SPC May 24, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
One or two evolving clusters of thunderstorms will probably be
accompanied by strong to locally severe wind gusts while spreading
from the Texas Panhandle vicinity through western North Texas this
evening into the overnight hours.

...01z Update...

...Southern Great Plains...
Considerable thunderstorm development is generally slowly spreading
eastward after initiating along the dryline, roughly from near
Clovis, NM into the Midland vicinity. However, at least somewhat
more prominent convective development continues to evolve farther to
the north, after initiating off the higher terrain to the east of
Raton and portions of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. This is
appearing to be aided by stronger, albeit still modest,
northwesterly shear near the southern fringe of the westerlies,
within otherwise quite weak westerly ambient deep-layer mean flow
around or less than 10 kt, which prevails across much of the
southern Great Plains.

CAPE is somewhat modest as well, generally on the order of 1000-1500
J/kg across the high plains, but the boundary-layer has become
deeply mixed, with surface temperature-dew point spreads around or
in excess of 30F. In the presence of the more favorable shear, the
northern cluster has already generated a notable southeastward
surging cold pool accompanied by strong to locally severe wind
gusts. It appears that this will continue southeastward across much
of the southern Texas Panhandle during the next few hours. More
uncertainty exists later as it begins to interact with the
convection spreading off the dryline, but at least some convection
allowing guidance suggests that an outflow boundary intersection
could become a focus for continuing thunderstorm development with
strong to severe gusts into portions of western North Texas late
this evening or overnight.

...Southeastern Louisiana coast...
Low severe wind probabilities are being maintained tonight, as an
outflow boundary remains a focus for thunderstorm development mostly
offshore into the vicinity of southeastern coastal areas. Aided by
inflow of high moisture content air supportive of moderately large
CAPE, ongoing activity could still organize and intensify in the
presence of modest shear and southwesterly ambient deep-layer mean
flow up to around 20 kt.

..Kerr.. 05/24/2026


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SPC May 23, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible through evening, mainly across the
Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of West Texas. Other more
isolated severe storms are possible in portions of the Southeast,
Ohio, and the central High Plains.

...20z Update...

The only changes to the 20z Day 1 Outlook are to remove
probabilities across parts of TX/LA/MS in the wake of an
northeastward-advancing MCS. Otherwise, forecast reasoning remains
similar to the previous outlook, detailed below. For more detailed
information on short term severe potential along the TX Coast and
the central High Plains, reference MCDs 838 and 839.

..Leitman.. 05/23/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026/

...Lower Mississippi Valley...
An ongoing semi-well-organized cluster of storms appears to be aided
by an MCV, and will likely continue east-northeastward today across
the ArkLaMiss and broader parts of Mississippi, to the north of more
extensive weaker convection closer to the coast in southern
Louisiana. Ample heating ahead of the cluster and steepening
low-level lapse rates will support wind potential aside from a
modest MCV-related flow enhancement. A brief tornado could also
occur, although thunderstorm wind damage is most probable.

...West Texas/Southern High Plains...
Relatively weak mid-level flow and an ill-defined surface pattern
aptly characterize the severe-potential setup for later today into
the evening across this region. Residual low-level moisture and
steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference the 12 UTC Midland, TX raob;
8.7 deg C/km) in combination with strong heating will result in
moderate instability developing by mid-late afternoon, stronger with
southward extent across the Texas South Plains into southwest Texas.
At least widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from
near the Colorado/Panhandles border region southward into the
Edwards Plateau. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be
the primary severe hazards. A gradual clustering is expected during
the evening before this activity diminishes by late evening.

...Georgia/South Carolina...
A weak mid-level disturbance will move east-northeastward today.
Ahead of it, adequate heating of a moist boundary layer will yield
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by early afternoon and scattered
showers/thunderstorms are forecast. Deep-layer shear will support
some multicellular organization in the form of a few thunderstorm
clusters. The stronger water-loaded downdrafts will potentially
yield a localized wind-damage risk during the afternoon before this
threat wanes by early evening.

...Central High Plains...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon
within a belt of stronger cyclonic mid-level flow associated with a
north-central U.S. larger-scale mid-level trough. The 30-40 kt
500-mb flow and steepened surface to 400-mb lapse rates may support
a couple of locally stronger thunderstorms late this afternoon
through early evening. Locally severe hail/wind will be the threats
with these storms.

...Ohio...
A couple of rotating storms could develop regionally this afternoon
within a belt of residually strong low-level flow. A brief/low-end
tornado threat may exist.


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SPC May 23, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible today mainly across the Lower
Mississippi Valley and parts of West Texas. Other more isolated
severe storms are possible in portions of the Southeast, Ohio, and
the central High Plains.

