SPC Oct 5, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely today.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging and accompanying mid-level northwesterly flow will
dominate most of the CONUS as a pronounced mid-level trough
overspreads New England and ejects into the Atlantic today. Surface
high pressure and large-scale subsidence will overspread much of the
U.S. east of the MS River while surface troughing becomes
established across the Great Plains, but with limited moisture. The
net result will be limited thunderstorm development over much of the
CONUS. Along the Gulf Coast into FL, a few thunderstorms may develop
ahead of a diffuse frontal boundary given the presence of seasonable
low-level moisture. A couple of lightning flashes may also accompany
a few mid-level impulses over the Great Basin, Rockies, Upper MS
Valley, and northern New England in association with localized
ascent and cooler temperatures aloft.

..Squitieri/Wendt.. 10/05/2026


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SPC Oct 5, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0837 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S.
tonight.

...Synopsis...
A baroclinic zone across the Southeast U.S. continues to sag
southward as a broader upper trough tracks eastward from the Great
Lakes. Given the lack of stronger upper air support and the onset of
nocturnal cooling/decreased buoyancy, the coverage of lightning
flashes across the Southeast should continue to decrease overnight.
Similarly, a plume of marginal buoyancy over CO into NM, which has
supported some lightning flashes thus far, should also wane through
the evening.

..Squitieri.. 10/05/2026


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SPC Oct 4, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few rotating thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the
Florida Panhandle/far southern Alabama.

...20z Update...
No changes were made to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 10/04/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026/

...Florida Panhandle/Far Southern Alabama...
A nearly stationary surface front will reside across the Southeast
today, with a very moist airmass (total PWAT values of 2+ inches)
persisting along and to its south. Scattered showers/thunderstorms
will continue to develop south of the front this afternoon,
including across the northern Gulf. It is still possible that a weak
offshore surface low may form later today, with modest enhancement
to the low-level flow and effective SRH near a weak boundary draped
along or just offshore the FL Panhandle and far southern AL. Should
this occur, convection may have the potential to exhibit transient
low-level circulations mainly near the coast, with related
waterspout/brief tornado potential. However, the severe threat will
likely be constrained by poor lapse rates/weak instability, with
some guidance (namely recent RAP runs) suggesting that the modest
increase in low-level flow may not occur.


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SPC Oct 4, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few rotating thunderstorms are possible today across the coastal
Florida Panhandle.

...Florida Panhandle...
A stalled/slow-southeastward-moving surface front will reside across
the Southeast and Deep South today, with a very moist airmass
persisting along and to its south, featuring Precipitable Water
values in excess of 2 inches. Scattered showers/thunderstorms are
common early today south of the front, including across the northern
half of the Gulf. There are some guidance indications, most notably
recent NAM runs, that weak offshore surface low development may
occur today, with a related developing enhancement to the low-level
flow/SRH. Should this trend materialize, showers/thunderstorms will
have the potential to exhibit brief, transient low-level
circulations, mainly near the coast, with a related waterspout/brief
tornado potential.

..Guyer/Dean.. 10/04/2026


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