SPC Aug 16, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible this
afternoon and early evening over parts of the Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will also be
possible across the Front Range and central/northern High Plains.

...Upper Ohio Valley to Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...
An MCV persists at midday across far southeast Michigan and northern
Ohio, with some recent uptick in convection ahead of it across
northern Ohio. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1195 for short-term
details regarding a further increase in severe potential through
early/mid-afternoon within this regional corridor.

While storms have weakened, showers/cloud cover remain prevalent
near/east of the Appalachians at midday across the Mid-Atlantic
region. This will tend to limit/delay destabilization in many areas
(especially with north-northeastward extent). That said, air mass
recovery/advection is expected from the west, with ample upstream
clearing per visible satellite imagery across the Cumberland Plateau
into parts of the Allegheny Plateau. Pending the timing/location of
destabilization, some terrain/lee trough-related development may
diurnally occur, although the most prevalent/more certain scenario
may be for potentially severe storms to spread into the region this
evening. Damaging winds will be the most common hazard regionally,
although a tornado could occur, attributable to MCV-enhanced flow
and/or with any storms interacting with the effective warm front
across the Mid-Atlantic region.

...Middle Mississippi Valley including Missouri/Illinois...
An MCV over the Nebraska/Kansas/Iowa/Missouri border vicinity late
this morning will likely continue generally eastward, while probably
largely maintaining its related belt of enhanced mid-level flow as
observed from regional WSR-88D VWP data. A key downstream
uncertainty is the midday persistence of weak convection across
eastern Missouri into west/southwest Illinois, and that mid-level
lapse rates are rather poor to its north aside from some lingering
cloud cover.

More certain/greater destabilization may occur to the west across
Missouri, with the southeastward-advancing front being a focus for
renewed thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening
amidst moderate/locally strong buoyancy. Deep-layer shear will tend
to be limited to around 30 kt in most areas, although somewhat
stronger MCV-related winds aloft may support upwards of 35-40 kt
effective shear for any storms across northern Missouri into
west-central/southwest Illinois. Bouts of damaging winds are the
most likely hazard regionally.

...Front Range/Raton Mesa and northern/central High Plains...
A relatively similar pattern/scenario as prior few days will
continue regionally, except a somewhat more northward-extent of the
severe risk (such as Black Hills vicinity) and a trend toward a more
northerly component to the flow aloft across the north-central High
Plains. At least widely scattered thunderstorm development is
expected into mid/late afternoon spanning the Front Range/Raton Mesa
vicinity northward across eastern Wyoming/southeast Montana and the
Black Hills vicinity. In the presence of upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE, moderate vertical shear (30-40 kt) could support a few
supercells capable of severe hail. Isolated damaging winds will be
possible. This includes the most probable zone for gradual
upscale-growing linear cluster(s) across the south-central High
Plains/Raton Mesa vicinity including southeast Colorado/northeast
New Mexico toward the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and far southwest
Kansas. A couple of southeastward-moving thunderstorm clusters
capable of wind/damage may also emerge this evening out of the Black
Hills vicinity/western Nebraska.

..Guyer/Chalmers.. 08/16/2026


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SPC Aug 16, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...MID-ATLANTIC...AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible from this
afternoon into early evening over parts of the Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will also be
possible in parts of the central High Plains.

...Lower MO Valley through the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
Satellite and regional radar imagery shows several vorticity maxima
embedded within the moderate westerly flow aloft that extends from
the central Plains across the OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic.
The strongest vorticity maximum is currently moving through
north-central KS and south-central NE, while more subtle maxima
exist across western IL, southwestern Lower MI/far northern IN, and
western PA. Each of these features will likely contribute to showers
and thunderstorms later today. The most consequential of these
storms will likely occur in tandem with the western IL and
southwestern Lower MI waves as they interact with a moist and
diurnally destabilized airmass from the middle OH Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic. Airmass destabilization appears likely by the early
afternoon, with renewed thunderstorm development anticipated from
southeast Lower MI into southern IN. Moderate vertical shear will be
in place, supporting a predominantly multicellular mode. Mid-level
winds may increase slightly throughout the afternoon, and a
supercell or two is possible over southern OH. A trend towards
clustering and the development of linear segments is anticipated
over time, with damaging gusts as the primary risk throughout the
day.

These storms will continue eastward across WV into Mid-Atlantic
during the late afternoon/early evening. Moderate buoyancy will
support storm persistence and the potential for continued damaging
gusts. Additional thunderstorm development is possible ahead of
these clusters in areas of low-level convergence during the
afternoon. Moderate vertical shear could support a few more
organized storms, with water-loaded downbursts as the primary severe
risk. A tornado or two is also possible, particularly across
northern VA where southerly surface winds could result in adequate
low-level hodograph curvature.

