SPC Jul 2, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...AND NORTHWEST IOWA....

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND OVER WESTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains
into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions today into tonight, as well
as across the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley this
afternoon and early evening.

...SD to WI...
Morning water vapor imagery shows several weak and/or convectively
induced shortwave troughs moving across the northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest. This area will have widespread marginal to moderate
afternoon CAPE and dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s. This leads to
a forecast of a large area of potential thunderstorm development,
but with weak/nebulous forcing and general height-rises aloft. As
such, the overall confidence in this forecast is not very high.

Storms are likely to focus along a boundary currently evident from
southern SD into central IA. Convection currently developing in
northern IA near the boundary should continue to intensify through
the afternoon and track into southern WI/northern IL with a severe
wind/hail threat.

Other intense thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop along
the SD/NE portion of the boundary by mid/late afternoon, also with a
risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts.

...Western KS...
Full sunshine and dewpoints in the 60s will lead to a region of
strong instability over western KS this afternoon. Most CAM
solutions suggest at least isolated thunderstorms form along the
KS/CO border and spread slowly eastward during the evening. A
deeply mixed boundary layer and sufficient CAPE suggest a risk of
damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells.

...TN Valley/Southern Appalachians...
A widespread very moist and unstable air mass is present today
across this region, with full sunshine leading to steep low-level
lapse rates and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Weak forcing under an
upper ridge limits confidence in timing/location of storms.
However, widely scattered thunderstorm development should eventually
result in merging outflows and the risk of gusty/damaging winds this
afternoon and early evening across the region.

..Hart/Halbert.. 07/02/2026


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SPC Jul 2, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe storms will be possible from the
northern Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions today into
tonight, as well as across the southern Appalachians and Tennessee
Valley this afternoon and early evening.

...Northern High Plains into the Great Lakes and Midwest...
A belt of moderate southwesterly flow will extend across the
north-central states through the period. A few ongoing clusters of
showers/thunderstorms extend along residual outflow from WI to along
the MN-IA border vicinity. Farther west, a weak low analyzed near
the Black Hills and associated lee trough will aid in maintaining
southerly flow to the south of a residual frontal zone draped over
SD east-northeastward to near Lake Superior.

Some isolated severe risk may continue this morning with a small
cluster along the Dakotas border primarily to the north of the
front. Heating of a seasonably moist airmass (60s deg F north and
70s across eastern NE into IA) will contribute to moderate to strong
instability by late afternoon. Afternoon thunderstorm development
is expected near the surface low and in the vicinity of the surface
boundary/residual outflow across the Dakotas. Forecast model data
indicates deep-layer shear around 40-45 kts which will support
initial supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe
gusts. As additional storms develop and cold pools merge and result
in a few clusters evolving with time, the wind threat will likely
increase with stronger gusts associated with bowing segments. This
activity will likely persist well into the evening with some
lingering severe potentially into the overnight over the MN-IA
vicinity late.

...Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys...
A seasonably moist boundary layer is evident in surface observations
(lower 70s F surface dewpoints) this morning. Relatively cool
500-mb temperatures around -9 deg C (reference the 12 UTC Nashville,
TN raob) and strong heating will result in fairly steep lapse rates
across this region by early to mid afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms are likely and a few stronger clusters will probably
evolve within a weak easterly flow regime to the southwest of an
mid-level anticyclone centered over southwest VA. The steepened 0-2
km lapse rates and high PW (1.5-1.75 inches) will support wet
microbursts capable of strong to severe gusts (locally 60-70 mph)
with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Modifying the
Nashville raob for forecast afternoon high temperatures in the upper
90s deg F yields extreme MLCAPE (4000+ J/kg). Due to the magnitude
of buoyancy, have highlighted higher probabilities to account for
increased confidence in a wet microburst threat. Isolated hail may
also accompany the more intense updrafts. This activity will
probably coalesce into a few clusters that gradually weaken during
the evening as the wind-damage threat subsides.

...Central High Plains...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within the lee trough
across the central High Plains this afternoon. Moderate instability
overlapping with around 25-30 kts of deep-layer shear will support
potential for a mix of supercells and multicell clusters. Steep
low- to mid-level lapse rates and large temperature/dew point
spreads will support potential for severe gusts. Initial supercells
will pose potential for large hail.

...Northeast...
Northeasterly flow within the northern periphery of the eastern
ridge will allow for thunderstorm activity to track southward out of
Quebec/Ontario across portions of the Northeast this afternoon.
Uncertainty remains regarding details of convective evolution and
potential corridors of greater threat. Nonetheless, moderate to
strong instability and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will support
storm organization, with damaging gusts being the primary hazard
with the stronger storms.

