SPC Dec 1, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across coastal portions of the
Florida Panhandle late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted midlevel trough will advance eastward from the
central Rockies/High Plains to the Mid MS Valley through the period.
To the south of this predominant feature, a subtle/low-amplitude
impulse will track east-northeastward across the Gulf Coast states
-- gradually phasing with the aforementioned trough late in the
period. As this phasing occurs, low-level south-southwesterly flow
will strengthen beneath a belt of 50-kt midlevel westerly flow in
the 06-12Z time frame -- with the strongest low-level mass response
focusing over the Florida Panhandle. In the low-levels, an
increasingly defined frontal wave will develop eastward along an
east/west-oriented marine front draped along the immediate central
Gulf Coast -- approaching the western FL Panhandle by around 08-09Z
(with varying timing/placement among the latest model guidance).

...Florida Panhandle...
As the frontal wave evolves eastward in the vicinity of the FL
Panhandle, most guidance depicts middle/upper 60s boundary-layer
dewpoints overspreading the immediate coast between 08-12Z. Forecast
soundings suggest 67-68F dewpoints will yield weak surface-based
buoyancy over the coast. Any offshore supercells/organized clusters
that can move/develop into this weak (albeit sufficient)
surface-based buoyancy amid enlarging, clockwise-curved low-level
hodographs will pose a localized tornado and damaging-wind risk over
the immediate coast. Despite a potentially limited spatial/temporal
overlap between the surface-based buoyancy and favorable low-level
shear, 2-percent tornado and 5-percent wind probabilities are
warranted where this overlap should be maximized ahead of the
frontal wave.

..Weinman.. 12/01/2025


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SPC Dec 1, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...01Z Update...
During the 08-12Z time frame, a subtle midlevel impulse (evident in
water-vapor imagery) will advance east-northeastward from MX to
South TX. In response, weak low-level warm advection and moistening
atop a cool/stable boundary layer may support a couple elevated
thunderstorms along the Middle TX Coast and vicinity.

..Weinman.. 12/01/2025


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SPC Nov 30, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 302000Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 11/30/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Thunderstorm potential will remain minimal today for a majority of
the CONUS, with a few exceptions. Isolated thunderstorms may occur
along/near parts of the Gulf Coast as a cold front continues to
advance offshore, with a low chance for additional elevated
thunderstorms late tonight into early Monday morning for portions of
coastal TX. Isolated thunderstorm potential will also exist mainly
this afternoon/early evening across the southern FL Peninsula/Keys,
and separately across parts of UT. Limited instability and/or shear
will preclude severe thunderstorms across all these regions.


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SPC Nov 30, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 301300Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast, southern
Florida, and central Utah. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A pair of shortwave troughs, one currently moving through the Upper
Great Lakes region and the other moving into the Upper Midwest, will
pivot eastward/northeastward today, with the second shortwave ending
the period extended from eastern Quebec through New England. Farther
west, another shortwave trough will drop southeastward through the
Great Basin. Evolution of these waves will promote continued upper
troughing across the western and central CONUS while the eastern
CONUS trends more zonal.

At the surface, a low associated with the Upper Great Lakes
shortwave is currently centered over Lower MI. An extensive cold
front extends southward from this low into northern KY before
shifting more southwestward and continuing to another surface low
just off the South TX Coast. The primary surface low is forecast to
progress northeastward across southeastern Ontario and eastern
Quebec while occluding throughout the day. As it does, northern and
central portions of the cold front will make steady
eastward/southeastward progress throughout the day, likely extending
from southern New England through the Carolina Piedmont by 00Z.
Southern portion of the front will also move eastward, but more
slowly, as a weak frontal low moves eastward along the immediate
central Gulf Coast.

Dry and stable conditions associated with a cold continental airmass
will preclude thunderstorms across the majority of the CONUS. A few
isolated thunderstorms are possible across the immediate
western/central Gulf Coast, where moderate low-level moisture
remains in place ahead of the cold front and/or surface low. A few
isolated thunderstorms are also possible across the southern/eastern
FL Peninsula amid moderate low-level moisture and weakly convergent
low-level easterly flow. Lastly, a few flashes could occur within
any deeper convection over central UT as the Great Basin shortwave
trough progresses across the region.

..Mosier/Dean.. 11/30/2025


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