a rather favorable and potentially volatile environment
will exist as a secondary low-level jet branch increases and
interfaces with an effective warm frontal zone this evening, with
initial intense supercells plausible if/where storms develop.

...Western and central Kansas and Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...
Higher-based storms are expected to develop regionally by late
afternoon/early evening with moderate buoyancy and very steep lapse
rates favorable for large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts, some
of which could be significant.

...Middle Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley...
As a byproduct of several decayed MCS, multiple MCVs will are
expected to drift east-southeastward across the region today and
interface with a moist/unstable environment influenced by outflow
and differential heating. A rejuvenated round of severe storms is
expected by mid/late afternoon, and some supercells are plausible if
MCV-related mid-level flow diurnally persists. Multicells capable of
damaging winds are the most probable hazard, but some
supercell-related tornado potential may also exist.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 06/09/2026


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SPC Jun 9, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms with a potential for 60 to 80 mph
winds with locally higher gusts, along with tornadoes (some
potentially strong), and large to very large hail are expected to
develop in parts of the central and northern Plains from this
afternoon into tonight. Severe wind gusts and hail will also be
possible from north-central and west-central Kansas southwestward
into the Texas Panhandle.

...Central and Northern Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the western U.S.
today. Ahead of the system, mid-level heights will fall over the
central and northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be
in place over the Great Plains, with a dryline located from far
western North Dakota southward into western Nebraska. To the east of
the dryline, surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower
70s F. As surface temperatures warm today, an axis of moderate
instability is expected to develop over the central Dakotas.
Thunderstorms will form near and to the east of the dryline in the
mid afternoon. Strong low-level convergence near the instability
axis will result in a relatively rapid transition to linear mode
with a large MCS expected to develop during the late afternoon and
early evening. The severe MCS will move eastward across the central
and eastern Dakotas, with the southern part of the line located in
central Nebraska.

Late afternoon RAP forecast soundings in the central Dakotas near
the instability axis have MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range with
0-6 km shear between 30 to 40 knots. Low to mid-level lapse rates
are forecast to be in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This will be very
favorable for large hail and severe wind gusts. Hailstones greater
than 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts above 80 mph will be
possible with supercells early, and along the more intense parts of
the line as it develops.

Concerning the tornado threat, a mid-level jet will become
juxtaposed with a low-level jet in the late afternoon across central
and northern North Dakota. Storms that can remain discrete for a few
hours after initiation will have potential to become supercells and
produce tornadoes. The strongest low-level shear is forecast in
northeastern North Dakota, where RAP forecast soundings increase 0-3
km storm-relative helicity into the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range by early
evening. This will be favorable for a few strong tornadoes. Further
south from central South Dakota into Nebraska, there will be
potential for supercells with tornadoes near gaps in the line. The
threat for strong tornadoes may be greatest in the early to mid
evening as the line interacts with a 45 to 55 knot low-level jet
from far southeastern South Dakota southward into eastern Nebraska.

From late evening into the early overnight period, the severe threat
associated with the severe MCS is expected to gradually downtrend as
it moves into the upper Mississippi Valley.

...North-central and Western Kansas/Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...

At mid-levels today, heights will fall within southwesterly flow
over the southern and central High Plains. At the surface, a moist
and unstable airmass will be located over much of the region. By
afternoon, a focused zone of maximized low-level convergence is
forecast to develop. This axis will move eastward toward the western
edge of the stronger instability, with thunderstorms forming in the
mid to late afternoon. Near the axis, MLCAPE is forecast to be
around 2000 J/kg with 0-3 km lapse rates near 8 C/km. In addition,
surface temperature-dewpoint spreads will be large, which will be
favorable for severe wind gusts in the late afternoon and early
evening.

...Upper Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys...
A mid-level ridge will move eastward toward the upper Mississippi
and lower Ohio Valleys today. Ahead of the ridge, moderate
instability will be in place by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms
that form within this moist and unstable airmass will have potential
for isolated severe gusts, mainly as low-level lapse rates become
steep in the afternoon.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 06/09/2026


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