Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large hail are
expected today across parts of northern New York and northern New
England. Additional storms with isolated severe gusts and hail will
be possible in parts of the northern Rockies and northern High
Plains.
...Northeast...
At mid-levels today, a fast-moving shortwave trough and an
associated jet streak will move southeastward across southeastern
Canada. At the surface, very moist air with surface dewpoints in the
70s F will be in place over much of the Northeast. As surface
temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over much of
the region. By afternoon, an axis of low-level convergence is
forecast to develop along a pre-frontal trough, from near Lake
Ontario northeastward into far southern Quebec. This zone will be a
focus for convective initiation this afternoon. During the mid to
late afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form near the surface
trough and move southeastward into northern New York and northern
New England.
As the mid-level jet approaches from the northwest, the entrance
region of jet will enhance lift and deep-layer shear across much of
the Northeast. By late this afternoon, RAP forecast soundings over
northern New England have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with MLCAPE
peaking in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range. The environment will support
a mixed mode with supercells and organized line segments possible.
0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to peak near 7 C/km, which will
support a threat for severe wind gusts, especially with intense line
segments. A few severe gusts above 70 mph may occur. The potential
for large hail and tornadoes will be most likely with supercells.
The threat for supercells will be greatest from northern New York
into northern Vermont and northwest Maine, where mid-level lapse
rates are forecast to be near 7 C/km. Within this corridor, 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity is forecast to be in the 250 to 300 m2/s2
range, suggesting potential for a strong tornado.
...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains...
At mid-levels today, flow will be southwesterly across the
northwestern U.S. At the surface, upslope flow will be in place from
the northern High Plains to the Rockies. Surface dewpoints will be
in the 60s F along an east-to-west moist axis, which is forecast
across eastern and central Montana. As surface temperatures warm, a
pocket of instability will develop near the moist axis. Thunderstorm
formation will be possible along this east-to-west zone and in the
higher terrain of western and central Montana. By late afternoon,
RAP forecast soundings in central Montana have MLCAPE around 2000
J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 35 knots. In addition, mid-level lapse
rates are forecast to be steep in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This will
support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts and hail.
..Broyles/Halbert.. 07/14/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TTWt2m
