SPC Nov 23, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX....

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of large hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas.

...West TX...
Current satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over AZ,
with a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms preceding it
across central/eastern NM. This low is forecast to continue
northeastward throughout the day as a belt of strong mid-level flow
pivots through its southern and eastern periphery across the
southern High Plains and into the southern/central Plains. Low-level
moisture will continue to advect northwestward ahead of this low and
associated jet streak and model consensus brings upper 50s dewpoints
into the Permian Basin by this evening. This should result in a
relatively confined region of surface-based buoyancy across the
Permian Basin, which will combined with large-scale ascent and
strong shear to support supercells. Primary threat will be large
hail, although the anticipated development of surface-based buoyancy
does indicate a low-probability threat for strong winds and/or a
tornado.

Low-level stability will increase quickly with eastward extent, as a
result of both nocturnal cooling and generally cooler surface
temperatures throughout the day. Even so, enough elevated buoyancy
is anticipated for continued strong to occasionally severe storms
throughout much of the evening and overnight, particularly in the
03Z-06Z time frame across southwest TX. Hail is the primary risk
with these storms.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 11/23/2025


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SPC Nov 23, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF WEST TX....

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of large hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas.

...West TX...
A large upper low currently over AZ will track northeastward into
NM, with a 70+ knot mid-level speed max approaching west TX by this
afternoon. Ahead of this feature, southerly low-level winds will
help transport 50s dewpoints into much of west TX ahead of a diffuse
dryline. Most CAM solutions suggest that scattered thunderstorms
will form along this dryline and track northeastward for a few
hours. Given the strength of deep-layer shear, supercell structures
will be likely with a risk of a large hail and perhaps a tornado.
Storms should weaken by late evening as they move into a
progressively less unstable air mass and diurnal cooling ensues.

..Hart/Broyles.. 11/23/2025


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SPC Nov 23, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected mainly over parts of Arizona
and into New Mexico tonight. Severe weather is not forecast,
although small hail cannot be ruled out.

...Discussion...
Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening ahead of an upper low
moving across northern Baja CA, affecting much of southern into
eastern AZ. Area soundings and objective analysis indicate a few
hundred J/kg MUCAPE is present, though primarily elevated in nature.
All this is occurring within a deep southerly flow regime, with
moderate deep layer shear. Any embedded cellular activity may
produce small hail given cold profiles aloft.

As cooling aloft spreads further into NM overnight, additional rain
and elevated thunderstorms will develop over the area. Forecast
soundings indicate favorable deep-layer shear will persist, with
midlevel moistening above an initially dry boundary layer. Again,
minimal/small hail will be possible given cold air aloft and
favorable shear for cellular storm mode.

..Jewell.. 11/23/2025


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SPC Nov 22, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the Southwest,
mainly from late in the day into the overnight. Isolated
thunderstorms are also possible from the Texas Coast across the
Southeast States. Severe thunderstorm potential appears low.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast thinking remains the same, and no changes were
warranted with this update. See the previous discussion below.

..Weinman.. 11/22/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025/

...South TX/TX Coast across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...
Recent surface analysis places a low just off the northern
Mid-Atlantic coast. A cold front extends west-southwestward from
this low across central VA and middle TN to another low just east of
MEM. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low
across northern MS, central LA, and the TX Coastal Plain. This cold
front is forecast to push eastward/southeastward throughout the day,
and isolated thunderstorms are anticipated within this broad warm
sector that stretches from the TX coast through much of the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Poor lapse rates and corresponding
limited buoyancy should keep updrafts weak and transient throughout
much of this region, limiting the severe potential. The only
exception is across south TX, where considerable low-level moisture
(i.e. dewpoints in the 70s) is in place, resulting in greater
buoyancy this afternoon. Even so, this region will be displaced well
south and west of the stronger mid-level flow, with weak shear
likely limiting updraft organization and persistence and tempering
the overall severe potential.

...Southwest...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low just off the
northern Baja California coast this morning. This low is forecast to
progress gradually eastward today, with strong mid-level flow
spreading from the base of this low eastward/northeastward across
the Southwest. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are anticipated
ahead of this upper low, spreading from AZ this afternoon and
evening into NM overnight. In general, limited buoyancy should keep
overall thunderstorm strength low, despite strengthen deep-layer
vertical shear. The only exception is across southeast AZ, where
very strong vertical shear could overlap modest buoyancy for a few
hours this evening. Meridional orientation to the shear will favor
line segments and storm interactions, which should limit updraft
organization and the overall severe potential. That being said, a
few stronger storms with small, sub-severe hail and gusty winds are
possible. The overall severe potential is currently forecast to
remain too isolated to include any 5% probabilities.


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