SPC Jun 7, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MONTANA...NORTHEAST WYOMING...AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail, and an
isolated tornado threat are expected this afternoon and evening
across parts of the northern Plains. An isolated threat for
tornadoes and severe wind gusts will be possible across the Ozarks
region. Strong wind gusts will also be possible in the mid
Mississippi Valley and in the Mid-Atlantic.

...MT/WY/Dakotas...
A strong upper trough currently over the northern Great Basin will
translate eastward today, with large scale forcing for ascent
overspreading much of the northern High Plains region. This will
aid cyclogenesis over eastern WY and focus a surface cold front from
south-central WY into northwest ND. Thunderstorms are expected to
form by mid-afternoon off the BigHorn mountains and build eastward
across southeast MT. While this environment will be post-frontal,
Relatively steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will
support a risk of large hail and damaging winds.
Most CAM solutions suggest thunderstorms will become more numerous
and intense as they spread into western SD this evening, maintaining
support of the ENH risk area.

...Ozarks...
A weak cut-off low continues to drift northeastward across OK this
morning. An associated band of 30-40 knot southwesterly mid-level
winds and deep moisture will lie across the Ozark plateau today,
where scattered thunderstorms are expected through the period.
Parameters are rather weak across this region, but there will be
some risk of locally damaging wind gusts or a tornado this
afternoon/evening if pockets of daytime heating can occur.

...Eastern VA/NC...
A weak surface cold front is sagging southward across central VA
this morning. A combination of strong heating and frontal forcing
will lead to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across
southeast VA and northeast NC. The strongest of these cells could
produce gusty winds.

..Hart/Wendt.. 06/07/2026


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SPC Jun 7, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging wind gusts and an
isolated tornado threat are expected today across parts of the
northern Plains. An isolated threat for tornadoes and severe wind
gusts will be possible from parts of eastern Oklahoma and
southeastern Kansas eastward across the Ozarks. Strong wind gusts
will also be possible in the mid Mississippi Valley and in the
Mid-Atlantic.

...Northern Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies
today. Ahead of the trough, mid-level heights will gradually fall
across the northern Plains. At the surface, a trough of low pressure
will deepen in the western Dakotas as a cold front advances eastward
across the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints near the surface
trough will be in the lower to mid 60s F which will enable moderate
instability to develop around midday. During the afternoon,
thunderstorms are expected to form along the front and further east
near the surface trough as low-level convergence increases. Although
cells will initially be discrete, convection is expected to grow
upscale into a line during the evening.

At 21Z, RAP forecast soundings near the surface trough in western
North Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range with
700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This environment will be
favorable for supercells with large hail. The more dominant
supercells may be capable of producing hailstones greater than 2
inches in diameter. Low-level shear may be strong enough for an
isolated tornado threat as well. Supercells will be favored in the
late afternoon when cells will likely be discrete. In the early
evening, a quick transition to linear mode is expected, although
rotating elements will continue to be possible in the line itself.
As the line develops, severe wind gusts will become more likely.
Intense parts of the line could be capable of producing wind gusts
above 75 mph.

...Eastern Oklahoma/Southeast Kansas/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi
Valley...
An upper-level trough will move northeastward across the central
U.S. today, over the top of a moist and unstable airmass. Surface
dewpoints from eastern parts of the southern and central Plains into
the mid Mississippi Valley will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F.
This will contribute to the development of moderate instability by
afternoon. Random areas of maximized low-level convergence are
expected this afternoon which will lead to the formation of
scattered thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear of 25 to 30 knots should
be sufficient for isolated supercells. Storm-relative helicity could
reach 200 m2/s2 in a few areas, which would support an isolated
tornado threat. Strong wind gusts will also be possible with this
threat extending eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. The
wind-damage threat will be greatest in the mid to late afternoon as
low-level lapse rates become steep.

...Mid-Atlantic...
An upper-level trough and an associated cold front will move across
the Mid-Atlantic today. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the
mid 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon.
Thunderstorms will develop near and to the south of the front during
the mid to late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings ahead of the front
suggest that 0-3 km lapse rates will peak near 8 C/km, which should
support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts.

..Broyles/Supinie.. 06/07/2026


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SPC Jun 7, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail are expected this
evening over parts of southern New England, and from the Ohio Valley
into the northern Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and severe wind gusts
(including gusts exceeding 75 mph) are also expected in the northern
High Plains.

...New England...
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing from New Jersey
northeastward into southern New England. This line is being
supported by large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level
shortwave trough moving eastward through the central Appalachians.
Ahead of the line, surface dewpoints across southern New England are
in the lower to mid 60s F, and the RAP is analyzing MUCAPE around
1000 J/kg. The WSR-88D VWPs at both New York and Boston have 0-6 km
shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, with 35 knots of flow 1 km above
the surface. This environment, along with steep low-level lapse
rates, evident on forecast soundings will be favorable for severe
wind gusts as the line moves eastward across southern New England
this evening.

