SPC Jul 8, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO...FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHWEST
KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains, and from
the Missouri Valley into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated
severe gusts may also occur from the northern Great Basin into the
northern High Plains and from North Carolina into southern Virginia.

...Central High Plains across the central Plains and Mid MO Valley
into the Upper Midwest...
Early-morning surface analysis reveals a cold front extending
southwestward from north-central MN to a low southeast SD, where the
front then becomes oriented more westerly across southern SD before
arcing back northwestward across northeast WY and central MT. This
front is expected to make gradual southward/southeastward progress
today, before becoming more diffuse under the influence of storm
outflow late in the period. Ample low-level moisture will be place
ahead of this front by the late afternoon, with dewpoints likely
ranging from the low/mid 60s across central NE into the upper
60s/low 70s across northern IA, southern MN, and northern WI. The
strongest buoyancy is expected from eastern NE into
western/northwestern IA, where the best overlap between the higher
surface dewpoints and the eastern extent of the steep mid-level
lapse rates exists.

Thunderstorm development is expected first from the
eastern/northeastern IA into the Upper Midwest, where convergence
along the front will be augmented by large-scale ascent attendant to
an approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. A few stronger
updrafts are possible in this region, but more modest buoyancy
should limit updraft persistence, with a quick trend towards a more
outflow-dominant storm mode. Stronger buoyancy will support more
robust updrafts from central IA western into central NE, although
modest deep-layer vertical shear should limit organization in this
area as well. Stronger updrafts could contribute to stronger
downdrafts, as well as isolated hail, with a slightly higher overall
severe potential here than areas farther northeast.

A somewhat separate regime is anticipated farther west across the
central High Plains. Here, moist, post-frontal, upslope flow will
result in moderate buoyancy across the NE Panhandle into eastern WY,
supporting airmass destabilization and late afternoon thunderstorm
development. Moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear, resulting
from easterly low-level flow beneath moderate northwesterly flow
aloft, is anticipated over this region as well. An initially
cellular mode is likely, with some large hail possible, with fairly
quick upscale growth likely. High cloud bases atop a warm and deeply
mixed boundary layer will support strong outflow, which, when
combined with the strong deep-layer shear, could result in one or
more organized bowing segments.

These two regimes come together across south-central
NE/north-central KS overnight, amid a strengthen low-level jet, but
predictability on the overall convective evolution is limited.
Seemingly some severe potential could linger across
south-central/southeast NE into north-central/northeast KS
overnight.

...Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to progress through the
northern periphery of the upper ridging in place over the Four
Corners vicinity. Mid-level moisture associated with this wave
coupled with strong heating will result in airmass destabilization
and the development of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms.
High storm bases atop a deeply mixed boundary layer will support the
potential for damaging gusts with the stronger storms.

...North Carolina/Southern Virginia..
A very moist airmass will be in place today from the Mid-Atlantic
southward into the Carolinas. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper
70s F will contribute to an axis of moderate to strong instability
across parts of North Carolina and southern Virginia. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will develop in the foothills of the
Appalachians, with the storms moving eastward into the lower
elevations during the afternoon. The instability combined with steep
low-level lapse rates will support an isolated wind-damage threat.

...Southern AZ...
Increased mid-level moisture will support thunderstorm development
across the higher terrain of eastern AZ during the afternoon.
Westward drift of the upper ridge will result in modest easterly
mid-level flow over the region, with some potential for the
thunderstorms to progress westward into the lower elevations during
the late afternoon. A few strong gusts are possible but uncertainty
regarding coverage precludes introducing any probabilities with this
outlook.

..Mosier/Thornton.. 07/08/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TTQ75p

SPC Jul 8, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains, and from
the Missouri Valley into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated
severe gusts may also occur in parts of the northern High Plains and
from North Carolina into southern Virginia.

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Upper Mississippi Valley...
At mid-levels, heights will fall today across much of the
north-central U.S. as a subtle shortwave trough moves
east-southeastward across the region. At the surface, a cold front
will advance southeastward into the central Plains and mid Missouri
Valley by afternoon. Along and ahead of the front, surface dewpoints
will range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. As surface
temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop along this
west-southwest to east-northeast corridor. Low-level convergence
will be maximized along and near the front, which will be the
primary focus for convective initiation. Scattered thunderstorms
will form in the afternoon and move east-southeastward across the
instability corridor, with convective development continuing through
much of the evening. The instability, combined with moderate
deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates, will support a
threat for severe wind gusts. The potential for severe wind will be
greatest with any line segment that can become sustained and
organized. Although there is some uncertainty concerning where the
greatest threat will be, it seems possible that a damaging wind
swath could occur in parts of southern Nebraska this evening, where
a 30 percent wind probability has been added.

