SPC Jul 3, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage and large hail are expected from parts of
Nebraska into Iowa today. Isolated to scattered severe storms are
also possible extending eastward from the northern/central Plains
into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.

...SD/NE...
Water vapor loop shows a weak shortwave trough over central WY
approaching the Black Hills region. This, along with remnant
outflow boundaries from recent convection, will aid in the
development of scattered thunderstorms over western SD/NE by
mid/late afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and supercell
structures will promote the risk of very large hail in the initial
storms over the Black Hills. Activity is expected to organized into
a bowing MCS during the evening and track roughly along the NE/SD
border with a risk of severe wind and hail.

...NE/IA/Northwest MO...
Moderately strong southerly low-level winds over KS will maintain a
hot/humid air mass across southeast NE today. Thunderstorms are
expected to intensify along pre-existing outflow boundaries by late
afternoon and develop/move into IA. Large CAPE in this region
(MLCAPE > 4000 J/kg) and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a
risk of supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through
the evening hours.

...IA/IL/IN/MI/OH...
A remnant outflow boundary is also tracking eastward across the MS
river into northern IL. The air mass ahead of this boundary is very
moist and unstable with dewpoints in the mid 70s and peak diurnal
CAPE values expected to exceed 3500 J/kg. Models differ on
convective evolution of storms that form in this regime, but there
is potential for an upscale-growing MCS producing a swath of wind
damage from northern IL into parts of IN/MI and northwest OH this
evening.

...NY/PA/NJ...
Hot and humid conditions are present across much of the northeast
states today, with full sunshine leading to steep low-level lapse
rates and moderate CAPE. It is unclear how many thunderstorms will
form in this region today given weak forcing. However, the
environment is conditionally favorable for damaging winds in any
convective clusters that can persist.

...TN Valley/Southern Appalachians...
A widespread moist and unstable air mass will aid in the development
of disorganized and slow-moving thunderstorms again this afternoon
and early evening. Weak winds aloft suggest chaotic storm
evolutions, but the strongest cells will pose a risk of locally
damaging winds gusts and small hail throughout the area.

..Hart/Halbert.. 07/03/2026


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SPC Jul 3, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage and large hail are expected from parts of
Nebraska into Iowa today. Isolated to scattered severe storms are
also possible extending eastward from the northern/central Plains
into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.

...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley...
Several convective clusters are ongoing across the region this
morning, including one over western NE/northwest KS, another over
SD, and another over IA/southern MN. Evolution of these clusters and
their respective outflows will likely play a role in the location,
timing, and intensity of thunderstorms later this afternoon and
evening. Currently the outflow from the southern MN/IA cluster arcs
from east-central IA back southwestward through extreme southwest IA
and far southeast NE before intersecting the outflow from the
western NE/northwest KS cluster (which continues into northwest KS).
Much of the guidance suggests airmass recovery occurs north of this
outflow. Precipitation and associated cloud cover are currently in
place over western/central NE, but this cluster and its cloud cover
are quickly eroding from the west, matching trends within the
guidance and suggesting that there should be sufficient time for
airmass recovery across NE.

Strong to very strong buoyancy is anticipated south of the remnant
outflow boundary, fostered by temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s
and dewpoints in the upper 60s (perhaps even the low 70s).
Thunderstorm development is forecast along this boundary, with the
initial, more cellular storms capable of large to isolated very
large hail. Strong downbursts are possible as well.

Late afternoon thunderstorm development is possible farther west
from western SD into the NE Panhandle as well, fostered by a
combination of low-level convergence and modest large-scale forcing
for ascent. Less buoyancy is forecast here versus farther east, but
it will still be sufficient for robust updrafts, particularly across
NE where moist easterly low-level flow is anticipated. Moderate
vertical shear will likely support an initial supercell mode, with
large to very large hail and damaging gusts possible. A brief
tornado is also possible.

Eventual upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters is expected
towards the evening, especially as the low-level jet increases in
the evening. Potential will also increase for a few significant
gusts of 75+ mph, particularly from eastern Nebraska into western
Iowa.

...Lower Great Lakes/Northern Ohio Valley into the northern
Mid-Atlantic...
A pair of convectively augmented vorticity maxima, one over IA and
the other entering southern Lower MI, are forecast to progress
eastward within the moderate westerly flow aloft extending across
the region. Very warm and moist low-levels will support airmass
destabilization ahead of these vorticity maxima, resulting in
afternoon thunderstorms. Deep layer shear will be relatively weak
but the moderately unstable and moist air mass will still support
the potential for a few strong/severe clusters capable of damaging
wind gusts.

...Western KS into OK/TX Panhandles...
Isolated supercell development will be possible near the dry line
forecast to extend from western Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandle. Forcing will be weak in this region, but moderate
buoyancy and vertical shear could result in a few instances of large
hail and severe wind gusts.

