SPC Mar 14, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible early this evening from parts of
eastern Pennsylvania into far southern New York, and in
south-central Florida.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move through the eastern U.S tonight.
Ahead of the trough, isolated thunderstorms will be possible from
eastern Pennsylvania into far southern New York, as the left exit
region of a very strong mid-level jet passes. Isolated thunderstorms
will also be possible early this evening within a moist and unstable
airmass in south-central Florida. No severe threat is expected in
the U.S. through daybreak on Saturday.

..Broyles.. 03/14/2026


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SPC Mar 13, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/gusty winds may occur with low-topped convection across parts
of western/central Pennsylvania and vicinity this afternoon, but
organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast.

...Western/Central Pennsylvania...
An upper trough with associated 100-125 kt mid-level jet will move
eastward today from the Great Lakes/OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.
Rather strong low/mid-level flow will overspread the upper OH Valley
into western/central PA and vicinity by this afternoon ahead of a
surface cold front. Low-level moisture is expected to remain very
limited, with surface dewpoints in the teens and 20s across this
area as of late morning/early afternoon. Some modest increase in
boundary-layer moisture and cold temperatures aloft attendant to the
upper trough may support weak MUCAPE with modest daytime heating.
One or more bands of low-topped convection may develop and pose some
threat for strong/gusty winds beyond the already enhanced background
gradient wind field. However, the meager moisture and instability
forecast this afternoon suggest that any severe risk will likely be
very isolated, so low wind probabilities have not been included with
this update.

...Central/Southern Florida Peninsula...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop this
afternoon across parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula along
and south of a remnant front. This convection may preferentially
form along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze in a weakly unstable
environment. Poor lapse rates aloft (reference 12Z KEY and 00Z MFL
observed soundings) and weak low/mid-level winds noted on recent
KAMX/KBYX VWPs will likely limit overall updraft strength and
organization. While small hail and/or gusty winds could occur with
the stronger cores that develop, the overall severe threat should
remain low.

..Gleason/Chalmers.. 03/13/2026


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SPC Mar 13, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...NY/PA...
a fast-moving and well-defined shortwave trough is indicated over
WI. This feature will track across the Great Lakes and affect parts
of PA/NY later this afternoon and evening. Strong low-level warm
advection and lift will aid in the development of showers and
isolated thunderstorms over southern Ontario and parts of
central/western NY/PA. While lightning activity will likely be
sparse, strong low-level winds and steepening mid-level lapse rates
could result in gusty showers and thunderstorms with isolated severe
winds possible.

...FL...
A few afternoon thunderstorms are expected today over central/south
FL, along and ahead of a surface cold front. Weak winds aloft
should preclude severe storms.

..Hart/Weinman.. 03/13/2026


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SPC Mar 13, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...South Florida...

Neutral-weak height rises are forecast across the FL Peninsula
during the day1 period as midlevel flow gradually weakens across low
latitudes, including the eastern Gulf basin/south FL. Latest
diagnostic data depicts a weak surface boundary extends across the
southern tip of the peninsula, and this feature is forecast to
migrate toward the western tip of the south FL Peninsula by the end
of the period. Modest daytime heating should contribute to weak
buoyancy and scattered convection is expected to develop within this
weak-flow regime. Forecast lapse rates/instability appear too weak
to warrant a meaningful risk for severe thunderstorms today.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 03/13/2026


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