Farther west (across the Lower MO Valley), the well-defined
vorticity maximum currently over north-central KS/southern-central
NE is forecast to be east of the region by the late afternoon, but
airmass destabilization in its wake is uncertain. If the airmass can
recover, additional thunderstorms are likely along a cold front
moving into the region this evening. Strong buoyancy will support
robust updrafts, but modest vertical shear will keep storm
organization limited. If thunderstorms form, a few strong gusts are
possible across this region this evening.

...Northern/Central High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorm development in anticipated this afternoon
across the northern and central High Plains. Thunderstorms over the
northern High Plains will be supported by low-level convergence
along the western edge of the moist airmass over the Plains.
Moderate vertical shear could support a few supercells capable of
hail and strong gusts, but modest buoyancy should keep the overall
severe threat isolated.

Thunderstorm development farther south across the central High
Plains will result from a combination of moist low-level easterlies,
westerly flow aloft and orographic effects. Here, more cellular
development over the high terrain and immediate foothills could pose
a risk for large hail before transitioning towards more linear
structures with strong gusts as the primary severe risk.

..Mosier/Dean.. 08/16/2026


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SPC Aug 16, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible from this
afternoon into early evening over parts of the Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will also be
possible in parts of the central High Plains.

...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic...
A mid-level shortwave trough, embedded in west-northwesterly flow,
will move through the Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the shortwave
trough, a moist airmass will be in place from the Ohio Valley
southeastward to the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Surface dewpoints along
this west-northwest to east-southeast corridor will be in the 70s F,
which will contribute to the development of moderate instability by
midday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the
Ohio Valley, as a pre-frontal trough moves into the central
Appalachians. These two features will focus convective development
during the day. A complex of storms appears likely to form over the
higher terrain in West Virginia, and move east-southeastward into
the lower elevations of Virginia and Maryland during the mid to late
afternoon.

RAP forecast soundings from West Virginia into the Virginia in the
late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. Some
directional shear is present in the low-levels and 0-3 km lapse
rates are steep approaching 7 C/km. This environment will support a
wind-damage threat with organized multicells. Isolated supercells
with severe gusts will also be possible. The threat may continue
into the early evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

Further west into parts of the lower Ohio Valley, a very moist
airmass will also be in place. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F will
contribute to the development of moderate instability. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form along zones of low-level
convergence during the afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will
be weaker further west, the thermodynamic environment will be
sufficient for isolated severe gusts.

...Central High Plains...
At mid-levels, a ridge will move through the Intermountain West
today as flow remains westerly over much of the central U.S. As
surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms will develop in
the foothills of the central Rockies. These storms will move
eastward into the lower elevations of eastern Colorado and western
Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings across the central High Plains by
late afternoon have moderate instability (MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg),
0-6 km shear near 35 knots and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates in the 7 to
7.5 C/km range. This should support a threat for large hail and
isolated severe gusts with rotating storms and organized line
segments. The threat will likely persist into the evening across
parts of the central High Plains.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 08/16/2026


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SPC Aug 16, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be
possible this evening across parts of the central Plains. Isolated
severe wind gusts may also occur this evening into tonight across
parts of the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys.

...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over
eastern Colorado within west-southwesterly flow. Ahead of this
feature, a moist airmass is present across the central Plains.
Surface dewpoints in eastern Colorado and western Kansas are in the
60s F, and the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. Along
the western edge of moderate instability, scattered thunderstorms
are ongoing from western Nebraska southward into the Oklahoma
Panhandle. In addition to moderate instability, RAP forecast
soundings early this evening downstream from the storms near Dodge
City and Hill City and have 0-6 km shear around 30 knots with 0-3 km
lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. The steep low to mid-level lapse rates
are evident on the Dodge City 00Z sounding. This environment should
support an isolated severe threat for several more hours this
evening as the storms move across the central Plains. Severe wind
gusts and hail will be the primary threats...see MCD 1992. During
the overnight period, a convective cluster or line segment is
forecast to move east-northeastward across northern Kansas and
southern Nebraska, potentially reaching far northwest Missouri late
in the period. Isolated severe gusts will be possible with these
storms.

...Ohio Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over
the Ohio Valley within west-northwesterly flow. At the surface, a
moist axis is located from central Illinois southeastward into
eastern Kentucky, along which surface dewpoints are in the 70s F.
Near the moist axis, the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg
range. To the east and northeast of the strongest instability,
scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing ahead of the shortwave
trough in western Ohio and northern Kentucky. The Wilmington, Ohio
00Z sounding has 0-6 km shear around 30 knots with a surface
dewpoint in the mid 70s F, and precipitable water near 2.15 inches.
This moist and unstable environment should support a potential for
isolated severe wet downbursts with the stronger multicells early
this evening.

..Broyles.. 08/16/2026


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