Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Valid 011300Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorm potential is low today, but some
strong storms with gusty winds could occur across parts of Kansas
southward into central and southern Texas.
...Southern/central/northeast Texas to southeast Oklahoma...
Extensive convection stretches from eastern Oklahoma into north
Texas and southwestward into the Texas Hill County and Edwards
Plateau, with a few stronger convective elements ongoing. This
general theme will continue with a gradual net eastward shift of
semi-continuous precipitation through the day, supported by
low-level warm advection ahead of a surface low and cold front.
Ongoing convection and preceding cloud cover across the warm sector
will limit heating/destabilization with lapse rates remaining poor,
while low-level winds are expected to steadily weaken during the
day. While occasional gusty winds could accompany thunderstorms
today, the overall severe potential should remain low, with
repetitive/locally heavy rainfall the main concern.
...Southern Kansas/Texas Panhandle and western/northern Oklahoma...
In closer proximity to the mid-level low, locally stronger heating
may occur coincident with cloud breaks in vicinity of a weakening
surface wave and the south/southeastward-spreading front and
westward-extending surface trough. Sufficient
heating/destabilization could allow for some stronger updrafts into
this afternoon, although deep-layer winds will be weakening over
time. Aside from some possibility for a few stronger storms with
gusty winds/small hail, there may be some funnel potential in
vicinity of the aforementioned boundaries given sufficient low-level
CAPE/ambient vorticity. That said, mid-level temperatures/lapse
rates are not optimal and the cold front will become more southward
progressive later in the day, lessening any such potential.
..Guyer/Bentley.. 10/01/2026
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