Further north across the remainder of New England, scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing. These storms are located in the vicinity
of an instability maximum, where the RAP has MUCAPE in the 1000 to
1500 J/kg range. In addition, moderate deep-layer shear is present
which should support an isolated threat for severe gusts and hail.

...Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
The latest water vapor imagery shows west-northwesterly mid-level
flow over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold
front is located from far northern Indiana eastward to near Lake
Erie. To the south of the front, dewpoints are mostly in the lower
70s F, which is contributing to moderate instability. The RAP has
MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorms are
ongoing along and to the south of the instability axis. The
strongest deep-layer shear is analyzed from Ohio into southern
Pennsylvania, which should be the favored corridor for supercell
development. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible
with supercells. Multicells will also be capable of strong to severe
gusts.

Further west into the mid Mississippi Valley, a few strong to severe
storms will be possible near a pocket of moderate instability. Steep
low-level lapse rates will support a potential for isolated severe
gusts. Hail will also be possible.

...Northern High Plains...
Over the northern High Plains, water vapor imagery shows a mid-level
shortwave trough moving northeastward through the flow. Ahead of the
trough, a moist and unstable airmass is located across eastern
Montana and western North Dakota, where surface dewpoints are mostly
in the upper 50s and lower 60s F. Over this area, the RAP has MLCAPE
in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. Along the western edge of the
stronger instability, thunderstorms are expected to develop this
evening. The storms will move northeastward across northeastern
Montana and far northwestern North Dakota.

Forecast soundings to the northwest of Williston have 0-6 km shear
of 45 to 50 knots with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 9 C/km.
This will support the development of supercells with large hail.
Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with
the more dominant storms. In addition, low-level lapse rates will be
very steep supporting severe wind gusts. A few gusts above 75 mph
will be possible, especially if a cold pool can organize.

...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex...
A mid-level shortwave trough is currently evident on water vapor
imagery over northwest Texas, with a moist and unstable airmass in
place from central and north Texas into southern Oklahoma. Scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing along the western edge of the stronger
instability along the I-35 corridor from the northern Texas Hill
Country into the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro. Steep lapse rates and
moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support an isolated
wind-damage and hail threat for a couple more hours this evening.

Further east into the Ark-La-Tex, scattered storms are ongoing from
far eastern Oklahoma into far western Arkansas. These storms are
located along the northern edge of moderate instability, where the
RAP has MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings near Fort Smith
early this evening have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 200
m2/s2 suggesting an isolated tornado threat will exist. The tornado
threat should persist for a couple more hours.

..Broyles.. 06/07/2026


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SPC Jun 6, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM OHIO TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail are
expected this afternoon/evening from the Ohio Valley to the northern
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Large hail and severe wind
gusts are also expected in the northern High Plains late this
afternoon/evening.

...OH Valley into New England through late evening...
A surface cyclone will move eastward across southern QC this
afternoon and into northern New England tonight, in advance of a
midlevel shortwave trough over the Great Lakes. An associated
surface cold front will progress southward into the OH Valley and
southeastward to near the southern New England and northern
Mid-Atlantic coasts by early Sunday. A convective cluster is
ongoing as of midday in OH to the south of the cold front, and it
appears likely that these storms will be maintained through the
afternoon as surface temperatures continue to warm and MLCAPE
increases into the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Sufficient buoyancy, along
with steepening low-level lapse rates and gradually strengthening
midlevel flow, will result in the potential for downward momentum
transfer and wind damage from eastern OH across PA through the
afternoon (potentially reaching Philadelphia-New York City by this
evening). Otherwise, additional storm development will be possible
later this afternoon along the cold front from the OH Valley into
NY, where a mix of supercells and multicell clusters will be capable
of producing damaging winds, isolated large hail, and a tornado or
two.

...Northern High Plains late this afternoon through late evening...
A midlevel trough will continue eastward from WA/OR to the northern
Rockies, with downstream lee cyclogenesis expected across southeast
MT. Forecast soundings suggest surface temperatures will need to
reach ~90 F to weaken convective inhibition and support thunderstorm
development along the stalled front across northeast MT/northwest ND
late this afternoon/evening. Forecast wind profiles support both
multicell clusters and supercells, and steep lapse rates through
most of the column will favor both severe outflow gusts (up to 75
mph) and large hail (up to 2 inches in diameter) with a mix of
high-based supercells and multicell clusters.

...TX/OK this afternoon...
Pockets of surface heating from central/northwest TX into southern
OK, near and south of a weak surface low and MCV, will support
additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Isolated
wind damage and marginally severe hail will be the main concerns
this afternoon.

..Thompson/Chalmers.. 06/06/2026


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