SPC Jun 2, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially a
couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening in parts
of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and marginal hail will
also be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains. A
few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia into
northern and eastern Florida.

...Northern Plains...
The upper low that has affected the western U.S. for the last
several days has lifted into Alberta, with broad 40-60 knot
southwesterly mid-level flow across much of the northern Plains. A
cold front currently extends from eastern WY into western ND, which
will provide the primary focus for thunderstorm development later
this afternoon. Forecast soundings across this area show strong
deep-layer shear, steep lapse rates, and MLCAPE values around 2500
J/kg. This suggests the potential for several supercells storms
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.

Numerous thunderstorms over western KS this morning have overturned
most of this air mass, and will likely suppress strong storms
through the evening. However, ample moisture has surged westward
into the foothills of CO where isolated strong storms may occur.

...Southeast TX...
An outflow boundary associated with convective clusters over OK has
surged southward into the Red River valley. A hot and humid air
mass over southeast TX will be supportive of re-development of
afternoon thunderstorms along this outflow boundary. Storms will
likely track southward through the early evening, posing a risk of
locally damaging wind gusts.

...Southwest TX/Southeast NM...
Southeasterly low-level winds are present this morning over much of
southwest TX and southeast NM, maintaining 50s dewpoints in the
region and encouraging thunderstorms later today over the terrain.
The storms that form will spread northeastward for a few hours,
posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts.

...FL/GA...
An upper trough will track southward across the eastern states
today. A moist and moderately unstable airmass will develop over
much of FL and southern GA, with isolated afternoon thunderstorm
development expected. The strongest cells may produce
gusty/damaging winds.

..Hart/Kerr.. 06/02/2026


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SPC Jun 2, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PART OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially a
couple of tornadoes are expected on Tuesday afternoon and evening in
parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and marginal hail
will also be possible in parts of the southern and central High
Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia
into northern and eastern Florida.

...Synopsis...
The primary upper low will make little eastward progress today.
Moderate to strong mid-level winds will persist across parts of the
western Dakotas. Mid-level winds will drop off fairly rapidly from
Colorado southward. Convective outflows will be present within the
central and southern Plains. To the east, a strong, amplified trough
will move through the Tennessee Valley into the Southeast.

...Eastern Wyoming into the Dakotas...
Moderate to strong mid-level winds will persist across the region
through the day. A surface low will develop near the WY/SD/ND border
region by late afternoon. Storms will develop either within parts of
the higher terrain in Wyoming or along a dryline/weak surface trough
feature. Additional storms are possible along a southwest-northeast
cold front in western/central North Dakota. Upper 50s to perhaps low
60s F dewpoints are expected. Effective shear values of 45-50 kts
will promote supercell structures, particularly in western South
Dakota/southwest North Dakota near the surface low. Large to
very-large hail and severe winds will be possible. A couple of
tornadoes are also possible with discrete storms near the surface
low. Should storms maintain a discrete mode into early evening, a
modest increase in the low-level jet will increase the tornado
potential.

...Central/southern High Plains...
Moisture return will occur in the wake of overnight convection. Low
to mid 50s F dewpoints into the Foothills/southern Rockies appears
plausible. Along the Front Range, mid-level winds will be weaker
than yesterday. The degree of surface heating will play a role in
storm coverage during the afternoon. At present, isolated storms
capable of marginal hail and isolated severe gusts are the most
likely scenario. Farther south, temperatures will be warmer and
dewpoints may be slightly greater as well. Despite the weaker shear,
scattered storms will develop in strong buoyancy and pose a risk of
severe wind gusts.

...Southeast Alabama/southern Georgia/Florida...
Rich surface moisture (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will reside
south of a weak surface boundary. Mid-level flow will be at least
moderately strong with the approach of the trough. Given the
influence of outflow from the previous days convection as well as a
northerly component to the winds through the day, the northern
extent of the severe risk is uncertain. It is more probable that
stronger convection forms along the Gulf breeze front within the
Florida Panhandle and the sea breeze on the eastern coast. Coverage
in Alabama and Georgia may be rather isolated. Damaging wind gusts
are the main hazard as well as small hail. Poor mid-level lapse
rates will limit greater hail potential even with supercellular
modes possible in eastern Florida.

..Wendt/Moore.. 06/02/2026


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SPC Jun 2, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0858 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OZARKS/MID-SOUTH...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are still
expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central
Plains. Scattered strong to severe wind gusts are also possible
within the Ozarks and portions of the Mid-South.

...01Z Update...
Notable upper-level low is promote severe convection within the
Central High Plains this evening. This activity with continue for a
few more hours. The most organized convection has become more linear
in southwestern Kansas. This will be the focal point for severe wind
gusts this evening/overnight. Some of this risk may eventually
spread in to northern Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe storms
are also ongoing in Arkansas/northern Mississippi. These storms will
be capable of large hail and damaging winds over the next few hours.
The primary question remains how long the threat will continue. Some
models still hint at linear organization occurring later tonight,
but confidence is low as to where this will occur. Strongly forced
convection may produce severe gusts in parts of eastern
Montana/western North Dakota. A remaining pocket of enhanced shear
and buoyancy is evident near the SC/GA border. A subtle shortwave
may allow a cluster of storms to move south and east. Isolated
damaging winds would be possible with this activity.

..Wendt.. 06/02/2026


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SPC Jun 1, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE
TN VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected
this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains.
Scattered to numerous strong to severe wind gusts will also be
possible from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.

...Mid-South into the Southeast...
An MCS is currently progressing generally southeastward, with
preceding outflow arcing from southeast MO through far northwest TN.
Some brief intensification was noted along this outflow, although
updraft strength continues to be somewhat transient. General
expectation is for this pattern of brief intensification to continue
for the next hour or two, before building instability along the
western edge of the outflow results in updraft/downdraft cycles
strong enough to produce strong to severe gusts. However, given
limited deep-layer shear, overall updraft organization will likely
remain transient.

Additional new development is anticipated farther west during the
afternoon from south-central MO into northern AR (and perhaps
western TN and northern MS). Dewpoints in the 70s amid afternoon
high temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s will support very strong
buoyancy, with MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. This buoyancy will
support robust updrafts, but weak shear will limit storm
organization, contributing to an outflow-dominant, multicellular
mode. Even with limited organization, the updraft/downdraft cycles
should be strong enough for widespread strong/severe storms capable
of damaging wind gusts and some isolated hail.

The storms, whether with the ongoing cluster or newer development
farther west, may spread as far south as central MS/AL during the
evening before weakening.

...High Plains...
Morning surface analysis placed a low over southeast CO, with moist
easterly/southeasterly flow throughout the eastern and northern
periphery of this low. Associated low-level moisture advection is
anticipated throughout the day, but strong boundary-layer mixing is
expected to result in afternoon dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s.
Even so, this modest low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level
lapse rates will foster moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE likely around
1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is
anticipated from southeast WY into the foothills of central CO by
mid-afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear should support supercells
capable of large to isolated very large hail early in the convective
cycle, but a trend towards a more outflow-dominant structure leads
to bowing segments capable of strong to severe gusts. Isolated gusts
over 65 kt are possible. Some upscale growth into an organized MCS
is possible with one or more of these bowing segments this evening
as the low-level jet increases and the clusters encounter greater
low-level moisture.

Isolated damaging gusts are also possible with any development along
the dryline in TX.

..Mosier/Weinman.. 06/01/2026


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