...Lower Mississippi Valley...
An ongoing semi-well-organized cluster of storms appears to be aided
by an MCV, and will likely continue east-northeastward today across
the ArkLaMiss and broader parts of Mississippi, to the north of more
extensive weaker convection closer to the coast in southern
Louisiana. Ample heating ahead of the cluster and steepening
low-level lapse rates will support wind potential aside from a
modest MCV-related flow enhancement. A brief tornado could also
occur, although thunderstorm wind damage is most probable.

...West Texas/Southern High Plains...
Relatively weak mid-level flow and an ill-defined surface pattern
aptly characterize the severe-potential setup for later today into
the evening across this region. Residual low-level moisture and
steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference the 12 UTC Midland, TX raob;
8.7 deg C/km) in combination with strong heating will result in
moderate instability developing by mid-late afternoon, stronger with
southward extent across the Texas South Plains into southwest Texas.
At least widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from
near the Colorado/Panhandles border region southward into the
Edwards Plateau. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be
the primary severe hazards. A gradual clustering is expected during
the evening before this activity diminishes by late evening.

...Georgia/South Carolina...
A weak mid-level disturbance will move east-northeastward today.
Ahead of it, adequate heating of a moist boundary layer will yield
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by early afternoon and scattered
showers/thunderstorms are forecast. Deep-layer shear will support
some multicellular organization in the form of a few thunderstorm
clusters. The stronger water-loaded downdrafts will potentially
yield a localized wind-damage risk during the afternoon before this
threat wanes by early evening.

...Central High Plains...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon
within a belt of stronger cyclonic mid-level flow associated with a
north-central U.S. larger-scale mid-level trough. The 30-40 kt
500-mb flow and steepened surface to 400-mb lapse rates may support
a couple of locally stronger thunderstorms late this afternoon
through early evening. Locally severe hail/wind will be the threats
with these storms.

...Ohio...
A couple of rotating storms could develop regionally this afternoon
within a belt of residually strong low-level flow. A brief/low-end
tornado threat may exist.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 05/23/2026


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SPC May 23, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF COAST...GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today across the lower
Mississippi Valley and into parts of Texas. Other isolated severe
storms are possible in portions of the Southeast, Ohio, and the
central High Plains.

...Southern High Plains...
Weak mid-level flow and an ill-defined surface pattern aptly
characterize the severe-potential setup for later today into the
evening across this region. Residual low-level moisture and steep
700-500 mb lapse rates (reference the 12 UTC Midland, TX raob; 8.7
deg C/km) in combination with strong heating will result in moderate
instability developing by mid-late afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop from near the CO/OK-TX
Panhandles border region southward into the Edwards Plateau.
Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be the primary severe
hazards with the stronger storms. Some clustering is expected
during the evening before this activity diminishes by late evening.

...South-central and Southeast Texas/Southern Louisiana...
In the coastal areas of the western and central Gulf, very moist air
will be in place. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will
contribute to moderate instability by midday. Thunderstorms will
form along sea breeze boundaries during the early to mid afternoon.
A few severe wind gusts and a brief tornado will be possible.
Farther north over the Ark-La-Miss, some heating ahead of a
north-south band of showers/thunderstorms associated with an MCV
over OK, will contribute to a marginally supportive wind-damage
risk. Have expanded low-wind probabilities to account for
observational trends of a semi-organized band of storms continuing
east into the Ark-La-Miss during peak heating.

...Georgia/South Carolina...
A weak mid-level disturbance over MS/AL this morning will move
east-northeastward today. Adequate heating of a moist boundary
layer will yield 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by early afternoon and
scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast. Deep-layer shear will
support some multicellular organization in the form of a few
thunderstorm clusters. The stronger water-loaded downdrafts will
potentially yield a localized wind-damage risk during the afternoon
before this threat wanes by early evening.

...Central High Plains...
Latest model guidance shows isolated thunderstorms developing late
this afternoon within a belt of stronger cyclonic mid-level flow
associated with a north-central U.S. larger-scale mid-level trough.
The 30-40 kt 500-mb flow and steepened surface to 400-mb lapse rates
may support a couple of locally stronger thunderstorms to develop
towards early evening. Locally severe hail/wind will be the threat
with these storms.

...Ohio...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the Ohio Valley
and lower Great Lakes today. At the surface, an axis of low-level
moisture will be located from eastern Kentucky into central and
northern Ohio, where dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s F. As
instability increases during the day, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop and move northeastward across the instability
corridor. RAP forecast soundings in central Ohio at 21Z have 0-6 km
shear near 30 knots with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 150
m2/s2. This could be enough for an isolated tornado threat.

..Smith/Weinman.. 05/23/2026


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