Further northeast into central Iowa and south-central Wisconsin,
convective coverage is expected to be a bit more widely spaced.
However, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for a severe threat as
low-level lapse rates and instability become maximized late this
afternoon. The primary threat will be for severe wind gusts, with
the threat being associated with short intense line segments.

...Northern High Plains...
At the surface, a lee trough will develop today from eastern Wyoming
into eastern Montana. Along and near the trough, surface dewpoints
in the 50s F will contribute to the development of moderate
instability by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be
relatively weak, low-level convergence near the trough will aid
convective initiation. Thunderstorms will also develop in the higher
terrain and move eastward into the lower elevations. The
instability, combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep low
to mid-level lapse rates will likely support a potential for
isolated severe gusts.

...North Carolina/Southern Virginia.
At the surface, a very moist airmass will be in place today from the
Mid-Atlantic southward into the Carolinas. Surface dewpoints in the
mid to upper 70s F will contribute to an axis of moderate to strong
instability across parts of North Carolina and southern Virginia.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop in the foothills of
the Appalachians, with the storms moving eastward into the lower
elevations during the afternoon. The instability combined with steep
low-level lapse rates will support an isolated wind-damage threat.

..Broyles/Moore.. 07/08/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TTPqv7

SPC Jul 8, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts potentially above 75 mph, and
isolated large hail are expected across parts of the northern Plains
and upper Mississippi Valley from this evening into the early
overnight period.

...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
At mid-levels, a subtle shortwave trough will move eastward across
the northern Plains this evening. At the surface, a low will move
eastward into eastern South Dakota as a cold front advances
southward across central and southern South Dakota. The front will
provide a focus for convective development this evening, although
scattered storms are also expected across parts of the post-frontal
airmass. Surface dewpoints over most of South Dakota are in the 60s
F, with lower to mid 70s F over south-central Minnesota. Along and
near the moist axis, the RAP has MLCAPE ranging from 2500 J/kg near
Rapid City to just above 3500 J/kg in far eastern South Dakota.
Short-term model forecasts suggest that a cluster of strong to
severe storms will develop near the instability axis early this
evening and grow upscale, tracking eastward across eastern South
Dakota into south-central Minnesota. Within this corridor, moderate
deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will be favorable for a
severe threat...see MCD 1536. Any short line segment that can become
organized will likely be capable of severe wind gusts and hail.
There will be potential for wind gusts above 75 mph with any line
segment that can become robust.

Further west into parts of the northern High Plains, an axis of
moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP from near Rapid City
northwestward into southeastern Montana. A cluster of strong to
severe storms is expected to develop this evening and move
southeastward along this axis of instability. Moderate deep-layer
shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support supercells
capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. As convective
coverage increases, a potential for severe wind gusts is also
expected with any short line segment that can become intense...see
MCD 1535.

..Broyles.. 07/08/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TTPfrP

SPC Jul 7, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA....

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of large hail
and severe wind gusts are possible from the northern High Plains
into parts of the Upper Midwest today into tonight. Isolated severe
storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are possible this
afternoon and evening from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the
Carolinas, the Sabine River Valley, parts of the Great Basin, and
southeast Arizona.

...Dakotas/MN...
A broad upper ridge is present today over much of the Rockies and
Plains states, with moderately strong winds aloft topping the ridge
over the Dakotas. A surface boundary will lift slightly northward
and extend from the Black Hills region into western MN by evening,
with a very unstable air mass expected to the south. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop across southeast MT/eastern WY by late
afternoon ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. These storms
will intensify as they build into the greater moisture/instability
in place across SD. Sufficient deep-layer shear and convergence near
the boundary will promote supercell storms capable of large hail and
damaging wind gusts. If sufficient organization can occur with
these storms, there is some risk of a linear MCS tracking eastward
through the evening across northern SD/southern ND into western MN
with a risk of damaging winds.

Ongoing storms over northeast SD may also persist, along with new
development this afternoon along the boundary. These storms could
also pose a risk of damaging winds and hail.

...VA/NC...
Visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloud cover over
northern/central VA, but mostly clear skies from southern VA into
NC. Areas of strong heating will again be at risk of strong storms
producing occasional damaging wind gusts this afternoon.

...TX/LA...
Strong afternoon thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon in
vicinity of a weak upper trough over the ArkLaTex region. Locally
damaging wind gusts are the main risk.

..Hart/Squitieri.. 07/07/2026


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


http://dlvr.it/TTPVcT