Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...WYOMING...AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through this evening
across parts of the southern/central Plains, with large hail and
severe winds possible. A more focused corridor of tornado potential
may exist this afternoon/evening across northern Oklahoma and
southern Kansas, where a strong tornado may occur.
...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was the addition of an Enhanced
risk (driven by CIG1 wind) across parts of western OK, the eastern
TX Panhandle, and far south-central KS. Thunderstorms are evolving
across the OK Panhandle and vicinity, ahead of a surface low/triple
point. Current expectation is for this activity and additional
storms to track east-southeastward through a hot/well-mixed air mass
-- favorable for strengthening/expanding cold pools with time.
Around 40 kt of effective shear should promote a mix of organized
clusters and supercells tracking east-southeastward into
increasingly rich boundary-layer moisture and a nocturnally
strengthening low-level jet. This evolution should favor a swath of
severe/damaging wind gusts (some upwards of 75 mph or greater).
A focused corridor of relatively greater tornado potential is
possible across parts of southwest KS into northwest OK -- along a
recovering outflow boundary. There was some consideration for higher
tornado probabilities here, though confidence in the exact corridor
was too low for the upgrade at this time.
Elsewhere, only minor adjustments were made to the severe
probabilities based on the latest convective and environmental
trends.
..Weinman.. 06/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026/
...Southern/Central Plains and Ozarks...
Strong convection continues at midday across south-central Kansas
into northern Oklahoma, augmenting a front that will continue to
settle south-southeastward toward the Texas Panhandle and western
Oklahoma by this evening. Some of this convection has been
organized/bowing on a small scale this morning and some diurnal
intensification could occur through peak heating as it progresses
southeastward, but the continued influence of proximal rain-cooled
air casts some uncertainty regarding intensity/peak risk timing.
The most likely scenario will be for the possibility of deeper
convective development later this afternoon on the west-southwest
flank of these lingering early day storms, where outflow
modifies/intercepts the surface front, and in north and east
proximity to a Panhandles surface low. Additional post-frontal
low-level upslope flow-related potentially severe storms are also
expected across southeast Colorado near the Front Range
southeastward into the Panhandle beginning mid/late afternoon.
This anticipated development later today is expected to be focused
in a narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability from
southeast Colorado east-southeastward into far southern Kansas and
northern Oklahoma. With strong deep-layer shear expected, initial
supercells should pose a threat for large hail, severe wind gusts
and potentially a tornado risk. But, convective mode will probably
tend to become mixed/messy quickly, as thunderstorms interact/merge
with each other. Low-level shear is forecast to markedly increase
near the surface boundary later today as a southerly low-level jet
strengthens. Resultant elongated/curved hodographs support the
potential for tornadoes, especially with any thunderstorms that can
remain at least semi-discrete. And given the enhanced effective SRH
near the boundary, a strong tornado appears possible if a supercell
mode can be maintained.
Higher-based convection will develop farther south into the
southern High Plains this afternoon, where a more deeply mixed
airmass suggests a greater threat for scattered severe/damaging
winds. But, some hail could also occur with the stronger cores. This
activity should tend to cluster and spread east-southeastward across
northwest Texas, the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, and eventually into
western Oklahoma this evening, while continuing to pose mainly a
severe wind threat before eventually weakening.
...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and New York...
50-60 kt mid-level westerly flow will spread eastward across the
Midwest/Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians through this
evening as an upper-level trough moves eastward over the Great
Lakes. A weak surface low should also develop eastward over the
lower Great Lakes, with a cold front advancing east-southeastward
across the Midwest/Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints generally range in
the 50s to low 60s F ahead of the front. Coupled with poor mid lapse
rates aloft and ongoing cloudiness, instability that develops by
this afternoon may tend to remain somewhat limited. Even so, strong
deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level jet will aid in
updraft organization, with a mix of multicell clusters and possibly
some marginal supercell structures developing this afternoon
along/ahead of the front. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds
both appear possible, and a tornado or two may also occur across
parts of Ohio into western/central Pennsylvania and western New York
where slightly stronger low-level flow and related shear should
exist. A somewhat higher/more focused severe potential appears to
exist across central/eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania from
mid-afternoon through early evening.
...Utah/Wyoming/Montana and far eastern Idaho...
Similar to yesterday, fairly high-based showers and thunderstorms
should develop this afternoon across the eastern Great Basin. With a
well-mixed boundary layer forecast with daytime heating, the main
threat with most of this activity should be isolated severe winds
with outflow-dominant convection as it spreads from Utah into
Wyoming this afternoon and evening. Have introduced a wind-related
categorical Slight risk for the potential of semi-organized storms
as a mid-level speed max interfaces with an unstable/well-mixed
boundary layer across Wyoming. Otherwise, occasional hail may also
exist farther north in southeast Idaho, Wyoming, and parts of
Montana, where cooler temperatures aloft, stronger mid-level
flow/deep-layer shear, and pockets of greater instability should
support more robust convection.
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