..Smith/Dean.. 07/02/2026


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SPC Jul 2, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains
into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, as well as across the
southern Appalachians on Thursday. Isolated strong to severe storms
may also occur in the Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and
parts of the Northeast.

...Synopsis...
The upper level pattern across the US will be characterized by
troughing across the western US with a high amplitude ridge across
the eastern US. Between these features, several shortwave troughs
will rotate through the flow across the central/northern Plains into
the Midwest. A surface low will be located across eastern Montana
into the western Dakotas, with a surface boundary extending from the
northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

...Northern High Plains into the Great Lakes and Midwest...
Early morning convection is likely across some portion of North
Dakota in association with a vort max moving out of Montana. The
evolution of this activity will likely have implications on the
exact placement of the surface boundary by this afternoon across the
Dakotas. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected near the
surface low and in the vicinity of the surface boundary/residual
outflow across the Dakotas by the afternoon. Coverage should
increase as a shortwave moves out of Montana into the
afternoon/evening with increasing forcing for ascent. Across the
northern High Plains, strong daytime heating amid steep low to
mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability.
This in combination with deep-layer shear around 40-45 kts will
support initial supercells capable of large to very large hail and
damaging wind. Through time, boundary parallel shear and large dew
point spreads promoting outflow dominate storms will likely support
one or more clusters/bowing segments moving south and east with
time, resulting in an increase in the damaging wind threat and
potential for a few significant gust 75+ mph.

...Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley...
A very moist and unstable air mass is expected to be in place across
the Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley this afternoon.
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
high terrain, with tendency to cluster along outflows. Consensus is
highest across the Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley for a more
focused corridor of damaging wind potential.

...Central High Plains...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within the lee trough
across the central High Plains this afternoon. Moderate instability
overlapping with around 25-30 kts of deep-layer shear will support
potential for a mix of supercells and multi-cell clusters. Steep
low- to mid-level lapse rates and large temperature/dew point
spreads will support potential for severe gusts. Initial supercells
will pose potential for large hail.

...Northeast...
Northeasterly flow within the northern periphery of the eastern
ridge will allow for thunderstorm activity to track southward out of
Quebec/Ontario across portions of the Northeast this afternoon. The
presence of moderate to strong instability and 30-40 kt
of deep-layer shear will be supportive of organized storm modes with
the predominant hazard being damaging winds. Higher wind
probabilities and a level 2/Slight Risk may be needed with
additional outlook updates if a more favorable corridor of wind
potential become clearer.

..Thornton/Chalmers.. 07/02/2026


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SPC Jul 2, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES....

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest and Upper
Great Lakes this evening. A couple of tornadoes are possible but
damaging wind gusts are expected to be the more widespread hazard,
in addition to isolated large to very large hail. Severe storms also
remain a concern across parts of the central High Plains and the
Northeast.

...Midwest and Upper Great Lakes...
Steadily deepening convective activity has developed across the
surface boundary in southern Minnesota into northern/western Iowa.
Much of this region has been under the influence of a band of
mid-level cloud cover this afternoon. Comparison of the 18z and 00z
observed soundings from OAX indicate inhibition has eroded. Strong
buoyancy also remains across the area amid steep lapse rates and
ample deep layer shear. A southerly low-level jet is progged to
increase through the evening which should further support convective
development. A mix of supercells and clustered multi-cell
thunderstorms is expected through the evening, given largely
boundary parallel shear. With the increase in the low-level jet, a
tornado or two will remain possible with any more discrete
supercells.

...Northeast...
A cluster of thunderstorms is advancing eastward into portions of
northwestern New York just east of Lake Ontario. Sufficient
instability remains across portions of central/southern New York,
with more rain cooled air from several rounds of showers to the
north. This cluster may pose some potential for occasional strong to
severe winds downstream through the evening given remaining warm
temperatures and moist profiles downstream.

...Central and southern High Plains...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity continues near the dryline
across Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. The strongest deep
layer shear is located ahead of a short-wave impulse across western
Kansas, where 30-40 kts is analyzed in SPC mesoanalysis. Steep lapse
rates and deeply mixed profiles will support potential for damaging
wind and large hail with supercells through the evening.

...Southeast...
Several clusters of thunderstorms continue across portions of
Mississippi into eastern Louisiana/southern Arkansas this evening. A
few instances of strong to severe wind will continue before gradual
weakening occurs with loss of daytime heating over the next couple
of hours.

..Thornton.. 07/02/2026


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