SPC Jun 2, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0858 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OZARKS/MID-SOUTH...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are still
expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central
Plains. Scattered strong to severe wind gusts are also possible
within the Ozarks and portions of the Mid-South.

...01Z Update...
Notable upper-level low is promote severe convection within the
Central High Plains this evening. This activity with continue for a
few more hours. The most organized convection has become more linear
in southwestern Kansas. This will be the focal point for severe wind
gusts this evening/overnight. Some of this risk may eventually
spread in to northern Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe storms
are also ongoing in Arkansas/northern Mississippi. These storms will
be capable of large hail and damaging winds over the next few hours.
The primary question remains how long the threat will continue. Some
models still hint at linear organization occurring later tonight,
but confidence is low as to where this will occur. Strongly forced
convection may produce severe gusts in parts of eastern
Montana/western North Dakota. A remaining pocket of enhanced shear
and buoyancy is evident near the SC/GA border. A subtle shortwave
may allow a cluster of storms to move south and east. Isolated
damaging winds would be possible with this activity.

..Wendt.. 06/02/2026


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SPC Jun 1, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE
TN VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected
this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains.
Scattered to numerous strong to severe wind gusts will also be
possible from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.

...Mid-South into the Southeast...
An MCS is currently progressing generally southeastward, with
preceding outflow arcing from southeast MO through far northwest TN.
Some brief intensification was noted along this outflow, although
updraft strength continues to be somewhat transient. General
expectation is for this pattern of brief intensification to continue
for the next hour or two, before building instability along the
western edge of the outflow results in updraft/downdraft cycles
strong enough to produce strong to severe gusts. However, given
limited deep-layer shear, overall updraft organization will likely
remain transient.

Additional new development is anticipated farther west during the
afternoon from south-central MO into northern AR (and perhaps
western TN and northern MS). Dewpoints in the 70s amid afternoon
high temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s will support very strong
buoyancy, with MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. This buoyancy will
support robust updrafts, but weak shear will limit storm
organization, contributing to an outflow-dominant, multicellular
mode. Even with limited organization, the updraft/downdraft cycles
should be strong enough for widespread strong/severe storms capable
of damaging wind gusts and some isolated hail.

The storms, whether with the ongoing cluster or newer development
farther west, may spread as far south as central MS/AL during the
evening before weakening.

...High Plains...
Morning surface analysis placed a low over southeast CO, with moist
easterly/southeasterly flow throughout the eastern and northern
periphery of this low. Associated low-level moisture advection is
anticipated throughout the day, but strong boundary-layer mixing is
expected to result in afternoon dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s.
Even so, this modest low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level
lapse rates will foster moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE likely around
1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is
anticipated from southeast WY into the foothills of central CO by
mid-afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear should support supercells
capable of large to isolated very large hail early in the convective
cycle, but a trend towards a more outflow-dominant structure leads
to bowing segments capable of strong to severe gusts. Isolated gusts
over 65 kt are possible. Some upscale growth into an organized MCS
is possible with one or more of these bowing segments this evening
as the low-level jet increases and the clusters encounter greater
low-level moisture.

Isolated damaging gusts are also possible with any development along
the dryline in TX.

..Mosier/Weinman.. 06/01/2026


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SPC Jun 1, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0711 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected
Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains.
Scattered to numerous strong to severe wind gusts will also be
possible from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.

...Southeast States...
An occasionally severe MCS is ongoing this morning south of STL.
This activity may persist through much of the day, tracking
southeastward along the low-level moisture/instability gradient into
western KY/middle TN and eventually north GA. Moderate CAPE values,
30+ knots of mid-level steering flow, and mesoscale organization of
the MCS will pose a risk of strong/damaging winds along this
corridor.

Along the western flank of this MCS, a hot/humid air mass will
develop from AR into parts of TN/MS/AL with temperatures in the 90s
and dewpoints in the 70s. This will yield afternoon MLCAPE values
approaching 4000 J/kg. The consensus of model guidance suggests
scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon, with outflows
congealing and spreading south/southwestward though a steep
lapse-rate environment. The result will be the potential for rather
widespread strong/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and
some hail. These storms may spread as far south as central MS/AL
during the evening before weakening.

...High Plains...
Easterly low-level winds are present this morning over much of
eastern CO/western KS. This will maintain an influx of moisture and
aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms over the foothills
of central CO by mid-afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear will
pose a risk of supercells capable of large/very large hail. As the
storms move/develop eastward into western KS this evening, supercell
structures may persist, but upscale growth into bowing clusters is
also expected. This will increase the risk of severe wind gusts as
well. The easterly low-level jet will also strengthen considerably
this evening across the region, enhancing low-level shear and
helicity, but in a region with high LCLs and dewpoints only around
50F.

Widely scattered severe storms are also expected to develop over
southeast WY, spreading eastward into the NE panhandle and southwest
SD with a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts.

..Hart/Kerr.. 06/01/2026


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SPC Jun 1, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected
Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains.
Scattered strong to severe wind gusts will also be possible from the
Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.

...Synopsis...
An upper low over the northern Rockies will remain roughly in place
during the period. Moderate mid-level flow will extend into the
central Rockies. Rich moisture will be present from the Ozarks into
the Mid-South/Southeast.

...Colorado into western Nebraska and western Kansas...
Moderate mid-level flow is expected to persist across the central
Rockies along the southeastern flank of the upper low. This flow
will gradually diminish into southwest Kansas. With a surface low
developing in the vicinity of the Raton Mesa, moist upslope flow
will occur within the Front Range. Storms will initially develop
within the higher terrain and progress east. Storms near the surface
low will develop by late afternoon. Initial supercells can be
expected with a large to very-large hail risk. Hail around 2 inches
is more probable in northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska where
upper-level flow will be stronger. A tornado or two will also be
possible with initial discrete storms given the backed surface winds
east of the Front Range. With time, upscale growth of activity can
be expected, particularly in Kansas where strong heating will
promote larger temperature-dewpoint spreads and steep low-level
lapse rates. Where clustering can occur, a greater severe wind
threat will develop. Given the somewhat narrow corridor of moderate
to strong buoyancy and enough deep-layer shear that may limit
duration of linear organization, confidence is low in placement of
greater wind probabilities.

...Mid-South...
Convection that is currently ongoing in eastern Kansas/western
Missouri is expected to track south and east with time. Ahead of
this activity, a reservoir of 70+ F dewpoints will exist across the
Mid-South into parts of the Southeast. Depending on the timing of
the convection, some strengthening of this activity can be expected
into the afternoon. Mid-level flow across the region will not be
overly strong, but around 30 kt of effective shear appears
reasonable. Wind probabilities were increased within the Mid-South
to account for the anticipated MCS. There still remains some
question over the timing/placement of convection early this morning.
Adjustments to the Slight risk may be needed depending on
observational trends.

...Arkansas...
Model trends show potential for convection to develop along outflow
and move into strong/extreme buoyancy in Arkansas. As in the
Mid-South, timing of when this occur will play a role in the
intensity of the activity, especially given the weaker shear with
southwestward extent. Damaging winds and isolated large hail are
possible with the strongest activity.

...Northern Plains...
Stronger mid-level flow around the upper low will be present in this
region. Moisture/buoyancy will be more limited, however. Cold
temperatures aloft will promote an isolated hail risk with storms
that develop in the surface trough.

..Wendt/Moore.. 06/01/2026


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