...TN Valley and northern GA...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across portions
of the Tennessee Valley into northern Georgia this afternoon. Flow
across the region will be weak but a very moist and unstable airmass
amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support potential for
wet downbursts.

..Mosier/Dean.. 07/03/2026


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SPC Jul 3, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage and large hail are expected from parts of
Nebraska into Iowa Friday. Isolated to scattered severe storms are
also possible extending eastward from the northern/central Plains
into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
The flow across the central US will modify today, becoming more
zonal as height rises begin across the southern Rockies. Upper-level
ridging will continue across the eastern US. A surface front will
extend across the northern High Plains into the Midwest and Upper
Great Lakes. Several clusters of thunderstorms are expected to
develop in the vicinity of this boundary. Additional scattered
thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northeast to
the Mid-Atlantic and across the Tennessee Valley and northern
Georgia.

...Northern/Central Plains...
Modest westerly flow will remain across the northern/central Plains
this afternoon, with a shortwave trough rotating through the flow
across the Dakotas into Minnesota by the evening. Scattered
thunderstorm activity is expected along and near a surface boundary
extending from the western Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. A
reservoir of moderate to strong instability will remain amid a plume
of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Initially, a few supercells
are likely, particularly near the Black Hills in South Dakota and
across the central Dakotas. Deep layer shear around 30-40 kts and
aforementioned steep lapse rates will support potential for large to
very large hail. Eventual upscale growth into one or more bowing
clusters is expected towards the evening, especially as forcing for
ascent increases with the shortwave and increasing low-level jet in
the evening. Potential will also increase for a few significant
gusts 75+ mph, particularly across northeastern Nebraska into
western Iowa.

Additional isolated supercell development will be possible near the
surface trough and dry line from western Kansas into the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. Forcing will be weaker in this region, but
a few instances of large hail and severe wind will be possible.

...Midwest to the Lower Great Lakes and portions of the
Northeast/Mid Atlantic...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible across the
Midwest into the Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley in the vicinity of
residual outflow from overnight activity. Deep layer shear/flow will
be relatively weak but a moderately unstable and moist air mass will
support potential for a few clusters which produce swaths of
damaging wind.

A corridor of more favorable mid-level flow around 40-50 kts will
exist along the periphery of the ridge across the Northeast to the
northern Mid-Atlantic. Deep layer shear around 30-40 kts may support
one or more organized clusters with damaging wind potential into the
afternoon/early evening.

...TN Valley and northern GA...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across portions
of the Tennessee Valley into northern Georgia this afternoon. Flow
across the region will be negligible but a very moist and unstable
air mass amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support
potential for wet downbursts.

..Thornton/Moore.. 07/03/2026


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SPC Jul 3, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST IOWA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are still possible from the northern Plains
into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions this evening. More isolated
severe storms will be possible across the Central High Plains.

...High Plains into the Midwest...
Several clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of the
Dakotas into northern Iowa and southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois.
Across the western Dakotas, clusters of multi-cell and supercells
are ongoing. Given moderate instability and some supercellular
modes, large hail to very large hail and damaging wind will continue
to be a threat through the evening. Additional thunderstorms may
move out of Montana and or southern Canada through the evening with
additional chances for large hail and damaging wind.

A cluster across southeastern South Dakota moving into
Minnesota/Iowa has a history of producing significant gusts 90-100
mph. More recent observations have been around 60-70 mph. It is
likely that the damaging wind potential will continue downstream for
the next couple of hours, with potential for additional development
along the trailing outflow into northern Nebraska later this
evening. The 00z sounding from OAX sampled a large cape profile with
steep low to mid-level lapse rates.Confidence in exact evolution
remains low but some CAM guidance does suggest a secondary MCS
structure may move eastward later this evening across northern Iowa.
Given the large MLCAPE gradient extending across southern South
Dakota into northern Iowa and a continued reservoir of steep low to
mid-level lapse rates, this may pose additional potential for
damaging wind through the evening.

...Central High Plains...
A few isolated supercells are ongoing across portions of eastern
Colorado, southern Nebraska, and western Kansas. These have had
occasional stronger MESH cores around 2 inches. The 00z sounding
from DDC sampled strong instability and steep low to mid-level lapse
rates amid large dew point depressions within the near surface
profile. Given strong deep layer shear, inverted v soundings, and
moderate to strong instability, these supercells will continue to
pose a risk for large to very large hail and severe wind.

...Northeast...
A line of thunderstorms is sagging southward out of Quebec. These
may pose some potential for a few instances of strong to severe wind
through the evening. See MCD#1455 for more information.

..Thornton.. 07/03/2026


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